Is Edmunds decision the most difficult Beane has ever faced?

[HOUSE]

Free agency blows

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, HOUSE said:

Free agency blows

 

Thanks, John Butler.

[BuffaloRebound]

6 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

This might sound like an a*****e thing to say, but if Edmunds' ability and presence can't really stop high-end QBs, why bother paying him what may be $15 to $18 million a year?

Not a rhetorical question. What value do we get if we can't stop the Burrow's and Mahomes of the league? 

My suggestion is pay a guy a fraction of that, "give up" the middle of the field more (it's not really making a difference in big games) and use the money on the O-line.

I mean you could make that argument against every guy on the defense.  I’d like to re-allocate some capital towards the offense too, but is Edmunds, a 24 year old physical freak who had his best season last year,  the right guy to draw a line in the sand on? 

[mushypeaches]

2 hours ago, 947 said:

I think it seems extremely stressful to us fans because we all know Beane should let him walk, but we also know darn well that McDermott might be able to convince Beane to pay him, and we'll be screwed on Offense. It really shouldn't be a difficult decision, but given our team's history, they're likely to make it one.

 

Why would teams ever need to throw short-to-intermediate routes in the middle of the field when Frazier has his outside corners playing 7-10 yards off the receiver?

 

SMFH

[uticaclub]

Most teams can justify letting a player like Edmunds walk because you can get a comp pick, but Beane doesnt play the comp pick game and I dont want to lose him for nothing. Maybe a tag & trade is the best option

Edited February 27, 2023 by uticaclub

[TheyCallMeAndy]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Of course trading up and taking Allen was the most impactful. 

But I'd argue the decision on Edmunds will have repercussions for years. There are so many options. Sign him long term and spread out the cap hit to a player that at best has had an inconsistent impact since entering the NFL. Even spreading out the can hit, it will still commit massive resources to the two linebackers. Tag and force him to play under the tag. Tag and trade. Simply let him walk. 

This next decision may ultimately make or break Beane's career. 

The window to tag a player has already opened and a decision must be made by March 7th. 

Should be an interesting week ahead. 

I agree, you are still signing him based off his age and potential to a degree.

 

 Not that he isn’ta good LB, because he is.

[TheBeaneBandit]

The Bills traded picks to move up for Edmunds.....you do NOT let him hit free agency. Tag and trade even for a 3rd round pick works for me.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Is Edmunds decision the most difficult Beane has ever faced?

 

If it is, then it's only because we have absolutely no one to backfill, even potentially.  That's a problem of his own making.  One starting LB drafted in five drafts.

 

 

[H2o]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I mean you could make that argument against every guy on the defense.  I’d like to re-allocate some capital towards the offense too, but is Edmunds, a 24 year old physical freak who had his best season last year,  the right guy to draw a line in the sand on? 

When you are up against it cap wise, your OL ranked 23rd in the NFL, Davis doesn't take the step forward most hoped, and your Franchise QB is running for his life on a vast majority of his drop backs? Yeah, I think you set a limit on what you are willing to commit to the position. He's not worth the $20M+ cap hit of the Franchise Tag or north of $100M with $60M or more gtd. He's just not. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by H2o

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

This must be the most difficult decision Beane has faced, because similar but opposite of you, I have been staunchly against re-signing him the last 4 years, but have changed my tune after this season.

 

Edmunds play, and the fog of his responsibilities, makes it almost impossible for us to properly decide whether it is worth re-signing him or not. Couple that with the "what ifs" that pop up when discussing using that money on Offense instead. But there are no guarantees Beane will spend on Offense even if Edmunds walks. So...

 

I have no clue.

 

Great post!

 

Agreed 

 

I see him walking and playing much better in a traditional 4-3.  Who knows, but if you ask me, the reason why we only use 2 LBs is because we only have two that are worth a siht.  It's a strain on those two as well, not a welcome one I would imagine.  

 

That's gotta be weighing into Edmunds' decision.  

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

13 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

The Bills traded picks to move up for Edmunds.....you do NOT let him hit free agency. Tag and trade even for a 3rd round pick works for me.

this is not Madden Football... do you know how rarely a tag and trade happens in the NFL?

[Ga boy]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

This must be the most difficult decision Beane has faced, because similar but opposite of you, I have been staunchly against re-signing him the last 4 years, but have changed my tune after this season.

 

Edmunds play, and the fog of his responsibilities, makes it almost impossible for us to properly decide whether it is worth re-signing him or not. Couple that with the "what ifs" that pop up when discussing using that money on Offense instead. But there are no guarantees Beane will spend on Offense even if Edmunds walks. So...

 

I have no clue.

