Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Fully agree that Jones is a garbage-time master, on both ends, routing and playing-from-behind.  He was like that at EC too.  He's far from being a clutch/impact player.  

 

As to Foster, his biggest plays as well were on broken coverages.  One I just mentioned, forget the game, but his 75-yarder, was on a misread by the FS as he went uncovered on the early part of the route. 

 

I'm not sold that Foster is bad, but he definitely needs to show that he can catch regularly in coverage/man-to-man.  Here's the thing re: Foster, like everyone else, he posted three of his four big games w/ Allen out, featuring Barkley in one, Peterman in another, and Anderson in the other two, not even any continuity.  

 

Still, in those four games he posted 13 catches for 330 yards for an average of 3 catches for 82 yards. 

 

Under Allen he had 14 catches for 211 yards for an average of about 1 catch for fewer than 20 yards/game.  

 

Everyone just looks at the bottom-line stats and discounts the how or why they're there.  Remember, Allen, other than his two games vs. Miami, averaged a pathetic 162 yards/game otherwise.  I don't care how you spread out 162 yards and one TD every other game, major-league improvement has to be made in Allen's game and it's his short-medium game that are going to have to fill in the gaps, not more deep stuff.  

 

Either way, when the team averages 215 yards and posts its two best passing games of the season featuring four different QBs, none of which have played regularly or recently besides Peterman, but under Allen it averages over 40 yards-per-game less, then I would think that that's an issue that can't be as easily overstepped as most are doing here.  

 

Yeah don't disagree with you there, Allen needs to improve.  I certainly am convinced he will improve though.  While his passing stats were not as strong in those other games, he made up with it in several with his legs.  300 yards over 3 games even.  But, I don't see Allen as a running QB, I see him as a guy who can crush the defense when the opportunity is there or is forced to.  And this past year, with the crap we had at WR, TE and the OL he was unfortunately forced to more than we would like.  Not to mention, Allen was a rookie who also split time 3 way coming into the year, so reading the defense was something he had to learn on the job like all rookies.

 

So with an improved OL, improved receiving options, and what should be an improved run game from our RB's I think josh will see a big spike in passing production and his run production will be in the neighborhood of 500 to 600 yards on the season.  

 

Foster I will argue gets painted as a 1 trick pony, but if you go back and watch the highlights I think you see potential to be more than that.  Like Allen he has a lot of work to do, and like Allen he is putting that work in and the hard work has already paid dividends.  

Edited March 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

It is what it is.   It ain't what it ain't.  

This right here kills your whole post

 

It is in fact.....not what it is because you dont know what "it is" yet.

[3rdand12]

4 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

Think he sticks as a depth player for 2019 if they dont draft a wr early or trade for a wr.  Beane mentioned liking having extra cap space to handle being able to trade for a bigger salaried player.  We could still see a trade for a true #1 WR or edge rusher before or maybe during the draft.  He isnt hot garbage just not a nfl starter and certainly not worth where he was selected.

I do not feel Jone is a lock to be gone.
But it is getting crowded. and he was drafted as slot receiver.
also i bet McBeanes have NO allegiance to the kid after his antics.
take the trade , unless he shines in camp

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

 

Arguing without even remembering the foundation of the argument Beta dog? .... ?‍♂️ 

 

 

 

 

 

What do you mean?  You entered into this recent part of the thread saying its Foster on the bubble, not Jones.  And that Foster is already the least likely of the 5 to not be on the team week 1.  So I was clarifying what exactly you are "pinning" here for "September" and gave you the opportunity to clarify.  Which you still haven't done...so what is your stance if that is not correct?  Because your posts sure seem to suggest thats what you are saying.  

 

And I am not saying this mockingly, I am simply asking you to clarify what it is you want to be pinned to revisit in September amongst your comments.  

[Ronin]

16 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I don't disagree with a whole with your thought process, but I think diminishing Foster into "his stats were because the defense messed up" is a bit simplified

 

We can agree that he's at least shown enough to warrant him being on the roster this year, and that he goes into the season clearly locked ahead of Zay and behind brown and Beasley

 

I'm not entirely diminishing him in that way, but honestly and by the same token you cannot insist that it's meaningless.  

 

He definitely deserves a shot on the roster, in fact, I'd say he's our #1 until proven otherwise.  IMO we're going to see real quickly that Brown ain't all that.  Once again, his catch % sucks, it's right down there with Jones.  Also, as I've pointed out, the narrative on him simply doesn't fit.  He's supposed to be this crazy deep threat, but out of only 22 career TDs, an average of merely 4/season, he has only three TDs of greater than 33 yards none having been in the last three seasons.  18 of his 22 were from 30 on down, 17 of 22 from 24 on down, and that's the total play, not even  where he caught the ball, which obviously wasn't even that deep on most of those passes.  

 

Something's amiss between the narrative and reality there, partially the viability of the deep-ball in terms of contributing to more than  a victory or two in a season.  

[DuckyBoys]

Foster is more likely to be the most productive wr on the roster than getting cut.  Judging Allen just by his stats without taking into context what the Bills had going on seems silly.   Lets see what he looks like with even a middle of the road  O line and wrs that might actually be able to get open right away. 

[Ronin]

4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

This right here kills your whole post

 

It is in fact.....not what it is because you dont know what "it is" yet.

 

See ya John, nothing personal, I just can't put up with posts like this anymore.  I don't have the inclination or patience.  All you want to do is argue regardless of the data.  You'll be on ignore for me, so if I don't respond to you, that's why.  

