2019 Bills Passing Game - What do you expect?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

On 5/5/2019 at 11:09 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I want to see them run ~3 more plays per game, which would give us about 1050 plays per game, most of them pass plays.

 

Interestingly, of last year's top-10 offensive teams.....8 passed for more than 4000 yds

Two passed for less: 1) the Seasnakes with 3093 at #7 and 2) Da Bears with 3564 at #9.

 

So....3,500 yds seems kind of arbitrary, and not a barrier...to really compete as a passing team, as you point out, need to be >4000 yds or at least 250 yds per game

 

On the other hand, to your point, somewhere around 220 ypg seems to be a "floor" for effective QB play, which would be just over 3,500 yds per season.

 

I don't care how many TD Josh throws, just as long as he throws considerably more of 'em than he throws INTs.

 

 

Interesting, and this kind of sounds somewhat similar to what I was thinking as well. The great Bill Walsh once said that rushing atts. plus completions were important to him. I believe he was referring to getting the ball in the hands of the playmakers.

 

Some background stats from the last 5 yrs. I've researched:

 

Over this period the Bills have averaged 29.5 rush/atts./game, the league has been 26.4.  Yes of course we are running team, but we had only 18.8 comp./game, where as the league was 22.1/gm. Totals  48.3 atts+comp/gm. vs league avg of 48.5.

 

Now our divisional rivals from the coast: 27.9 rush and 24.1 comps for a total of 52.0. Interestingly, the one year the Pats didn't make the SB and lost to Denver, the numbers were slighty above average  at 49.2 . They are typically at 52-53. Their playmakers get an extra 3-4 chances a game to make a play.

 

So, I'm thinking with an increase in accuracy due to the offseason improvements on offense, fewer drops and increased experience by Allen

that we can add 3 more comp/gm. I believe getting the ball in the hands of our playmakers those extra times can only help. How many times did we drop a pass that could have been a first down that keeps the drive going and leads to points.

 

Finally, at 12.5 /comp (last year 12.3) and 3 more comps for 16 games it equals an improvement of 600yards. I think 3500 yards or around 220-225 yards a game is a reasonable expectation.

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Josh "Real Deal" Allen

[vorpma]

Just win, I don't care how - do whatever works!

[Buddy Hix]

I can’t say that I expect anything, it’s a total unknown for me. Maybe Allen builds on his late season showing, maybe he looks like crap. 

 

Hope is where I’m at. I hope Allen takes a step forward and the Bills look like a competent team on the offensive side of the ball.

[billsbackto81]

18 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

250 a game would be nice.

 

 

If we are winning games then this would be ideal. A 4000 yard season would be impressive but to me it would also indicate the run game is sound and effective and the defense is doing their job. 

[rayray808]

not sure on yards, but he will be a top 3 QB in Fantasy

[GreggTX]

I expect us to run more now that we've upgraded the OL. I'll say 55% completion rate, 2,800 yards, 15 TD's and 24 INT's for Allen in 2019.

Edited May 6, 2019 by GreggTX

[PrimeTime101]

First and foremost our QB can not be the best runner this year. If he is then the RB's and Line are not doing there job and expectations plummet quickly(only expectation then will be when josh allen gets hurt).

 

IF our RB's do the production then

 

Josh Allen throws for 3500 yards 20 td 15 int.  This will show us that he and this team has grown and taken the next step. 

 

IF we are expected to be a playoff team?

 

Josh Allen throws 3650 yards 22 td 13 int. Without a pure #1 WR and first year rebuild on offense (that will be the feel) it will show Josh has made a huge step and can be all he can be

[Alphadawg7]

I think Josh finishes between 3500 and 3800 yards passing with 500 to 600 yards rushing.  25 passing TDs with 8 rushing TDs and about a dozen INTs.  

 

And if if he does, we will be making not only the playoffs but will advance at least once.  

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

 

I do think he’s capable maybe of putting up bigger numbers but I’ve been saying now for awhile I think the coaching staff is gearing for a big time run first approach first. 

