QB Grades Through Week 6 Per PFF

[JerseyBills]

42 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

What a couple of tools.  Seriously, you can hear the bias dripping off their tongues.

 

Did they even watch the game?  "Allen is completing passes but he's still not accurate Bills fans"?  What the hell does that even mean?  Are these two morons saying that in all those short pass completions the receivers were having to make circus catches? 

 

They seem concerned that Allen isn't making "Big Plays" but who on that offense are the "Big Play" guys?  Maybe Foster & Singleterry who were both out.  And did these two numbskulls even realize that the Bills were without THREE startling offensive lineman? 

 

I know I should just ignore these guys but it's hard to ignore STUPID when it's in your face. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree.  

I'm trying to find the thread on Twitter where ppl were exposing PFF .. 

 

It's a cool little tool but is Extremely Flawed. Extremely. 

 

Their rankings do not equate to the only stat that matters - Winning. 

 

For example of their flawed system - a QB who lights it up in garbage time , where the D is on prevent and giving the QB easy completions , that QB gets graded the same way as he would in the 1st qtr 

 

Many other examples but bottom line, it's just a flawed system. Their rankings don't change the way I feel about any player at any position

[StHustle]

Soooo..... This whole time it was never about taking the right Josh. WE TOOK THE WRONG ALLEN!!!

[Bangarang]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, methodological concerns with "room for interpretation" right off the top of my mind reading the above:

1) Who is deciding whether or not there are 5 or more rushers and what is the criterion they use?  (BTW .... 5 rushers is not the usual definition of blitz)

 

Seriously? This is just silly on your part.
 

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

2) Passer rating is a controversial statistic to some, but leave that aside and just look at one aspect.  This is how it is calculated:

Passer Rating = 100 *(((MAX(0,MIN((Cmp/Att - 0.3) * 5, 2.375))) + (MAX(0,MIN((Yds/Att - 3) * 0.25, 2.375))) + (MAX(0,MIN((TD/Att) * 20, 2.375))) + (MAX(0,MIN(2.375 - INT/Att * 25, 2.375)))) / 6)

So right off the bat, you can see there is some subjectivity in the choice of this statistic as a methodology as it does not

1) penalize the passer for negative plays such as taking a sack or fumbling

2) credit the passer for positive plays such as rushing for yards.  And in fact that probably has something to do with the fact that Mariota and Winston rate highly there. 

In what world is passer rating a controversial statistic? We certainly don’t seem to have any problem using it when it’s to show howAllen is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter.

[Ta111]

33 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Devil’s Advocate because why not: 

 

those of you who say wins and losses are all that matters, is that how you assess other positional groups too? 
 

if so, should we be content with our entire offensive production? 
 

the people who try to analyze positional players are trying to look at these players in a vacuum. A lot of factors aren’t taken into account, and you should be aware of it, not mad about it. 
 

I get that some people feel the need to defend Allen at all costs, but he is fine, and knows that he has to improve.

that’s what I was trying to get at. There is a small group of people unwilling to acknowledge the fact that Allen has struggled at times. 

I’m more concerned about 4th quarter play when the game is on the line. Most NFL games are decided in the 4th quarter. Let me know who produces in crunch time.

[PJBrown7]

Everything I’ve seen from PFF or interview I’ve heard from them is clearly biased against Josh Allen. It seems that they are more interested in keeping their original narrative then looking objectively. Josh can definitely improve, has improved over last year and is continuing to grow and I’ll take him all day long as our quarterback! Oh and he is accurate. Duh.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

5 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Seriously? This is just silly on your part.
 

In what world is passer rating a controversial statistic? We certainly don’t seem to have any problem using it when it’s to show howAllen is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter.

Get over the Allen thing and focus on everything else, that's what he's trying to say to you. The view of PFF and stats has NOTHING to do with Allen. As a matter of fact, you are making it about him and it makes me question your bias!

[fansince88]

Nothing to see here.

[John from Riverside]

PFF was down on Allen (aggressively so) when he was drafted

 

They dont like to admit they are wrong

[artmalibu]

His overall stats are not that great.... So, any rating matrix will not show him in a positive light.  

 

That said Im glad we got him.

[Bubba Gump]

They sound like a couple guys who caught their wives having a threesome with Josh. Salty blowhards.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Another rating this week, in the Washington Post, rates Allen third from the bottom.  Analytic approaches aside, he has to improve.

[Augie]

Just keep winning......

[Reader]

10 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

PFF was down on Allen (aggressively so) when he was drafted

 

They dont like to admit they are wrong

 

I like PFF and see it as a useful tool, and yet when it comes to Allen PFF sure seems to have a bone to pick here. Someone posted Allen's passing grade as around 60 (average) by PFF's standards. Funny how PFF doesn't mention that Allen's passing grade has improved (I think by over 10 points) from a poor player to an average one and that his running grade is what is dragging him down, by their standards.

