Two Bills Drive being correct on the Draft: Who did we get right?

[KOKBILLS]

3 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Not a big cfb guy. The only selection I really had an opinion on was Joshua Allen. Was praying we'd get him at that time

Who's your guy this year . Respectable track record

 

It's a weird year...I don't have as strong convictions as I've had about individual players in the past...But I do like a lot of guys...I just don't see as many sure-fire prospects as I've seen in the past because most of these guys don't check EVERY box (ie, height, weight, speed, film, character, etc)...

 

I have a few preferences though...Zay Flowers for sure...Love him, just wish he was a little bigger...I was 100% on the Jalin Hyatt train, especially for the Bills, but the 4.4 at the Combine actually disappointed me a bit...I do think he's a bit limited coming in, nothing he can't get better at, but I was expecting him to run in the high 4.2's to low 4.3's...On the field he runs by dudes like they are standing still...I think Addison is a real good piece to add to any Offense. But he's so skinny, and not as fast as I thought he was. Good football player though. Smith-Njigba is by far the best all around WR in this Draft, even though he's not a burner, but he should be long gone before the Bills pick. I like Quinton Johnston too...But the body catching thing is definitely an issue for a guy with his body-type advantages. 

 

I really like Jack Campbell for the Bills...As an all around high-floor guy I think Campbell is about as good as you're going to get. Darnell Wright for sure...He's a beast...I'm a Michigan fan and I would not mind if they took Mazi in the 1st...He has huge upside IMHO...I'm an unapologetic TE Darnell Washington fan, but his success will be tied into where he goes and how the team that Drafts him uses him. He's a different kind of dude at TE. And should be one of the best blocking TE's in the NFL from day 1. 

 

Day 2 and later I like Marvin Mims, Tyler Scott, Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, and Andrei Iosivas at WR...Matthew Bergeron and Jaelyn Duncan, and later on Nick Saldiveri at OT...Joe Tippman at IOL...Gervon Dexter (who has massive upside...and a Chris-Jones-like rep...ie...takes some downs off), Keeanu Benton, Colby Wooden, and Zacch Pickens at DT...The Tennessee Byron Young at DE...And I'm SUPER intrigued with Zach Kuntz at TE...I'd love to see how Dorsey would work him into the Passing Offense. 

 

 

 

 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

3 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Can't tell you about the board in general...But I can tell you about what I got right...And admittedly I don't get everything right.

 

1. I stated right here ad nauseam that Pat Mahomes was the #1 overall prospect in the 2017 Draft and was the next big thing. I said it. Meant it. And that was a grand slam HR for me...

2. Chris Jones was the best D-Lineman in the 2016 Draft and I wanted the Bills to Draft him SO much...He was my favorite player from that Draft. They took Shaq.

3. I wanted DK Metcalf at #9 overall in 2019...But when he was still available in the 2nd, and the Bills passed on him, I almost had a coronary. Some folks here were trying to tell me N'Keal Harry was a better prospect...That's still hilarious to me. 

4. George Pickens was "my guy" last year. And I definitely would have taken Tariq Woolen in the 2nd. I was SUPER high on him. I liked Cook, but assumed they could get him in the 3rd...

 

That's a few... 

 

Not sure if I voiced it anywhere, but thought the same. Everyone was hung up on bad footwork, but all he did was ball out and have insane accuracy/placement regardless of where his feet were.

[KOKBILLS]

5 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Not sure if I voiced it anywhere, but thought the same. Everyone was hung up on bad footwork, but all he did was ball out and have insane accuracy/placement regardless of where his feet were.

 

Always keeping his eyes downfield too...Scrambling and looking for the kill shot...Passed the ball about a million times in College. Those were some really fun games to watch...Especially because when I watched them, I was convinced he was going to be the Bills next QB...

 

But that's OK now...If we had not landed Josh though...Oh my...

[nosejob]

21 hours ago, BringBackFergy said:

There are those who still insist Josh Rosen was the most NFL ready QB but was put in a bad situation. They must be correct. 

What about the pre draft brew ha with Geno Smith, Matt Barkley , E.J.Manuel, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, (my fave Ryan Nassib), Landry Jones, and Zac Dysert?

 

IIRC, the top 2 were Geno and Matt (who were the most argued over) went....39 and 48 LOL. Of course under the astute leadership of Whaley and Brandon, the Bills take E.j. at 16.

 

Ahhh, those must have been the good ole days..... if one were to listen to some of the posters here now who use the word McClappy and complain about Beane.🤪

 

EDIT: I did pick Groot!

Edited April 6, 2023 by nosejob

[nosejob]

11 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Nobody disses the Cap'n! 😠

If the Broncos would have taken Dareus, I'm guessing we woulda drafted Von.