It’s just my opinion but I think they will try to protect Allen’s flaws a little especially the first few games by trying to impose their will in the run game and letting him flash some arm talent on playactions etc etc limiting his attempts. If the run game works you won’t see big stats from him. Of course tons of things play into this like being behind early or turnovers. It’s just a theory of mine anyways that they’re planning a heavy run attack 

Teams will continue to stack up the line to stop the run and force Allen to throw the football.  If he is not accurate enough to move the chains in that situation nothing will matter. 

[mannc]

21 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I would like to see 2500-3000 yards and 15 tds 

Josh will probably run a lot of those in as opposed to throw from inside the 5 cause well he’s a monster in that area of the field. 

I’d prefer less than 15 ints. 

 

What a pathetically low bar.  I sincerely hope that's not the goal.   No starting quarterback in the league put up that few yards over the course of the season last year.  

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think Josh finishes between 3500 and 3800 yards passing with 500 to 600 yards rushing.  25 passing TDs with 8 rushing TDs and about a dozen INTs.  

 

And if if he does, we will be making not only the playoffs but will advance at least once.  

That's more like it.

Edited May 6, 2019 by mannc

[Toesy]

I don't know where Vegas is getting 6.5 wins form but IMO Josh Allen is a QB who wins-his stats will never match his ability to win games. He was 5-5 last year almost all by himself-which is remarkable for a rookie QB-his elusiveness and pocket awareness is already top of the league-he will never be a Marino but he doesn't have to be-IMO Allen is a far stronger version of Blake Bortles and if you have a strong D you can win big time with a guy like that.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

20 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

There's been a lot of talk about WRs and everyone knows Josh Allen will need to develop his passing game this year.  We know Daboll wants to run the ball successfully.

I'm curious as to what is expected from the Bills Offensive Passing game to get them to contend for a Playoff spot.

 

First some passing statistics from last year (Team category stats -Net Yards Passing- from NFL.com).

2 Teams had more than 5,000 yards passing.  12 teams had more than 4,000-4,999.  9 teams had 3.500-3,999 and 9 teams had less than 3,500. 

A mid level team had averaged 26 Passing TD and threw the ball about 35 times a game.

 

2018 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,974 - 13 TDs - 31.2 passes per game.  Rookie 12 of 16 games

2017 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,825 - 16 TDs - 29.8 passes per game. Tuhrod

2016 Bills Stats (30th) - 3,036 - 17 TDs - 29.6 passes per game. Tuhrod

 

IMO even with a strong running game the Bills / Josh Allen have to break into the "over 3,500 yards barrier" and throw 20+ TDs at a minimum.

Like I said, Just curious as to what the board is expecting this year.  It seems to be the first step and if this thread gets any traction the

next questions would be HOW do they get there?  Wherever "there" is.  The mix between WR, TE and RB would logically follow.

 

 

I expect over 3200 yards passing and 20 - 25 TD's. 10 INT's 

 

Edited May 6, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[Simon Says]

Allen completed app 53% of his passes, or, about 16-30.  2 additional completions per game would raise that to a slightly more acceptable 60%. Flipping the TD -INT ratio to a +.....sustaining drives.,and, the improvement expected from the offensive additions...I 'expect' the passing game to be more productive. Overall, with the RB depth, I think the offense will be a bit  conservative, with  the THREAT of the Big Play. 20-24 TDs - 12-16 INT's, 3200 yards would be a step in the right direction. 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Georgie

[lacoy38]

I d say 3,500 yards 20-22 TDS 59-60% completions 

[WideNine]

Safeties up or playing cover 1 then take your deep shots. If 2 deep zone, run or work the middle with Beasley, RBs releasing, or your TEs. 

 

Throw in a few Daboll "fun" plays to take advantage of any defensive tendencies.

 

And overall less offensive miscues leading to penalties and bad field position.

[ColoradoBills]

15 hours ago, NewEra said:

Allen will “have to” break those numbers in order for what?  

