AFC Standings, schedules, & Rooting Interests FINAL 1/7/24 BILLS 2 Seed!

[Lost]

10 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I was listening to ESPN radio on the way to work this evening (penance for something really bad that I did) and they were really talking up the Browns' playoff chances because Flacco was now their QB.

 

Flacco?

 

Like I said, it was ESPN...

 

Flacco is 3rd in yards per game currently.  

[Inigo Montoya]

Just now, Lost said:

 

Flacco is 3rd in yards per game currently.  

 

No doubt he's played well but he's a statue and at 84 years old he's one defensive end or blitzing DB away from hospice care.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said:

When you do the ESPN playoff machine they miss out at 10-7 for a wildcard. 

 

This is because you’re not estimating every game. You’re only picking a random game for the Bills to lose.

 

Browns will be in, but I have a hard time believing the Bengals don’t lose to the Chiefs and Browns.

[fan_in_tx]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

 

Flacco is 3rd in yards per game currently.  

Would have been better off bringing in Cam for a look..

[strive_for_five_guy]

8 hours ago, Einstein said:

That Miami loss was so huge.

Even if we lost the Dallas game (which we won’t) our odds rose to 83%.
 

What are our odds if we win the next three, but lose to Dolphins?  Just curious how much the Dolphins game is influencing our odds.

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

What are our odds if we win the next three, but lose to Dolphins?  Just curious how much the Dolphins game is influencing our odds.

 

62% to make playoffs.

[strive_for_five_guy]

14 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

If Miami loses to the Jets, that would initiate another late season free fall for Miami. If they fall to the Titans, Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills, they could miss the playoffs entirely 

If Miami loses to the Jets, definitely see the free fall happening for them.  They’ll be 9-7 by the time they head into Week 18 against us.  Even then, we’d be 10-6 at best, and would still need to beat them for the division.  Depending on WC tiebreakers, winning the division could be the only way in for both of us.  The networks would love that as the Sunday night game.

 

[zow2]

Like Dobbs, i feel like these upstart QBs that have been massively overachieving (Flacco, Browning, Stroud, Minshew) are going to start regressing to what they should be. Stroud already had a setback last week, we’ve already seen Trubisky struggle mightily.

 

I only put Stroud in that group because he’s a rookie.  He looks like a very solid QB as his career progresses.

Edited December 13, 2023 by zow2

[TheyCallMeAndy]

11 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

There is a persistent belief that if that play stood KC wins.  There was still time in the game and the Bills might have scored for the win.  I agree that for once the Bills were on the lucky side of a stupid penalty.  It was about time for the Bills to get one.

KC and the Almighty still had 2 more shots and failed as well. Bills made some big defensive plays. 

[Captain Hindsight]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

If Miami loses to the Jets, definitely see the free fall happening for them.  They’ll be 9-7 by the time they head into Week 18 against us.  Even then, we’d be 10-6 at best, and would still need to beat them for the division.  Depending on WC tiebreakers, winning the division could be the only way in for both of us.  The networks would love that as the Sunday night game.

 

I am already assuming that’s the Sunday night game. I’m sure that was the NFLs goal when they made the schedule. 
 

 

[RobbRiddick]

3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

No doubt he's played well but he's a statue and at 84 years old he's one defensive end or blitzing DB away from hospice care.

 

It's a 'retirement community'

 

[QCity]

3 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Question about the various “playoff machines”. Everyone talks about them in terms of “odds” of making playoffs. 
 

I haven’t researched the machines, but assume they are just taking all the possible outcomes of the remaining games and calculating how many of those end up with the Bills being in the playoffs, is that correct?  

 

So, in that sense it’s not really “odds” (like betting odds) because I imagine some of those outcomes are very unlikely, for example Baltimore losing out, etc. 

 

Do any of the machines actually attempt to incorporate some type of actual odds that acknowledge some scenarios are more likely than others? For example, giving more weight to teams with better records beating teams with worse records.  

 

SportsClubStats is what you want. Whenever you use a "playoff machine" you are adding user bias when you try to pick winners. Of course you only get a few simulations generated too, where this site will run billions. If you don't pick any other games, the NYT uses an ELO rating for teams similar to chess ratings, and SportsClubStats takes into account rudimentary things like team record and home field advantage. Neither are perfect of course.

