Why exactly are we favored by 3.5 in Baltimore?

[2003Contenders]

Vegas likes to look at team rankings. The Bills right now rank #1 in team defense and #2 in team offense. The Ravens offense is good too (#4) but their defense ranks dead last in the NFL.

[Bruffalo]

The Bills are better in almost every category than the Ravens.  The QBs are mostly equal, especially with how Jackson has been playing, but even with injuries the Bills are still a lot better.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

33 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

The Bills are better in almost every category than the Ravens.  The QBs are mostly equal, especially with how Jackson has been playing, but even with injuries the Bills are still a lot better.

 

 

I won’t say a lot but we definitely are better. If Dobbins is healthy, that makes them much tougher to defend. Allen and our receivers will eat. Can’t believe the Ravens have this bad of a defense. Doesn’t seem right.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

1 hour ago, 2003Contenders said:

Vegas likes to look at team rankings. The Bills right now rank #1 in team defense and #2 in team offense. The Ravens offense is good too (#4) but their defense ranks dead last in the NFL.

The books absolutely do not do this.

[SinceThe70s]

Isn't the spread all about trying to even out the betting $$ on both teams and by extension how the betting public views the match up? If so, the books don't think the takes on this board for the past 48 hours are representative of the betting publics view.

[Mr. Wonderful]

11 hours ago, WyoAZBillfan said:

Can’t disagree, unless you think about the one guy who got hit in the hand, didn’t get to go sit plays out and played his guts out for 60 minutes. Thinking exhaustion and a bit of pain in that throwing hand has something to do with it. One throw and the loss don’t sit squarely on him. 

True.  He's an awesome competitor and fatigue and injury had to figure in. 

[newcam2012]

10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I won’t say a lot but we definitely are better. If Dobbins is healthy, that makes them much tougher to defend. Allen and our receivers will eat. Can’t believe the Ravens have this bad of a defense. Doesn’t seem right.

The line of 3.5 Bill's favorites in Baltimore seems generous.

 

Not sure how Balt stops the Bills? I doubt the Bills stop themselves like they did in Miami. Allen and the Bills receivers should have plenty of opportunities to score. However, I'm not sure the Bills defense can contain Jackson. He seems to be playing at a different level. I don't agree with the premise that McDermott and Fraizer have the scheme to stop Jackson. I looked back and saw the latest 3 game sample . The Bills are 1-2 verse the Ravens. The last game was the horrendous weather playoff game. An outlier for sure. 

 

I would really like to see the Bills offense score quick and get a 2 score lead. That may take the Ravens out of their game plan. I'd much rather see Lamar try to beat the Bills with his arm rather than his legs. 

 

With that said, I can see another close nail biter game. I took the Ravens with 3.5 points. 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

Isn't the spread all about trying to even out the betting $$ on both teams and by extension how the betting public views the match up? If so, the books don't think the takes on this board for the past 48 hours are representative of the betting publics view.

As long as sharp bettors don't influence the line too much.  Yes.

[SinceThe70s]

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

As long as sharp bettors don't influence the line too much.  Yes.

 

True, thanks!  But that influence only happens after the initial line is posted.

 

My point to OP remains the same - despite the histrionics on this board since the loss on Sunday, the public consensus is that the Bills are still a kick-@ss SB contender!  And I'm in agreement. 

[NewEra]

12 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

Vegas likes to look at team rankings. The Bills right now rank #1 in team defense and #2 in team offense. The Ravens offense is good too (#4) but their defense ranks dead last in the NFL.

They do not.  Where do you get this information from?

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

The line of 3.5 Bill's favorites in Baltimore seems generous.

 

Not sure how Balt stops the Bills? I doubt the Bills stop themselves like they did in Miami. Allen and the Bills receivers should have plenty of opportunities to score. However, I'm not sure the Bills defense can contain Jackson. He seems to be playing at a different level. I don't agree with the premise that McDermott and Fraizer have the scheme to stop Jackson. I looked back and saw the latest 3 game sample . The Bills are 1-2 verse the Ravens. The last game was the horrendous weather playoff game. An outlier for sure. 

 

I would really like to see the Bills offense score quick and get a 2 score lead. That may take the Ravens out of their game plan. I'd much rather see Lamar try to beat the Bills with his arm rather than his legs. 

 

With that said, I can see another close nail biter game. I took the Ravens with 3.5 points. 

