Has MLB shown a "non-bubble" plan is doomed for failure?

[Orlando Tim]

6 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Yes and my point is that with your case count numbers where they are and with no knowledge, treatment options or protocols you would have 50K dead or more in the same time because you have higher case counts. 

 

Stop pretending nursing home deaths made up 25K of that total. They didn't. They made up about 6K of that total. No argument that was idiotic from me.

 

Stop pretending that Florida is giving an accurate death count total. They aren't. I mean they fired their head of the State Health Dept because she refused to put out fake numbers. They aren't adding in excess deaths like NY state was. So your death count is a fake number and probably right now you can add 100 a day to it at least, and it just and all time high of 193 today. That number will continue rising. We know deaths lag case counts by 4 weeks or so, sometimes more.

 

Stop pretending Florida is doing something smart when they are shattering daily records for case counts day after day when they know they have the oldest population in the US. It's only a matter of time before it starts running through those old people communities like wildfire.

 

 

 

We fired the head of the state health dept? When? You figured that would be big news. I assume you mean the girl who wanted to put unverified numbers online. She was a geography major who was hired to input data and helped build the interface. She was fired because she would not put in proper data. In the two months since she was fired she has been charged with cyberstalking and not one person she worked with has defended her but several have called her out. We still have issue with data Orlando Health forgot decimal points a few times which skewed out numbers to look worse than they were but I doubt it is in deaths. 

[klos63]

8 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

 

yes. the virus is about 4-6x more contagious than the seasonal flu. yet there are still people comparing it to the flu. 

 

this is why opening schools up will be an epic disaster, if schools open up communities will shatter and we can kiss sports goodbye in America until 2022 season 

Lazy thinking

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Lazy thinking

Or willful ignorance.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Anyone who thinks the NFLPA is going to agree to a bubble for 4-5 months is delusional.  Never going to happen.  The only reason the NBA and NHL players agreed to a bubble, is because it is for a shorter time frame to finish the existing season. 

 

If the MLB fails and has to shut down their season they will change their tune. 

[Dopey]

8 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Are you serious?  Really???

Sadly, yes, he's serious.

[Captain Caveman]

9 hours ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly three months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

 

Here's the data:

 

Round 1: 17-18 May - 748 tested, with six testing positive from three clubs.
Round 2: 19-22 May - 996 tested, with two testing positive from two clubs.
Round 3: 25-26 May - 1,008 tested, with four testing positive from two clubs.
Round 4: 28-29 May - 1,130 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 5: 1-2 June - 1,197 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 6: 4-5 June - 1,195 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 7: 8-9 June - 1,213 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 8: 11-12 June - 1,200 tested, with two testing positive from two clubs.
Round 9: 15-16 June - 1,541 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 10: 17-21 June - 1,829 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 11: 22-28 June - 2,250 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 12: 29 June-5 July - 1,973 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 13: 6-12 July - 2,071 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 14: 13-19 July - 2,208 tested, with zero testing positive.

Round 15: 20-26 July - 1,574 tested, with zero testing positive.

The "something right" they are doing is not be in the United States where the government has completely F'd up the response.

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

We fired the head of the state health dept? When? You figured that would be big news. I assume you mean the girl who wanted to put unverified numbers online. She was a geography major who was hired to input data and helped build the interface. She was fired because she would not put in proper data. In the two months since she was fired she has been charged with cyberstalking and not one person she worked with has defended her but several have called her out. We still have issue with data Orlando Health forgot decimal points a few times which skewed out numbers to look worse than they were but I doubt it is in deaths. 

Be that as it may, Desantis is delusional when he says Fl is doing fine. He even quoted Donald on the " numbers are high cuz we test a lot" crap. He was fine with Jax having the RNC. I live in Fl and to me, he's a Donald ass kisser. Hope he's a 1 term Gov.

[mjd1001]

8 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

The NFL could pull this thing off if they do these 6 things.

