Any Chance of Playing Some 4- 3 Next Year?

[st pete gogolak]

Our base D seemingly forever now has been a 4 - 2 - 5.  If Dorian Williams makes the same jump between first and second year as Bernard (yeah, I know, BIG if), why not play some 4 - 3 - 4 to get Milano, Bernard and Williams on the field at the same time, simply as a change of pace?
 

Better yet, if we move to 4 - 3 as our base D, it can solve some immediate problems on D without signing a bunch of FA’s or depending on rookies to start.  Is there any reason Taron Johnson can’t be full time starting FS?  Good tackler, ball hawk, veteran.  Keep Poyer another year as SS. CB’s are Douglas and Benford.  Elam can come in as nickel, maybe even play some press against slot or TE to take advantage of his supposed strengths.  Milano, Bernard and Williams at LB with Spector giving some vet depth.  Up front, Rousseau, Oliver, DQ (only FA signing) and Miller. 
 

Of course, still need to go heavy on D in draft (after going WR in #1).  Find next year’s replacements for Poyer, Jones and Miller early and draft some CB’s late.  Ideally, you’d like to find a starting DE to allow Miller to play third-down pass rushing specialist (maybe find a way to squeeze money for AJE).  
 

is it ideal?  No. But I think it’s realistic given the cap constraints.  

[SWATeam]

I generally would like to have Taron Johnson on the field.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

4 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

Our base D seemingly forever now has been a 4 - 2 - 5.  If Dorian Williams makes the same jump between first and second year as Bernard (yeah, I know, BIG if), why not play some 4 - 3 - 4 to get Milano, Bernard and Williams on the field at the same time, simply as a change of pace?
 

Better yet, if we move to 4 - 3 as our base D, it can solve some immediate problems on D without signing a bunch of FA’s or depending on rookies to start.  Is there any reason Taron Johnson can’t be full time starting FS?  Good tackler, ball hawk, veteran.  Keep Poyer another year as SS. CB’s are Douglas and Benford.  Elam can come in as nickel, maybe even play some press against slot or TE to take advantage of his supposed strengths.  Milano, Bernard and Williams at LB with Spector giving some vet depth.  Up front, Rousseau, Oliver, DQ (only FA signing) and Miller. 
 

Of course, still need to go heavy on D in draft (after going WR in #1).  Find next year’s replacements for Poyer, Jones and Miller early and draft some CB’s late.  Ideally, you’d like to find a starting DE to allow Miller to play third-down pass rushing specialist (maybe find a way to squeeze money for AJE).  
 

is it ideal?  No. But I think it’s realistic given the cap constraints.  

it is an interesting idea to Shift Taron to safety and play with Williams, Bernard, and Milano on the field more— or at least use that package more often.

 

i do think though they are going to need to sign or draft more safeties regardless, and I really think we need a better backup to Taron as the nickel. When he is out, the entire defense Can’t function.

[GunnerBill]

No. The nickel role Taron plays is critical to our D. 

 

We will continue to be a nickel base.

[LABILLBACKER]

I'd like to see it occasionally but the biggest problem with our D is not the 3....it's the front 4.  As usual the 2nd half and playoffs saw a drop off in qb pressure. 

[CaptnCoke11]

15 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I generally would like to have Taron Johnson on the field.

They can just shift him to like a slot safety in that instance.  Happens a lot around the league.  Defenses have adapted to the spread and there’s been a lot of two/three tight end sets.  Teams are also passing a lot from these heavier sets.  Having bigger bodies on defense that can play run and pass will be essential in those cases.  

Edited February 3 by CaptnCoke11

[vanislebills44]

if by any chance williams comes on like bernard did, u would seemingly have 2 play more..no 2 ways around it 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I think we'll continue to play some 4-3 looks situationally depending on the opponents' personnel group.  We run more nickel than any team in the league and I don't think that's going to change unless Taron gets injured or we struggle to stop the run.  If Dorian Williams continues to improve and we resign Dodson, I would feel pretty good about the linebacker position heading into next season.