[NoSaint]

21 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

This is always one of my favorite topics. I think more than half the time the board consensus would have been better than the GM and personnel experts, despite half the available information. I always think that level of hubris needs to be factored in to BPA and other discussions.

 

Recent examples:

- Creed Humphrey over Boogie Basham

- Breece Hall over Kaiir Elam

 

There are so many examples from earlier that left everyone scratching their head

it’d be interesting to run an “on the clock” vote and compare the results to the actual picks annually on draft day 

[MJS]

46 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Not sure if I voiced it anywhere, but thought the same. Everyone was hung up on bad footwork, but all he did was ball out and have insane accuracy/placement regardless of where his feet were.

I remember people concerned that he was coming from an air raid offense. I remember looking at his stats and thinking, dang, I don't care what offense he is in. Those are good numbers.

 

But I didn't think we would take a QB that year, so I didn't really have a super strong opinion.

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

What about the pre draft brew ha with Geno Smith, Matt Barkley , E.J.Manuel, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, (my fave Ryan Nassib), Landry Jones, and Zac Dysert?

 

IIRC, the top 2 were Geno and Matt (who were the most argued over) went....39 and 48 LOL. Of course under the astute leadership of Whaley and Brandon, the Bills take E.j. at 16.

 

Ahhh, those must have been the good ole days..... if one were to listen to some of the posters here now who use the word McClappy and complain about Beane.🤪

 

EDIT: I did pick Groot!

I was convinced that Tyler Bray would be what Josh turned out to be. That was my guy…oops. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

If the Broncos would have taken Dareus, I'm guessing we woulda drafted Von.

JJ Watt

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

not sure what center went after Humphrey that is an all-pro and can also play guard.  Note: we had very weak guard play the last few years.  

 

 

How far back do you want to go?   Last year the first team All Pro center(Kelce) was a former 6th rounder.   In 2020 and 2021 they were the same guys,  who were 5th(Linsley) and 6th(Kelce) rounders.  

 

As for the "can also play guard" part..........when did Creed Humphrey play guard and prove that?  In your imagination?

  

 

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

How far back do you want to go?   Last year the first team All Pro center(Kelce) was a former 6th rounder.   In 2020 and 2021 they were the same guys,  who were 5th(Linsley) and 6th(Kelce) rounders.  

 

As for the "can also play guard" part..........when did Creed Humphrey play guard and prove that?  In your imagination?

  

 

 

wow, lots of snark in your response.  

 

(1) Humphrey was rated by many services as the best center prospect in the past few drafts.  PFN had him #10 overall on it's big board: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/creed-humphrey-should-be-first-round-nfl-draft-pick-despite-positional-value-centers/

 

(2) He has the positional flexibility to play Guard, and could have played Guard if drafted by the Bills.  Many football services noted that he could play Guard, and a KC Chiefs press release after his draft noted this as well.  

 

Not drafting Humphrey was a huge miss by Bean.  

[BADOLBILZ]

17 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

wow, lots of snark in your response.  

 

(1) Humphrey was rated by many services as the best center prospect in the past few drafts.  PFN had him #10 overall on it's big board: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/creed-humphrey-should-be-first-round-nfl-draft-pick-despite-positional-value-centers/

 

(2) He has the positional flexibility to play Guard, and could have played Guard if drafted by the Bills.  Many football services noted that he could play Guard, and a KC Chiefs press release after his draft noted this as well.  

 

Not drafting Humphrey was a huge miss by Bean.  

 

 

Oh so sarcastically asking what centers that went after round 3 in that draft have become All Pro's......when I never suggested there were.....wasn't snark?

 

You get what you give.

 

(1)  Don't care who the highest rated RB's or Centers were.   I already stated my long held opinion........which is reflected in how teams draft in round 1 now........that those positions don't have the impact of premium positions where there are a lot of 1 on 1 matchups that allow individual players to alter the outcomes of games.   Edge and Island.    Humphrey is a good center but the way teams defense QB's now they rarely line up a big NT over center.   Instead they shoot gaps which often leaves the center as just a help man.   Very rarely left alone to pass block.   Watch the tape.   Humphrey spends a lot of time dancing alone and looking around in pass pro which are the most important downs in football(obviously).  

 

(2) Humphrey is listed at 300 pounds and has never played guard.   He started at center immediately at Oklahoma as a freshman and that was that.  All of you that claim you knew so much about him should have at least known that.  Amateur scouts can play make believe and pretend that he can play guard or tackle or tight end in the NFL or wherever else your imagination allows..........but he's not done it and isn't close to a physical ideal anywhere else.

 

The Bills have two very solid NFL centers in Morse and Bates(who actually played left tackle in the two biggest conferences in college football, fwiw).

 

It's not a position of weakness by any stretch........and both guys were already on the Bills roster at the time that Humphrey was drafted.......which is why you guys have to use your imagination to explain why the Bills needed to draft one in round 2.  

