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Off-season: Expected and Surprise Cuts


ngbills

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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Star is a culture fit and a leader, and he fills his role competently. We're overpaying him a couple million, big deal. We didn't lose any games this year because he was on the field. Why would we cut him to save $2.3 million?

 

Roberts was our most valuable special teams player. McDermott preaches the importance of ball security and he hasn't muffed a single punt or kickoff. Why would you risk losing that value for $2 million?

 

We aren't going to find a replacement for Hauschka. He was fine after a short string of bad games. We should have won our first playoff game in over 20 years because of him. What are you even thinking here?

 

Long is good offensive line depth. What does cutting him accomplish?

 

The Bills have $89 million in available cap space!! It's the 4th most cap space in the league this year - only the Dolphins, Bucs, and Colts have more. We're in a really good spot. Why are we cutting decent players to save more money?

Hey Happy, don't worry, be happy.  Only a couple of these will get the pink slips.  Not Murph, Star, and definitely NOT Hauschka.  This guy is better than average, and maybe great next year.  I think we'll rely less on a kicker next year because we'll average more than 20 points a game.  Everything will focus on getting Josh some weapons and protection.  Go Bills!!  

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I don't see them Cutting Star at all, IMO he stepped up overall play the second half of the season.

 

Hughes may be an interesting story. His numbers took a dive in 2019, he's on the wrong side of 31 and is the 2nd or 3rd highest paid player on the team.

 

I think either DiMarco or Smith gets cut, but not both.

I do think they bring in stiff competition at K and P

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On 1/17/2020 at 2:26 PM, Rc2catch said:

I think the surprise is NOBODY gets cut. 
It’s possible everyone currently under contract makes it to preseason. 

You don’t cut players until someone steps up and takes their job unless you need the money. We do not. 
Might as well load up in the draft, sign who we are going to sign between our guys and free agents. Let the best battle it out. 
Once you have a good idea of your top 53 you can dangle guys for draft picks, trade them for possible depth players, or just outright cut them. What’s the rush to get them off the team? 

 

I'm not so sure I'm sold on this patient, thoughtful, sensible plan you've concocted.

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7 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

I'm not so sure I'm sold on this patient, thoughtful, sensible plan you've concocted.

Well no.. By the time we sign all the top free agents available that 90 million will be gone we have to cut immediately or won’t get all the top guys. Beane will be asleep at the wheel 

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On 1/17/2020 at 2:53 PM, Royale with Cheese said:

 

They would save money by cutting him but I don't think they do it.

since they would have to replace him, the only way you would save any money would be to sign a player, at his position for less than 2.3mm. i don't think that is happening.  

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20 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

What's crazy is alot of people are saying we will spend nowhere near that 90M. Maybe not even 50M. What's the point of having all this cap if we only use 50%? This isn't roll over minutes. Go get Ngakoue,  Conklin and either Hooper or Hunter Henry? There will still be plenty of cake leftover. 

 

I think Beane will continue to do what he has already done concerning cap spending.  He will keep a reserve of 20-25 million this coming year

just like last year.

 

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not argumentative at all, good questions.

 

Morse is the 2nd highest paid center in the league by AAV and guaranteed $$.  That's the Deep End by most people's measure.  If that's not a Big Guy unsure what your definition of big guy is?

 

As for what I assume, that's my interpretation of what Beane said.  Joe B. had a similar interpretation in his Athletic article
“We probably won’t be spending at the deep end of the pool that we did last year, where we were,” Beane said. “Hopefully, Josh (Allen) continues to ascend and hopefully he makes us pay him some of those hefty salaries at that time. Which we want to be able to be in cap strength to handle that, as well, and not all of a sudden sign a quarterback and then have to release three other players just to stay under the cap. So, it’s not just that $89 million that you’re referring to this year, it’s making sure we’re cap strong in ’21, ’22 and beyond.”
And further:

“You can get guys that are minimum contract guys. You can get guys that are low-tier type, kind of middle of the road,” Beane said. “Those sometimes are as important or more important than those big-ticket items.”

