Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 12/5/2023 at 2:35 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

People say that, but honestly, our defense has played well enough for this team to be at least 10-2 if not 11-1 right now had the offense not crapped the bed week 1 and for 6 straight weeks under Dorsey.  

 

Had our offense played like it has under the first 2 weeks of Brady, we would actually be 11-1 right now with the only loss being Philly since we did lose that one with our offense playing well.  

 

D has its issues, but our record is a reflection of our offense.  Our low scoring offense 20.5 ppg for 6 weeks against bad competition put our defense in positions at ends of games that they shouldn't have been in had we just scored points like this team should have been scoring.  Those 1 score losses should have been multiple score leads by end of the game.  

They maybe shouldn’t have been in those positions sure but the defense has to hold once or twice on a final drive out of six different games lol that’s really not too much to ask. Not being able to stop NE or NYG(without needing a bailout from the refs) or DEN is literally insane 🤣. Just one stop out of a ton of chances and it’s a completely different season.  If the defense got a few of those stops I’d have no problem putting all the blame on the offense 
 

there’s plenty of blame to go around on both sides of the ball.  Last year the offense was more consistent and if the defense was this bad late in one score games we would’ve been much closer to .500 despite winning 13 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[transplantbillsfan]

Can we just establish that everyone needs to stop penciling in wins?

 

2 weeks ago if anyone said the Steelers would lose to the Cardinals and Patriots, they would have been called nuts.

 

This very much proves that even if Buffalo loses 1 of their next 5, the playoffs are very possible, if not likely.

 

Win all 5... we're the most dangerous team in the NFL.

 

Anyone really gonna be shocked if the Texans and Browns lose this weekend???

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

They maybe shouldn’t have been in those positions sure but the defense has to hold once or twice on a final drive out of six different games lol that’s really not too much to ask. Not being able to stop NE or NYG(without needing a bailout from the refs) or DEN is literally insane 🤣. Just one stop out of a ton of chances and it’s a completely different season.  If the defense got a few of those stops I’d have no problem putting all the blame on the offense 
 

there’s plenty of blame to go around on both sides of the ball.  Last year the offense was more consistent and if the defense was this bad late in one score games we would’ve been much closer to .500 despite winning 13 

That’s fair, but I still see the offense as the bigger culprit for our record.

[Ray Stonada]

Great news about Pittsburgh. We will need to win five straight though to be safe. It’s basically a 50/50 shot if we go 4-1.

 

 

[Lost]

There is scenarios where we can get into the playoffs with only 9 wins.  Basically if Pittsburgh loses the rest of their games which is kinda probable at this point...and... two of the other remaining contenders Colts, Browns, Bengals, Broncos to lose 3 of their last 4, and also for one of them to lose two of their last four.  Also pretty probably since most of those remaining teams play each other still and have at least one "tougher" game on their schedule.   In this case, the Bills could drop to both KC and Dallas but still get in with 9 wins.  

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

There is scenarios where we can get into the playoffs with only 9 wins.  Basically if Pittsburgh loses the rest of their games which is kinda probable at this point...and... two of the other remaining contenders Colts, Browns, Bengals, Broncos to lose 3 of their last 4, and also for one of them to lose two of their last four.  Also pretty probably since most of those remaining teams play each other still and have at least one "tougher" game on their schedule.   In this case, the Bills could drop to both KC and Dallas but still get in with 9 wins.  

Its possible.  But there would be about 12 games non-Bills that would have to go a specific way for this to happen.  Including Jets beating Cleveland in Cleveland.  Roughly 1 in 2^12 = 1/4096 .    If you add in the the 3 Bills games as having to go our way, that makes in 1 in 2^15 = 1/32768.  

Even if you assume the likely outcome of all 15 games is 80% likely they way we need them to go ,which is not remotely close to the truth, but for fun we will pretend it is, then the Bills chances of getting this alignment on 15 games is  .8^15 =  3.5% chance. 

Putting it in rolling the dice terms, it is likely that on any one role, I will not roll a 5 or 6.   But the odds of me rolling a die 15 times in a row with never hitting a 5 or 6 is 0.2%

 

Hopefully, the Bills win out, and we don't need lottery odds.  I suspect if we lose to both of the Chiefs and Cowboys, that during those two weeks, some other results would already have not gone our way, and we would be mathematically eliminated.

 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by PlayoffsPlease

[Lost]

38 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Its possible.  But there would be about 12 games non-Bills that would have to go a specific way for this to happen.  Including Jets beating Cleveland in Cleveland.  Roughly 1 in 2^12 = 1/4096 .    If you add in the the 3 Bills games as having to go our way, that makes in 1 in 2^15 = 1/32768.  