 

That site will also give weekly rooting interests with percentage changes for wins/losses/ties for every game.

[cgg716]

On 12/12/2023 at 9:48 AM, Scott7975 said:

 

Penalties are part of the game.  KC blew it Sunday.  Honestly Toney should have been called for illegal pick as well as he barreled into the defender that was going to cover Kelce like 10 yards downfield. Thats why Kelce was so open to begin with. The right guard was also too far off the line.  These guys just get away with ***** all the time.  Thats 3 things in that play.  Penalties are penalties.  The D also stopped them from gaining another yard on 3 straight downs.  KC only needed maybe 5 yards to try a fg.  They lost their cool and kept trying to pick up the 15 yards for a first down with deep plays.

The defense still gave that up, as they always do, were fortunate to get a penalty but were well on their way to folding like a cheap suit 

[Captain Hindsight]

15 hours ago, Lost said:

 

Flacco is 3rd in yards per game currently.  

Just shows how bad the Jets coaching staff is. With similar talent at the skill positions he is averaging 100 more yards per game after sitting out for the 1st 3 months of the season. Stefanski is a really smart offensive mind 

[kkim0904]

I will be rooting hard for Jets remainder of the season.  They beat Texans.  They will play Miami, then in 2 weeks they are against Cleveland.

[cgg716]

13 hours ago, zow2 said:

Like Dobbs, i feel like these upstart QBs that have been massively overachieving (Flacco, Browning, Stroud, Minshew) are going to start regressing to what they should be. Stroud already had a setback last week, we’ve already seen Trubisky struggle mightily.

 

I only put Stroud in that group because he’s a rookie.  He looks like a very solid QB as his career progresses.

I think Browning should continue at a level high enough to win them games, elite weapons, friendly schedule

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, cgg716 said:

The defense still gave that up, as they always do, were fortunate to get a penalty but were well on their way to folding like a cheap suit 

 

Yeah they gave it up because the offside guy Toney bull rushed into and took out two defenders on the field.  One of them the guy that was covering Kelce and the dude still almost caught up to him.

[Donuts and Doritos]

Week 15 Rooting for:

Jets 

Bears

Titans

Lions (need this as Broncos reminding schedule is cake)

Vikings

Colts/Steelers (appears to be pick em)

DA BILLS!

[Pete]

On 12/13/2023 at 11:32 AM, kkim0904 said:

I will be rooting hard for Jets remainder of the season.  They beat Texans.  They will play Miami, then in 2 weeks they are against Cleveland.

Not to mention, they will mess up their draft slot.  Go Jets the next 4 games

[Xwnyer]

Only way we get in is running the table and having Fins drop 3 of 4.

[Mike R]

The Bills conference record makes it tough to get in. It’s their own fault losing to the likes of the Patriots, Broncos, and Jets. Just win out. A loss to only the Cowboys and they have a chance with help.

[BillsFan619]

4 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Only way we get in is running the table and having Fins drop 3 of 4.

There’s lots of ways for us to get in, but in your scenario, the Phins only need to drop two of four because we would own the tie breaker over them.

 

Go Bills!

[Success]

5 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Only way we get in is running the table and having Fins drop 3 of 4.

 

If we run the table, we're in.  I think even 10-7 is 50/50.

 

People are overestimating the teams ahead of us & tied w/ us.  

[kkim0904]

This is tough one.  Pittsburg vs Colts.  Pittsburg is ahead of Colts in Tiebreaker.   The game will start soon, It is hard to pick the side.  Any thoughts?

 

[Jrb1979]

3 hours ago, Success said:

 

If we run the table, we're in.  I think even 10-7 is 50/50.

 

People are overestimating the teams ahead of us & tied w/ us.  

People are also overestimating the Bills as well. 

[Donuts and Doritos]

Vikings are worthless. Bengals are in the playoffs as the 6 seed, for now. Either Pitt or Colts will pass them today.

[Beast]

Going to need be be division champs or bust.

[CSBill]

Stinking Vikings, they gave that one away. 

[vanislebills44]

i honestly think its division or bust..game aint over but if the colts win they got an easy sked, ditto with the browns...mayyybe if the broncos lose n we beat dallas we can get in there....

 

[Toledo Bill]

1 hour ago, CSBill said:

Stinking Vikings, they gave that one away. 

