Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I hope McD got a good look at Von’s tuneup game for the playoffs after sitting him last week and makes the smart decision to put Miller in moth balls the rest of the way. Might as well play 10 on defense for all of what Miller brings on the field at this stage. 

 

And the moment Bryant gets healthy, send Poona back to the inactive list as well. 

Poona has been good

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

A couple of early season blowout losses and a three game stretch with Mitch Trubisky will do that to you.  They are +37 over the past three weeks.

 

 

Rudolph has 3 passing TDs in 3 games.  The 2 in the Bengals games were for 86 and 66 yards.  I'm thinking the safety shell will keep

that from happening.  23 points home victory against the Bengals skews that.  7-point victory over Ravens 2nd stringers and 7 points over the 

sea chickens are the other 2. 

[K-9]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

Poona has been good

Sure, he’s been better than the load of crap he was playing like early in the year, but Bryant brings more to the table imo. 

[bills6969]

The Steelers advantage is they are playing with house money. They squeaked into playoffs when no one expected them to. All the pressure is on us to win.

[TheWeatherMan]

Steelers are the only team in the AFC to make the playoffs with a negative point differential.  We are playing at home and they are expected to be missing their MVP.  
 

I personally think this is the worst team in the playoffs.  Losing this game would be a major upset! 

[PBF81]

11 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

A couple of early season blowout losses and a three game stretch with Mitch Trubisky will do that to you.  They are +37 over the past three weeks.

 

23 of that 37 were against the Browning-led slumping Bengals in a home game though.  

 

Other than that they played a mediocre Seattle team and the Ravens JV team with Huntley.  The Seahawks and Bengals rank 25th and 21st in scoring D.  We rank 4th.  

 

Either way, make of it what you will.  The point is that historically on this season they're not a great team.  They barely edged the 9-8 Bengals, Jags, and Colts to log that 7th seed.   

 

The matchup seems to favor them however, the cold snowy weather in high winds.  They do seem to have a good secondary so there may not be much wiggle room for error on Allen's part, and if it comes down to which team runs the ball better, Cook who's averaged 3.6 YPC under Brady except against Dallas or Harris/Warren who are bigger backs, given that our rushing D is our weakness, it may be problematic.  

 

 

Edited January 8 by PBF81

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, ColoradoBills said:

 

Rudolph has 3 passing TDs in 3 games.  The 2 in the Bengals games were for 86 and 66 yards.  I'm thinking the safety shell will keep

that from happening.  23 points home victory against the Bengals skews that.  7-point victory over Ravens 2nd stringers and 7 points over the 

sea chickens are the other 2. 

18/20 for 134 yards when one of those plays was a 71 yard td against the ravens is the most nonsensical stat line I’ve ever seen.  Without that play (which assuredly would not have happened with Kyle Hamilton playing) he was 17/19 for 63 yards lol 

[Draconator]

 

[LABILLBACKER]

12 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

It did, by the end of it was so frustrated that we didn't let him throw it earlier.

You do realize the wind doesn't care how strong your arm is. It's going to blow the ball off course to some degree. Especially with how the wind swirls at Highmark.  For this particular game if it is 20-25, you gotta run and be willing to checkdown to pass plays under 10 yards.

[nucci]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

It’s officially playoff week!

 

TJ Watt, the Steelers best player, is NOT expected to play.

 

 

For the Bills:

- Rasul Douglas left the game with a knee, but was seen celebrating in the locker room. Could be he was simply removed from the game due to an abundance of caution. 

 

- Ty Johnson is in the concussion protocal.

- We don’t know much about Gabe yet.

 

- Dodson is a probable AC joint sprain according to BangedupBills on Twitter.

 

- Dawkins said his finger almost FELL OFF. I don’t know if that’s hyperbole or not, but we all saw the blood.

 

 

you don't keep a player out of a must win game for caution.....especially an abundance

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

This will be the Steelers 3rd road game in a row. Gotta think that wears on the team a bit:

 

 

Bills made it to the Superbowl as a wild card team on the road...plus not a really long flight from Pit to Buffalo

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

18/20 for 134 yards when one of those plays was a 71 yard td against the ravens is the most nonsensical stat line I’ve ever seen.  Without that play (which assuredly would not have happened with Kyle Hamilton playing) he was 17/19 for 63 yards lol 

 

Thank you.  That just adds to my observations.  Stop the run and keep the passes in front of you.

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

You do realize the wind doesn't care how strong your arm is. It's going to blow the ball off course to some degree. Especially with how the wind swirls at Highmark.  For this particular game if it is 20-25, you gotta run and be willing to checkdown to pass plays under 10 yards.

