Is it just me or do we always let offenses convert 3rd downs on us?

[ngbills]

Just now, Goin Breakdown said:

Nope. Some guys have priorities to kids and wives who don't like football. So when the game is done they hang with them and do stuff they like to. It's called compromise. 

This is shocking...I have never heard of such a thing. This is exactly why I dont allow my wife and kids out of the house. Dont want them to get any silly ideas that there is a world out there outside of football and serving me. 

[Goin Breakdown]

3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

This is shocking...I have never heard of such a thing. This is exactly why I dont allow my wife and kids out of the house. Dont want them to get any silly ideas that there is a world out there outside of football and serving me. 

What's shocking is that this convo just took a weird turn. 

[folz]

24 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Third down in general, our defense is 6th in the league.
 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

 

And they are 5th best in the league at total first downs allowed this season. Obviously, not all first downs are converted on third down...but just another stat to show that the defense has been better than some fans perceive.

 

The Bills D is 1st overall in total yards against, 2nd overall in points allowed, tied for 3rd overall in yards per play allowed, tied for 3rd overall in turnovers created, 2nd overall in opponent red zone conversion %, 5th in total first downs allowed, 6th in 3rd down conversions allowed, tied for 9th in sacks (though 13 teams have more sacks than we do, 4 teams with the same # as we have)...maybe a more honest stat is pressure percentage, where the Bills rank 14th.

 

The league scoring average for 2022 was 22 points per game. So, basically half the league scores 22 points or more per game. The Bills defense allowed 17.875 points per game. Only 5 offenses in the league averaged fewer than 18 points per game. Nine of our games were against teams that averaged at least 21.2 points per game this year, yet the Bills only allowed 5 teams to score more than 21 points and didn't allow anyone to score more than 26 (Minn had a defensive TD). The Bills defense held 12 of 16 teams below their own team's 2022 scoring average.

 

So, the Bills defense is middle of the pack in QB pressures/sacks (the Miller, Hyde, White injuries play a big part in that of course), but by pretty much every other metric, the Bills are at least a top 5 defense (if not top 2 or 3). 

 

Of course it's frustrating when they give up a third and long play, but overall, they are still giving up fewer yards, first downs, and points than almost any other team in the league, so those plays have to be put in perspective. Eleven of the 2022 playoff defenses have a worse 3rd down conversions allowed percentage than the Bills (only Balt and the NY Giants were better).

 

One thing I would look at though, if I were a defensive coach, are those boundary screens. We've given up a few 3rd and longs on those plays this year.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/opp.htm

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

So... Bills opponents... should actually try losing yardage on 1st and 2nd down?

 

😊

 

 

 

Can't argue with success!

[Jerome007]

3 hours ago, Tom Donahoe, GM said:

Just imagine how all the other teams feel when the Bills convert as many 3rd downs as they do

I don't like to taste it as they do ha ha. And no, the Bills are not that bad at all at this, but there's been a few 3rd/4th and very long converted this year by opponents... and it sucks. Lately, opponents have had more balls and they try to convert, instead of the usual cheap draw plays and checkdowns. Hyde indeed helped to curb this.

 

Bills sure do it a lot to other teams. With Josh's canon arm, the Bills convert a lot as they go for a lot. From day 1 with JA17, 3rd & 6 or 3rd & 15 has been the same.

[Buckets]

4 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

I tell my wife the same thing "3rd and long, they'll make it" the Bills just seem to have a problem with it.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

 

 

We're 6th in the league.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

 

Fans remember really good and really bad plays, but we tend to file successful 3rd down stops as "of course" and not remember them, whereas failures get filed under "I can't believe it," and are easily remembered.

 

We could always get better, though.

[Turbo44]

8 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

it's you, I can live with 4/16

[ganesh]

8 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Overall the Bills defense fell from 1st overall on 3rd down defense in 2021 to 7th in 2022. Still a top 10 unit even with a lot of injuries. It seems any 3rd down issues are perceived rather than real. Most teams would love to be where the Bills are on 3rd down defensively. 

