Does the strategy change when a team is this close to the SB?

[Mikie2times]

Kyle Pitts crossed my mind the other day when considering the above. Pitts, from my eye and many others was considered a can't miss once a decade TE. He looked the part at Florida. We had no need to trade draft picks to go after such a player but one could argue that type of elite talent would have been the difference maker in multiple games last season. It was sort of like when Moss went to New England. When you're close the value of an elite player is even more magnified. 

 

As teams get closer to winning the SB I feel it makes sense to shift resources from building a foundation towards high end talent. Those resources are cap usage and draft picks. We saw this with St Louis but that's not really why I suggest this. More a curiosity if we see the Bills change things up and take this approach. 

[BringBackFergy]

What did St Louis do? 

[Mikie2times]

Just now, BringBackFergy said:

What did St Louis do? 

Understood, but many did not do what St. Louis did nor feel it was the correct way to go about it. I feel you go for high end talent, curious other takes. 

[Dopey]

This reminds me of the "Is Beane sleeping? Where's the baby?" thread.

[Rigotz]

It depends on the age of your superstars.

 

If you have a 25 year old elite QB, you don't mortgage your future on winning short term.

If you have a 35+ or 40+ year old elite QB, the story changes.

 

There is almost zero chance the Bills should or would mortgage their future for one player.

The Randy Moss trade was for a 4th round pick. At the time, he looked awful and unmotivated on the Raiders. It was just a good trade for NE.

[JoPoy88]

14 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Understood, but many did not do what St. Louis did nor feel it was the correct way to go about it. I feel you go for high end talent, curious other takes. 

You mean Los Angeles right?

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

You mean Los Angeles right?

I can't, I'm sorry

[The Wiz]

37 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

It depends on the age of your superstars.

 

If you have a 25 year old elite QB, you don't mortgage your future on winning short term.

If you have a 35+ or 40+ year old elite QB, the story changes.

 

There is almost zero chance the Bills should or would mortgage their future for one player.

The Randy Moss trade was for a 4th round pick. At the time, he looked awful and unmotivated on the Raiders. It was just a good trade for NE.

Amazing what going from an average team to a annual playoff/ super bowl contender can do to someone's motivation. 

[klos63]

if you think a particular player is needed to put you over the top, you make every effort to get him. I think we need an elite pass rusher.  If we can get one, do it.

[BuffaloBillies]

It's a fair question. I think it does. Guys who can come in immediately and make an impact. Game 1 starters or at least rotational players. As far as draft goes, might mean bundling some and moving up for 2 guys (vs 4) and using rounds 5-7 for developmental guys.

[Augie]

20 hours ago, BringBackFergy said:

What did St Louis do? 

 

They moved. I think this is a thinly veiled PSL thread.  Maybe. 

 

….or something completely different. A plea for another TE?  I really don’t know…… 🤷‍♂️

 

I say we keep our current course. Make smart moves, draft well, don’t lunge for big splashy names fans recognize. 

 

 

.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Augie

[Doc Brown]

A little more aggressive maybe but not to the point where you significantly mortgage the future.  You need a great roster, luck, a coach willing to squib kick it, and a good year health wise to win the Super Bowl.  Putting yourself in the playoffs most years gives you the best chance.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Beane screwed up last year. 

If he is not all in this year to do everything to win the SB this year then he should be fired.

He got the QB now go get the ring. 

[msw2112]

The key is term.  If you can bring in a game changer on a high value, SHORT TERM deal, you do it.  It helps both parties - the organization is very close to being able to win it all and the player desperately seeks a ring.  The organization is not cash strapped for the long term and the player can seek fortune elsewhere in the future.  In the short term, both entites "use" each other to try and get the elusive ring.

[ChasBB]

2 hours ago, KzooMike said:

As teams get closer to winning the SB I feel it makes sense to shift resources from building a foundation towards high end talent. Those resources are cap usage and draft picks.

