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matter2003

Has MLB shown a "non-bubble" plan is doomed for failure?

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

You seem to know a lot about a virus that most medical professionals are still trying to figure out....

 

Do you think your description is a bit dramatic?.... If that's your view of COVID, I imagine if I ask you to describe Ebola, you'd just scream-type hieroglyphics.  

 

No, they have figured it out quite a bit about it in record time no less and continue to publish their findings. Significant studies and research comes out pretty much weekly.  I read most of them(my Mom was in Medical Research for 50+ years and I grew up reading reports in medical journals, so it runs in my blood apparently), which means I am learning about what they are finding shortly after they publish the reports. 

 

And with  more they find, in general, the worse it gets from a long term health perspective.

 

Ebola is very treatable/curable now actually...and it also is too deadly for its own good in terms of being able to spread to large portions of the population. Outbreaks are typically very localized and able to controlled much easier.

 

https://www.wired.com/story/ebola-is-now-curable-heres-how-the-new-treatments-work/

 

Edited by matter2003

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1 hour ago, SCBills said:

I mean, congrats, NY hasn't yet reached to the re-opening levels in NYC of places that are seeing spikes, so I guess we'll see how this plays out if they ever do.   

 

When NY does re-open, THEN people are going to more accurately judge how well NY did with the virus. The number of small businesses (owners, employees, their families) permanently wiped out by the extended NY shutdown will be devastating to see. It's not obvious now because everything is shut down. But it will be.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Watkins101 said:

Looking at only the response post covid, I think the NHL had at least as good, if not better response. The NHL has already taken care of the cap crisis of next year with revenue lost in the new CBA, by using a flat cap the next 2 years, as well as making an effective bubble for the playoffs.

Looking at only the response post covid, I think the NHL had at least as good, if not better response. The NHL has already taken care of the cap crisis of next year with revenue lost in the new CBA, by using a flat cap the next 2 years, as well as making an effective bubble for the playoffs.

Which they basically copied from the NBA. So far they are both doing well but “how the bubble will operate” was an NBA plan first. The NBA too will be rolling with a flat cap for next season at roughly $109M with a $123M cap line. Additionally, they will be able to sustain long term much better because they have alternative revenue streams everywhere. Many of those are still untapped. They will start pulling those levers over the next few years to offset the lost revenue of no fans. 
 

The NHL has done a really nice job in all of this. They took the right approach though. “See what the NBA does and copy it.” That is a tried and true formula in pro sports. 

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1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Which they basically copied from the NBA. So far they are both doing well but “how the bubble will operate” was an NBA plan first. The NBA too will be rolling with a flat cap for next season at roughly $109M with a $123M cap line. Additionally, they will be able to sustain long term much better because they have alternative revenue streams everywhere. Many of those are still untapped. They will start pulling those levers over the next few years to offset the lost revenue of no fans. 
 

The NHL has done a really nice job in all of this. They took the right approach though. “See what the NBA does and copy it.” That is a tried and true formula in pro sports. 

European soccer has done fine without a bubble, so it isn't the only path to success.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

When NY does re-open, THEN people are going to more accurately judge how well NY did with the virus. The number of small businesses (owners, employees, their families) permanently wiped out by the extended NY shutdown will be devastating to see. It's not obvious now because everything is shut down. But it will be.  

 

 

 

NY HAS reopened.  Most things are up and running.  There are exceptions, sure like Gyms and Malls are still closed, and there are strict regulations in terms of capacity limits, but other than that places are open.  We did it smart and in regions and 4 phases and were ready to stop the progress at any phase in a region or even go backwards if we saw case counts rise. In general it progressed smoothly and without many hiccups in most regions. NYC was the last to hit phase 4 and they did so last week or the week before I believe.

 

Oh yeah, we wear masks here too. Just saying.

Edited by matter2003

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21 minutes ago, MJS said:

European soccer has done fine without a bubble, so it isn't the only path to success.