[SouthNYfan]

10 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I'm not entirely diminishing him in that way, but honestly and by the same token you cannot insist that it's meaningless.  

 

He definitely deserves a shot on the roster, in fact, I'd say he's our #1 until proven otherwise.  IMO we're going to see real quickly that Brown ain't all that.  Once again, his catch % sucks, it's right down there with Jones.  Also, as I've pointed out, the narrative on him simply doesn't fit.  He's supposed to be this crazy deep threat, but out of only 22 career TDs, an average of merely 4/season, he has only three TDs of greater than 33 yards none having been in the last three seasons.  18 of his 22 were from 30 on down, 17 of 22 from 24 on down, and that's the total play, not even  where he caught the ball, which obviously wasn't even that deep on most of those passes.  

 

Something's amiss between the narrative and reality there, partially the viability of the deep-ball in terms of contributing to more than  a victory or two in a season.  

 

I don't think it's meaningless at all, I think we were both oversimplified with our stance.

 

I would say Beasley is the #1 even if he's a slot guy (so it's tyreke Hill) , with Foster and brown at #2/3 coinflip

I agree completely on Brown, something doesn't add up with his production vs what he's stated to be

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I'm not entirely diminishing him in that way, but honestly and by the same token you cannot insist that it's meaningless.  

 

He definitely deserves a shot on the roster, in fact, I'd say he's our #1 until proven otherwise.  IMO we're going to see real quickly that Brown ain't all that.  Once again, his catch % sucks, it's right down there with Jones.  Also, as I've pointed out, the narrative on him simply doesn't fit.  He's supposed to be this crazy deep threat, but out of only 22 career TDs, an average of merely 4/season, he has only three TDs of greater than 33 yards none having been in the last three seasons.  18 of his 22 were from 30 on down, 17 of 22 from 24 on down, and that's the total play, not even  where he caught the ball, which obviously wasn't even that deep on most of those passes.  

 

Something's amiss between the narrative and reality there, partially the viability of the deep-ball in terms of contributing to more than  a victory or two in a season.  

 

Honestly, don't really disagree with you on this.  I think the perception is that Brown may be the de facto #1 given the 4 year contract, but I still think its really Foster until people hit the field.  Couple of reasons, he was clearly finding a groove with Allen, he clearly impressed the team and coaches with how he emerged when brought back, he has worked hard then and still now with Allen out in CA, and Brown still needs to learn the offense and build rapport with Allen.  

 

Brown has the better overall resume though, so I get why he is seen as that.  But like you pointed out, he doesn't have a track record of reliable hands.  This is why I still feel strongly that Beane is either going to pull the trigger on a WR in the first or 2nd round.  And if its the first round, that could be DK at 9 (although I think thats the least likely scenario) or it could be from a trade down from 9 and grab someone like say Harry or even DK if he sticks around on the board (not likely DK slides too far down though) or even in a trade up back into the first round if a guy they covets lasts.  

 

I don't think Beane is done with this WR group.  Brown is a nice complimentary piece to Allen given he has that deep speed too.  Cole is a slot master.  Foster is at the very least another deep threat with the potential still to be more.  What is missing is that prospect to be that game changing threat and that comes in all shapes and sizes such as Megatron, Boldin, Antonio, Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, etc.  So its going to come down to which WR Beane sees as someone who can be "The Guy" at WR1.  

Edited March 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[John from Riverside]

12 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

See ya John, nothing personal, I just can't put up with posts like this anymore.  I don't have the inclination or patience.  All you want to do is argue regardless of the data.  You'll be on ignore for me, so if I don't respond to you, that's why.  

My heart bleeds for this.....truly

[Ronin]

5 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I don't think it's meaningless at all, I think we were both oversimplified with our stance.

 

I would say Beasley is the #1 even if he's a slot guy (so it's tyreke Hill) , with Foster and brown at #2/3 coinflip

I agree completely on Brown, something doesn't add up with his production vs what he's stated to be

 

I won't disagree on Beasley, on many teams he's a bona fide #1 slot WR.  I simply don't see him doing that here, and frankly, if Allen' doesn't begin throwing for more than 200 ypg, no one's going to be doing much of anything.  Point there also being that Allen didn't make use of that position much last season.  Even Jones, whose role that was, seemed to make most of his catches downfield and along the sidelines, not primarily that role.  

 

Again, much of this comes down to what extent/degree people think that Allen's passing woes fall on him rather than on everyone else on the team ranging from WRs, to TEs, to OL, to poor RB play to balance.  There seems to be a preponderance, understandably if not rationally, suggesting the latter rather than the former, which is where I sit.  IMO Allen's passing woes have a whole lot more to do with Allen than anything else.  

 

Whether that can be and will be corrected is another issue altogether, but problem recognition is the first step towards problem correction. 

 

I'm not convinced that the team is pursuing the correct methodology to correct Allen's issues, or the passing issues, however one looks at it.  One of those things being that his biggest weakness by a country mile is his short game, but the emphasis is clearly on giving him more deep tools to work with, which merely feeds the problem, not corrects it.  

 

We'll find out soon.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Please explain how college performance has ANYTHING to do with the NFL

 You said look deeper... I saw him benefit from Allen extending a few plays a ridiculous amount of time where he was able to catch it way downfild and outrun a safety and corner to the pylon because he is super fast. 

 

didn't see even close to a complete WR. Didn’t see slants, ins, outs, curls, blocking etc. 

