Early Bills/Chiefs line: Bills +1(UPDATE: Now Bills -3 post KC/LV Game)

[unbillievable]

I'm expecting a blow-out. Win by 3+ touchdowns.

The Bills will not punt.

This is a revenge game. The Players will be pumped up.

 

 

[RiotAct]

10 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Love that the Chiefs have one less day of rest than us, they should have a tougher matchup tomorrow than we just had, and think our DL/LBs are going to create havoc for the Chiefs offense next week. Is this thing on?!

more like 1-and-a-half days!

 

Hopefully tonight is an extremely physical affair, with the Raiders prevailing in OT 😁

[Greg S]

They play the hated Raiders tonight. I don't expect the Chiefs to have a letdown against the Bills. That game will be hyped up as the two best teams in the AFC facing each other. Tonight should be a very physical game and the Chiefs will have to get ready for the Bills on a short week.

[newcam2012]

12 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Love that the Chiefs have one less day of rest than us, they should have a tougher matchup tomorrow than we just had, and think our DL/LBs are going to create havoc for the Chiefs offense next week. Is this thing on?!

I hope you are right. I'm not as confident the Bills defense can stop the Chiefs. The Chiefs absolutely dismantled the Bucs defense which is  fantastic stopping the run. Mahomes was on a different level. Reid and the offense was precise, unique, creative, and looked unstoppable. Hard not seeing Mahomes exposing the Bills young secondary. 

 

The Bills need some players to get healthy quick. Need Poyer, Philips, and Oliver to ball out. This needs to be a dynamic Von harassing Mahomes all game.

 

The Bills with Allen should be able to move the ball. I think we will see Allen running the ball more. I think it gives the Bills the best chance to win. I don't think the traditional run game is capable of threatening the Chiefs D. 

 

This is going to be a great measuring stick for both teams. Wish we were playing at home. This game could very well be for the bye or home field advantage. This is a tall task for the Bills. They will be ready to play. Just hope they have the horses to win. A full strength Bills team would make me feel much better. It is what it is. Another note, why do I feel the refs are going to do their best to screw the Bills? 

 

Go Bills!!!

Edited October 10, 2022 by newcam2012

[HOUSE]

Blowout, blowout....Bills 38 Chiefs 13

Edited October 10, 2022 by HOUSE

[FilthyBeast]

I still have a hard time seeing the Bills being favored in KC and this is more motivation that Mahomes and the Chiefs really don't need.

 

But barring the Raiders upsetting the Chiefs tonight these teams are clearly on a collision course next week in a game that likely decides the #1 seed in the AFC which isn't an overstatement this early in the season.

[Franco_92]

15 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Can someone explain to me why we’re playing at KC for two years in a row? 

The same reason we got Pittsburgh in Buffalo 3 straight seasons. We have to go to KC next year too. Every 3rd year we play the afc west, next year it's time for chiefs on the road with that rotation. The separate rotation, playing the other afc division equivalent place (like when we finish 1st we play the 1st place teams in the 2 divisions we don't play in the afc that season), doesn't alternate, it does 2 home then 2 away for our division, year over year. This sometimes lines up for 3 consecutive games in one stadium year over year but it can never be more than that, and 2024-2026 could in theory be 3 straight bills chiefs games in buffalo

[Warcodered]

12 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

lets wait and see how this Raiders game goes along with any injuries that might come out of it before we go to far down the road of speculating on this.

NFL looking at the Raiders defense tonight: "Don't you ***** ruin this for us."

[BuffaloBaumer]

I was thinking the winner of this game most likely takes the #1 spot but the Chiefs have a lot more games left on their schedule that could be losses. Cinci, Rams, Chargers, Raiders, 49ers, Titans. Hoping there are 2 losses in there somewhere if Bills lose next week.

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, unbillievable said:

I'm expecting a blow-out. Win by 3+ touchdowns.

The Bills will not punt.

This is a revenge game. The Players will be pumped up.