 

Yes, but for that to have any chance of succeeding the surrounding countries must not have huge case count surges and the virus must at least be under control there.

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56 minutes ago, MJS said:

European soccer has done fine without a bubble, so it isn't the only path to success.

Certainly but they aren’t operating with the same challenges of the US and our 4.5M cases or whatever it is. Agree though and I LOVED having the premier league back.

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6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Certainly but they aren’t operating with the same challenges of the US and our 4.5M cases or whatever it is. Agree though and I LOVED having the premier league back.

We'll just have to see how it goes. I don't feel like we need to write the season off like others do. There's still time before the season and time for adjustments. Obviously the ship has sailed for a bubble, but that just isn't feasible anyway with the thousands of players and other personel in the NFL.

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Posted (edited)

How do you just Pause ONE TEAMs season?  How will they handle that, forfeit all games they cannot play?

Edited by MAJBobby

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1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

NY HAS reopened.  Most things are up and running.  There are exceptions, sure like Gyms and Malls are still closed, and there are strict regulations in terms of capacity limits, but other than that places are open.  We did it smart and in regions and 4 phases and were ready to stop the progress at any phase in a region or even go backwards if we saw case counts rise. In general it progressed smoothly and without many hiccups in most regions. NYC was the last to hit phase 4 and they did so last week or the week before I believe.

 

Oh yeah, we wear masks here too. Just saying.

To state NY did it smart tells me something-you live in NY and don't understand why people keep moving. NY handled it terribly and while other states are not perfect the example of what not to do it NY and NJ.

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29 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

To state NY did it smart tells me something-you live in NY and don't understand why people keep moving. NY handled it terribly and while other states are not perfect the example of what not to do it NY and NJ.

 

If we handled it terribly why have the case counts stayed low for 2 months while other states cases exploded?

 

 If you can't comprehend the differences between the initial response, which wasn't the greatest, although hindsight is 20/20 and a lot of information we have now wasn't available then, and the followup response to get things under control and keep them there then I don't know what to tell you.

 

What we have done here while reopening simply works, all of the numbers show it works, and anyone who objectively is looking at the data between what we have done versus what other states did clearly can see that we are the model for what to do.

 

Fauci basically gave us a shout out and said as much.  But I know...he doesn't know anything either and it's all his fault the other states didn't listen.

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12 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

If we handled it terribly why have the case counts stayed low for 2 months while other states cases exploded?

 

 If you can't comprehend the differences between the initial response, which wasn't the greatest, although hindsight is 20/20 and a lot of information we have now wasn't available then, and the followup response to get things under control and keep them there then I don't know what to tell you.

 

What we have done here while reopening simply works, all of the numbers show it works, and anyone who objectively is looking at the data between what we have done versus what other states did clearly can see that we are the model for what to do.

 

Fauci basically gave us a shout out and said as much.  But I know...he doesn't know anything either and it's all his fault the other states didn't listen.

I live in Florida and wish we had not reopened the bars, and recognize that as a mistake but your defense of a completely inept response is mindboggling. Your state has 32,000 deaths to Florida's 6000. It is not hind sight to say putting sick people in with the most vulnerable is a terrible idea and it was known in early march, because of Italy, that being older made you more vulnerable. I will not argue past this because you and I value different numbers, I think deaths is the most important by a wide margin, you clearly think a case with minor symptoms is equal otherwise you would not mention NY as doing well.

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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

How do you just Pause ONE TEAMs season?  How will they handle that, forfeit all games they cannot play?

 

The only idea I have would be to them like mathematically eliminated PPD games in a normal pennant race and eliminate the Marlins from playoff contention.  You can't really forfeit them because that unfairly gives the Marlins opponent an advantage in the standings.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I live in Florida and wish we had not reopened the bars, and recognize that as a mistake but your defense of a completely inept response is mindboggling. Your state has 32,000 deaths to Florida's 6000. It is not hind sight to say putting sick people in with the most vulnerable is a terrible idea and it was known in early march, because of Italy, that being older made you more vulnerable. I will not argue past this because you and I value different numbers, I think deaths is the most important by a wide margin, you clearly think a case with minor symptoms is equal otherwise you would not mention NY as doing well.