 

If he plays 16 I expect right around 3500 and 20

 

I could of been clearer in my OP.  I was asking what people think JA and the offense would probably need numbers wise to put

an offense together (passing wise) that could get them to the playoffs.   The 3,500 yards, 20TDs seemed to me an achievable goal. 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think Josh finishes between 3500 and 3800 yards passing with 500 to 600 yards rushing.  25 passing TDs with 8 rushing TDs and about a dozen INTs.  

 

And if if he does, we will be making not only the playoffs but will advance at least once.  

 

I figure that is a good range which would show one big improvement from recent Bills teams.

 

So far I'm seeing that most people are pretty reasonable as to how much JA and the team improves statistically.

I'll say I will be ecstatic if JA is involved in 33 TDs. 

 

[mannc]

Just now, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'll say I will be ecstatic if JA is involved in 33 TDs. 

 

Does throwing a pick-six count as being “involved” in a TD??

[Chris66]

21 hours ago, TOboy said:

I’d be thrilled with 3400 yards, 18 passing TD’s and limit the interceptions to 12-14.

 

With our defence and potential running game that likely gets you to 9-10 wins.

Those passing numbers would be lucky to win 8 games

 

Bills defence wasnt nearly as good as you think

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Does throwing a pick-six count as being “involved” in a TD??

 

Ha, don't even want to think that.  That should only be in a Peterman thread.

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

Those passing numbers would be lucky to win 8 games

 

Bills defence wasnt nearly as good as you think

And then you look at our schedule.  And add Ed Oliver a new OL and WRs.  Edmunds another year of experience.  Gaines and Kj to our CBs.  Possibly ansah or another pass rusher after the 7th.  

 

Our running game WILL be much improved.  Allen went 5-5 with no OL, no WRs and no Running game.  So how did we go .500 if you defense isn’t very good?  Coaching? Luck?  He went 5-5 with nothing on O and now we’re clearly better with an easier schedule.....and he’d be lucky to have the same winning percentage as last year just because of “stats”?  Meh. The improvement in our running game will be enough to get 8 wins of allen only hits the above stats.

[ColoradoBills]

14 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

Those passing numbers would be lucky to win 8 games

 

Bills defence wasnt nearly as good as you think

 

Your opinion was about last years defense.  We are talking about this years Bills team.

 

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And then you look at our schedule.  And add Ed Oliver a new OL and WRs.  Edmunds another year of experience.  Gaines and Kj to our CBs.  Possibly ansah or another pass rusher after the 7th.  

 

Our running game WILL be much improved.  Allen went 5-5 with no OL, no WRs and no Running game.  So how did we go .500 if you defense isn’t very good?  Coaching? Luck?  He went 5-5 with nothing on O and now we’re clearly better with an easier schedule.....and he’d be lucky to have the same winning percentage as last year just because of “stats”?  Meh. The improvement in our running game will be enough to get 8 wins of allen only hits the above stats.

 

All good point NewEra but he won't hear them. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

40 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

Those passing numbers would be lucky to win 8 games

 

Bills defence wasnt nearly as good as you think

 

LOL  Lucky to win 10 games ......  Tell that to these guys 

 

RNK		YPG	Record
21	Dak Prescott	243	10 - 6
25	Mitchell Trubisky	230	12 - 4
28	Russell Wilson	216	10 - 6

 

Dak Prescott  3,885 passing yds

Russell Wilson  3,448 passing yds
Mitchell Trubisky,3,223 passing yds

 

 

The Bills Defense was top 10.   That's not what I call crappy.  

