Gunner's 2024 Mock Draft - FINAL v3.0 NOW LIVE (p.13)

[Allen2Moulds]

On 1/29/2024 at 11:28 AM, GunnerBill said:

- - - - - WARNING: LONG POST - - - - -

 

Drum roll please!!! As always, in the week after the conference Championship games here comes version 1 of my 2024 Mock Draft. For any new readers I do three mocks every year:

 

Version 1 - a two rounder, no trades, released late January;

Version 2 - a one rounder allowing myself trades after free agency;

Version 3 - a one rounder, no trades, in the 48 hours before the draft and that is the one I then score myself against for accuracy (the last two years have been pretty good scores).

 

So here we go - version 1.0 - can someone put the Chicago Bears on the clock?

 

 

- - - Round 1 - - -

 

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC

The Bears have three options here. They can draft Williams (which is what I’d do), they can trade down and collect picks (which is what they did last year) or they can stand pat and draft a non-Quarterback (which would be crazy). For now I’m going with them trading Justin Fields and starting over at QB.

 

2. Washington Commanders – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina

At the time of writing the Commanders don’t yet have a coach, but they do have a General Manager – Adam Peters – who came from the 49ers and lived the Trey Lance experience. I don’t expect him to repeat that mistake here and therefore I think his search for a franchise QB will weigh Maye’s ability to transition quickly to an NFL offense higher than the physical potential of Jayden Daniels.

 

3. New England Patriots – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU

Which leaves Daniels for New England. They just have to find a Quarterback. And while I think of the three teams at the top of this draft the Patriots are the most likely to go the veteran route in 2024, for now I have them in the sweepstakes and I think Jerod Mayo might be more willing than Bill Belichick to go away from the traditional pure pocket passer template in picking Daniels.

 

4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jnr – Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The Cardinals seem to be sticking with Kyler Murray so they need to get him a legit #1 wide receiver again. His most productive spell of NFL football came when he was first paired with DeAndre Hopkins and Harrison is the guy who profiles best to be a true #1 wideout – though I don’t quite buy the “best WR prospect ever” hype.

 

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Chargers offensive weaponry has been predicated on size at receiver for as long as I can remember. That was former GM Tom Telesco’s MO. But Mike Williams is a potential cap casualty, Keenan Allen is increasingly old and brittle and Quentin Johnston had an in and out rookie year. They need a speedy separator who can work inside the numbers as well as downfield. Nabers is the perfect fit.

 

6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington

With no standout defensive difference maker at the top of this class the table is set for three Quarterbacks and three receivers to make up the first 6 picks. Welcome to the NFL in 2024. The Giants just have to find a true #1 receiver who can threaten downfield and dominate outside.

 

7. Tennessee Titans – Ola Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State

When Taylor Lewan departed last February I said the Titans needed to draft a left tackle. Instead they tried to get by with Andre Dillard and drafted Peter Skoronski to play guard. Skoronski did okay for a rookie but Dillard was a disaster. Fashanu or Joe Alt should be the pick and as the Titans pivot towards being a Will Levis team and not a Derrick Henry team I prefer Fashanu as a pass protector.

 

8. Atlanta Falcons – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama

Everyone knows Atlanta needs a Quarterback but they have hired a defensive coach in Raheem Morris and in this scenario the first three Quarterbacks are off the board. I suspect that means the veteran Quarterback option rather than a rookie and if they do go that route their other glaring need is pass rusher. 37-year-old Calais Campbell led the team with 6.5 sacks in 2023.

 

9. Chicago Bears – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Norte Dame

The Bears cannot trot Braxton Jones out at left tackle again while also pretending they are trying to win. Their plan to take a college right tackle in Darnell Wright and switch him back to the left side has yet to take shape and he won’t be up to it if it ever does. They need a franchise left tackle. Alt is plug and play for a decade.

 

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia

The Jets would be gutted to miss out on the top two tackles at this spot. Offensive line is by far their biggest need. They don’t have much at tight end though either and many would have Bowers ranked among the best available at this spot.

 

11.  Minnesota Vikings – Kool-Aid McKinstry – Cornerback, Alabama

The Vikings have to get better a corner. They drafted Andrew Booth two years ago but he has been constantly hurt and they brought in Byron Murphy as a mid-range free agent but he failed to shore things up. This is a muddled corner class that lacks a true star but McKinstry’s ability in press man projects well into Brian Flores’s defense.

 

12. Denver Broncos – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA

The Broncos got great value when trading away Bradley Chubb but since then have struggled for a consistent pass rush and have had to resort to frequent blitzing. That has had an impact on their coverage unit whose performance dipped this year. Latu is an explosive, bendy edge rusher who will add some pop to their defensive front.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois

I have no idea what the Raiders’ plan at Quarterback is. Could they take a shot on Penix, McCarthy or Nix here? They definitely could. But they are brutal in the middle of their defensive line. No penetration, no strength at the point of attack in the run game, no nothing. Newton doesn’t have prototypical size but he will be a disruptor at the next level. Immediate upgrade.

 

14. New Orleans Saints – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State

Cam Jordan is going to be an interesting Hall of Fame debate when his time comes, he only has six sacks fewer than classmate Von Miller who everyone considers a lock. But 2023 was the year when he finally fell off the cliff. The Saints need to draft his replacement and Verse fits their scheme.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson

The Colts are not well stacked in the secondary. JuJu Brents was a second round pick last year and was okay as a rookie but the situation opposite him at the other corner spot is brutal. Nate Wiggins is a perfect scheme fit for the cover 3 style that defensive coordinator Gus Bradley likes to run.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks – Michael Penix Jnr – Quarterback, Washington

Geno Smith has been a serviceable placeholder the past two years but selecting Penix would allow the new regime in Seattle to remould this team around him and he would come into a decent situation on offense with bookend tackles and a couple of decent receivers to begin his career.

 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jnr – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Jags need help at a lot of premium positions. Josh Allen is a free agent on the edge, Calvin Ridley is a free agent at receiver, the corner situation opposite Tyson Campbell is a mess and they could stand to upgrade from Cam Robinson at left tackle. But speed on the outside is the priority. Thomas is already getting buzz in the process and all expectations are he will blow up at the combine.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Another team with some major needs is the Bengals. They have been turning water into wine at corner the past couple of years but that luck seemed to run out in 2023. Receiver could also be an issue if Higgins and Boyd both walk. However, Jonah Williams was as bad at right tackle as he had been at left and is a free agent anyway, so JC Latham as a plug and play right tackle makes sense.

 

19. Los Angeles Rams – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa

I have heard the theory that the Rams can afford to be position agnostic and take the best player on the board. I think they have a need in the secondary and adding talent there must be a priority for a front office not used to having 1st round picks. Some see DeJean as a corner, some a safety, others as a Kyle Hamilton type swiss army knife. I think he’d upgrade the Rams however he is used.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

The Steelers started last year’s draft by going offensive tackle in round one then corner with the first pick of round two. Yet I feel both positions remain their biggest needs on the roster. Broderick Jones had some bumps at right tackle as a rookie but still outperformed Dan Moore who allowed 55 pressures and 8 sacks from left tackle. You probably want to start Guyton on the right and slide Jones over to the blindside but Guyton has potential to play left tackle down the road.

 

21. Miami Dolphins – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

Here comes the offensive line run as a third tackle flies off the board in four picks! Terron Armstead is talking retirement which would leave a gap at left tackle for the Dolphins to plug, but even if he stays around Fuaga could start immediately at guard where Robert Hunt is a pending free agent.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama

If there was a center worthy of this pick that might be the direction I’d go in given Jason Kelce’s retirement - but there isn’t. The Eagles have struggled this year at corner as James Bradberry and Darius Slay began to look their age. Terrion Arnold is my #1 corner and could be the first off the board. I have him 3rd here because of specific scheme fits earlier on but he’d be a steal at this spot.

 

23. Houston Texans – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas

This pick originally belonged to the Browns but was flipped in the Deshaun Watson trade. The Texans have a promising young roster but they could do with some more pop in the middle of their defensive front. Byron Murphy is undersized but explosive and with him in the middle and Will Anderson on the edge this would be a defensive line to fear.

 

24. Dallas Cowboys – Troy Franklin – Wide Receiver, Oregon

The Cowboys offense is very CeeDee Lamb centric. Brandin Cooks is past his best, Michael Gallup is inconsistent and Jalen Tolbert hasn’t quite broken through despite flashes. They need another legit target outside and Franklin has the vertical speed to open things up and allow for Lamb to work the middle of the field.

 

25. Green Bay Packers – Troy Fautanu – Guard, Washington

One of the Packers’ last 12 first round picks has been spent on offense (Jordan Love). In that time they have picked five first round defensive backs and that is a possibility here with question marks over Jaire Alexander’s future and holes at safety. But I have them leaning offense and upgrading the interior of their offensive line with Fautanu a college tackle who will likely play guard in the NFL.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo

Mitchell has been one of the buzziest players in the first month of draft season and a lot of respected analysts see him making his way into round 1. I like this fit. The Buccs have not been afraid to select smaller school guys early in the draft and he plays with the aggressiveness that Todd Bowles loves in his corners.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State

The Cardinals’ sack leader in 2023 was Dennis Gardeck, a former UDFA out of West Virginia State, hardly a household name even in his own household. They have to find a pass rusher. Chop Robinson is raw, and he doesn’t have the sack production numbers in college to be a first round pick. But the ceiling is huge and on a rebuilding team like Arizona they can afford to let him develop.

