NFL Playoff Simulator

[DeltaDigital]

16 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Yea the more I look at their schedules there is almost no way the WC aren’t going to be

 

Cleveland 

Houston

Pittsburgh 

 

If we get to 10-7 I’m not sure how we have a tiebreaker with any of those 3.  None of them are going to be worse than 10-7.   

The path in is win the division.  
 

I'm not convinced the Dolphins don’t find a way to lose 3 more - 1 of them being to us.  

We can’t afford to lose more then 1 more game.  10-7 won’t get in.    

 

We could realistically be 10-6 or 9-7 going into the last game with Miami.  
 

I can see Miami losing to the Jets once, Dallas, Baltimore.   

I got in at 10-7 with us losing to KC and PHI... its not far fetched, that's with a handful of PITT and HOU wins. 

2 hours ago, H2o said:

This is a fun way to pass a little time. I had the Bills lose one more game between either Philly or Dallas and I picked us to beat KC. The season came down to week 18 against the Dolphins. Picked us to beat Miami in Miami giving us the Division for the 4th year in a row and the #4 seed. It also knocks Miami out of the Playoffs entirely, having them lose the last 3 weeks of the year to Dallas, Baltimore, and then Buffalo in week 18. It would be a bitter pill to swallow for Dolphins fans. 

no other fan base deserves that season end more than they do. 

[Avisan]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'd rather not make it this year. We aren't a threat to win the Super Bowl, so I'd rather have the draft capital to see if a new coach and a couple high profile rookies can be the difference.

We are, though?  Our defense is starting to solidify despite personnel losses and the Bills have a Top 5 offense at worst when we aren't shooting ourselves in the foot.  What team(s) do you feel like we don't have a reasonable chance of beating, and why?

[mykidsdad]

All we have to do is get hot at the right time. If the NY Giants and Eli Manning can win 2, we can win 1.

[Dr.Sack]

2 hours ago, mykidsdad said:

All we have to do is get hot at the right time. If the NY Giants and Eli Manning can win 2, we can win 1.

Just get there, the Mafia will take care of the rest.   

[BullBuchanan]

5 hours ago, Avisan said:

We are, though?  Our defense is starting to solidify despite personnel losses and the Bills have a Top 5 offense at worst when we aren't shooting ourselves in the foot.  What team(s) do you feel like we don't have a reasonable chance of beating, and why?

Our record says there are a lot of teams we won't beat. I have zero expectation that this team can beat KC, Baltimore or Jacksonville in the playoffs. I think we could definitely lose to the Texans and Dolphins. The Bengals with Burrow would have been a lock to beat us. If by some miracle we get through all of that, the Cowboys, Eagles, Lions and 49ers would completely dismantle us. I've watched dozens of games this year. Pretending we are Super Bowl contenders with all the strength in the league this year is completely delusional.

[Governor]

Miami has to collapse to get in.  They likely have to lose 4 games total. We would also have to hope the Ravens are still playing for something in week 17 vs. Dolphins.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Governor

[Bferra13]

45 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Our record says there are a lot of teams we won't beat. I have zero expectation that this team can beat KC, Baltimore or Jacksonville in the playoffs. I think we could definitely lose to the Texans and Dolphins. The Bengals with Burrow would have been a lock to beat us. If by some miracle we get through all of that, the Cowboys, Eagles, Lions and 49ers would completely dismantle us. I've watched dozens of games this year. Pretending we are Super Bowl contenders with all the strength in the league this year is completely delusional.

Well I guess we will see this week if we get completely dismantled by the Eagles, and then next by the Chiefs. I came away from that Eagles Chiefs game completely unimpressed. Every team this year has its warts. There is no clear frontrunner. If anyone has the potential to pull their crap together and rise above the rest it's the Bills. We have our qb and the d is coming together again(I think). We are in a decent spot. 

[zow2]

49 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Our record says there are a lot of teams we won't beat. I have zero expectation that this team can beat KC, Baltimore or Jacksonville in the playoffs. I think we could definitely lose to the Texans and Dolphins. The Bengals with Burrow would have been a lock to beat us. If by some miracle we get through all of that, the Cowboys, Eagles, Lions and 49ers would completely dismantle us. I've watched dozens of games this year. Pretending we are Super Bowl contenders with all the strength in the league this year is completely delusional.

 

I don’t know.  Tom Brady says the league is full of mediocrity. He does not see excellence. and that remark includes the good teams as well. 

So i’ll trust Tom and think our mediocre team can get on a roll and beat other mediocre teams.

[DapperCam]

I went through the simulator and got:
1. KC (14-3)

2. JAX (13-4)
3. BAL (12-5)
4. MIA (12-5)

5. CLE (11-6)
6. HOU (10-7)
7. PITT (10-7)

Outside looking in...BUF (10-7), DEN (9-8), IND (9-8)

I had Miami the last week of the season being win-and-in, and we lost (terribly Billsy of them).