 

He’s proven he’s at least TJ Graham, I’ll give that. Might even get to Goodwin level or more.... but Lots more to prove.

 

I figured maybe you saw something further back in time I missed? 

[Alphadawg7]

Funny I never thought this thread would go more than a few pages.  Just want to say thanks to everyone who chimed in on both sides and continued on in mostly good discussion on either side.

 

When I started this thread, it was never meant to be some arrogant guarantee and if you read my OP I said this was my gut feeling based on what I believe is going to be added to the WR room and my belief in whether Zay could hold his own against the increased competition.  So far Beane has done everything I expected him to do, so all its done is further my belief Zay is in danger of not being on this roster come week 1.

 

I have no issue with this being a "wrong gut feeling", no ego in being right about this.  Its just how I honestly felt based on what I see from Zay and how I expected to see Beane add competition.  If Zay rises to the top, thats a good thing and I am all for it.  I was even a guy who liked the pick when we drafted him.  All I care about is that the Bills win, and if Zay turns into a reliable starting WR then that will be fantastic...but my honest feeling is doubtful he can shine amongst stronger competition and that will lead to Beane looking to get value in the form of a trade if Zay cant hold down a relevant spot on the depth chart.

 

Either way, thanks for all the great back and forth, enjoyed this thread a lot so far and should be fun to keep following it through the draft and camp. 

[Stank_Nasty]

5 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 You said look deeper... I saw him benefit from Allen extending a few plays a ridiculous amount of time where he was able to catch it way downfild and outrun a safety and corner to the pylon because he is super fast. 

 

didn't see even close to a complete WR. Didn’t see slants, ins, outs, curls, blocking etc. 

 

He’s proven he’s at least TJ Graham, I’ll give that. Might even get to Goodwin level or more.... but Lots more to prove.

 

I figured maybe you saw something further back in time I missed? 

This is completely false. All 3 of fosters tds came within seconds of Allen dropping back and staying in the pocket. Foster got open when he needed to on each one. 

 

Also he had 200 more yds than graham ever did and did it while Missing 3 games. 

 

Good grief. 

[SouthNYfan]

10 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I won't disagree on Beasley, on many teams he's a bona fide #1 slot WR.  I simply don't see him doing that here, and frankly, if Allen' doesn't begin throwing for more than 200 ypg, no one's going to be doing much of anything.  Point there also being that Allen didn't make use of that position much last season.  Even Jones, whose role that was, seemed to make most of his catches downfield and along the sidelines, not primarily that role.  

 

Again, much of this comes down to what extent/degree people think that Allen's passing woes fall on him rather than on everyone else on the team ranging from WRs, to TEs, to OL, to poor RB play to balance.  There seems to be a preponderance, understandably if not rationally, suggesting the latter rather than the former, which is where I sit.  IMO Allen's passing woes have a whole lot more to do with Allen than anything else.  

 

Whether that can be and will be corrected is another issue altogether, but problem recognition is the first step towards problem correction. 

 

I'm not convinced that the team is pursuing the correct methodology to correct Allen's issues, or the passing issues, however one looks at it.  One of those things being that his biggest weakness by a country mile is his short game, but the emphasis is clearly on giving him more deep tools to work with, which merely feeds the problem, not corrects it.  

 

We'll find out soon.  

 

Beasley is one of the best short guys out there.

He absolutely is the perfect thing to help Allen in the underneath.

 

I wanna see them draft hock also at te.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

This is completely false. All 3 of fosters tds came within seconds of Allen dropping back and staying in the pocket. Foster got open when he needed to on each one. 

 

Also he had 200 more yds than graham ever did and did it while Missing 3 games. 

 

Good grief. 

 

Seconds is a ridiculous amount of time.  

 

Half the posters on this board could get open 30 yards downfield in 3-4 seconds. 

 

After watching the 7 Foster highlights, I cant wait to see Brown and Allen.  It’s gonna be sick!!! 

 

Bill FO obviously realizes this as well, that’s why they went out and got brown. 

8 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Beasley is one of the best short guys out there.

He absolutely is the perfect thing to help Allen in the underneath.

 

I wanna see them draft hock also at te.

 

I hope they teach the kid to take the short stuff.  

 

He tended to opt out of the short chain movers at times 

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Seconds is a ridiculous amount of time.  

 

Half the posters on this board could get open 30 yards downfield in 3-4 seconds. 

 

After watching the 7 Foster highlights, I cant wait to see Brown and Allen.  It’s gonna be sick!!! 

 

Bill FO obviously realizes this as well, that’s why they went out and got brown. 

 

I hope they teach the kid to take the short stuff.  

 

He tended to opt out of the short chain movers at times 

Easily the thing I want to see Josh show improvement the most on........

[Stank_Nasty]

9 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Seconds is a ridiculous amount of time.  

 

Half the posters on this board could get open 30 yards downfield in 3-4 seconds. 

 

After watching the 7 Foster highlights, I cant wait to see Brown and Allen.  It’s gonna be sick!!! 

 

Bill FO obviously realizes this as well, that’s why they went out and got brown. 

 

I hope they teach the kid to take the short stuff.  

 

He tended to opt out of the short chain movers at times 

to put opposite of foster....

 

and explain to me again how allen being in the pocket and barely running around on all 3 tds is "extending plays a ridiculous amount of time"..... this is something plenty of qb's do. 

 

stop making things up to fit your argument. its silly.

 

remind me again when jones ever averaged 70+ yds a game over a 6 game stretch?