 

 

Their scheme kept Jackson to some of his lowest career numbers. Their 2019 game plan was heavily borrowed from by the Titans for their playoff game later that season. Neither game in Buffalo had great weather, but they weren’t outliers either. The Bills were highly effective at limiting Jackson’s big plays on the ground. That’s a large part of the battle to defeating the Ravens with him at QB. The Bills may be 1-2 vs Ravens under McDermott, but if any game was an outlier it was the first meeting. I don’t think Jackson started that game and Josh ( in his first NFL game ) definitely did not. He came in cold off the bench for a horrendously ineffective Nathan Peterman and the game was already a blowout. The other loss was a great effort by the Bills vs Jackson but a blown coverage decided the game on a long run after catch TD by TE Haden  Hurst. This season Jackson does seem to have improved his passing, but McD and Frazier have had an effective scheme to limit Jackson thus far. 

[Freddie's Dead]

Because despite the loss in Miami, we're still the best *****in' team in the NFL?

[Bimmer323i]

On 9/26/2022 at 10:33 PM, Adamb412 said:

But on paper Baltimore has a slight advantage IMO 

What do you mean on paper??? There one of worst defense against the pass in the league 

[John from Riverside]

Felt a lot better about it after we signed a veteran corner

 

We are getting players back this week to

[Back2Buff]

Vegas also had Miami +190 on moneyline vs Bills last week.

 

Easiest money I have made.

 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

Vegas also had Miami +190 on moneyline vs Bills last week.

 

Easiest money I have made.

 

 

You won the bet and that's all that matters. However, it was far from easy money. Anyone who had the Dolphins money line sweated it out to the last second. So stop embellishing. 

[Back2Buff]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

You won the bet and that's all that matters. However, it was far from easy money. Anyone who had the Dolphins money line sweated it out to the last second. So stop embellishing. 

 

Bills dont win close games, it was never in doubt.

[Nextmanup]

On 9/26/2022 at 10:33 PM, machine gun kelly said:

Because the guys in the desert like to make $, and we are the better team.  What’s up with the hot take when we don’t know injuries or anything else for that matter in a team that lost half their starters do the 22, yet advanced 500 yards to Miami’s 220 ish and we were based.

 

Dude, we lose one game and the sky is falling.  Rookie move.

You seem to be thinking that we are still, right now "The Buffalo Bills."

 

We are not.  We are the Buffalo Bills minus a whole BUNCH of our key players.

 

That results in a team that is somehow not quite the Buffalo Bills, and it's why we got beat by the Dolphins.

 

The team in Baltimore will still NOT be "The Buffalo Bills."  It will be another injured iteration.

 

What the betting means is that people who bet on football games still believe in the Bills, nothing more.

 

It's probably because the average sports betting fan out there is not aware of just how banged up we are.

 

 

[Punching Bag]

On 9/26/2022 at 10:29 PM, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

 

They still think we have Trent Murphy on team who prevented Jackson from getting any significant running yardage on one side of the field.  Leslie still has game plan though and when Lemur cannot run his game plan is very limited.

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Bills dont win close games, it was never in doubt.

Get out of here with that. 

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

You seem to be thinking that we are still, right now "The Buffalo Bills."

 

We are not.  We are the Buffalo Bills minus a whole BUNCH of our key players.

 

That results in a team that is somehow not quite the Buffalo Bills, and it's why we got beat by the Dolphins.

 

The team in Baltimore will still NOT be "The Buffalo Bills."  It will be another injured iteration.

 

What the betting means is that people who bet on football games still believe in the Bills, nothing more.

 

It's probably because the average sports betting fan out there is not aware of just how banged up we are.

 

 

Brother, I care more about Hurricane Ian right now and I’m stuck in Philly so concerned for my kids at college.  I’ve not paid any attn to who is still injured and who is expected back.  As I write before, I’ll pay attention on Saturday morning if by chance my next flight doesn’t get cancelled like the one Thursday.

 

 

[ILBillsfan]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:29 PM, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

Go argue with the folks in Vegas who make a lot of money on setting these lines.....Vegas makes good money off of NFL bets based off their lines.  It is based on betting action and a balance of how they have the teams ranked.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Scott7975]

On 9/27/2022 at 9:29 AM, H2o said:

 

So rain and wind on Sunday. Going to be tough sledding for the offense again, just for polar opposite reasons. 

that wind isn’t bad. I think we had the same wind for the Titans game. 