[MJS]

I do think that we will play with 3 linebackers more next year. The league is trending towards bigger sets with more tight ends. The Bills will need to adjust.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

They do play 4-3 at times.

Taron Johnson is a top 3 player on the defense. You want him on the field as much as possible. 

I assume this is to get Dorian on the field. Honestly it will be hard if Milano and Bernard are healthy.  They both play 95%+ of all the snaps.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Well, 7 players on the field won't get you a penalty, like 12 will.

*
I will see myself out now.

Me                        : 😕

Rest of TBD-TSW: 😠👉🏽

[section122]

A couple of things....

 

The Bills in the grouping you gave don't really have a sam lb in that alignment.

 

Taron is so critical bc he isn't your typical slot cb.  He is a hitter and operates as an lb sometimes and covers tes.  He allows a certain amount of flexibility that many players dont.

[Heathcliff]

21 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd like to see it occasionally but the biggest problem with our D is not the 3....it's the front 4.  As usual the 2nd half and playoffs saw a drop off in qb pressure. 

I feel the elephant in the room is not discussed as much as it warrants. So much draft capital on the D-Line over the years, no true critical time difference makers, and we don’t talk about coaching. Has our D-Line coaching been an issue not developing all these guys?  I guess we’ll know more next year. 

[SCBills]

21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

No. The nickel role Taron plays is critical to our D. 

 

We will continue to be a nickel base.

I tend to agree, but I could be persuaded to being interested in an increase of 4-3 consisting of Bernard, Milano and a Dorian Williams if he makes a Bernard-like jump in his second year. 
 

That’s a ton of speed and athleticism at linebacker. 

If Taron Johnson could become a nickel/safety hybrid, able to come up in the nickel and drop back in the 4-3, that could be a welcome new wrinkle. 

[Don Otreply]

19 hours ago, MJS said:

I do think that we will play with 3 linebackers more next year. The league is trending towards bigger sets with more tight ends. The Bills will need to adjust.

Should what you say become the norm I can see that happening in the league, but McDermott is pretty wed to “his zone style” come hell or high water so to speak, an “adjustment” like that on Sean’s part would be a bit of a surprise imo, just look at the playoffs, he gets caught with his pants down every post season for the lack of effective adjustments, I say this as a gentle critique, in which I think for the most part Sean is pretty obviously an above average HC, and by win loss record, the best the Bills have had in the modern era. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

22 hours ago, SWATeam said:

I generally would like to have Taron Johnson on the field.

We all would, but if you want to extend his career they need to stop using him as a LB so much. He’s had many concussions. 

Also, if we re-sign Dodson or if Williams makes the kind of growth we hope to see, we definitely will want to get those guys on the field. 

[BearNorth]

After seeing the return to action of both Tre White and Von Miller aren't we being a bit optimistic that Milano will be 100% by opening day.  His injury was no minor ding.

[gonzo1105]

I actually think it’s a possibility if Williams reaches his potential. I don’t think they would use it all the time but all 3 LBs would be extremely athletic coverage LBs who can spy mobile QBs and cover TES and RBs. 
 

Johnson has had a lot of injuries and wonder how much his body can hold up in the long run 

[Thrivefourfive]

Putting another player on the field at D line that can’t do his job and taking off DW42 or Dodson would be a mistake. The Bills would have to draft or bring in a player that makes a consistent impact on the D line. Everything this team has done up front tells us that that’s not happening. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

I said 3-4 with how our LB Corp is shoring up.

[El_diablo]

We should go to a 4-3 when the opponent brings an extra tight end or blocker in. That's why are CB's and undersize LB's are getting beat up.

[djp14150]

On 2/3/2024 at 11:57 AM, st pete gogolak said:

Our base D seemingly forever now has been a 4 - 2 - 5.  If Dorian Williams makes the same jump between first and second year as Bernard (yeah, I know, BIG if), why not play some 4 - 3 - 4 to get Milano, Bernard and Williams on the field at the same time, simply as a change of pace?
 