Edited March 28, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[John from Riverside]

30 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 You said look deeper... I saw him benefit from Allen extending a few plays a ridiculous amount of time where he was able to catch it way downfild and outrun a safety and corner to the pylon because he is super fast. 

 

didn't see even close to a complete WR. Didn’t see slants, ins, outs, curls, blocking etc. 

 

He’s proven he’s at least TJ Graham, I’ll give that. Might even get to Goodwin level or more.... but Lots more to prove.

 

I figured maybe you saw something further back in time I missed? 

When I say deeper I mean deeper into the limited play we have seen in the actual pro's

 

Lets keep in mind......Foster was a UDFA based on not having huge numbers in college......if he played like he did at the 2nd half of this first season he would have been a high draft pick and we have no shot at him as a UDFA.

 

When I say dig deeper.....I say dig deeper into actual pro snaps.

 

Struggled early

Got better as the season went on

There is reason to believe that with a strong work ethic Foster can have a high celing.....there is also reason to believe that improved OL play would allow Allen to take advantage of his deep speed.

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

So because it's happened before means that it's a shoe-in here?  

 

Apparently that's your point.  OK, if you think that's a wise take.  

 

Fair enough otherwise, but no matter how one looks at it, he still has miles to go to become an even average passer.  Even taking just his last 6 games he averaged 51.9% compl., lower than his first 6 games, a mere 207 yards/game passing, and with the exception of that last Miami games still sucked in the Red Zone.  

 

I can see it happening but it's hardly a shoe-in that you seem to be insisting that it is.  The leap that he has to make to hit franchise status as a passer is astronomical by NFL standards.  The odds are not favorable, again, not to say that it's impossible, but he would be in record-breaking territory if he does it based upon last season's measurables.  

 

That's regarding Allen.  As I've laid out, Jones played much better under Anderson, Barkley, and Peterman for four games.  Hardly Brees, Brady, and Rodgers there.  

 

Looking at last season and drawing any conclusions through stats or eye tests about Allen, the remaining WR's or the passing game in general for

the Buffalo Bills is just foolish.  There was so much wrong with the offense through training camp, preseason and the actual season it cannot

truly be comprehended.

 

A QB nightmare for the first half of the year, a horrible line with bad Center play, arguably the worse #1 WR play in modern NFL history, an emasculated running game,

a subpar TE group,  and a brand new OC given "bear skins and stone knives" to compete with the likes of Tom Brady is the reality.

 

All this talk about how the offense (and individual players) will fare will not be resolved until after the Bills take the field for the 1st four games of the coming season.

That's the facts and no data can prove me wrong.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

to put opposite of foster....

 

and explain to me again how allen being in the pocket and barely running around on all 3 tds is "extending plays a ridiculous amount of time"..... this is something plenty of qb's do. 

 

stop making things up to fit your argument. its silly.

 

remind me again when jones ever averaged 70+ yds a game over a 6 game stretch?

 

 ?‍♂️

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

When I say deeper I mean deeper into the limited play we have seen in the actual pro's

 

Lets keep in mind......Foster was a UDFA based on not having huge numbers in college......if he played like he did at the 2nd half of this first season he would have been a high draft pick and we have no shot at him as a UDFA.

 

When I say dig deeper.....I say dig deeper into actual pro snaps.

 

Struggled early

Got better as the season went on

There is reason to believe that with a strong work ethic Foster can have a high celing.....there is also reason to believe that improved OL play would allow Allen to take advantage of his deep speed.

 

Ive looked at him a bunch. I’m not saying there isn’t potential.  Just saying he has a long way to go to become a legit pro. He benefited from Allen’s surprising for a rook pocket poise and arm and some safeties stumbling (see Jax and Dallas TDs) passes were deeper and arrived faster than coverages are used to so he could trot into a zone hole 30 yards downfield. 

 

Zay on on the other hand gets a bad rap for a really bad rookie year. He was an hs mitigated disaster. 

 

But. His is second year he was open all the time, ran good routes, had some great catches.  He’s more of a possession guy, thus middling yardage totals. But 7 TDs and 50+ cathches and was clicking more and more towards season end with Allen. 

 

In pro offenses you need 1 guy on the field to stretch it. And the other works underneath/intermediate. 

 

Slot guy work short and middle hopefully on a LB or safety. 

 

For that reason Foster is going to need to beat Brown to get starting reps in my opinion... 

 

thats my argument. And I’m sticking to it until the depth chart or o scheme convince me I’m wrong  

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Ive looked at him a bunch. I’m not saying there isn’t potential.  Just saying he has a long way to go to become a legit pro. He benefited from Allen’s surprising for a rook pocket poise and arm and some safeties stumbling (see Jax and Dallas TDs) passes were deeper and arrived faster than coverages are used to so he could trot into a zone hole 30 yards downfield. 

 

Zay on on the other hand gets a bad rap for a really bad rookie year. He was an hs mitigated disaster. 

 

But. His is second year he was open all the time, ran good routes, had some great catches.  He’s more of a possession guy, thus middling yardage totals. But 7 TDs and 50+ cathches and was clicking more and more towards season end with Allen. 

 

In pro offenses you need 1 guy on the field to stretch it. And the other works underneath/intermediate. 

 

Slot guy work short and middle hopefully on a LB or safety. 

 

For that reason Foster is going to need to beat Brown to get starting reps in my opinion... 

