Chris Simms: The Bills are a perfect matchup for the Pats right now. Can't run, can't stop the run.

[Seoulofstone]

Sims is right. If the weather is bad run success is especially vital and the Bills have looked shaky. The other key will be turnovers. I hope the Bills look after the ball. The pats O is struggling though. Cams shoulder being shot makes them one dimensional. His problem is that in trying to fix that narrative he has to throw...

[C.Biscuit97]

If they can’t beat this Pats team, they might never.  I’m a huge Cam fan but you are loading up the box (engage eight in Madden) and just forcing him and that crap receiving core to beat you.  

[Captain Hindsight]

People just do not want to give up on the Pats* fanbase and those sweet sweet clicks

[wjag]

In the first four games, the WRs caught everything that was thrown to them.  In the last three games, the drops are on the rise.  Correct that and things will look much brighter this weekend.

[zow2]

Yep.  The last time the Bills played a high rated rushing team (La Rams), they gave up huge rush yardage and 32 points.   Something has to give in this game.  If we can't stop the run it will be a brutal day.

[Doc]

20 minutes ago, Billzgobowlin said:

Of course the Pats are always favored.  No mention of how half our team and coaches played and coached Cam and right now he is their only offense and he isn't doing well either....

 

Actually the Bills are favored and the line has been increasing.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

The Pats - Bills content starts around 42:00.

 

Some excerpts:

 

Burmeister: What's going on with Cam Newton?

 

Simms: Well, he's off. No doubt about that.

 

Simms argues that the Pats last week were a terrible matchup against the Niners, as the Niners are "a run-first-centric team" and Shanahan's the run genius of football. And the Patriots on defense are built to stop passing offenses. He argues Belichick tries to scare you out of runs by packing the box, but then backs away, and some of the eight guys in the box are littler guys than are usually up there and wouldn't be especially effective against the run.

 

Simms: "What you've got to do is go, ' Oh, OK, we're outnumbered in the box, so what, that guy's 195 pounds, that guy's 205 pounds, our right guard can block both of them with his right arm.' " And Shanahan stuck with the run.

 

Asked what he thought were the Pats biggest offensive problems he said offensive line injuries and post-COVID Cam hasn't been the same after missing three weeks of football. They both thought his motion is off right now. But what made me a bit worried is something Simms said about that.

 

Simms:  "[Newton] gets into this almost once a year his whole career. ... where his front shoulder gets way high in the air."

 

Goes on to say (quite a bit later) that Newton has had this problem many times before for a week or two or three and then either he or a coach figures it out and corrects it and he starts playing better again.

 

... and ...

 

Simms: "And now they've got Buffalo this week, and that's the perfect team for them. Again, matchups. ... The Bills can't stop the run and they can't run the ball, so they have to throw it every play. Perfect for New England. So don't be shocked if New England upset Buffalo this week."

 

And later, his preview of the game:

 

He and Florio both pick the Pats, saying the Bills strength is passing and the Pats strength is stopping the pass, and that on offense the Pats strength is running while the Bills weakness is stopping the run.

 

Makes some sense.

 

If they're right, we'd better do a good job in the run game on both sides of the ball. Hopefully Feliciano's return will make a real difference.

 

Whattya think?

 

I've got a lot of respect for Chris Simms as an astute analyst.  It's entirely true that based on past average performance, it's a matchup that favors the Pats, and add in bad weather that will hinder passing and the matchup looks worse.  Which is why I'm not "buying in" to puff this game up into some kind of seasonal significance.

 

I think it's not quite true that the Bills can't stop the run.  What was the discussion in the Lee thread?  That 1-2 games can skew an analysis? 

We have 3 games where we held the opponent to <100 yds.   We did a creditable job of limiting Josh Jacobs (48 yds) and Derrick Henry (57 yds).  What we did with Tennessee was say "beat us passing if you can" and Tannhill said "OK".  We also failed to contain him and he hurt us with his feet either extending plays or rushing (Tannehill had 1/3 of their rush yards!!!!).  So if the Bills game-plan to stop the run and contain Newton, I think they can do it; then the key factor will be, can he fix his passing?  I don't think it's just his shoulder, I think it's the speed and quality of his decision making.

 

Health is also a factor: White, Milano, a 2nd CB.  Moss plus Singletary.  The OL.

 

I'm less sanguine about the Bills rush game, unless it's Allen.  The bubble screens we ran against the Jets were very effective.  Both Tenn. and KC also have ferocious and very high quality DL - can the same be said of the Pats right now? 

