Chris Simms: The Bills are a perfect matchup for the Pats right now. Can't run, can't stop the run.

[RichRiderBills]

Stopping the run against teams with wide open offenses is IMO the Bills weakness. Even in the bad weather, KC and Mahomes and the weapons they have needed to be respected.

 

We've seen McD Ds struggle versus this template often. The Pats are not that team, and neither is Cam. Worse, with the conditions turnovers may be a factor. They just don't have the talent to execute that notion. 

 

Then there is stopping Allen and the Bills O...which has advanced since we last faced a better Pats D and moved the ball well.

 

Get behind to this Bills team, could get in trouble.

[benderbender]

You wouldn’t be on this forum if you had no hope. There’s a type: puts up a bristly front, despises optimism, says pessimistic things constantly, secretly happy when things turn out well but can’t show it. Looks like this:

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by benderbender

[Richard Noggin]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Fill the box and make Newton try and beat you with his arm. 

 

There's a joke in here somewhere...

[WideNine]

The 49ers chewed up NE with their 21 personnel - basically two backs and Kittle as the TE. They can either use a back as a lead blocker or as misdirection to attack weak gaps, or as extra blockers where Kittle is a mismatch.

 

I think in this regard our offense has very little practice executing this alignment, in fact we probably spend most of our snaps in an empty-set (I have not looked that up - just a gut feeling). Not only are we not running the ball when we go empty, we are not even threatening to run the ball so we cannot leverage any play-action. Then on early downs when we go with a 11 or 12 personnel look we signal to teams to load the box and play the run.

 

Earlier this year when teams were committed to playing man against our receivers then that empty look helped Allen see the field and we were able to create a lot of confusion and rub plays with crossing routes. We were chewing up the field and scoring in bunches. I know folks hate that ground and pound philosophy, but as Chris alluded to NE packs the box with their coverage personnel and those guys are at a disadvantage against blockers and runners. Bill loads the box to get teams to abandon the run... it is a bluff unless he swaps out personnel.

 

This is not a great match-up for the offensive game plans that Daboll has cooked up the past few seasons and how poorly our offensive line has been run-blocking. I know there are folks on this board that see a weak and vulnerable NE team, but they are actually well matched against the things our team is weak at executing.... their run vs our stopping the run, their mobile QB vs our containing a mobile QB, our ability and commitment to running the ball vs throwing against zone looks, etc...

 

I want the Bills to win this one, but the sky is not falling if the chips do not fall our way, but I am hopeful that our coaching staff recognizes that they will need to get this team to play out of character to create a better match-up against NE.

 

 

 

[Gen2]

But is it that we CAN'T run .... or is it we WON'T run. We only had one carry by someone not named Josh Allen the entire first half of last week. Don't get me wrong I think designated runs and scrambles are an important and effective part of Allen's game, but a stat line something like 3 designated runs by your QB, 1 run by your WR, and 1 run by your RB for an entire half sounds kind of goofy to me. (that stat line may not be exactly right other than the 1 run by Motor, I'm going off memory here and I'm too damn lazy to look it up)

[zow2]

If Allen runs much this week he's gonna get crushed.  The Patriots always rough him up.  He needs to be careful.

[Pokebball]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

The Pats - Bills content starts around 42:00.

 

Some excerpts:

 

Burmeister: What's going on with Cam Newton?

 

Simms: Well, he's off. No doubt about that.

 

Simms argues that the Pats last week were a terrible matchup against the Niners, as the Niners are "a run-first-centric team" and Shanahan's the run genius of football. And the Patriots on defense are built to stop passing offenses. He argues Belichick tries to scare you out of runs by packing the box, but then backs away, and some of the eight guys in the box are littler guys than are usually up there and wouldn't be especially effective against the run.

 

Simms: "What you've got to do is go, ' Oh, OK, we're outnumbered in the box, so what, that guy's 195 pounds, that guy's 205 pounds, our right guard can block both of them with his right arm.' " And Shanahan stuck with the run.

 

Asked what he thought were the Pats biggest offensive problems he said offensive line injuries and post-COVID Cam hasn't been the same after missing three weeks of football. They both thought his motion is off right now. But what made me a bit worried is something Simms said about that.

 

Simms:  "[Newton] gets into this almost once a year his whole career. ... where his front shoulder gets way high in the air."