 

28. Buffalo Bills – Xavier Legette – Wide Receiver, South Carolina

The Bills have to get more dynamic at wide receiver and Legette has some size and could run in the 4.3s at the combine. He is primarily a vertical, outside receiver, but he can catch a short pass and take the ball the distance too as he showed vs Mississippi State. The doubts around him are one season of production and age (he will be 23 by the draft) but the upside is worth the risk.

 

29. Detroit Lions – Kamari Lassiter – Cornerback, Georgia

The Lions have had a great season but they still have an achilles heel at corner. Brian Branch was borderline elite in the slot as a rookie but they need boundary help badly. Lassiter didn’t give up a single touchdown in coverage in 2023, and while he needs to improve his ball skills to make some of those game changing plays he would be an upgrade in Detroit.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens – Bralen Trice – EDGE, Washington

The Ravens have one of the more complete rosters in football. But at outside linebacker both Jadaveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy played on one-year deals. Former first rounder Odafe Oweh has never really cemented his spot and Bralen Trice just feels so Baltimore. Intelligent, high-motor, decent burst and needs to play as an outside rusher in a 3-4, so is a definite scheme fit.

 

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Adonai Mitchell – Wide Receiver, Texas

The Chiefs receivers were among the worst in the NFL in 2023 and despite Rashee Rice having a nice rookie year I expect Kansas City to be aggressive in seeking an upgrade in this draft. Mitchell has the size but lacks the explosion of some of those who have gone ahead of him. But he has excellent hands (1 drop in 2023) and for a team that has suffered with drops that must make him appealing.

 

32. San Francisco 49ers – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia

The 49ers lost Mike McGlinchey in free agency last year and haven’t quite cracked the right tackle conundrum since. When you add to that the fact that Trent Williams is 36 this summer and could even hang them up if the 9ers win the Superbowl and the need at tackle is acute. Mims is raw, but the potential is there. He would start at right tackle but in the long term could play on the blindside.

 

- - - Round 2 - - - 

 

33. Carolina Panthers – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona

Two years ago when Icky Ekwonu was coming out I said he is really talented but he is a guard at the NFL level and lacks the footspeed to play on an island at tackle. He gave up eleven sacks this year. Some of that was on Bryce Young holding the ball but a lot was on Ekwonu. Jordan Morgan’s feet are ballerina-esque in comparison. Plug him in at left tackle and move Ekwonu inside to guard.

 

34. New England Patriots – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

Having taken a Quarterback in round one the Patriots should help that guy out with some speed and explosiveness at wide receiver. Their offense has been painfully one paced for years now and while Worthy projects to me as more of a good #2 than a #1 receiver he fits a need here.

 

35. Arizona Cardinals – Jackson Powers-Johnson – Center, Oregon

The Cardinals have so many needs it is tricky to work out where they go next with their third pick in this draft. Corner is probably the most glaring need but the next couple od guys on the board there are not natural scheme fits. Powers-Johnson would be an immediate upgrade to an interior offensive line that really struggled in 2023, whether he starts at center or guard.

 

36. Washington Commanders – Chris Braswell – EDGE, Alabama

The mid-season fire sale of pass rushers in Washington has left them with very little pop on the edge and the top three guys in their rotation by the season’s end are all free agents. They have to address that need.  Braswell is more a power rusher than a speed rusher but he would at least solidify a spot.

 

37. Los Angeles Chargers – T’Vondre Sweat – Defensive Tackle, Texas

When I think about Jim Harbaugh teams I think about big, powerful, trench players. Nick Williams and Austin Johnson have underwhelmed in the Chargers’ defensive interior and both are free agents. Sweat is a huge guy with unusual explosion at that size. He’d be a day 1 starter.

 

38. Tennessee Titans – Ennis Rakestraw – Cornerback, Missouri

The Titans haven’t yet confirmed a defensive coordinator which could affect this pick as Rakestraw reminds me of Kaiir Elam – he HAS to play in a man heavy scheme and struggles with zone transitions. But both of Tennessee’s starting corners are free agents and he is one of the best players remaining on the board.

 

39. New York Giants – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan

The Giants are tied to Daniel Jones for one more year, and there are a couple of interesting prospects still on the board here in round two. I’m not as high on McCarthy as some but I could imagine him running some of Brian Daboll’s passing concepts at least as well as Daniel Jones and for a lot less money. He gives the franchise a shot to re-set at Quarterback.

 

40. Washington Commanders – Graham Barton – Guard, Duke

We are now hitting the second offensive line run. If, as expected, Ben Johnson is the next coach in DC he needs to start upgrading the offensive line, which was a key building block of his offense in Detroit. Barton is a college tackle who would likely begin at guard in Washington.

 

41. Green Bay – Kamren Kinchens – Safety, Miami

Even if the Packers can resist the temptation to take a defensive back in round one they will definitely select at least one on day two. Both of their starting safeties are free agents and it doesn’t sound like former first rounder Darnell Savage will be brought back. Kinchens reminds me some of Savage and would step straight into that void.

 

42. Minnesota Vikings – Bo Nix – Quarterback, Oregon

Kirk Cousins is a free agent. I think the Vikings will bring him back but I don’t expect a long term commitment. I think Bo Nix needs a situation where he can sit for a year and learn the NFL game before being pressed to start. This pick could work out for all parties.

 

43. Atlanta Falcons – Ladd McConkey – Wide Receiver, Georgia

The Falcons have nothing at all at receiver beyond Drake London and the JAGs they do have are all about to be free agents in any event. McConkey is a guy you can line up outside or in the slot and do a lot of horizontal game with to allow London to focus on threating downfield.

 

44. Las Vegas Raiders – Kingsley Suamataia – Offensive Tackle, BYU

The Raiders are another team that needs to upgrade their offensive line. Their starting right tackle is a free agent and they haven’t had good production from that spot opposite Kolton Miller in any event. Suamataia played left tackle this past year but was more impressive in 2022 on the right side of BYU’s line.

 

45. New Orleans Saints – Keon Coleman – Wide Receiver, Florida State

This is where the fall ends for Coleman as the Saints finally accept that Michael Thomas is never going to be the guy he was before the injuries hit and add the Florida State wideout as the big body compliment to Chris Olave’s game breaking speed.

 

46. Indianapolis Colts – Jeremiah Trotter – Linebacker, Clemson

The Colts cut ties with Darius Leonard halfway through the 2023 season as it was clear he had declined as a player from his all-pro pomp. They could look to replace him by snagging Clemson’s Trotter who has the explosiveness and coverage skill to be a modern three down linebacker.

 

47. New York Giants – Leonard Taylor III – Defensive Tackle, Miami

The Giants need help on both lines, but on the offensive line they need vets to solidify things now having already spent good draft capital. On the defensive side Dexter Lawrence is a stud but needs a running mate inside and Taylor is a big, explosive, penetrator from the 3tech spot.

 

48. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jonah Elliss – EDGE, Utah

As mentioned previously, Josh Allen is a free agent. Most people expect the Jaguars to retain him but even if they do they need more pass rush potential around him. Enter Elliss, with 13 sacks and an impressive pass rush win rate for the Utes in 2023. I think his relative lack of size probably means he has to play as an outside ‘backer in a 3-4 so Jacksonville’s scheme makes sense.

 

49. Cincinnati Bengals – Devontez Walker – Wide Receiver, North Carolina

I do think it is likely that Tee Higgins has played his final snaps for the Bengals and therefore Ja’Marr Chase will need a new running mate. Walker arguably took a step back this year and struggled to separate vs man coverage but as a #2 who excels in contested catch situations he fits here.

 

50. Philadelphia Eagles – Jonathan Brooks – Running Back, Texas

D’Andre Swift had a 1,000 yard season as Philadelphia’s lead back but is now a free agent and is likely beyond their budget to retain with other needs more pressing. I think Brooks is pretty much a perfect fit for what the Eagles do in the run game and while this might feel early for him I love the fit.

 

51. Los Angeles Rams – Adisa Isaac – EDGE, Penn State

The second Penn State edge rusher comes off the board. Again, I feel like this is possibly a tad early for him based on talent, but he reminds me of raw version of Leonard Floyd who found success in this scheme using his long limbs to create a bull rush in passing situations.

 

52. Pittsburgh Steelers – Edgerrin Cooper – Linebacker, Texas A&M

The Steelers defense goes as their front goes, by and large, but that is at least in part because they are sub-par at linebacker. When I think of great Steeler defenses they had an aggressive downhill player at the second level and Cooper would give them that skillset.

 

53. Miami Dolphins – Kris Jenkins – Defensive Tackle, Michigan

Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis and Da’Shawn Hand are all impending free agents and even if Wilkins was able to be retained they would need to fortify around him. Jenkins is a versatile player who is big enough to hold up against the run but who offers some interior pass rush potential too.

 

54. Philadelphia Eagles – Jermaine Burton – Wide Receiver, Alabama

Who knows what is going on with AJ Brown? But even if that situation resolves itself the Eagles have a sneaky need at receiver because behind Brown and Devonta Smith the cupboard is pretty much bare. Burton is an effective deep threat but also can be moved around the formation and I expect him to sneak into round 2 as a result.

 

55. Cleveland Browns – Ja’Lynn Polk – Wide Receiver, Washington

The Browns need a reliable compliment to Amari Cooper and with basically no free agent cash to spend at the position they have to look to the draft. Polk had over 1,000 yards in Washington’s run to the National Championship game and is a well-rounded prospect even if he lacks a bit of pop.

