Wild Card Weekend - Wild Card Weather

[WEATHER DOT COM]

It's going to be very windy.

 

It might be pretty snowy. Will know more by the middle of this week.

[Big Turk]

Early forecast is high of 24 degrees with chance of snow showers and winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts most likely.

 

Storm system coming thru Saturday looks like it could set up the lake snow machine with backing winds behind it if other conditions set up favorably.

 

 

From Forecaster Discussion on NOAA/NWS Buffalo:

 

"The next feature of interest is a potent shortwave trough and rapidly intensifying sfc low tracking into the mid-Mississippi River valley Friday night. However...there still remains timing issues as the low pressure system steams ENE towards the Great Lakes region. Even so...given it`s current advertised track at the moment it looks like we will initially see a mixed bag of precipitation, that then quickly transitions over to rain. Saturday...the sfc low passes by to our west with a `much` (-15C to -17C) colder air mass rapidly advecting into the Lower Lakes. We might be looking at some decent accumulating snows this time for the tail end of the weekend. This would be for Saturday night through Sunday but this is way too far out to have any confidence given the lack of model run to run consistency. Stay tuned."

 

Edited January 8 by Big Turk

[Riverboat Ritchie]

I actually think the high wind could hurt us.  Pitt looked pretty good running the ball and with high winds we will need to also. Get it done. Go Bills. 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

I actually think the high wind could hurt us.  Pitt looked pretty good running the ball and with high winds we will need to also. Get it done. Go Bills. 

 

Allen can throw in the high winds we have seen reasonably well.  Rudolph I doubt can. Similar build and height/weight as Allen but lack of arm strength is why he fell in the draft to the 3rd round. Especially with how it swirls. Balls will sail or die in the winds and be prime INT targets.

Edited January 8 by Big Turk

[djp14150]

Lake effect bands may push snow to the far south towns with NW winds so not much in OP.

 

KC — partly cloudy temps around 20 at game time 

TB — could be a rainy game temps in 60s

DAL- dome

DET- dome

HOU— dome 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

Lake effect bands may push snow to the far south towns with NW winds so not much in OP.

 

KC — partly cloudy temps around 20 at game time 

TB — could be a rainy game temps in 60s

DAL- dome

DET- dome

HOU— dome 

 

Uh no...KC has a high of 14 and low of 4 on Saturday. At 8pm, temps likely in single digits with negative wind chills

[Simon]

20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

From Forecaster Discussion on NOAA/NWS Buffalo

 

That's exactly where I go to know what's up.

Their hourly graphical grid that goes out 4.5 days is usually very accurate also.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Looks like it is going to be windy no matter what. Sat, Sun, Mon all show 20-25mph wind. 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

That's exactly where I go to know what's up.

Their hourly graphical grid that goes out 4.5 days is usually very accurate also.

 

As someone who started off as a Meteorology Major for first 2 years in college but hated Math and Physics, I still love and read up on stuff regularly and am picking Donn Paul's brain regularly on twitter asking him stuff.

 

Appears to be a classic set up for potentially heavy lake snow if we don't get wind shears and/or injections of drier air

Edited January 8 by Big Turk

[transplantbillsfan]

Most important part of the forecast:

 

No TJ Watt!!!

[Simon]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

As someone who started off as a Meteorology Major for first 2 years in college but hated Math and Physics, I still love and read up on stuff regularly and am picking Donn Paul's brain regularly on twitter asking him stuff.

 

Appears to be a classic set up for potentially heavy lake snow if we don't get wind shears and/or injections of drier air

 

I'm a geek with it, too.

I'm actually on a sabbatical right now and have myself most of the way talked into heading down and trying my hand at chasing storms in the Alley for a couple weeks this spring. 

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I'm a geek with it, too.

I'm actually on a sabbatical right now and have myself most of the way talked into heading down and trying my hand at chasing storms in the Alley for a couple weeks this spring. 

 

I got accepted at the University Oklahoma for Meteorolgy but didn't go because they required all senior students to help out at the National Tornado Center in Norman and be storm chasers for a semester. I was like HELL NO! Wouldn't catch me dead out there doing that 🤣

 

Went to Saint Louis instead.

Edited January 8 by Big Turk

[Xwnyer]

Weather sets up for Steelers for sure.  They are a run first team plus that defense is top notch.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 hours ago, Simon said:

 

That's exactly where I go to know what's up.