I like that metaphor “fog of his responsibilities.”  I’m in a fog about what he does well (eg - no shacks, no interceptions, few pressures or run stuffs).  I guess the NFL coaches must think he’s gold because he’s about to bring home Ft. Knox.  

Edited February 27, 2023 by Ga boy

[BillsFan130]

28 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

this is not Madden Football... do you know how rarely a tag and trade happens in the NFL?

People I also think forget that if the bills tag Edmunds, it’s like 22 mil….

 

That’s a pretty dangerous game to play if you can’t find a suitable trade partner, as Edmunds would literally have all the leverage in the world

[Rc2catch]

Even though they are public enemy number one right now I’ll take the coaches decision over mine or the rest of this board. (Like I have a choice 😜) 
They know what edmunds is worth to the team and I would guess they know if they can make the correct adjustments to the scheme without him. I like edmunds, I think he gets far too much hate.. Most of the players people want to replace him with are hated by their own fanbases for the same reasons. Roquan couldn’t cover according to Chicago fans, Devin White is always out of position or missing his gap (and that’s with David next to him coaching him up) 

Edmunds plays soft, but so does most of the defense. I hope he goes somewhere that coaches more aggressive play. I would like to see what he can do when he’s thinking less and attacking more. 
He’s been here all these years and I can count on one hand how many times I have seen him blitz from the edge. It’s always the same “blitz” I guess you could call it. 
Line up over center, run right into him and just stand there so if the play gets behind you you’ll be free to chase em down. I understand occupying a blocker so someone else frees up, but it seems to rarely happen unless it’s Milano busting through. I’m no coach but to me his athleticism screams moving him all over the place even if he’s not gonna pass rush. 
Rumors are Detroit would be interested and that’s probably where I’d like to see him go as I enjoy the lions current brand of football. Edmunds would be a pretty great upgrade for that defense even if he’s as bad as some make him out to be. 
Gotta think the jump from Anzalone to Edmunds would be significant 

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

People I also think forget that if the bills tag Edmunds, it’s like 22 mil….

 

That’s a pretty dangerous game to play if you can’t find a suitable trade partner, as Edmunds would literally have all the leverage in the world

Yeah.  No way you tag him unless you somehow know who you’re trading him to. 

[dhgold]

4 hours ago, Billl said:

Seems like letting him walk and get overpaid by someone else is a pretty easy decision.

Yes

[RyanC883]

tag and trade is an interesting idea.  You'd have to be sure you'd get something, but this is better than just letting him walk.  2nd-3rd rounder for him in a trade?  

[DrDawkinstein]

23 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

I like that metaphor “fog of his responsibilities.”  I’m in a fog about what he does well (eg - no shacks, no interceptions, few pressures or run stuffs).  I guess the NFL coaches must think he’s gold because he’s about to bring home Ft. Knox.  

 

Yeah, I use that term to also give him a bit more benefit of the doubt than a lot of us (myself included) have given him in the past. It is certainly a fairly unique role he plays, so it is tough to get a read on any real comparison or expectation.

 

I was a huge detractor, but what brought me around at least a little bit was watching the extensive Cover1 videos discussing his responsibilities and the calls and decisions he has to make during a play. Not even between plays. In the middle of the play while it is coming right at him. It's a lot.

 

Since not many other coaches are... "bold" (cough) enough to use this scheme, the best I've found is to compare him to Luke Kuechly.

 

And if you look at Kuechley's first 5 years and compare them to Edmund's first 5 years, Tremaine is still greatly lacking.

 

LK 12 Ints

TE 5 Ints

 

LK 4 Forced Fumbles

TE 2 Forced Fumbles

 

LK 9 sacks

TE 6.5 sacks

 

LK 42 Pass Defended

TE 35 Pass Defended

 

LK outranks him in just about every category over his first 5 years, I wont bother to list them all. You can see them in the links above.

 

[Green Lightning]

I think keeping our DC and OC are harder decisions. 

[MrEpsYtown]

He is the linebacker equivalent of what the Giants are going through with Daniel Jones right now. Good, not great player who you invested a high pick in and have spent 5 years developing, who is going to command a huge contract that aren’t really worth. I think it’s a tough spot. 

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

People I also think forget that if the bills tag Edmunds, it’s like 22 mil….

 

That’s a pretty dangerous game to play if you can’t find a suitable trade partner, as Edmunds would literally have all the leverage in the world

exactly to my point lol This isn't old school madden football with endless cap space lol

[uticaclub]

2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Free agency blows

It’s part of the process

[Matt_In_NH]

Any GM of a perennial contender has to learn to make decisions to let young players go in FA who have a lot of meat on the bone left.  To date, he has not done that partly given the understandable desire to keep your young talent and the Bills have had cap space to do it. They can make it work with Edmunds, but not sure they should.

