Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[NewEraBills]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hey, we very well may be incorrect.  This was never some arrogant guarantee, just my gut feeling based on what McD and Beane have consistently said and based on how many new WR's I expected them to bring in.  So far, they have brought in 3 and are very likely to bring in at least one prominent rookie.  

 

And now, looking at the WR room, I would put Zay already 4th on the depth chart today behind Foster, Brown, and Cole.  Not to mention Duke can still challenge to start or at least for relevant playing time too.  Then you still have McKenzie.  

 

Now add a rookie into the mix, and where does Zay fit so "easily"?  Cole Beasley just took his slot job.  That means Zay now has to complete to start as WR1 or WR2 or he will be a bench and rotational guy.  Brown wasn't signed to sit behind everyone, so he is at least penciled into one of those 2 spots.  Foster already passed Zay in most peoples eyes, and then you will have Duke and a rookie pushing those guys too.  

 

Zay may end up on this roster, but its FAR from a lock.  Slot is gone, Cole is the 100% for sure slot WR this year.  He we have 4 WRs who will challenge for the top 2 WR spots already...Foster, Brown, Zay, Duke plus a 5th one likely to get into the mix from the draft.  Not sure why anyone has great optimism that Zay will beat 3 or 4 other WR's to secure a starting spot. 

 

He will likely be given the chance to, but he hasn't done well in pressure situations prior to this.  And if he doesn't beat out those guys for a starting spot, I think he will be traded for something like a 5th round pick to get some value before spending a season on the bench diminishes all trade value.  

 

To add, the way I see it, Beasley and Brown are starters.  They did not sign them both this early and at those prices to be backups.  So that leaves it at a dog fight between nearly 4 guys.  I doubt we carry more than 6 WR's.  So, I see it the way you do.  Zay Jones, barring some miracle turnaround is in trouble.  As we have said time and time again:

1.  He struggles to win on the perimeter.

2.  He's not going to outrun anyone on the perimeter

3.  He's been inconsistent with his hands.

 

With Beasley taking the slot role he's going to have to play outside which to me gives Foster the upper hand.  Foster needs to work on his route running but the one thing he can do that Zay cannot is run past someone.  He's worked on his hands and gotten better.  So even if we just went with our current group Jones may have already dropped to #4.  In any case if he's on this roster, then he's earned the hell out of it because these acquisitions have almost sealed that last nail in the coffin.  Let's say Zay is already #4 behind Brown, Beasley, and Foster.  What does Duke Williams provide?  Finally, if they bring in a high or mid round pick, what will they provide?  Zay is indeed in trouble.  I didn't see it before, but I do now.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

To add, the way I see it, Beasley and Brown are starters.  They did not sign them both this early and at those prices to be backups.  So that leaves it at a dog fight between nearly 4 guys.  I doubt we carry more than 6 WR's.  So, I see it the way you do.  Zay Jones, barring some miracle turnaround is in trouble.  As we have said time and time again:

1.  He struggles to win on the perimeter.

2.  He's not going to outrun anyone on the perimeter

3.  He's been inconsistent with his hands.

 

With Beasley taking the slot role he's going to have to play outside which to me gives Foster the upper hand.  Foster needs to work on his route running but the one thing he can do that Zay cannot is run past someone.  He's worked on his hands and gotten better.  So even if we just went with our current group Jones may have already dropped to #4.  In any case if he's on this roster, then he's earned the hell out of it because these acquisitions have almost sealed that last nail in the coffin.  Let's say Zay is already #4 behind Brown, Beasley, and Foster.  What does Duke Williams provide?  Finally, if they bring in a high or mid round pick, what will they provide?  Zay is indeed in trouble.  I didn't see it before, but I do now.

 

Good post, and yes, this is exactly what I see too and have seen which is what prompted me to create this thread originally.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

On 2/27/2019 at 4:23 PM, Flip Johnson said:

 

This is the rare, well-written, carefully reasoned, totally ridiculous take on this board.

 

The Bills need WRs. 

They have a 23yr old that they invested a 2nd round pick in.

He is cost-controlled.

He more than doubled his catches in year 2.

 

There is zero chance he gets cut this year.

 

 

John Brown: 3 year, 27 million dollar deal

Cole Beasley, 4 year, 29 million dollar deal

 

If it's between Zay, Foster and Duke, then you may very well have made your own self look ridiculous.

