What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[whatdrought]

26 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That is certainly been true. 

 

I think this is a VERY important question: How much did the landing spot make a difference? 

 

Arizona, Cleveland and the Jets were absolute dumpster fires. Rosen didn't get much better in Miami. Josh got a stable organization on the rise with good coaching. I’m NOT making a statement, I’m asking a question. What do you think? What would Josh look like today if he was a Brown or a Jet? 

 

 

.

It’s always chicken egg... rookie QB comes in and is a stud he elevates the team and people aren’t talking about how trash they are. I don’t like how much the “it’s his surroundings” argument is used about Darnold (and Rosen). At some point you’re either good or you’re not.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

 

 

They didn't miss anything. And I think you're mis-stating what was said about him. That he had a good chance of being the next Locker or Boller? Fair enough. That his ceiling was Mallett? Please. Maybe a guy here or there blew it this badly but the consensus knew that his ceiling was very very high indeed, but questioned the likelihood of reaching that ceiling.

 

He was generally considered a first-rounder even though he was also thought to require two years of development, though some said even more.

 

Guys who need development are less valued, and for good reason. Teams would rather have a guy who will be ready quicker, and it is correctly understood development is hard. Relatively fewer developmental guys become good than guys who require less development. And more, a developmental guy is far more dependent on having an excellent environment. The situation has to be excellent. Allen on the Jets might well have not succeeded.

 

More, there's another problem with development guys, which is that even in good circumstances, plenty of them can't develop. Changing mechanics is hard. Some guys prove unable to make those changes. And there's no way to accurately predict which guys can change and which can't.

 

They actually nailed the Josh Allen evaluation. They said he was a hard worker and a great kid, and they were right. Without that and the terrific environment the Bills provided, he wouldn't have become what he has.

 

There were an awful lot even a fair amount of Cam Newton comps, which appear to have been exactly what this group saw.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Thurman#1

[JMF2006]

1 hour ago, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

 

Intangibles plain and simple.

 

JA has the will and the drive to be the best he can be.

 

You can't teach heart and desire and with his raw athletic ability he is the perfect clay to be molded into the prototype QB of the future  

[Rk_Bills86]

I'm going to make a statement that many people probably aren't going to like. Draft Experts did not get Allen wrong. He was simply on of the few QBs that has actually made progress towards his ceiling when starting from what would be considered a low floor. This is a combination of many things - including Allen himself, but lets not sit here and ignore the fact that the organization has done literally everything in it's power to build around him to aid his improvement.

 

New OL - far better than what we had with TT and JA's first year

The Right OC - that uses an absolute TON of various looks, packages, and schemes and is just now able to scheme per opponent

New Weapons - based on what he needs and how the NFL is trending

 

If you don't believe me - We only need to look in our own division and see a player that had a much higher floor although lower end ceiling in Sam Darnold where he is dealing with:

 

Just now getting a possibly good OL (year three and they are just/still addressing this)

The OC/HC that is lauded as a QB guru is a sham

His best current weapon is a very very old Chris Hogan (yeah yeah I know - Injures - but our depth at all the skill positions is far better)

 

They weren't wrong - they nailed everything he'd need to work on. Josh Allen simply worked to improve while his organization did the same. This is not always the case and it's why 99% of project QBs go nowhere.

[stuvian]

they're called intangibles for a reason

[Protocal69]

I think one thing that Allen does not get remotely the credit he deserves is for his intelligence. Some people just think Allen is just a dumb jock with a strong arm but that is the furthest thing from the truth.

 

Remember his Wonderlic score was a 37/50 coming out of school. I would imagine this helps when it comes down to learning new things like skill and playbooks and concepts.

 

Allen probably has the highest combination of Wonderlic score and Arm strength in NFL history

 

Allen also does not get enough credit for being able to read defenses and is getting better all the time. Guys like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield are still after year 3 not seeing backside defenders and throwing picks.

 

When you combine his intelligence this his heart and coachability that is a scary thing and the league might have to watch out

 

 

[JohnNord]

The issue is EVERYONE thinks they can predict success in the NFL.  When the truth is - it’s a big crapshoot.  There are so many factors that result in the success or failure of a draft pick.    
 

As you’ve seen in Moneyball there’s a natural tension between the analytics and old-school scouting crowd over whose method is best.  Stats and data vs. measurables and intangibles.  

