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2019 Bills Passing Game - What do you expect?

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There's been a lot of talk about WRs and everyone knows Josh Allen will need to develop his passing game this year.  We know Daboll wants to run the ball successfully.

I'm curious as to what is expected from the Bills Offensive Passing game to get them to contend for a Playoff spot.

 

First some passing statistics from last year (Team category stats -Net Yards Passing- from NFL.com).

2 Teams had more than 5,000 yards passing.  12 teams had more than 4,000-4,999.  9 teams had 3.500-3,999 and 9 teams had less than 3,500. 

A mid level team had averaged 26 Passing TD and threw the ball about 35 times a game.

 

2018 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,974 - 13 TDs - 31.2 passes per game.

2017 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,825 - 16 TDs - 29.8 passes per game.

2016 Bills Stats (30th) - 3,036 - 17 TDs - 29.6 passes per game.

 

IMO even with a strong running game the Bills / Josh Allen have to break into the "over 3,500 yards barrier" and throw 20+ TDs at a minimum.

Like I said, Just curious as to what the board is expecting this year.  It seems to be the first step and if this thread gets any traction the

next questions would be HOW do they get there?  Wherever "there" is.  The mix between WR, TE and RB would logically follow.

 

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I don't think anybody can realistically "expect" anything specific from the passing game as there are so many unknowns.   Fans can be hopeful but that's based on they're being fans.  Can Josh Allen improve his accuracy enough to become a proficient NFL passer?  Can he master the nuances of the mental game and recognize when to take a chance and when to throw the ball away?  Will the new OL be good enough in pass protection to give Allen the time he needs to make pass plays or will he be running for his life too frequently?  Can the Bills WRs get separation and make clutch catches?   Will Daboll's game plans and play calling give the Bills a respectable NFL passing game? 

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Somewhere around 9-10,000 Yards and 75-85 TDs.

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I’d be thrilled with 3400 yards, 18 passing TD’s and limit the interceptions to 12-14.

 

With our defence and potential running game that likely gets you to 9-10 wins.

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I would like to see 2500-3000 yards and 15 tds 

Josh will probably run a lot of those in as opposed to throw from inside the 5 cause well he’s a monster in that area of the field. 

I’d prefer less than 15 ints. 

 

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4 minutes ago, TOboy said:

I’d be thrilled with 3400 yards, 18 passing TD’s and limit the interceptions to 12-14.

 

With our defence and potential running game that likely gets you to 9-10 wins.

 

That's what I'm asking.  If they have a successful season what does it take.

We're not far apart at all. 

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With Yeldon and Singletary our running game will improve slightly.  I'm not expecting anything from Gore or Shady. My 2019 Josh Allen prediction is as follows:

1.5 tds/game = 24

230 yds/game = 3680

500 yards rushing + 6 tds

12 ints

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If the pass stats are great but it does not result in wins, who cares.  Stat are an indication of success, not the end result.  If a good D and run game get wins while passing less, so be it.

 

What I do want to see from the pass attack:

1.  Pass game carry the team when D and or run game have a bad day.

2.  Consistent production

3.  Make the throws utilizing the entire field.

4.  Hit a few deep balls every game to keep the run and short passes more open.

5. Convert 3rd downs at a high rate.

 

So win and let the stats be an outcome of winning.

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10 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

If the pass stats are great but it does not result in wins, who cares.  Stat are an indication of success, not the end result.  If a good D and run game get wins while passing less, so be it.

 

What I do want to see from the pass attack:

1.  Pass game carry the team when D and or run game have a bad day.

2.  Consistent production

3.  Make the throws utilizing the entire field.

4.  Hit a few deep balls every game to keep the run and short passes more open.

5. Convert 3rd downs at a high rate.

 

So win and let the stats be an outcome of winning.

 

I threw the stats out to show the previous history of the team compared to league.

I'm not one to obsess over player statistics.

 

I like the bolded, Bills fans haven't seen that in a long time.

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Between Brown and Foster, I expect they will have the ability for a quick strike at any moment in any drive.  That fear of the deep ball will open up everything else. It will be as good as Allen is...

