Could John Brown be Released Next Off-Season?

[Halloween Land]

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

[Hebert19]

Restructure is my guess. 

[Royale with Cheese]

I've thought about it but I think they want to keep the continuity.  I  can honestly see Morse being released....does he have a big dead cap hit?

[Solomon Grundy]

2 minutes ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

No. The idea is having the best talent surrounding Josh Allen. Having Smoke on the field does that

[foreboding]

I hope not.

[Codyny13]

I’m not a fan of releasing good players that help the team. He’s had a rough season with injuries, but he’s not injury prone. Only way this happens is the covid affected salary cap takes a severe dump.

[Punching Bag]

Could yes.  Could means possibility.  An mini-asteroid COULD hit Fixborough stadium forcing P*ts to play one of their games in Buffalo.

 

Other than possibility it is just idle speculation.

[Brennan Huff]

I think it’s definitely possible. Going to have to free up some money somewhere. As it stands right now we’ll have 29 million committed to Diggs, Brown, and Beasley next season with some big extensions coming quick. 

[Halloween Land]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I've thought about it but I think they want to keep the continuity.  I  can honestly see Morse being released....does he have a big dead cap hit?

Morse's salary next year is $10,375,000 with a dead cap of $5,500,000. 2022 would be more favorable to release him with a $2,750,000 dead cap hit. 

[JohnNord]

It’s a possibility but way too early to tell.  A lot depends on the cap, how Brown performs when he returns from injury,how Davis performs at WR 2, and where the Bills end up this postseason

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

We run enough 3 and 4 WR sets that neither Brown nor Davis has to keep the other one off the field.

[GoBills!]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I've thought about it but I think they want to keep the continuity.  I  can honestly see Morse being released....does he have a big dead cap hit?

5.5 in cap savings, he is a cap hit of 10.3 on the books, 2022 he is around a 2 million cap hit.

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

Would be surprised.

 

he and/or beasley are the type you get to keep with the rookie deal quarterback. You don’t get to pay 3 wrs forever but now is a great time with all of them being effective and a great match for each other. 
 

davis is perfect for reliable depth and allows either a high upside project or specialty player instead of struggling to find a 4th body that could be near full time to add if you cut brown 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

6 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Restructure is my guess. 

Agreed.

 

I don’t think Brown will break the bank, and he is critical and the team loves him. 

[thenorthremembers]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I've thought about it but I think they want to keep the continuity.  I  can honestly see Morse being released....does he have a big dead cap hit?

Been thinking the same thing recently.  If you designate if as a post June 1st cut he counts for 2.75 of dead cap for 2021 and 2022.    You end up saving 7.6 million in 2021, and 8.5 million in 2022.    Resign Feliciano to play center at a lower contract, and then draft a right tackle and right guard.   

 

On the Brown thing, you save 8.5 million by cutting him.   I can see him as a restructure, but its going to have to be a large pay cut for it to matter.  

 

[BITE ME]

Monday night was the first time I thought the Bills offense could function at an elite level without Brown.  Obviously a healthy Davis is better than an unhealthy Brown, but Brown is still a better receiver.  They will need a healthy Brown if they are to beat the elite teams in the playoffs. As for next year, we need to see what Davis does down the stretch.

Edited December 10, 2020 by FUTURIST

[dorquemada]

The O is better with Smoke on the field.  Let's stop acting like we have to save money at every turn, and Trust in Beane

[BITE ME]

1 minute ago, dorquemada said:

The O is better with Smoke on the field.  Let's stop acting like we have to save money at every turn, and Trust in Beane

 

Agreed, but he has to stay on the field. That is a lot of money for a receiver that can't stay on the field. He has dressed for 8 games this year and in 3 of those games he had 1 catch or no catches.  Insert other media

[Kwai San]

2 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

The O is better with Smoke on the field.  Let's stop acting like we have to save money at every turn, and Trust in Beane

 

Agree with this - The Bills don't need to nickel and dime their way to win games.  The current structure allows them to keep Smoke.  2022??  Different story then for sure.....then it is going to be nickel and dimes due to the JA contract.....even if he does offer up a homie town discount.....it is still gonna be a big huge hit.  Rightfully so.

 

Go BILLS!

[SCBills]

I think Davis has big time potential, but I'm not cutting John Brown after this year UNLESS they are planning on using his cap savings to help re-sign Feliciano, Williams & Milano, then draft a speed WR in the 1st Round.

 

This Offense is built around a solid OL, stud QB and 4 very good WR's.  The trade-off is average playmakers at RB & TE.  Can't have everything (unless you're KC apparently)..  4 good WR's is paramount to this Offense and allows us to still have 3, even when someone like Brown goes down for some games. 