 

But I'm glad he said it...I think him saying the Bills had no one on their front 7 who was worth anything after the KC game may have been good motivational material, so to speak, so perhaps saying we can't run and can't stop the run will likewise have a good motivational effect. 

 

I had high hopes for Feliciano but it was pointed out that he may be on a snap count or inactive as he works back into 1st team reps.

 

I'm curious if Simms made any note of all the injuries the Bills have been dealing with

[zow2]

Just now, wjag said:

In the first four games, the WRs caught everything that was thrown to them.  In the last three games, the drops are on the rise.  Correct that and things will look much brighter this weekend.

 

Sadly, the rain and 35mph gusts are going to squash any good passing day.   The club that runs better and stops the run will win.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, wjag said:

In the first four games, the WRs caught everything that was thrown to them.  In the last three games, the drops are on the rise.  Correct that and things will look much brighter this weekend.

 

Getting cause and effect mixed.  The drops are up because Allen has been under a lot more pressure and when he hurries his throws they're a little bit less accurate and have less touch - harder to catch.

 

Fix the protection and the passing will improve.

 

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

Sadly, the rain and 35mph gusts are going to squash any good passing day.   The club that runs better and stops the run will win.

 

One hopes Daboll has taken a lesson from the Eagles game last year where he basically asked Allen to win it with his arm in crap weather because that was the matchup that made sense on paper.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

One hopes Daboll has taken a lesson from the Eagles game last year where he basically asked Allen to win it with his arm in crap weather because that was the matchup that made sense on paper.

 

If we have to run to win we are in trouble IMO. Do not trust our running game at all. Don't trust the blockers and don't trust the runners.

[wjag]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Getting cause and effect mixed.  The drops are up because Allen has been under a lot more pressure and when he hurries his throws they're a little bit less accurate and have less touch - harder to catch.

 

Fix the protection and the passing will improve.

 

 

One hopes Daboll has taken a lesson from the Eagles game last year where he basically asked Allen to win it with his arm in crap weather because that was the matchup that made sense on paper.

 

I disagree.  I watched them drop them right in their hands, off their face masks, etc.  I remember that catch Beasley made at the goal line that flipped him upside down. Part of it is forcing the ball into double coverage on Diggs without Brown being on the field.  But even Diggs has dropped a few he should have caught.

[Billzgobowlin]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Actually the Bills are favored and the line has been increasing.

I'm not talking about lines, I'm talking about sportscasters picking the Pats

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

I disagree.  I watched them drop them right in their hands, off their face masks, etc.  I remember that catch Beasley made at the goal line that flipped him upside down. Part of it is forcing the ball into double coverage on Diggs without Brown being on the field.  But even Diggs has dropped a few he should have caught.

 

The point is, you can see a ball hit the WR in the hands, but if he had to adjust his hands to get there and it has a lot of juice on it, it's a more difficult catch.

[wjag]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The point is, you can see a ball hit the WR in the hands, but if he had to adjust his hands to get there and it has a lot of juice on it, it's a more difficult catch.

 

But..but.. but... that's exactly what they are paid to do.  Not every ball is perfectly thrown.   If it's within their arm span, they are expected to catch it.  That is what they did in weeks 1-4.  Not as much lately.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

If we have to run to win we are in trouble IMO. Do not trust our running game at all. Don't trust the blockers and don't trust the runners.

 

Well we best figure it out then because this was a good recipe for a lost in 25 mph gusty and wet conditions last year.  Eagles rush 63% of snaps, Bills rush 37%

 

[ProcessAccepted]

I think that Monday there'll be multiple threads about Zack Moss and most of them will be positive 😲

[wjag]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well we best figure it out then because this was a good recipe for a lost in 25 mph gusty and wet conditions last year.  Eagles rush 63% of snaps, Bills rush 37%

 

 

I was in town and at that game.  It was horrendous.  I also had the misfortune of sitting in a section that was 75% Eagles fans.  The game was brutal to watch and their fans were very vocal.  It was sort of fun for say a quarter and a half.  But as the game started to get away and the Eagles were running wild, it was tough to sit there.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well we best figure it out then because this was a good recipe for a lost in 25 mph gusty and wet conditions last year.  Eagles rush 63% of snaps, Bills rush 37%

 

 

I am just hoping we have developed a more well rounded passing game that we can execute since then. I don't think we have the backs to run it 40 times for 200 yards, not behind this line especially. They had Miles Sanders who burned us on a couple of big ones that day and we don't anyone who can do that.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:

I think that Monday there'll be multiple threads about Zack Moss and most of them will be positive 😲

 

I like the way you think

[Ralonzo]

3 hours ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

“Hope” is the thing with feathers -

That perches in the soul -

And sings the tune without the words -

And never stops - at all
 

- Emily Dickinson 

 

Hope is a snowmobile, speeding across a frozen tundra.