Believe me I'd like to be wrong.  I want us to go for a FA TE and a FA OL, best we can get.   While we're at it, FA pass rusher be nice.

Beane tried shopping at Kmart for OL in 2018, and finally saw some success when he moved up to Kohls (with Morse as one excursion to Neiman Marcus), but still not quite enough.  Spain was available for us to sign because Tennessee upgraded to Saffold.  We're speculating about FA and the draft after we couldn't run between tackles all season, while Tennessee is playing for the Conference Championship on the strength of their run game, starting with improved run blocking.  You don't need to be a Football Genius to see how important a pass-catching TE with reliable hands is to the SF 49ers, to KC, and to Baltimore.  Beane tried Kohls there with Kroft.  Need to upgrade, Beane.  Not sure Knox is It; are we betting the season that he takes a step, or that Kroft gets and stays fully healthy and breaks his pattern of "Loyal Knight" to become a difference-maker all season?

 

Beane talks about saving cap to pay Allen those big bucks if he proves out, but if we don't give him targets, better protection, and a consistent run game we'll be left saying "perhaps...." and having to make a tough choice after next season.

 

Funny how interpretations go concerning what Beane said.  

I took it as he won't be spending a lot "in total" in FA this year like last year.

Last year he spent a lot of money bringing in a lot of new players and like he said I don't see that happening again.

I don't think it takes a "big" type player signing off the table.

It was shocking none of these professional sports writers didn't ask a follow up to the term "deep end".

FWIW.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few month.

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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I get it.  He's not going to line up to set the new market for a DT with Mario Williams or Marcel Dareus.

 

My point is there's such a thing as being too cost-conscious.  We saw that in 2018, and Beane now admits he didn't do enough to bring in OL talent and playmakers and Josh's development suffered for it - that he was cap-limited but could have done more.

 

In 2019 he did more and the offense has took a step from #30 to #23, but IMO if he wants another step, he has still not done enough and it's not just at WR.  Elsewhere I pointed out that we are #24 in OL spending and that the two just might be related.  The playoff team that is similar to us in OL spending (49ers) has 2 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder playing on the line.  While McDermott and Beane are looking for mistakes made in Carolina where they can chart a different course, I hope he considers under-investment in OL and offensive skill players (TE, RB) as a possibility.

I agree, and the point about the TE is a very good one. The best offenses have ‘em, and Allen needs a reliable one going into season 3. That’s a huge year in his ultimate evaluation, and Knox is still a maybe. I know they’re not going to go out and get a George Kittle, but an upgrade with reliable hands is critical. 

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8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

They should not cut Long. Good Oline depth is almost non-existent around the league. You don't get rid of it to save $3m unless you need to in my opinion. 

 

In the same vein I wouldn't cut Ty Nsekhe but he might be a candidate for the surprise cut list too. 

Some folk seem to think making holes in your roster before you have a position filled is a good idea, just don’t get that myself, and like you said, quality depth on O lines is rare in the league. Ya can’t cut people without a REAL PLAN in place.

 

Go Bills!!!

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6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

Funny how interpretations go concerning what Beane said.  

I took it as he won't be spending a lot "in total" in FA this year like last year.

Last year he spent a lot of money bringing in a lot of new players and like he said I don't see that happening again.

I don't think it takes a "big" type player signing off the table.

It was shocking none of these professional sports writers didn't ask a follow up to the term "deep end".

FWIW.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few month.

 

That would have been useful, indeed.

 

ESPN had an article about looming FA decisions in which they said Yannick Ngakoue wants $22M annually.  Eeep.  I don't see the Beanster going for that.

 

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On 1/17/2020 at 1:16 PM, ngbills said:

Well $20M is going to Yannick Ngakoue. Trent Murphy pays for a big chunk of that. 

