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Chris Simms: The Bills are a perfect matchup for the Pats right now. Can't run, can't stop the run.


Thurman#1

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2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

We can't run or we don't try to run that much?

 

This.  The Bills are committed to 4-wide.  Run the receivers deep and pull the secondary with them.  NE is going to have to respect that.  Stopping swing passes to White and stopping Burkhead from running off center is going to be the keys to this game.

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I liked the "Hope" stuff.  Made me think that the board people have soul and intelligence.

 

I think the Bills will have some success running the ball this week.   It seems to be trending slightly better and a healthy Moss is gathering speed.

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The Bills can absolutely be stout against the run. We proved that in the Titans game, but Tannehill beat us with his arm. I am not ready to concede that Cam can do that as well as Tannehill did.

 

If Mongo plays we'll have a much better running front. Even if he doesn't play don't you think that Daboll is planning to attack their weakness?

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Definitely worried about them running on us. As for us passing on their D.... I think we will be able to move the ball through the air. I am not too concerned. It will be another stay patient, take the underneath stuff, use Beasley game. 

I have been saying for over a week that this is a terrible matchup for the Bills. Buffalo might win - they are better - but matchup-wise this is a nightmare.

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35 minutes ago, jletha said:

I actually dont think our main weakness is stopping the run. When we gameplan to stop it we do. We held Derrick Henry to 57 yards, 3 YPA which is his lowest of the season. The Chiefs ran all over us but 1) their the Chiefs and 2) McD literally said that was the plan.

 

I think our biggest weakness is QB contain and the secondary which impacts the run game.

I think you make an argument that supports Simms. The front 7 is not so great at stopping the run. It took adding an extra man in the box to that, which then weakened the Pass D.

Last year Belichick ran all over the Bills, so I expect that will be their aim this week.  Can Cam beat us with his arm is the question...?

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Rain and wind Sunday.  High of 50F.  Gonna be a lot of running and short passing I think.  The running clock will shorten the game so turnovers will be a bit magnified.  I expect Allen to get some designed runs.  Those will be important.  Hold onto the ball, Josh. 

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2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I think the Bills running issues are a little overblown.  Henry was held in check.  Jacobs was held in check.  2 games hurt LAR and KC.  Vs LAR the offense got going and their playaction had the defense guessing.  KC was a strategic ploy to not commit extra guys in the box, stop Mahomes.  I do not see a 1 dimensional offense giving a Mcdermott defense problems.  I think Chris is over simplifing the matchup.  Can Buffalo commit more to stopping the run without worrying about getting burned outside? Yes.  Against a favorable matchup and favorable looks could Buffalo have success running? Yes.  

 

Against NE Buffalo can and should play man on early downs.  Third and longs they have 0 shot.  Allen would need to have his worst game of the season for this to be a close game.  I think NE play more man than we faced in the past few weeks.  Buffalo gets some big plays early.  These are the type of games Diggs was brought in for.  I think Buffalo wins big 27-9

 

This is an excellent point. 

The Bills have been able to stop the run when the gameplan is dedicated to doing so.  They did a pretty good job of shutting down Le'Veon Bell, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry.  When they have focused primarily on stopping the pass (Rams, Chiefs), is when they have gotten totally gashed on the ground.

 

So the real question... If the Bills load the box and stuff the run, can the Patriots offense take advantage of us in the passing game?  Consider that New England is going to be without Julian Edelman (knee surgery) and very likely will be without N'Keal Harry (concussion).  That is the top two receiving weapons on a team that already has none.  Cam Newton will have literally nothing to work with, in a game where wind is also expected to be 25-50 mph.  

 

On the other side, Bill Belichick always focuses on taking away the other team's top weapons.  My guess is that he will dictate a heavy amount of coverage on Stephon Diggs, and then do his best to confuse Josh Allen by changing his pre-snap looks.  This is where Allen's development since last season, and our abundance of weapons comes into play.  We will probably be forced into sticking heavy with the run.  But when we throw, it will be extremely important for Allen to stay poised, spread the ball around, and not force the ball into coverage.  I agree the Bills have struggled to get their running backs going.  But we get back Jon Feliciano, which I think will be a boost to the blocking.  And we did start to show some life last week with the return of Zack Moss. 

 

We far outweigh the Patriots in talent, and I don't see any reason we don't walk away from this with a win.

 

 

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The Patriots do match up well against Buffalo...on paper.

 

All it's going to take to open up the Buffalo pass game is to hit some big throws and get a lead. Then the Patriots plan to pound the rock goes out the window like it did against the 49ers. The Patriots lost to Denver too. 

 

Buffalo does need to stop that Patriots run game and short pass game which is like an elongated handoff. Tom Brady was excellent at running that form of WCO in just moving the chains play after play till they hit the red zone. Buffalo can also do that and perhaps even better because they have Beasley, Diggs, Brown, Davis. 

 

One stat that stands out is that the Patriots receivers have a 13% percentage of getting separation which is the very worst in the NFL. Again, all I see is NE running and throwing shorts, dump offs to the backs. They literally have nothing else. Cam Newton was horrid throwing against the 49ers, a 39.7 rating. He still might be suffering from the after effects of Covid -19.

 

If the Bills coaches get it right it should be a win and McD's first against this hated rival. 

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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Big Coben fan here. He writes good stuff.

 

My wife and I love to listen to his work while we drive, makes the trips go faster. I think his best work is the Myron Bolitar series (accept the one he self-read, that was bad). Highly recommend it.

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