 

Goes on to say (quite a bit later) that Newton has had this problem many times before for a week or two or three and then either he or a coach figures it out and corrects it and he starts playing better again.

 

... and ...

 

Simms: "And now they've got Buffalo this week, and that's the perfect team for them. Again, matchups. ... The Bills can't stop the run and they can't run the ball, so they have to throw it every play. Perfect for New England. So don't be shocked if New England upset Buffalo this week."

 

 

 

And later, his preview of the game:

 

 

 

He and Florio both pick the Pats, saying the Bills strength is passing and the Pats strength is stopping the pass, and that on offense the Pats strength is running while the Bills weakness is stopping the run.

 

Makes some sense.

 

If they're right, we'd better do a good job in the run game on both sides of the ball. Hopefully Feliciano's return will make a real difference.

 

 

 

Whattya think?

I think they're spot on.  But Simms said something that I think is important to hear.  He said that as long as the game stays close, if favors NE.  We need to get out early and often and get up a couple of scores.  Then it favors us.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

Stopping the run against teams with wide open offenses is IMO the Bills weakness. Even in the bad weather, KC and Mahomes and the weapons they have needed to be respected.

 

We've seen McD Ds struggle versus this template often. The Pats are not that team, and neither is Cam. Worse, with the conditions turnovers may be a factor. They just don't have the talent to execute that notion. 

 

Then there is stopping Allen and the Bills O...which has advanced since we last faced a better Pats D and moved the ball well.

 

Get behind to this Bills team, could get in trouble.

Was just gonna say this...when we can't load up the box we struggle making plays against the run because our linebackers have been historically horrendous 🤣  id have to rewatch the Tennessee game which i really don't want to do but Henry really didn't do much because we played with a safety in the box id assume 

[Nihilarian]

The first four games of the 2020 season the Bills offense was #4 overall because of Allen's passing. The Bills defense was 27th or so and that was against the pass. 

 

Currently the defense picked it up and are 15th overall and 21st against the run. The Bills offense is 20th in points, 13th in yards, 6th in passing yards, 5th in passing TDs.

 

 

New England defense is 12th in points allowed, 17th in yards allowed, #1 in pass attempts against them. 10th against the pass. 12 in pass TDs. The Patriot offense is 29th in scoring points, 24th in yards, #3 in rushing attempts, #4 in rushing yards, #5 in rushing TDs. 

 

 

The Buffalo Bills should crush this one dimensional Patriots team simply by stacking the box and daring Cam Newton to throw. Who has looked out of sorts the last games. Run blitz and knock the NW receivers / backs off their routes at the LoS. Spy Newton and it should be game over fast. That stat of the Patriots receivers getting only 13% separation is so telling. 

 

No Edelman and that story of Gilmore "tweeking" his knee might be an excuse when Diggs jukes him out of his cleats on Sunday. 

 

I don't care what anyone else says, this is a "must win" game for Buffalo as they face the Seahawks, Cardinals next and after the BYE, Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, Broncos, Patriots, Dolphins. If the Bills want to keep a lead in the division against Miami and take the division they need this win. If McD ever wants to beat Bill Belichick, now is the time. A sweep would be even better. 

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

We can't run or we don't try to run that much?

if can run then sure missed it vs TN

[RichRiderBills]

No Gilmore ...no chance...for Pats.

[HOUSE]

You know, you got to be an idiot to plug New England they way they are playing lately. But, like an idiot I watched this video

So, I guess Chris Simms won this time

 

 

 

..

Edited October 30, 2020 by HOUSE

[hondo in seattle]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Simms: "And now they've got Buffalo this week, and that's the perfect team for them. Again, matchups. ... The Bills can't stop the run and they can't run the ball, so they have to throw it every play. Perfect for New England. So don't be shocked if New England upset Buffalo this week."

 

 

Whattya think?

 

 

I generally like Simms but this is so simplistic.  So let me respond with simplistic counter arguments.

 

The Bills will have a balanced attack this game this Sunday.  The Bills passing attack is one of the most prolific in the NFL this year.  And against the Pats, they'll finally find success on the ground because the Pats run defense is putrid (6th worst in the NFL).    Expect the Bills to be effective on the ground as well as in the air.  

