How difficult will it be to get back in 2018?

[dollars 2 donuts]

I know it seems all about personnel today, but I can't help but think about this, as well.

 

if the Bills (and AFC, generally) can't finally get relief as a result of drop off from Brady, Ben and Rivers it is going to get crowded near the top 6.

 

Patriots - 41 next year...please be going on 50 at that point, but unlikely.

Dolphins - would Tannehill have made a difference?  2-0 against us in 2016.  We lucked out with that injury.

Jets - projected 90 million in cap space and they draft high...they will either draft or buy a stud qb in 2018

 

Steelers - again, frustrating how these aging qbs aren't really aging.

Ravens - one play away from the streak being 18 years.

Cincy - they are a better team than the way they played this year, but we may have been helped by the re-upping of Marvin...what changes?

Browns - no threat yet, but they will be getting one of the best, if not the best, qb in the draft.

 

Jags - hate Marrone, but they are one QB away from being damn good and a dominating team.

Tenn - This I believe is the paper tiger. I like Marriota, but saving Mularkey's job helps us and others.  I believe they are out in 2018.

Texans - They frighten me.  I wanted Watson and before he got hurt you are kidding yourself if you don't think they may have laid claim to our playoff spot.

Colts - aren't that good even with Luck...but at least they'll have him this year.

 

KC - Mahommes comes into his own in 2018?

Chargers- Rivers get old and go away, please.

Raiders - 12-4 in 16 and a hiccup in 2017.  Do you really think Chucky won't have them competing?

Broncos - they'll get one of the top 3 qbs in the 2018 draft.

 

Before we knew the Sabres were a tire fire I would argue with friends who thought they would challenge for the playoffs by saying there were definitely at least 9 Eastern teams better than the Sabres.

 

Are there 10 AFC teams definitely worse than the Bills in 2018?  

 

I hope so, but I'm not sure.

 

Teams that will be the biggest obstacles in 2018: Texans, Ravens, Raiders, Dolphins, and maybe the Colts.

 

Thank you for ending the drought, Bills.  Please do what you can to start a playoff streak next December.

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[Max Fischer]

I agree. Next year won’t be any easier and the Bills will need to take yet another leap to make the playoffs.  The good news: all those teams look at breakdown the same way and likely shutter to think how much Buffalo can improve with a new QB, seasoned rookies and all the draft picks.  

[zevo]

I think it will be a couple years before we really have a chance again

[PIZ]

Get a QB, pass rush, linebacker, and a true compliment to Shady and we are as good as anyone.

[entropyrules]

agree......I was chatting with my brother after the game and thought they will probably take a slight step back (6-10 or 7-9) next year and then battling for a playoff spot in 2019,

 

I am torn with this coaching staff.. they really got a lot out of a fairly mediocre squad of players. Then they have those horrible in game decisions which makes me think they aren't taking this team very far into the playoffs even if they slip in each year as a wild card.

 

Its really sheer torture being a Bills or Sabres fan

[John in Jax]

14 minutes ago, entropyrules said:

Its really sheer torture being a Bills or Sabres fan

Truer words have never, ever been written!

[PolishDave]

It depends on how they manage the draft this year and free agency.

 

And it depends on what changes (if any) are made on the offensive coaching staff.

 

With the right changes and right upgrades, this team could potentially win the AFC East.

 

With the wrong moves, they could become a 2-14 team.

[Woodman19]

Depends on the offseason, while we may have to change big pieces in the offense I could also see us drastically improve the defense to offset it if we add a good coverage LB and pass rush.

[Big Turk]

Tannehill usually played terrible against the Bills save for last year under Rex

[mjt328]

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years.  I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it.  I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott.  We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt.

 

It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018.  If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year.

 

Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason.  We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster.  The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott.  While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding.  They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison.  And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time.  They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft.  And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

Edited January 8, 2018 by mjt328

[richardb1952]

18 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years.  I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it.  I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott.  We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt.

