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QB Grades Through Week 6 Per PFF

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4 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


How you are against the blitz isn’t meaningless. It also doesn’t mean that being good against the blitz means you’re a world beater. It’s merely a component of having to play QB. The more things you are consistently good at then the better you and your team will be. This place is so quick to dismiss things simply because Allen isn’t among the greats.

 

I think people are dismissing this because it doesn't pass the "eyeball test" of which QB can really hurt a team that brings the heat on them, not because Allen isn't among the "greats".  The "greats" aren't among the "greats", is the problem, which calls their methodology into question.

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5 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


John Brown has made a career of being a burner and catching the deep ball. He’s a big play waiting to happen.

 

I like Brown but at best he's a borderline big play guy.  He strikes me more as a technician at WR.  In Baltimore he benefited a lot from play action passes for his big completions down field.  I'm not sure the Bills running game right now strikes enough fear in a team that it freezes the safeties.

 

 

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:


What point are you even arguing here? 

 

That the analytics used by PFF to rank QB's isn't worth a damn. 

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2 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


How you are against the blitz isn’t meaningless. It also doesn’t mean that being good against the blitz means you’re a world beater. It’s merely a component of having to play QB. The more things you are consistently good at then the better you and your team will be. This place is so quick to dismiss things simply because Allen isn’t among the greats.

Not implying JA is an all time great or even overly good at this point. My points are a) these "journalists" pull a single statistic and make it overly important b) the dudes have had an axe to grind on josh allen and to an earlier posters point .. they push all Baker mayfield stuff under the rug because coming out they had JA as a bust and Baker as an all-time draft pick c) they have some serious issues with the Bills - do I think we are a top 6 team .. probably not, but as mentioned earlier they dropped the Bills from 10th to 20th after the bye .. behind Tennessee in their power rankings .. explain that... https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-power-rankings

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh Hey, like MARIOTA?  Who is also by ESPN "Top Against the Blitz"?  He's had something like 8 300+ yard games, including one this season.

And something like 10 games where he's thrown ?3 TDs, too, including 2 this season.

 

Wonder why he just got benched, eh?

 

 


Oh. My. Goodness. Let’s just never discuss anything unless Allen is the absolute best in the world at it. 
 

Showing he’s struggled against the blitz this year has nothing to do with Mariota, Mayfield or Winston. It doesn’t mean that anyone who is doing better in this one specific area is also better at literally everything else. It’s an area of improvement. That’s the point. 

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Devil’s Advocate because why not: 

 

those of you who say wins and losses are all that matters, is that how you assess other positional groups too? 
 

if so, should we be content with our entire offensive production? 
 

the people who try to analyze positional players are trying to look at these players in a vacuum. A lot of factors aren’t taken into account, and you should be aware of it, not mad about it. 
 

I get that some people feel the need to defend Allen at all costs, but he is fine, and knows that he has to improve.

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


Oh. My. Goodness. Let’s just never discuss anything unless Allen is the absolute best in the world at it. 
 

Showing he’s struggled against the blitz this year has nothing to do with Mariota, Mayfield or Winston. It doesn’t mean that anyone who is doing better in this one specific area is also better at literally everything else. It’s an area of improvement. That’s the point. 


that’s what I was trying to get at. There is a small group of people unwilling to acknowledge the fact that Allen has struggled at times. 

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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think people are dismissing this because it doesn't pass the "eyeball test" of which QB can really hurt a team that brings the heat on them, not because Allen isn't among the "greats".  The "greats" aren't among the "greats", is the problem, which calls their methodology into question.


What methodology are you referring to? 

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1 minute ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Not implying JA is an all time great or even overly good at this point. My points are a) these "journalists" pull a single statistic and make it overly important b) the dudes have had an axe to grind on josh allen and to an earlier posters point .. they push all Baker mayfield stuff under the rug because coming out they had JA as a bust and Baker as an all-time draft pick c) they have some serious issues with the Bills - do I think we are a top 6 team .. probably not, but as mentioned earlier they dropped the Bills from 10th to 20th after the bye .. behind Tennessee in their power rankings .. explain that... https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-power-rankings

 

Well said. 