I see your point, but I also don't think the team should abandon the methodology that got them this close to a SB to begin with.  I don't think I'd allocate more than 10%-to-15% of all available resources to a "big name" guy while using the remaining 85%-to-90% of resources in the usual process way ... making sensible FA deals that work for the both the team and the player, trades, drafting well, etc).  Maybe bring on ONE big name guy who can truly be a difference maker, but otherwise be prudent with remaining resources and do deals that make sense to the team and generally stick to the plan that made you this competitive.
Edit: And I'd want to keep my draft picks, so I'd make sure the resources came from CAP.

Edited March 9, 2022 by ChasBB
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[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Kyle Pitts crossed my mind the other day when considering the above. Pitts, from my eye and many others was considered a can't miss once a decade TE. He looked the part at Florida. We had no need to trade draft picks to go after such a player but one could argue that type of elite talent would have been the difference maker in multiple games last season. It was sort of like when Moss went to New England. When you're close the value of an elite player is even more magnified. 

 

As teams get closer to winning the SB I feel it makes sense to shift resources from building a foundation towards high end talent. Those resources are cap usage and draft picks. We saw this with St Louis but that's not really why I suggest this. More a curiosity if we see the Bills change things up and take this approach. 

 

 

Yes, strategy changes. No, not so much when you're close to the SB.

 

It changes from the first year or two when you have a ton of holes to when the team matures and you have at least a solid guy at every position.

 

We have traded draft picks every year. We traded our first for Diggs. But no, you don't trade a lot of high-value picks. Not unless you don't have a QB. 

[MJS]

36 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Beane screwed up last year. 

If he is not all in this year to do everything to win the SB this year then he should be fired.

He got the QB now go get the ring. 

You mess up every post, but nobody has fired you yet.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Beane screwed up last year. 

If he is not all in this year to do everything to win the SB this year then he should be fired.

He got the QB now go get the ring. 

 

 

Yeah, yeah, he screwed up last year by putting together probably the best roster in the league.

 

They could use you in the Superman comics writer's room. You could help them figure out what people from Bizarro World might say in any given situation.

 

He did a fantastic job last year, and this year he should absolutely NOT do anything to squeeze our window, which is right now a very long one.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I can't, I'm sorry

It helps to remember that the team was in LA before it moved to St. Louis.

[P Riv]

I don't think you look for that player to put you over the top.  I do think you look at what you have, what got you here, and what you absolutely cannot afford to lose in order to continue giving yourself the best chance to win.  That's the difference between consistency and high stakes gambling.  Allen makes this whole team better in every respect, so I think we start with protecting him and ensuring he has play makers to get the ball to.  Deal with the rest as it comes.  

[Greg S]

It's a good question. GM's still have to the manage the cap and have a short and long term plan in place. I would say when teams are right there in terms of winning a Super Bowl then you are more likely to see them be more aggressive in getting that final piece. See 2021 LA Rams as an example. I wouldn't be surprised if Beane goes all in this offseason as the Bills are setup to compete for and possibly win a Super Bowl next season. You can't say that every year. You can't even say that in most years.

[ProcessTruster]

10 hours ago, Augie said:

 

They moved. I think this is a thinly veiled PSL thread.  Maybe. 

 

….or something completely different. A plead for another TE?  I really don’t know…… 🤷‍♂️

 

I say we keep our current course. Make smart moves, draft well, don’t lunge for big splashy names fans recognize. 

Agree.  Trust the Process of simply improving your overall roster year after year, mainly via the draft.   Especially with a 40m cap hit from one guy.   They had the SB this year, the ST coach pooped the bed at a critical moment in a single elimination tournament game.  The SB roster is there now.  

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

It helps to remember that the team was in LA before it moved to St. Louis.

Let us also not forget the rich history they had in Cleveland 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

It helps to remember that the team was in LA before it moved to St. Louis.

Cleveland to start, but let's not quibble. 😁

[NoSaint]

12 hours ago, Rigotz said:

It depends on the age of your superstars.

 

If you have a 25 year old elite QB, you don't mortgage your future on winning short term.

If you have a 35+ or 40+ year old elite QB, the story changes.

 

There is almost zero chance the Bills should or would mortgage their future for one player.

The Randy Moss trade was for a 4th round pick. At the time, he looked awful and unmotivated on the Raiders. It was just a good trade for NE.