[T master]

This is the best group of WR the Bills possibly could ever have had only time will tell and when a QB is comfortable with knowing his receivers body language the offenses game goes to another level and even given a possible coaching change they can transition better i believe due to that comfort .

 

I hope they do what ever they can with in reason to keep Smoke around when healthy dudes got it and give the rookies another year to learn from him . Next season they will have Hodgins back so he can learn by watching him as he learns the ropes then when Browns contract is done you have 2 hopefully long time replacements for him .

 

He's a Bills type player i hope they let him play out his contract .

[dorquemada]

4 minutes ago, FUTURIST said:

 

Agreed, but he has to stay on the field. That is a lot of money for a receiver that can't stay on the field. He has dressed for 8 games this year and in 3 of those games he had 1 catch or no catches.  Insert other media

 

Injuries happen.  Elite speed guys are maybe a little more fragile compared to more robust types, Watkins has same issues.  Otherwise though Brown is a proven entity and anyone we might draft is a crap shoot

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, FUTURIST said:

 

Agreed, but he has to stay on the field. That is a lot of money for a receiver that can't stay on the field. He has dressed for 8 games this year and in 3 of those games he had 1 catch or no catches.  Insert other media

 

I agree but it isn't like he is Watkins who seemingly misses several games every year...he has only been injured where he misses multiple games once in his career prior to this.  I think this is just one of those tricky things that kind of started with one thing and because he tried to compensate for that and keep playing it kind of affected his whole leg eventually.

 

Also, came across this where they predict injuries through algorithms and he was predicted as being fairly durable:

 

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/john-brown/6991

 

Compare him with Watkins:

 

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/sammy-watkins/6937

Edited December 10, 2020 by matter2003

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

I think Davis has big time potential, but I'm not cutting John Brown after this year UNLESS they are planning on using his cap savings to help re-sign Feliciano, Williams & Milano, then draft a speed WR in the 1st Round.

 

This Offense is built around a solid OL, stud QB and 4 very good WR's.  The trade-off is average playmakers at RB & TE.  Can't have everything (unless you're KC apparently)..  4 good WR's is paramount to this Offense and allows us to still have 3, even when someone like Brown goes down for some games. 

 

KC is in the last year of mahomes cheap deal.  There's a reason they're head and shoulders above the league.  After this year - it becomes the restructure game that the saints play.  Pick the guys you want to guarantee the next 3-5 years of contracts and fill in the rest with rookies and vet's who are available a month into free agency.  

[djp14150]

The team needs the speed receiver that Brown is.  Could he be replaced with a FA. It’s possible.  They could also restructure the contract.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

 

I agree but it isn't like he is Watkins who seemingly misses several games every year...he has only been injured where he misses multiple games once in his career prior to this.  I think this is just one of those tricky things that kind of started with one thing and because he tried to compensate for that and keep playing it kind of affected his whole leg eventually.

 

Also, came across this where they predict injuries through algorithms and he was predicted as being fairly durable:

 

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/john-brown/6991

 

Compare him with Watkins:

 

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/sammy-watkins/6937

 

I mean - we all saw where he got hurt this year.  It wasn't some non-contact hamstring or something.  He got blasted from behind, while catching a poorly thrown ball in a close game and landed awkwardly.  Worst part is it didn't even count.  

[Gregthekeg]

1 minute ago, dneveu said:

 

KC is in the last year of mahomes cheap deal.  There's a reason they're head and shoulders above the league.  After this year - it becomes the restructure game that the saints play.  Pick the guys you want to guarantee the next 3-5 years of contracts and fill in the rest with rookies and vet's who are available a month into free agency.  

Man, what an awesome problem to have after winning a superbowl. Sign me up!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

7 minutes ago, T master said:

This is the best group of WR the Bills possibly could ever have had only time will tell and when a QB is comfortable with knowing his receivers body language the offenses game goes to another level and even given a possible coaching change they can transition better i believe due to that comfort .

 

I hope they do what ever they can with in reason to keep Smoke around when healthy dudes got it and give the rookies another year to learn from him . Next season they will have Hodgins back so he can learn by watching him as he learns the ropes then when Browns contract is done you have 2 hopefully long time replacements for him .

 

He's a Bills type player i hope they let him play out his contract .

 

It's a business - year 1 he played to the contract, year 2 not so much.  He'll be 31 and its a 9m cap hit.  If you can reduce the cap charge, and tack on a void year or extend it?  maybe?  But if the cap truly is going down, thats a lot for your #2 WR when you have a rookie who's played well.  