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[1onemangang7]

On 4/5/2023 at 8:39 PM, KzooMike said:

I'm looking for examples from the forum that ended up being either available or very close, the player ended up being good, and the board was on him. The biggest example I can think of is Haloti Ngata. I think 90% of the forum wanted him.  We ended up with Donte Whitner instead. Anybody else stand out to you?

Breece Hall

[Cheektowaga Chad]

On 4/6/2023 at 2:20 AM, Mark Vader said:

I have no recollection of this board suggesting that we take JJ Watt with the 3rd overall pick in that draft.

Sounds like pure hindsight.

I don't remember watt being discussed. Wasn't the consensus top 3 of that draft expected to go newton/Miller/dareus then more skill position players like Patrick Peterson aj green and Julio Jones had backing as well

[BuffaloBill]

On 4/5/2023 at 11:27 PM, Arkady Renko said:

Time will tell on Hall v. Elam I think.  And lots of people here would freak about picking a RB in the first round. 

I am one of them. RB’s do not have a long shelf life on average. 

[Solomon Grundy]

15 hours ago, nosejob said:

If the Broncos would have taken Dareus, I'm guessing we woulda drafted Von.

Von said he thought he was going to be a Buffalo Bill

19 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

I am one of them. RB’s do not have a long shelf life on average. 

True. That's why I'd draft one is use it up for 5 years

[Sierra Foothills]

58 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

I don't remember watt being discussed. Wasn't the consensus top 3 of that draft expected to go newton/Miller/dareus then more skill position players like Patrick Peterson aj green and Julio Jones had backing as well

 

Defensive line in general was identified as the primary need for the Bills that year.

 

In my recollection most of the pre-draft discussion here centered around (in no particular order), Von Miller, Dareus, Nick Fairley, Adrian Clayborn, and Cam Jordan. Not quite as much discussion about JJ Watt if I recall correctly.

 

That year (2011) was one of the greatest ever for defensive linemen (both tackles and edge) and of course the Bills blew the pick though in fairness, there was a strong consensus league-wide that Dareus was the second coming of Warren Sapp... only larger. Even Sapp himself said so.

 

 

[CorkScrewHill]

I was really high on Robert Nkimdiche  and Laquon Treadwell in 2016 and DK Metcalf when he came out and I wanted "the right" Josh Allen.  I have basically not worried about it since as I realized even after the success of Metcalf and Allen that I have no real clue. I just like the freaks who may or may not become superstars .. Tremaine and Groot fit the bill as well.

 

In looking at the drafts of other teams you will find similar hits and misses as the Bills and as "horrible" as the Bills have been they still have one of the top rosters in the NFL, so they are doing something right.

[hondo in seattle]

On 4/5/2023 at 6:53 PM, harmonkillebrew said:

This is always one of my favorite topics. I think more than half the time the board consensus would have been better than the GM and personnel experts, despite half the available information. I always think that level of hubris needs to be factored in to BPA and other discussions.

 

Recent examples:

- Creed Humphrey over Boogie Basham

- Breece Hall over Kaiir Elam

 

There are so many examples from earlier that left everyone scratching their head

 

I agree about the hubris.  Fans have a lot of it when they think they can run a draft better than a team of NFL professionals.

 

But I'm open-minded to being proven wrong.  So I challenge you to set up a thread during a draft.  We'll all chime in with our votes when Beane is on the clock.  Then, as time goes by, we can compare our consensus picks versus Beane's actual picks.  

 

Personally, I think it's unimaginable that bunch of fans will outperform a team of professionals who were chosen for their personnel jobs because of their expertise.  Scouts who study film, watch games live, talk to players, talk to coaches, even hire detectives in some cases...  living, sleeping, breathing college football all year long. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 4/5/2023 at 10:17 PM, HamSandwhich said:

What's Maybin doing these days? I heard he was doing some mayhem with a paint brush or something? 

His art is pretty good. I checked it out awhile back. 

[HamSandwhich]

30 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

His art is pretty good. I checked it out awhile back. 

Is it based?

[TheBrownBear]

On 4/6/2023 at 12:43 AM, Doc Brown said:

The Maybin and the Manuel pick were the only two where I swore at the tv.  I couldn't believe Orakpo was available although I thought he'd be better than he actually turned out to be.  Still better than the undersized one year wonder from Penn State though who apparently is more passionate in drawing things.

The Manuel pick in particular really depressed me.  I had seen enough of him to know he didn't stand a chance at being a productive NFL starting quarterback.  

 

But to be fair, I had a somewhat similar reaction to the drafting of Josh Allen.  I bought the analytics arguments hook, line and sinker.  I held out some hope for Josh though since I hadn't really seen him play in college.

