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Batman1876

What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

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I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

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His ball placement has improved so much. The only answer for such and improvement is hard work combined with good coaching.
 

Many including myself didn’t believe that even with hard work his ball placement could be improved this much. 
 

Not to mention the QB coach his rookie year was not exactly a QB guru. The signs pointed to disaster. I had no trust that the coach who drafted and started Peterman, Zay Jones, and traded for Benjamin, Would be able to develop a project QB in a pass-first offense. 

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Beane did a Jedi mind trick, telling everyone, "This is not the QB you're looking for."

 

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I think the Bills saw what he could do without a supporting cast. They salivated over what he'd do with one.

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I'm not sure who the draft experts who said those things were, but I know they're out there. Not everyone missed, Mel Kiper had him as the number 1 pick potentially the year before. Others like our very own Bandit as well. One group who completely got it wrong and continues to qualify anything good about Josh Allen, such as calling him a unicorn, is the stats model crowds. They're lost if they can't look at a guys a stats and see who fits the model- Baker Mayfield anyone. Allen had no such numbers and requires thorough old-school evaluation and imagination as to what he could be potentially. Film work and getting to know the athlete and his makeup are important. It is not a simple as a model.

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What people missed is what people miss about all great athletes

 

Their desire to win and improve at all costs

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13 minutes ago, Golden Goat said:

I think the Bills saw what he could do without a supporting cast. They salivated over what he'd do with one.

 

As I recall it was watching Allen work at the Senior Bowl with upper-level college talent, taking coaching and applying it immediately and with results, that convinced McBeane.

 

Edit: "We're seeing Josh Allen become the player we all thought he was"

 

 

Edited by Ralonzo
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Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield played for much bigger programs... better OLs, more weapons.. Allen played for a team that had little to no NFL talent.. So of course they looked at the stats, the saw these other guys completing 65% of their passes and Allen was at 55%.. They saw the highlight videos and all the TD celebrations with Eminem jam tracks playing in the back..

 

Then there were many like me, who saw a guy with an elite arm and just a gifted athlete overall with some mechanical issues, accuracy issues, maybe not as well coached up as the others and about as raw as could be for an NFL prospect.. we saw that he could be a top 2-3 QB if he got his issues worked out... many like myself wondered if he’d piece it all together... for that reason he dropped... little did we know he had the heart of a lion.. You can’t measure heart, but the talent has very much always been there.. Allen worked hard for years to get to where he’s at... now his coaching is even with Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen except he is 1,000x more talented than them and just about every QB in the league for that matter...the brains finally match the brawn....

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6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

What people missed is what people miss about all great athletes

 

Their desire to win and improve at all costs

 

It kills me to say it but that is why a certain QB wasn't drafted until the 6th round.

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The problem with Josh was never his ceiling. The real question was what is his floor? He had a long way to go, and he’s made AMAZING strides!

 

Hats off to Josh for all the hard work and the FO for trusting in him. What looked like a gamble then now looks like a steal. PLEASE keep this up! 

Just now, Haslett_Stomp said:

 

It kills me to say it but that is why a certain QB wasn't drafted until the 6th round.

 

He had not yet discovered avocado ice cream? 

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Because many of these scouts and GMs are like some of the know-it-alls here at TBD where only big boys from big boy programs who put up big time college stats can only be successful.  Remember the heated debate this summer where forum members were saying Fromm was gonna challenge Allen for the job.  That was a fun debate; of course many of those posters are eating their words now.

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6 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

 

They failed to take his character into account. Here's a kid that no one wanted coming out of high school who willed himself into the NFL. He always had the physical gifts, but he also has the commitment and discipline to hone those gifts to their maximum effect.

Edited by PromoTheRobot
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I think they missed how many fewer reps he had than the other top guys. He didn't go to elite QB camps, he didn't transfer high schools to go to a better football program and he went to a sub par college program as a result. The more you practice something the more you see diminishing returns, Josh has yet to hit that diminishing returns phase and other Josh was there before the draft. 

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Go back and read any number of my posts over the past couple of years. They ignored his relative lack of experience and exposure. They ignored his character. They didn’t properly consider the desire of a kid who had to solicit colleges for an offer. They didn’t bother to look further than the stats, and they passed off the physical traits as meaningless due to a perceived lack of understanding of how to play QB. We should all be very thankful that our scouts and GM did the research and could see what few saw. 

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Still the flaw with statistical qualifiers is they cannot judge heart, makeup of the player, work ethic and just desire to get better. 
 

Bills saw a piece of clay and thought with the right structure and after talking to Allen and learning his desire to be great and heart they took the entire package and thought they could mold that clay. 
 

without Josh’s heart and desire that clay stays just that a ball of clay with the tools. Aka Jamarcus Russell 

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What they missed is the same thing that I missed in my first go-around scouting him: he didn’t have accuracy problems. The ball goes where he wants it to go—provided he doesn’t rush his process and keeps his lower body balance consistent.

 

Once I noticed that, it became a question of whether the kid wants to be great badly enough to build the kind of mechanical consistency it takes to rid himself of erratic throws, and whether he possessed the ability to process well enough for the game to slow down. I gave him the benefit of the doubt there...

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