[BITE ME]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

KC is in the last year of mahomes cheap deal.  There's a reason they're head and shoulders above the league.  After this year - it becomes the restructure game that the saints play.  Pick the guys you want to guarantee the next 3-5 years of contracts and fill in the rest with rookies and vet's who are available a month into free agency.  

 

This is 100% true. The Chiefs have a huge advantage, but it ends this year.  The Mahomes contract is going to be a problem for them. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Gregthekeg said:

Man, what an awesome problem to have after winning a superbowl. Sign me up!

 

I mean - saints have been doing it since they won a superbowl.  But you're hedging all your bets on a cap going up YoY - and it isn't this year... so they're currently like 90M above a 175M cap.  I don't even know where to begin: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints/

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, FUTURIST said:

 

This is 100% true. The Chiefs have a huge advantage, but it ends this year.  The Mahomes contract is going to be a problem for them. 

 

You mean he didn't give the Chiefs the "Patrick Price" discount like he gets from State Farm?? What a hypocrite!!

Edited December 10, 2020 by matter2003

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, FUTURIST said:

 

This is 100% true. The Chiefs have a huge advantage, but it ends this year.  The Mahomes contract is going to be a problem for them. 

 

If he continues to be this good you just keep replacing everyone around him at playmaker positions with players on rookie contracts.  Spend your money on the oline and defense.  Kelce probably has a couple more productive years, kick the cap hit down the line for hill too. 

[Freddie's Dead]

NFW.  John SmokeY Brown is integral to this offense.  It took many games for the offense to figure out what to do in his absence.  I can't wait to see the offense fly when he comes off IR.

[Gregthekeg]

3 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I mean - saints have been doing it since they won a superbowl.  But you're hedging all your bets on a cap going up YoY - and it isn't this year... so they're currently like 90M above a 175M cap.  I don't even know where to begin: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints/

If we get Drew like numbers out of Allen, again sign me up haha.  

[TroutDog]

27 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Would be surprised.

 

he and/or beasley are the type you get to keep with the rookie deal quarterback. You don’t get to pay 3 wrs forever but now is a great time with all of them being effective and a great match for each other. 
 

davis is perfect for reliable depth and allows either a high upside project or specialty player instead of struggling to find a 4th body that could be near full time to add if you cut brown 

KC does it...and pays Mahomes. Not disagreeing with you but where there’s a will there’s a way. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Restructure.  I listened to a podcast where they described how that could look. The market is not going to look good for a 31 yo receiver coming off injuries if the cap is lowered. They could extend him a year and guarantee a little more money in exchange for a lower cap hit both seasons. This would be a take it or leave it situation. Same thing for Vernon Butler and Q Jefferson.

[dma0034]

I doubt it. I only see it happening if the Bills draft a stud WR but they have other needs. I know his age is going to be working against him in a few years but there are few defenses that can stack up to Diggs-Beasley-Brown-Davis and not get burned.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

KC does it...and pays Mahomes. Not disagreeing with you but where there’s a will there’s a way. 

 

They made watkins take a paycut this season to be fair.  They'll lose watkins/robinson this offseason and replace them with hardman/pringle.  Maybe they draft someone too.  

3 minutes ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Restructure.  I listened to a podcast where they described how that could look. The market is not going to look good for a 31 yo receiver coming off injuries if the cap is lowered. They could extend him a year and guarantee a little more money in exchange for a lower cap hit both seasons. This would be a take it or leave it situation. Same thing for Vernon Butler and Q Jefferson.

 

Yeah - look at hockey's free agency and you'll see agents being like... yes - take the deal!  There's still some good free agents out there and no one is willing to pay them close to what theyre asking for (Hoffman, Duclair, Athanasiou, Granlund, and Vatanen are the big ones)

Edited December 10, 2020 by dneveu

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

21 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

Agree with this - The Bills don't need to nickel and dime their way to win games.  The current structure allows them to keep Smoke.  2022??  Different story then for sure.....then it is going to be nickel and dimes due to the JA contract.....even if he does offer up a homie town discount.....it is still gonna be a big huge hit.  Rightfully so.

 

Go BILLS!

Ralph and Russ aren't here to trip over $100 bills to pick up nickels.  If money is that tight, cut the budget to that bunch that makes the 'uniform colour choice' videos. 🤨

*

[Magox]

I trust in Beane and they know the salary cap picture much better than anyone on this board.  With that said, I wouldn't be happy with it because we are a better team with Smoke on the field but if that is what they decided to do then I would trust their process.