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Studs and Duds: AFC Teams after 6 Games


Beck Water

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AFC

3 teams with 4+ wins:

Bills

Chiefs

Jets

 

7 teams with 3 wins:

Patriots

Dolphins

Ravens

Bengals

Titans

Colts

Chargers

 

The Bills and Chiefs are emerging as the conference frontrunners.

 

But after that.....who are emerging as the teams to beat?

 

With the same W-L record as the Chiefs, are the Jets emerging as Studs?  They've already won as many games this year, as they did all last season.

 

In addition to the Bills and Patriots 2x and the Dolphins again, they play the Broncos, Bears, Vikes, Lions, Jags and Seahawks.  The Broncos, Bears, and Jags all have 2 game losing records.  The Lions are 1-4.  Outside the AFC East/Bills, the Vikes and Seahawks are the only teams on their schedule who don't have losing records.

 

Have Salah and LeFleur finally turned it around in their second year?  Are the Jets legit?  They've beaten the Browns, Steelers, Dolphins, and Packers.

 

DVOA devotees, what do advanced stats tell you?  In terms of conventional defensive stats, the Jets are "meh" in the PA category (18th) but shine with 10 TO. 

#8 scoring offense in the league.  When I think of Wilson, the word that still comes to mind is "meh".  How are the Jets doing it, is it points off turnovers?

 

Who else do you expect to see climb?  Denver has a good D, so if Wilson and the offense get their act together, they could be in it.  I would expect to see the Titans, Chargers, and Bengals climb back in.  The Ravens puzzle me.  They may get their defensive act together, but right now it looks to me as though Wink Martindale knew something.  Same for the Colts - I think losing Eberflus set them back.

 

Dolphin aficionados will be looking for the Return of Tua to bring them back into it.  They play the Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans next, so plenty of scope there.

 

Thoughts?

 

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Most teams on that list are pretenders, feasting on mediocrity. 

 

The Ravens should trade Lamar Jackson before November 1, and spend the rest of the season seeing what they've got in Huntley.  It is obvious to me that coaching isn't helping Jackson make better decisions, and the team may as well get some draft capital if they can.   

 

 

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The Bills and Chiefs are the class of the conference and there isn't anyone close to them right now, but it's a long season - even longer now.

The Browns have shown the ability to play big games.

The Chargers have been drastically under-performing and so have the Broncos.

The Raiders have lost every game by 6 or less and have a complete team that just needs to come together. Carr will always be their weak link though.

 

The Bengals probably have too many holes to repeat, and the Titans look like a shadow of their former selves.

The Fins are pretenders, and the Ravens are built to win in the playoffs unless they make drastic changes to their offense. As happy as it makes me as a Mark Andrews owner in fantasy, WR's are not a part of their scheme.

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21 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Dolphin aficionados will be looking for the Return of Tua to bring them back into it. 

I honestly think Tua won't be the same guy after these 2 concussions. I really hope he doesn't get another bad one this year because they can be life altering.

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Lamar Jackson FINALLY showing his true colors.

 

I think he got lucky early in his career and the Roman offense was able to carry him through the first few seasons. Baltimore are pretenders. So are Miami. The Jets can win under certain circumstances. But I have to believe if you have some kind of solid defense, they can't overcome a 14 point deficit.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

The Jets are an actual QB away from being a very good football team.

 

Wilson is like a worse version of Baker Mayfield. Does nothing for his WRs and holds the offense down.

 

They could be lighting it up in the air with that roster.

Good thing for them Baker is a FA next Spring. They can get the real deal. :thumbsup:

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56 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

AFC

3 teams with 4+ wins:

Bills

Chiefs

Jets

 

7 teams with 3 wins:

Patriots

Dolphins

Ravens

Bengals

Titans

Colts

Chargers

 

The Bills and Chiefs are emerging as the conference frontrunners.

 

But after that.....who are emerging as the teams to beat?

 

With the same W-L record as the Chiefs, are the Jets emerging as Studs?  They've already won as many games this year, as they did all last season.

 

In addition to the Bills and Patriots 2x and the Dolphins again, they play the Broncos, Bears, Vikes, Lions, Jags and Seahawks.  The Broncos, Bears, and Jags all have 2 game losing records.  The Lions are 1-4.  Outside the AFC East/Bills, the Vikes and Seahawks are the only teams on their schedule who don't have losing records.

 

Have Salah and LeFleur finally turned it around in their second year?  Are the Jets legit?  They've beaten the Browns, Steelers, Dolphins, and Packers.

 

DVOA devotees, what do advanced stats tell you?  In terms of conventional defensive stats, the Jets are "meh" in the PA category (18th) but shine with 10 TO. 

#8 scoring offense in the league.  When I think of Wilson, the word that still comes to mind is "meh".  How are the Jets doing it, is it points off turnovers?

 

Who else do you expect to see climb?  Denver has a good D, so if Wilson and the offense get their act together, they could be in it.  I would expect to see the Titans, Chargers, and Bengals climb back in.  The Ravens puzzle me.  They may get their defensive act together, but right now it looks to me as though Wink Martindale knew something.  Same for the Colts - I think losing Eberflus set them back.

 

Dolphin aficionados will be looking for the Return of Tua to bring them back into it.  They play the Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans next, so plenty of scope there.

 

Thoughts?

 

you missed a catagory

teams that are 5-1

Bills

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2 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

you missed a catagory

teams that are 5-1

Bills

 

4+ wins includes ...... 5 wins?

 

58 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

Bill and Chiefs out way ahead.

 

I respect the Jets, but 1) I want to see how they play us twice, and 2) I want to see what they do over the course of the season.

 

For me the clear third team is the Chargers based on their talent.