 

thats my argument. And I’m sticking to it until the depth chart or o scheme convince me I’m wrong  

Can we stop with the "he made a play because another pro player fell down" thing?   It really is making you look bad

 

ALL PRO's have defenders that fall down on plays.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Can we stop with the "he made a play because another pro player fell down" thing?   It really is making you look bad

 

ALL PRO's have defenders that fall down on plays.

 

Facts do look bad when they compromise stupid narratives.

 

Like a guy with 27 catches is somehow a proven NFL commodity...   

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Facts do look bad when they compromise stupid narratives.

 

Like a guy with 27 catches is somehow a proven NFL commodity...   

Your right...the fact that NFL defenders fall down allowing well known pro receivers to make plays hurts your stupid narrative

[Teddy KGB]

13 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Ive looked at him a bunch. I’m not saying there isn’t potential.  Just saying he has a long way to go to become a legit pro. He benefited from Allen’s surprising for a rook pocket poise and arm and some safeties stumbling (see Jax and Dallas TDs) passes were deeper and arrived faster than coverages are used to so he could trot into a zone hole 30 yards downfield. 

 

Zay on on the other hand gets a bad rap for a really bad rookie year. He was an hs mitigated disaster. 

 

But. His is second year he was open all the time, ran good routes, had some great catches.  He’s more of a possession guy, thus middling yardage totals. But 7 TDs and 50+ cathches and was clicking more and more towards season end with Allen. 

 

In pro offenses you need 1 guy on the field to stretch it. And the other works underneath/intermediate. 

 

Slot guy work short and middle hopefully on a LB or safety. 

 

For that reason Foster is going to need to beat Brown to get starting reps in my opinion... 

 

thats my argument. And I’m sticking to it until the depth chart or o scheme convince me I’m wrong  

 

Yikes ?.    Don’t you still ride for Tyrod too ? 

[Cripple Creek]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

My point is.....Allen was drafted based off the potential of what he could become

This is true of every player drafted EVARRRR.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Funny I never thought this thread would go more than a few pages.  Just want to say thanks to everyone who chimed in on both sides and continued on in mostly good discussion on either side.

 

When I started this thread, it was never meant to be some arrogant guarantee and if you read my OP I said this was my gut feeling based on what I believe is going to be added to the WR room and my belief in whether Zay could hold his own against the increased competition.  So far Beane has done everything I expected him to do, so all its done is further my belief Zay is in danger of not being on this roster come week 1.

 

I have no issue with this being a "wrong gut feeling", no ego in being right about this.  Its just how I honestly felt based on what I see from Zay and how I expected to see Beane add competition.  If Zay rises to the top, thats a good thing and I am all for it.  I was even a guy who liked the pick when we drafted him.  All I care about is that the Bills win, and if Zay turns into a reliable starting WR then that will be fantastic...but my honest feeling is doubtful he can shine amongst stronger competition and that will lead to Beane looking to get value in the form of a trade if Zay cant hold down a relevant spot on the depth chart.

 

Either way, thanks for all the great back and forth, enjoyed this thread a lot so far and should be fun to keep following it through the draft and camp. 

 

 

nicely done 'Dawg......hope the Zay kid heeds the same warning that the Foster kid got from McDermott and reacts the same way....he DEFINITELY better be looking over his shoulder about some valid competition on his heels....

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Ive looked at him a bunch. I’m not saying there isn’t potential.  Just saying he has a long way to go to become a legit pro. He benefited from Allen’s surprising for a rook pocket poise and arm and some safeties stumbling (see Jax and Dallas TDs) passes were deeper and arrived faster than coverages are used to so he could trot into a zone hole 30 yards downfield. 

 

Zay on on the other hand gets a bad rap for a really bad rookie year. He was an hs mitigated disaster. 

 

But. His is second year he was open all the time, ran good routes, had some great catches.  He’s more of a possession guy, thus middling yardage totals. But 7 TDs and 50+ cathches and was clicking more and more towards season end with Allen. 

 

In pro offenses you need 1 guy on the field to stretch it. And the other works underneath/intermediate. 

 

Slot guy work short and middle hopefully on a LB or safety. 

 

For that reason Foster is going to need to beat Brown to get starting reps in my opinion... 

 

thats my argument. And I’m sticking to it until the depth chart or o scheme convince me I’m wrong  

 

What film of Zay are you watching to make these conclusions?  He is all over the drop video that is 5 min long and thats just from 2018.  His catch rate was terrible in 2018.  He bobbled several of his caught passes too and made them look hard.  He was never getting open all the time.  In weeks 14, 15, and 16 he was physically dominated by his opposing CB as bad as I have ever seen in an NFL game.  He had 10 games with under 40 yards, and would have had 11 if not for a free TD in the final min NE gave him where they didnt cover him cuz game was over.  

 

I have no issue for those who still have positive hope for Zay, but everything you just wrote is just factually inaccurate.  He struggled all year beating press coverage and is a sloppy route runner.  He had several moments to come up big for the Bills and failed which heavily contributed to multiple losses.  He wasn't the only one, but he certainly was part of the problem.   

 

His "bad rap" has nothing to do with his rookie year.  He got a clean slate in year 2...he just still was not good in any phase of the game in year 2.  People say well his catch rate greatly improved...no it didnt.  It went from unfit to even play in the NFL in year 1, to not good enough in year 2.  Yes that is an improvement, but still was not good for a guy whose only key asset coming out of college was supposed to be his hands.  

 

For every "great" catch he made, he had tons of bad plays that were either drops, not getting open, or just getting physically dominated by the cornerback.  