 

With the analytics crew, it’s the classic case of data rich, insight poor.  They wanted to be the smartest guys in the room.  I believe they tried to project Josh using the same data for other top QB’s without considering the context or understanding how pros develop a prospect.  That’s why his metrics rated so poorly compared to the other top guys.  So hearing that a prospect that they rated so low, mentioned as a candidate for the top pick, just didn’t compute (pun intended!)

 

As a result they really began to dig their heels and double down on their numbers which said that the odds are unlikely Josh will be a good pro.   This led to many snarky tweets to essentially say “see we told you so, he’s really bad.”  
 

IMO it goes back to proving that their method is the best.  Some of the skepticism on Allen is actually fair based on his less than impressive college numbers.  But the bleak projections, that people like Sam Monson made, are just ignorant.  It shows he has no idea about the nuance involved with developing a prospect. 
 

 

 

[Puckman5]

It's difficult to quantify potential and assess what a player that's rough around the edges will do to reach it once he starts getting paid.  He wasn't a great passer coming out of college, so what do you look for:

Flashes of great passing

Athleticism 

Brains

Leadership

Competitiveness.

Work ethic

Coachability

 

Then you place the bet.

 

 

[JohnNord]

9 minutes ago, Rk_Bills86 said:

I'm going to make a statement that many people probably aren't going to like. Draft Experts did not get Allen wrong. He was simply on of the few QBs that has actually made progress towards his ceiling when starting from what would be considered a low floor. This is a combination of many things - including Allen himself, but lets not sit here and ignore the fact that the organization has done literally everything in it's power to build around him to aid his improvement.

 

New OL - far better than what we had with TT and JA's first year

The Right OC - that uses an absolute TON of various looks, packages, and schemes and is just now able to scheme per opponent

New Weapons - based on what he needs and how the NFL is trending

 

If you don't believe me - We only need to look in our own division and see a player that had a much higher floor although lower end ceiling in Sam Darnold where he is dealing with:

 

Just now getting a possibly good OL (year three and they are just/still addressing this)

The OC/HC that is lauded as a QB guru is a sham

His best current weapon is a very very old Chris Hogan (yeah yeah I know - Injures - but our depth at all the skill positions is far better)

 

They weren't wrong - they nailed everything he'd need to work on. Josh Allen simply worked to improve while his organization did the same. This is not always the case and it's why 99% of project QBs go nowhere.

To an extent you are right and the analogy between Allen and Darnold is spot on.

 

But IMO where the analytics crowd was wrong was their projections of Josh.  Sam Monson claimed Josh would never be a better QB than Baker Mayfield.  Also claimed that Josh would never complete higher than 58% of his passes and would need short dump off to do so.

 

To me, it shows a lack of understand in the role that the organization and coaching plays in the development of a prospect.  

[K-9]

52 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

The real story around the draft and Josh is, who tossed out the tweets a day or two prior to the draft, suggesting Josh was racist.  And how did that impact and influence who drafted him.  If at all.

The rumor is that it was the Cardinals who leaked those tweets. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

History was against him. Prospects with his skills went much later and did much less.

 

Even against 2nd rate competition his numbers weren't great. If he had a Wentz or McNair final year people might have bought in more. Basically he was favre like 30 years later, when spread system guys are putting up 50 TDs. Hard to project.

[jlgarsh]

Mel Kiper was pretty much the only guy who believed in Allen. He and McShay got into it a couple times live about it, even after Josh’s rookie year. Mel said Allen would be the best QB in the AFC East in the next 5 years and McShay laughed at him and said it was Darnold. Then Mel went off on him.

[thronethinker]

It isn't about Allen, its about their ability to say they were right and get likes or shares. That is all it is now, looks and likes, but not having to be right. They were wrong and it didnt generate any views or likes. They rode the wrong train the last 2 years defending their opinions while hoping it would generate more likes and followers. It hasn’t worked out that way. Welcome to the world of where it doesn’t matter what you are capable of, only what someone else has a social response to. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by thronethinker

[thebandit27]

23 minutes ago, K-9 said:

The rumor is that it was the Cardinals who leaked those tweets. 

I also heard that.

[KD in CA]

2 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

 I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years

 

You must have been reading TSW!

 

 

As others have pointed out, the Bills have done exactly what you are supposed to do when you spend big capital on a new QB.  

Priority #1:  Protect him with an OL (sign big FA Morse, draft Ford) so he doesn't end up like Andrew Luck.

Priority #2:  Get him some weapons (sign vets Brown/Beasley, big trade for Diggs when possible, draft RBs and WRs)

 

Jets tried to do #2 first by signing Bell, but they failed to understand he was largely a product of Pittsburgh's system and OL so they wasted a ton of cap space on him.  They still haven't figured out the OL.