 

At the same time, the Patriots offense will remain one-dimensional.   The Pats dysfunctional, 28th ranked passing attack isn't likely to do much harm.  So Frazier and the Bills D will be able to focus almost entirely on the run.  

 

Statistically speaking, the Bills are clearly a better team than the Pats.   At this point in the season, the Bills have gained more yards/game, given up fewer yards/game, achieved a better point differential, and found more ways to win.  

 

Advantage: Bills.  

 

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by hondo in seattle

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, benderbender said:

You wouldn’t be on this forum if you had no hope. There’s a type: puts up a bristly front, despises optimism, says pessimistic things constantly, secretly happy when things turn out well but can’t show it. Looks like this:

 

 

This is great.  It could be a self-portrait of a dozen or so here.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Gen2 said:

But is it that we CAN'T run .... or is it we WON'T run. We only had one carry by someone not named Josh Allen the entire first half of last week. Don't get me wrong I think designated runs and scrambles are an important and effective part of Allen's game, but a stat line something like 3 designated runs by your QB, 1 run by your WR, and 1 run by your RB for an entire half sounds kind of goofy to me. (that stat line may not be exactly right other than the 1 run by Motor, I'm going off memory here and I'm too damn lazy to look it up)

 

We can't run.  We've tried.  Against LV, Tenn, and KC Motor had 18, 11, and 10 carries and averaged 3.1, 2.3, and 3.2 YPC.

Zach Moss did even worse against KC.

 

The Jets were a bit of a "get well game" for our running, but only a bit...76 yds between 2 backs.  But 55% of the yards from someone not named Allen was still an improvement.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Hes not wrong

 

But i think we win

 

 

[Nitro]

Stack the box and dare Newton to pass.  I think the Bills will do this often.  NE is successful running and have a weak receiving corps.  It will be a tough game for the Bills.

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

I generally like Simms but this is so simplistic.  So let me respond with simplistic counter arguments.

 

The Bills will have a balanced attack this game this Sunday.  The Bills passing attack is one of the most prolific in the NFL this year.  And against the Pats, they'll finally find success on the ground because the Pats run defense is putrid (6th worst in the NFL).    Expect the Bills to be effective on the ground as well as in the air.  

 

At the same time, the Patriots offense will remain one-dimensional.   The Pats dysfunctional, 28th ranked passing attack isn't likely to do much harm.  So Frazier and the Bills D will be able to focus almost entirely on the run.  

 

Statistically speaking, the Bills are clearly a better team than the Pats.   At this point in the season, the Bills have gained more yards/game, given up fewer yards/game, achieved a better point differential, and found more ways to win.  

 

Advantage: Bills.  

 

 

Secret weapon for the Bills offense will be Moss.  He has a running style that wears down a defense

[downunderbill]

10 hours ago, Kwai San said:

Too much Hope crap.

 

Get the job done Bills! 

 

Cold Beastly and Josh.....a marriage made in underneath history......git er done!!

 

Yep and a few Allen runs early on and every now and then to make em worry about that all game.

[Turk71]

  I think the Bills can stop the run if that is their game plan. I'm hoping that is what we see; stop the run, contain and pressure Cam. 

  I think the Bills are gonna stomp these guys.

[Matt_In_NH]

Don’t run and can’t run are different things. 

[MPT]

10 hours ago, uticaclub said:

Henry was kept in check because the Titans didn't need their best player to win the game

 

That's what I thought. I'm sure Vrabel anticipated us committing to run defense and said "fine, we'll run just enough to keep you committed and then throw it all over you." 

 

I don't think the Patriots can pull off the same thing though, especially if White, Wallace, and Milano are healthy.

[Putin]

13 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I have been saying for over a week that this is a terrible matchup for the Bills. Buffalo might win - they are better - but matchup-wise this is a nightmare.

Who are exactly  are  you talking about that are the matchup nightmare for us ? 
White , Burkhead ? I’m not sure I know who else is soooo scary on that offense 
 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Putin

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, WideNine said:

The 49ers chewed up NE with their 21 personnel - basically two backs and Kittle as the TE. They can either use a back as a lead blocker or as misdirection to attack weak gaps, or as extra blockers where Kittle is a mismatch.

 

I think in this regard our offense has very little practice executing this alignment, in fact we probably spend most of our snaps in an empty-set (I have not looked that up - just a gut feeling).