[Governor]

12 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

The Browns beat Baltimore with Watson at QB.  The Browns are playing their 3rd string QB.  I don't see a lot of wins in their future.

Yeah, they’re probably done but if Watson didn’t get hurt, they might’ve run the table. Pretty impressive team. They’d be lucky to win 2 more games now.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Governor

[ngbills]

11 hours ago, Governor said:

Yeah, they’re probably done but if Watson didn’t get hurt, they might’ve run the table. Pretty impressive team. They’d be lucky to win 2 more games now.

Browns are winning more bc of the D and running game than Watson. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

My goodness, there is a realistic path to Bills vs Dolphins being for the division win. 

[Rew]

53 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

My goodness, there is a realistic path to Bills vs Dolphins being for the division win. 

There are multiple paths.  It's more likely that we win the division than get a wild card spot at this point 

[DCofNC]

If and it’s a big IF, we get the Josh we saw last week and the D can keep playing decent, there’s nobody that this team can’t beat in the AFC.   I’m not optimistic that both of those will happen, but it could.   Philly is a big game and it’s a measuring stick for how good this team can be this year.  Their D line is going to absolutely abuse the interior of the line all game, if there’s not a plan to minimize it, Josh is going to have to run for his life and make some big plays on his own.

[Governor]

The Chiefs appear to be in some serious injury trouble.

[mannc]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:20 PM, Governor said:

Yeah, they’re probably done but if Watson didn’t get hurt, they might’ve run the table. Pretty impressive team. They’d be lucky to win 2 more games now.

The Browns have been winning all year with sub-par quarterbacking…there’s no reason that can’t continue, especially with their schedule.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Governor said:

The Chiefs appear to be in some serious injury trouble.

Broken fingers from all the dropped balls.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

18 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Broken fingers from all the dropped balls.

Reaching for seconds when you're invited to sit at Coach Andy Reid's table.

*
😇

[buffblue]

On 11/23/2023 at 8:14 PM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

My goodness, there is a realistic path to Bills vs Dolphins being for the division win. 

Really? There is a definite chance, but the odds are quite grim at this point. Some fans are whistling past the graveyard 

[NewEra]

On 11/22/2023 at 1:11 PM, Avisan said:

We are, though?  Our defense is starting to solidify despite personnel losses and the Bills have a Top 5 offense at worst when we aren't shooting ourselves in the foot.  What team(s) do you feel like we don't have a reasonable chance of beating, and why?

I take it this is the first time you’ve noticed one of his posts.  They’re all relatively the same posts.  👎🏻 

[buffblue]

On 11/22/2023 at 3:43 PM, DeltaDigital said:

I got in at 10-7 with us losing to KC and PHI... its not far fetched, that's with a handful of PITT and HOU wins. 

It is far fetched. Have you looked at their respective schedules? Where are 4 losses coming from for one of those teams?

 

Highly, highly unlikely. Neither the Steelers or Texans are good, but the Bills conference record is so abysmal that it is going to doom them.

 

Our only way in now is to finish 5-1

Edited November 26, 2023 by buffblue

[Goin Breakdown]

6 minutes ago, buffblue said:

It is far fetched. Have you looked at their respective schedules? Where are 4 losses coming from for one of those teams?

 

Highly, highly unlikely. Neither the Steelers or Texans are good, but the Bills conference record is so abysmal that it is going to doom them.

 

Our only way in now is to finish 5-1

You're most likely right. I'm to the point where I'm just trying to enjoy each game because it's buffalo and it's football, but not with any realistic hope for a championship. 

[Arkady Renko]

Back in the drought days we had all these scenarios about the Bills getting in and who had to lose.  Generally I recall teams ahead losing enough but the Bills not doing their part.  I think in the end 10-7 or better will get the Bills in but they have to get the wins.  

[Punching Bag]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:37 PM, zow2 said:

 

I don’t know.  Tom Brady says the league is full of mediocrity. He does not see excellence. and that remark includes the good teams as well. 

So i’ll trust Tom and think our mediocre team can get on a roll and beat other mediocre teams.

 

Maybe T*m Br*dy is trying to convince a team to sign him for a big contract since teams are mediocre.

Would not trust him as an analyst but would as an anal-yst.

[Braedenstearns]

Where do we sit now? With today’s game and our loses? A win out obviously is needed, but what is the realistic chance for the playoffs now? 10-15%?

[zow2]

Just win the final 5 and we’re in baby!  they can do it.

[Dr.Sack]

Bye week funny 

[Braedenstearns]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Just win the final 5 and we’re in baby!  they can do it.

So it doesn’t matter who wins or loses if we just win out?

[Lionel Hutz]

Is there a top-5 draft pick simulator?

[gonzo1105]

Just now, Lionel Hutz said:

Is there a top-5 draft pick simulator?