Edited October 1, 2020 by KD in CA

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BringBackFergy said:

One word:

He has a ***** huuuge heart. 

 

I think that's 6 words?

 

I also think you're on to something. 

 

Buddy Nix graded Russell Wilson in the 4th round.  He commented that you can't measure heart, but all the measurables put him there so that's where he stayed, lucky for the Seasnakes who slithered up to the podium up in the 3rd and drafted Wilson just a few players after we took....TJ Graham (yes, that one does still eat at me, why do you ask?)

 

Once  they assessed that a baseline level of skill and smarts were there, I think Beane and Co. set out to measure heart. 

 

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Let’s not forget THE mistake he made at 16?

 

 

https://www.si.com/.amp/nfl/2018/04/26/nfl-draft-josh-allen-apologizes-tweets

 

He apologized and Beane and McD saw the truth of it

Edited October 1, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, K-9 said:

The rumor is that it was the Cardinals who leaked those tweets. 

 

Oh, IS it now.

[Bob in STL]

Scouts can’t always measure: Heart. Intelligence.  Willingness to work hard. Willingness to learn.  He has all of that.  
 

He had the ability and courage to gain acceptance first, and then lay it out there and lead by example.  The people around him trust him and he makes them better.  

[BullBuchanan]

I'm not sure they missed anything. You had a kid that never had sustained success in college with a 56% completion percentage in college. There are a very small number of successful NFL QBs with numbers that low that went on to have NFL Success (Montana, Favre, Moon, Vick) If you look at a large sampling of NFL QB college stats, you'll find that accuracy for QBs who were significantly under 60% in college typically improves less than 3 points if at all, over their pro career. Brees is a notable exception, but he was already considered accurate (60%+). Montana is one that stands out as making a massive leap from 52% in college to 63% over a pro career. I don't know enough about his collegiate play to know if he was considered to have accuracy issues in college.

If the Josh Allen we're seeing this year is the Josh Allen going forward, he'll have made the kind of leap that only Joe Montana ever did. Josh still got drafted top 10, while Montana waited until the 3rd round.

The last two years he was statistically in the bottom 3rd of the league. 2020's Josh Allen is a kid who looks like he finally put it all together.

Edited October 1, 2020 by BullBuchanan

[Buffalo716]

Some of the throws that Josh Allen made on Sunday.

 

The third and 20 pluses.. are a reason why arm strength is not overrated

 

Arm strength was John elways best attribute. Brett favre's best attribute. And is the reason Josh will become a superstar

 

With all the drills, you can teach precision. You cannot teach natural arm strength and release speed like Josh Allen has

[Malazan]

It's simple what they missed...Allen is a 'gamer' and he wants to be better and those two things are true without caveats. Jackson and Allen were both the two best 'gamer' QBs. It's not surprising that they're the two best from that draft. 

[technobot]

Allen has benefited from a program that believed in him and pushed in all the chips for him. From maneuvering in the draft so they could select him, putting mentors and coaches in place, and finally, surrounding him with a bevy of weapons. But then, doesn't everyone do this for their QB?

 

The program itself had time. He wasn't supposed to start year one, and what we saw confirmed this: a raw rookie who needed much refinement, thrown into the fire. I don't want to make excuses for him but it feels like 2019 was his effective rookie year, with 2018 being extended training camp.

Darnold will be on his 3rd head coach, 3rd OC shortly. Mayfield is in a similar situation but at least he's surrounded by a ton of talent. Rosen gotten the worst of it.

 

McDermott and Beane had the benefit of being able to bring Allen along over several years in a "win now, results now" league. It's a luxury that many/most head coaches and GMs don't have. It helps that Allen made the 2018 - 2019 jump as proof that this gamble was going somewhere. While he's still not "there" yet, he's trending in the right direction (early as it is). Making the playoffs last year couldn't have hurt.

 

I doubt they would have given up on him (or the Pegulas would have given up on the regime) unless Allen turned into Nate Peterman. My guess is Pegula had enough faith in McBeane (especially after the Andy Dalton playoff berth) to see this thing through at least 5 years. It's doubtful this was a zero sum game, where Allen either became a top 5 QB, or the whole thing was graded an abject failure. Perhaps there were degrees of acceptability, ranging from MVP candidate to Joe Flacco.