 

This would be a great example of why you shouldn't trust your gut feelings.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

 

Bills run an empty set (no running back) less than 3% of the time.  0-0 2% (7); 0-1 0% (1), 0-2 never

The majority of the time (75%) the Bills run a 1-1: 1 back, 1 TE, 3 WR

Second most common (18%): 1-0; 1 back, no TE, 4 WR

 

You are correct, however, that the Bills have never run 2-1 personnel.

 

Quote

Not only are we not running the ball when we go empty, we are not even threatening to run the ball so we cannot leverage any play-action.

 

So actually, that last might be wrong.  Someone did a very interesting piece on how the Bills were using the empty set to execute RPOs against the Jets.  Hmmm, Cover-1?

I'll look for it.  The point made was that the way the Bills are using it, short passes such as bubble-screens are essentially an extension of the run game.  Also, an "empty set" isn't necessarily an empty set because Allen can run.  Check it out, it's "premium content" but there's a free 1 day trial, I think you'll find it interesting.

 

https://www.cover1.net/bills-offensive-coordinator-brian-daboll-giving-josh-allen-more-answers/

 

I would hope the Bills would not use 21 personnel, because they don't have the hosses for it.  But there may be other ways to achieve the same goal.

 

21 minutes ago, Putin said:

Who are exactly  are  you talking about that are the matchup nightmare for us ? 
White , Burkhead ? I’m not sure I know who else is soooo scary on that offense 
 

 

I think he's probably speaking in generalized terms ie:

 

Patriots great running  | Bills crappy run D, may struggle to stop

 

Bills great passing | Mother Nature is a B word

 

Patriots poor run D | Bills crappy running game, may still struggle to run

 

 

[unclepete]

I agree with his statement. Add the bad weather to the mix and this could spell bad news for us. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I'm preparing for the worst. 

 

Everyone is crapping on the Patriots. Would make complete sense for them to put up 300 rushing yards on us. 

[WideNine]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This would be a great example of why you shouldn't trust your gut feelings.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

 

Bills run an empty set (no running back) less than 3% of the time.  0-0 2% (7); 0-1 0% (1), 0-2 never

The majority of the time (75%) the Bills run a 1-1: 1 back, 1 TE, 3 WR

Second most common (18%): 1-0; 1 back, no TE, 4 WR

 

You are correct, however, that the Bills have never run 2-1 personnel.

 

 

So actually, that last might be wrong.  Someone did a very interesting piece on how the Bills were using the empty set to execute RPOs against the Jets.  Hmmm, Cover-1?

I'll look for it.  The point made was that the way the Bills are using it, short passes such as bubble-screens are essentially an extension of the run game.  Also, an "empty set" isn't necessarily an empty set because Allen can run.  Check it out, it's "premium content" but there's a free 1 day trial, I think you'll find it interesting.

 

https://www.cover1.net/bills-offensive-coordinator-brian-daboll-giving-josh-allen-more-answers/

 

I would hope the Bills would not use 21 personnel, because they don't have the hosses for it.  But there may be other ways to achieve the same goal.

 

 

I think he's probably speaking in generalized terms ie:

 

Patriots great running  | Bills crappy run D, may struggle to stop

 

Bills great passing | Mother Nature is a B word

 

Patriots poor run D | Bills crappy running game, may still struggle to run

 

 

 

Thanks Hapless, I will definitely check that out.

 

I never quite got that bubble screen being an extension of running game  - more a lateral, but understand that it's a common saying. 

 

I guess the receiver is behind the LOS and it relies on RAC much like a toss sweep...

 

Either way, I think the bubble was a good option with teams playing off our receivers and dropping into zones.

 

If we keep a back in the backfiekd the bubble also helps keep teams from loading the box against the run as they have to defend sideline to sideline. The downside is that they are tough touch-throws for Allen like most screen throws can be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, MPT said:

 

That's what I thought. I'm sure Vrabel anticipated us committing to run defense and said "fine, we'll run just enough to keep you committed and then throw it all over you." 

 

I don't think the Patriots can pull off the same thing though, especially if White, Wallace, and Milano are healthy.

 

Tennessee ran 34 times to 28 pass attempts.  Even considering that 4 of those rushes were Tannehill and likely to be scrambles, that's still pretty much even.