Even if you assume the likely outcome of all 15 games is 80% likely they way we need them to go ,which is not remotely close to the truth, but for fun we will pretend it is, then the Bills chances of getting this alignment on 15 games is  .8^15 =  3.5% chance. 

Putting it in rolling the dice terms, it is likely that on any one role, I will not roll a 5 or 6.   But the odds of me rolling a die 15 times in a row with never hitting a 5 or 6 is 0.2%

 

Hopefully, the Bills win out, and we don't need lottery odds.  I suspect if we lose to both of the Chiefs and Cowboys, that during those two weeks, some other results would already have not gone our way, and we would be mathematically eliminated.

 

 

 

 

How did you come up with those odds?

 

Also, I didn't even have the Jets beating Cleveland that game and they still get in.  So there's clearly multiple scenarios. 

[DapperCam]

The Browns looked downright ugly vs the Rams last week. Joe Flacco actually exceeded my expectations, but the defense seems like they have lost some of their juice. I think the Browns win one more game the rest of the year. I think the Steelers win one more game the rest of the year.

Assuming the Colts and Texans make it, that would leave one spot for Broncos, Bengals and Bills.

Bengals still play the Chiefs, Colts and Vikings, so I see 2 losses there for them. I think the Broncos split with the Chargers and lose to the Lions.

 

My prediction is the Bills get in at 10-7, or miss on a tie breaker with Cincy or Denver at 9-8.

[billsfanmd07]

I have a gut feeling we win vs KC.....then we have to hope we dont lose to Dallas at home. If we do then take care of Chargers and Pats its up to last game at MIami. What will make that game interesting is if Miami has nothing to play for and has to decide between resting starters OR taking us out.. Ive always thought the motivation to make the playoffs vs higher seeding advantage goes to the team just trying to get in.

Edited December 8, 2023 by billsfanmd07

[boyst]

evey simulation i run (i use espn bc f the nyt) has us playing at Miami. every time i change various inputs.

[Aussie Joe]

I’m beginning to think they will be get in at 10-7…

 

Couple of teams ahead of them are playing poorly.

 

 

[DBilz2500]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’m beginning to think they will be get in at 10-7…

 

Couple of teams ahead of them are playing poorly.

 

 

10-7 with loss to Dallas has us at like 73% to get in 

[stevestojan]

I am already feeling like the Dolphins game is going to take about 8 years off my life. 
 

So that bodes well for a run over the next few games I suppose. 

[Virgil]

8 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

I am already feeling like the Dolphins game is going to take about 8 years off my life. 
 

So that bodes well for a run over the next few games I suppose. 

 

I don't even want to think about that game.  That could be the highest of highs and lowest of lows.  If only Milano and Jones could be back by then and we are in position.

 

The idea of the Dolphins or Bills ending the other ones season on the last week...

[Scott7975]

33 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I don't even want to think about that game.  That could be the highest of highs and lowest of lows.  If only Milano and Jones could be back by then and we are in position.

 

The idea of the Dolphins or Bills ending the other ones season on the last week...

 

The Dolphins wont be in a position to have their season ended.  Lose the division maybe (unlikely) but they are going to win enough games to at least get a WC.

[TampaBillsJunkie]

On 11/27/2023 at 7:44 AM, Ray Stonada said:

 

I agree. But best to be up three scores by the 4th quarter, otherwise we might get McD'ed.

mcD'ed and mcReffed.

[QCity]

 

 

About a 2/3 chance to get in if they finish 4-1. This matches up with the NYT results (well, for those that actually know how to use the NYT simulator 😉)

[Ray Stonada]

5 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

 

About a 2/3 chance to get in if they finish 4-1. This matches up with the NYT results (well, for those that actually know how to use the NYT simulator 😉)

 

Yep. Currently NYT simulator says if we go 4-1 we have:

 

66% chance with loss to KC

71% chance with loss to Dallas

65% with loss to Chargers

67% with loss to Pats

66% with loss to Phins

 

 

[Drew21PA]

They just need to beat KC 

[PlayoffsPlease]

On 12/8/2023 at 10:11 AM, Lost said:

How did you come up with those odds?

Math

[entropyrules]

24 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Math

new or old?

Edited December 10, 2023 by entropyrules

[co_springs_billsfan]

Somebody give me updated odds to put in my veins

[DapperCam]

2 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

Somebody give me updated odds to put in my veins

Up to 39% in the NYT simulator. Can get it up to 72% with favorable results the next week.

Week 14

TEN over MIA

 

Week15

MIN over CIN

CHI over CLE

DET over DEN

TEN over HOU

NYJ over MIA

BUF over DAL

 

With no results other than a Bills win next week we are up to 60%.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Up to 39% in the NYT simulator. Can get it up to 72% with favorable results the next week.