Good.  Because all Rudolph seems to be able to do is loft them deep to Pickens

[nucci]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Bad weather, going against a good defense and an underdog team with nothing to lose and a 3rd string QB...

To me, this has all the makings of an anxiety inducing, closer than it needs to be, can't exhale until the final whistle type of game. Not that the Bills have really played any other type of game for most of this season, but...

I hope I'm wrong. I hope it's a laugher in favor of the good guys. As it stands now, though, I'll say 20-17 Bills.

 

what do you mean they have nothing to lose? It's a playoff game they can lose

[RoyBatty is alive]

28 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yeah that arm really cut threw that wind in that NE game 🙄

It sure as heel wasn't Josh's fault.

 

We got WILDLY outcoached by Belichek,  what did mac jones, complete 3 Passes?  How do you lose a game like that, coaching.  Now in THAT particular game i blame it squarely on two people, McDermott and the OC for not using our QB competitive strength until the game was almost  too far gone and THEN Allen started to throw it.

Edited January 8 by RoyBatty is alive

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Good.  Because all Rudolph seems to be able to do is loft them deep to Pickens

 

Pickens didn't have a pass thrown his way last game and yet they won.  

 

So that would be incorrect.    

[Warcodered]

8 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

You do realize the wind doesn't care how strong your arm is. It's going to blow the ball off course to some degree. Especially with how the wind swirls at Highmark.  For this particular game if it is 20-25, you gotta run and be willing to checkdown to pass plays under 10 yards.

Josh was able to throw the ball in that game, they didn't do it until they had no choice and then it was like oh I guess he could have done it after all.

[Dillenger4]

The Steelers have a better D than Miami. Miami was "injured" last night and they gave us fits at times. I expect this playoff game to be a barn burner, low scoring game. Our main issue is Cook. He can't run up the middle vs good, beefy D lines like last night, like vs NE and the Steelers have a great line. Ty Johnson is most likely out - so it will be Cook, Lenny and Murray. That scares me.

Hope for Josh runs being effective and short passes to Diggs/Shakir/Kincaid. Steelers are no joke boys....

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

I hate these large point spreads and I still feel the Bills will make this game way more difficult than necessary even without a superstar like Watt playing for the Steelers especially since Rudolph is a much better '3rd stringer' than Skyler Thompson last year.

 

With that said, if Allen and this offense don't turn the ball over they likely win without needing the game going down to the final drive and minutes of the game. If not expect more of the same....and even heavier anxiety and dread heading into a possible divisional round match up against a familiar team.

I think people don’t really conceptualize point spreads that right way…they see the -9.5 on paper next to the smaller spreads for other games and theyre like oh wow the game won’t even be close but in reality you can have a 10 point game that’s really competitive the whole way 

 

to go a step further, -9.5 means they think they’ll get even betting between people thinking the bills win by more than 10 and people that don’t.  It doesn’t really mean Vegas thinks we’ll win by 10.  

 

it’s a big spread by nfl standards but when you compare it to those ‘alright this one team doesn’t have much of a chance’ type college games that are usually in the 20s it isn’t anything like that 

[LABILLBACKER]

7 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Good.  Because all Rudolph seems to be able to do is loft them deep to Pickens

I hope the reindeer is dumb enough to attempt a bunch of deep throws. It will favor our safeties. Josh completed 15/30 during that NE wind storm. There was no advantage. Hopefully the wind is under 20mph and we can take a couple shots. But the prudent strategy is run, throw short and no turnovers.

[RoyBatty is alive]

Just now, Warcodered said:

Josh was able to throw the ball in that game, they didn't do it until they had no choice and then it was like oh I guess he could have done it after all.

Agreed.

 

I vividly remember how giddy Belichek was after the game, he knew damn well that the better team lost and he stole one away from McDermott.  That is one game I will never forget.  One game I can never forget and blame is on McDermott.  Much like the KC-Bills game fiasco under Rex Ryan where he made multiple blunders including two poor challenges and two challenges he should have called.  Then the blowhard after the game stuck his foot in his mouth when he said after being an NFL HC for 7 years, didn't how how the replay cameras worked on challenges.  I was permanently done with Rex immediately after that.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Josh was able to throw the ball in that game, they didn't do it until they had no choice and then it was like oh I guess he could have done it after all.

15/30 and 50% is hardly ok.

[Pokebball]

4 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

The Steelers have a better D than Miami. Miami was "injured" last night and they gave us fits at times. I expect this playoff game to be a barn burner, low scoring game. Our main issue is Cook. He can't run up the middle vs good, beefy D lines like last night, like vs NE and the Steelers have a great line. Ty Johnson is most likely out - so it will be Cook, Lenny and Murray. That scares me.