 

Derrick Henry ran 19 times for 57 yds, average of 3 ypc.  That was a season low for Henry, but not that much lower than 3 other games, and for another back/team, pretty good number of carries.  McCoy in his workhorse days with Philly/Buffalo averaged 14-20 carries/game.  So 30-34 carries ain't exactly minimalist in the run game.  (McNichols had 9)

 

4 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Thanks Hapless, I will definitely check that out.

 

I never quite got that bubble screen being an extension of running game  - more a lateral, but understand that it's a common saying. 

 

I guess the receiver is behind the LOS and it relies on RAC much like a toss sweep...

 

Either way, I think the bubble was a good option with teams playing off our receivers and dropping into zones.

 

If we keep a back in the backfiekd the bubble also helps keep teams from loading the box against the run as they have to defend sideline to sideline. The downside is that they are tough touch-throws for Allen like most screen throws can be.

 

Against the Jets, they were using Beas as the target.  Read the article - good read - one of the points made was that they have to defend against Allen running.  Once they commit to defending against him, he passes.

[BillsFan692]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Tennessee ran 34 times to 28 pass attempts.  Even considering that 4 of those rushes were Tannehill and likely to be scrambles, that's still pretty much even.

 

Derrick Henry ran 19 times for 57 yds, average of 3 ypc.  That was a season low for Henry, but not that much lower than 3 other games, and for another back/team, pretty good number of carries.  McCoy in his workhorse days with Philly/Buffalo averaged 14-20 carries/game.  So 30-34 carries ain't exactly minimalist in the run game.  (McNichols had 9)

 

 

Against the Jets, they were using Beas as the target.  Read the article - good read - one of the points made was that they have to defend against Allen running.  Once they commit to defending against him, he passes.

The bills shut down henry but gave TN everything else they wanted. Then they shut down mahommes but gave KC everything else they wanted.

 

Seems coaching related to me. Like game strategy decisions. Im no NFL coach but I think more balance and keeping the other team guessing is better approach then selling out one way or the other.

 

What am I missing?

[Big Blitz]

Not if Gilmore is out.

 

And yes, I just might start Harris in fantasy.  Weather just says NE will be trying to run until....well they can't.  No Edelman.  Trash WRs.  

 

Harris goes for 100 and a TD.  

 

Bills still win 17-13.  

Edited October 31, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, MPT said:

 

That's what I thought. I'm sure Vrabel anticipated us committing to run defense and said "fine, we'll run just enough to keep you committed and then throw it all over you." 

 

I don't think the Patriots can pull off the same thing though, especially if White, Wallace, and Milano are healthy.

 

 

It could come down to that question.

 

But few people or nobody has responded to the other section of the interview I transcribed about Newton's consistent mechanical problems and fixes.

 

Simms says that Cam has had the same sort of mechanical issues he's having now many times during his career for a game or two or three. But that then he's consistently been able to quickly fix the problem when it's addressed and get back to his regular mechanics and his regular performance level.

 

If that happens and he is back to normal next week, we won't be able to sell out to stop the run, confident that Cam can't beat us.

[oldmanfan]

53 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It could come down to that question.

 

But few people or nobody has responded to the other section of the interview I transcribed about Newton's consistent mechanical problems and fixes.

 

Simms says that Cam has had the same sort of mechanical issues he's having now many times during his career for a game or two or three. But that then he's consistently been able to quickly fix the problem when it's addressed and get back to his regular mechanics and his regular performance level.

 

If that happens and he is back to normal next week, we won't be able to sell out to stop the run, confident that Cam can't beat us.

He doesn’t have receivers to throw to.  And it may be a tough day for passing with the winds.  And he has struggled.

 

If it were Belichick coaching for us, he’d take away the thing the Pats do well -running- and force Newton to prove he can beat you with his arm.  I expect McD and Frazier to do the same.  

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This would be a great example of why you shouldn't trust your gut feelings.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

 

Bills run an empty set (no running back) less than 3% of the time.  0-0 2% (7); 0-1 0% (1), 0-2 never

The majority of the time (75%) the Bills run a 1-1: 1 back, 1 TE, 3 WR

Second most common (18%): 1-0; 1 back, no TE, 4 WR

 

You are correct, however, that the Bills have never run 2-1 personnel.