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Net Total Yards Leaders  D    Buffalo Ranked #2 

Net Pass Yards Leaders  D    Buffalo Ranked #1 

Net Rush Yards Leaders  D    Buffalo Ranked #16

Edited May 6, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[Formerly Allan in MD]

22 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

With Yeldon and Singletary our running game will improve slightly.  I'm not expecting anything from Gore or Shady. My 2019 Josh Allen prediction is as follows:

1.5 tds/game = 24

230 yds/game = 3680

500 yards rushing + 6 tds

12 ints

You left out a significant part of the equation: it's called a new offensive line.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

The Bills offense is going to look like Baltimore with Flacco. Running game will be the feature with play action, some screens, and occasional deep balls. Josh at this point is not a precision short game guy. I’m not saying he can’t develop that part of his game but it will take time.  TE play should be better but it is a real unknown. For those that think the Bills offense is going to look anything like the Patriots, Chiefs, or Eagles I think you will be disappointed. Allen is a season or two away from running those type of high percentage multiple pass attempts offenses.

[HeHateMe]

23 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I would like to see 2500-3000 yards and 15 tds 

Josh will probably run a lot of those in as opposed to throw from inside the 5 cause well he’s a monster in that area of the field. 

I’d prefer less than 15 ints. 

 

 

That would be an awful season for a year 2 Franchise QB..  If he isn't 3,500 ish and over 20 passing TDs we have a problem.

 

Wentz had 33 TDs / 7 INTS in yr 2.  

Goff who was horrible his first year had 3800 and 28 TDs with only 7 picks in yr 2. 

 

Added: Trubisky had 3200 and 24/12 in yr 2.  That should be where Allen is this year ball park with some solid rushing numbers.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2019 by HeHateMe

[Direhard Fan]

Our "D" will get even better than the second half LY.  Running will improve a lot with the new "O" line the second half.  Both open up the passing game and Josh will have a good year while learning the new receivers.  We should be  very good the second half.  9-7 and the playoffs.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

 

That would be an awful season for a year 2 Franchise QB..  If he isn't 3,500 ish and over 20 passing TDs we have a problem.

 

Wentz had 33 TDs / 7 INTS in yr 2.  

Goff who was horrible his first year had 3800 and 28 TDs with only 7 picks in yr 2. 

 

Added: Trubisky had 3200 and 24/12 in yr 2.  That should be where Allen is this year ball park with some solid rushing numbers.

 

 

RNK		YPG	Record
21	Dak Prescott	243	10 - 6
25	Mitchell Trubisky	230	12 - 4
28	Russell Wilson	216	10 - 6

 

 

Mitch hardly passed at all his 1st year playing in CHI.  He's stepped it up and BAM the team got 12.  

Like Mitch Josh needs a bump and a great defense.  He doesn't need to be the league leader 

[Fred Slacks]

Have to think that the offensive line will be improved.  That should give Josh more time from the pocket where he threw pretty darn well.  Also I think the darn swing routes to the RB will be one of the main focuses in developing Josh this season.  They were there for the taking and he would wait way too long.  That is where Brady makes his living.  Figure he completes a few of those easy dumps during the game.  I would not be shocked to watch his completion percentage fall between 60-62% this year which I think is more than enough.  I am guessing he averages 200-250 yards a game passing.  The long balls are not high completion percentages but I think with better offensive line play they do become more achievable regularly.  

 

Season 3,500 yards           24 TD's   12 INT's          That is serious improvement.  Ground game will be markedly improved this season.  McCoy gets really close to the 12,000 yard mark this year.  I think we lead the league in rushing this season.  To me that would be the biggest improvement.  That opens up the passing game for Josh Allen.  Play Action they were force feeding last season.  This year it will work.

[Rocky Landing]

I suspect that quite a few fans have already overestimated our WR corps, even the ones who were here last season. We Bills fans have terrible short-term memories, and it’s easy to look back on last season and remember some of Robert Foster’s terrific plays, and forget some of his egregious drops, for example. 

 

Certainly, Foster and Jones developed during the season, and the least we can expect from our upgraded WR corps is some real increase in production in our passing game. That’s pretty obvious. But, I don’t think it’s going to be huge. 

 

All that that being said, I think Brown, Foster, Beasley, Jones, Roberts make the 53, and Williams, Sills vie for #6. Williams for his potential, Sills as a red zone target. 

 

Sorry to see McKenzey go, but I think his role is supplanted by Roberts/Beasley. 

