2024 WR Draft Class

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Great history and info here. You can read into this so many ways. My initial reaction is that this move was a decade ago. The game has changed and WR is now a flooded draft pool. Is there no history in this because it’s not wise? I think those top talents are game changers but how certain are they vs someone at 25 or 28? 
 

I think Beane looks at all the variables and decides the risks are not worth the reward here. Worse case scenario could be devastating to this team in Allen’s next 2-3 seasons, right within his prime. 
 

Can we compare Demitroff’s history to Beane’? I am not convinced that looking at a different GMs patterns would indicate anything as to what our GM will do. The best predictor of the future is past behavior, not your neighbors. Rare moves are the outliers, and I don’t think the state of the roster and with the other factors (talent pool, cost, risk) I would be floored if this happened. 

 

The reason I compared with Demitroff is to make the point that you don't need to have a history of outlandish moves to make a move like this. Indeed Demitroff's first round trade up track record was otherwise pretty similar to Beane's. 

 

It would, I agree, be an outlier move. And there may be good reasons it won't happen (quite apart from finding the right situation in terms of trade back partner is tricky) but it won't be "because Beane has never done it before." These moves are outliers that you can't predict based on previous behaviour.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Here’s a question. Let’s say we draft a WR at 28 and another in the 2nd. They both have average rookie seasons. Let’s say around 40-50 catches and 3-4 tds.

 

Are we set at WR in 2025?

 

[Kirby Jackson]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The reason I compared with Demitroff is to make the point that you don't need to have a history of outlandish moves to make a move like this. Indeed Demitroff's first round trade up track record was otherwise pretty similar to Beane's. 

 

It would, I agree, be an outlier move. And there may be good reasons it won't happen (quite apart from finding the right situation in terms of trade back partner is tricky) but it won't be "because Beane has never done it before." These moves are outliers that you can't predict based on previous behaviour.

I 100% agree that it’ll be tough to find a trade partner. I think though that it’s a very safe bet that they make the calls.

[DCOrange]

39 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Here’s a question. Let’s say we draft a WR at 28 and another in the 2nd. They both have average rookie seasons. Let’s say around 40-50 catches and 3-4 tds.

 

Are we set at WR in 2025?

 

Probably depends what those catches look like but I would lean towards yes.

[DapperCam]

I think I still want Xavier Worthy at 28 if we don’t move around. His speed is ridiculous and he’s an actual WR, not just a track star.

 

Imagine Allen using his full arm strength on a deep bomb and having a WR capable of actually running under it. We haven’t had that, so Allen has been under throwing his deep bombs (leading to some INTs).

[Kirby Jackson]

Posted this in another thread but thought it needed to be here too.

 

 

[gonzo1105]

24 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I think I still want Xavier Worthy at 28 if we don’t move around. His speed is ridiculous and he’s an actual WR, not just a track star.

 

Imagine Allen using his full arm strength on a deep bomb and having a WR capable of actually running under it. We haven’t had that, so Allen has been under throwing his deep bombs (leading to some INTs).

I just don’t think he’ll be there. I think the WRs with special traits are gonna go but it would be interesting to watch him with Allen for sure 

[Roundybout]

 

[MikePJ76]

Posted in another thread but here is Dane Brugler's draft for Buffalo where he has them taking Two WR.

 

Buffalo Bills

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

[Logic]

Regarding the "Trading up for Marvin Harrison Jr" talk...

I just keep coming back to the same few thoughts:

1. We've seen for several years now the same pattern: The Bills win the division, get a decent seed in the playoffs, and then what happens when they play the Chiefs or Bengals? It's the Josh Allen show, and no one else on the team steps up and makes big plays when the team needs it most. Whereas the Chiefs have Chris Jones and Travis Kelce stepping up, and the Bengals have Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins making big plays in big moments...when you close your eyes and try to picture someone other than Josh Allen making a big play in the divisional round, who do you picture? For me, the answer is "no one". That needs to change. We've seen what happens when Josh is surrounded by a handful of GOOD players. We have yet to surround him with some truly GREAT ones.

 

2. The Bills have been hitting singles and doubles in the draft for years now, but very few home runs. They have drafted good players, but very few STARS. I'm okay with them swinging for the fences this year to try to get our offense a STAR.