 

Then $10M+ to Conklin. Spencer Long savings will help with that. 

 

Kroft helps pay for Hooper and his $10M.

 

Then we are in good shape headed to the draft and a few other lower priced free agents. Get AJ Green on a short deal if possible, Robbie Anderson, and draft a WR. 

Anyone have McBean  email address????

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15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That would have been useful, indeed.

 

ESPN had an article about looming FA decisions in which they said Yannick Ngakoue wants $22M annually.  Eeep.  I don't see the Beanster going for that.

 

 

Neither do I.  Beane doesn't seem to be the type of GM that goes for the huge contracts in FA like that.

I know he paid for Mitch Morse (highest paid Center) but that was half of what Yannick wants and Josh needed a good center desperately.

 

Replying to another reply you had about Lee Smith and Tyler Kroft.

I agree with your comment about Kroft possibly being let go and Smith staying.

If Kroft was let go and Beane looked for another vet TE that could replace Smith's "leadership" role then that would open up other options

concerning Smith's future.  My point was none of us know what Beane and McDermott feel about Lee Smith's overall leadership and playing worth.

 

I do think a big FA TE signing is possible.

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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:


Why, in your view?

I just don't see them dropping any FA coin on a TE. I think Kroft fit in well with Mcd's culture, and could be the veteran presence in that group if they move on from Lee Smith. I think they feel Kroft never got a chance to show what he can do on the field and with the cap room they have, why cut him? I think they'll go with Knox, Sweeney and Kroft.

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On 1/17/2020 at 2:16 PM, ngbills said:

Well $20M is going to Yannick Ngakoue. Trent Murphy pays for a big chunk of that. 

 

Then $10M+ to Conklin. Spencer Long savings will help with that. 

 

Kroft helps pay for Hooper and his $10M.

 

Then we are in good shape headed to the draft and a few other lower priced free agents. Get AJ Green on a short deal if possible, Robbie Anderson, and draft a WR. 

He aint worth $20 mil.

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2 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

He aint worth $20 mil.

I have watched very little of the Jags. I also don’t like the idea of using just stats to pass judgement. However if the Bills are going to shell out the biggest contract in years for the team to one player, it Would seem to me it needs to be someone with proven track record. So far he has one season of 12 sacks the rest are 8-9.5 sacks a season. I trust Beane and McDermott when it comes to defenders. I don’t anticipate them taking a huge swing and missing in FA. 

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On 1/19/2020 at 4:38 PM, Green Lightning said:

I just don't see them dropping any FA coin on a TE. I think Kroft fit in well with Mcd's culture, and could be the veteran presence in that group if they move on from Lee Smith. I think they feel Kroft never got a chance to show what he can do on the field and with the cap room they have, why cut him? I think they'll go with Knox, Sweeney and Kroft.

Kroft is making over $6M per. He has only had one productive year in his career. I think they signed him last year more out of not having anything at the position but is he worth the money? If for $10M you can add Hooper and drop Kroft you have to do that in a heartbeat. Hooper can put up Kroft numbers with his eyes closed. He is a guy you line up outside and its like having another WR out there. I dont know if we could get him, but if you can that is a swap you better make. 

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On 1/17/2020 at 3:03 PM, MJS said:

I'd also be surprised if they cut Murphy. We don't really have a replacement.

 

I get you want to upgrade the position, but I think it's foolish to cut guys when you don't have an upgrade already in place. Now maybe they go to camp and a guy shows he can do that and the Bills decide to cut or trade Murphy. I'd be fine with that.

 

I don't see us moving on from Long. He's quality depth.

 

DiMarco is a cheap special teams and offensive contributor. Not sure I see the point in cutting him just to pay someone else his money to do the same thing and have to learn the system. People are obsessed with cutting him (because he's a FB I guess?). But all indications are that the coaches and teammates love him. He's a leader and he's been a captain.