 

GOOD LUCK, CHUCK!!!

[eball]

1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said:

You two will both be incorrect.

 

Yep, could be.  I clearly can't make up my mind with respect to Zay! 

[VW82]

I'd be more than a little surprised if Zay isn't on the team this year. I can't take issue with any of OP's criticisms, except maybe that Zay seems like a high IQ player and I think he's a pretty good blocker for a WR, but he's still likely to be top 5-6 on the depth chart. If not, show me the six guys who are making the team over Zay. The fact he's a recent high pick of this regime, he's young and cheap, and by all accounts is a good locker room guy, has a strong work ethic, etc.,..I just don't see McBeane moving on from him so quickly.  

Edited March 12, 2019 by VW82

[Reader]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hey, we very well may be incorrect.  This was never some arrogant guarantee, just my gut feeling based on what McD and Beane have consistently said and based on how many new WR's I expected them to bring in.  So far, they have brought in 3 and are very likely to bring in at least one prominent rookie.  

 

And now, looking at the WR room, I would put Zay already 4th on the depth chart today behind Foster, Brown, and Cole.  Not to mention Duke can still challenge to start or at least for relevant playing time too.  Then you still have McKenzie.  

 

Now add a rookie into the mix, and where does Zay fit so "easily"?  Cole Beasley just took his slot job.  That means Zay now has to complete to start as WR1 or WR2 or he will be a bench and rotational guy.  Brown wasn't signed to sit behind everyone, so he is at least penciled into one of those 2 spots.  Foster already passed Zay in most peoples eyes, and then you will have Duke and a rookie pushing those guys too.  

 

Zay may end up on this roster, but its FAR from a lock.  Slot is gone, Cole is the 100% for sure slot WR this year.  He we have 4 WRs who will challenge for the top 2 WR spots already...Foster, Brown, Zay, Duke plus a 5th one likely to get into the mix from the draft.  Not sure why anyone has great optimism that Zay will beat 3 or 4 other WR's to secure a starting spot. 

 

He will likely be given the chance to, but he hasn't done well in pressure situations prior to this.  And if he doesn't beat out those guys for a starting spot, I think he will be traded for something like a 5th round pick to get some value before spending a season on the bench diminishes all trade value.  

 

I'm not very knowledgeable about Brown's or Beasley's run blocking abilities. Are any of the WR's better at blocking than Jones? From what I remember (which of course isn't the most reliable) Jones was able to set up some really good blocks during the year. If he is our best blocking WR that could be an important factor.

[Matt_In_NH]

I would argue zay was better than Beasley last year.   Or at least they had comparable stat lines but zay had significantly more tds.  

[WideNine]

On 3/12/2019 at 4:10 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hey, we very well may be incorrect.  This was never some arrogant guarantee, just my gut feeling based on what McD and Beane have consistently said and based on how many new WR's I expected them to bring in.  So far, they have brought in 3 and are very likely to bring in at least one prominent rookie.  

 

And now, looking at the WR room, I would put Zay already 4th on the depth chart today behind Foster, Brown, and Cole.  Not to mention Duke can still challenge to start or at least for relevant playing time too.  Then you still have McKenzie.  

 

Now add a rookie into the mix, and where does Zay fit so "easily"?  Cole Beasley just took his slot job.  That means Zay now has to complete to start as WR1 or WR2 or he will be a bench and rotational guy.  Brown wasn't signed to sit behind everyone, so he is at least penciled into one of those 2 spots.  Foster already passed Zay in most peoples eyes, and then you will have Duke and a rookie pushing those guys too.  

 

Zay may end up on this roster, but its FAR from a lock.  Slot is gone, Cole is the 100% for sure slot WR this year.  He we have 4 WRs who will challenge for the top 2 WR spots already...Foster, Brown, Zay, Duke plus a 5th one likely to get into the mix from the draft.  Not sure why anyone has great optimism that Zay will beat 3 or 4 other WR's to secure a starting spot. 

 

He will likely be given the chance to, but he hasn't done well in pressure situations prior to this.  And if he doesn't beat out those guys for a starting spot, I think he will be traded for something like a 5th round pick to get some value before spending a season on the bench diminishes all trade value.  

 

Never thought your take was too far-fetched.

 

I don't think that the McBean FO has been that reluctant to jettison players or coaches they have brought in if they felt they could improve that area with someone else, and all the comments about looking to add receivers who can catch the ball...