3. Fans (and teams) sometimes cling to draft picks too dearly. Let's suppose Beane trades all of his early picks this year and his 1st and 2nd round picks next year to move up. We don't end up picking again until round 5 this year, and we lack a 1st and one of our two 2nds next year. If the result of that is the Bills acquiring a potentially Hall of Fame level wide receiver to pair with Josh Allen for a decade, will anyone care a year or two from now? Are whatever strong safety and depth defensive end and second tier receiver you'd get with those picks worth more to you than a potential superstar wide receiver to pair with our franchise QB?

I'm sick of being risk averse, I'm sick of seeing no one other than Josh step up in the playoffs, and I'm sick of always clinging to our draft picks like precious gold. Gold can be traded for valuable assets, ya know. Like generational playmakers with HOF bloodlines.

Go get me one of the big three. Picks be damned.

Edited April 17 by Logic

[Roundybout]

 

Beane needs to get this guy on the team come hell or high water 

[DJB]

 

 

Moving up for one of the top 3 continues to make a lot of sense….

[MiracleAtRich1393]

Draft Legette at 28 and you have your height/weight/speed guy for the next five years, then use MN 2nd rounder to move up from 60 for Polk and you have a jack of all trades guy with a high floor. Both have great hands, both have dawg mentalities, both give you something you're missing. Set at WR for two years, go on a spending spree next year for high impact guys at other premium positions (like DE), then round out the rest of the roster with solid day 3 guys at S, RB, LB, IOL depth, etc.

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

Regarding the "Trading up for Marvin Harrison Jr" talk...

I just keep coming back to the same few thoughts:

1. We've seen for several years now the same pattern: The Bills win the division, get a decent seed in the playoffs, and then what happens when they play the Chiefs or Bengals? It's the Josh Allen show, and no one else on the team steps up and makes big plays when the team needs it most. Whereas the Chiefs have Chris Jones and Travis Kelce stepping up, and the Bengals have Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins making big plays in big moments...when you close your eyes and try to picture someone other than Josh Allen making a big play in the divisional round, who do you picture? For me, the answer is "no one". That needs to change. We've seen what happens when Josh is surrounded by a handful of GOOD players. We have yet to surround him with some truly GREAT ones.

 

2. The Bills have been hitting singles and doubles in the draft for years now, but very few home runs. They have drafted good players, but very few STARS. I'm okay with them swinging for the fences this year to try to get our offense a STAR.

3. Fans (and teams) sometimes cling to draft picks too dearly. Let's suppose Beane trades all of his early picks this year and his 1st and 2nd round picks next year. We don't end up picking until round 5 this year, and we lack a 1st and one of our two 2nds next year. If the result of that is the Bills acquiring a potentially Hall of Fame level wide receiver to pair with Josh Allen for a decade, will anyone care a year or two from now? Are whatever strong safety and depth defensive end and second tier receiver you'd get with those picks worth more to you than a potential superstar wide receiver to pair with our franchise QB?

I'm sick of being risk averse, I'm sick of seeing no one other than Josh step up in the playoffs, and I'm sick of always clinging to our draft picks like precious gold. Gold can be traded for valuable assets, ya know. Like generational playmakers with HOF bloodlines.

Go get me one of the big three. Picks be damned.

I totally agree with you, but I can't find a way to do it. The Vikings have two firsts in this draft and I think they will trade those plus a 1st next year to Arizona for 4. They will then take McCarthy who will bust, but I digress. You then have the Chargers at 5 with all the WRs still on the board. In order to get there, the Bills would probably have to trade 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st and 2025 2nd (from Vikings) and that still probably isn't enough. If it took 3 1st roud picks and two 2nds would you still want them to do that? 

[DCOrange]

Jermaine Burton is next up for Matt Harmon...looks like his profile will be posted today or tomorrow. The data is pretty good though. 3rd best success rate against man in the draft class, though he is tied with Nabers for 3rd worst against zone. 3rd best against press coverage as well and I know his hands are considered to be very good. Says based purely on film and his data, Burton would be a 1st round pick. Maybe bumped down to early 2nd round based on his off-field issues.

Edited April 17 by DCOrange

[Logic]

10 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

I totally agree with you, but I can't find a way to do it. The Vikings have two firsts in this draft and I think they will trade those plus a 1st next year to Arizona for 4. They will then take McCarthy who will bust, but I digress. You then have the Chargers at 5 with all the WRs still on the board. In order to get there, the Bills would probably have to trade 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st and 2025 2nd (from Vikings) and that still probably isn't enough. If it took 3 1st roud picks and two 2nds would you still want them to do that? 

I'm fine with the 1st and 2nd this year AND a 1st and 2nd next year, and later round considerations. 