 

From this I'd cut Kroft and Smith and bring the rest back to compete in camp.

 

I agree.  Plus a bunch of players are due roster bonuses in March.  That includes Star ($1M), Murphy ($500k),  Kroft ($750k+$2M of salary guarantees). Lee Smith ($500k), Hauschka ($250k), Yeldon ($150k) and Roberts ($100k).  


Of that group, Kroft is the guy I see released before that bonus is due.  His contract is ridiculous for his meager contribution.  I’d expect the rest to be here next season. 

 

Long has a contract with team options for this year and next.  It’s doubtful that this one will be picked up unless Morse has a horrible offseason injury before mid-March.  I still don’t understand why he got that contract with the Morse signing.  It seemed excessive as insurance. 

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7 hours ago, ngbills said:

Kroft is making over $6M per. He has only had one productive year in his career. I think they signed him last year more out of not having anything at the position but is he worth the money? If for $10M you can add Hooper and drop Kroft you have to do that in a heartbeat. Hooper can put up Kroft numbers with his eyes closed. He is a guy you line up outside and its like having another WR out there. I dont know if we could get him, but if you can that is a swap you better make. 

Yeah Sportrac is saying 5 year $50 million but well see. I'd take your scenario we're it the case but I think they like Knox as their #1. I just think they are going to put their money on signing our own and   some midling depth players for competition. 

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Cutting Star makes on sence this year 7.8 dead to save 2.2.  Some people are acting like he cant play.  If he could be replaced for 2.2 great, but I would bet it would take 5 plus to replace him.  2021 it could become a serious conversation with a 5 million savings.  

 

Cutting a FB to save 1.8 when not up against the cap?  Considering his special teams play, it could be difficult to to replace him and save something.  

 

If looking for cap casualties that look to make sence I see only 3 at this time Kroft saving 5 with 1.6 dead, Murphy saving 7 with 1.75 dead and Nsekhe saving 3.7 with 1.5 dead.  Not saying they all should be cut but they free up enough to help bring in some upgrades at their position.  

 

It seem like many are quick to want to cut a guy when the replacement is not on the horizon.  

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59 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I agree.  Plus a bunch of players are due roster bonuses in March.  That includes Star ($1M), Murphy ($500k),  Kroft ($750k+$2M of salary guarantees). Lee Smith ($500k), Hauschka ($250k), Yeldon ($150k) and Roberts ($100k).  


Of that group, Kroft is the guy I see released before that bonus is due.  His contract is ridiculous for his meager contribution.  I’d expect the rest to be here next season. 

 

Long has a contract with team options for this year and next.  It’s doubtful that this one will be picked up unless Morse has a horrible offseason injury before mid-March.  I still don’t understand why he got that contract with the Morse signing.  It seemed excessive as insurance. 

Long signed before free agency started because he was released. The Bills wouldn't have known at the time who they would be able to sign, including Morse. Plus he offers positional flexibility because he can play any interior spot.

 

I think he's a valuable backup. But I'm not sure if his contract is favorable or not for such a role.

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45 minutes ago, MJS said:

Long signed before free agency started because he was released. The Bills wouldn't have known at the time who they would be able to sign, including Morse. Plus he offers positional flexibility because he can play any interior spot.

 

I think he's a valuable backup. But I'm not sure if his contract is favorable or not for such a role.

 

Long is fundamentally getting paid peanuts for a decent OLman to keep around as insurance - $1.55M this year.  That's like Bodine bucks.  He's got a bunch of per-game roster and incentive bonuses that give him a higher cap number.  Given that it's relatively cheap, even if they bring in some competition to camp or draft a guy, I think Long makes sense to keep around as a quality backup.

 

He's listed as a C; he clearly lost the backup C job to Jon Feliciano, but he's an ideal backup because as you note, he can play all 3 interior positions.

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With the current state of the roster, I don’t think there’s any ‘expected’ cuts.  