To me, a player who has just completed his first 16 games. Has improved his passing (what has been most criticized) despite his grade being weighed down by playing against a defense that might be historically good to me warrants optimism. Hard to see PFF as anything other than biased here.

[Rbleyle]

Any metric that has Jameis Winston as a top 10 QB should be immediately discarded.  2 prow bowl Caliber WRs, 2 better than average TEs, and he still prefers to throw to the other team.  

[H2o]

The same PFF that has the Bills #19 in their Power Rankings?  

 

dorks

[berg1029]

According to PFF.. Devlin Hodges is better than Josh Allen?  WHAT?

 

I don't get really caught up in these rankings, but come on.  The guy threw for like 100 yards in a full game... pretty much all of which was to running backs.  

[Bangarang]

28 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Get over the Allen thing and focus on everything else, that's what he's trying to say to you. The view of PFF and stats has NOTHING to do with Allen. As a matter of fact, you are making it about him and it makes me question your bias!

Get over what Allen thing? This is literally a thread about a PFF stat for QBs. 

[Lurker]

breasts on a bull...

[nedboy7]

It’s hilarious people think PFF has something personal against Allen.  Take your ball and go home. 

[BigDingus]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForReal said:

 

I mean, it's not surprising at all. I'm sure our fans will get pissed and argue how this isn't indicative of the player he is, and that in reality he's the one QB in modern history that's a great player while simultaneously playing like he has...

There's definitely room for growth, but man does he have to get MUCH better to be a real franchise QB.

 

Edit: Yup...after reading through some comments, of course people now are just outright dismissing PFF because they don't like what they see. Did anyone really think after watching how Allen's played so far that he'd be ranked higher than these guys? Honestly?

Edited October 18, 2019 by BigDingus

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

John Brown has made a career of being a burner and catching the deep ball. He’s a big play waiting to happen.

 

Yes, but if there is a safety or two over top, and most teams play Allen Cover 1 or 2, then that man coverage big play opportunity is taken away. Unless we want him to throw into that...

 

Brown has been surprisingly good underneath and that is what defenses are giving up and that is what Allen should take.

 

If Daboll decides to lean on the run more (with Singletary if and when he can go again), then safeties will start to cheat up to the box and we may catch some man coverage downfield and I like our odds to beat that. Now Allen has to prove he can connect on those when he has the shot and can step into the throw.

 

 

As far as PFF goes, a monkey throwing darts at a spreadsheet would provide as much useful analysis. These PFF tools tailor a few metrics to fit their bias.

 

As much as I like Wentz when he has been healthy enough to play he has usually had a pretty solid supporting cast, but has not been healthy to play many games. I am not even sure he has ever gone up against a stat-killing NE defense yet in his career, and he is #2. Not to mention the oft-benched Mariota and Fitzpatrick ranked so high....

 

Whatever.

 

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

What's their grades based on win/loss record? 

 

 

Shouldn't be. Win/loss is a team stat, not a QB stat.

 

IMO that's a bit low for Josh. But not horrifically low. He's been consistently inconsistent.

[WideNine]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Shouldn't be. Win/loss is a team stat, not a QB stat.

 

IMO that's a bit low for Josh. But not horrifically low. He's been consistently inconsistent.

 

If we are just basing grades on feelings would you really take Stafford, or Lamar Jackson, or Dak, or half a dozen other QBs over Mahomes?

 

Seriously?

[CincyBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

I mean, it's not surprising at all. I'm sure our fans will get pissed and argue how this isn't indicative of the player he is, and that in reality he's the one QB in modern history that's a great player while simultaneously playing like he has...

There's definitely room for growth, but man does he have to get MUCH better to be a real franchise QB.

 

Edit: Yup...after reading through some comments, of course people now are just outright dismissing PFF because they don't like what they see. Did anyone really think after watching how Allen's played so far that he'd be ranked higher than these guys? Honestly?

 

If they had only rated Allen poorly you might have a point.  But did you check out their other QB ratings?  Luckily they're not using these analytics to launch rockets - it would be ugly.

 

 

13 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Edit: Yup...after reading through some comments, of course people now are just outright dismissing PFF because they don't like what they see. Did anyone really think after watching how Allen's played so far that he'd be ranked higher than these guys? Honestly?

 

He's definitely playing better then Mayfield and Mariota.  Can you honestly say he isn't?

 

 

[r00tabaga]

I've never even heard of them. They have no legitimacy IMO. It is a bad list and laughable team ranking LMAO! They are just a couple dorks who have never play'd but have a mic & keyboard.

[Shaw66]

I've said over and over, if you want to evaluate quarterbacks, all you have to do is look at the passer rating.  Passer rating correlates excellently with the best QBs.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson consistently have the best passer rating. 