Better yet, if we move to 4 - 3 as our base D, it can solve some immediate problems on D without signing a bunch of FA’s or depending on rookies to start.  Is there any reason Taron Johnson can’t be full time starting FS?  Good tackler, ball hawk, veteran.  Keep Poyer another year as SS. CB’s are Douglas and Benford.  Elam can come in as nickel, maybe even play some press against slot or TE to take advantage of his supposed strengths.  Milano, Bernard and Williams at LB with Spector giving some vet depth.  Up front, Rousseau, Oliver, DQ (only FA signing) and Miller. 
 

Of course, still need to go heavy on D in draft (after going WR in #1).  Find next year’s replacements for Poyer, Jones and Miller early and draft some CB’s late.  Ideally, you’d like to find a starting DE to allow Miller to play third-down pass rushing specialist (maybe find a way to squeeze money for AJE).  
 

is it ideal?  No. But I think it’s realistic given the cap constraints.  

They could do a 3-3-5 and blitz a LB/DB

[BillsFan2313]

6 hours ago, BearNorth said:

After seeing the return to action of both Tre White and Von Miller aren't we being a bit optimistic that Milano will be 100% by opening day.  His injury was no minor ding.

 

Good point. His injury is a year long recovery 

[warrior9]

On 2/3/2024 at 1:22 PM, vanislebills44 said:

if by any chance williams comes on like bernard did, u would seemingly have 2 play more..no 2 ways around it 

That's not true. He would still be the 3rd best linebacker, we play a nickel base defense. We have 1 all-pro in front of him and another potential all-pro in front of him and Taron Johnson is an All-pro. Taron plays the run pretty well and he won't be coming off the field. 

 

There are more than 2 ways around it, actually. 

[st pete gogolak]

45 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

That's not true. He would still be the 3rd best linebacker, we play a nickel base defense. We have 1 all-pro in front of him and another potential all-pro in front of him and Taron Johnson is an All-pro. Taron plays the run pretty well and he won't be coming off the field. 

 

There are more than 2 ways around it, actually. 

Doesn’t this scream playing Taron full time at FS (assuming Williams is one of your 11 best D players)?  It solves a lot of problems.

[BigDingus]

22 hours ago, BearNorth said:

After seeing the return to action of both Tre White and Von Miller aren't we being a bit optimistic that Milano will be 100% by opening day.  His injury was no minor ding.

 

Agree, but his injury also happened earlier in the season than the other 2, so maybe we'll get lucky?

[HoofHearted]

19 hours ago, El_diablo said:

We should go to a 4-3 when the opponent brings an extra tight end or blocker in. That's why are CB's and undersize LB's are getting beat up.

We do. Anything 12p or heavier we bring in more backers.

[ScotSHO]

43 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

We do. Anything 12p or heavier we bring in more backers.

Correct, the problem is the league hardly ever goes to those personnel groupings.  Look at 2021:

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/personnel-groupings/offense/offensive-personnel-grouping-frequency-2021/

[HoofHearted]

27 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

Correct, the problem is the league hardly ever goes to those personnel groupings.  Look at 2021:

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/personnel-groupings/offense/offensive-personnel-grouping-frequency-2021/

Which is why we base out of Nickel.

[vanislebills44]

3 hours ago, warrior9 said:

That's not true. He would still be the 3rd best linebacker, we play a nickel base defense. We have 1 all-pro in front of him and another potential all-pro in front of him and Taron Johnson is an All-pro. Taron plays the run pretty well and he won't be coming off the field. 

 

There are more than 2 ways around it, actually. 

ok yes, agreed, but if williams comes anything close to bernards play this year, how can u justify not playing a little more 4/3...im sure they can figure a way to keep johnson n williams on the field if the situation arises...iffff williams plays like bernard did this year, u dont keep that player on the bench...im sayin a little more not a 50/50 split or anything but some more if williams play erupts...