Talk about pathetic QB sneaks 😡

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, Success said:

 

If we run the table, we're in.  I think even 10-7 is 50/50.

 

People are overestimating the teams ahead of us & tied w/ us.  

 

No people are not overestimating the teams ahead or tied with us.  Browns have a lot of talent and are fine with a game manager.  Same goes for the Bengals.  They also don't play much of anybody.  We aren't getting in at 10-7 unless we win the division with that record.

[ChasBB]

9 hours ago, Mike R said:

... "Just win out". ...

Says it all!  Take care of all business ahead and tie-breakers become a little less crucial.

[No_Matter_What]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

No people are not overestimating the teams ahead or tied with us.  Browns have a lot of talent and are fine with a game manager.  Same goes for the Bengals.  They also don't play much of anybody.  We aren't getting in at 10-7 unless we win the division with that record.

I don't get definitive statements like this. There are A LOT of scenarios when we get in at 10-7, esp. if 7th loss is against Cowboys. Even if Broncos win tonight and Dolphins are going 3-1, we have over 50% chance to get in at 10-7 (Cowboys loss).

Edited December 17, 2023 by No_Matter_What

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

12 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

No people are not overestimating the teams ahead or tied with us.  Browns have a lot of talent and are fine with a game manager.  Same goes for the Bengals.  They also don't play much of anybody.  We aren't getting in at 10-7 unless we win the division with that record.

miami at 9-4 right now. could they have a collapse, maybe win one more and they face each other, both 10-6 for the division week 17?

 

not likely but stranger things have happened. nfl is so unpredictable, especially with the refs hands in it.
 

Edited December 17, 2023 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[gonzo1105]

Could really use a Bears win over Cleveland tomorrow to bunch things up even more. We don’t need a team breaking from the pack unless it’s against other contenders 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

9 hours ago, Mike R said:

The Bills conference record makes it tough to get in. It’s their own fault losing to the likes of the Patriots, Broncos, and Jets. Just win out. A loss to only the Cowboys and they have a chance with help.

Cincy has a worse conference record and in a three way tie the head to head may not apply 

 

pit,Houston, and some others will likely have a worse conference record than us.  The Denver game tonight is a lot bigger than cincy imo 

 

‘they have a chance’ at 10-7 is kind of underselling it…it is very very likely the bills get in at 10-7

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

Could really use a Bears win over Cleveland tomorrow to bunch things up even more. We don’t need a team breaking from the pack unless it’s against other contenders 

I’d argue 1-2 teams breaking away could be a good thing because all these teams play eachother.  Browns losing to the bears is free help though no question

 

but if for example the browns get hot and win out, they’re knocking the Texans and bengals back a game and only taking up one playoff spot.

 

[Donuts and Doritos]

Bills move to 10th spot w/ Steelers loss. Go Lions!

 

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by Donuts and Doritos

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

I don't get definitive statements like this. There are A LOT of scenarios when we get in at 10-7, esp. if 7th loss is against Cowboys. Even if Broncos win tonight and Dolphins are going 3-1, we have over 50% chance to get in at 10-7 (Cowboys loss).

 

and there are equally as many scenarios that we don't.  Those aren't good odds.  When you have to rely on say specific 4 games going exactly your way in any given scenario... that's not good odds.  I'm not talking division winning.  I actually think we win the division but trying to get in as a WC this year is about the same thing as hoping Dalton hits that miracle TD.

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

miami at 9-4 right now. could they have a collapse, maybe win one more and they face each other, both 10-6 for the division week 17?

 

not likely but stranger things have happened. nfl is so unpredictable, especially with the refs hands in it.
 

 

When I say this as I have said a bunch of times now... I am specifically speaking as IF we don't win the division, which I think we will.  Just saying if we don't. 

[Desert Bills Fan]

Broncos loss means Bills now move to #9 spot!
Go Bills!

[Big Turk]

 

A loss to only the Cowboys and they likely win the division with the Dolphins having to play the Cowboys and Ravens still and that would also mean a loss to us...Dolphins have faded hard in December every year, and have gotten smashed every time they played a good team this year, so to me it's almost a foregone conclusion they are losing both those games. If they are playing the Bills for the division in Week 18, who in their right mind would take Mami in that game based on their track record over, oh, say the last 2 decades.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Big Turk