 

And if Florida had what is going on right now in March by September they would have 50K+ deaths. Looking at deaths alone doesn't make any sense when you are comparing a time when nothing was known about the virus, no treatments existed and they had no standard protocols to follow and pretty much made them up as they went along to now when they know quite a bit about the virus and are learning more every day, have multiple treatment options that help prevent the overaggressive immune responses and/or prevent the viral replication that overwhelms the body and have standard protocols to follow.

 

In what universe should the death totals be equal? If they weren't vastly imbalanced there would be a severe problem. But Florida is only beginning their journey...the daily death totals have started increasing and will likely pass 300 a day in a month or so and stay there for a while.

 

And when you say "minor symptoms" I hope you realize that even people who are asymptomatic are found to have something resembling walking pneumonia even if they feel fine...some probably have oxygen levels in the 60s and 70s...clearly they are not "fine" even if they don't exhibit serious symptoms. 

 

Will you still think its minor when 20-30% of these people have permanent cardiac damage? How many deaths are going to happen 6 months from now when they randomly have heart attacks? 

How confident in the death totals are you? Are they counting excess deaths as COVID deaths like they did in NY? So if an extra 500 people are randomly dying in their hones from unknown causes every day like they were in NY at the height of the epidemic over 30 year baseline numbers are they being considered COVID deaths?

 

Realistically the only way to know what the "real" death totals are from this is to take historical data for a time period over many years and compare this year's time period and look at excess deaths. From the reports that initially were circulating Florida has not been counting these excess deaths as COVID deaths which means you are not even comparing similar numbers at this point and pretty much knowingly "massaging" a number to be low that you know is much higher.

Edited by matter2003

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5 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

You can eyeroll all you want. There is no way if you look at the graph I posted above that you keep levels that low and flat for 2 months without doing something right. In fact just the other day we had the lowest new case counts, hospitalizations and deaths in New York State since mid March.

 

 It all comes down to how much buy in the people here have towards doing things right and stricter guidelines...there are some things like gyms that still aren't reopened here in NY...malls still aren't open, etc..

 

We also opened in controlled phases divided into regions where each region had to meet 7 key metrics at each phase for 2 straight weeks before going to the next phase.  Each region also had to have a designated number of contact tracers prior to even starting phase 1 based on population.

 

I just don't think Cali had the buy in from the people nor the stricter phased guidelines, so like the other states some places were stricter and some were looser. Are gyms open there? Bars? Malls? 

 

In effect, most of these places were simply too aggressive and fast with their reopening efforts where New York was very cautious.  It turned out we were right and they were wrong.

 

And you people in other places eyerolling are the reason we can't go to Canada still. Get your ***** together.

There’s 32,645 dead who probably disagree with you. 

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Aren’t the Marlins the only team with any positive tests since Friday ? Juan Soto has now tested negative 6 times. mlb has done like 6400 tests since then and all negative except for marlins. 

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35 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

And if Florida had what is going on right now in March by September they would have 50K+ deaths. Looking at deaths alone doesn't make any sense when you are comparing a time when nothing was known about the virus, no treatments existed and they had no standard protocols to follow and pretty much made them up as they went along to now when they know quite a bit about the virus and are learning more every day, have multiple treatment options that help prevent the overaggressive immune responses and/or prevent the viral replication that overwhelms the body and have standard protocols to follow.

 

In what universe should the death totals be equal? If they weren't vastly imbalanced there would be a severe problem. But Florida is only beginning their journey...the daily death totals have started increasing and will likely pass 300 a day in a month or so and stay there for a while.

 

And when you say "minor symptoms" I hope you realize that even people who are asymptomatic are found to have something resembling walking pneumonia even if they feel fine...some probably have oxygen levels in the 60s and 70s...clearly they are not "fine" even if they don't exhibit serious symptoms. 