 

That being said, i wouldn’t be surprised if Murphy, Kroft, Long or Barkley got cut. 

 

Anyone outside of that would surprise me. 

 

People need to realize that Star isn’t going anywhere until next offseason.  He’s more valuable than the amount of cap he would save us at this point. It’s next offseason where the dead cap really really drops off and then he becomes more expendable. 

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Pat Dimcarco ($2.35M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

 

Why does everyone want to cut this guy? Do they want to do away with the position? Have Yeldon block for the run? It isn't like he's breaking the bank. Just like Andre Roberts, he fits a role, gets paid little, and does his job. 

 

1579672917112.jpg

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18 hours ago, ngbills said:

Kroft is making over $6M per. He has only had one productive year in his career. I think they signed him last year more out of not having anything at the position but is he worth the money? If for $10M you can add Hooper and drop Kroft you have to do that in a heartbeat. Hooper can put up Kroft numbers with his eyes closed. He is a guy you line up outside and its like having another WR out there. I dont know if we could get him, but if you can that is a swap you better make. 

 

Cutting Kroft only makes sense IF you can actually sign Hooper plus a quality veteran WR.   Otherwise, Kroft can remain useful in multiple TE passing sets that are becoming popular.   Allen needs some bigger targets, and if healthy, Kroft can be one. 

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11 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Cutting Kroft only makes sense IF you can actually sign Hooper plus a quality veteran WR.   Otherwise, Kroft can remain useful in multiple TE passing sets that are becoming popular.   Allen needs some bigger targets, and if healthy, Kroft can be one. 

At his price that is too high to be just useful in multi TE sets. There just seems to be better options - if you can get Hooper or Hunter great. If not then you can find someone to go along with Knox, Sweeney, and Smith or Croom. What upgrade is Kroft really providing to that group? His best year he caught 40 balls for 400 yds. Every other year - 11, 10, 4, and 6 rec's. You dont need to spend $6M on a guy that will catch 10 balls all season.

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17 hours ago, ngbills said:

At his price that is too high to be just useful in multi TE sets. There just seems to be better options - if you can get Hooper or Hunter great. If not then you can find someone to go along with Knox, Sweeney, and Smith or Croom. What upgrade is Kroft really providing to that group? His best year he caught 40 balls for 400 yds. Every other year - 11, 10, 4, and 6 rec's. You dont need to spend $6M on a guy that will catch 10 balls all season.

 

Kroft was plagued by injury most of the season IIRC, a "high ankle sprain" I think, which seems to be an injury that takes a while to recover from.   He only played in 11 games, starting 3.  If he can stay healthy and contribute like so many TEs are doing these days, $6 million would be cheap, so I think that the Bills should give him at through TC to prove he can earn his pay, even if they were to sign somebody like Hooper. 

 

Why are you -- and others -- so worried about Terry Pegula's wallet that you want to cut players when they don't need to be cut just to save relatively few dollars?  There's not some unwritten law somewhere that says that the Bills are only allowed to have 1 good starting-caliber WR or TE or RB, but that seems to be what many Bills fans assume. You cannot build a perennial playoff team with real Super Bowl aspirations by surrounding a few quality players with bottom feeder talent, and good/decent talent costs more than poor talent.  I'm sure the DeBartolo/York or Hunt families aren't quibbling about their profit margins right now.

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On 1/17/2020 at 1:26 PM, Rc2catch said:

I think the surprise is NOBODY gets cut. 
It’s possible everyone currently under contract makes it to preseason. 

You don’t cut players until someone steps up and takes their job unless you need the money. We do not. 
Might as well load up in the draft, sign who we are going to sign between our guys and free agents. Let the best battle it out. 
Once you have a good idea of your top 53 you can dangle guys for draft picks, trade them for possible depth players, or just outright cut them. What’s the rush to get them off the team? 