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Vegas also had Miami +190 on moneyline vs Bills last week.

 

Easiest money I have made.

 

 

awe do you want a cookie?

[FilthyBeast]

Don't have the greatest feeling about this game but going to learn a lot about this team in terms of whether or not they can bounce back from a tough loss.

 

Also not a reach to say the AFC #1 seed could be determined in next 3 weeks with games against the Ravens and Chiefs, at least from the Bills perspective.

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Don't have the greatest feeling about this game but going to learn a lot about this team in terms of whether or not they can bounce back from a tough loss.

 

Also not a reach to say the AFC #1 seed could be determined in next 3 weeks with games against the Ravens and Chiefs, at least from the Bills perspective.

fear monger

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

On 9/27/2022 at 4:33 AM, cwater10 said:

Because the oddsmakers do not give a rat's a** who the better team is and are in no way trying to make a statement or an assertion regarding who they think is better or by how much.  They operate by trying to balance where the money comes in.  If they think that the betting public will place more money on Buffalo, then the line will favor Buffalo.  The more money that comes in during the week on Buffalo, then the more that line will increase to entice bettors to go the other way, thus ensuring the sports book a profit regardless of outcome.   

They do not try to balance the money coming in anymore. You know why? More recreational gamblers are in the space and they're not going to open themselves up to professionals with large bankrolls hammering a bad number because of "balance" 

[1onemangang7]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:29 PM, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

you seem like you really want to know so i'm going to give you an answer but i cannot list all of the reasons for obvioius reasons.  Numbters are a big reason and Buffalo owns the best qbr against figure in the leauge ..... most teams with a number in that category will prove to be the best in the leauge.  The other is buffalo is 2nd in opponent yards per carry.  The Bills own the better qb.   Public perception is a factor and theyve had all the preseason love.  The number is set to attract money to both sides... now you have some basics, i will tell you the biggest square reasons to like a side is by what you saw most recently and if team B just killed team C and team C killed team A then surely team B will kill team A.  You dont need to worry about the line at all.  Injuries are already in the number. 

[1onemangang7]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:40 PM, YoloinOhio said:

Vegas won’t care about the injury report unless the following are out:

Allen

Diggs

Miller

 

nothing else will move the line. 

money moves the line.  

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Because we are better

[YoloinOhio]

5 hours ago, gridirongold said:

money moves the line.  

Yes. I was referring to what would move the line pertaining to injuries. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Yes. I was referring to what would move the line pertaining to injuries. 

Josh or Lamar being out 

 

Von Miller and Milano being out?

 

[1onemangang7]

31 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Josh or Lamar being out 

 

Von Miller and Milano being out?

 

Line may be adjusted for a key injury but then it's market like any other and money moves the line. Though recreational money probably will not. 

Sounds dumb and hard to do but anyone in here is probably recreational or just sides against rec players so no need to even look at an injury report the oddsmaker already accounted

[1onemangang7]

Mafia up. Everybody bet to win 17 for donations if it wins. They'll either do nothing or move it enough sharp money will balance their risk 

[Bills2022]

On 9/27/2022 at 11:49 AM, BillsShredder83 said:

Just curious how everyone feels about betting this game.... wait a few days till the line comes down??

 

The line isn't coming down. The Ravens are not that good.  They have a terrible defense.  

 

[mabden]

Having Josh Allen gives us at least 6 extra points on the spread regardless of the opponent. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by mabden
Correct number

[appoo]

Ravens defense is not good. At all. Lamar is gonna put up some fireworks, but the Bills DLine and very good linebackers should help semi contain him - but I don't know how that Ravens defense contains this offense. They can go Cover 2 all day, but Allen is still going to grind the field on them, and they don't have the Dolphins DB talent to maintain that strategy for awhile without getting burnt

[chongli]

Vegas favored the Bills by 3.5. We won by 3. Look like they pretty much knew what they were doing.

 

I know hindsight is 20/20, but we were favored by 3.5 because we are the better team. Not to say that Baltimore is not good.

[CoudyBills]

55 minutes ago, chongli said:

Vegas favored the Bills by 3.5. We won by 3. Look like they pretty much knew what they were doing.

 

I know hindsight is 20/20, but we were favored by 3.5 because we are the better team. Not to say that Baltimore is not good.

Frankly the Bills decided not to cover.