 

Agree with the comments about Allen's heart and character. I believe it is unlikely someone his age can completely ignore the criticism or hate, because of social media. I don't think he lets it affect him; I hope he uses it as ammunition Brady-style to prove the doubters wrong.

 

 

[billybrew1]

I think scouts missed that a QB could be great while not having traditional QB stances and footwork. To be honest, I don’t understand how he does it either. He’s just so strong he just gives the ball a little push and wham, it’s a bomb.

I was never a anti-fan of Allen, I’m too big of a Bills fan. Once we drafted him, I just supported him.

I learned more and more and more since we’ve had him. But his footwork is completely unconventional imho, but it works .

I really think McD and Beane and Daboll especially, did a fantastic job bringing him along slowly and surely.

the weird thing is, he is definitely still getting better and he does things no QB ever did before with his unique blend of size, and strength with speed and athleticism.  How good could he get?  It’s possible he gets better than MaHommes imho... Say, like the middle of next season.... He does these things, and we think he’s crazy, or out of control, but I think he can do them. We are missing plays not really catching on, that no QB did these things before.

[BringBackFlutie]

Their eyes. 

[Da webster guy]

Elusiveness and pocket presence is really tough to assess in the transition from college to pros.   

Josh was already a good QB before this season because of that.  If you can buy an extra 2 seconds you're almost always throwing to guys with good separation, if you can't then you have to be pinpoint which he never was until this year.

 

I swear Daboll WANTS the defense to send a free blitzer because the first guy there always seems to whiff embarrassingly and now somebody is open.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

They didn't miss anything. And I think you're mis-stating what was said about him. That he had a good chance of being the next Locker or Boller? Fair enough. That his ceiling was Mallett? Please. Maybe a guy here or there blew it this badly but the consensus knew that his ceiling was very very high indeed, but questioned the likelihood of reaching that ceiling.

 

He was generally considered a first-rounder even though he was also thought to require two years of development, though some said even more.

 

Guys who need development are less valued, and for good reason. Teams would rather have a guy who will be ready quicker, and it is correctly understood development is hard. Relatively fewer developmental guys become good than guys who require less development. And more, a developmental guy is far more dependent on having an excellent environment. The situation has to be excellent. Allen on the Jets might well have not succeeded.

 

More, there's another problem with development guys, which is that even in good circumstances, plenty of them can't develop. Changing mechanics is hard. Some guys prove unable to make those changes. And there's no way to accurately predict which guys can change and which can't.

 

They actually nailed the Josh Allen evaluation. They said he was a hard worker and a great kid, and they were right. Without that and the terrific environment the Bills provided, he wouldn't have become what he has.

 

There were an awful lot even a fair amount of Cam Newton comps, which appear to have been exactly what this group saw.

The name that kept popping up with Allen was Christian Hackenberg.  Many of Twitter analysts made the comparison quite a bit

[skibum]

I think it's fair to say he was a riskier pick than the others at the time, because he needed more development and the time commitment that goes with that; and even after all the investment, there is no guarantee it's going to pay off. There is a lot of pressure now to get instant results out of your high draft picks. 

[Andy1]

Allen is an athletic freak. That part was partially evident. No one knew if it would translate to the NFL. He is succeeding because he combines that with intangibles that people didn’t see. His drive and will to succeed through lots of work has propelled him to success. Luckily Bean & co. Recognized those intangibles and risked their jobs by selecting him. Their ability to build around him has also greatly contributed to Allen’s success. 

[Batman1876]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

OP seems a bit extreme. Did any of the real draft experts not expect him to be a 1st round pick? The draft is a crapshoot. Everyone tries to form an opinion because that is what they are paid to do. Reality is millions of dollars are spent analyzing guys and everyone still gets it wrong more often than right. 

I would say most draft experts were right on Allen in many ways. I think what they did not expect is his athletic ability to translate so well to the NFL. That has helped give him the time to work on the rest of his game which he has done an excellent job of doing. When he was drafted most expected a bumpy ride, but also said the sky is the limit if he figures it out. That ride to the sky is getting much less bumpy. Enjoy it. 

These were quotes from places like football outsiders, draft dudes, pff, Jon Ledyard 

[Ralonzo]

Have some more JAPorn

 

 

[K-9]

59 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

The name that kept popping up with Allen was Christian Hackenberg.  Many of Twitter analysts made the comparison quite a bit

Twitter analysts.  Enough said.

[Nihilarian]

Around 98% of the posters on this board wanted Josh Rosen over Allen. Some even wanted Buffalo to give up the farm to the NY Giants to draft Rosen at the #2 spot.