[Freddie's Dead]

Edmunds is this generation's London Fletcher.  Run out of town on a rail, he continued to be one of the best MLB's in the NFL for another 7 years.  We were in MLB purgatory after Fletcher left, and Santayana is laughing his ass off.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Gregthekeg said:

There is a stat out there that when he is in they have top 3 pass D and when he isnt they were 28th.... now imagine that all year.

 

This is not a fair analysis because last year the drop off from Edmunds was to Dodson or Bernard. We aren't going into next year with one of them as our starting MLB. So the real question is about the drop off from Edmunds to whatever free agent we bring in to replace him. No stats from last year can answer that question.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

is Edmunds, a 24 year old physical freak who had his best season last year,  the right guy to draw a line in the sand on? 

 

Here's the issue - "best season" for a MLB that's going to be paid what he'll get should include several game changing plays, ideally in critical moments. A forced fumble, a pick, a huge run stop on a 3rd or 4th down, a fumble recovery for a TD. Edmunds NEVER has plays like that. For him, his "best season" came down to being more consistent at the little things. Nothing wrong with that... but the real defensive superstars do a lot more than just the little things. Not so much a "line in the sand" as it is a good investment strategy.

 

A team that isn't paying a QB and needs an influx of talent on the defense can afford to pay Edmunds more than a player at that level should make. It's the kind of signing that might make a lot of sense for the right team, but no sense for us as our team is currently constructed.

[Kiva]

It’s a no-brainer.  Move on. This has been the plan all along. He has been disappointing since the draft, Beane knew he wasn’t going to extend him. It’s his talent not what he costs. 

[uticaclub]

14 minutes ago, Kiva said:

It’s a no-brainer.  Move on. This has been the plan all along. He has been disappointing since the draft, Beane knew he wasn’t going to extend him. It’s his talent not what he costs. 

If it was Beanes plan to let him walk we shouldn’t be in a position with no reasonable option on the present roster, and if Bernard is his answer he should be shown the door

Edited February 27, 2023 by uticaclub

[RichRiderBills]

What's the true blue evaluation on Edmunds?

 

God only knows. We are told he does so much, that his length and height are so crucial in what we do. Solid in coverage. But the eye test for me at least, is a guy who is middle grade, a guy who guesses wrong and makes some gaffs that cost us big. He does not get picks, does not get sacks, 

2 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Edmunds is this generation's London Fletcher.  Run out of town on a rail, he continued to be one of the best MLB's in the NFL for another 7 years.  We were in MLB purgatory after Fletcher left, and Santayana is laughing his ass off.

 

Meh ..that's a weak comparison. Fletch was a mighty mite. He gets tackles as folks drag him 5 yards down field. He was not young and not the physical specimen Edmunds is. He had the same issues in WA. It was no loss for Buff. 

 

I think with Tremaine, your still factoring in that young age and the potential in the contract. 

 

I don't pay big LB bucks for a guy like Edmunds. So many have said it. He's a coverage guy. 

 

I think whoever gives Edmunds his big deal is going to use him a lot different. Honestly, Micah Parsons comes to mind. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by RichRiderBills

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

this is not Madden Football... do you know how rarely a tag and trade happens in the NFL?

Davante Adams was traded last off-season after being tagged.  So it happens.  

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I understand fans wanting to have this line of thinking, but there is absolutely no solid, valid logic behind it.

 

It doesnt matter what we are paying Milano when it comes to Edmunds contract. Just like when Milano was re-signing people werent saying "but we only pay Lorenzo Alexander $X amount".

 

Milano's deal was in a much different time, for a different position, and had a player who was willing to take well below market in order to not complicate his life. It's an anomaly situation. Not a precedent.

And that decision becomes difficult when you have to pay this huge State Income Tax. 

[Ga boy]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, I use that term to also give him a bit more benefit of the doubt than a lot of us (myself included) have given him in the past. It is certainly a fairly unique role he plays, so it is tough to get a read on any real comparison or expectation.

 

I was a huge detractor, but what brought me around at least a little bit was watching the extensive Cover1 videos discussing his responsibilities and the calls and decisions he has to make during a play. Not even between plays. In the middle of the play while it is coming right at him. It's a lot.

 

Since not many other coaches are... "bold" (cough) enough to use this scheme, the best I've found is to compare him to Luke Kuechly.

 

And if you look at Kuechley's first 5 years and compare them to Edmund's first 5 years, Tremaine is still greatly lacking.