 

Addition by subtraction and makes sense if they can upgrade the spot...thoughts of him moving to a slot role are out too - the Beasley signing looks like that to me.

 

If Zay is not worried, he should be.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by WideNine

[Bing Bong]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I wasn't saying Zay cant, I was stating that the "Year 3" factor has been mentioned many times in several threads and that the "Year 3" theory on WR's has been debunked many times.  

 

So the point was, any WR going into their 3rd year does NOT have a higher chance of breaking out just because its their 3rd year.  That "3 year" WR theory has been debunked many times.  

Have you debunked it somewhere? Just genuinely want to know how that's debunked. Any examples or anything?

 

It's super common in fantasy football is all I'm coming from. The general rule is year 3 is the year you generally can tell a WRs trajectory. So it's not to say he can't hit his potential earlier, rookie or sophomore year.. but it's more that year 3 of poor results is the year a WR likely shows he won't break out.. so fantasy sleepers are often year 3 guys. Year 4 is too many years of poor production. 

 

Also it's fantasy so not exactly a reflection on actual development but more a combination of that and the guy getting a larger role in the offense.

 

But have you/some source debunked this on previous posts or are just saying it's debunked. Fantasy football nerds have crunched that WR sleepers are by far year 3 guys. I understand they can be good before. And in Zay's case he's had plenty of usage in 2 years already.

Edited March 13, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Have you debunked it somewhere? Just genuinely want to know how that's debunked. Any examples or anything?

 

It's super common in fantasy football is all I'm coming from. The general rule is year 3 is the year you generally can tell a WRs trajectory. So it's not to say he can't hit his potential earlier, rookie or sophomore year.. but it's more that year 3 of poor results is the year a WR likely shows he won't break out.. so fantasy sleepers are often year 3 guys. Year 4 is too many years of poor production. 

 

Also it's fantasy so not exactly a reflection on actual development but more a combination of that and the guy getting a larger role in the offense.

 

But have you/some source debunked this on previous posts or are just saying it's debunked. Fantasy football nerds have crunched that WR sleepers are by far year 3 guys. I understand they can be good before. And in Zay's case he's had plenty of usage in 2 years already.

 

I am a fantasy football junkie to say the least, ha.  So love the FFL tie in.

 

But its been debunked (fantasy included) many times.  There is a big difference though when looking at it from fantasy.  There is "breakout" season and then there is continued development and rising production.  So saying that in year 3 a WR may his best season doesn't also qualify that as his break out season.  He may have broken out in years 1 and 2 then goes out and puts up a bigger season in year 3.  Also years 5-7 are actually usually the most consistently productive for WR's. 

 

So the correlation to FFL isn't the same as how you would grade a WR in terms of whether or not he is going to be a good player or bust.  A breakout is just that, a WR's first relevant season.  

 

For example, here is one sample case showing it that comes from a fantasy site too.  But this has literally been debunked many times over the years.  https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/02/19/factoid/third-year-breakout-for-wide-receivers

[Bing Bong]

26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am a fantasy football junkie to say the least, ha.  So love the FFL tie in.

 

But its been debunked (fantasy included) many times.  There is a big difference though when looking at it from fantasy.  There is "breakout" season and then there is continued development and rising production.  So saying that in year 3 a WR may his best season doesn't also qualify that as his break out season.  He may have broken out in years 1 and 2 then goes out and puts up a bigger season in year 3.  Also years 5-7 are actually usually the most consistently productive for WR's. 

 

So the correlation to FFL isn't the same as how you would grade a WR in terms of whether or not he is going to be a good player or bust.  A breakout is just that, a WR's first relevant season.  

 

For example, here is one sample case showing it that comes from a fantasy site too.  But this has literally been debunked many times over the years.  https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/02/19/factoid/third-year-breakout-for-wide-receivers

Not quite how I've interpreted the year 3 thing. I'm not looking for peak years at 3 from guys that have already broken out.

 

Mostly talking about sleepers. So no breakouts. A guy that's just totally overlooked because he's had bad production years 1 and 2. So high value / ceiling guys on the cheap.. I'm looking at 3rd year WRs that have underperformed so far because they're undervalued yet that's when they're most likely to break out if at all.

 

So I don't look for sleepers as guys that have already broken out before (they're not necessarily sleepers), or haven't broken out at 3 (they're not likely to break out ever).