Suddenly it flips over pinning you underneath.

At night the ice weasels come.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Ralonzo

[dave mcbride]

44 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Yep.  The last time the Bills played a high rated rushing team (La Rams), they gave up huge rush yardage and 32 points.   Something has to give in this game.  If we can't stop the run it will be a brutal day.

Since the Rams game, they have played TN, which is 5th in rushing, and KC, which is 9th. The Rams are 7th. The Pats are 4th.

Edited October 30, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Hope is a snowmobile, speeding across a frozen tundra.

Suddenly it flips over pinning you underneath.

At night the ice weasels come.

 

I don't like way you think.  Gruesome.

[CincyBillsFan]

Simm's makes a good point BUT when the Bills throw caution to the wind (and this Sunday that might be literal) and ignore the passing game they can shut down the run.  The fact that Cam is struggling and the water boy may be playing WR suggests the Bills will redefine crowding the box and be able to shut down the Pat's running game without fear of getting burned over the top.

 

 

 

 

[zow2]

I remember saying this last year after the Eagles game....it seemed like every time the Bills played an opponent that was experiencing serious adversity, the Bills came up small.  Already this year, Tennessee coming off Covid, they destroy Buffalo....KC coming off a rare loss and declaring "We don't lose 2 in a row" ...no problem gashing the Bills.   

 

Now Cam Newton and New England are calling this a "Must Win" to save their season (and possibly his career)... We shall see.  Can McDermott win a game like this, for once?!?

[TigerJ]

I don't think it is as simple as Simms makes it out to be.  There have been some times when Buffalo stopped the run pretty effectively: versus Tennessee and Derek Henry and the second half against the Jets in last Sunday's game.  There have also been games in which the Patriots didn't run all that effectively.  I do agree that those are the two biggest questions Buffalo will have to answer on Sunday.  I am concerned about the interior of Buffalo's offensive line with Cody Ford out.  I'm hoping Feliciano will be ready to play and plays pretty well.  The other guard is Brian Winter, who has not exactly been lights out this season, or Boettger, who has not yet shown he's anything but a backup.

 

In defense, it does seem as if the way to go is to man up on the WRs and stack the box.  It will also help a lot if Buffalo could jump out to a 2 or 3 TD lead.  That would force New England to move away from a steady diet of running the ball.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Simm's makes a good point BUT when the Bills throw caution to the wind (and this Sunday that might be literal) and ignore the passing game they can shut down the run.  The fact that Cam is struggling and the water boy may be playing WR suggests the Bills will redefine crowding the box and be able to shut down the Pat's running game without fear of getting burned over the top.

 

That's my thinking.   White and Wallace (if activated) would also be a less combustible coverage than Norman on AJ Brown - which was a "plan where you lose your hat". 

 

And "Any Plan where you Lose your Hat is a Bad Plan (tm)"

 

The other thing, though is we can't lose contain on Newton and we have to be able to get some pressure with 4.  We couldn't against Tannehill or Mahomes but I don't think the Pats OL is nearly as sound or as physical as Tenn or KC.

[thurst44]

5 hours ago, CSBill said:

And like in a bad relationship, that is the narrative we don't want to believe. We're all hoping that the nice time we had with the Jets in the 2nd half is the new norm, not all the dysfunctional things before that.

 

"Hope is the cruelest of virtues" (Harlem Coben).

And some of us always want to believe the norm is whatever is the worst version of the team. They have stopped the run some weeks, been awful other weeks. They've also been plagued by an absurd rash of injuries, but have a lot of talent. I'm not sure which defense or running game we'll see this week. I'm not sure what this team is this year. That seems like the rational reaction, not that they are clearly terrible and cannot beat any good teams.

 

Also, for all we seem to wish to rag on this team, they are still 5-2 with their only losses to teams that played in Conference Championship games, and wins against three teams that are .500 or better. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I don't think it is as simple as Simms makes it out to be.  There have been some times when Buffalo stopped the run pretty effectively: versus Tennessee and Derek Henry and the second half against the Jets in last Sunday's game.  There have also been games in which the Patriots didn't run all that effectively.  I do agree that those are the two biggest questions Buffalo will have to answer on Sunday.  I am concerned about the interior of Buffalo's offensive line with Cody Ford out.  I'm hoping Feliciano will be ready to play and plays pretty well.  The other guard is Brian Winter, who has not exactly been lights out this season, or Boettger, who has not yet shown he's anything but a backup turnstile.