 

We all get that Allen needs to improve his game substantially to be a top flight QB.  He is a work in progress and still very raw.  But listening to these guys and having heard and read their other stuff about Allen you can't miss their deep bias.

 

All I hear about when they discuss Mayfield is that his O-line is struggling.  Yet they don't think to mention that Allen was missing 3 O-line starters against TN?  IMO they have very little credibility when it comes to discussing Allen.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

What methodology are you referring to? 

 

Unclear on why this is unclear.  You posted a list of QB ESPN asserts are "best against the blitz"

How did they develop this list?  They used some kind of method to come up with it  - that's their "methodology"

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5 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Not implying JA is an all time great or even overly good at this point. My points are a) these "journalists" pull a single statistic and make it overly important b) the dudes have had an axe to grind on josh allen and to an earlier posters point .. they push all Baker mayfield stuff under the rug because coming out they had JA as a bust and Baker as an all-time draft pick c) they have some serious issues with the Bills - do I think we are a top 6 team .. probably not, but as mentioned earlier they dropped the Bills from 10th to 20th after the bye .. behind Tennessee in their power rankings .. explain that... https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-power-rankings

 

There are certain things that I think PFF does well and can be a useful tool for analysis. Then there’s the majority of everything else they do where it’s stupid. Power rankings fall under the stupid category.
 

To be honest, I don’t care what anyone else thought about Allen or any other QB prior to the draft. The only thing I care about is how he’s actually playing for his team. 

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4 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


Oh. My. Goodness. Let’s just never discuss anything unless Allen is the absolute best in the world at it. 
 

Showing he’s struggled against the blitz this year has nothing to do with Mariota, Mayfield or Winston. It doesn’t mean that anyone who is doing better in this one specific area is also better at literally everything else. It’s an area of improvement. That’s the point. 

Yes he has things that need improvement.  But come on now.  They harped on his completion percentage, he was 72% last game, and the one guy still says it doesn’t mean anything.  I don’t care about this list for three reasons:  1.  Made up stats that are made up to try and prove a preconceived idea; 2. Guys doing this that are no more qualified to do it than me or others here; 3.  What appears to be confirmation bias.

 

I don’t really care where the Bills QB ranks compared to others.  I care about how he plays.

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Unclear on why this is unclear.  You posted a list of QB ESPN asserts are "best against the blitz"

How did they develop this list?  They used some kind of method to come up with it  - that's their "methodology"


It states it is based on passer rating when facing 5 or more rushers. To me, there really isn’t a methodology or room for interpretation with these numbers. They are what they are.

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Yes he has things that need improvement.  But come on now.  They harped on his completion percentage, he was 72% last game, and the one guy still says it doesn’t mean anything.  I don’t care about this list for three reasons:  1.  Made up stats that are made up to try and prove a preconceived idea; 2. Guys doing this that are no more qualified to do it than me or others here; 3.  What appears to be confirmation bias.

 

I don’t really care where the Bills QB ranks compared to others.  I care about how he plays.


I actually couldn’t care less about that PFF or that podcast that was posted here. I listened to it for 30 seconds and couldn’t take it any longer. It was brutal.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

There’s room for improvement. I’d like to see him have a game or 2 where he goes off and throws for like 350 yards and 3TDs.
 

CC55-F4-CB-B635-43-B6-A4-CE-4745-EA3-BB5

 

The problem is that you will likely never see that game unless we are losing in a shootout.

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10 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


Oh. My. Goodness. Let’s just never discuss anything unless Allen is the absolute best in the world at it. 
 

Showing he’s struggled against the blitz this year has nothing to do with Mariota, Mayfield or Winston. It doesn’t mean that anyone who is doing better in this one specific area is also better at literally everything else. It’s an area of improvement. That’s the point. 

 

Well, we clearly can't discuss anything if this is the sort of extreme overreaction to it.

 

What is the methodology used to develop the list you posted?  If you asked 5 or 10 really knowledgeable football guys who watch lots and lots of film and know their stuff - Tony Romo, Greg Cosell type guys - which 10 QB are doing best against the blitz this season - do you think that's the list they'd come up with?