 

 

Not sure about a blowout or even a win , but I love your confidence here. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Really going to need Po and Edmunds back for this one. And wouldn’t hurt to have Benford too, but I suspect we won’t see him until after the bye. 

[Boatdrinks]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I was thinking the winner of this game most likely takes the #1 spot but the Chiefs have a lot more games left on their schedule that could be losses. Cinci, Rams, Chargers, Raiders, 49ers, Titans. Hoping there are 2 losses in there somewhere if Bills lose next week.

Just like the Bills win this matchup last October but didn’t end up the #1 seed. There’s simply too much of the schedule left to be played. If this game was December 24th, it’s a different story. 

[Awwufelloff]

Game of the year.

[NickelCity]

36 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

But barring the Raiders upsetting the Chiefs tonight these teams are clearly on a collision course next week in a game that likely decides the #1 seed in the AFC which isn't an overstatement this early in the season.

 

Is it likely though? It's the regular season game of the year and a meeting of the best two teams in football, but what are the odds that the one seed comes down to the result of this game?

Edited October 10, 2022 by NickelCity

[newcam2012]

27 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

NFL looking at the Raiders defense tonight: "Don't you ***** ruin this for us."

Thus far, the raider defense has pretty much sucked. I don't see them stopping KC tonight. 

17 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Not sure about a blowout or even a win , but I love your confidence here. 

Confidence or just foolish homerism? No knowledgeable unbiased  football fan would.ever make such an outlandish prediction. Yet, it's welcomed with open arms. I get it but it's more likely tje Chiefs win by a blowout. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

I predict this will go alot like the Ravens game.

 

Chiefs take the big early lead and cool off in the second half.

 

Bills have a furious comeback 

[Process]

14 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Thus far, the raider defense has pretty much sucked. I don't see them stopping KC tonight. 

Confidence or just foolish homerism? No knowledgeable unbiased  football fan would.ever make such an outlandish prediction. Yet, it's welcomed with open arms. I get it but it's more likely tje Chiefs win by a blowout. 

If chiefs win by 10+ you win. If Bills win by 10+ I win. Loser donates to charity. You in?

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Greg S said:

They play the hated Raiders tonight. I don't expect the Chiefs to have a letdown against the Bills. That game will be hyped up as the two best teams in the AFC facing each other. Tonight should be a very physical game and the Chiefs will have to get ready for the Bills on a short week.

Let them see how it feels to play with 7 injured starters

[Billz4ever]

The key to this game will be the Chiefs running game. Mahomes will still be there no matter what, but the Chiefs were able to run on the Bucs, so the Bucs were left guessing all game. That made things easy for Mahomes.

 

If we are able to shut down their run, that makes the task of containing Mahomes not loom so large.

 

The Colts limited KC to 53 rushing yards in their win.  The Bucs gave up 189 rushing yards.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Billz4ever

[ehfeuh57]

3 hours ago, beebe said:

 

I mean, you can keep saying that sort of stuff. But it's not reflective of reality: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-how-much-home-field-advantage-worth-spread

 

here's one the other way

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-home-advantage-awol-oddsmakers-050154472.html

 

recent data shows that there "shouldnt be" a big home field advantage but the lines are still set as such and the bettors still bet accordingly.

 

I actually set lines on my own with extreme accuracy. Many of these bookmakers in your articles simply copy them. They are not setting them on their own. Again you have to talk to the three people that set the lines on the first offshore site that sets them.

[RoyBatty is alive]

16 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Wonder if the line moves if some of our big injuries might seem to get better as the week goes on?

Wonder if the line moves with any KC injuries tonight.

[TheWei44]

1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

 

Is it likely though? It's the regular season game of the year and a meeting of the best two teams in football, but what are the odds that the one seed comes down to the result of this game?