 

My understanding is essentially a guy is most likely to break out years 1-3 and that the breakout becomes much less likely after. So I look at guys that haven't broken out and are at year 3. If they break out, I have my low investment sleeper return. Not looking for any peak performance at year 3, just breakout at 3 when people aren't valuing the dude after 2 years. 

 

I do agree that people make the statement that the peak hits at 3, which isn't true or helpful really, whereas i think fantasy value ties more to catching a breakout when it's most likely: a player that hasn't broken out hitting year 3 is very likely to break out that year (provided if he ever is to be productive) than for the rest of his career.

 

Ultimately tying back to Zay he's had such high usage you could argue he broke out last year. He's not some fantasy case where he's simply finally getting a shot on the depth chart. But if he's going to have a great career.. I wouldn't rule it out until this next year. Then his career trajectory should be much more clear. So I'd keep him around for that fact and that he's on a rookie contract and really hasn't shown the skills I thought he was supposed to have from the college level. If it's the same by year 4 I'm pretty iffy going forward with him.

 

Anyways sounds like you actually may be right on your hot take with our 2 WR signings already.. but I'd keep him if we have enough roster spots lol.

[BillsFan17]

Depends how the draft falls. If they get a good WR early, they are def going to ship out Zay.

[Mat68]

More pass catchers the better.  I wont be surprised if he is the most prolific Wr we have at the end of the year next year.  Catches, Yards, TDs.  Comes down to who will Allen have the best repor with.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

More pass catchers the better.  I wont be surprised if he is the most prolific Wr we have at the end of the year next year.  Catches, Yards, TDs.  Comes down to who will Allen have the best repor with.  

 

...rapport  

[Mat68]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

...rapport  

I'm certainly no English major.

[Shaw66]

Alpha, I gotta say that Brown and Beasley make your prediction look pretty good.  Beasley and Duke threaten Zay big time.

[Chuck Wagon]

Foster / Brown / Beasley all seem to have pretty defined roles.

 

I think we want to go rotation heavy with the WR group, ie not having one guy playing 98% of the snaps to keep everyone fresh. It's safe to say Zay / Duke / McKenzie / McCloud / Bolden / Thompson are all competing for playing time and roster spots.  The draft will likely say a lot of how the team views Zay, WR is a very deep position and if we grab one on day 2, Zay better be bringing it hard in camp.

[BadtasteinQBs]

This is obviously a statement to grab attention. 

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, BadtasteinQBs said:

This is obviously a statement to grab attention. 

Based on what? It was a very thoughtful post.

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

I think Jones will be our best receiver next year which will make our free agent signings likely disappointing.  

[BadtasteinQBs]

Zay Jones had 7 TDs last year, and doubled his production. He will still be on his rookie contract. Injuries happen. They will hold onto Foster, Jones, Beasley, Brown, and McKenzie. If Duke shows well, maybe he makes the roster. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, BadtasteinQBs said:

Zay Jones had 7 TDs last year, and doubled his production. He will still be on his rookie contract. Injuries happen. They will hold onto Foster, Jones, Beasley, Brown, and McKenzie. If Duke shows well, maybe he makes the roster. 

With the acquisition of Beasley, I think McKenzie will be cut and Zay remains but only as depth. I think Duke will sneak in as the last wr.

[Flip Johnson]

18 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

John Brown: 3 year, 27 million dollar deal

Cole Beasley, 4 year, 29 million dollar deal

 

If it's between Zay, Foster and Duke, then you may very well have made your own self look ridiculous.

 

GOOD LUCK, CHUCK!!!

 

It would be strange to interpret the signing of Beasley and Brown as a shot across the bow against Zay Jones and Foster. 

[Real McClappy]

The hate for a 2nd round pick here since year 1 is comical around these parts. 

 

Year one with Tyrod and Peterman at QB in his rookie year is a joke.

 

Year two, some progression amazingly with Peterman, Anderson, Barkley, Rookie Allen,  and one of the worst O-lines I think I have ever seen and the guy pops up #2 WR numbers (650yds+ and 7td's). 

 

Yeah, def needs to be traded.  When he is traded and starts producing like Woods for team X with and established QB, what's said of Beane and McD from the same Zay haters?

[transplantbillsfan]

Doubt it.