 

I don't.

 

The point isn't we can't discuss anything ever unless Allen is the absolute best at it, the point is when you present a list of "Ten Best" with those names on it, it calls into question the criteria used to develop the list - the methodology.  And if the methodology is fundamentally flawed, the results are meaningless.  And if you have to misrepresent that concern as  you do above, that's a problem too.

 

It's like ESPN's "Total QBR".  It was supposed to be the latest and greatest savior statistic boiling down every QB's real contribution to a team's wins or losses into a single number that would really show who's who and what's what, but it lost favor after people realized it was coming up with some pretty hinkey rankings that didn't seem to match reality.

 

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45 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

What's their grades based on win/loss record? 

It is certainly not based on fourth quarter comeback wins...

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, we clearly can't discuss anything if this is the sort of extreme overreaction to it.

 

What is the methodology used to develop the list you posted?  If you asked 5 or 10 really knowledgeable football guys who watch lots and lots of film and know their stuff - Tony Romo, Greg Cosell type guys - which 10 QB are doing best against the blitz this season - do you think that's the list they'd come up with?

 

I don't.

 

The point isn't we can't discuss anything ever unless Allen is the absolute best at it, the point is when you present a list of "Ten Best" with those names on it, it calls into question the criteria used to develop the list - the methodology.  And if the methodology is fundamentally flawed, the results are meaningless.  And if you have to misrepresent that concern as  you do above, that's a problem too.

 

It's like ESPN's "Total QBR".  It was supposed to be the latest and greatest savior statistic boiling down every QB's real contribution to a team's wins or losses into a single number that would really show who's who and what's what, but it lost favor after people realized it was coming up with some pretty hinkey rankings that didn't seem to match reality.

 


Passer rating has a formula. All ESPN did was use that to determine how QBs did against 5 or more pass rushers. It’s objective and what Romo or Cossel think don’t change what the numbers are.

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Josh Allen only has like a 42% completions 1 TD 2INTs versus the Blitz, going into the Pats game.  I'm sure that has a lot to do with his low ranking.

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7 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

It states it is based on passer rating when facing 5 or more rushers. To me, there really isn’t a methodology or room for interpretation with these numbers. They are what they are.

 

OK, methodological concerns with "room for interpretation" right off the top of my mind reading the above:

1) Who is deciding whether or not there are 5 or more rushers and what is the criterion they use?  (BTW .... 5 rushers is not the usual definition of blitz)

2) Passer rating is a controversial statistic to some, but leave that aside and just look at one aspect.  This is how it is calculated:

Passer Rating = 100 *(((MAX(0,MIN((Cmp/Att - 0.3) * 5, 2.375))) + (MAX(0,MIN((Yds/Att - 3) * 0.25, 2.375))) + (MAX(0,MIN((TD/Att) * 20, 2.375))) + (MAX(0,MIN(2.375 - INT/Att * 25, 2.375)))) / 6)

So right off the bat, you can see there is some subjectivity in the choice of this statistic as a methodology as it does not

1) penalize the passer for negative plays such as taking a sack or fumbling

2) credit the passer for positive plays such as rushing for yards.  And in fact that probably has something to do with the fact that Mariota and Winston rate highly there. 

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Not implying JA is an all time great or even overly good at this point. My points are a) these "journalists" pull a single statistic and make it overly important b) the dudes have had an axe to grind on josh allen and to an earlier posters point .. they push all Baker mayfield stuff under the rug because coming out they had JA as a bust and Baker as an all-time draft pick c) they have some serious issues with the Bills - do I think we are a top 6 team .. probably not, but as mentioned earlier they dropped the Bills from 10th to 20th after the bye .. behind Tennessee in their power rankings .. explain that... https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-power-rankings

I especially like this part:

 “ as opposed to most other ELO systems, PFF ELO doesn’t use the final score to update the rankings. Instead, we compute what the final score should have been based on the player grades.”

 

What a stupid system. That’s like saying: our picks were right, what happened in the games was wrong! Alternate reality

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