Their hourly graphical grid that goes out 4.5 days is usually very accurate also.

The game is 7 days away... I thought with Buffalo weather you check 20 min before kick off...

[zow2]

No matter what, Allen is used to throwing in that stadium wind more than any opponent QB.  Plus the Bills D can be pretty nasty when they want to be (ie Dallas game).

 

BTW,  Tomorrow (Tuesdays) wind is supposed to be nuts and from an unusual direction, Southeast,,, therefore predicting even more downed trees than normal.

Edited January 8 by zow2

[Pete]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

I got accepted at the University Oklahoma for Meteorolgy but didn't go because they required all senior students to help out at the National Tornado Center in Norman and be storm chasers for a semester. I was like HELL NO! Wouldn't catch me dead out there doing that 🤣

 

Went to Saint Louis instead.

atmospheric physics is super heavy duty math.  Ive always been a weather nerd.  I have several friends even more into weather, who were better at math, had the passion, all had to quit their dream of being a meteorologist due to super difficult math.  Any meteorologist has my upmost respect.

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

This really sucks.  The bills playoff home field advantage is the biggest load of BS . We saw it on full force last year against the bengals. Bad weather evens the playing field and makes games unpredictable. Now because of this crazy weather Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at winning. If this were in a dome I'm not sure I'd give Pittsburgh much chance at all.

[HOUSE]

The Bills running game was horrible  last night. BETTER GET THAT FIXED IN A HURRY

Edited January 8 by Bogie_Klinkhammer

[Billsatlastin2018]

5 hours ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

I actually think the high wind could hurt us.  Pitt looked pretty good running the ball and with high winds we will need to also. Get it done. Go Bills. 

For decades,this is why I’ve been saying;

 

”Get a Kincaid!”

 

Big, tall target in wind and snow.

[UKBillFan]

I think I’d be more confident playing the Fins again (even that’d mean yesterday was a loss) in Miami than Pittsburgh at home for this reason. The wind game of 2021 looms large and Pittsburgh have both a better run game and defense, even without Watt, than the Pats did. Admittedly, the Bills run game has been better, particularly since Brady took over, but it struggled yesterday. If the Bills lose the turnover the battle, they lose the game.

[bills6969]

Eww.  I hope the weather isn’t a repeat of the Pats game from last year (or the year before?)

[SoCal Deek]

Quick…..Somebody drive over to the construction site and see if those guys can get those infamous wind confusers erected by this Sunday. 

[Gregg]

2 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Weather sets up for Steelers for sure.  They are a run first team plus that defense is top notch.

 

Losing Watt is a big loss for that defense. He is a "game changer" type of player. 

[Bferra13]

I'm no meteorologist, but isn't it a bit early to be forecasting winds??

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

I'm no meteorologist, but isn't it a bit early to be forecasting winds??

I'd guess Thursday night-Friday morning is when the % of accuracy in forecasting goes way up 

we had a few games this year where the original forecast was very windy and then it was nothing.  So, we'll see

[nedboy7]

Too soon to bring up the dome discussion?

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

Not sure about the weather, but Bills fans should prepare for a lot of Terrible Towels. I bet there will be 30% or more Steelers fans.

[Fan in Chicago]

7 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I'm a geek with it, too.

I'm actually on a sabbatical right now and have myself most of the way talked into heading down and trying my hand at chasing storms in the Alley for a couple weeks this spring. 

My guess is that with your two favorite teams playing this weekend, you aren't doing much of anything till Sunday. Except stomping the ground in excitement. Amirite? 

[Simon]

7 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

My guess is that with your two favorite teams playing this weekend, you aren't doing much of anything till Sunday. Except stomping the ground in excitement. Amirite? 

Weird situation for me.

Was looking into grabbing a couple good seats and heading up for a playoff game for the first time in ages, but staying here and hanging out with all my Stiller fans and torturing them is too rare an opportunity to pass up.

Then 5 minutes ago my wife and I just tested positive for Covid. 

[Process]

Looks like a cold pattern is starting on Sunday until at least the following weekend. High all week is 28 degrees. Could be bad weather for both games. 

 

Could definitely help vs Texans in round 2, vs KC and Pittsburgh not so much. 