 

Beane really likes Zay.  There was some interview this offseason where he went out of his way to praise Zay and even mentioning the need to come up with a contract for him in a couple years.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

4 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

The hate for a 2nd round pick here since year 1 is comical around these parts. 

 

Year one with Tyrod and Peterman at QB in his rookie year is a joke.

 

Year two, some progression amazingly with Peterman, Anderson, Barkley, Rookie Allen,  and one of the worst O-lines I think I have ever seen and the guy pops up #2 WR numbers (650yds+ and 7td's). 

 

Yeah, def needs to be traded.  When he is traded and starts producing like Woods for team X with and established QB, what's said of Beane and McD from the same Zay haters?

 

This fan base is obsessed with cutting guys.  

[YoloinOhio]

Still think he’s here. 

[kota]

LOL at anyone who thinks Zay will be gone.  He improved dramatically this year especially after the QB carousal stopped and it was just Josh.

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

The hate for a 2nd round pick here since year 1 is comical around these parts. 

 

Year one with Tyrod and Peterman at QB in his rookie year is a joke.

 

Year two, some progression amazingly with Peterman, Anderson, Barkley, Rookie Allen,  and one of the worst O-lines I think I have ever seen and the guy pops up #2 WR numbers (650yds+ and 7td's). 

 

Yeah, def needs to be traded.  When he is traded and starts producing like Woods for team X with and established QB, what's said of Beane and McD from the same Zay haters?

 

Why jump to the extreme and declare that people "hate" Zay.  It's an issue of him not getting involved, although some of that is on the QB situation, Foster out-played him down the stretch as a former UDFA. 

 

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Doubt it.

 

Beane really likes Zay.  There was some interview this offseason where he went out of his way to praise Zay and even mentioning the need to come up with a contract for him in a couple years.

 

Beane didn't pick Zay, and as I've heard all along, has nothing to do with the acquisitions prior to becoming GM in early May 2017. 

 

And, sometimes praise is the kiss of death.  Ever see the Godfather?

 

[John from Riverside]

10 minutes ago, kota said:

LOL at anyone who thinks Zay will be gone.  He improved dramatically this year especially after the QB carousal stopped and it was just Josh.

I also thought he improved last year......it was improvement from dismal to average.......can he make another similar jump this year?

 

You REALLY do not want to throw away 2nd round pick players

[Real McClappy]

2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Why jump to the extreme and declare that people "hate" Zay.  It's an issue of him not getting involved, although some of that is on the QB situation, Foster out-played him down the stretch as a former UDFA. 

 

It's rather obvious if you were here reading posts last season about Zay Jones and the ones here the last several days. 

 

The comparisons of Foster to Zay doesn't hold any weight at all as they are completely different WR's. I like Foster a lot with his straight burner speed that we need, but that is one dimensional. Foster actually complemented Zay Jones a ton as well when on the field but most missed that I guess? When Foster rejoined the last 7 weeks of play Zay played 6 games and had 6 TDs. 

 

There were other changes as well with idiot KB when our OC play calling basically started to ignore him in November and Allen returning from injury looking much improved the last 5 weeks.

 

Let Zay and Allen develop another year together and see how it goes.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Real McCoy

[H2o]

On 2/27/2019 at 3:46 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

I could be wrong, but this is just what I believe based on the additions I expect Beane to make in the WR room.  I have no issues if others don't agree, just my opinion on the matter, nothing more.  

 

I have consistently said this all off season, and McDermott just said something again that enforces that belief. 

When this happens you will then be known as Alphadamus. 

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, H2o said:

When this happens you will then be known as Alphadamus. 

 

hahaha, hmmmm, maybe I will change my name to that if so haha

[JaCrispy]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

With the acquisition of Beasley, I think McKenzie will be cut and Zay remains but only as depth. I think Duke will sneak in as the last wr.

I think Zay will have to learn special teams if he wants to hang around as depth...

[MacGyver]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Still think he’s here. 

 

I think so too, hopefully fighting for a roster spot is a final wake-up call for him.

Edited March 13, 2019 by MacGyver

[Alphadawg7]

48 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

It's rather obvious if you were here reading posts last season about Zay Jones and the ones here the last several days. 

 

The comparisons of Foster to Zay doesn't hold any weight at all as they are completely different WR's. I like Foster a lot with his straight burner speed that we need, but that is one dimensional. Foster actually complemented Zay Jones a ton as well when on the field but most missed that I guess? When Foster rejoined the last 7 weeks of play Zay played 6 games and had 6 TDs. 