 

56. Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Paul – Offensive Tackle, Houston

The Cowboys success (at least in the regular season) in recent years has been in no small part down to their offensive line. They have been willing to spend high picks to keep it well stocked and Patrick Paul gives them a potential upgrade at right tackle or an option at left tackle if Tyron Smith retires.

 

57. Green Bay Packers – TJ Tampa – Cornerback, Iowa State

I have already referenced the uncertainty of Jaire Alexander’s future and without him the cupboard starts to look a little bare at corner for Green Bay. TJ Tampa is an excellent fit for zone heavy schemes and that seems to be the direction the Packers’ search for a new coordinator is heading.

 

58. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tyler Nubin – Safety, Minnesota

Having gone corner in round one the Buccs go back to the well in the secondary snagging Nubin who many believe is the top pure safety in the class. Both starting safeties (Antonie Winfield and Ryan Neal) are free agents so it is likely Tampa needs a guy who can start right away.

 

59. Houston Texans – Ja’Tavion Sanders – Tight End, Texas

Dalton Schultz had a nice season for the Texans at tight end but he was playing on a one year deal below his true market value. It would likely cost more to keep him and in that situation drafting a young, athletic, tight end with excellent hands to grow with CJ Stroud might be the play.

 

60. Buffalo Bills – Calen Bullock – Safety, USC

The Bills need help on the defensive line and at safety given expiring contracts and age concerns. However, the defensive line run has already taken place in this round leaving better value at safety. Bullock will need to improve his technique as a tackler but he is a bigger safety who can play in the box or be a match up weapon in coverage.

 

61. Detroit Lions – Brandon Dorlus – Defensive Tackle, Oregon

We know that the Lions General Manager Brad Holmes believes in building front to back and Dorlus as an interior rusher who is versatile enough to play a couple of spots in their 5 man front and then play a more conventional 3 tech when they go to a 4 man front makes some sense.

 

62. Baltimore Ravens – Trey Benson – Running Back, Florida State

JK Dobbins career with the Ravens is full of what ifs as the injury bug has bitten him hard. Gus Edwards has been a reliable deputy but he is a free agent. Benson could well run in the high 4.3s and that speed next to Zay Flowers and Lamar Jackson could be a nightmare for defenses.

 

63. Kansas City Chiefs – Josh Newton – Cornerback, TCU

The Chiefs are not exactly desperate at corner but at the moment L’Jarius Sneed is scheduled to hit free agency and after proving himself a high level outside corner, rather than just an excellent slot, he is going to get paid. Josh Newton has similar traits to Sneed and Trent McDuffie – inside / outside flexibility and sticky in man coverage.

 

64. San Francisco 49ers – Christian Haynes – Guard, Connecticut

This man was born to play for Kyle Shanahan. The perfect zone blocking guard, athletic, excellent technique, quick feet and high football IQ. He is a small school guy who could really benefit from the exposure of this week’s senior bowl and rise up boards but he is such a perfect fit for the 9ers.

 

 

Okay TSW.... feel free to flame away!!!

I like it, but I'm really hoping we have a shot at drafting Brian Thomas, but I do think your board is accurate, in that he goes higher. Seems like someone that will also test well and shoot up the board. Legette to me is the biggest boom or bust pick in this draft. Equally scares/excites me.

[GASabresIUFan]

Legette had a tough first day at the Senior Bowl while McConkey, now healthy, dominated the DBs in the one on one drills.  

[Aussie Joe]

After the Senior Bowl practices …

 

Mitchell from Toledo moving up from the bottom of the first… pretty obvious I know….

 

Tez Walker slipping out of the second ? …

Edited February 3 by Aussie Joe

[No_Matter_What]

@GunnerBill, who do you think is our competition to draft WR round 1?

 

I think we don't have to care about top 10 teams, since these teams will (most likely) draft MHJ, Nabers and Odunze and nobody else.

 

I think we can quite safely exclude Vikings, Seahawks, Rams, Dolphins, Eagles (I've seen some mocks sending them WR though), Packers and Cards (they are taking one with their first pick).

 

On the other hand, Jags, Cowboys, Bengals (if Higgins walks), Bucs and Chiefs are pretty likely (I list Chiefs since they might jump us).

 

What about the rest? I didn't see any WRs mocked to Broncos, Raiders, Saints and Colts (picks 12-15), and they all could use some WR help. Do you think it is too soon for them for tier 2 WRs?

 

Then only Steelers and Texans remain if I count correctly.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

@GunnerBill, who do you think is our competition to draft WR round 1?

 

I think we don't have to care about top 10 teams, since these teams will (most likely) draft MHJ, Nabers and Odunze and nobody else.

 

I think we can quite safely exclude Vikings, Seahawks, Rams, Dolphins, Eagles (I've seen some mocks sending them WR though), Packers and Cards (they are taking one with their first pick).

 

On the other hand, Jags, Cowboys, Bengals (if Higgins walks), Bucs and Chiefs are pretty likely (I list Chiefs since they might jump us).

 

What about the rest? I didn't see any WRs mocked to Broncos, Raiders, Saints and Colts (picks 12-15), and they all could use some WR help. Do you think it is too soon for them for tier 2 WRs?

 

Then only Steelers and Texans remain if I count correctly.

 

Good question. I think Eagles are a question mark because of the AJ Brown speculation. But I agree if he stays put they are out of the round 1 receiver stakes.

 

I think you are right: Jags, Cowboys, Bengals are the main three in that second wave of potential WR teams I think. I suspect Evans will stay in Tampa and as such they feel like more a day 2 receiver team to me but if he walks day 1 is a possibility. 

 

Then yep, a Chiefs trade up is the other one to watch. I do think the Texans are a wildcard as well. They have a couple of good receivers but if a receiver was BPA there I wouldn't totally rule it out.

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good question. I think Eagles are a question mark because of the AJ Brown speculation. But I agree if he stays put they are out of the round 1 receiver stakes.

 

I think you are right: Jags, Cowboys, Bengals are the main three in that second wave of potential WR teams I think. I suspect Evans will stay in Tampa and as such they feel like more a day 2 receiver team to me but if he walks day 1 is a possibility. 

 

Then yep, a Chiefs trade up is the other one to watch. I do think the Texans are a wildcard as well. They have a couple of good receivers but if a receiver was BPA there I wouldn't totally rule it out.

Don’t you have a match to watch? 

[No_Matter_What]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good question. I think Eagles are a question mark because of the AJ Brown speculation. But I agree if he stays put they are out of the round 1 receiver stakes.

 

I think you are right: Jags, Cowboys, Bengals are the main three in that second wave of potential WR teams I think. I suspect Evans will stay in Tampa and as such they feel like more a day 2 receiver team to me but if he walks day 1 is a possibility. 

 

Then yep, a Chiefs trade up is the other one to watch. I do think the Texans are a wildcard as well. They have a couple of good receivers but if a receiver was BPA there I wouldn't totally rule it out.

And the blue 4 who pick 12-15?

 

Broncos, Raiders, Saints, Colts? They all seems like candidates to me so do you think they have much bigger needs or the value just isn't there where they pick?

[Prospector]

I thought Keon Coleman would be a top 15 pick during the year. Why do you guys think he’s falling in mocks now? I haven’t been following too closely, did he test or measure poorly recently? 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Don’t you have a match to watch? 

 

Haha yep.

5 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

And the blue 4 who pick 12-15?

 

Broncos, Raiders, Saints, Colts? They all seems like candidates to me so do you think they have much bigger needs or the value just isn't there where they pick?

 

Think bigger needs. If one of the top 3 got there, sure. But not sure the second tier of receivers would be must haves for them.

[gonzo1105]

2 hours ago, Prospector said:

I thought Keon Coleman would be a top 15 pick during the year. Why do you guys think he’s falling in mocks now? I haven’t been following too closely, did he test or measure poorly recently? 

He doesn’t separate from DBs, he will likely run slower and his contested drop rate was high for a guy who doesn’t separate he needs to win those 

Edited February 4 by gonzo1105

[Prospector]

3 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

He doesn’t separate from WRs, he will likely run slower and his contested drop rate was high for a guy who doesn’t separate he needs to win those 

Makes sense… I didn’t watch a lot of him, but his highlights were spectacular 

[Estro]

Legette is not a 1st round prospect. Some smart people who follow these prospects for a living have said as much. He's not a route runner, separator.

 

The Bills need a guy with juice, oily hips and the ability to separate. Legette is not that prospect, IMO

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Estro said:

Legette is not a 1st round prospect. Some smart people who follow these prospects for a living have said as much. He's not a route runner, separator.

 

The Bills need a guy with juice, oily hips and the ability to separate. Legette is not that prospect, IMO

 

Yea. I disagree with them. I'm fine to be out on my own on it. I've watched 6 full games of his, I have a late 1st round grade on him on the basis of that tape. He may well go day 2, that's the draft. It's a game of opinions. If he is there at #28 I'd be very satisfied if he were the pick. I think his chance of being the pick are worse post senior bowl, but it wouldn't put me off personally. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

4 hours ago, Prospector said:

I thought Keon Coleman would be a top 15 pick during the year. Why do you guys think he’s falling in mocks now? I haven’t been following too closely, did he test or measure poorly recently? 

Because he has the size teams love but pretty much nothing else. 

[starrymessenger]

On 1/31/2024 at 10:14 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

Legette had a tough first day at the Senior Bowl while McConkey, now healthy, dominated the DBs in the one on one drills.  