 

While they have not run 2-1 personnel in those early games they did motion Knox into the backfield as a sort of H-back with Singletary a bit. They haven't done it with any of the other tight ends that I have seen so they must think there is something specific in Knox's skillset.

[machine gun kelly]

Sal made a good point yesterday in that we have been able for the most part to take the opposing offense best thing away like Henry, allowing the run to keep Mahomes from killing us in the air, but he said we’re just not good enough this year to take care of everything. The morning guys on WGR made the point that we were going to most likely at all costs stop the run game as Cam has no one to throw to so for the, to win, they have to be able to do it in the air.  That makes a great deal of sense to me, and they discussed how we shouldn’t change what put us at 5-2 which is 11, or 14 personnel.  To me it’s simply not changing what we do , but executing like we did in the first four games.  Their secondary is old.  We are not built like the 49ers so it’s a waste to try and execute on something we haven’t done.  We don’t have the personnel for 21, 12, or 13 personnel.  

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

He doesn’t have receivers to throw to.  And it may be a tough day for passing with the winds.  And he has struggled.

 

If it were Belichick coaching for us, he’d take away the thing the Pats do well -running- and force Newton to prove he can beat you with his arm.  I expect McD and Frazier to do the same.  

 

 

If he doesn't have the receivers to throw to, how come he looked very good throwing the ball for the first two or three games. 

 

I certainly agree it's big that Edelman is out. But Harry isn't bad, the backs catch well and the run game makes it hard to defend the pass game.

 

I agree with you that that's likely to be our defensive approach. I hope it works. I'm more nervous than many on here appear to be.

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If he doesn't have the receivers to throw to, how come he looked very good throwing the ball for the first two or three games. 

 

I certainly agree it's big that Edelman is out. But Harry isn't bad, the backs catch well and the run game makes it hard to defend the pass game.

 

I agree with you that that's likely to be our defensive approach. I hope it works. I'm more nervous than many on here appear to be.

Edelman is out.  Harry is out.  His TEs are out.  He had them his first several games.  Come on.

 

Sometimes it amuses me how paranoid we get.  They will force Newton to show he can perform; he has struggled.  Why assume he’s all of a sudden going to discover things?  We’ll make him show he can, much like Belichick will probably make us show we can run the ball.  It will be an interesting chess match.

 

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

I generally like Simms but this is so simplistic.  So let me respond with simplistic counter arguments.

 

The Bills will have a balanced attack this game this Sunday.  The Bills passing attack is one of the most prolific in the NFL this year.  And against the Pats, they'll finally find success on the ground because the Pats run defense is putrid (6th worst in the NFL).    Expect the Bills to be effective on the ground as well as in the air.  

 

At the same time, the Patriots offense will remain one-dimensional.   The Pats dysfunctional, 28th ranked passing attack isn't likely to do much harm.  So Frazier and the Bills D will be able to focus almost entirely on the run.  

 

Statistically speaking, the Bills are clearly a better team than the Pats.   At this point in the season, the Bills have gained more yards/game, given up fewer yards/game, achieved a better point differential, and found more ways to win.  

 

Advantage: Bills.  

 

 

 

 

Yes, picking two sentences, fair enough, it's simplistic. But that wasn't all he said. In the first video he talked for 6 or 7 minutes about this game, making a lot of great points. 

 

Also, the idea that because the Pats run defense sucks we'll be able to run with it is hopeful but doesn't make a lot of sense. The Chiefs are allowing 4.9 YPA this year and the Fins 5.0. Those two teams suck against the run yet we went 23 for 84 against KC and 23 for 112 against Miami, both figures well below what the defenses average, and in neither game did we look especially good running it.

 

I hope you're right but I don't find that argument convincing. 

 

IMO it'll come down to how well Cam throws. I think the Bills will do much as they have recently on offense passing, a lot of yards but without a ton of points, being forced to go with the shorter game and finding it a bit frustrating. If that's how it looks, I think the Pats will have a great chance. If the Bills can instead punch in a few TDs this time, we'll win going away. My guess is we'll find that difficult, but if Brown is back to his normal level of performance, my confidence will definitely improve.

 

And that low-scoring game that is my guess, will put it in Cam's hands, I think. I'm worried he'll have a better game. Hopefully not.

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While they have not run 2-1 personnel in those early games they did motion Knox into the backfield as a sort of H-back with Singletary a bit. They haven't done it with any of the other tight ends that I have seen so they must think there is something specific in Knox's skillset.