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

atmospheric physics is super heavy duty math.  Ive always been a weather nerd.  I have several friends even more into weather, who were better at math, had the passion, all had to quit their dream of being a meteorologist due to super difficult math.  Any meteorologist has my upmost respect.

 

Yup that's why I switched majors after 2 years. Walked into a class where there was just a senior level class beforehand and saw an equation for one variable that you had to figure out by hand that went across a triple blackboard 3 times. I was like I'm out.

4 minutes ago, Process said:

Looks like a cold pattern is starting on Sunday until at least the following weekend. High all week is 28 degrees. Could be bad weather for both games. 

 

Could definitely help vs Texans in round 2, vs KC and Pittsburgh not so much. 

 

Our record "warm" temp streak in danger of coming to an end...continue to extend the all time record for most consecutive days without a temp under 20 degrees. Around 318 days now, broke the record at 306 in late December.

 

Last day under 20 was when it got down to 16 degrees Feb 23 of last year.

 

Looks like we have a few days temps dropping into the teens potentially coming up after this week.

3 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Weather sets up for Steelers for sure.  They are a run first team plus that defense is top notch.

 

Not without TJ Watt it isn't.

Edited January 8 by Big Turk

[Big Turk]

21 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Not sure about the weather, but Bills fans should prepare for a lot of Terrible Towels. I bet there will be 30% or more Steelers fans.

 

Unlikely. We are not Miami.

Edited January 8 by Big Turk

[Toledo Bill]

2 hours ago, Bogie_Klinkhammer said:

The Bills running game was horrible  last night. BETTER GET THAT FIXED IN A HURRY

Was the Dallas game an anomaly? They suck against the run and we have not been overly impressive running since then.

[Big Turk]

47 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

I'm no meteorologist, but isn't it a bit early to be forecasting winds??

 

Not really because if there is a sharp temperature change there are almost always relatively stronger winds.

Edited January 8 by Big Turk

[BillsPride12]

This makes me grateful we've got Daquan Jones back 

[Bferra13]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not really because if there is a sharp temperature change there are almost always relatively stronger winds.

That makes sense. And temps a lot easier to forecast so it goes hand in hand. Thanks! 

[The Frankish Reich]

5 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:

This makes me grateful we've got Daquan Jones back 

True. He has his own gravitational force that is unlikely to be impacted by a silly thing like wind.

[PaattMaann]

15 minutes ago, Toledo Bill said:

Was the Dallas game an anomaly? They suck against the run and we have not been overly impressive running since then.

 

we put up the most rushing yards that the Patriots allowed all season just last week. Rushing attack is solid. 

[Fan in Chicago]

23 minutes ago, Simon said:

Weird situation for me.

Was looking into grabbing a couple good seats and heading up for a playoff game for the first time in ages, but staying here and hanging out with all my Stiller fans and torturing them is too rare an opportunity to pass up.

Then 5 minutes ago my wife and I just tested positive for Covid. 

Bummer. 

Playing this out now and based on my recent experience, you should see symptoms for 3 days and then start recovering. Then you should be testing negative by Friday. I understand you being respectful of your friends' health, but you should be still okay to see the game live. No?

Granted it would be much more fun to laugh at your Steelers friends as their team is getting trampled ( I really think this will be a blowout unless the weather forces teams to be conservative in the passing game)

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Bummer. 

Playing this out now and based on my recent experience, you should see symptoms for 3 days and then start recovering. Then you should be testing negative by Friday. I understand you being respectful of your friends' health, but you should be still okay to see the game live. No?

Granted it would be much more fun to laugh at your Steelers friends as their team is getting trampled ( I really think this will be a blowout unless the weather forces teams to be conservative in the passing game)

 

Already got hammered by the symptoms last week. Only bothered testing because my wife started getting sick last night and insisted, otherwise I would have never even known.

And I'm a little spooked by the Stiller game. We have some issues with 3-4 fronts and Pittsburgh has taken advantage of that in the past. Their rungame is also finding a bit of a groove which is the only good way for them to limit Josh Allen's touches and with their knack for making ugly games and then stealing them, there's some potential for some discomfort there. If weather becomes a factor it could exacerbate all these issues and there is also some potential for that to be the case as well.

Regardless of any of it, we shall continue with style. 🤙