If he hadn’t had a better second day you’d have to ask a lot of questions. The DBs are at a big disadvantage in those drills all by themselves and often having to guess what the WR is going to do.

[DJB]

Version 2 soon?

[GunnerBill]

Just now, DJB said:

Version 2 soon?

 

I started work on it Friday. I reckon by next weekend some time.

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I started work on it Friday. I reckon by next weekend some time.

I reckon that’s the first time I heard a Brit say I reckon I reckon.

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/4/2024 at 10:52 AM, Estro said:

Legette is not a 1st round prospect. Some smart people who follow these prospects for a living have said as much. He's not a route runner, separator.

 

The Bills need a guy with juice, oily hips and the ability to separate. Legette is not that prospect, IMO

Just find a way to trade up for Thomas without giving away too much. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I started work on it Friday. I reckon by next weekend some time.

 

Come on Gooner.....just tell Rishi you need a day off to complete a vital brief in the national interest.

[buffaloaggie]

Legette disappeared in big games at South Carolina, and he has dropped to the 9th top WR from some draft "experts". I know every team would love to see him as the 2nd coming of DK Metcalf, but Legette seems like 2nd round material. He's even shrunk from 6'3" to 6'1". Depending on what's available, I think you take the best value from OC, S, CB, DT. WR would be a nice to have, but the team has bigger needs. If a WR slides, snag him in the 2nd.

[GunnerBill]

Okay here is version 2.0, post free agency and with FOUR trades!!! Flame away!!

 

 

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC

It was a tentative pick in version 1.0, but trading away (maybe that should be “giving away”?) Justin Fields to the Steelers has set this in stone. Also, while I do believe the smoke that there are teams who don’t have Caleb Williams as QB1 the Bears are not one of them. He will be the pick.

 

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU

Teams have tried sniffing around the number 2 pick looking at trade possibilities and have been firmly knocked back – the Commanders are taking a Quarterback. I had Drake Maye here in version 1.0 but it increasingly feels like the momentum is behind Daniels to Washington.

 

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina

The trendy move here has been to have the Patriots trading out (normally with the Vikings). But I just don’t understand why they would do that. The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke as the Quarterbacks on the roster. They have to take a Quarterback and I believe they’d prefer Maye to Daniels in any event.

 

4. TRADE!! Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan (Minnesota gets #4 – 1800 value; Arizona gets #11, #23 & #167 – 2034 value)

Which means the draft starts here. Let me be clear I think #4 is too early for JJ McCarthy but it is the law of supply and demand. He seems to be the consensus 4th QB off the board and there as many as four teams potentially in the mix so if you don’t come up to take him here one of the others will. I suspect Minnesota are the most desperate and they have those two first rounders to dangle but keep an eye on the Giants as a dark horse for this trade because they have less distance to go to this pick and it would mean Arizona still gets one of the top two receivers at #6.

  

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Marvin Harrison Jnr, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

When Marvin Harrison Snr was an NFL rookie his Quarterback was Jim Harbaugh. In a scenario where the first four guys off the board are Quarterbacks the NFL will go full circle and in Marvin Harrison Jnr’s rookie season in the NFL his Head Coach will be Jim Harbaugh.

 

6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Giants have to add playmakers for their passing game whoever the Quarterback is. They have spent day two picks on Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt the last two years but so far the contributions have been modest. They need a legit #1 threat. Nabers can be used the way Brian Daboll used Stefon Diggs in Buffalo.

 

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

As I said in version 1.0 the Titans tried to get by with Andre Dillard at left tackle in 2023 and it was a predictable car crash.  This season is all about evaluating Will Levis for new Head Coach Brian Callahan and that starts with giving him protection. Callahan Snr is coaching the offensive line and will love working with Alt who is a mean, nasty plug and play left tackle.

 

8. TRADE!! Arizona Cardinals – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington (Arizona gets #8 – 1400 value; Atlanta gets #11, #90 & #186 – 1407 value)

We saw the Cardinals do this last year, when they traded back from #3 to #12 and then up again from #12 to #6. I think they want to sell #4 but also want to still snag one of the top 3 receivers which means getting ahead of the Bears and Jets. Odunze is an immediate upgrade for them.

 

9. Chicago Bears – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama

The Bears traded for Montez Sweat mid-season and it paid off - his 6 sacks in 9 games led the team. However, the fact that someone who only joined at the trade deadline led the team in sacks is a concern in itself. Turner had 10 sacks for the Crimson Tide last year and adds some juice to that unit.

 

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia

I had Bowers here in version 1.0 because the top two tackles were off the board. Since then the Jets have attacked their offensive line in free agency leaving them free to take Bowers here as an offensive match up weapon for Aaron Rodgers.

 

11. (From Minnesota via ARZ) Atlanta Falcons – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State

Having addressed Quarterback with Kirk Cousins the Falcons are the favourite to win the NFC South. However, they still have a need for additional pass rusher help. 37-year-old Calais Campbell led the team with 6.5 sacks in 2023, he is a free agent and hasn’t been replaced.

 

12. Denver Broncos – Bo Nix – Quarterback, Oregon

The Broncos are in a horrible spot. They have to get a QB (Jarret Stidham and Ben DiNucci are all that’s on the roster). They don’t have the capital to compete with other teams who might trade up; they don’t have a second rounder and can’t wait and hope to get one in round three and they can’t even trade back to maximise value because the Raiders, another Quarterback needy team, are right behind them at #13. I feel like they have to pick Best Quarterback Available at #12 and the consensus is that will be Bo Nix.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama

The Raiders roster is pretty bad. They could go almost any direction at this spot and there isn’t a single pick here that would surprised me. It could come down to interior defensive line or corner and I think that ultimately their need in the secondary is even greater.

 

14. New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State

The noises from inside the building sound like the Saints are done with 2022 first round pick Trevor Penning and now we learn that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s could miss the season with a degenerative knee condition. Fashanu would be an immediate starter at left tackle.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo

The Colts have a solid roster and have been quiet in free agency. But one obvious hole is at corner where return specialist Dallis Flowers, with five career starts to his name, is top of the depth chart opposite second-year man JuJu Brents. Mitchell is trending towards being CB1 and is a great scheme fit.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu – Offensive Tackle, Washington

I list Fautanu as a tackle but it is likely the Seahwaks would see him at guard where the interior offensive line needs significant work. This is becoming a popular mock choice not least because Fautanu’s college Offensive Coordinator, Ryan Grubb, now occupies the same position in Seattle.

 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jnr – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Jags added Devin Duvernay and Gabe Davis to Christian Kirk in their receiver room during free agency, but Calvin Ridley moved on. If Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold were here I might have gone corner but, in their absence, a big, fast, athletic freak of a receiver feels on brand for GM Trent Baalke.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Corner and receiver are possibilities (especially if they were to trade away Tee Higgins) but I still think the achilles heel of this team is their offensive line, especially with an injury prone Quarterback. They need a right tackle and they like bigger guys so Lathan fits the bill.

 

19. TRADE!! Dallas Cowboys – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia (Dallas gets #19 & #196 – 888 value; Los Angeles gets #24 & #87 – 895 value)

If this was a no-trade draft then Amarius Mims to the Steelers at #20 would be as close to a lock as it gets. They appear to have really focussed in on him for some time. However, another team that appear to love his skillset is the Cowboys and they showed when drafting Tyler Smith out of Tulsa two years ago that they are willing to take a risk on raw talent up front. Mims either starts in place of the departed Tyron Smith at left tackle and lets Tyler stay at guard or is an immediate upgrade on the right side.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

Pittsburgh drafted Broderick Jones last year and started him at right tackle as a rookie but they have one of the worst starting left tackle in the NFL. The plan is surely to switch Jones to the left in 2024 which would create a hole at right tackle that Fuaga would fill.

 

21. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

This is my wildcard. We know Mike McDonald loves speed on offense and while this feels like a luxury pick given their defensive needs and the fact they have Hill and Waddle already, good luck to the defensive coordinator trying to cover all three of them.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa

The Eagles secondary is a series of question marks. Veterans Darius Slay and James Bradberry struggled in 2023, Kelee Ringo made little impression as a rookie and their safeties were bad. They have brought back CJ Gardner-Johnson from Detroit but DeJean is a versatile playmaker who could become a mainstay on the back end.

 

23. (From Cleveland via HOU and MIN) Arizona Cardinals – Jackson Powers-Johnson – Center, Oregon

The Cardinals would have three firsts in this scenario which might give them the freedom to invest in the center position where they have long since had a hole. Powers-Johnson had an impressive week at the Senior Bowl and vaulted himself right into day 1 contention.

 

24. (From Dallas) Los Angeles Rams – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas

The Rams didn’t just lose a defensive tackle when Aaron Donald retired, they lost probably the greatest player in franchise history. While it is unfair to ask any rookie to come in and replace that level of impact Murphy is a good penetrative defensive tackle who will replace some of the pass rush juice they have lost.

 

25. TRADE!! Kansas City Chiefs – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona (Kansas City gets #25 – 720 value; Green Bay gets #32 & #95 – 710 value)

The Chiefs come up the board, but it is not for a wide receiver. They have tried the vet route to fix the left tackle spot, trading for Orlando Brown and signing a Superbowl winner in Donovan Smith. It might be time to draft a long term answer and Morgan is an out and out left tackle who excels as a pass blocker. He could lock down Mahomes’ blindside for a decade.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA

Latu is my #1 edge rusher in the class but the health concerns are likely to push him down the board. I have heard the Packers (who originally have the pick before this one) and the Buccs linked to him frequently so I feel like this is the range he comes off the board.  The Buccs lost Shaq Barrett in free agency so have a need.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State

This is a pick I’m leaving unchanged from version 1.0. In a world where the Cardinals have just the two first rounders unlike the three they end up with in this mock it is clear to me that they have to get a wide receiver and a pass rusher. Chop is raw, but his ceiling is high.