 

Where does Allen rank in passer rating this season?  30th, that's where.   His passer rating this season is essentially no better than his passer rating last season.  

 

The simple fact is that Allen is not been nearly effective enough.  Yes, his numbers would look different if you took away just a handful of stupid plays, but that's true for everyone.  

 

Allen has not been very good.   And people who point at the wins, as though Allen gets credit for the wins, are dreaming.   Yes, he's led 4th quarter drives, but the defense is winning all those games, not Allen.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

20 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Shouldn't be. Win/loss is a team stat, not a QB stat.

 

IMO that's a bit low for Josh. But not horrifically low. He's been consistently inconsistent.

Absurd and Nonsensical! You can't tell me the QB doesn't have an enormous impact on whether the team wins or loses. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

When you are within 5 people of M. Trubiski on any list it is not a good thing.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I've said over and over, if you want to evaluate quarterbacks, all you have to do is look at the passer rating.  Passer rating correlates excellently with the best QBs.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson consistently have the best passer rating. 

 

Where does Allen rank in passer rating this season?  30th, that's where.   His passer rating this season is essentially no better than his passer rating last season.  

 

The simple fact is that Allen is not been nearly effective enough.  Yes, his numbers would look different if you took away just a handful of stupid plays, but that's true for everyone.  

 

Allen has not been very good.   And people who point at the wins, as though Allen gets credit for the wins, are dreaming.   Yes, he's led 4th quarter drives, but the defense is winning all those games, not Allen.

You’re shortsighted in the 4th quarter comebacks I would say.  Allen has things to learn to be sure.  But if you watch his game he’s more accurate with throws, he has a higher completion percentage, he’s using shorter patterns.  All good things.  He still needs to make quicker reads and needs to quit throwing late back into the middle of the field.  Those are bad.

 

It really comes down to whether you think a couple guys throwing around fancy terms on a website have any more validity than the next guy.  I don’t.  Shaw, maybe you and I should get together and do one of these; we’d be as good as these guys and probably better.

 

Oh, and the defense winning games?  Fine by me.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Allen is having a down year, he is not seeing the field as well and his accuracy on long and medium depth routes is troubling. Sometimes when they open the full play book a QB takes a step back. They need to make sure Allen is ready or cut back some plays.

[Don Otreply]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've said over and over, if you want to evaluate quarterbacks, all you have to do is look at the passer rating.  Passer rating correlates excellently with the best QBs.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson consistently have the best passer rating. 

 

Where does Allen rank in passer rating this season?  30th, that's where.   His passer rating this season is essentially no better than his passer rating last season.  

 

The simple fact is that Allen is not been nearly effective enough.  Yes, his numbers would look different if you took away just a handful of stupid plays, but that's true for everyone.  

 

Allen has not been very good.   And people who point at the wins, as though Allen gets credit for the wins, are dreaming.   Yes, he's led 4th quarter drives, but the defense is winning all those games, not Allen.

Yup, he does have  lapses in concentration that negatively effect  his production,  but it’s early yet, he has just finished one season worth of games started, I still think he can reduce his mistakes, and help the team score more points.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

The same PFF that has the Bills #19 in their Power Rankings?  

 

dorks

 

The same PFF who never liked Allen coming out of college and who go out of their way to find ways to prove the are right about him - such as this piece of wisdom from a PFF article a couple of weeks ago:

 

"Though Allen has generated a high adjusted completion percentage thus far (77.6%), that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been accurate. Only 17 of his 163 passing attempts this season have been deemed as 100% on the mark."

 

Their own method of generating adjusted completion percentage puts Allen near the top of the league, yet they still claim him to be innacurate. Either they are admitting their own methodology and evaluation of adjusted completion % isn't worth a s*** and, basically, meaningless, or they are just pushing an agenda.

 

100% on the mark?

 

WTF

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Yup, he does have  lapses in concentration that negatively effect  his production,  but it’s early yet, he has just finished one season worth of games started, I still think he can reduce his mistakes, and help the team score more points.

Oh, I think he's going to be great.   I'm a huge fan of his.  

 

But anyone who thinks he's playing like a top 20 quarterback isn't watching.   He has a long way to go.   Having said that, I think we will see a much better QB in the coming weeks.  

[H2o]

15 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

The same PFF who never liked Allen coming out of college and who go out of their way to find ways to prove the are right about him - such as this piece of wisdom from a PFF article a couple of weeks ago:

 

"Though Allen has generated a high adjusted completion percentage thus far (77.6%), that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been accurate. Only 17 of his 163 passing attempts this season have been deemed as 100% on the mark."

 

Their own method of generating adjusted completion percentage puts Allen near the top of the league, yet they still claim him to be innacurate. Either they are admitting their own methodology and evaluation of adjusted completion % isn't worth a s*** and, basically, meaningless, or they are just pushing an agenda.