 

I agree with you about the Chargers, but that's the intriguing thing to me that we see every year - teams who we expect to be better based upon talent and/or coaching fall to the wayside while other teams thrive.

Edited by Beck Water
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1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

4+ wins includes ...... 5 wins?

 

 

I agree with you about the Chargers, but that's the intriguing thing to me that we see every year - teams who we expect to be better based upon talent and/or coaching fall to the wayside while other teams thrive.

i was being fun sarcastic bro. relax

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After the Bills and Chiefs its wide open.   Anything can happen and the Bills still have a tough schedule ahead.  All of their division games will be tough, and many will be in bad weather.  The Bills are the class of the East, but no AFCE teams will roll over for us.  The Jets might actually be better than NE and Miami.  The once emerging Dolphins might end up on the bottom.  

 

In the West San Diego is the next best after KC. The other two teams are meh.  

 

Ravens, Titans, Bengals, Colts, Browns is a grab bag right now.  

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People keep talking about the Chargers.  They are just like everybody else.  They're always "dark horse" picks, and time and time again, they underachieve.  Let's just call a spade a spade.  Bills and Chiefs are the class of the AFC.  Rest of the conference is average.  Eagles and Vikings are the class of the NFC.  But, at the end of the day, both of those teams are playing for the right to lose to either Buffalo or Kansas City in the Super Bowl.  

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1 hour ago, Cray51 said:

Do not over-evaluate after 5 games.  Jets are running a high end turnover ratio, which is not sustainable.

 

Bills Chiefs are the team main teams in the conference.  That’s it

 

 

Turnovers seem to run in spurts and if this is true the Jets are in the midst of a good, favorable run.  The law of averages also often holds true so a run of “bad” luck may also hit them.

 

One thing that has always stuck with me is once in Bills history (I honestly do not remember the coach - it was during the drought) a coach said an athletically inferior player and team is more susceptible to injuries and mistakes  because the player or the team will try to overcome the gap through a little extra effort, reach or trying to somehow overcome their slight disadvantage.

 

This is a logical statement that seems to make a lot of sense.  The Jets are loaded with high draft picks and therefore athletically gifted players. Maybe they are finally putting this with good coaching and have themselves a team.  Only time will tell.

 

With all of that said the Bills are better.

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36 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

4+ wins includes ...... 5 wins?

 

 

I agree with you about the Chargers, but that's the intriguing thing to me that we see every year - teams who we expect to be better based upon talent and/or coaching fall to the wayside while other teams thrive.

Right. Hard to explain. If we take top seed in the playoffs having to face the Chargers then the Chiefs would be one hell of a task.

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Chargers have been playing without Keenan Allen since the first half of Week 1, imagine if we lost Diggs for 6 weeks. Also missing Joey Bosa for a long while. They're a good team, and a very real threat to KC in the AFCW with a healthy Keenan Allen & Bosa.

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1 hour ago, Cray51 said:

Do not over-evaluate after 5 games.  Jets are running a high end turnover ratio, which is not sustainable.

 

Bills Chiefs are the team main teams in the conference.  That’s it

Exactly.  A team that's won because of turnovers can lose because of turnovers too.  A team that wins with solid offense, defense, and STs will keep winning most of its games.

1 hour ago, wppete said:

Isaiah McKenzie is a dud. 

He's not a dud, but he's way too inconsistent.

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When the schedule came out I was glad to see the only AFCW team the Bills would play, was KC.  Not that KC would be easy, but that all four teams were being talked up.  Turns out the other three teams are not playing well.  The Chargers in particular ought to be a dominant team, and the Raiders looked nearly complete.  So much for that.  Instead we get the NFCN and AFCN which are overall having bad years.  Finally a scheduling break.

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18 minutes ago, 947 said:

Chargers have been playing without Keenan Allen since the first half of Week 1, imagine if we lost Diggs for 6 weeks. Also missing Joey Bosa for a long while. They're a good team, and a very real threat to KC in the AFCW with a healthy Keenan Allen & Bosa.

They can’t shake that ‘winning close games’ stigma though.  On paper they’re probably the second best team in the afc but they’ve been good/great on paper for awhile now and it just isn’t translating into wins 

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2 hours ago, Cray51 said:

Do not over-evaluate after 5 games.  Jets are running a high end turnover ratio, which is not sustainable.

 

Bills Chiefs are the team main teams in the conference.  That’s it

 

Good thing we're 6 games in then.

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2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Good defense and they are running the ball well with Hall. They have a good young roster, really good WRs…. It’s really just on Wilson to continue to develop, but right now he’s still at best an average QB with some good athleticism. 

 

Bills are the class of the conference. Biggest threat is Chiefs and Chargers. 

 

Saying Wilson is "average" is really generous. His play is arguably holding that offense back from being a true top-5 offense. 

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Here's what the AFC playoff bracket would look like if the postseason started today:

Buffalo Bills (5-1)

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)

Tennessee Titans (3-2)

Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

New York Jets (4-2)

Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)

Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1)

 

The COLTS would make the playoffs.  Almost unbelievable.  And the disappointing Chargers.  

 

The season has a long way to go of course.  The Jets D looks very very good but their offense is built on running, and that's no formula for success in the league these days.  The Ravens are collapsing, looking at each other for what's wrong instead of looking at themselves for how to close out close games.  And the Colts, geez louise, they're bad.

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Herbert verses the Denver defense will be interesting. 

 

In his career, he has been consistent, you're going to get ~300 yards and 2 TDs a game on 66%. 

 

They win tonight and they're 4-2. 

 

I would say the issue with them is they don't close games well. Maybe a bit like the Eagles, where their best ball is in the first-half. 

 

But they almost blew the Raiders game, almost let the Texans come all the way back, survived Cleveland. 

 

 

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