 

28. Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell – Wide Receiver, Texas

I can see a scenario where the Bills move from this spot, either up or down. But if they stay here I still think it will be a receiver. Mitchell’s tape is not as impressive as his combine numbers but the physical talent is obviously there. If the consistency in his play can follow he has true WR1 potential.

 

29. Detroit Lions – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois

This would be the steal of round one. I have a top 10 grade on Newton but possibly because he didn’t work out at the combine with injury or because he is from unfashionable Illinois he hasn’t had the buzz his talent deserves. The Lions have Alim McNeill and DJ Reader at defensive tackle, but they are both really 1 techs. Here is the interior penetrating 3 tech they require.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens – Graham Barton – Guard, Duke

The Ravens lost both starting guards in free agency – Zeitler to the Lions and Simpson to the Jets. They did draft Andrew Vorhees last year in round seven despite his ACL tear at the combine and he might step into one spot. Barton can arguably play all five spots on the line but would start at guard.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

I had Mims here in version 1.0 but this time it is Guyton who slides to San Francisco. The 49ers lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey in free agency last year and Guyton would presumably start there as a rookie but he might even be a long term in-house replacement for Trent Williams.

 

32. (From Kansas City) Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson

Green Bay have only spent one of their last thirteen first round picks on offense and that was when they drafted Jordan Love. No team has spent more recent first round capital on defensive backs, with five in the last decade. They have a need there again with the Jaire Alexander situation looking dicey and a hole opposite him.

[CNYfan]

Nice work, good reasoning and informative.  

 

[RobbRiddick]

I think worthy to dolphins is a good prediction.  As soon as I read about his speed and watched some tape I thought he had miami written all over him

[gonzo1105]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0, post free agency and with FOUR trades!!! Flame away!!

 

 

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC

It was a tentative pick in version 1.0, but trading away (maybe that should be “giving away”?) Justin Fields to the Steelers has set this in stone. Also, while I do believe the smoke that there are teams who don’t have Caleb Williams as QB1 the Bears are not one of them. He will be the pick.

 

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU

Teams have tried sniffing around the number 2 pick looking at trade possibilities and have been firmly knocked back – the Commanders are taking a Quarterback. I had Drake Maye here in version 1.0 but it increasingly feels like the momentum is behind Daniels to Washington.

 

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina

The trendy move here has been to have the Patriots trading out (normally with the Vikings). But I just don’t understand why they would do that. The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke as the Quarterbacks on the roster. They have to take a Quarterback and I believe they’d prefer Maye to Daniels in any event.

 

4. TRADE!! Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan (Minnesota gets #4 – 1800 value; Arizona gets #11, #23 & #167 – 2034 value)

Which means the draft starts here. Let me be clear I think #4 is too early for JJ McCarthy but it is the law of supply and demand. He seems to be the consensus 4th QB off the board and there as many as four teams potentially in the mix so if you don’t come up to take him here one of the others will. I suspect Minnesota are the most desperate and they have those two first rounders to dangle but keep an eye on the Giants as a dark horse for this trade because they have less distance to go to this pick and it would mean Arizona still gets one of the top two receivers at #6.

  

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Marvin Harrison Jnr, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

When Marvin Harrison Snr was an NFL rookie his Quarterback was Jim Harbaugh. In a scenario where the first four guys off the board are Quarterbacks the NFL will go full circle and in Marvin Harrison Jnr’s rookie season in the NFL his Head Coach will be Jim Harbaugh.

 

6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Giants have to add playmakers for their passing game whoever the Quarterback is. They have spent day two picks on Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt the last two years but so far the contributions have been modest. They need a legit #1 threat. Nabers can be used the way Brian Daboll used Stefon Diggs in Buffalo.

 

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

As I said in version 1.0 the Titans tried to get by with Andre Dillard at left tackle in 2023 and it was a predictable car crash.  This season is all about evaluating Will Levis for new Head Coach Brian Callahan and that starts with giving him protection. Callahan Snr is coaching the offensive line and will love working with Alt who is a mean, nasty plug and play left tackle.

 

8. TRADE!! Arizona Cardinals – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington (Arizona gets #8 – 1400 value; Atlanta gets #11, #90 & #186 – 1407 value)

We saw the Cardinals do this last year, when they traded back from #3 to #12 and then up again from #12 to #6. I think they want to sell #4 but also want to still snag one of the top 3 receivers which means getting ahead of the Bears and Jets. Odunze is an immediate upgrade for them.

 

9. Chicago Bears – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama

The Bears traded for Montez Sweat mid-season and it paid off - his 6 sacks in 9 games led the team. However, the fact that someone who only joined at the trade deadline led the team in sacks is a concern in itself. Turner had 10 sacks for the Crimson Tide last year and adds some juice to that unit.

 

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia

I had Bowers here in version 1.0 because the top two tackles were off the board. Since then the Jets have attacked their offensive line in free agency leaving them free to take Bowers here as an offensive match up weapon for Aaron Rodgers.

 

11. (From Minnesota via ARZ) Atlanta Falcons – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State

Having addressed Quarterback with Kirk Cousins the Falcons are the favourite to win the NFC South. However, they still have a need for additional pass rusher help. 37-year-old Calais Campbell led the team with 6.5 sacks in 2023, he is a free agent and hasn’t been replaced.

 

12. Denver Broncos – Bo Nix – Quarterback, Oregon

The Broncos are in a horrible spot. They have to get a QB (Jarret Stidham and Ben DiNucci are all that’s on the roster). They don’t have the capital to compete with other teams who might trade up; they don’t have a second rounder and can’t wait and hope to get one in round three and they can’t even trade back to maximise value because the Raiders, another Quarterback needy team, are right behind them at #13. I feel like they have to pick Best Quarterback Available at #12 and the consensus is that will be Bo Nix.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama

The Raiders roster is pretty bad. They could go almost any direction at this spot and there isn’t a single pick here that would surprised me. It could come down to interior defensive line or corner and I think that ultimately their need in the secondary is even greater.

 

14. New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State

The noises from inside the building sound like the Saints are done with 2022 first round pick Trevor Penning and now we learn that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s could miss the season with a degenerative knee condition. Fashanu would be an immediate starter at left tackle.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo

The Colts have a solid roster and have been quiet in free agency. But one obvious hole is at corner where return specialist Dallis Flowers, with five career starts to his name, is top of the depth chart opposite second-year man JuJu Brents. Mitchell is trending towards being CB1 and is a great scheme fit.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu – Offensive Tackle, Washington

I list Fautanu as a tackle but it is likely the Seahwaks would see him at guard where the interior offensive line needs significant work. This is becoming a popular mock choice not least because Fautanu’s college Offensive Coordinator, Ryan Grubb, now occupies the same position in Seattle.

 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jnr – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Jags added Devin Duvernay and Gabe Davis to Christian Kirk in their receiver room during free agency, but Calvin Ridley moved on. If Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold were here I might have gone corner but, in their absence, a big, fast, athletic freak of a receiver feels on brand for GM Trent Baalke.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Corner and receiver are possibilities (especially if they were to trade away Tee Higgins) but I still think the achilles heel of this team is their offensive line, especially with an injury prone Quarterback. They need a right tackle and they like bigger guys so Lathan fits the bill.

 

19. TRADE!! Dallas Cowboys – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia (Dallas gets #19 & #196 – 888 value; Los Angeles gets #24 & #87 – 895 value)

If this was a no-trade draft then Amarius Mims to the Steelers at #20 would be as close to a lock as it gets. They appear to have really focussed in on him for some time. However, another team that appear to love his skillset is the Cowboys and they showed when drafting Tyler Smith out of Tulsa two years ago that they are willing to take a risk on raw talent up front. Mims either starts in place of the departed Tyron Smith at left tackle and lets Tyler stay at guard or is an immediate upgrade on the right side.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

Pittsburgh drafted Broderick Jones last year and started him at right tackle as a rookie but they have one of the worst starting left tackle in the NFL. The plan is surely to switch Jones to the left in 2024 which would create a hole at right tackle that Fuaga would fill.

 

21. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

This is my wildcard. We know Mike McDonald loves speed on offense and while this feels like a luxury pick given their defensive needs and the fact they have Hill and Waddle already, good luck to the defensive coordinator trying to cover all three of them.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa

The Eagles secondary is a series of question marks. Veterans Darius Slay and James Bradberry struggled in 2023, Kelee Ringo made little impression as a rookie and their safeties were bad. They have brought back CJ Gardner-Johnson from Detroit but DeJean is a versatile playmaker who could become a mainstay on the back end.

 

23. (From Cleveland via HOU and MIN) Arizona Cardinals – Jackson Powers-Johnson – Center, Oregon

The Cardinals would have three firsts in this scenario which might give them the freedom to invest in the center position where they have long since had a hole. Powers-Johnson had an impressive week at the Senior Bowl and vaulted himself right into day 1 contention.

 

24. (From Dallas) Los Angeles Rams – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas

The Rams didn’t just lose a defensive tackle when Aaron Donald retired, they lost probably the greatest player in franchise history. While it is unfair to ask any rookie to come in and replace that level of impact Murphy is a good penetrative defensive tackle who will replace some of the pass rush juice they have lost.