 

Some stated that they felt like they were "gut punched" when Buffalo drafted Allen. One noted supposed board draft guru had a 3rd round grade on Josh Allen and most stated he will never be good because of his accuracy issues. 

 

This was the consensus from most of the draft pundits, save Mr Hair, Mel. 

 

 https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/22/17267900/josh-allen-2018-nfl-draft-scouting-report-film-analysis-statistics-background-strengths-weaknesses

 

"Allen will play well in an offense that emphasizes play action, moving pockets, and deep passing. He’ll struggle if he starts right away, unless coaches simplify his reads and emphasize his option to check down. He should head to a team with an established veteran so he can learn the ropes, otherwise his potential may never manifest on Sundays."

[LABILLBACKER]

This could easily have gone any of 4 different directions. Josh Allen was not highly touted when he played at Wyoming. And it's well documented that his accuracy was a problem. But what we are finding out as Bills fans is this kid has heart and leadership and a drive that will push him to numbers we've never seen before. Maybe even better than Jim.  Josh works his ass off every off season just to get better. The pundits that were convinced he would fail have mostly come around. Sean and Brandon saw something special. Even if he'd take some developing. Now that our offense looks amazing lead by a soon to be star, it will be time to revamp our once great defense. 

[JohnNord]

51 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Twitter analysts.  Enough said.

Draft Twitter is a thing!  By that I meant the usual PFF crew and sites like the Draft Network etc

[Rc2catch]

He could just as easily have busted. They’re just playing the odds. Switch Allen and Darnold. Are they in the same position today? 

[JohnNord]

30 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Around 98% of the posters on this board wanted Josh Rosen over Allen. Some even wanted Buffalo to give up the farm to the NY Giants to draft Rosen at the #2 spot.

 

Some stated that they felt like they were "gut punched" when Buffalo drafted Allen. One noted supposed board draft guru had a 3rd round grade on Josh Allen and most stated he will never be good because of his accuracy issues. 

 

This was the consensus from most of the draft pundits, save Mr Hair, Mel. 

 

 https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/22/17267900/josh-allen-2018-nfl-draft-scouting-report-film-analysis-statistics-background-strengths-weaknesses

 

"Allen will play well in an offense that emphasizes play action, moving pockets, and deep passing. He’ll struggle if he starts right away, unless coaches simplify his reads and emphasize his option to check down. He should head to a team with an established veteran so he can learn the ropes, otherwise his potential may never manifest on Sundays."

Most people thought he would never be good because the PFF’s of the world said he wouldn’t be.  Allen is a case study why you shouldn’t always take everything the Analytics crowd says as fact 

3 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

He could just as easily have busted. They’re just playing the odds. Switch Allen and Darnold. Are they in the same position today? 

I don’t think so.  Darnold would be in a great spot in Buffalo and Allen probably isn’t starting anymore in NY.

 

There so much more than goes into the success of a QB prospect outside of their college stats and measurables.  So much is dependent on the situation they are drafted in.  

[Punching Bag]

4 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Because many of these scouts and GMs are like some of the know-it-alls here at TBD where only big boys from big boy programs who put up big time college stats can only be successful.  Remember the heated debate this summer where forum members were saying Fromm was gonna challenge Allen for the job.  That was a fun debate; of course many of those posters are eating their words now.

 

Many of them went back into their holes until time for next game of whack-a-mole.

[blacklabel]

We always talk about how players need to buy into the culture or the vision or the grand master plan or whatever they call their method of operating a pro sports franchise. But all of that has to start at the top, the owners, administration, and coaching staff all have to believe and buy in themselves. And with our dear leader McBeane, they saw Allen's raw skills and his desire and said, "We can make him a franchise quarterback. We believe in our coaches to get him where he can be. We believe in our front office to build a proper offense around him. We believe in our owners to provide the resources to build that offense. We believe we are the ones to maximize his potential." It's a roll of the dice, really on so many things in sports. But they saw what he could be and said, "Yeah, we're the team that'll help him reach his pinnacle." 

 

And that's the culture that McDermott and Beans have created that permeates throughout the entire building. This is really a complete team, they all prop each other up and wanna see each other succeed. McBeane have this team in the right place and headed in the right direction. I hate to get ahead of myself but it feels like something real interesting is brewing for this season. Just feels like we're entering an era where a lot of big time stuff is gonna go down. We're here for it. Youse guys all just gotta Billieve! 

[Stanley Lombardi]

Heart, balls, guts, brains...