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2019 Bills Passing Game - What do you expect?


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1 hour ago, hemma said:

I’m looking for 24 points and I really don’t care how they get them.  Field goals, safeties, pick 6, punt returns, passes or 1 yard scrambles.... they’ll all be fun.

 

We average 24, we should be in the playoffs and from there, who knows?

They averaged 22 in Allen's last 6 games, so it shouldn't be difficult to jump that hurdle. In fact, I could easily see them do better--26 ppg would put them in the top 10 (based on 2018).

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6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

There's been a lot of talk about WRs and everyone knows Josh Allen will need to develop his passing game this year.  We know Daboll wants to run the ball successfully.

I'm curious as to what is expected from the Bills Offensive Passing game to get them to contend for a Playoff spot.

 

First some passing statistics from last year (Team category stats -Net Yards Passing- from NFL.com).

2 Teams had more than 5,000 yards passing.  12 teams had more than 4,000-4,999.  9 teams had 3.500-3,999 and 9 teams had less than 3,500. 

A mid level team had averaged 26 Passing TD and threw the ball about 35 times a game.

 

2018 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,974 - 13 TDs - 31.2 passes per game.

2017 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,825 - 16 TDs - 29.8 passes per game.

2016 Bills Stats (30th) - 3,036 - 17 TDs - 29.6 passes per game.

 

IMO even with a strong running game the Bills / Josh Allen have to break into the "over 3,500 yards barrier" and throw 20+ TDs at a minimum.

Like I said, Just curious as to what the board is expecting this year.  It seems to be the first step and if this thread gets any traction the

next questions would be HOW do they get there?  Wherever "there" is.  The mix between WR, TE and RB would logically follow.

 

Allen will “have to” break those numbers in order for what?  

 

If he plays 16 I expect right around 3500 and 20

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Some really nice projections along the lines of what I was thinking.  Just south of 250 a game, close to 8 ypc, and 22 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing and 12 int.  Last years' passing TD/Int  ratio that Josh gets unfairly criticized for should go up to ~ 2.  Honestly, who should care whether he throws a 2 yard TD, launches himself over the top with arms extended, plows straight ahead with a push from behind, rips through the line on a QB draw or lets Gore/McCoy/Singletary do the honors?  Just the fantasy players, I suppose.  My sense is that the Bills will be very, very good at short yardage and goal line situations in 2019.

Edited by JESSEFEFFER
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7 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

There's been a lot of talk about WRs and everyone knows Josh Allen will need to develop his passing game this year.  We know Daboll wants to run the ball successfully.

I'm curious as to what is expected from the Bills Offensive Passing game to get them to contend for a Playoff spot.

 

First some passing statistics from last year (Team category stats -Net Yards Passing- from NFL.com).

2 Teams had more than 5,000 yards passing.  12 teams had more than 4,000-4,999.  9 teams had 3.500-3,999 and 9 teams had less than 3,500. 

A mid level team had averaged 26 Passing TD and threw the ball about 35 times a game.

 

2018 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,974 - 13 TDs - 31.2 passes per game.

2017 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,825 - 16 TDs - 29.8 passes per game.

2016 Bills Stats (30th) - 3,036 - 17 TDs - 29.6 passes per game.

 

IMO even with a strong running game the Bills / Josh Allen have to break into the "over 3,500 yards barrier" and throw 20+ TDs at a minimum.

Like I said, Just curious as to what the board is expecting this year.  It seems to be the first step and if this thread gets any traction the

next questions would be HOW do they get there?  Wherever "there" is.  The mix between WR, TE and RB would logically follow.

 

 

I want to see them run ~3 more plays per game, which would give us about 1050 plays per game, most of them pass plays.

 

Interestingly, of last year's top-10 offensive teams.....8 passed for more than 4000 yds

Two passed for less: 1) the Seasnakes with 3093 at #7 and 2) Da Bears with 3564 at #9.

 

So....3,500 yds seems kind of arbitrary, and not a barrier...to really compete as a passing team, as you point out, need to be >4000 yds or at least 250 yds per game

 

On the other hand, to your point, somewhere around 220 ypg seems to be a "floor" for effective QB play, which would be just over 3,500 yds per season.