If only we had the desired pass rush !   Go Bills!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

When it’s 3rd down and 20 I know they are getting it. 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, ngbills said:

Interesting. So we are decent vs 3rd and short, very good at 3rd and mid, and in the bottom quarter in 3rd and long or very long. 

 

3rd and 0-3 - Give up first 59.6% (16th)

3rd and 4-6 - 38.6% (3rd best)

3rd and 7-9 - 38.9% (8th worst)

3rd and 10+ - 23.2% (8th worst)

 

 

I'd love to see these stats. I always wonder whether or not the numbers have much statistical significance.

 

Where did you find them? Link?

 

 

[HurlyBurly51]

7 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The 3rd and 19 play was hilarious. Dane Jackson was so far off Hill and then when he caught it Jackson wasn’t even on the screen.

 

Talk about scared to death.

Infuriating.  Hill cut back, and instead of breaking back with him Jackson kept running downfield (and out of screen as you say)😂

[Punching Bag]

9 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

 

It is you.

[ngbills]

23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'd love to see these stats. I always wonder whether or not the numbers have much statistical significance.

 

Where did you find them? Link?

 

 

https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2022&year_max=2022&&opp_id=buf&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&tr_gtlt=lt&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=&yg_gtlt=gt&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=gt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=0&order_by=yards&down[]=3&__hstc=223721476.911f22f0a3bcdaf58b64afa64f4fa68a.1673924532783.1673924532783.1673924532783.1&__hssc=223721476.4.1673924532783&__hsfp=3857650353&_ga=2.220450768.996917044.1673924532-1796010297.1673924532
 

 

not sure the link will work. You can use the show criteria button to customize. 

[John from Riverside]

What I would like to see, is the stat that shows whether our defense gives up points after our office scores

[DapperCam]

Bills seem worse than average at 3rd/4th and long, which frustrates people because they are good in other 3rd down scenarios. Why the difference? It seems like just a slightly different coaching approach could get much better results.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

10 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Dolphins were 4/16 on 3rd down 

Don’t let that stop the narrative. 
 

 

[HappyDays]

9 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Watch the way the Ravens played the Bengals last night. They have zero fear. They set the tone. They don’t sit back on their heels and hope the QB makes a bad throw.

 

Uh the Ravens literally sat back and kept everything in front of them for most of the game. Chase caught like a dozen stop routes with his man playing off coverage. If the Bills defense played like that you'd be calling for Frazier's head. Then the Bengals lost Jonah Williams to injury and had to shuffle their already banged up OL and they were never able to fully adjust. Similar to what happened to us against the Dolphins a few weeks ago after Morse went down.

[Dr.Sack]

Tre Elam Milano Poyer Edmunds Rousseau hate giving up 3rd and longs. My $ says we give up no more for next 3 games.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Infuriating.  Hill cut back, and instead of breaking back with him Jackson kept running downfield (and out of screen as you say)😂

He probably had his eyes closed.

 

The fact he was like 10 yards off the entire route and still afraid to get beat deep is crazy to me.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 hours ago, bigduke6 said:

i always get worried when its 3rd and long for this defense.   they give up waaaay tooooo many of them.   its usually zone that causes it.

We have a play soft mentality on defense. I think it rubs off on us because we know it’s coming.

 

I think the issue is when we give up 3rd and long it always looks so easy. We don’t give it up often but it’s the way we give it up. Every time it’s a soft passive defensive call.

But honestly I get why the coaches do it. The players don’t make the plays either. The Jefferson catch on 4th and 18 was an aggressive defense but they got beat.

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BuffaloFan32]

11 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

Don’t listen to these quant nerds - you are absolutely right.  I find myself screaming at the tv in third and long situations.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, ngbills said:

https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2022&year_max=2022&&opp_id=buf&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&tr_gtlt=lt&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=&yg_gtlt=gt&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=gt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=0&order_by=yards&down[]=3&__hstc=223721476.911f22f0a3bcdaf58b64afa64f4fa68a.1673924532783.1673924532783.1673924532783.1&__hssc=223721476.4.1673924532783&__hsfp=3857650353&_ga=2.220450768.996917044.1673924532-1796010297.1673924532
 

 

not sure the link will work. You can use the show criteria button to customize. 