 

And in pro offenses, you do not need what you just said.  It can be done many ways.  Steelers have 2 deep threat outside guys and their TE's and RB work the middle.  Chiefs brought in Watkins to pair with Hill to be two deep threats while Kecle and the RB's work the middle.  Rams use a deep guy mixed with some good intermediate and short guys in Wood, Kupp and the TE.  Patriots use mostly short to intermediate guys and havent used many deep threat guys, even traded Cooks after 1 year.  

 

It can be done many ways, and it depends on your system and QB.  Zay unfortunately has not been good as a deep guy, intermediate guy, or short guy YET.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

54 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What film of Zay are you watching to make these conclusions?  He is all over the drop video that is 5 min long and thats just from 2018.  His catch rate was terrible in 2018.  He bobbled several of his caught passes too and made them look hard.  He was never getting open all the time.  In weeks 14, 15, and 16 he was physically dominated by his opposing CB as bad as I have ever seen in an NFL game.  He had 10 games with under 40 yards, and would have had 11 if not for a free TD in the final min NE gave him where they didnt cover him cuz game was over.  

 

I have no issue for those who still have positive hope for Zay, but everything you just wrote is just factually inaccurate.  He struggled all year beating press coverage and is a sloppy route runner.  He had several moments to come up big for the Bills and failed which heavily contributed to multiple losses.  He wasn't the only one, but he certainly was part of the problem.   

 

His "bad rap" has nothing to do with his rookie year.  He got a clean slate in year 2...he just still was not good in any phase of the game in year 2.  People say well his catch rate greatly improved...no it didnt.  It went from unfit to even play in the NFL in year 1, to not good enough in year 2.  Yes that is an improvement, but still was not good for a guy whose only key asset coming out of college was supposed to be his hands.  

 

For every "great" catch he made, he had tons of bad plays that were either drops, not getting open, or just getting physically dominated by the cornerback.  

 

And in pro offenses, you do not need what you just said.  It can be done many ways.  Steelers have 2 deep threat outside guys and their TE's and RB work the middle.  Chiefs brought in Watkins to pair with Hill to be two deep threats while Kecle and the RB's work the middle.  Rams use a deep guy mixed with some good intermediate and short guys in Wood, Kupp and the TE.  Patriots use mostly short to intermediate guys and havent used many deep threat guys, even traded Cooks after 1 year.  

 

It can be done many ways, and it depends on your system and QB.  Zay unfortunately has not been good as a deep guy, intermediate guy, or short guy YET.  

 

They made a 5 minute video dominated by Zays 5 drops? 

 

Terrible catch rate? Which was exactly? 

 

Sammy the deep threat in kc? 

 

Assuming you mean JuJu as a deep threat?

 

Gems here... just awesome 

 

Come find when they publish the opening day roster after you’re done consoling yourself. 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood
Lol- on me... I just realized this is Crayonz trolling...

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

They made a 5 minute video dominated by Zays 5 drops? 

 

Terrible catch rate? Which was exactly? 

 

Sammy the deep threat in kc? 

 

Assuming you mean JuJu as a deep threat?

 

Gems here... just awesome 

 

Come find when they publish the opening day roster after you’re done consoling yourself. 

 

1. I do not care if my gut feeling is right or wrong.  Said many times, I never made some guarantee, just shared how I felt about the situation.  If I am wrong, then I am wrong, big deal.  All I care about is the Bills being the best team it can be, if that proves to include Zay then great I will be cheering hard for him.  Nothing against him just because I doubt his ability to rise to the occasion against better competition.
2. You don't know Zay's catch rate?  Yet you are making claims of his play?  I could tell you, but you can do your own homework.  Hint:  It was not good.
3. Are you suggesting Sammy was paid $16M a year to be a slot WR or possession guy?  They signed him as a big play guy for Mahomes to compliment Hill.  Your opinion of Sammy is irrelevant, KC's $16M check says otherwise and so did Reid when he signed him.
4. And yes, JuJu is an outside WR...guess you didnt watch him play either or seen his career average of 14 ypc
5. Thank you, they are gems, thanks for noticing.  Its nice to be appreciated  ?

I wont be finding anyone on opening day roster release.  I could care less of the outcome and wont be chasing anyone down to be consoled or gloat.  Its a discussion on how I feel things may play out and how others see it themselves.  You don't see me running around saying "I will bet you" or "put your money where your mouth is" crap some others do here all the time.  Sometimes its just ok to have a discussion without having a war to be right.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

1. I do not care if my gut feeling is right or wrong.  Said many times, I never made some guarantee, just shared how I felt about the situation.  If I am wrong, then I am wrong, big deal.  All I care about is the Bills being the best team it can be, if that proves to include Zay then great I will be cheering hard for him.  Nothing against him just because I doubt his ability to rise to the occasion against better competition.
2. You don't know Zay's catch rate?  Yet you are making claims of his play?  I could tell you, but you can do your own homework.  Hint:  It was not good.
3. Are you suggesting Sammy was paid $16M a year to be a slot WR or possession guy?  They signed him as a big play guy for Mahomes to compliment Hill.  Your opinion of Sammy is irrelevant, KC's $16M check says otherwise and so did Reid when he signed him.
4. And yes, JuJu is an outside WR...guess you didnt watch him play either or seen his career average of 14 ypc
5. Thank you, they are gems, thanks for noticing.  Its nice to be appreciated  ?