 

25. TRADE!! Kansas City Chiefs – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona (Kansas City gets #25 – 720 value; Green Bay gets #32 & #95 – 710 value)

The Chiefs come up the board, but it is not for a wide receiver. They have tried the vet route to fix the left tackle spot, trading for Orlando Brown and signing a Superbowl winner in Donovan Smith. It might be time to draft a long term answer and Morgan is an out and out left tackle who excels as a pass blocker. He could lock down Mahomes’ blindside for a decade.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA

Latu is my #1 edge rusher in the class but the health concerns are likely to push him down the board. I have heard the Packers (who originally have the pick before this one) and the Buccs linked to him frequently so I feel like this is the range he comes off the board.  The Buccs lost Shaq Barrett in free agency so have a need.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State

This is a pick I’m leaving unchanged from version 1.0. In a world where the Cardinals have just the two first rounders unlike the three they end up with in this mock it is clear to me that they have to get a wide receiver and a pass rusher. Chop is raw, but his ceiling is high.

 

28. Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell – Wide Receiver, Texas

I can see a scenario where the Bills move from this spot, either up or down. But if they stay here I still think it will be a receiver. Mitchell’s tape is not as impressive as his combine numbers but the physical talent is obviously there. If the consistency in his play can follow he has true WR1 potential.

 

29. Detroit Lions – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois

This would be the steal of round one. I have a top 10 grade on Newton but possibly because he didn’t work out at the combine with injury or because he is from unfashionable Illinois he hasn’t had the buzz his talent deserves. The Lions have Alim McNeill and DJ Reader at defensive tackle, but they are both really 1 techs. Here is the interior penetrating 3 tech they require.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens – Graham Barton – Guard, Duke

The Ravens lost both starting guards in free agency – Zeitler to the Lions and Simpson to the Jets. They did draft Andrew Vorhees last year in round seven despite his ACL tear at the combine and he might step into one spot. Barton can arguably play all five spots on the line but would start at guard.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

I had Mims here in version 1.0 but this time it is Guyton who slides to San Francisco. The 49ers lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey in free agency last year and Guyton would presumably start there as a rookie but he might even be a long term in-house replacement for Trent Williams.

 

32. (From Kansas City) Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson

Green Bay have only spent one of their last thirteen first round picks on offense and that was when they drafted Jordan Love. No team has spent more recent first round capital on defensive backs, with five in the last decade. They have a need there again with the Jaire Alexander situation looking dicey and a hole opposite him.

Good work we def are much more in lock step on your version 2 than we were on your version 1 and it appears you have much of the same idea as I do so looks like needs and boards are narrowing and coming into focus 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Very well detailed and great work as always, Gunner. I look forward bto this every year.

 

I still don't see Nix as the Broncos pick at 12. Though I do feel he fits the system well. I have him as that QB we see every year that gets mocked really high and still see him there round 2. Your detail in the Raiders and Saints picks lend justification as to why even though both of them need a QB, they are likely to go another route themselves.

 

I don't think Nix is the QB the Raiders are looking at, either. My gut tells me Penix is their guy in round 2. I think the Broncos are primed for a trade back if one presents itself. 

 

If Denver passes on Nix and loses out on him, perhaps they pivot to Rattler. 

[LEBills]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0, post free agency and with FOUR trades!!! Flame away!!

 

 

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC

It was a tentative pick in version 1.0, but trading away (maybe that should be “giving away”?) Justin Fields to the Steelers has set this in stone. Also, while I do believe the smoke that there are teams who don’t have Caleb Williams as QB1 the Bears are not one of them. He will be the pick.

 

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU

Teams have tried sniffing around the number 2 pick looking at trade possibilities and have been firmly knocked back – the Commanders are taking a Quarterback. I had Drake Maye here in version 1.0 but it increasingly feels like the momentum is behind Daniels to Washington.

 

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina

The trendy move here has been to have the Patriots trading out (normally with the Vikings). But I just don’t understand why they would do that. The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke as the Quarterbacks on the roster. They have to take a Quarterback and I believe they’d prefer Maye to Daniels in any event.

 

4. TRADE!! Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan (Minnesota gets #4 – 1800 value; Arizona gets #11, #23 & #167 – 2034 value)

Which means the draft starts here. Let me be clear I think #4 is too early for JJ McCarthy but it is the law of supply and demand. He seems to be the consensus 4th QB off the board and there as many as four teams potentially in the mix so if you don’t come up to take him here one of the others will. I suspect Minnesota are the most desperate and they have those two first rounders to dangle but keep an eye on the Giants as a dark horse for this trade because they have less distance to go to this pick and it would mean Arizona still gets one of the top two receivers at #6.

  

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Marvin Harrison Jnr, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

When Marvin Harrison Snr was an NFL rookie his Quarterback was Jim Harbaugh. In a scenario where the first four guys off the board are Quarterbacks the NFL will go full circle and in Marvin Harrison Jnr’s rookie season in the NFL his Head Coach will be Jim Harbaugh.

 

6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Giants have to add playmakers for their passing game whoever the Quarterback is. They have spent day two picks on Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt the last two years but so far the contributions have been modest. They need a legit #1 threat. Nabers can be used the way Brian Daboll used Stefon Diggs in Buffalo.

 

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

As I said in version 1.0 the Titans tried to get by with Andre Dillard at left tackle in 2023 and it was a predictable car crash.  This season is all about evaluating Will Levis for new Head Coach Brian Callahan and that starts with giving him protection. Callahan Snr is coaching the offensive line and will love working with Alt who is a mean, nasty plug and play left tackle.

 

8. TRADE!! Arizona Cardinals – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington (Arizona gets #8 – 1400 value; Atlanta gets #11, #90 & #186 – 1407 value)

We saw the Cardinals do this last year, when they traded back from #3 to #12 and then up again from #12 to #6. I think they want to sell #4 but also want to still snag one of the top 3 receivers which means getting ahead of the Bears and Jets. Odunze is an immediate upgrade for them.

 

9. Chicago Bears – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama

The Bears traded for Montez Sweat mid-season and it paid off - his 6 sacks in 9 games led the team. However, the fact that someone who only joined at the trade deadline led the team in sacks is a concern in itself. Turner had 10 sacks for the Crimson Tide last year and adds some juice to that unit.

 

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia

I had Bowers here in version 1.0 because the top two tackles were off the board. Since then the Jets have attacked their offensive line in free agency leaving them free to take Bowers here as an offensive match up weapon for Aaron Rodgers.

 

11. (From Minnesota via ARZ) Atlanta Falcons – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State

Having addressed Quarterback with Kirk Cousins the Falcons are the favourite to win the NFC South. However, they still have a need for additional pass rusher help. 37-year-old Calais Campbell led the team with 6.5 sacks in 2023, he is a free agent and hasn’t been replaced.

 

12. Denver Broncos – Bo Nix – Quarterback, Oregon

The Broncos are in a horrible spot. They have to get a QB (Jarret Stidham and Ben DiNucci are all that’s on the roster). They don’t have the capital to compete with other teams who might trade up; they don’t have a second rounder and can’t wait and hope to get one in round three and they can’t even trade back to maximise value because the Raiders, another Quarterback needy team, are right behind them at #13. I feel like they have to pick Best Quarterback Available at #12 and the consensus is that will be Bo Nix.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama

The Raiders roster is pretty bad. They could go almost any direction at this spot and there isn’t a single pick here that would surprised me. It could come down to interior defensive line or corner and I think that ultimately their need in the secondary is even greater.

 

14. New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State

The noises from inside the building sound like the Saints are done with 2022 first round pick Trevor Penning and now we learn that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s could miss the season with a degenerative knee condition. Fashanu would be an immediate starter at left tackle.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo

The Colts have a solid roster and have been quiet in free agency. But one obvious hole is at corner where return specialist Dallis Flowers, with five career starts to his name, is top of the depth chart opposite second-year man JuJu Brents. Mitchell is trending towards being CB1 and is a great scheme fit.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu – Offensive Tackle, Washington

I list Fautanu as a tackle but it is likely the Seahwaks would see him at guard where the interior offensive line needs significant work. This is becoming a popular mock choice not least because Fautanu’s college Offensive Coordinator, Ryan Grubb, now occupies the same position in Seattle.

 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jnr – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Jags added Devin Duvernay and Gabe Davis to Christian Kirk in their receiver room during free agency, but Calvin Ridley moved on. If Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold were here I might have gone corner but, in their absence, a big, fast, athletic freak of a receiver feels on brand for GM Trent Baalke.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Corner and receiver are possibilities (especially if they were to trade away Tee Higgins) but I still think the achilles heel of this team is their offensive line, especially with an injury prone Quarterback. They need a right tackle and they like bigger guys so Lathan fits the bill.

 

19. TRADE!! Dallas Cowboys – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia (Dallas gets #19 & #196 – 888 value; Los Angeles gets #24 & #87 – 895 value)

If this was a no-trade draft then Amarius Mims to the Steelers at #20 would be as close to a lock as it gets. They appear to have really focussed in on him for some time. However, another team that appear to love his skillset is the Cowboys and they showed when drafting Tyler Smith out of Tulsa two years ago that they are willing to take a risk on raw talent up front. Mims either starts in place of the departed Tyron Smith at left tackle and lets Tyler stay at guard or is an immediate upgrade on the right side.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

Pittsburgh drafted Broderick Jones last year and started him at right tackle as a rookie but they have one of the worst starting left tackle in the NFL. The plan is surely to switch Jones to the left in 2024 which would create a hole at right tackle that Fuaga would fill.