 

 

I see, it's a search you made on that site?

 

Thanks very much. I really appreciate it.

 

It's hard to see everything, as it's a subscription site. Hard to see how other teams compare at each distance category, for instance.

 

But as far as statistical significance, the numbers are large enough in each of the four categories to be legitimately significant to a reasonable degree. Without comparison numbers to other teams it's hard to see the ultimate meaning, but ...

 

Thanks for the link. As I say, I appreciate it.

[Xwnyer]

I think we are better on third and less than 5 than  third and 10 or more

[Matt_In_NH]

The stats say you probably have unrealistic expectations.  But it does seem that way sometimes.   

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

This doesn't add up. The Bills finished 7th in the NFL on 3rd down defense this year. Opponents converted 37.5% against them. 

 

It's seems hard to be 7th in the NFL based on the splits you gave. Unless opponents were in 3rd and 4-6 a lot more often than the other distances.

 

Do you have the number of times for each?

 

Yea I have looked at his link and it still doesn't quite add up to me. Maybe I am missing something? The range that the Bills are best in is the range in which they have faced the fewest plays. So that number doesn't seem like it would be enough to drag the average down for them to be 6th or 7th best overall. 

 

@ngbills - appreciate the link but can you help? I'm still struggling. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by GunnerBill

[mjt328]

15 hours ago, folz said:

 

And they are 5th best in the league at total first downs allowed this season. Obviously, not all first downs are converted on third down...but just another stat to show that the defense has been better than some fans perceive.

 

The Bills D is 1st overall in total yards against, 2nd overall in points allowed, tied for 3rd overall in yards per play allowed, tied for 3rd overall in turnovers created, 2nd overall in opponent red zone conversion %, 5th in total first downs allowed, 6th in 3rd down conversions allowed, tied for 9th in sacks (though 13 teams have more sacks than we do, 4 teams with the same # as we have)...maybe a more honest stat is pressure percentage, where the Bills rank 14th.

 

The league scoring average for 2022 was 22 points per game. So, basically half the league scores 22 points or more per game. The Bills defense allowed 17.875 points per game. Only 5 offenses in the league averaged fewer than 18 points per game. Nine of our games were against teams that averaged at least 21.2 points per game this year, yet the Bills only allowed 5 teams to score more than 21 points and didn't allow anyone to score more than 26 (Minn had a defensive TD). The Bills defense held 12 of 16 teams below their own team's 2022 scoring average.

 

So, the Bills defense is middle of the pack in QB pressures/sacks (the Miller, Hyde, White injuries play a big part in that of course), but by pretty much every other metric, the Bills are at least a top 5 defense (if not top 2 or 3). 

 

Of course it's frustrating when they give up a third and long play, but overall, they are still giving up fewer yards, first downs, and points than almost any other team in the league, so those plays have to be put in perspective. Eleven of the 2022 playoff defenses have a worse 3rd down conversions allowed percentage than the Bills (only Balt and the NY Giants were better).

 

One thing I would look at though, if I were a defensive coach, are those boundary screens. We've given up a few 3rd and longs on those plays this year.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/opp.htm

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

 

 

This has been a very strange year for the Bills.

 

Statistically, they are elite in almost every category.  Both offense and defense.  Both passing and rushing.

They are scoring around 30 points per game, and allowing less than 18.  And counting the playoffs, their record is 14-3.

 

But to the eye, this team is frustratingly inconsistent and doesn't seem to be playing anywhere close to its potential.  For almost the entire season, they have struggled to put teams away.  Regardless of who they are playing.  Virtually every week, they barely walk away with a win against an inferior opponent.  Scrape out a win in the 4th quarter.  Then we look at the stat sheet after the final whistle blows, and find out that everybody played great.  It honestly makes zero sense.

 

Sunday was a perfect representation of the Bills season.  We sweated out a 34-31 victory against a third-string quarterback and backup O-Line.  Anyone who was watching can tell we really didn't play well.  But according to the box score, the Bills offense put up 400+ yards and 34 points.  Their QB had 350 yards and 3 touchdowns.  And the defense actually did a great job shutting them down on the other side.