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This season the Bills have several receivers who can go deep, Zay Jones runs a 4.5. John Brown runs a 4.3. Robert Foster runs a 4.4.

 

Those deep receivers will open up the middle of the field for Cole Beasley and the TEs. Mostly Beasley who caught 74.7% of the targets thrown his way. It also help with the run game because now the defense can't stack the box or get burned deep. Expect a better season from Shady and Co.

 

Kinda reminiscent of those 90"s Bills with Beebe and Lofton running deep routes which opened up the middle for Andre Reed and help also Thurman Thomas with his cutbacks.

 

The sky really is the limit to what this years offense will do. JMHO

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I think 4,000 yards, 25 td's, and a 60% completion % is possible with better pass protection and actual NFL WR's.  That's pry his ceiling at the moment and I'm always optimistic in May.

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25 minutes ago, TPS said:

Between Brown and Foster, I expect they will have the ability for a quick strike at any moment in any drive.  That fear of the deep ball will open up everything else. It will be as good as Allen is...

 

This. 

 

A solid running game will also help the passing game.

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14 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I think 4,000 yards, 25 td's, and a 60% completion % is possible with better pass protection and actual NFL WR's.  That's pry his ceiling at the moment and I'm always optimistic in May.

 

I can agree that those would be some optimistic ceiling numbers.

Anywhere near that would likely see a successful year the way the team is put together.

 

With Shady and Yeldon on the team and if the OL can actually work up screens and swings properly this year,  there could

be a lot of yards picked up in the RB receiving category.  We all would like to see Josh improve there!

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Posted (edited)

16 completions on 28 attempts 217 yards and a 1.25 TD per game. I am expecting rushing about 32 attempts 135 yards a game and 2 TDS. This is very realistic.

 

3472 yards passing 20 Tds, 2160 yards rushing and 32 TDS, 10 by Josh Allen.

Edited by Tatonka68

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3800 yards, 28 tds, 12 picks 

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I’m looking for 24 points and I really don’t care how they get them.  Field goals, safeties, pick 6, punt returns, passes or 1 yard scrambles.... they’ll all be fun.

 

We average 24, we should be in the playoffs and from there, who knows?

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1 hour ago, hemma said:

I’m looking for 24 points and I really don’t care how they get them.  Field goals, safeties, pick 6, punt returns, passes or 1 yard scrambles.... they’ll all be fun.

 

We average 24, we should be in the playoffs and from there, who knows?

They averaged 22 in Allen's last 6 games, so it shouldn't be difficult to jump that hurdle. In fact, I could easily see them do better--26 ppg would put them in the top 10 (based on 2018).

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With a largely unproven WR corpse [sic], I am expecting little. If JA can get 3500 yds, I'd be pretty happy with that.

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 If Allen has better protection and can back off on the crazy legs running, he'll be markedly better.

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6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

There's been a lot of talk about WRs and everyone knows Josh Allen will need to develop his passing game this year.  We know Daboll wants to run the ball successfully.

I'm curious as to what is expected from the Bills Offensive Passing game to get them to contend for a Playoff spot.

 

First some passing statistics from last year (Team category stats -Net Yards Passing- from NFL.com).

2 Teams had more than 5,000 yards passing.  12 teams had more than 4,000-4,999.  9 teams had 3.500-3,999 and 9 teams had less than 3,500. 

A mid level team had averaged 26 Passing TD and threw the ball about 35 times a game.

 

2018 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,974 - 13 TDs - 31.2 passes per game.

2017 Bills Stats (31st) - 2,825 - 16 TDs - 29.8 passes per game.

2016 Bills Stats (30th) - 3,036 - 17 TDs - 29.6 passes per game.

 

IMO even with a strong running game the Bills / Josh Allen have to break into the "over 3,500 yards barrier" and throw 20+ TDs at a minimum.

Like I said, Just curious as to what the board is expecting this year.  It seems to be the first step and if this thread gets any traction the

next questions would be HOW do they get there?  Wherever "there" is.  The mix between WR, TE and RB would logically follow.

 

Allen will “have to” break those numbers in order for what?  

 

If he plays 16 I expect right around 3500 and 20

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Meaningful improvement

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