[SCBills]

On 4/5/2023 at 9:53 PM, harmonkillebrew said:

This is always one of my favorite topics. I think more than half the time the board consensus would have been better than the GM and personnel experts, despite half the available information. I always think that level of hubris needs to be factored in to BPA and other discussions.

 

Recent examples:

- Creed Humphrey over Boogie Basham

- Breece Hall over Kaiir Elam

 

There are so many examples from earlier that left everyone scratching their head

Creed Humphrey over Boogie Basham and the board clamoring for DK Metcalf definitely come to mind for me.  
 

Far too early to say Breece Hall over Kaiir Elam is a valid stance. 

[Governor]

On 4/6/2023 at 12:58 AM, Solomon Grundy said:

How about letting DK Metcalf pass by numerous times

His broken neck scared most teams away. 

4 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

The Manuel pick in particular really depressed me.  I had seen enough of him to know he didn't stand a chance at being a productive NFL starting quarterback.  

 

But to be fair, I had a somewhat similar reaction to the drafting of Josh Allen.  I bought the analytics arguments hook, line and sinker.  I held out some hope for Josh though since I hadn't really seen him play in college.

The Leodis pick was pretty bad. 

[The Frankish Reich]

On 4/5/2023 at 8:48 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

Dude didn't even like football. He can go paint Rex Ryan's toes for all I care. He's been unlikable in any avenue I've seen him in. 

 

Gives off major ranch vibes too, but even that's too much credit. Dips his wings in tartar sauce, and huffs the violently fiberous farts. Dork

Hilarious take! Congrats. 
Now I’ll ruin it all by commenting: true. Maybin really didn’t like playing football. When I was a kid I imagined everyone out there fit the cliche: “I still can’t believe they’re paying me millions for playing a kid’s game I would play for free.” But no. Some guys are pure mercenaries out there. Part of all this draft stuff (the interviews, background checks, etc) is just figuring out who really fits the cliche and who is Aaron Maybin 2.0. 
Good for Maybin if he invested wisely and just walked away. Bad for the Bills, but good for Maybin. 

[Virgil]

I remember trading up and thinking we would get Mack, but took Watkins instead

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 4/7/2023 at 3:29 PM, SCBills said:

Far too early to say Breece Hall over Kaiir Elam is a valid stance. 

there’s a sizable  contingent of posters, who are anti-running back in the first round no matter what though. 
 

 

[BillsShredder83]

30 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Hilarious take! Congrats. 
Now I’ll ruin it all by commenting: true. Maybin really didn’t like playing football. When I was a kid I imagined everyone out there fit the cliche: “I still can’t believe they’re paying me millions for playing a kid’s game I would play for free.” But no. Some guys are pure mercenaries out there. Part of all this draft stuff (the interviews, background checks, etc) is just figuring out who really fits the cliche and who is Aaron Maybin 2.0. 
Good for Maybin if he invested wisely and just walked away. Bad for the Bills, but good for Maybin. 

I get it. Its hard work, pushing through when your bodies screaming "no". Time away from family, unfamiliar town.

 

High pressure from teammates, coaches, family wanting to see you start and excel.

 

"Some are mercenaries" is probably the best way I've heard that explained actually.

 

When I'm being fair I ain't mad at Maybin, who likes to do things they don't like to do lol but from an emotional fan position, very dislikeable dork. The duality of man

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 4/6/2023 at 2:20 AM, Mark Vader said:

I have no recollection of this board suggesting that we take JJ Watt with the 3rd overall pick in that draft.

Sounds like pure hindsight.

100% agree. Once Miller was gone no one objected to Dareus being drafted. Honestly no one complained about Dareus until after his big deal. He was a star and earned his big extension. 

No one was advocating for Watt. 

On 4/7/2023 at 4:52 PM, HamSandwhich said:

Is it based?

No but it has a great first step!

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I was right about Allen and Darnold.  I had Rosen my #2. 

I dismissed Mayfield and was admittedly biased by the failure of so many Oklahoma QBs before him. I did not understand the hype but I saw Darnold up close and knew he could not handle the pro game.

 

Biggest miss was on Justin Herbert. I watched this guy play small in every big game Oregon played for three years. He never lived up to the hype. Even in the RoseBowl win it was him running not passing that won that game. He was terrible throwing the ball in his RoseBowl MVP performance. I thought for sure he was going to be a bust in the NFL.

[Rico]

I think Maybin may have been the most obvious bust waiting to happen, but I’m not surprised the Bills drafted him. 

 

For me, my biggest surprise would probably be either Perry Tuttle or Booker Moore.

[gonzo1105]

Usually I give the benefit of the doubt to the guys who do it. I don't always like it but I'm not a run to here and bash kind of person. The one time I did was EJ Manuel. I am an FSU fan, he wasn't that good in college despite his statistics and knew we were no closer to a franchise QB. I actually thought his last year cost FSU a National Title. If Winston was starting I think we would have been in the BCS Title game.