 

Will you still think its minor when 20-30% of these people have permanent cardiac damage? How many deaths are going to happen 6 months from now when they randomly have heart attacks? 

How confident in the death totals are you? Are they counting excess deaths as COVID deaths like they did in NY? So if an extra 500 people are randomly dying in their hones from unknown causes every day like they were in NY at the height of the epidemic over 30 year baseline numbers are they being considered COVID deaths?

 

Realistically the only way to know what the "real" death totals are from this is to take historical data for a time period over many years and compare this year's time period and look at excess deaths. From the reports that initially were circulating Florida has not been counting these excess deaths as COVID deaths which means you are not even comparing similar numbers at this point and pretty much knowingly "massaging" a number to be low that you know is much higher.

Short version- we will not agree because you think 48 states got lucky and NY did not. There is one reason that NY had such an absurdly high number- Cuomo sent sick into nursing homes when it was known age was the largest factor in death. If it was not known why did 48 other governors not do the same thing? As I stated Florida has not been perfect but I will use death rate as my biggest indicator of proper response.

7 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

There’s 32,645 dead who probably disagree with you. 

If you notice my discussion with him total deaths is not a good way to determine leadership, in fact from what I can gather it is the only thing that does not matter in leadership. 

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7 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Honestly it is not looking good right now for how the NFL wants to do things.  Baseball has a major issue after a few games with games having to be cancelled and the Marlins with 14 players testing positive...they also admitted they knowingly played a game with 4 players that had tested positive...I mean how is this even possible that the MLB didn't know about those positive tests??

 

The NFL has far more players on each team than the MLB, granted they are not travelling as much but they are still doing the same thing, going in and out of places that may be hot spots at any given time...I just don't see how this is going to work the way they want it to...kind of similar how I don't see how these schools plans to reopen are going to work they way they want it to.

 

I can foresee at least one team having 15-20 positive tests within a few weeks of starting the season and a game or two has to be cancelled and then they have to re-evaluate their plans and may have to have an extended in-season shutdown to come up with a better plan, like going to multiple bubbles and having games played more evenly through Thursday-Sunday at the same facility or have only a few facilities hosting games...

 

I just don't see any way where we complete a season without serious issues and/or in season shutdowns with the current plan they are using.

It shows people won't distance themselves no matter how much money is involved be it prostitutes or meeting up for drugs.

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Posted (edited)

Anyone who thinks the NFLPA is going to agree to a bubble for 4-5 months is delusional.  Never going to happen.  The only reason the NBA and NHL players agreed to a bubble, is because it is for a shorter time frame to finish the existing season. 

Edited by LabattBlue
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57 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Short version- we will not agree because you think 48 states got lucky and NY did not. There is one reason that NY had such an absurdly high number- Cuomo sent sick into nursing homes when it was known age was the largest factor in death. If it was not known why did 48 other governors not do the same thing? As I stated Florida has not been perfect but I will use death rate as my biggest indicator of proper response.

If you notice my discussion with him total deaths is not a good way to determine leadership, in fact from what I can gather it is the only thing that does not matter in leadership. 

 

Yes and my point is that with your case count numbers where they are and with no knowledge, treatment options or protocols you would have 50K dead or more in the same time because you have higher case counts. 

 

Stop pretending nursing home deaths made up 25K of that total. They didn't. They made up about 6K of that total. No argument that was idiotic from me.

 

Stop pretending that Florida is giving an accurate death count total. They aren't. I mean they fired their head of the State Health Dept because she refused to put out fake numbers. They aren't adding in excess deaths like NY state was. So your death count is a fake number and probably right now you can add 100 a day to it at least, and it just and all time high of 193 today. That number will continue rising. We know deaths lag case counts by 4 weeks or so, sometimes more.

 

Stop pretending Florida is doing something smart when they are shattering daily records for case counts day after day when they know they have the oldest population in the US. It's only a matter of time before it starts running through those old people communities like wildfire.

 

 

 

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