And primarily, why the bills won’t mortgage their future for one player is it’s practically impossible to mortgage your future on one player. 
 

[ndirish1978]

We desperately need DL help, but a big swing for a vet there likely takes us out of the running for upgrading OL, RB, WR. It's all a balancing act. 

[FilthyBeast]

15 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Kyle Pitts crossed my mind the other day when considering the above. Pitts, from my eye and many others was considered a can't miss once a decade TE. He looked the part at Florida. We had no need to trade draft picks to go after such a player but one could argue that type of elite talent would have been the difference maker in multiple games last season. It was sort of like when Moss went to New England. When you're close the value of an elite player is even more magnified. 

 

As teams get closer to winning the SB I feel it makes sense to shift resources from building a foundation towards high end talent. Those resources are cap usage and draft picks. We saw this with St Louis but that's not really why I suggest this. More a curiosity if we see the Bills change things up and take this approach. 

 

The way I see it is that Beane and company can still tout the 'Draft, develop and resign your own guys' philosophy in parallel to making a big move or two this year to get over the hump.

 

Because at the end of the day the window is only open so long in this league and having a franchise QB doesn't guarantee you are going to be in the SB picture every year. This was true even with the Patriots who who had a gap of a decade between their main championship runs with Brady. And the Chiefs are also smart enough to know they only have a few years left in their current window which is why they are primed to load up as well to do what it takes to win another SB in the near term.

 

Bottom line....high end talent matters and it's why the Rams and Bucs have won the last two SB by building quasi 'super teams' the last few years.

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

Agree.  Trust the Process of simply improving your overall roster year after year, mainly via the draft.   Especially with a 40m cap hit from one guy.   They had the SB this year, the ST coach pooped the bed at a critical moment in a single elimination tournament game.  The SB roster is there now.  

 

The SB coach isn't...unless McD and his staff begin playing for keeps and not to keep their collective head above water in 2022.  

 

As to the strategy changing: if McD is not willing to adjust his scheme and by relation how he think a roster should look then this past season will recur more often than not and SB's will elude the franchise.

 

Josh upped his game from 2018-19 to 2020-21.  Now it's the HC's turn.  

[CountDorkula]

15 hours ago, Rigotz said:

It depends on the age of your superstars.

 

If you have a 25 year old elite QB, you don't mortgage your future on winning short term.

If you have a 35+ or 40+ year old elite QB, the story changes.

 

There is almost zero chance the Bills should or would mortgage their future for one player.

The Randy Moss trade was for a 4th round pick. At the time, he looked awful and unmotivated on the Raiders. It was just a good trade for NE.

If Buffalo wants to mortgage the next 10 years of future to win a SB next year, sign me the hell up. 

[Ghs24mike]

The thing that people aren't considering is how much the cap was affected during the covid seasons. With that in mind the correction is going to be very large in the other direction. 

 

The NFL is king, revenue is up, TV deals are massive, fans coming back full force the cap is going to go up by larger margins than we have seen in the past. 

 

Pure speculation, but I think Beane can be a little more aggressive than we think and ride the cap up in the coming 2-3 years. Locking in key players now for the next 3-4 years is going to look like a bargain at the start of the 2024 season. 

 

You want your GM and coach to play coy, say there isnt much money, etc. I don't believe a single thing coming out of OBD right now. 

1 minute ago, Ghs24mike said:

The thing that people aren't considering is how much the cap was affected during the covid seasons. With that in mind the correction is going to be very large in the other direction. 

 

The NFL is king, revenue is up, TV deals are massive, fans coming back full force the cap is going to go up by larger margins than we have seen in the past. 

 

Pure speculation, but I think Beane can be a little more aggressive than we think and ride the cap up in the coming 2-3 years. Locking in key players now for the next 3-4 years is going to look like a bargain at the start of the 2024 season. 

 

You want your GM and coach to play coy, say there isnt much money, etc. I don't believe a single thing coming out of OBD right now. 

https://firstsportz.com/nfl-twitter-reacts-to-the-crazy-hike-in-salary-cap/

[FilthyBeast]

32 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

If Buffalo wants to mortgage the next 10 years of future to win a SB next year, sign me the hell up. 