 

1. Buy a 5,000 acre island.

2.  Build 7 low end football stadiums cheaper than high school ones.

3. Build a few very nice apartment building to house teams, families and strippers.

4. There is one small Walmart and every other building is a restaurant, bar or strip club. There could be a bowling alley and a par 3  9 hole golf course but the players would have to pay for it.

5. Once you are tested safe to be on the island you cannot leave until the season is over.

6. There is a small police force and a small hospital.

 

If the NFL does this we might be able to watch football this year.

good so far, but if players are going to live there....what is your power supply for the island? How about other infrastructure like drinking water and sewers?  Fire station?  

 

If you are starting your island from scratch...there is a lot more to it.

[Captain Caveman]

8 hours ago, MJS said:

That's not evidence of a proper response. That's evidence of New York getting hit first and hard and the disease running its course.

 

You really think that New Yorkers are all just good boys and girls who listened and wore masks and were just better citizens than everyone else in the US? How pompous is that? There are cities and states that have taken it just as seriously if not more and haven't gotten hit nearly as hard. And California has done everything New York has done and been far more strict, if you ask me.

California (and specifically LA) opened indoor bars / restaurants and saw a huge spike pretty quickly.  In any major metropolitan area I don't think there's a safe way for most indoor businesses until there's a vaccine.

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

California (and specifically LA) opened indoor bars / restaurants and saw a huge spike pretty quickly.  In any major metropolitan area I don't think there's a safe way for most indoor businesses until there's a vaccine.

 

And there is the answer as to if they did things properly. Nope...bars have been shown to pretty much be the perfect storm for super spreader events along with small restaurants, churches,  buses and subways

[quinnearlysghost88]

If you think there’s going to be an nfl season, please share all of the drugs you’re smiling. 

[billsfan89]

49 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

California (and specifically LA) opened indoor bars / restaurants and saw a huge spike pretty quickly.  In any major metropolitan area I don't think there's a safe way for most indoor businesses until there's a vaccine.

 

I live just South of LA and ***** bowling alleys and strip clubs were open after Memorial Day. It was insanely stupid.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Yeah, New York really showed us. Get more infected than anywhere on the planet. Amazing job, New York.

 

But they got the antibodies from it, so the disease ran its course.

 

Hello.  When infected people were pouring into NYC from Europe, how many of them could NYC test and trace?  What was NY's daily testing capacity at that time, and why?

 

I'll hang up and listen.

 

No, the disease did not "run its course" in NY with ~21% positive antibody tests in the city and 13.8% overall (most of upstate 3% or so)

10 hours ago, DCOrange said:

That's when the new season is expected to start. They just finished their season this past weekend.

 

Ah, OK, thanks!  When did their season resume, was it June?  UK kind of had their Covid reined in by then on a per-capita basis

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, SCBills said:

That being said, how do you explain Cali?  They've mimicked NY's response with a far different outcome so far.   

 

Cali did not actually. 

 

At the start, Cali did better.  They locked down earlier than NYC and got it under better control.  Bay area was shut down while DeBlasio was telling people to go to shows etc.

 

But then Cali did NOT do what NY did as they reopened.  People started protesting and municipalities started pushing back and the state caved, and failed to follow the CDC plan for reopening (which is what NYS did).  At the point where NY was requiring masks, Cali was "oh, well, we flattened the curve, Good Enough!"  As a result.....

[Logic]

In answer to the original question posed in this thread:

Yes, I do believe that the MLB situation is just the latest evidence that a full length NFL season is nothing more than a pipe dream.

Four games max, and then the league is forced to suspend, indefinitely postpone, or cancel the season.

 

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hello.  When infected people were pouring into NYC from Europe, how many of them could NYC test and trace?  What was NY's daily testing capacity at that time, and why?

 

I'll hang up and listen.