 

I'm pretty sure I saw Kroft in that position vs. the Jets.  Though it may have been a 0-1set.

 

7 hours ago, BillsFan692 said:

The bills shut down henry but gave TN everything else they wanted. Then they shut down mahommes but gave KC everything else they wanted.

 

Seems coaching related to me. Like game strategy decisions. Im no NFL coach but I think more balance and keeping the other team guessing is better approach then selling out one way or the other.

 

What am I missing?

 

It's more what the Bills were missing on defense - healthy personnel that would allow them to execute their game plan better: contain the QB and play man on the back.  No White (or hampered vs. KC), no Wallace (takes abuse but better than the alternatives), no Milano, injured Edmunds.

 

Deciding to do a pre-season DT position evaluation at DL probably didn't help.

 

In retrospect, I thought Simms had a good point that forcing KC into a ball-control grind it out offense that kept the ball away from us might not have been the best move.  That said, our offense wasn't keeping the ball and KC may have decided to do that anyway.

 

[Scott7975]

20 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If he doesn't have the receivers to throw to, how come he looked very good throwing the ball for the first two or three games. 

 

I certainly agree it's big that Edelman is out. But Harry isn't bad, the backs catch well and the run game makes it hard to defend the pass game.

 

I agree with you that that's likely to be our defensive approach. I hope it works. I'm more nervous than many on here appear to be.

First he is missing those players this week. Second, did he really look all that good the first few weeks? In the first three games combined he threw for 2 TDs and 2 ints. Two of those games he passed for 162 yards or less. The third game he had a lot of yards but against a defense that might be worse than ours. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just another viewpoint

 

Chris Simms saw the KC game and was appalled by it.  His commentary on our front 7 was "their defense sucks...nobody in their front seven is worth a damn".  If it's true, we're in big trouble.

 

I'm going to put it out there it's not good, but perhaps not that dire.  The arm bones connected to the shoulder - the DL and LB look worse if the DB can't cover long enough to get there (and vice versa of course).   We have been dealing with injuries - how many teams can lose both starting CB and still shut down a team in man (Tenn)?  And of course, a great team can make an average team look bad.

 

Currently the Bills stand 21-23 for points and yards given up, but with the large variance in how many games have been played this year, that's harder to sort than usual.  11-12 of the teams ahead of us have played one less game.

 

Normalized for PPG and YPG, the Bills are 15th (PPG) or 16th (YPG).  (data from Pro-football-reference, calculation by moi)

 

Yes, we are precisely an AVERAGE team on defense.  That's not what we expected; it's not good.  But it's not crap, either, considering we have played some good teams and the reigning World Champions.   It's not impossible of improvement if we can get healthier and sort stuff out on the DL.

 

PS we're currently about an average team on offense as well - 20th in PPG and 11th in YPG.  Again, not good but not impossible of improvement, we're moving the ball well, we need to punch it in more.

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Just another viewpoint

 

Chris Simms saw the KC game and was appalled by it.  His commentary on our front 7 was "their defense sucks...nobody in their front seven is worth a damn".  If it's true, we're in big trouble.

 

I'm going to put it out there it's not good, but perhaps not that dire.  The arm bones connected to the shoulder - the DL and LB look worse if the DB can't cover long enough to get there (and vice versa of course).   We have been dealing with injuries - how many teams can lose both starting CB and still shut down a team in man (Tenn)?  And of course, a great team can make an average team look bad.

 

Currently the Bills stand 21-23 for points and yards given up, but with the large variance in how many games have been played this year, that's harder to sort than usual.  11-12 of the teams ahead of us have played one less game.

 

Normalized for PPG and YPG, the Bills are 15th (PPG) or 16th (YPG).  (data from Pro-football-reference, calculation by moi)

 

Yes, we are precisely an AVERAGE team on defense.  That's not what we expected; it's not good.  But it's not crap, either, considering we have played some good teams and the reigning World Champions.   It's not impossible of improvement if we can get healthier and sort stuff out on the DL.

 

 

Agree. The Tenn game the defense was awful (although even then they got no help from offense and STs). For the most part though it has been as you say - average. Having played the Jets twice does help our numbers a tad though. They are the most pathetic offense in the league.