 

[cba fan]

On 1/16/2023 at 12:11 PM, stevestojan said:

Ugh, was that Rex Ryan?

yep lol. then then Rex fired Shwartz, who ran it great for Bills, then Rex and his bro f'd up that great D, so then Rex fired the offensive coordinator.

 

a series of screw ups.

[Scott7975]

I cant say that I dont worry everytime the Defense faces 3rd and like 12+.  On the otherhand I dont really worry about 3rd and like 6-.  Maybe those 3rd and longs just stick out like a sore thumb but it seems like it gets converted often against us.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Scott7975

[SoMAn]

And 2 pt conversions.
I have no way to look up that stat as far as I know, but it wouldn’t surprise me if their failure rate defending 2 pt conversions is around 80%. 

[WhoTom]

9 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

And 2 pt conversions.
I have no way to look up that stat as far as I know, but it wouldn’t surprise me if their failure rate defending 2 pt conversions is around 80%. 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-two-point-conversion-pct

NFL Team Opponent Two Point Conversion Percentage

Buffalo: 40%

 

FYI, our success rate on 2-point conversions this year is 67%.

NFL Team Two Point Conversion Percentage

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/two-point-conversion-pct

 

[SoMAn]

1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-two-point-conversion-pct

NFL Team Opponent Two Point Conversion Percentage

Buffalo: 40%

 

FYI, our success rate on 2-point conversions this year is 67%.

NFL Team Two Point Conversion Percentage

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/two-point-conversion-pct

 

Thanks for researching it. I’m surprised it’s that low. It seemed to melike opponents don’t usually have trouble hitting 2-pointers. 

[Big Turk]

On 1/16/2023 at 10:04 PM, ngbills said:

https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2022&year_max=2022&&opp_id=buf&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&tr_gtlt=lt&ytg_gtlt=gt&yds_to_go=&yg_gtlt=gt&is_first_down=-1&fp_gtlt=gt&fp_tm_opp=team&fp_ydline=&type[]=PASS&type[]=RUSH&is_turnover=-1&is_scoring=-1&no_play=0&order_by=yards&down[]=3&__hstc=223721476.911f22f0a3bcdaf58b64afa64f4fa68a.1673924532783.1673924532783.1673924532783.1&__hssc=223721476.4.1673924532783&__hsfp=3857650353&_ga=2.220450768.996917044.1673924532-1796010297.1673924532
 

 

not sure the link will work. You can use the show criteria button to customize. 

 

Looking at the comparison between the Bengals and Bills, it looks like the Bills force far more 3rd and 11+ plays than the Bengals do...27.4% for the Bills compared to only 15.7% for the Bengals.

 

In fact the Bills are the best team in the NFL by a WIDE MARGIN in forcing 3rd and 11+ yards.  Bills are 27.4% of their 3rd downs, Tennessee is second at 21.9%, then SF and Pittsburgh.  

 

In fact, the most common 3rd down for Bills opponents is 3rd and 11+ followed by 3rd and 7-10. That accounts for 54% of all 3rd downs by Bills opponents this year.  Compare that to 46.6% for the Bengals...Bills also lead the NFL in this by a wide margin as well, with Tennessee coming in 2nd at 52.3% and then only SF, Pittsburgh and NE over 50% and all of them at 50.5% or less.

 

Shows how good the Bills have been at stuffing runs this year(#1 in the NFL).

 

So one of the reasons the Bills are not as good at preventing these 3rd and longs from being converted is because they simply have a lot more of them.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Big Turk

[CSBill]

To the thread title: Good! Let them all think that.

[BigDingus]

If it's 3rd & 19, I now close my eyes because I'm tired of witnessing these ridiculous conversions.

 

It's one of the few remaining things that gets me legitimately animated & verbally upset watching a game. Feels like I've grown out of my old rage mode, but it comes roaring back seeing these 3rd & long situations. So to prevent that, I just lower the volume, close my eyes & wait for the result.

 

Much easier to digest when I don't see the stupidity play out live 🤣