 

Making a big trade or FA signing for a premier pass rusher is far from mortgaging the future.

 

But if you use the Rams approach and throw away your next 5 years with of top draft picks and also sign a bunch of guys to massive FA deals then sure you are selling out your future with the hopes of winning it all right away.

[Ghs24mike]

14 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Making a big trade or FA signing for a premier pass rusher is far from mortgaging the future.

 

But if you use the Rams approach and throw away your next 5 years with of top draft picks and also sign a bunch of guys to massive FA deals then sure you are selling out your future with the hopes of winning it all right away.

Agreed, we need to find something right in the middle of staying put and the Rams. 

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Let us also not forget the rich history they had in Cleveland 

 

4 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Cleveland to start, but let's not quibble. 😁

The Rams started in Cleveland but left because they did not think that they could compete with the Browns.  Their last season in Cleveland was the one before the Browns first.  IIRC they were only in Cleveland for about 10 years before moving to LA for something like 50.  Then to St Louis for 20ish and back to LA.  The Rams are much more LA’s team than anyone else’s. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by BarleyNY

[Starr Almighty]

16 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

You mean Los Angeles right?

They only left in 2015 give the guy time to get acclamated with the new name. It's still pretty recent. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The Rams started in Cleveland but left because they did not think that they could compete with the Browns.  Their last season in Cleveland was the one before the Browns first.  IIRC they were only in Cleveland for about 10 years before moving to LA for something like 50.  Then to St Louis for 20ish and back to LA.  The Rams are much more LA’s team than anyone else’s. 

Agreed.  The Cleveland Rams were an NFL team from 1937-45.

[billybrew1]

17 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Kyle Pitts crossed my mind the other day when considering the above. Pitts, from my eye and many others was considered a can't miss once a decade TE. He looked the part at Florida. We had no need to trade draft picks to go after such a player but one could argue that type of elite talent would have been the difference maker in multiple games last season. It was sort of like when Moss went to New England. When you're close the value of an elite player is even more magnified. 

 

As teams get closer to winning the SB I feel it makes sense to shift resources from building a foundation towards high end talent. Those resources are cap usage and draft picks. We saw this with St Louis but that's not really why I suggest this. More a curiosity if we see the Bills change things up and take this approach. 

No. What I think you are thinking of is a close team goes for it. A close team spends money in the future for players now. And that is absolutely correct. Most Super Bowl winners have done this save the pats who saved money because Tommy did not ask for top dollar.
Allen also chose to not take top dollar for a clean shot at the Super Bowl and every day it’s starting to look like more and more that the Pegulas aren’t going to give Josh a realistic shot at those Super Bowls…. Josh has to luck out and win it by himself. Most great SB winning QBs had good to great defenses. Much better than ours which features one blue chipper only.

[DrDawkinstein]

I believe the phrase was... "F$&% them picks"

 

Seemed to work for the Rams.

 

Agreed that once you are this close, the strategy changes. The "process" changes. Beane needs to be ready to strike while the iron is hot. I know McBeane want to build and maintain a perennial playoff team, but I'll take our chances at a couple of down years if we bring home a Super Bowl. For what it's worth, if/when the Bills win a Super Bowl I may take a year or two away from following football as it is (who am I kidding, I'll be there for every down).

 

 

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The Rams started in Cleveland but left because they did not think that they could compete with the Browns.  Their last season in Cleveland was the one before the Browns first.  IIRC they were only in Cleveland for about 10 years before moving to LA for something like 50.  Then to St Louis for 20ish and back to LA.  The Rams are much more LA’s team than anyone else’s. 

 

So Cleveland has multiple NFL teams that left to win Super Bowls while still having none of their own. Ouch.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

So Cleveland has multiple NFL teams that left to win Super Bowls while still having none of their own. Ouch.

Well, the Rams left after 1945.  The Browns did win 4 AAFC championships from 1946-1949 and 4 NFL championships in 1950, 1954, 1955 and 1964.  So they had a pretty good run immediately after the Rams left.   It’s since then that has been the issue. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by BarleyNY