 

No, the disease did not "run its course" in NY with ~21% positive antibody tests in the city and 13.8% overall (most of upstate 3% or so)

 

Ah, OK, thanks!  When did their season resume, was it June?  UK kind of had their Covid reined in by then on a per-capita basis

Yep, mid-June

[Orlando Tim]

18 hours ago, Dopey said:

Be that as it may, Desantis is delusional when he says Fl is doing fine. He even quoted Donald on the " numbers are high cuz we test a lot" crap. He was fine with Jax having the RNC. I live in Fl and to me, he's a Donald ass kisser. Hope he's a 1 term Gov.

I have already stated that DeSantis never should have opened the bars, I also know Miami is rough shape because people there refuse to follow the rules and laws set out about Covid especially social distancing. As for a one term gov, I will wait to see our options because I am not a  1 topic voter. I am curious do you just dislike him because of Covid or other things also? 

[johnnywo]

20 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Cali did not actually. 

 

At the start, Cali did better.  They locked down earlier than NYC and got it under better control.  Bay area was shut down while DeBlasio was telling people to go to shows etc.

 

But then Cali did NOT do what NY did as they reopened.  People started protesting and municipalities started pushing back and the state caved, and failed to follow the CDC plan for reopening (which is what NYS did).  At the point where NY was requiring masks, Cali was "oh, well, we flattened the curve, Good Enough!"  As a result.....

But wasn't the goal always to flatten the curve? At least that's what I remember. Gavin Newsom has been as strict as anyone in the country and everywhere I go people are wearing masks. I don't see how the state caved? It stated to reopen IAW the guidance set forth.....spikes occurred and subsequently shut everything back down.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, johnnywo said:

But wasn't the goal always to flatten the curve? At least that's what I remember. Gavin Newcomb has been as strict as anyone in the country and everywhere I go people are wearing masks. I don't see how the state caved? It stated to reopen IAW the guidance set forth.....spikes occurred and subsequently shut everything back down.   

 

He wasn't, actually, Johnnywo.  He closed the state earlier - and the counties around SF closed down earlier yet - than NYC and NY, which helped. 

But this graphic makes the point (click on it to embiggen).  At a point where cases were still increasing and the CDC criteria for reopening had not been met, Newcomb deferred opening decisions to individual counties. 

 

There was also no mask mandate until 18 June except in a few limited municipalities.

 

 

New York, in contrast, had a clear downward slope of cases in every region that went through every phase of reopening, and did not reopen until it met CDC criteria not just for cases, but for testing and contact tracing.  NYS had a slow, phased reopening region by region.  A masks-in-public mandate was also put in place on 15 April.

 

 

California is sort of like the team that jumped out to an early lead in a football game, then came out of halftime and watched while the lead got slimmer and slimmer then work up and started trying get back on track in the 4th Q.

 

[Dopey]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I have already stated that DeSantis never should have opened the bars, I also know Miami is rough shape because people there refuse to follow the rules and laws set out about Covid especially social distancing. As for a one term gov, I will wait to see our options because I am not a  1 topic voter. I am curious do you just dislike him because of Covid or other things also? 

As a registered Dem., I still voted for him. Andrew Gilliam was a joke of a candidate. I hoped for the best. Surprisingly, I like most of what he's done so far. From fighting for the use of smokable pot to getting rid of some ridiculous licence requirements for certain occupations. Ex. It was difficult to get a license just to braid hair. He helped food truck vendors keep their businesses when brick and mortar restaurants tried to limit their areas of business. Also one of the few Republicans who provided raises to state employees. This, though is too serious a matter for him to follow trump's "lead". You're are right to wait to see what options we have, but this is too big of a deal to forget his bumbling of this situation. The " we have more positive tests cuz we're testing more" line just sticks in my craw. That's too trump-like for me. He really can't believe that comment makes sense. I hope.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Dopey

[johnnywo]

So California is the Atlanta Falcons of COVID?