 

It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018.  If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year.

 

Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason.  We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster.  The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott.  While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding.  They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison.  And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time.  They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft.  And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

 

Totally agree.  Year 2 of "The Process" needs to make the most of FA and the draft to continue to improve the roster.  While I liked the chemistry of this current team, I also believe they will upgrade from 7 - 10 positions on this roster.  I believe that some of the conservatism in McDermotts in game decision making had a lot to do with the limitations of the current roster.  I also believe it is hard to hit on 7 - 10 additions.  Let's hope that 2018 draft is as profitable as was the 2017 draft class.  Bills might not make the playoffs next year and actually have a better roster.

[Dorkington]

We got A LOT of lucky bounces this year. We'll need to shore up our LB corps, and find a more talented QB. (this is assuming we keep our secondary in tact) On the coaching front, we need a better offensive play designer/coordinator imo. 

[GunnerBill]

I suspect next year will see a small step back with a rookie QB.  I can see a 7-9, 8-8 type season but I think we will be in with a chance on a slightly easier schedule.  I expect us to be in that same 7 to 9 win range in 2018. But with a 2nd year QB in 2019 and two years of solid drafts and FAs around him and all the dead money from Dareus and the like off the books I expect us to be a division winner.  

[Mango]

37 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years.  I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it.  I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott.  We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt.

 

It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018.  If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year.

 

Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason.  We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster.  The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott.  While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding.  They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison.  And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time.  They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft.  And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

 

 

Agreed. We made a few moves this year that still haven’t been an improvement. RG, RB2, and WR are all moves that we made moves in with zero or negative improvement. 

 

Its not lost, but if those types of moves continue, 6 wins is right in our wheel house. Not that we weren’t deserving, but we did also get bounces Bills fans are not accustomed to. 

 

IMO we need to hit much more than we miss in the draft this year to just sustain what we did this year. 

[hondo in seattle]

I'm not confident about next year.  Neither our offensive nor defensive rosters are loaded with young talent.   Our O and D statistics were underwhelming.   The only stat that looked good was turnover differential and turnovers can be fickle.

 

But I don't know how good Beane is.  Maybe  he'll strike gold in the draft and again in free agency.  

[Jerome007]

It'll be very hard. A lot depends on the draft picks and trades/signings, on how Father Time affects some of the core group, etc. A LOT of unknowns going into year. Nobody knows with any certainty.

 

Last year the Bills were a few plays from being playoff bound with Rex Ryan! Some made field goals and tackles, coach challenges, and boom. An really, many years of that drought could have been playoff years if not for a few plays. The difference between winning and losing is often so thin that I do laugh at the "expert predictions".  Sure none expect the Browns to be 12-4 next year or the Patriots to go 3-13. But otherwise yes 6-10 or 10-6 can be had by a few select plays.

 

I had posted this paragraph before, and I reposted it, as NFL fans in general need a slap in the face sometimes. Only 4 of last year's 12 playoff teams rejoined the dance this year. A lot of teams can go from 6-10 to 10-6, or 15-1 to 6-10... I'm soooooooo glad the drought is over but now prepare for the "longest time without a playoff win" media rambling.

[Chuck Schick]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years.  I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it.  I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott.  We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt.

 

It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018.  If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year.

 

Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason.  We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster.  The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott.  While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding.  They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison.  And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time.  They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft.  And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

Welcome to the new NFL.   Loading up with big name players is out, and finding competent lower-cost players that fit specific roles is in.

If you can't give McDermott credit for doing a pretty damn good job of that in Year 1, I don't know what to tell you.  

 

As for the "lucky bounces" thing.....can you tell me any sport you've played from high school on where "luck" actually determined the winner of a game?   For me, the better team is going to end up winning 99 times out 100.  A play or two here and there does not win games despite what the highlight shows make it seem.  