 

21. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

This is my wildcard. We know Mike McDonald loves speed on offense and while this feels like a luxury pick given their defensive needs and the fact they have Hill and Waddle already, good luck to the defensive coordinator trying to cover all three of them.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa

The Eagles secondary is a series of question marks. Veterans Darius Slay and James Bradberry struggled in 2023, Kelee Ringo made little impression as a rookie and their safeties were bad. They have brought back CJ Gardner-Johnson from Detroit but DeJean is a versatile playmaker who could become a mainstay on the back end.

 

23. (From Cleveland via HOU and MIN) Arizona Cardinals – Jackson Powers-Johnson – Center, Oregon

The Cardinals would have three firsts in this scenario which might give them the freedom to invest in the center position where they have long since had a hole. Powers-Johnson had an impressive week at the Senior Bowl and vaulted himself right into day 1 contention.

 

24. (From Dallas) Los Angeles Rams – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas

The Rams didn’t just lose a defensive tackle when Aaron Donald retired, they lost probably the greatest player in franchise history. While it is unfair to ask any rookie to come in and replace that level of impact Murphy is a good penetrative defensive tackle who will replace some of the pass rush juice they have lost.

 

25. TRADE!! Kansas City Chiefs – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona (Kansas City gets #25 – 720 value; Green Bay gets #32 & #95 – 710 value)

The Chiefs come up the board, but it is not for a wide receiver. They have tried the vet route to fix the left tackle spot, trading for Orlando Brown and signing a Superbowl winner in Donovan Smith. It might be time to draft a long term answer and Morgan is an out and out left tackle who excels as a pass blocker. He could lock down Mahomes’ blindside for a decade.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA

Latu is my #1 edge rusher in the class but the health concerns are likely to push him down the board. I have heard the Packers (who originally have the pick before this one) and the Buccs linked to him frequently so I feel like this is the range he comes off the board.  The Buccs lost Shaq Barrett in free agency so have a need.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State

This is a pick I’m leaving unchanged from version 1.0. In a world where the Cardinals have just the two first rounders unlike the three they end up with in this mock it is clear to me that they have to get a wide receiver and a pass rusher. Chop is raw, but his ceiling is high.

 

28. Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell – Wide Receiver, Texas

I can see a scenario where the Bills move from this spot, either up or down. But if they stay here I still think it will be a receiver. Mitchell’s tape is not as impressive as his combine numbers but the physical talent is obviously there. If the consistency in his play can follow he has true WR1 potential.

 

29. Detroit Lions – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois

This would be the steal of round one. I have a top 10 grade on Newton but possibly because he didn’t work out at the combine with injury or because he is from unfashionable Illinois he hasn’t had the buzz his talent deserves. The Lions have Alim McNeill and DJ Reader at defensive tackle, but they are both really 1 techs. Here is the interior penetrating 3 tech they require.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens – Graham Barton – Guard, Duke

The Ravens lost both starting guards in free agency – Zeitler to the Lions and Simpson to the Jets. They did draft Andrew Vorhees last year in round seven despite his ACL tear at the combine and he might step into one spot. Barton can arguably play all five spots on the line but would start at guard.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

I had Mims here in version 1.0 but this time it is Guyton who slides to San Francisco. The 49ers lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey in free agency last year and Guyton would presumably start there as a rookie but he might even be a long term in-house replacement for Trent Williams.

 

32. (From Kansas City) Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson

Green Bay have only spent one of their last thirteen first round picks on offense and that was when they drafted Jordan Love. No team has spent more recent first round capital on defensive backs, with five in the last decade. They have a need there again with the Jaire Alexander situation looking dicey and a hole opposite him.

Nice job. I do think that is how the order the first 5 QBs and 3 WRs go - whether the Vikings go to 4 or 5 is the only question.

 

I like the Jets taking Bowers because ARod has never really used TEs in his GB offenses. Probably just because the best one he ever had was Jermichael  Finley. But the dream is for ARod to leave Bowers watching Allen Lazard getting targets rather than throwing to him. 
 

It’s hard to say where exactly he will go - maybe the Jets still - but I think Fuaga goes a little earlier than 20. 
 

I think Dejean may slip out of the first round since he is a bit of a tweener. And with the Eagles losing Fletcher Cox and both Sweat and Reddick not being happy I could see another DLine addition here as is the Eagles way.

 

As for the Bills pick, I agree I think they will pick a WR at 28. AD is lower on my rankings than others but if he was the pick I would understand it. He is excellent until the ball is in his hands which is very useful, just wish he was a bit better after the catch. I would be happy they got Josh a playmaker. Jer’zhan Newton is one of the guys I would take after my top 4 WRs are gone though so it would hurt to pass on him for AD.

 

Good mock as usual Gunner

[Westside]

I have to disagree. If Newton is still there Beane is taking him. Any receiver after the big three are 2nd round grades in my book and a reach for the Bills, especially Mitchell. You can get just as good a receiver as Mitchell by either trading up a few spots in the 2nd or taking the best available receiver at pick number 60. I can’t see them passing Newton for Mitchell. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Worthy going to Miami is    Not. Nice. 

 

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Westside said:

I have to disagree. If Newton is still there Beane is taking him. Any receiver after the big three are 2nd round grades in my book and a reach for the Bills, especially Mitchell. You can get just as good a receiver as Mitchell by either trading up a few spots in the 2nd or taking the best available receiver at pick number 60. I can’t see them passing Newton for Mitchell. 

 

Would much rather see DT in Round 4-5   (assuming the Longhorns are off the board at 28 and 60) 

 

Beane has signed 3 DT's if you include DaQuan.   

 

IMO he wanted to feel like the position is no longer a desperate need.  

Edited March 29 by Warriorspikes51

[TheBeaneBandit]

16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Worthy going to Miami is    Not. Nice. 

 

 

 

 

 

Would much rather see DT in Round 4-5   (assuming the Longhorns are off the board at 28 and 60) 

 

Beane has signed 3 DT's if you include DaQuan.   

 

IMO he wanted to feel like the position is no longer a desperate need.  

Slight smokescreen? Now I'm on the WR train baby but I could see Newton being the pick. Some will say you don't draft Ed Olivers backup in the 1st round but I think a man with Newton's talents the Bills would have plans for playing both of them at the same time on obvious passing downs. 

[TheWeatherMan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0, post free agency and with FOUR trades!!! Flame away!!

 

 

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC

It was a tentative pick in version 1.0, but trading away (maybe that should be “giving away”?) Justin Fields to the Steelers has set this in stone. Also, while I do believe the smoke that there are teams who don’t have Caleb Williams as QB1 the Bears are not one of them. He will be the pick.

 

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU

Teams have tried sniffing around the number 2 pick looking at trade possibilities and have been firmly knocked back – the Commanders are taking a Quarterback. I had Drake Maye here in version 1.0 but it increasingly feels like the momentum is behind Daniels to Washington.

 

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina

The trendy move here has been to have the Patriots trading out (normally with the Vikings). But I just don’t understand why they would do that. The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke as the Quarterbacks on the roster. They have to take a Quarterback and I believe they’d prefer Maye to Daniels in any event.

 

4. TRADE!! Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan (Minnesota gets #4 – 1800 value; Arizona gets #11, #23 & #167 – 2034 value)

Which means the draft starts here. Let me be clear I think #4 is too early for JJ McCarthy but it is the law of supply and demand. He seems to be the consensus 4th QB off the board and there as many as four teams potentially in the mix so if you don’t come up to take him here one of the others will. I suspect Minnesota are the most desperate and they have those two first rounders to dangle but keep an eye on the Giants as a dark horse for this trade because they have less distance to go to this pick and it would mean Arizona still gets one of the top two receivers at #6.

  

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Marvin Harrison Jnr, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

When Marvin Harrison Snr was an NFL rookie his Quarterback was Jim Harbaugh. In a scenario where the first four guys off the board are Quarterbacks the NFL will go full circle and in Marvin Harrison Jnr’s rookie season in the NFL his Head Coach will be Jim Harbaugh.

 

6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Giants have to add playmakers for their passing game whoever the Quarterback is. They have spent day two picks on Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt the last two years but so far the contributions have been modest. They need a legit #1 threat. Nabers can be used the way Brian Daboll used Stefon Diggs in Buffalo.

 

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

As I said in version 1.0 the Titans tried to get by with Andre Dillard at left tackle in 2023 and it was a predictable car crash.  This season is all about evaluating Will Levis for new Head Coach Brian Callahan and that starts with giving him protection. Callahan Snr is coaching the offensive line and will love working with Alt who is a mean, nasty plug and play left tackle.

 

8. TRADE!! Arizona Cardinals – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington (Arizona gets #8 – 1400 value; Atlanta gets #11, #90 & #186 – 1407 value)

We saw the Cardinals do this last year, when they traded back from #3 to #12 and then up again from #12 to #6. I think they want to sell #4 but also want to still snag one of the top 3 receivers which means getting ahead of the Bears and Jets. Odunze is an immediate upgrade for them.

 

9. Chicago Bears – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama

The Bears traded for Montez Sweat mid-season and it paid off - his 6 sacks in 9 games led the team. However, the fact that someone who only joined at the trade deadline led the team in sacks is a concern in itself. Turner had 10 sacks for the Crimson Tide last year and adds some juice to that unit.