Hope for Josh runs being effective and short passes to Diggs/Shakir/Kincaid. Steelers are no joke boys....

Pitts D took a huge hit losing Watt.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

20 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

23 of that 37 were against the Browning-led slumping Bengals in a home game though.  

 

Other than that they played a mediocre Seattle team and the Ravens JV team with Huntley.  The Seahawks and Bengals rank 25th and 21st in scoring D.  We rank 4th.  

 

Either way, make of it what you will.  The point is that historically on this season they're not a great team.  They barely edged the 9-8 Bengals, Jags, and Colts to log that 7th seed.   

 

The matchup seems to favor them however, the cold snowy weather in high winds.  They do seem to have a good secondary so there may not be much wiggle room for error on Allen's part, and if it comes down to which team runs the ball better, Cook who's averaged 3.6 YPC under Brady except against Dallas or Harris/Warren who are bigger backs, given that our rushing D is our weakness, it may be problematic.  

 

 

 

We add a running QB and Fournette and Murray for some additional oomph though.  

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

15/30 and 50% is hardly ok.

Yeah obviously it makes it worse, but he can still do it, deep balls are ***** gone anything your lofting is getting carried who knows where.

[Bferra13]

25 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Please Buffalo, let me have a nice comfortable Sunday afternoon.  Let my anxiety build up for the divisional round.

Living in Erie I just wanna stomp these guys. All these Piglet fans here are saying they got these best possible matchup they could ask for. Very annoying people.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

14 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

You do realize the wind doesn't care how strong your arm is. It's going to blow the ball off course to some degree. Especially with how the wind swirls at Highmark.  For this particular game if it is 20-25, you gotta run and be willing to checkdown to pass plays under 10 yards.

I mean I think you’re saying the wind does care by adding ‘to some degree’ at the end of that lol  a weaker armed qbs ball is getting blown off course much much more than a strong armed qb.

josh plays worse in bad weather it’s no surprise at all but that doesn’t mean the other guy he’s up against in that weather doesn’t play even worse than their normal compared to josh vs his normal.  He also runs like a fullback which makes bad weather tilt games his way too. 
 

[Dillenger4]

1 minute ago, Pokebball said:

Pitts D took a huge hit losing Watt.

Yes, but so did Miami's D losing Chubb, Phillips and Howard last night as well as a few DB's during the game. Didn't seem to matter as they gave us fits. We got the W, but all I am saying is Pitt has a beter D than Miami. They also have top 3 OL in the NFL. We need to be ready! We will be... but it's not a gimme game just because Watt is out.

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

The Steelers have a better D than Miami. Miami was "injured" last night and they gave us fits at times. I expect this playoff game to be a barn burner, low scoring game. Our main issue is Cook. He can't run up the middle vs good, beefy D lines like last night, like vs NE and the Steelers have a great line. Ty Johnson is most likely out - so it will be Cook, Lenny and Murray. That scares me.

Hope for Josh runs being effective and short passes to Diggs/Shakir/Kincaid. Steelers are no joke boys....

 

JJ Watt has been their entire D (stat wise).  His 19 sacks, 36 QB hits, 19 TFL, 4 FF, 1 INT, 1 TD plus tackles and passes defended have

been amazing!  Also having him on the field allows the remaining D to outperform.  His loss is HUGE.

Double team Highsmith in this game would seem the way to go.

 

Compare his D stats with the rest of the Steelers D.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/2023.htm

[That's No Moon]

19 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

You do realize the wind doesn't care how strong your arm is. It's going to blow the ball off course to some degree. Especially with how the wind swirls at Highmark.  For this particular game if it is 20-25, you gotta run and be willing to checkdown to pass plays under 10 yards.

It kinda does. It also cares how tight your spiral is. 20mph wind isn't that bad. Especially if it's steady. If it's gusty and unpredictable that's harder.

 

This will likely be one of those games where the team who can score going into the wind will dictate the game. I'll take Josh going into the wind thx.

 

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

I'm confused as to what it is that the Steelers do that we're so worried about?

They play football.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 minute ago, Dillenger4 said:

Yes, but so did Miami's D losing Chubb, Phillips and Howard last night as well as a few DB's during the game. Didn't seem to matter as they gave us fits. We got the W, but all I am saying is Pitt has a beter D than Miami. They also have top 3 OL in the NFL. We need to be ready! We will be... but it's not a gimme game just because Watt is out.