Next year, the Bills would still have 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc...In a sense, they'd still have a pretty full allotment of picks.

This year, of course, they'd be picking only in the late rounds, and would likely get nothing more than depth players. Arguably, though, at all positions other than WR and safety, that's all the Bills really need. There aren't a ton of starting spots available on this team.

To answer your question: Three 1sts is too much for me, but I don't necessarily think that would be necessary.

I'm not adamant that they need to get all the way up to 5, or that the pick has to be MHJ. If, say, Nabers or Odunze falls to somewhere between picks 7 and 9 -- where I could see both the Titans and Bears being willing to trade back and collect more picks -- the trade becomes a little more achievable. And I'd still be quite happy with either of those two guys, particularly Nabers, who I think is the most perfect fit for the Bills of all the WRs in this year's class.

[DJB]

The more I think about it the more we aren’t taking a WR round 1 barring a trade up for one of the top 3 guys. 
 

The rest of the group have so many other issues with each prospect and we’ve brought in a bunch of round 1 guys that aren’t WR’s into the building.

 

Tells me that unless we get one of the big three , perhaps we move up a little in the 2nd to grab a WR which helps mitigate the risk/reward (with regards to draft capital if he busts)

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Posted this in another thread but thought it needed to be here too.

 

 

Sounds like a team wants him to slide to them.  Fluid guy with plus hands.  Best games vs best competition.  I think he is very much a possible target at 28.  

5 minutes ago, DJB said:

The more I think about it the more we aren’t taking a WR round 1 barring a trade up for one of the top 3 guys. 
 

The rest of the group have so many other issues with each prospect and we’ve brought in a bunch of round 1 guys that aren’t WR’s into the building.

 

Tells me that unless we get one of the big three , perhaps we move up a little in the 2nd to grab a WR which helps mitigate the risk/reward (with regards to draft capital if he busts)

I would than question what player available at 28 wont have a level of risk?  If they were clean prospects they would be top 5 or top 10 guys. 

[Teddy KGB]

On 4/12/2024 at 2:26 PM, MikePJ76 said:

I can not believe what people are willing to trade to move up for a wr.

 

Its total insanity to me.  

 

They absolutely can not move this years 2 in any scenario that doesn't give them a 2 back and eating Diggs cap number and being in this situation I think dictates they keep that 2 next year from the trade.

 

They need all the young affordable players they can get.  

 

I am hoping a EDGE rusher falls to them/a wr they like falls to them or they move back and get a 3 for this year or another high 4 and 5 for this year.

 

not hitting on a wr1 could also be seen as a fatal flaw 

 

the chiefs are adding wideouts 

[gonzo1105]

14 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Sounds like a team wants him to slide to them.  Fluid guy with plus hands.  Best games vs best competition.  I think he is very much a possible target at 28.  

I would than question what player available at 28 wont have a level of risk?  If they were clean prospects they would be top 5 or top 10 guys. 

Right everyone expects a clean 1,000 yard rookie who’s 6’3 210 pounds that runs a 4.3 who produced 3 years in college and expect them at 28 with no flaws. Rookie will be lucky to have 50 catches for 7-800 yards rookie year with the weapons the Bills have and yes they still have good weapons after Davis and Diggs departed 

[DJB]

Other than Harrison and Odunze,  Ladd McConkey as the safest WR to draft . 
 

At minimum you have a high end slot guy with good work ethic, character, ability to separate and hands. 
 

If he’s able to work as an outside guy then you will have hit a home run. 

Edited April 17 by DJB

[SWATeam]

4 minutes ago, DJB said:

Other than Harrison, Odunze is place Ladd McConkey as the safest WR to draft . 
 

At minimum you have a high end slot guy with good work ethic, character, ability to separate and hands. 
 

If he’s able to work as an outside guy then you will have hit a home run. 

I think the complete focus on an outside guy is overstated.

 

Yes, we need to replace Gabe.  But we also need to replace Diggs.  Made we get a Ladd or Pearsal early to play the Y and get an X later or via trade or something.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

5 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I think the complete focus on an outside guy is overstated.

 

Yes, we need to replace Gabe.  But we also need to replace Diggs.  Made we get a Ladd or Pearsal early to play the Y and get an X later or via trade or something.

Agreed. I think they want a WR room full of guys who can line up anywhere. 

[Mat68]

11 minutes ago, DJB said:

Other than Harrison, Odunze is place Ladd McConkey as the safest WR to draft . 
 

At minimum you have a high end slot guy with good work ethic, character, ability to separate and hands. 
 