 

100% on the mark?

 

WTF

You're preaching to the chior here brother. Dorks making YouTube videos in their mom's basement. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've said over and over, if you want to evaluate quarterbacks, all you have to do is look at the passer rating.  Passer rating correlates excellently with the best QBs.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson consistently have the best passer rating. 

 

Where does Allen rank in passer rating this season?  30th, that's where.   His passer rating this season is essentially no better than his passer rating last season.  

 

The simple fact is that Allen is not been nearly effective enough.  Yes, his numbers would look different if you took away just a handful of stupid plays, but that's true for everyone.  

 

Allen has not been very good.   And people who point at the wins, as though Allen gets credit for the wins, are dreaming.   Yes, he's led 4th quarter drives, but the defense is winning all those games, not Allen.

 

Let’s put the bottom line up front that Allen has to improve.  We know it, Daboll knows it, Allen knows it.  And the key focus area he needs to improve is turnovers.

 

That said, let’s take a little walk through Passer Rating Lane to sanity check your “all”.  Do you really think Allen is legit the 30th QB in the league right now?  Do you really believe that Case Keenum, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton have all played better, more effective QBing than Allen?  Because if so, I’m here to tell you I think you’re mistaken.  Passer rating has value, and the cream rises to the top, but it has limitations too which is why groups like CHFF and Football Outsiders are always seeking more informative stats.  For a reasoned (but limited) critique try here.  Omitted are considerations of total yardage, total TD, and total TO.

 

I’d like to see if I can entice @BuffaloHokie13 to weigh in here as he has evolved his own passer rating.

 

I also think you do under-value Allens’ contributions to the comeback wins.  Yes Wins are team stats, but I think Allen’s contribution to those wins is under-valued by a statement like “the defense is winning all those games, not Allen”. Just as the Bills don’t win those games without the stellar D effort, they don’t win without the spark Allen provided, either.

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Oh, I think he's going to be great.   I'm a huge fan of his.  

 

But anyone who thinks he's playing like a top 20 quarterback isn't watching.   He has a long way to go.   Having said that, I think we will see a much better QB in the coming weeks.  

 

OK you don’t think he’s playing like a top 20 QB.  Do you honestly believe he’s playing like the #30 QB in the league, which is what “all you have to do is look at passer rating” implies?

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

Yes, but if there is a safety or two over top, and most teams play Allen Cover 1 or 2, then that man coverage big play opportunity is taken away. Unless we want him to throw into that...

 

Brown has been surprisingly good underneath and that is what defenses are giving up and that is what Allen should take.

 

If Daboll decides to lean on the run more (with Singletary if and when he can go again), then safeties will start to cheat up to the box and we may catch some man coverage downfield and I like our odds to beat that. Now Allen has to prove he can connect on those when he has the shot and can step into the throw.

 

 

As far as PFF goes, a monkey throwing darts at a spreadsheet would provide as much useful analysis. These PFF tools tailor a few metrics to fit their bias.

 

As much as I like Wentz when he has been healthy enough to play he has usually had a pretty solid supporting cast, but has not been healthy to play many games. I am not even sure he has ever gone up against a stat-killing NE defense yet in his career, and he is #2. Not to mention the oft-benched Mariota and Fitzpatrick ranked so high....

 

Whatever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PFF is good. Not perfect, of course, but they're very good, and they don't tailor the stats to what they want to find.

 

Now, do the watchers find their perceptions are interfered with somewhat by their preconceptions. Yup. Same as every single human being in the history of history, but PFF still does a good job.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Get over what Allen thing? This is literally a thread about a PFF stat for QBs. 

 

I think he’s trying to tell you that anyone who objects to the PFF stats or the ESPN blitz stat you brought in, is not just an Allen homer who dismisses anything that doesn’t say “Allen is Great”.

 

You seem to conflate the two.

[WideNine]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

PFF is good. Not perfect, of course, but they're very good, and they don't tailor the stats to what they want to find.

 

Now, do the watchers find their perceptions are interfered with somewhat by their preconceptions. Yup. Same as every single human being in the history of history, but PFF still does a good job.

 

Not convinced, but to each their own.

 

Their opinion is just that, once you get down to the subjective interpretations of things like "accurate pass".

 

It is hard enough to get 3 people watching the same replay in slow motion to agree on what they are seeing. That is where subjective bias comes into play and we know where they and some others stand in regards to Allen.

 

It is not like their opinion really matters, it is our coaches and who they feel gives this team the best chance to win.

 

 

 

 

[BillsfaninChicago]

This grade chart gets an F....

[Bangarang]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think he’s trying to tell you that anyone who objects to the PFF stats or the ESPN blitz stat you brought in, is not just an Allen homer who dismisses anything that doesn’t say “Allen is Great”.

 

You seem to conflate the two.

I don’t conflate the two actually.