 

I don't care how many TD Josh throws, just as long as he throws considerably more of 'em than he throws INTs.

 

 

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9 hours ago, SoTier said:

I don't think anybody can realistically "expect" anything specific from the passing game as there are so many unknowns.   Fans can be hopeful but that's based on they're being fans.  Can Josh Allen improve his accuracy enough to become a proficient NFL passer?  Can he master the nuances of the mental game and recognize when to take a chance and when to throw the ball away?  Will the new OL be good enough in pass protection to give Allen the time he needs to make pass plays or will he be running for his life too frequently?  Can the Bills WRs get separation and make clutch catches?   Will Daboll's game plans and play calling give the Bills a respectable NFL passing game? 

I expect us to be better in everything you just mentioned 

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I want to see 3,500 yards in the air with 1.8+:1 TD to Int ratio and completion percentage at 58% or higher. That’s enough improvement for me to keep the faith. Hopefully, he’ll hit that with an added 400+ yards on the ground.

 

Ideally, Allen will provide about 4,200 yards of total offense, 23-26 TDs (pass and run), while throwing 13 or less interceptions. If he does that this team is likely competing for a playoff spot unless there are serious injuries on the defensive side of the ball. 

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So people keep throwing out throwing stats as all important, especially throwing TDs.  But let's be honest, Josh's legs are a weapon that will be utilized, too, and will take away from the throwing touchdowns.  As far as I'm concerned winning is all that matters.  Scoring is an important factor to winning, but I honestly don't care how those scores happen.  If Josh ends up with 30 rushing TDs and 0 passing TDs, I'm not going to quibble with how we got enough points to win, just that we do.  

 

So that leads to a much more important question: can Josh Allen's game, throwing and running, lead us to enough victories?  To me, that's a much more important question to answer than what I expect for the Bills passing game.

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I expect to see a lot more formation flexibility and personnel package options in the play calling.  Along with this I think utilizing the pick up's in the draft and free agency will create a lot of uncertainty for the defense in pre-snap recognition of whether the Bills offense is going to run or pass out of those formations.  Should open things up.  For a long time the Bills offense has been very predictable and that changing is going to be a big thing.

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16 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I would like to see 2500-3000 yards and 15 tds 

Josh will probably run a lot of those in as opposed to throw from inside the 5 cause well he’s a monster in that area of the field. 

I’d prefer less than 15 ints. 

 

I think those are rookie stats. We need to see a leap to at least 3500 plus yds passing 26-30 td passes. We don't get these types of passing numbers in his 2nd yr then that's alarming. 

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17 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'm curious as to what is expected from the Bills Offensive Passing game to get them to contend for a Playoff spot.

 

 

 

IMO it's too early to "expect" anything. Too unpredictable. Guess at? Yeah. Hope for? Sure.  Predict? Yeah, why not. 

 

But "expect"? Things aren't clear enough to expect yet.

 

 

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1 hour ago, BillsFan1988 said:

I think those are rookie stats. We need to see a leap to at least 3500 plus yds passing 26-30 td passes. We don't get these types of passing numbers in his 2nd yr then that's alarming. 

 

 

26 TDs would have put him in the top 12 last year. For a 2nd year guy, not reaching the top 12 in the league is hardly alarming.

 

3500 yards is more reasonable, but it would still put him above Russell Wilson and Cam Newton at 18th.

 

This team is likely to stress running and run a higher percentage of runs than most teams. I don't think putting cumulative total stats as his goal is going to make sense. Just my feeling.

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1 hour ago, BillsFan1988 said:

I think those are rookie stats. We need to see a leap to at least 3500 plus yds passing 26-30 td passes. We don't get these types of passing numbers in his 2nd yr then that's alarming. 

 

I do think he’s capable maybe of putting up bigger numbers but I’ve been saying now for awhile I think the coaching staff is gearing for a big time run first approach first. 

It’s just my opinion but I think they will try to protect Allen’s flaws a little especially the first few games by trying to impose their will in the run game and letting him flash some arm talent on playactions etc etc limiting his attempts. If the run game works you won’t see big stats from him. Of course tons of things play into this like being behind early or turnovers. It’s just a theory of mine anyways that they’re planning a heavy run attack 

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