Totally agree - Huge game that will be over hyped.  Important game for wins/conf record/head-to-head but unlikely to, on its own, decide the one seed/HFA.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Process said:

If chiefs win by 10+ you win. If Bills win by 10+ I win. Loser donates to charity. You in?

That's not what I responded too. The original post called for 21 point plus blow out. 

[Process]

3 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

Totally agree - Huge game that will be over hyped.  Important game for wins/conf record/head-to-head but unlikely to, on its own, decide the one seed/HFA.

It's actually very likely this game decides the 1 seed. We are talking about two teams that are going to lose very few games. This one game is important. Just like the Bills -titans game decided the 1 seed last year. 

[John from Riverside]

The Chiefs are going to give the Raiders a beat down tonight and the same saps on the board will be crying that the next game will be unwinnable

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Thus far, the raider defense has pretty much sucked. I don't see them stopping KC tonight. 

Confidence or just foolish homerism? No knowledgeable unbiased  football fan would.ever make such an outlandish prediction. Yet, it's welcomed with open arms. I get it but it's more likely tje Chiefs win by a blowout. 

These teams are pretty evenly matched : I don’t think a blowout by either is more likely. A close game is more probable. 

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wonder if the line moves with any KC injuries tonight.

It’s about the only way I can see it changing by much. 

[NickelCity]

7 minutes ago, Process said:

It's actually very likely this game decides the 1 seed. We are talking about two teams that are going to lose very few games. This one game is important. Just like the Bills -titans game decided the 1 seed last year. 

 

I think the argument is over the word "likely." I believe it is more likely than not that this game does not determine the 1 seed. It's possible it does, of course, and I hope we win. 

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

I made this Bills -1.8 and bet the Bills ML -110 on the look ahead line when it was a pick 'em. BOL re-opened at Bills -2/-115. My numbers, of course, expect Edmunds and Poyer back, so this was a pure value grab for me, but damn I hate betting on the Bills.

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

 

Is it likely though? It's the regular season game of the year and a meeting of the best two teams in football, but what are the odds that the one seed comes down to the result of this game?

 

I believe it does because when I look at the rest of the AFC it's mostly garbage outside MIA/BAL/CIN/LAC who I think will fill out the AFC playoff field along with BUF, KC + the AFCS Winner (who right now would be the Titans and Bills already handled them as well).

 

Bills already beat BAL and have another game against MIA and CIN late in the season.

 

I also believe this team is different now and not going to squander a regular season head to head victory against KC should that happen again this year. They understand they can't go there in the playoffs and let that decide their fate again. Make Mahomes and KC come to Buffalo at least have a better shot and winning the game.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

4 hours ago, beebe said:

 

I mean, you can keep saying that sort of stuff. But it's not reflective of reality: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-how-much-home-field-advantage-worth-spread

 

So this is still where a ton of people get it wrong. HFA is different in every stadium and can even adjust based on the importance of the game. For example, the Bills, by my numbers have an HFA of about 1.22 in a neutral situation, but in a "big" game and the later in the season it gets it's closer to a 4 point adjustment. Part of the reason the Bills only get a 1.22 standard advantage from me is because the offense has been better on the road since the start of 2020, almost entirely because of the weather we see in Buffalo, and also because elite teams tend to have less variance on the road compared to their home games.

 

There are also a myriad of ways people calculate HFA and if you don't adjust for strength of opponent and things like expected points etc. you're going to be off on your number. I love the point from the article that technology has helped mitigate a lot of HFA, because things like travel schedules and sleep have massively changed how teams approach going on the road.

[newcam2012]

29 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The Chiefs are going to give the Raiders a beat down tonight and the same saps on the board will be crying that the next game will be unwinnable

I don't think anyone will say the game is "unwinnable." That's just absurd. 