[Orlando Tim]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

As a registered Dem., I still voted for him. Andrew Gilliam was a joke of a candidate. I hoped for the best. Surprisingly, I like most of what he's done so far. From fighting for the use of smokable pot to getting rid of some ridiculous licence requirements for certain occupations. Ex. It was difficult to get a license just to braid hair. He helped food truck vendors keep their businesses when brick and mortar restaurants tried to limit their areas of business. Also one of the few Republicans who provided raises to state employees. This, though is too serious a matter for him to follow trump's "lead". You're are right to wait to see what options we have, but this is too big of a deal to forget his bumbling of this situation. The " we have more positive tests cuz we're testing more" line just sticks in my craw. That's too trump-like for me. He really can't believe that comment makes sense. I hope.

You are very reasonable and therefore you will be no fun to argue with.?

[LABILLBACKER]

Half the Marlin team decided to break the rules and go out. Every other team has no cases. Just follow the damn rules and you can get thru a season. Its physically impossible to have a bubble environment for both Baseball and Football. 

[transplantbillsfan]

NYC is by far the most densely populated city in our country.

 

That combined with European visitors bringing Covid through the back door of the East Coast while everyone had their eyes on China is the reason for the explosion of deaths and cases in NYC and surrounding areas in that first month or 2.

 

But there's no denying that what Cuomo has done in NY since that initial outbreak has been some of the best leadership we've seen in this country since the Pandemic began... probably longer.

Edited July 30, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[LabattBlue]

19 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

 Its physically impossible to have a bubble environment for both Baseball and Football. 

...and hockey and basketball.  They can "bubble" for the conclusion of this season, but come the late fall/early winter, it will not be an option for the 20-21 seasons.

[Dragoon]

Ya know whats doomed to failure? Any plan ever that negates all potentials for danger. 

[Locomark]

This may be the ultimate test of team and local culture. Those teams who really want to win and stay healthy will do whatever it takes to do so and will treat Covid just like they treat their diet and working out and learning their playbook. Those teams that blow it off as an inconvenience will more likely suffer and catch it. It’s just too contagious to avoid it if people don’t buy in and purposefully try to follow the guidelines. 

[Mango]

39 minutes ago, Locomark said:

This may be the ultimate test of team and local culture. Those teams who really want to win and stay healthy will do whatever it takes to do so and will treat Covid just like they treat their diet and working out and learning their playbook. Those teams that blow it off as an inconvenience will more likely suffer and catch it. It’s just too contagious to avoid it if people don’t buy in and purposefully try to follow the guidelines. 

A Rex Ryan team would have 39 cases, 12 hospitalizations, and a dead ball boy by now. 

[Buddo]

7 hours ago, Locomark said:

This may be the ultimate test of team and local culture. Those teams who really want to win and stay healthy will do whatever it takes to do so and will treat Covid just like they treat their diet and working out and learning their playbook. Those teams that blow it off as an inconvenience will more likely suffer and catch it. It’s just too contagious to avoid it if people don’t buy in and purposefully try to follow the guidelines. 

 

Good points.

 

Now if we could just get people all over the world to adopt the same approach, we might get to see the end of this, sooner, rather than later.

 

'Flattening the curve' was really necessary early on, as everywhere was in serious danger of being overwhelmed by cases. That isn't to say that the curve shouldn't be kept so, at all.

 

Part of the problems are related to countries not being prepared for how quickly covid19 could spread, and any of their 'track and trace' systems, simply couldn't keep up, for a whole variety of reasons, from underfunding, to a lack of a solid test.

 

As regards sports in europe, part of the reason why they have been able to continue to play games (eventually), is due to both extensive testing of players, and the simple fact that generally, people have been pretty good with observing lockdowns and social distancing etc. That isn't to say they are happy about it, but they are, mostly, doing it.  It needs to be said that it wouldn't have happened if the curves in much of Europe hadn't been flattened to a large extent, meaning that there actually was the opportunity to get back to some semblance of tracking and tracing, being worthwhile.