[warrior9]

21 minutes ago, vanislebills44 said:

ok yes, agreed, but if williams comes anything close to bernards play this year, how can u justify not playing a little more 4/3...im sure they can figure a way to keep johnson n williams on the field if the situation arises...iffff williams plays like bernard did this year, u dont keep that player on the bench...im sayin a little more not a 50/50 split or anything but some more if williams play erupts...

It's never a bad thing to have too much talent. 

It would benefit us in other ways, as well. We don't know what Milano is going to look like coming off that injury. 

3 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

Doesn’t this scream playing Taron full time at FS (assuming Williams is one of your 11 best D players)?  It solves a lot of problems.

Not even the slightest chance possible. 

 

Nickel and Safety do 2 very different things. Safety's rarely cover slot WR, play man, etc etc. Moving Taron to safety would be completely changing his skill set. THAT or he would just be a safety in the box and they'd have 2 more safeties on the field. nothing would change. 

[DrDawkinstein]

ANY chance? Sure there is a chance the NFL completely flips from a passing league back to the ground and pound days. Then it would make sense to put the other LB back on the field. But unless that happens, we're running Nickel as our base as we should. Especially when you have a player like Taron Johnson in that spot.

[biggerdaddynj]

I liked the Jim Schwartz 4-3 defenses but as others have very aptly noted we need the personnel to run the 4-3 (with some depth too so AJ Klein doesn’t come off his couch to chase after TEs).

Edited February 5 by biggerdaddynj

[Flipnmi]

On 2/4/2024 at 9:42 AM, SCBills said:

I tend to agree, but I could be persuaded to being interested in an increase of 4-3 consisting of Bernard, Milano and a Dorian Williams if he makes a Bernard-like jump in his second year. 
 

That’s a ton of speed and athleticism at linebacker. 

If Taron Johnson could become a nickel/safety hybrid, able to come up in the nickel and drop back in the 4-3, that could be a welcome new wrinkle. 

I'm not opposed to this idea as a option (not base). But we also we need a better answer for the times when Taron is dinged up. I didn't feel he was playing to his standard during some of the early losses and suspected that he wasn't at 100%. Cam was a decent backup Safety, but was picked on whenever he replaced Taron at Nickel.  

[Big Turk]

Unlikely.

[Matt_In_NH]

At times yes but mostly it will be nickel.  I would not expect a big difference form the last number of years.  
 

On 2/4/2024 at 5:02 PM, El_diablo said:

We should go to a 4-3 when the opponent brings an extra tight end or blocker in. That's why are CB's and undersize LB's are getting beat up.

The bills our going to be in nickel.  

[DJB]

We are going to remain in Nickel. For the first time in a long time we actually have some terrific depth at LB. 
 

I don’t think we will change fundamentally how we play D but I could see from time to time the occasional three LB in the game likely in obvious short yardage run plays 

Edited February 9 by DJB

[Pete]

3-4 we would have to draft and sign a few more LBers.

 

Right now, we are pretty much set at LB, and we have massive holes at DL, Edge, S, and WR.  Let’s start filling holes, before we dig more.

 

we have limited cap space and need our draft picks to fill roster spots at more urgent positions.

 

PS Taron is awesome!  Why take him out?

[colin]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

3-4 we would have to draft and sign a few more LBers.

 

Right now, we are pretty much set at LB, and we have massive holes at DL, Edge, S, and WR.  Let’s start filling holes, before we dig more.

 

we have limited cap space and need our draft picks to fill roster spots at more urgent positions.

 

PS Taron is awesome!  Why take him out?

 

 

i don't think it could possibly happen, but given where we are at lb and dl, it would be interesting to see the bills go to a 3-3 nickle base.  we'd need a couple massive plugs at nose, and another big strong DE or two, but the upside would be we'd not have to platoon as many old over priced DLs all the time, and we'd have more room to be creative in the pass rush.

 

im thinking it's all cyclical, and edge guys and off ball LBs have become super sought after at high prices in the nfl, so big strong lbs (say in the dorian williams mold, rather than some 1995 style DT that lines up 3 yards back) and massive space eating monsters in the guy are cheaper now.  also, guys like groot and oliver are near ideal 3-4 ends.