I wont be finding anyone on opening day roster release.  I could care less of the outcome and wont be chasing anyone down to be consoled or gloat.  Its a discussion on how I feel things may play out and how others see it themselves.  You don't see me running around saying "I will bet you" or "put your money where your mouth is" crap some others do here all the time.  Sometimes its just ok to have a discussion without having a war to be right.  

 

All good man but your post title doesn’t quite square with the highlighted above.

 

i likewise would love to both see Zay and Foster thrive. I belive the former is further ahead of the later at this time. 

 

Btw I watch tons of football. Sammy ran mostly intermediate routes  and juju did most of his damage from the slot. 

 

Also Foster and Zays catch rate were only 5% different with dramically different sample size and Zay drawing the top corner. 

 

if either or both is a sold WR we both win, because the bills got better 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Ronin]

4 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Beasley is one of the best short guys out there.

He absolutely is the perfect thing to help Allen in the underneath.

 

I wanna see them draft hock also at te.

 

Point is tho that Allen doesn't see the area of the field where slot receivers typically are located on routes.  So Beasley will go underutilized unless Allen significantly tweaks his game.  

 

I'm not big on TEs early, they don't often pan out.  Either way, and again, TE isn't a position that Allen favored last season.  

 

I'll use his last six games only, but in those last six games the TEs had only 17 targets, 10 catches, and 134 yards from the TEs, collectively.  That's an average of 3 targets, not even 2 catches, and about 22 yards-per-game.  

 

I'm firmly convinced that Allen needs at least two top-notch OL-men from this draft, meaning that our 1st and either 2nd or 3rd in a deep draft for linemen should be used on them.  

 

Allen needs to learn to scan the entire field, locate the open receivers, take his time, etc.  That's a tall order given where he is right now.  TEs and WRs really aren't going to help calm him down like that nearly as much as OL-men are.  Otherwise we're in the same spot as last season and he won't progress.  I'm not of the mind that he's going to magically progress simply because he's in his second season.  They need to specifically focus on what his primary issue is, and right now it's that he doesn't see the entire field. 

 

As I've said, I'm not sure how one "coaches that in," but having him settle down and take more time than the average QB is allotted sounds like a good start to me, the only start.  

[Alphadawg7]

27 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

All good man but your post title doesn’t quite square with the highlighted above.

 

i likewise would love to both see Zay and Foster thrive. I belive the former is further ahead of the later at this time. 

 

Btw I watch tons of football. Sammy ran mostly intermediate routes  and juju did most of his damage from the slot. 

 

Also Foster and Zays catch rate were only 5% different with dramically different sample size and Zay drawing the top corner. 

 

if either or both is a sold WR we both win, because the bills got better 

 

Well thats why people need to read the posts, not thread titles

 

All good like you said, all I care about is Bills wins and Josh's development.  At the end of the day, our #1 WR is likely not currently on our roster as I still feel a high draft pick will be invested this year in a WR to potentially be that complete WR for Josh for the next decade...well at least until their rookie contracts end lol

[SouthNYfan]

4 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Point is tho that Allen doesn't see the area of the field where slot receivers typically are located on routes.  So Beasley will go underutilized unless Allen significantly tweaks his game.  

 

I'm not big on TEs early, they don't often pan out.  Either way, and again, TE isn't a position that Allen favored last season.  

 

I'll use his last six games only, but in those last six games the TEs had only 17 targets, 10 catches, and 134 yards from the TEs, collectively.  That's an average of 3 targets, not even 2 catches, and about 22 yards-per-game.  

 

I'm firmly convinced that Allen needs at least two top-notch OL-men from this draft, meaning that our 1st and either 2nd or 3rd in a deep draft for linemen should be used on them.  

 

Allen needs to learn to scan the entire field, locate the open receivers, take his time, etc.  That's a tall order given where he is right now.  TEs and WRs really aren't going to help calm him down like that nearly as much as OL-men are.  Otherwise we're in the same spot as last season and he won't progress.  I'm not of the mind that he's going to magically progress simply because he's in his second season.  They need to specifically focus on what his primary issue is, and right now it's that he doesn't see the entire field. 

 

As I've said, I'm not sure how one "coaches that in," but having him settle down and take more time than the average QB is allotted sounds like a good start to me, the only start.  

 

Well I don't disagree that he needs to work on scanning underneath, let's also factor in that his underneath targets (slot, and te) were complete garbage last year.

It's very hard to determine how much of it was him not reading underneath vs not trusting those who were underneath to receive, leading to him being reluctant to when throw to them.

Let's also factor in that hock is a ridiculous blocker as well as receiver, so having a te who blocks that well also improves the oline.

[Ronin]

11 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Well I don't disagree that he needs to work on scanning underneath, let's also factor in that his underneath targets (slot, and te) were complete garbage last year.

It's very hard to determine how much of it was him not reading underneath vs not trusting those who were underneath to receive, leading to him being reluctant to when throw to them.

Let's also factor in that hock is a ridiculous blocker as well as receiver, so having a te who blocks that well also improves the oline.

 

Well, the thing is that "garbage" is one thing, and Clay isn't "garbage" per se and Croom also looked decent, but how much of that "garbage-ness" should have been attributed to Allen.  

 

I'm A, not sure that Hockenson's receiving regimen is going to help Allen all that much initially, and if he even owns up to such a draft status, B, it's still not the same as a good OT in that regard in terms of blocking, and C, TEs are one of those positions that high draft picks rarely turn out as their "supposed to."  Recent ones include highly touted TEs like Ebron, Eifert, Pettigrew, Howard, all the highest drafted TEs over the past decade and all among the first 21  picks.  Ebron finally broke out last season, five years in.  Otherwise, not matching draft status among them.  A good blocking TE can be had on day-3.  