[Warcodered]

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

37 minutes ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

 

So this is still where a ton of people get it wrong. HFA is different in every stadium and can even adjust based on the importance of the game. For example, the Bills, by my numbers have an HFA of about 1.22 in a neutral situation, but in a "big" game and the later in the season it gets it's closer to a 4 point adjustment. Part of the reason the Bills only get a 1.22 standard advantage from me is because the offense has been better on the road since the start of 2020, almost entirely because of the weather we see in Buffalo, and also because elite teams tend to have less variance on the road compared to their home games.

 

There are also a myriad of ways people calculate HFA and if you don't adjust for strength of opponent and things like expected points etc. you're going to be off on your number. I love the point from the article that technology has helped mitigate a lot of HFA, because things like travel schedules and sleep have massively changed how teams approach going on the road.

Your evaluation of HFA ignores the point that the opposing team could be more significantly impacted by wind/weather than ours since our qb has a big arm that can throw tight spirals.  Not that it would’ve changed much lol but we had a massive HFA yesterday imo.  Sure it hurts our offense but if it hurts the other offense more that definitely qualifies as an advantage 
 

 

[LabattBlue]

2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wonder if the line moves with any KC injuries tonight.

If by injuries you mean Mahomes and Kelce, yes, the line moves.  Anyone else...a blip on the radar.

[FilthyBeast]

2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wonder if the line moves with any KC injuries tonight.

 

This is another thing that concerns me about KC, unlike years past they are the ones that are pretty much 100% healthy right now. And the only reason they lost to the colts was because one of the best kickers in the league got hurt in that one.

 

I think the only thing that would make the line move in KC's favor is they win something 45-0 because I think the Raiders are a much better one win team than the Steelers for what it's worth. Can also argue that Raiders season is somewhat on the line tonight at least for any hopes of staying in WC/Division title picture.

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is another thing that concerns me about KC, unlike years past they are the ones that are pretty much 100% healthy right now. And the only reason they lost to the colts was because one of the best kickers in the league got hurt in that one.

 

I think the only thing that would make the line move in KC's favor is they win something 45-0 because I think the Raiders are a much better one win team than the Steelers for what it's worth. Can also argue that Raiders season is somewhat on the line tonight at least for any hopes of staying in WC/Division title picture.

Raiders are better than the Steelers, no doubt and their Season, imo, is on the line tonight.  They lose tonight down  a tie break and by 3 games to the Chiefs.  Maybe an extra day an the dire position they are in will inspire McDaniel to come up with a winning game plan.

Edited October 10, 2022 by RoyBatty is alive

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is another thing that concerns me about KC, unlike years past they are the ones that are pretty much 100% healthy right now. And the only reason they lost to the colts was because one of the best kickers in the league got hurt in that one.

 

I think the only thing that would make the line move in KC's favor is they win something 45-0 because I think the Raiders are a much better one win team than the Steelers for what it's worth. Can also argue that Raiders season is somewhat on the line tonight at least for any hopes of staying in WC/Division title picture.

I expect the Raiders to give the Chiefs all they can handle tonight.  The Raiders are talented, can get after the passer, and this is a huge divisional game for them.  I think it's going to be a back-and-forth battle, similar to Ravens/Bengals last night, except higher scoring.

[BritBill]

I can’t wait for Sunday night. It’s going to be epic. It’s a great time to Bills fan. Soak it all in. 

[Jeffbigalls]

Just now, mannc said:

I expect the Raiders to give the Chiefs all they can handle tonight.  The Raiders are talented, can get after the passer, and this is a huge divisional game for them.  I think it's going to be a back-and-forth battle, similar to Ravens/Bengals last night, except higher scoring.

Could be but next week is huge for home field, the winner of the game will be in great shape

And mahomes has played 8 games vs raiders and they average 37ppg there

 

Just now, BritBill said:

I can’t wait for Sunday night. It’s going to be epic. It’s a great time to Bills fan. Soak it all in. 

Sunday afternoon 

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

The Chiefs are going to give the Raiders a beat down tonight and the same saps on the board will be crying that the next game will be unwinnable

Contrast to a next game against a crappy team and people saying could be a repeat of last year's Jags game