If he’s able to work as an outside guy then you will have hit a home run. 

Availability is your best ability.  He has all the tools but has yet to complete a season.  Smaller guy often injured is not an ideal combination. 

[Einstein's Dog]

23 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Right everyone expects a clean 1,000 yard rookie who’s 6’3 210 pounds that runs a 4.3 who produced 3 years in college and expect them at 28 with no flaws. Rookie will be lucky to have 50 catches for 7-800 yards rookie year with the weapons the Bills have and yes they still have good weapons after Davis and Diggs departed 

I agree, risky and borderline unrealistic to rely on a rookie.  The safer play is to let Tenn grab one of the big 3 and then send a 4th for DHop.  That's the short term replacement for Diggs, and reasonable to expect similar production.  Then in the 1st two rounds grab a G Davis replacement, who can develop into much more.

 

If you grab 2 WRs in this class, the Bills would set themselves up for problems with offensive personnel in a few years.  All the youngsters would be coming due and in line for big money - Kincaid/Cook/maybe Shakir/Torrence/C Samuel/and now our new rookie WR.  Might be best to add another premier, high draft pick, WR in two years to have a staggered approach for long lasting contention.

[DCOrange]

32 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I think the complete focus on an outside guy is overstated.

 

Yes, we need to replace Gabe.  But we also need to replace Diggs.  Made we get a Ladd or Pearsal early to play the Y and get an X later or via trade or something.

I think that may be at least in part what Samuel is for.

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Here’s a question. Let’s say we draft a WR at 28 and another in the 2nd. They both have average rookie seasons. Let’s say around 40-50 catches and 3-4 tds.

 

Are we set at WR in 2025?

 

 

It depends.  If it seems like the overall offense is performing well and those guys are increasing their production throughout the season,  cutting down on mistakes and generally building momentum in the right direction,  yeah,  I think the Bills probably would be set at WR for 2025. 

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Jermaine Burton is next up for Matt Harmon...looks like his profile will be posted today or tomorrow. The data is pretty good though. 3rd best success rate against man in the draft class, though he is tied with Nabers for 3rd worst against zone. 3rd best against press coverage as well and I know his hands are considered to be very good. Says based purely on film and his data, Burton would be a 1st round pick. Maybe bumped down to early 2nd round based on his off-field issues.

The bolded is so interesting to me because Nabers crushed zone in YPRR (4.5) and Burton was at 3.2 YPRR vs Zone. Both were markedly worse in yprr vs man. 
 

Is it just that the QBs are throw them better balls in zone coverage, and struggling to get them balls in good position for bigger plays against tighter man coverages? And do big plays vs zone mask some of the down by down poor separation vs zone for Nabers and Burton?

 

Thanks again for posting

Edited April 17 by LEBills

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Roundybout said:

 

Beane needs to get this guy on the team come hell or high water 

 

My appetite for trading up starts at #9. If Odunze is still there I'd pull the trigger. Next year's 1st, next year's 2nd (from Houston), maybe both of our 4ths this year. Chicago only has 4 picks in the entire draft, they are a prime trade up candidate.

[SWATeam]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

My appetite for trading up starts at #9. If Odunze is still there I'd pull the trigger. Next year's 1st, next year's 2nd (from Houston), maybe both of our 4ths this year. Chicago only has 4 picks in the entire draft, they are a prime trade up candidate.

I know the Bears are light on picks but I can't see them passing up the opportunity to pair a #1 WR with their rookie QB

[KingBoots8]

26 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

My appetite for trading up starts at #9. If Odunze is still there I'd pull the trigger. Next year's 1st, next year's 2nd (from Houston), maybe both of our 4ths this year. Chicago only has 4 picks in the entire draft, they are a prime trade up candidate.

The 2nd we got from Houston actually belonged to Minnesota. If we have to include a 2 we would be better sending ours over and keeping that one if possible as it could be a very early pick.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

I think the complete focus on an outside guy is overstated.

 

Yes, we need to replace Gabe.  But we also need to replace Diggs.  Made we get a Ladd or Pearsal early to play the Y and get an X later or via trade or something.

I think they likely view Samuel as eating up the targets for Gabe. I know they aren’t exactly the same player but I think they likely view both Shakir and Samuel as splitting time in the slot and at the boundary. 
 

What they really need is a solid boundary WR who can efficiently take on 70-80 targets and turn that into 50+ receptions and 650-750 yards 5-6 TD’s. You are going to be then counting on Shakir having more production on better volume, Kincaid taking on a bit more in terms of 20 additional targets, and Samuel having a solid season taking the 70-80 targets Gabe has gotten in the past two seasons and making them more efficient.