Yeah, I don't get the hate. I'm not familiar with player contracts and certain cut designations and what not, but why would you devoid your team of talent, instead of just improving the talent. Like, why would you cut guys before camp? Let them all compete and may the best guy make the roster. That's how you create depth and a consistently winning football team. Especially when you start drafting toward the end of rounds. 

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18 hours ago, ngbills said:

At his price that is too high to be just useful in multi TE sets. There just seems to be better options - if you can get Hooper or Hunter great. If not then you can find someone to go along with Knox, Sweeney, and Smith or Croom. What upgrade is Kroft really providing to that group? His best year he caught 40 balls for 400 yds. Every other year - 11, 10, 4, and 6 rec's. You dont need to spend $6M on a guy that will catch 10 balls all season.

Kroft had 14 targets for the season. 
Why is that? 
Is he never open? 
Are they only using Knox as the receiving tight end? 
Kroft is quite big would he not be useful in the red zone? 
Why do you care how much money he makes? 
Keeping him does not hinder any other signings the team wants to make, nor does it hinder any draft prospect they may want to draft. 
They are not signing all the top free agents they don’t need to clear more money off the books do they? What hurt does it cause to take Kroft to camp and possibly into the regular season? They signed Kroft to a nice contract in case they didn’t get much talent for the position, he was hurt and Knox kind of flashed some serious mismatch talent. I could see the argument Knox made him expendable and no longer needed, but then why would you sign another big money free agent tight end to hinder knoxs development? 

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On 1/21/2020 at 10:20 PM, Paulus said:

Pat Dimcarco ($2.35M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

 

Why does everyone want to cut this guy? Do they want to do away with the position? Have Yeldon block for the run? It isn't like he's breaking the bank. Just like Andre Roberts, he fits a role, gets paid little, and does his job. 

 

1579672917112.jpg

You could use an extra TE to block (like Sweeney....who frankly deserved more playing time)

 

And put bigger WR's on the field that can block

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On 1/21/2020 at 6:27 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Long is fundamentally getting paid peanuts for a decent OLman to keep around as insurance - $1.55M this year.  That's like Bodine bucks.  He's got a bunch of per-game roster and incentive bonuses that give him a higher cap number.  Given that it's relatively cheap, even if they bring in some competition to camp or draft a guy, I think Long makes sense to keep around as a quality backup.

 

He's listed as a C; he clearly lost the backup C job to Jon Feliciano, but he's an ideal backup because as you note, he can play all 3 interior positions.

Except Long ISN'T paid peanuts.   His contract is ~$4.2 mil per year.   He was definitely an overpay for insurance.   We did a couple overpays this offseason to make sure that we could field a full and competent team.   And it worked.   

 

We were desperately short of NFL talent in a few areas and "overpaid" a couple times to fix it.  I don't mind some (minor) overpays here and there because it does work to get a guy.  Money talks.

 

Long was an early signee and offered us significant flexibility as an experienced C and G.

Similarly we overpaid for Morse (largest C contract in NFL) who's good not not phenomenal.  

We had nothing at TE and Kroft showed potential with one very solid year.  With a thin free agent pool we gave him an overpay.

 

What I liked from Bean was that he attempted to fix weak areas with MORE than one guy. Yes an overpay, but also other alternatives if that overpay didn't work out.  All to often in our past, we've paid big money for a player and hoped he was good enough.  (spoiler alert: he often wasn't).  Derrek Dockery anyone?      

 

We brought in 157 new Offensive Linemen.   Okay maybe only 9.

We brought in 3 new TE (Kroft, Lee, + high draft pick Knox)

Heck even at WR, we brought in 2 major signings to go with our hopefuls (new guy Duke Williams, old el-busto Zay Jones, optimistic Robert Foster).   Too bad none of the hopefuls worked out.

 

To me it has felt like we've really have brought in insurance AND competition for spots.  Not just assumed that the guy with the biggest contract was going to be the guy going forward. 

 

I like it.

 

 

 

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