 

There were other changes as well with idiot KB when our OC play calling basically started to ignore him in November and Allen returning from injury looking much improved the last 5 weeks.

 

Let Zay and Allen develop another year together and see how it goes.

 

Lets not over exaggerate the 6 TDs.  4 came against the pathetic Dolphins including the final week where they didn't even show up.  And those 4 represent 45% of his career TD's over 30 games.  

 

Look, I get why some people disagree, thats fine, its all good.  But one thing that keeps getting repeated is his "stats".  Literally fools gold in stat totals.  It provides no context to his actual week to week performance.  I mean he still had 10 games under 40 yards this year receiving and 22 out of his 30 were under 40 yards.  

 

Most importantly, this isn't even about his "stats".  Lets look at the WR room right now:

• Foster:  What does Zay do better than Foster?  Nothing yet.  Both about the same on route running.  Foster is Faster.  Foster has better hands.  And Foster gets more separation.  
• Brown:  What does Zay do better than Brown?  Nothing yet.  About the same (at least last year) with their hands.  Brown is faster.  Brown gets better separation.  Brown is a better route runner.  Brown makes tougher catches.  Brown has a better resume.
• Beasley:  What does Zay do better than Beasley?  Nothing yet.  Speed is comparable, but Beasley is quicker.  Beasley has superior hands, superior route runner, and superior at getting separation.  
• Duke:  Why does Zay do better than Duke?  TBD - we dont know enough yet on Duke.  But what we do know, is Duke appears to have a better catch radius, make more contested catches, and shown better hands (albeit against lesser competition).  What we dont know yet is if Duke can do some of those same things at the NFL level or how he will do at getting separation and running routes.  So hard to say here, but its worth noting Duke should not be over looked.
• ROOKIE:  What will Zay do better than the rookie?  TBD as we dont know the rookie yet nor how they will be on the field once camp begins.  But assure you that the WR we draft likely projects better than Zay in terms of speed, hands, and route running.  

So all this "but his 7 TD's" is smoke and mirrors of looking at stat totals and ignoring the context of the situation and the competition staring Zay right in the face right now.  And its likely going to get MORE competitive with a rookie addition and we still have McKenzie who is a good ST player too, something Zay is not, at least not yet.  

 

None of this is about "hate" for Zay, its about being honest with what he has shown on the filed and who he is facing for competition to remain a relevant part of the offense.  I will be thrilled if he beats my skepticism and beats those guys out for WR1 or WR2 starting spot (no way he beats Beasley out for the slot), thats good for the Bills.  

 

He is not a bum, he has the ability to play in the NFL.  But I am skeptical he can beat those guys out for a starting role.  And if he isn't starting, I see Beane trying to move him to get value before all trade value is gone.   

 

3 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

This fan base is obsessed with cutting guys.  

 

Again...read the OP and my replies.  Said MANY times that I never said CUT, I said I think he will fall down the depth chart and Beane will trade him for value before being buried on the depth chart for a season diminishes his trade value further.  

Edited March 13, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[MrEpsYtown]

I don't hate Zay, I just think, when you are a reciever, you should be able to catch the ball. That's all. He's nothing special. He does nothing special. Doesn't beat guys, isn't super fast, has zero RAC ability, and drops a ton of balls. He is more of a liability than anything. I don't care who the quarterback is, you gotta catch the ball. 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Yeah, def needs to be traded.  When he is traded and starts producing like Woods for team X with and established QB, what's said of Beane and McD from the same Zay haters?

 

You mean like how everyone said this about Stevie Johnson who went on to see his career end quickly outside Buffalo?  I heard all this about SJ, and like Zay I was initially a fan of SJ.  But his play was always "opportunistic" where he did very little when it mattered and would get large chunks of stat totals in non relevant periods where game was already decided (usually bad losses).  

 

Zay has not done a whole lot in important parts of games, in fact, has most often failed to make a play when it really mattered.  He has mostly been able to capitalize on broken plays where Josh scrambles or against bad teams.  I will be impressed when Zay is open on his initial route, not when a DB loses him while Allen is scrambling because Allen had to scramble since no WR's were open on their initial routes.  I will be impressed when Zay can handle a good DB and not get completely dominated by them like against Det and Pats this year.  