Not really the Bills punted once the whole game. The issue with the Bills is Josh’s issues with Gabe Davis and Cyrus Torrence forgetting that Christian Wilkins needed to be blocked  

[strive_for_five_guy]

4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

15/30 and 50% is hardly ok.

I can’t stand when people claim the wind helps us, since our QB has a better arm.  If our QB has a better arm is zero wind, that advantage lessens as there is more wind.  Using an extreme example, if the winds were 100 mph, neither QB would be able throw the ball forward, and both teams would be forced to run only.  Any wind starts to eat into the advantage of the stronger armed QB.

[That's No Moon]

1 minute ago, Dillenger4 said:

Yes, but so did Miami's D losing Chubb, Phillips and Howard last night as well as a few DB's during the game. Didn't seem to matter as they gave us fits. We got the W, but all I am saying is Pitt has a beter D than Miami. They also have top 3 OL in the NFL. We need to be ready! We will be... but it's not a gimme game just because Watt is out.

And if the Bills just took the FGs they'd have scored 33 on Miami.

 

I wouldn't say they gave us fits. We moved the ball pretty comfortably most of the night.

 

No game is a gimmie, especially this time of year, but I like our chances a lot. With or without Watt.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I mean I think you’re saying the wind does care by adding ‘to some degree’ at the end of that lol  a weaker armed qbs ball is getting blown off course much much more than a strong armed qb.

josh plays worse in bad weather it’s no surprise at all but that doesn’t mean the other guy he’s up against in that weather doesn’t play even worse than their normal compared to josh vs his normal.  He also runs like a fullback which makes bad weather tilt games his way too. 
 

I don't care about the other guy. I'll let McDermott dial up a good defensive strategy.  I do care about somehow reducing these incessant turnovers.  3 more last night with no wind. It's well documented Josh doesn't do that well in poor weather conditions.  I'm just saying tone down the deep throws some if the wind is above 20.  A 50% completion ratio doesn't get me excited regardless of his cannon.  Fix Cook's recent struggles. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, Dillenger4 said:

Yes, but so did Miami's D losing Chubb, Phillips and Howard last night as well as a few DB's during the game. Didn't seem to matter as they gave us fits. We got the W, but all I am saying is Pitt has a beter D than Miami. They also have top 3 OL in the NFL. We need to be ready! We will be... but it's not a gimme game just because Watt is out.

Watt means more to the Steelers than all those guys combined mean to the dolphins…if people cared about defense when they handed out awards he’d be the mvp every year lol 

 

the dolphins d didn’t give us fits we gave ourselves fits with terrible execution once we hit the Miami 35 yard line…we marched up and down the field on them all night.  

[JerseyBills]

I just can’t see Rudolph winning in this environment 

[Neo]

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

 

 

Run the ball well, hit some intermediate routes. Don’t turn it over, and trust your defense to stop Mason Rudolph in bad weather.

 

Change Rudolph to Allen and you have Tomlin’s opening remarks this week.

[That's No Moon]

3 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I can’t stand when people claim the wind helps us, since our QB has a better arm.  If our QB has a better arm is zero wind, that advantage lessens as there is more wind.  Using an extreme example, if the winds were 100 mph, neither QB would be able throw the ball forward, and both teams would be forced to run only.  Any wind starts to eat into the advantage of the stronger armed QB.

Yes, but the marginal difference is where. The game lies. The wind doesn't blow 100mph, it's going to be 20-25 and it's going to impact Rudolph or Pickett more than Allen. We've all seen noodle armed QBs try to play here when it's windy. Sometimes they were ours.

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

Living in Erie I just wanna stomp these guys. All these Piglet fans here are saying they got these best possible matchup they could ask for. Very annoying people.

 

My brother is a Steelers fan and the loser of this game has to adopt a 10 foot anaconda and have to feed it bunny rabbits in front of our kids.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I don't care about the other guy. I'll let McDermott dial up a good defensive strategy.  I do care about somehow reducing these incessant turnovers.  3 more last night with no wind. It's well documented Josh doesn't do that well in poor weather conditions.  I'm just saying tone down the deep throws some if the wind is above 20.  A 50% completion ratio doesn't get me excited regardless of his cannon.  Fix Cook's recent struggles. 

These weather talks always make me chuckle lol josh is literally the prototypical bad weather qb and I don’t even think it’s really debatable.  You’re worried because his stats get worse in bad weather and won’t even consider what that weather is doing to qbs that can’t throw 60 yard ropes or run like a fullback? 
 

the turnover points I totally agree with obviously but my response was to ‘the wind doesn’t care if you have a strong arm’ lol the wind absolutely cares