Week 14

TEN over MIA

 

Week15

MIN over CIN

CHI over CLE

DET over DEN

TEN over HOU

NYJ over MIA

BUF over DAL

 

With no results other than a Bills win next week we are up to 60%.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Up to 39% in the NYT simulator. Can get it up to 72% with favorable results the next week.

Week 14

TEN over MIA

 

Week15

MIN over CIN

CHI over CLE

DET over DEN

TEN over HOU

NYJ over MIA

BUF over DAL

 

With no results other than a Bills win next week we are up to 60%.

Some of these games will go in our favor.  

[schoolhouserock]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Some of these games will go in our favor.  

Yes! Especially BUF over DAL, right? …RIGHT?!

[LABILLBACKER]

9 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

Yes! Especially BUF over DAL, right? …RIGHT?!

We're ambushing Dak on Sunday. 

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

Yes! Especially BUF over DAL, right? …RIGHT?!

We always get the breaks playing Dallas at home in a big game 

 

[chongli]

49 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

We always get the breaks playing Dallas at home in a big game 

 

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

[Mikie2times]

Just now, chongli said:

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

Ya, that was the train wreck I was joking about. What a miserable game. Crowd was unreal. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, schoolhouserock said:

Yes! Especially BUF over DAL, right? …RIGHT?!

 

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We're ambushing Dak on Sunday. 

 

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

We always get the breaks playing Dallas at home in a big game 

 

 

41 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

 

[QCity]

6 hours ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

Somebody give me updated odds to put in my veins

 

Overall odds go up 14% to about 35% right now. A Tennessee win over Miami tonight will increase that another 2%

 

A 3-1 finish (which IMO feel is most likely) has about a 70% chance to get in.

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

47 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

Tony Romo throws 5 picks! And... God blesses us with Trent-a-tive Edwards @ Qb! 😕😞 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We're ambushing Dak on Sunday. 

Yeah. Here we go… on a run. 

[jlgarsh]

The best news is that somehow the Chargers haven't canned Staley yet. He's the worst coach now that McDaniels was axed. Even Eberflus has the Bears playing hard every week and competitive. 

[mjt328]

I've been playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and it's still a very tough road ahead for the Bills.

I still can't figure out a realistic way to make the playoffs, unless we win-out and finish 11-6.

 

Miami's next two games are against the Titans and Jets.  They should easily defeat both.  But if they lose to Dallas and Baltimore after that, they would be looking at an 11-5 record going into the final week.  So there is still a possible road to the AFC East title.... but only if the Bills finish the season undefeated.

 

Based on tie-breakers for the Wild Card, the Bills are pretty much dead-last.  Which is why (even after beating the Chiefs and a couple games going our way this week), we still sit at a terrible #11 in seeding.  If we can win-out, all those teams in competition with us only need to lose 7 games.  If we drop even one close game along the way, we need the others to lose 8.  And that could get very tricky.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

13 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Well, except in 2007 when we played them at home on MNF and lost 25-24 in the last few seconds. Heartbreaker!

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200710080buf.htm

 

hey, thanks for the reminder, really needed that

 

>_>

 

[DBilz2500]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

I've been playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and it's still a very tough road ahead for the Bills.

I still can't figure out a realistic way to make the playoffs, unless we win-out and finish 11-6.

 

Miami's next two games are against the Titans and Jets.  They should easily defeat both.  But if they lose to Dallas and Baltimore after that, they would be looking at an 11-5 record going into the final week.  So there is still a possible road to the AFC East title.... but only if the Bills finish the season undefeated.

 

Based on tie-breakers for the Wild Card, the Bills are pretty much dead-last.  Which is why (even after beating the Chiefs and a couple games going our way this week), we still sit at a terrible #11 in seeding.  If we can win-out, all those teams in competition with us only need to lose 7 games.  If we drop even one close game along the way, we need the others to lose 8.  And that could get very tricky.

 

Wins over Chargers, Pats, Fins and L vs. cowboys gets us to 70% playoff odds with 10-7 record and 7-5 in the conference. I think finals wildcards end up being Browns, Broncos/Chiefs(with other winning division), and Bills being last wildcard. I don’t think Steelers, colts, Bengals  or Texans make it in with their QB situations and all their injuries. Just my 2 cents 

[Goin Breakdown]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Some of these games will go in our favor.  

Man idk. Maybe I'm being negative here but if I had no dog in the fight here I wouldn't bet on any of those teams to win. 

[jlgarsh]

If they get to 10-7 they'll be in, as long as the only L is Dallas. Any more conference losses make it next to impossible.