Edited March 13, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lets not over exaggerate the 6 TDs.  4 came against the pathetic Dolphins including the final week where they didn't even show up.  And those 4 represent 45% of his career TD's over 30 games.  

 

Look, I get why some people disagree, thats fine, its all good.  But one thing that keeps getting repeated is his "stats".  Literally fools gold in stat totals.  It provides no context to his actual week to week performance.  I mean he still had 10 games under 40 yards this year receiving and 22 out of his 30 were under 40 yards.  

 

Most importantly, this isn't even about his "stats".  Lets look at the WR room right now:

• Foster:  What does Zay do better than Foster?  Nothing yet.  Both about the same on route running.  Foster is Faster.  Foster has better hands.  And Foster gets more separation.  
• Brown:  What does Zay do better than Brown?  Nothing yet.  About the same (at least last year) with their hands.  Brown is faster.  Brown gets better separation.  Brown is a better route runner.  Brown makes tougher catches.  Brown has a better resume.
• Beasley:  What does Zay do better than Beasley?  Nothing yet.  Speed is comparable, but Beasley is quicker.  Beasley has superior hands, superior route runner, and superior at getting separation.  
• Duke:  Why does Zay do better than Duke?  TBD - we dont know enough yet on Duke.  But what we do know, is Duke appears to have a better catch radius, make more contested catches, and shown better hands (albeit against lesser competition).  What we dont know yet is if Duke can do some of those same things at the NFL level or how he will do at getting separation and running routes.  So hard to say here, but its worth noting Duke should not be over looked.
• ROOKIE:  What will Zay do better than the rookie?  TBD as we dont know the rookie yet nor how they will be on the field once camp begins.  But assure you that the WR we draft likely projects better than Zay in terms of speed, hands, and route running.  

So all this "but his 7 TD's" is smoke and mirrors of looking at stat totals and ignoring the context of the situation and the competition staring Zay right in the face right now.  And its likely going to get MORE competitive with a rookie addition and we still have McKenzie who is a good ST player too, something Zay is not, at least not yet.  

 

None of this is about "hate" for Zay, its about being honest with what he has shown on the filed and who he is facing for competition to remain a relevant part of the offense.  I will be thrilled if he beats my skepticism and beats those guys out for WR1 or WR2 starting spot (no way he beats Beasley out for the slot), thats good for the Bills.  

 

He is not a bum, he has the ability to play in the NFL.  But I am skeptical he can beat those guys out for a starting role.  And if he isn't starting, I see Beane trying to move him to get value before all trade value is gone.   

 

 

Again...read the OP and my replies.  Said MANY times that I never said CUT, I said I think he will fall down the depth chart and Beane will trade him for value before being buried on the depth chart for a season diminishes his trade value further.  

 

I get it, and I give you credit for that. But the vague “trade so and so” talk is coded language for get them offf the team. His value is like a 6th. A guy who probably won’t make the team. It’s tantamount to cutting him.

[Real McClappy]

28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You mean like how everyone said this about Stevie Johnson who went on to see his career end quickly outside Buffalo?  I heard all this about SJ, and like Zay I was initially a fan of SJ.  But his play was always "opportunistic" where he did very little when it mattered and would get large chunks of stat totals in non relevant periods where game was already decided (usually bad losses).  

 

Zay has not done a whole lot in important parts of games, in fact, has most often failed to make a play when it really mattered.  He has mostly been able to capitalize on broken plays where Josh scrambles or against bad teams.  I will be impressed when Zay is open on his initial route, not when a DB loses him while Allen is scrambling because Allen had to scramble since no WR's were open on their initial routes.  I will be impressed when Zay can handle a good DB and not get completely dominated by them like against Det and Pats this year.  

No I mean Woods like I said whom I never gave up on as well when he was a Bill like many other forum fans did. The reason for that was simple as I knew some lumps as poor QB play was the only thing holding the guy back.  You honestly don't think poor OC play calling and QB play year 1 did not affect him? Or last seasons 4 QB carousel and horrible O-line pass protection did not either? 

 

Things take time to develop and I'm willing to see it pan out between him and Allen another year before I make my final assessment.  I'm pretty sure Beane and McD see it the exact same way as well. 

So I'm calling it now: Zay Jones will 100% be on the roster and in the starting WR rotation week 1 if not injured.