 

LK 12 Ints

TE 5 Ints

 

LK 4 Forced Fumbles

TE 2 Forced Fumbles

 

LK 9 sacks

TE 6.5 sacks

 

LK 42 Pass Defended

TE 35 Pass Defended

 

LK outranks him in just about every category over his first 5 years, I wont bother to list them all. You can see them in the links above.

 

Good stuff.  Thanks Doc!

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

People I also think forget that if the bills tag Edmunds, it’s like 22 mil….

 

That’s a pretty dangerous game to play if you can’t find a suitable trade partner, as Edmunds would literally have all the leverage in the world

You can remove the tag.  It's not binding.  It's not like a 5th year guarantee.   I agree though playing under the 1 year tag with their cap situation is nearly impossible.  

[Mikie2times]

I want the defense to have change forced on them. Otherwise why should we expect anything different. I'm not one of the people that think Edmunds sucks. I think he is key to our pass coverage, but I think that because Frazier built the defense that way. Similar to how he built it around the combination of Poyer and Hyde. This left us in a very bad spot if anything happened to these guys. We can't be that exposed at positions that most teams feel are interchangeable. Let him move on. Restructure the defense in more of a balanced way. We are running out of room to keep paying our elite players. Not because we can't do so if we really want, but because we have not seen those players take us to elite places and the vast majority have been locked up. If you haven't been locked up already under this regime I think that says all you need to know. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by KzooMike

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Of course trading up and taking Allen was the most impactful. 

But I'd argue the decision on Edmunds will have repercussions for years. There are so many options. Sign him long term and spread out the cap hit to a player that at best has had an inconsistent impact since entering the NFL. Even spreading out the can hit, it will still commit massive resources to the two linebackers. Tag and force him to play under the tag. Tag and trade. Simply let him walk. 

This next decision may ultimately make or break Beane's career. 

The window to tag a player has already opened and a decision must be made by March 7th. 

Should be an interesting week ahead. 

 

 

Nah. They're all important.

 

He's a consistently very good player who's now become even better, an excellent player. He'll make a positive difference here if they sign him, but he'll cost a lot of money. Like just about any player, there's an amount that they think will be too much. 

 

If they don't get him, it really will hurt this defense this year, as they don't have any reasonable succession plan.

 

They want to draft guys, develop them and re-sign them. He's a perfect example of a guy they should do that with, and doubtless want to. But there are financial limits.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, KzooMike said:

I want the defense to have change forced on them. Otherwise why should we expect anything different. I'm not one of the people that think Edmunds sucks. I think he is key to our pass coverage, but I think that because Frazier built the defense that way. Similar to how he built it around the combination of Poyer and Hyde. This left us in a very bad spot if anything happened to these guys. We can't be that exposed at positions that most teams feel are interchangeable. Let him move on. Restructure the defense in more of a balanced way. We are running out of room to keep paying our elite players. Not because we can't do so if we really want, but because we have not seen those players take us to elite places and the vast majority have been locked up. If you haven't been locked up already under this regime I think that says all you need to know. 

 

 

Tells all you need to know? No, it really doesn't. Was Milano locked up?

 

Yet he's now an All-Pro, after they re-signed him.

 

And the idea that we shouldn't re-sign people because they haven't taken us to elite places is dumb. That would justify not re-signing anyone. By that argument we shouldn't have re-signed Allen. He hasn't taken us to elite places. It's simply not a good argument.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is not a fair analysis because last year the drop off from Edmunds was to Dodson or Bernard. We aren't going into next year with one of them as our starting MLB. So the real question is about the drop off from Edmunds to whatever free agent we bring in to replace him. No stats from last year can answer that question.

 

 

It's an extremely fair analysis. Dodson and Bernard are still who we have. 

 

11 guys on the field and when one of them who is not Von Miller, goes off it affects us that much. That's huge. And the reason is that Edmunds is much more important to us than many people have thought through the years, particularly in pass defense.

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

You can remove the tag.  It's not binding.  It's not like a 5th year guarantee.   I agree though playing under the 1 year tag with their cap situation is nearly impossible.  

Yes but that’s only If they agree to a long term extension if I understand correctly.

 

His contract is expired so if they tag him and can’t trade him, he’s either playing under the tag or they reach an extension while the tag is placed on him. (In which Edmunds would have the leverage as there is no way they can absorb a 22 mil cap hit this year)

Edited February 28, 2023 by BillsFan130

[JaCrispy]

Get a MLB with instincts and watch the difference…We will all realize what we’ve been missing the last 5 years…

[chongli]

9 hours ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

Likely have to let him walk but he is only 24.  When Nader if you could do something really long term with him. 

 

What does "when Nader" mean?