 

In defense, it does seem as if the way to go is to man up on the WRs and stack the box.  It will also help a lot if Buffalo could jump out to a 2 or 3 TD lead.  That would force New England to move away from a steady diet of running the ball.

 

FIFY.  Good assessment.  Agree, the interior of our OL is something Belicheck will be looking to exploit.  In addition to Boettger, Winters has not been good.

[Like A Mofo]

I think Simms has a valid point an I don't take a ton away from the Jets game.

 

For the first time in over 2 decades, ALL of the pressure to me is on the Buffalo Bills.

 

All of this off-season we have expected and hoped that the Bills would become the top dogs in the division. No Brady. COVID opt outs for the Pats. Everything is pointing our way.

 

This coaching staff has yet to beat New England in a meaningful game.This is the time to do so.

 

 

[uticaclub]

4 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I think the Bills running issues are a little overblown.  Henry was held in check.  Jacobs was held in check.  2 games hurt LAR and KC.  Vs LAR the offense got going and their playaction had the defense guessing.  KC was a strategic ploy to not commit extra guys in the box, stop Mahomes.  I do not see a 1 dimensional offense giving a Mcdermott defense problems.  I think Chris is over simplifing the matchup.  Can Buffalo commit more to stopping the run without worrying about getting burned outside? Yes.  Against a favorable matchup and favorable looks could Buffalo have success running? Yes.  

 

Against NE Buffalo can and should play man on early downs.  Third and longs they have 0 shot.  Allen would need to have his worst game of the season for this to be a close game.  I think NE play more man than we faced in the past few weeks.  Buffalo gets some big plays early.  These are the type of games Diggs was brought in for.  I think Buffalo wins big 27-9

Henry was kept in check because the Titans didn't need their best player to win the game

[LABILLBACKER]

24 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Simm's makes a good point BUT when the Bills throw caution to the wind (and this Sunday that might be literal) and ignore the passing game they can shut down the run.  The fact that Cam is struggling and the water boy may be playing WR suggests the Bills will redefine crowding the box and be able to shut down the Pat's running game without fear of getting burned over the top.

 

 

 

 

We should be playing press man all day. Stack the box and dare Cam to throw deep.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, uticaclub said:

Henry was kept in check because the Titans didn't need their best player to win the game

 

LOL!  Not how it works.

[Scott7975]

42 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Since the Rams game, they have played TN, which is 5th in rushing, and KC, which is 9th. The Rams are 7th. The Pats are 4th.

 

I could be mistaken but do they not have a depleted backfield since then?  

[Lurker]

Simms is right--until the Bills do something about it and prove they're not who we thought they are...

[Mat68]

17 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Henry was kept in check because the Titans didn't need their best player to win the game

The whole game was setup for a heavy run attack.  They played from the lead the whole time. The top rusher was held to 3 yards a carry on 15 carries.   The run defense is over blown.  

[NewEra]

It’s all so true.  Tough matchup. 

[PatsFanNH]

If the Bills lose to the Patriots Sunday I would be beyond shocked! First Cam can’t throw for crap anymore and even if he remembers Sunday he is without Edelman (knee surgery on IR) and Harry (Concussion) on D Gilmore is out with a tweet to his Hammy..  add in the Pats are just not that good this year and well if Buffalo losses Sunday I expect the Phins win the division.

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, Like A Mofo said:

I think Simms has a valid point an I don't take a ton away from the Jets game.

 

For the first time in over 2 decades, ALL of the pressure to me is on the Buffalo Bills.

 

All of this off-season we have expected and hoped that the Bills would become the top dogs in the division. No Brady. COVID opt outs for the Pats. Everything is pointing our way.

 

This coaching staff has yet to beat New England in a meaningful game.This is the time to do so.

 

 

This coaching staff has yet to beat New England in any game! 

 

 

[BillsfaninSB]

4 hours ago, Kwai San said:

Too much Hope crap.

 

Get the job done Bills! 

 

Cold Beastly and Josh.....a marriage made in underneath history......git er done!!

Hope is the raw materials for losers. 

[ChevyVanMiller]

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Hope is a snowmobile, speeding across a frozen tundra.

Suddenly it flips over pinning you underneath.

At night the ice weasels come.

I do believe that was Emily's first draft.