 

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia

I had Bowers here in version 1.0 because the top two tackles were off the board. Since then the Jets have attacked their offensive line in free agency leaving them free to take Bowers here as an offensive match up weapon for Aaron Rodgers.

 

11. (From Minnesota via ARZ) Atlanta Falcons – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State

Having addressed Quarterback with Kirk Cousins the Falcons are the favourite to win the NFC South. However, they still have a need for additional pass rusher help. 37-year-old Calais Campbell led the team with 6.5 sacks in 2023, he is a free agent and hasn’t been replaced.

 

12. Denver Broncos – Bo Nix – Quarterback, Oregon

The Broncos are in a horrible spot. They have to get a QB (Jarret Stidham and Ben DiNucci are all that’s on the roster). They don’t have the capital to compete with other teams who might trade up; they don’t have a second rounder and can’t wait and hope to get one in round three and they can’t even trade back to maximise value because the Raiders, another Quarterback needy team, are right behind them at #13. I feel like they have to pick Best Quarterback Available at #12 and the consensus is that will be Bo Nix.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama

The Raiders roster is pretty bad. They could go almost any direction at this spot and there isn’t a single pick here that would surprised me. It could come down to interior defensive line or corner and I think that ultimately their need in the secondary is even greater.

 

14. New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State

The noises from inside the building sound like the Saints are done with 2022 first round pick Trevor Penning and now we learn that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s could miss the season with a degenerative knee condition. Fashanu would be an immediate starter at left tackle.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo

The Colts have a solid roster and have been quiet in free agency. But one obvious hole is at corner where return specialist Dallis Flowers, with five career starts to his name, is top of the depth chart opposite second-year man JuJu Brents. Mitchell is trending towards being CB1 and is a great scheme fit.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu – Offensive Tackle, Washington

I list Fautanu as a tackle but it is likely the Seahwaks would see him at guard where the interior offensive line needs significant work. This is becoming a popular mock choice not least because Fautanu’s college Offensive Coordinator, Ryan Grubb, now occupies the same position in Seattle.

 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jnr – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Jags added Devin Duvernay and Gabe Davis to Christian Kirk in their receiver room during free agency, but Calvin Ridley moved on. If Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold were here I might have gone corner but, in their absence, a big, fast, athletic freak of a receiver feels on brand for GM Trent Baalke.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Corner and receiver are possibilities (especially if they were to trade away Tee Higgins) but I still think the achilles heel of this team is their offensive line, especially with an injury prone Quarterback. They need a right tackle and they like bigger guys so Lathan fits the bill.

 

19. TRADE!! Dallas Cowboys – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia (Dallas gets #19 & #196 – 888 value; Los Angeles gets #24 & #87 – 895 value)

If this was a no-trade draft then Amarius Mims to the Steelers at #20 would be as close to a lock as it gets. They appear to have really focussed in on him for some time. However, another team that appear to love his skillset is the Cowboys and they showed when drafting Tyler Smith out of Tulsa two years ago that they are willing to take a risk on raw talent up front. Mims either starts in place of the departed Tyron Smith at left tackle and lets Tyler stay at guard or is an immediate upgrade on the right side.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

Pittsburgh drafted Broderick Jones last year and started him at right tackle as a rookie but they have one of the worst starting left tackle in the NFL. The plan is surely to switch Jones to the left in 2024 which would create a hole at right tackle that Fuaga would fill.

 

21. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

This is my wildcard. We know Mike McDonald loves speed on offense and while this feels like a luxury pick given their defensive needs and the fact they have Hill and Waddle already, good luck to the defensive coordinator trying to cover all three of them.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa

The Eagles secondary is a series of question marks. Veterans Darius Slay and James Bradberry struggled in 2023, Kelee Ringo made little impression as a rookie and their safeties were bad. They have brought back CJ Gardner-Johnson from Detroit but DeJean is a versatile playmaker who could become a mainstay on the back end.

 

23. (From Cleveland via HOU and MIN) Arizona Cardinals – Jackson Powers-Johnson – Center, Oregon

The Cardinals would have three firsts in this scenario which might give them the freedom to invest in the center position where they have long since had a hole. Powers-Johnson had an impressive week at the Senior Bowl and vaulted himself right into day 1 contention.

 

24. (From Dallas) Los Angeles Rams – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas

The Rams didn’t just lose a defensive tackle when Aaron Donald retired, they lost probably the greatest player in franchise history. While it is unfair to ask any rookie to come in and replace that level of impact Murphy is a good penetrative defensive tackle who will replace some of the pass rush juice they have lost.

 

25. TRADE!! Kansas City Chiefs – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona (Kansas City gets #25 – 720 value; Green Bay gets #32 & #95 – 710 value)

The Chiefs come up the board, but it is not for a wide receiver. They have tried the vet route to fix the left tackle spot, trading for Orlando Brown and signing a Superbowl winner in Donovan Smith. It might be time to draft a long term answer and Morgan is an out and out left tackle who excels as a pass blocker. He could lock down Mahomes’ blindside for a decade.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA

Latu is my #1 edge rusher in the class but the health concerns are likely to push him down the board. I have heard the Packers (who originally have the pick before this one) and the Buccs linked to him frequently so I feel like this is the range he comes off the board.  The Buccs lost Shaq Barrett in free agency so have a need.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State

This is a pick I’m leaving unchanged from version 1.0. In a world where the Cardinals have just the two first rounders unlike the three they end up with in this mock it is clear to me that they have to get a wide receiver and a pass rusher. Chop is raw, but his ceiling is high.

 

28. Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell – Wide Receiver, Texas

I can see a scenario where the Bills move from this spot, either up or down. But if they stay here I still think it will be a receiver. Mitchell’s tape is not as impressive as his combine numbers but the physical talent is obviously there. If the consistency in his play can follow he has true WR1 potential.

 

29. Detroit Lions – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois

This would be the steal of round one. I have a top 10 grade on Newton but possibly because he didn’t work out at the combine with injury or because he is from unfashionable Illinois he hasn’t had the buzz his talent deserves. The Lions have Alim McNeill and DJ Reader at defensive tackle, but they are both really 1 techs. Here is the interior penetrating 3 tech they require.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens – Graham Barton – Guard, Duke

The Ravens lost both starting guards in free agency – Zeitler to the Lions and Simpson to the Jets. They did draft Andrew Vorhees last year in round seven despite his ACL tear at the combine and he might step into one spot. Barton can arguably play all five spots on the line but would start at guard.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

I had Mims here in version 1.0 but this time it is Guyton who slides to San Francisco. The 49ers lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey in free agency last year and Guyton would presumably start there as a rookie but he might even be a long term in-house replacement for Trent Williams.

 

32. (From Kansas City) Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson

Green Bay have only spent one of their last thirteen first round picks on offense and that was when they drafted Jordan Love. No team has spent more recent first round capital on defensive backs, with five in the last decade. They have a need there again with the Jaire Alexander situation looking dicey and a hole opposite him.

Penix envy?  Most draft gurus projecting him to go first round after his pro day! 

Edited March 29 by TheWeatherMan

[SoCal Deek]

Very well done Gunner and much better descriptions than you get from most ‘professional’ pundits. 
 

Question: Which present or former Bills WR would you most closely compare Mitchell to? 

[frostbitmic]

I like the Mitchell pick to the Bills, at least he hasn't shrunk two inches like Franklin and Legette.

 

I see a lot of people that want Newton @28 but the Bills are already paying Oliver as the 3tech and drafting another 3tech in the first to play maybe 1/3 of snaps probably isn't the best idea. I think Newton will be long gone before #28 anyways.

[nosejob]

If I'm BB, I'M trading a 4th to TB and grabbing Latu.  If it weren't for the injury history...prior to 2 years of being the best DE in the country, he'd be a top 10 pick.

There's no DE even in the same ballpark. Diggs may have a pro bowl year and be back in 25. Miller won't. Latu would be a steal.

 

I could live with McConkey and Walker. Combining Latu with Groot and A.J while learning from Von...yum.

Edited March 29 by nosejob

[Coach Tuesday]

After yesterday I think Penix goes before Nix.  Much higher ceiling IMO.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

If my biggest gripe with a mock draft is using “Jnr” and “Snr” instead of “Jr” and “Sr”, then you did a good job. 
 

Would absolutely hate Worthy to Miami.

[RyanC883]

I think we take Newton over Mitchell.   WRs like Polk from UW or Burton from Alabama may be available in Rd 2. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Great work as always @GunnerBill. A few things, I can’t see Nix at 12. Denver may sell that pick off and go back. If he’s there at that point, fine. They could look at Penix too. It’s kind of like when the Bills took EJ. They had to get a QB but wanted more value so they went back.

 

I think Quinyon Mitchell will be the first CB off the board. 
 

I have been hesitant on AD Mitchell to the Bills because of effort and consistency concerns. Legette or McConkey feel like the targets (for different reasons). 
 

Overall, great job and logic.

Edited March 29 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Penix envy?  Most draft gurus projecting him to go first round after his pro day! 

 

He certainly could, but in reality 6 QBs in the first feels a lot. But there is still the Giants and Raiders there who I don't have taking one who could.

24 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

After yesterday I think Penix goes before Nix.  Much higher ceiling IMO.

 

Possible for sure. I have Penix as QB3 in my indicative grading but based on what people have been saying I think he is seen as a day 2 guy generally.

[CNYfan]

I am hoping Penix will be there at 28.  Maybe get a good price for the pick.