[rodneykm]

If Josh can average about 200 a game and keep the interceptions to a minimum ( 18TD / 8INT ), we should have enough of a run game to pull out a 10 and 6 record this year. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

A semblance of competence and confidence?

 

And some cool name for the arial attack 

[Rc2catch]

1 hour ago, HeHateMe said:

 

That would be an awful season for a year 2 Franchise QB..  If he isn't 3,500 ish and over 20 passing TDs we have a problem.

 

Wentz had 33 TDs / 7 INTS in yr 2.  

Goff who was horrible his first year had 3800 and 28 TDs with only 7 picks in yr 2. 

 

Added: Trubisky had 3200 and 24/12 in yr 2.  That should be where Allen is this year ball park with some solid rushing numbers.

 

 

There’s a difference there though you’re not equating in. Those are all 3 offensive coaches. I mentioned earlier the reason I expect to see those stats from Allen just my theory that they’ll be running the ball a ton. 

[RobbRiddick]

Blitz them in the first half, build a lead, then run heavy in the second to break their spirit. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...not even going to bother to wing stats......Belichick always talks about three phases.......so just give me the offensive phase where the passing game is a viable threat when called upon as an integral part of the offense...sure as hell do NOT mean in catch up mode.....say generically that the options are 60/40 run/pass or 60/40 pass/run....Daboll needs to determine WEEKLY what is the opposition's weakness and plan to exploit the hell out of it...at the same time, he needs to have Alternate Plan B or C drawn up in the event that A does not work....hate him all you want, but Belichick is THE master of adjustments, which has been an ongoing OBD weakness IMO....said it before and will say it AGAIN, if you want Josh to be our long term franchise QB solution, damn well better mitigate him putting the entire club on his shoulders unless you want him on a gurney....McBeane has added some perceived offensive talent via draft and FA...why "perceived"?.....because it's ALL ON PAPER RIGHT NOW....so Daboll is charged with being able to read and react to the flow of each game, adjusting accordingly, as he expects his players to do weekly....equal standard for coaches AND players IMO...stay tuned....

Edited May 6, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[RevWarRifleman]

What concerns me the most is the ability to put points on the board as opposed to any passing stats.  More to develope on this later

[LSHMEAB]

If his completion percentage is 56+, everything else will take care of itself. He's never going to be a super "efficient" passer, but something in that range combined with his AY/A would get it done. 

 

The surrounding cast is now "competent" so the passing game is really going to hinge on Allen's development.

[Chris66]

4 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

LOL  Lucky to win 10 games ......  Tell that to these guys 

 

RNK		YPG	Record
21	Dak Prescott	243	10 - 6
25	Mitchell Trubisky	230	12 - 4
28	Russell Wilson	216	10 - 6

 

Dak Prescott  3,885 passing yds

Russell Wilson  3,448 passing yds
Mitchell Trubisky,3,223 passing yds

 

 

The Bills Defense was top 10.   That's not what I call crappy.  

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Net Total Yards Leaders  D    Buffalo Ranked #2 

Net Pass Yards Leaders  D    Buffalo Ranked #1 

Net Rush Yards Leaders  D    Buffalo Ranked #16

19th in points

Bills D gave up a lot of points on short fields. Thats how the Bills ranked second in yards allowed

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

13 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

19th in points

Bills D gave up a lot of points on short fields. Thats how the Bills ranked second in yards allowed

FRR.  It was 18th. 

 

Frasier was clueless for 1.5 weeks. 

 

Pick 6’s factor into that? 

 

We faced how many playoff teams?

 

And  IF the team gave up 30 but scored 31 who gives a crap?

 

Two QBs that should not have played did.   Which relates to

 

Your best defense is a Good offense 

 

NE was 27 against the pass.  I thought Gilmore was a great pick up. 

[BuffaloFan68]

I can see us hitting over 3,500 yards and  20+ TDs .  I stil feel our biggest upgrade on Offense is the new line coach.

Let's Go Buffalo!!!!!