 

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Chuck Schick

[corta765]

OP you make some really good points and this was well thought out. That said remember the Bills plan is if they score 24 pts they believe their defense can keep the opposing team under that. It's very similar to what Minnesota is doing and if you look at the Vikings I doubt you'd say Case Keenum is better then a host of the teams they've beaten this year but here we are. So it's very hard in general to tell next year because things change so much.

 

I think the AFCE in general is going to be a buzz saw for all of the teams even NE just because of how everyone is adding pieces across the board.

 

If Buffalo goes 6-2 again at home they will be in the playoff race until the end again, that may be the biggest thing really is to defend the dirt as McD says.

[QCity]

I think those with tempered expectations for next year are correct. The rebuild is still in its infancy and doesn't really begin until the 2018 draft. In fact, there are still major pieces on this roster that will likely be shed.

[Tatonka68]

Bills cast out Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Darby, Ragland, Dareus among others and made the playoffs with less talent. A strong off season signing good free agents and a strong draft then it is possible. The Bills are as good as any one else. The old Bills are DEAD, trust "the process". The arrow is pointing up.

[MAJBobby]

If they take a step back but you have confidence in the nee QB because he flashed. Consider it a success 

[chris heff]

I’m optimistic, the coaching staff got more out of this squad than most expected. The Bills have a bunch of draft picks, cap space and owners willing to spend money. The hardest piece is obvious, QB, need to draft one and get a vet. Since the QB is more than likely not currently on the team a change at offensive coordinator is not that big a deal. If you can upgrade do it. QB aside the offense needs WR upgrade a healthy Benjamin will help. I don’t know what to make of Mathews, liked him in college and wanted Bills to draft him. He had some good years with Eagles in a bad situation. O line needs to get younger. All the RB should go but McCoy.

 

Need to get a pass rush. I think in today’s NFL and based on the fact that Bills success goes through Brady, interior D lineman are the key. They need linebackers the only guy I keep is Milano. 

 

If they accomplish 60% of this I think they could be good.

[Chuck Wagon]

Next year's road schedule could be brutal

 

@ Texans with a healthy Watson

@ Colts with a potentially healthy Luck

@ Packers

@ Vikings

@ Ravens 

[Tatonka68]

Sign free agents Star Lotulelei DT and Andrew Norwell G and EJ Gaines CB.

draft 1st round picks Mason Rudolph QB and James Washington II WR both from Oklahoma st. 4 years of chemistry together.

draft 2nd round picks Micah Kizer LB and Martinez Rankin OT.

draft 3rd round pick Nick Chubb RB

 

PLAYOFFS!

 

[BigPappy]

1 hour ago, richardb1952 said:

 

Totally agree.  Year 2 of "The Process" needs to make the most of FA and the draft to continue to improve the roster.  While I liked the chemistry of this current team, I also believe they will upgrade from 7 - 10 positions on this roster.  I believe that some of the conservatism in McDermotts in game decision making had a lot to do with the limitations of the current roster.  I also believe it is hard to hit on 7 - 10 additions.  Let's hope that 2018 draft is as profitable as was the 2017 draft class.  Bills might not make the playoffs next year and actually have a better roster.

 

 I think your statement here is the key when it came to some of the game decisions. Especially when it came to Dennison. I agree with your draft assessment as well. If we can pick up a top FA qb, we can still grab a moderately high pick QB to watch and learn for a few years, resign Benjamin, add a WR in the draft (maybe 2nd 1st rounder), a good pass rusher and a top notch linebacker we can definitely still compete next year. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

We'll see how the offseason plays out, but I wouldn't be surprised if we take a step back next year in the W/L column. Lots of turnover coming in the next 6 months.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

With the exception of possibly starting Peterman next year it is hard to imagine worse production from the QB position next year no matter who we go with as a rookie or free agent pick up. That alone could be a huge boost. 

 

But there are some red flags. Our success this year was all about Hauschka and timely turnovers from the secondary. Both could very easily reverse back to the mean in 2018. And if that happens we will need to greatly improve out 26th ranked offense and 21st ranked defense.