 

 You don’t necessarily need a rookie to come in an replace all or most of Diggs production but just some of it. I then think adding a boundary WR in round 4-5 as depth rounds out the WR core as out probably need another pure boundary guy to spot start if needed

[OldTimer1960]

23 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I think they likely view Samuel as eating up the targets for Gabe. I know they aren’t exactly the same player but I think they likely view both Shakir and Samuel as splitting time in the slot and at the boundary. 
 

What they really need is a solid boundary WR who can efficiently take on 70-80 targets and turn that into 50+ receptions and 650-750 yards 5-6 TD’s. You are going to be then counting on Shakir having more production on better volume, Kincaid taking on a bit more in terms of 20 additional targets, and Samuel having a solid season taking the 70-80 targets Gabe has gotten in the past two seasons and making them more efficient.

 

 You don’t necessarily need a rookie to come in a replace all or most of Diggs production but just some of it. I then think adding a boundary WR in round 4-5 as depth rounds out the WR core as out probably need another pure boundary guy to spot start if needed

Just playing devils advocate- I don’t think Miami and its prolific offense have that big boundary receiver.  I’m not saying that the Bills shouldn’t try to find one, but I think there are successful offenses that don’t have that.

[gonzo1105]

6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Just playing devils advocate- I don’t think Miami and its prolific offense have that big boundary receiver.  I’m not saying that the Bills shouldn’t try to find one, but I think there are successful offenses that don’t have that.

There are a lot of teams who don’t have a traditional Z,X , Slot. 
 

Jaguars 

Commanders

Rams

Chargers had 3 X Receivers last year

Dolphins

Ravens didn’t have an X

Bears

Colts had two X WRs 

 

I could continue but you get the idea. This idea that you need to have a smaller guy and a bigger guy are so outdated. Someone else said it. Interchangeable parts that can play inside and outside to make defenses have to prepare for a multitude of packages and personnel

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

My appetite for trading up starts at #9. If Odunze is still there I'd pull the trigger. Next year's 1st, next year's 2nd (from Houston), maybe both of our 4ths this year. Chicago only has 4 picks in the entire draft, they are a prime trade up candidate.

 

Thing is if Odunze is there I don't think the Bears trade back. If he is gone I think they will. 

 

I think #8 is the target spot for Odunze.

[section122]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

I know the Bears are light on picks but I can't see them passing up the opportunity to pair a #1 WR with their rookie QB

 

They do have Keenan Allen and DJ Moore along with Cole Kmet.  Add in that they have Swift at RB and I think they have pretty good weapons already.

 

2 hours ago, DJB said:

Other than Harrison and Odunze,  Ladd McConkey as the safest WR to draft . 
 

At minimum you have a high end slot guy with good work ethic, character, ability to separate and hands. 
 

If he’s able to work as an outside guy then you will have hit a home run. 

 

Would you say he brings his lunch pail to work? A real first in last out kind of guy?  Maybe he's scrappy and sneaky athletic?  A real gamer? Plays the game the right way?

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, DJB said:

Other than Harrison and Odunze,  Ladd McConkey as the safest WR to draft . 

 

I wouldn't call him safe. He's been banged up quite a bit over the past few years. 

 

https://www.cover1.net/nfl-draft-injury-impact-georgia-wr-ladd-mcconkey/

 

It makes you wonder, can he hold up to NFL punishment?

 

And his ceiling is just very low IMO. If he stays healthy he probably has a high floor but I want more out of my 1st round pick.

 

That being said I would still prefer McConkey over say Chop Robinson. I would just want us to also trade up for a more physically gifted WR in the 2nd if he is our first pick.

 

Edited April 17 by HappyDays

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think I’m on the Ladd McConkey train. Get the best route runner available.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

I know the Bears are light on picks but I can't see them passing up the opportunity to pair a #1 WR with their rookie QB

 

They already have a #1 WR in DJ Moore. They have needs on both lines and at safety. I just can't see any GM feeling comfortable with 4 picks in an entire draft. I'll be surprised if they don't trade down with somebody.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

They already have a #1 WR in DJ Moore. They have needs on both lines and at safety. I just can't see any GM feeling comfortable with 4 picks in an entire draft. I'll be surprised if they don't trade down with somebody.

 

But Odunze isn't just a regular #1 prospect. Passing a player like that up for some picks is a mistake IMO.