 

Same with trading up for a WR, a historically horrible decision.  

 

Either way, the tendency is to blame everyone & everything but Allen, but IMO drafting an TE with our 9th overall is far from making optimal use of the pick to actually help Allen. 

 

Remember, this has to be a major mental effort to correct him. They've gotta sit his arse down and say, Listen, you need to settle down, relax, scan the field (pre and post snap), and start to utilize all of your options.  If you don't do that, then you're not long for this league.  

 

That's the tough discussion right there.  But in doing that he'll need optimal help in protection, notably more so than already franchise QBs and even average QBs.  

 

That's how I see it if Allen's going to work out.  Sure, maybe he can do that without the protection as such, but as I've said, if he does it'll be some seriously historically record breaking territory.  I'm not sure that Allen's gonna do that given where he is right now and given that he's never been a good reader of defenses.  

 

It's an uphill task/order as it is.  

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Well, the thing is that "garbage" is one thing, and Clay isn't "garbage" per se and Croom also looked decent, but how much of that "garbage-ness" should have been attributed to Allen.  

 

I'm A, not sure that Hockenson's receiving regimen is going to help Allen all that much initially, and if he even owns up to such a draft status, B, it's still not the same as a good OT in that regard in terms of blocking, and C, TEs are one of those positions that high draft picks rarely turn out as their "supposed to."  Recent ones include highly touted TEs like Ebron, Eifert, Pettigrew, Howard, all the highest drafted TEs over the past decade and all among the first 21  picks.  Ebron finally broke out last season, five years in.  Otherwise, not matching draft status among them.  A good blocking TE can be had on day-3.  

 

Same with trading up for a WR, a historically horrible decision.  

 

Either way, the tendency is to blame everyone & everything but Allen, but IMO drafting an TE with our 9th overall is far from making optimal use of the pick to actually help Allen. 

 

Remember, this has to be a major mental effort to correct him. They've gotta sit his arse down and say, Listen, you need to settle down, relax, scan the field (pre and post snap), and start to utilize all of your options.  If you don't do that, then you're not long for this league.  

 

That's the tough discussion right there.  But in doing that he'll need optimal help in protection, notably more so than already franchise QBs and even average QBs.  

 

That's how I see it if Allen's going to work out.  Sure, maybe he can do that without the protection as such, but as I've said, if he does it'll be some seriously historically record breaking territory.  I'm not sure that Allen's gonna do that given where he is right now and given that he's never been a good reader of defenses.  

 

It's an uphill task/order as it is.  

 

Yeah I think you and I are on the same page, just slightly on different sides of it.

We both agree that it's on Allen and on the weapons (or lack of) that he was given.

Im more on the lack of weapons side, you're more on the Allen being more responsible for it.

I think we are closer on the topic than it seems, and either way both his weapons and Allen himself need to be improved.

They have improved the weapons, at least on paper, and the rest is on Allen now either way.

 

I was watching a video on him last month, and one of the biggest things they wanted him to improve on, like we both said, is taking that 80% completion 5-7 yard underneath throw on second down, setting up a third and 3-5yrds, instead of trying to make that 50/50 bullet at 12-15+ yards.

 

 

Clay is garbage by the way.

Not gonna change my mind on that.

??

 

[Captain Hindsight]

I was able to flip Zay for a first rounder in Madden last night, so clearly the trade market is there

[Ronin]

7 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Yeah I think you and I are on the same page, just slightly on different sides of it.

We both agree that it's on Allen and on the weapons (or lack of) that he was given.

Im more on the lack of weapons side, you're more on the Allen being more responsible for it.

I think we are closer on the topic than it seems, and either way both his weapons and Allen himself need to be improved.

They have improved the weapons, at least on paper, and the rest is on Allen now either way.

 

I was watching a video on him last month, and one of the biggest things they wanted him to improve on, like we both said, is taking that 80% completion 5-7 yard underneath throw on second down, setting up a third and 3-5yrds, instead of trying to make that 50/50 bullet at 12-15+ yards.

 

 

Clay is garbage by the way.

Not gonna change my mind on that.

??

 

 

You'll get little argument from me on Clay, most overrated TE we've had in years.

 

BUT, he's not nearly as bad as the 2.3 catches/game he had with Allen throwing.  Hell, he averaged 3.8 catches/game with Taylor and whom, Fitz?

 

Everyone's receiving numbers went down with Allen on the field.

 

As exciting as Allen was to watch, and this isn't going to float well here, but it wasn't team ball.  He tried to be a one man show.  Last time a QB like that became a franchise QB was never, at least not in the modern era.

Edited March 29, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[SouthNYfan]

25 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

You'll get little argument from me on Clay, most overrated TE we've had in years.

 

BUT, he's not nearly as bad as the 2.3 catches/game he had with Allen throwing.  Hell, he averaged 3.8 catches/game with Taylor and whom, Fitz?

 

Everyone's receiving numbers went down with Allen on the field.

 

As exciting as Allen was to watch, and this isn't going to float well here, but it wasn't team ball.  He tried to be a one man show.  Last time a QB like that became a franchise QB was never, at least not in the modern era.

 

I dunno cam is a pretty decent one man show

Mvp and a Superbowl trip ?