 

It also has to be said, that unlike in the US, Europe hasn't generally been politicizing responses to the virus. There are criticisms, for sure, but overall, people are simply trying to do the right thing first, and get around to having inquiries, etc. once the sh1t isn't still hitting the fan. Politicians are making concerns known, for 'future reference' but aren't necessarily going full bore about things, in part because the people wouldn't want that, but also out of a sense that the pandemic needs to be overcome first and foremost.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

7 hours ago, Mango said:

A Rex Ryan team would have 39 cases, 12 hospitalizations, and a dead ball boy by now. 

And then he would said how great of a job he was doing and if there was a different coach in charge, they would have 50 cases.  
 

and there was a time that If you told me there would be no sports for months, I would have been in a really bad place.  But I actually did alright during that time.  But I can’t imagine not having football and the Bills.  But I don’t know how you do this without a bubble in a sport like football.  This is going to be so hard and I’m trying so hard to be positive.  It takes one idiot to bring down a team. 

Edited July 31, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[PromoTheRobot]

 

Oh well. At least Buffalo got some upgraded lights.

[Royale with Cheese]

On 7/28/2020 at 10:10 AM, Seasons1992 said:

 

Exactly why I said they need to start one month later this year. Bubble up in September and prepare for that all next month, and then start October. 

I bet you won’t say it to their face!

[YoloinOhio]

Doomed if this is what the players do 

 

 

[Chaos]

On 7/29/2020 at 7:50 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

NYC is by far the most densely populated city in our country.

 

That combined with European visitors bringing Covid through the back door of the East Coast while everyone had their eyes on China is the reason for the explosion of deaths and cases in NYC and surrounding areas in that first month or 2.

 

But there's no denying that what Cuomo has done in NY since that initial outbreak has been some of the best leadership we've seen in this country since the Pandemic began... probably longer.

it can be denied 

[SCBills]

I know we talk about the “politicization” of COVID, and that’s absolutely real, but in regards to that spreading it... how?  I mean, really, are you all going out and seeing massive amounts of people not wearing masks in public places?   I don’t.... and I live in Atlanta, which has been a hot spot.  Masks, literally, everywhere. ....and it’s been this way for months, yet here we are.  
 

Parts of Europe are behind where some states are in re-opening, and in reality that’s all this is.  
 

Densely populated areas with people not locking down and this will spread.   Masks and distancing help, but re-opening is the catalyst.   
 

I suppose re-opening is also political, but unless we all want to be NYC, where they had an insane amount of death, locked down, stayed locked down, and are still pretty locked down while businesses and restaurants are going under left and right, this is kind of just something we all have to deal with. 

[Nelius]

MLB is over. My fantasy team is a growing list of Covid inactives. Wait until Trout opts out now that he's a dad. Unless they get some scabs there's no way they can finish the season. And didn't they shut down minor league baseball entirely? No idea what all of those guys are doing, but it's clearly just not worth it. Bubble or bust.

 

Shame because the Rockies don't look too bad right now.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Nelius

[mannc]

On 7/28/2020 at 7:21 AM, Seasons1992 said:

 

England has done vastly better than the US has.

Really?  In what sense?  

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Really?  In what sense?  

 

 

 

The sense that they have it under control right now, with cases and deaths way way down. 

 

We, you may have noted, do not.

[Seasons1992]

11 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I bet you won’t say it to their face!

 

As long as I'm 8' away, I'll do it.

4 hours ago, mannc said:

Really?  In what sense?  

 

 

Here's America, where we do EVERYTHING bigger than anyone else:

 

 

And here's the UK:

 

 

 

[mannc]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

The sense that they have it under control right now, with cases and deaths way way down. 

 

We, you may have noted, do not.

UK has more CV19 deaths per capita than the USA.  How is that doing a better job?  

The fact that they have it “under control” now is probably because they are approaching some form of herd immunity, similar to what seems to be happening in NYC.  At any rate, the US is much bigger and diverse (in every way) than the UK and it’s difficult to generalize about the current course of the disease in the country as a whole.