[Ponch]

I know I my get roasted for this being my 1st post, but with all due respect, most comments on this thread, drip of the loser mentality that so many Bills fans possess. I can understand why, 17 years of being in an abusive relationship can create all kinds of PTSD. However, this was step #1 of the said “Process” .. getting to the playoffs was really a bonus... changing the culture and starting to clean house of those that didn’t fit or buy in was the crucial beginning. Now step #2 ...continue building what’s been started... they have some great draft collateral and $$ for FA’s ... should be fun moving forward. I choose to feel encouraged from where the Bills are. Of course all have their right to feel as they do. Enjoy the ride, my friends! 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Ponch

[JAMIEBUF12]

I think it is just like Kyle williams stated.This is a start..The reason I agree with this is because this is not the same old Bills.The whole entire front office was changed.Bottom  line these are not Ralph Wilson’s Bills anymore.There were whispers that last years draft resembled Carolina’s draft board...Mcdermott kept this team competitive in his first season which to me was really a evauluate what you have season to go forward(trust the process) . I am positive Mcbeane and Mcdermott will come up with a plan to fix the run defense and get decent qb play..What I would like to see in the “process” is a team identity.If it is defensive minded ok if it is smash mouth so be it and if it ends up dwarfing into a passing team(like steelers from running rep to passing so be it...Bills made the playoffs with a first year coach and general manager..I would like to think they are not just building for 2018 playoffs,but a long term power house super bowl winning team...GO BILLS!!!!

[Mark Vader]

Next season will be difficult, but not impossible.

 

There is more likely going to be a lot of turnover on the roster. After all, the Bills signed a bunch of players to 1 year deals, and more likely, most of them will not be back.

 

How the Bills approach free agency and the draft will be vital, of course. However, right now the more important issue to me is, will they keep Dennison as offensive coordinator?

 

Once that is settled, the we can get to roster changes. I would love to have Kyle back, because he is a team leader and he can still play. 

I feel that we must re-sign E.J. Gaines, even if we have to overspend. I'd welcome back Jordan Matthews, but at a reasonable price.

 

Then there's the all important question of what to do at Quarterback. I think it is safe to say that Tyrod is finished here. The Bills must draft a QB next year, and preferably in the first round. They should also get another QB in free agency, because I can not picture Peterman being next year's starter.

 

We desperately need to get good RB depth. Shady said that he can play until he's 33, and I think we should let him. The guy is a star, and I have yet to see his production greatly drop off. That said, we need much better depth at this position to help out.

 

As for the offensive line, I believe that we need more help at Guard than we do at Tackle. Jordan Mills is nothing special, but he is adequate. The big question is, are we finished with Cordy Glenn?

 

Wide Receiver needs upgrading, but I don't think we should use a high draft pick on one. If we re-sign Matthews, then the idea of having him paired with Benjamin sounds very exciting. I feel that Zay can rebound. Which leaves us with needing a deep threat, unless we decide to keep Thompson.

 

The Tight End position appears to be fine. Unless they decide to do something about Clay's big contract.

 

On the defensive side, it is obvious that DT & LB are the primary needs, and this is where I think we will see major positional moves in free agency and the draft. The secondary is set and just needs depth.

 

There is a lot to be done this off season, and I think that McDermott and Beane will be up to the task. Ending the drought was a major step forward for this new regime, and I think they are capable of keeping the Bills moving forward.

 

Next season will not be easy, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up in the playoffs again.

[HappyDays]

Your outlook is so pessimistic you're trying to make the Browns seem like a threat. Let's just wait and see. Trying to judge next year's schedule is dumb in August, let alone in January before the draft and free agency.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 viable QB.  /end thread 

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, Chuck Schick said:

Welcome to the new NFL.   Loading up with big name players is out, and finding competent lower-cost players that fit specific roles is in.

If you can't give McDermott credit for doing a pretty damn good job of that in Year 1, I don't know what to tell you.  