I’m a big draft guy, if we’re not making the playoffs I’d prefer us to be as close to the top 15 as possible because there are a ton of great WR options and man to go with Diggs and Kincaid and a competent offensive mind will make the Bills very tough to beat 

[Hebert19]

I get us in ag 10-7 almost every time as long as the loss isn't afc.  

[beebe]

If every team that's favored wins next week, here's the AFC playoff picture: 

 

1. Chiefs 9-3

2. Jaguars 9-3

3. Dolphins 9-3

4. Ravens 9-3

5. Steelers 8-4

6. Browns 7-5

7. Colts 7-5

8. Texans 7-5

9. Broncos 6-6

10. Bills 6-6

11. Bengals 5-7

12. Raiders 5-7

 

Now, let's assume the Bills beat the Chiefs a week later coming off the bye, and once again, every favored team wins. 

 

Here's what the standings would look like through Week 14 with four weeks to play:

 

1. Jaguars 10-3

2. Dolphins 10-3

3. Ravens 10-3

4. Chiefs 9-4

5. Steelers 9-4

6. Colts 8-5

7. Texans 8-5

8. Browns 7-6

9. Bills 7-6

10. Broncos 6-7

 

The Bills (7-6) would have a 21% chance with four left to play (vs Cowboys, at Chargers, vs Patriots, at Dolphins).

 

Here's would be each team's remaining schedule with 4 to play:

 

Steelers (9-4): at Colts, vs Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens. 

*most likely record: 10-7

 

Colts (8-5): vs Steelers, at Falcons, vs Raiders, vs Texans

*most likely record: 10-7

 

Texans (8-5): at Titans, vs Browns, vs Titans, at Colts

*most likely record: 10-7

 

Browns (7-6): vs Bears, at Texans, vs Jets, at Bengals

*most likely record: 9-8

 

Broncos (6-7): at Lions, vs Patriots, vs Chargers, at Raiders

*most likely record: 8-9

 

In my opinion, if the Bills do anything but run the table, they're going to have a really tough time getting in at 10-7. The Steelers' schedule is so easy that 10-7 seems like a worst-case scenario and they currently look like the most likely 5-seed. The Colts and Texans - the current favorite to be the 6 or 7 seed, depending on heads-up result - both have clear paths to 10-7 records and one of them could even finish 11-6.

 

If the Bills dropped a game coming in to finish 10-7, they lose the tiebreaker to every team on this list.

 

The absolute best-case scenario, barring something totally unforeseen injury wise to the Steelers, Colts or Texans, is that the Bills MIGHT have a chance at a win-and-get-in game vs the Dolphins in the finale. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by beebe

[Scott7975]

I've been saying it since the Broncos game... this team is not getting in at 10-7.  They need to win out now and even then they might not make it.  The division is out of the question at this point.  Miami is going to run away with that.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Scott7975

[beebe]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

I've been saying it since the Broncos game... this team is not getting in at 10-7.  They need to win out now and even then they might not make it.  The division is out of the question at this point.  Miami is going to run away with that.

If the Bills run the table, they are 95% likely to get in. 

 

It would take literally almost every game to break wrong along the way (we're talking 10+ games). It's nearly impossible given that the Texans/Colts play each other, the Colts/Steelers play each other, and the Texans/Browns play each other, just in the final four weeks alone. 

[Scott7975]

Just now, beebe said:

If the Bills run the table, they are 95% likely to get in. 

 

It would take literally almost every game to break wrong along the way (we're talking 10+ games). It's nearly impossible given that the Texans/Colts play each other, the Colts/Steelers play each other, and the Texans/Browns play each other, just in the final four weeks alone. 

 

Yes if the Bills run the table they should get in.  There is still a chance they don't.  Getting in at 10-7 is very unlikely though.

[GustheDog33]

This team isn’t it. Sucks but down years happen. Josh Allen is a marvel. It’s a shame his talent and Diggs talent are being wasted by the current HC.

[Lost]

Bills aren't done yet.   

 

JA17 is back has shown he can compete with the best teams in the NFL so winning out doesn't seem as improbable anymore but they would have to do so despite McD and the NFL officiating.   If they win their last 5 and the Dolphins drop their week 16 and 17 games against Dallas and Baltimore, the Bills take the Division and 4th seed.  

 

If the Bills drop one more game, they certainly need more help now but it's still possible.  All eyes have to be on Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  They do have softer schedules but they are not great teams right now so anything can happen.  

 

Cleveland's last 6 games are against the Rams, Jacksonville, Chicago, Houston, Jets and Bengals.   Their backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson went out of the game with a concussion yesterday so who knows what kind of answer they have at QB going forward.   It's quite possible they lose 4 of their last 6 games in which case the Bills get in.  

 

Pittsburgh played slightly better this week but they're still one of the worst offenses in the league this year.   They do have a softer schedule to close things out as well but anything can happen when your O can't put up points.   Next 6 games for them are Cardinals, Patriots, Colts, Bengals, Seahawks, Ravens.   They would also need to lose 4 of those games for the Bills to get in.