 

As for the "lucky bounces" thing.....can you tell me any sport you've played from high school on where "luck" actually determined the winner of a game?   For me, the better team is going to end up winning 99 times out 100.  A play or two here and there does not win games despite what the highlight shows make it seem.  

 

 

 

It's not about "not giving McDermott credit."  Let's just look at reality.

 

The AFC had three key QBs go down with season-ending injuries:  Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill

Houston and Miami were both playoff teams in 2016, while the Colts finished 8-8.  Those injuries realistically took three Wild Card contenders off the table.

Not to mention, three of our nine wins came against those teams with backup QBs.

 

Despite this, we still needed a 4th-12 miracle from another team to make the playoffs.

 

 

Don't get me wrong.  I'm absolutely thrilled we made the playoffs, and ended the drought.  McDermott deserves tons of credit for getting maximum production out of a roster, who most people figured had a 7 win ceiling.  The team took a really bad mid-season slide, and he got them back on track mentally.  That was a huge deal. 

 

But realistically, a 9-7 record is not going to get it done most years.  And realistically, you can't depend on tie-breakers to reach the postseason.  And realistically, three starting QBs (all on playoff contenders) are not going to suffer season-ending injuries at the same frequency.  

 

The team MUST get better, or we can't expect this to happen again.

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

1.  how is Andy Dalton’s arm in 2018 will be key.

 

2.  Will the afc as a whole rebound in 2018?

 

buffalo has been pretty average and consistent with Taylor as QB 

 

8, 7, 8 regular season wins.  If he were to return it would be I’d say be between 7 and 9 wins and then it’s just a question

 

do the Broncos, Raiders, Texans, Dolphins ...etc rebound at all to push those wild card records to 10 or even 11 wins.

[hemma]

A QB, healthy WRs + 4 new players (2 pass rushers) on the front 7.

We get that, we go back.

[dollars 2 donuts]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Your outlook is so pessimistic you're trying to make the Browns seem like a threat. Let's just wait and see. Trying to judge next year's schedule is dumb in August, let alone in January before the draft and free agency.

 

 

I I know it may seem that way, HD, but I really didn't say anything of the sort.

 

i did say teams that were worse last year are going to be better.

Edited January 9, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[reddogblitz]

13 hours ago, zevo said:

I think it will be a couple years before we really have a chance again

 

Thats what everyone said this time last year.

[Adam727]

The Bills lucked into a playoff spot this year with a few lucky bounces in an unusually weak AFC where the Colts/Texans both lost their starting QBs early in the year.  I don't see them making it back to the playoffs in 2018, which is fine with me.  I think 2018 should be a rebuilding year.  We need a new QB and a LOT of new talent on both sides of the ball after all the big departures this year.  Next year should be all about laying the foundation for building an AFCE dynasty to replace the Pats once Brady retires..  Unless it's for a QB or a DT I really hope the Bills don't spend big in FA this year and i wouldn't mind seeing them trade back in the draft again to get an extra #1 for 2019...

 

 

 

 

[RiotAct]

13 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

Agreed. We made a few moves this year that still haven’t been an improvement. RG, RB2, and WR are all moves that we made moves in with zero or negative improvement. 

Don’t forget D-Line.

[BuffaloRush]

16 hours ago, zevo said:

I think it will be a couple years before we really have a chance again

I completely disagree.  If you mean a couple years before we have a realistic shot at a Super Bowl, then yeah I'll give that to you.  

 

But take a look at the AFC - it was fairly wide open this year and only 2 teams really stood out.  There's an excellent chance that the Bills defense is going to get better.  They'll likely find upgrades at DT and LB which will help quite a bit.  As we've seen this year - a good defense will keep you close in game.

 

Offensively things can't get much worse.  The Bills should have a new QB and maybe a new scheme.  I'm not saying they'll make the playoffs, but I don't think that having another 9-7 or 10-6 season and getting in, is as far fetched as some are saying here when you consider what McDermott did this year.