cv05 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 So I've heard the win probability thrown around that at the 13 second mark the chiefs had a 5%, 1 in 20, chance to win (according to ESPN) Assuming the game goes to overtime, before the coin flip, each team has a 50% chance to win (1 in 2) Ignoring the case where the chiefs win with a TD in regulation, a tie had a probability of about 10% ( (1/2)x(Tie Probability)= 1/20) The question - is getting upset about a 10% likely scenario (chiefs tie it in 13 seconds) really fair? It rains in LA 1 in 10 days 🤷♂️. Also, does the probability from ESPN (1 in 20) account for the state of the teams at that moment? Mahomes and Allen were having their way with tired defenses - maybe the likelihood of gaining ~40-45 yards in 12 seconds with 3 timeouts was actually pretty good, even better than 10%. I don't know - I think looking at it this way at least makes me feel a bit better. I will out myself as being completely irrational over the last few days. I completely disagree with the defensive strategy, and was (to a lessor extent) against what happened with the kick. I have been just about as upset with McDermott as anyone. I had never been a huge fan (attributed team success to Allen, and McDermott more just getting in the way). But maybe we were up against more than we realized at that 13 second mark. I don't know - food for thought. 6 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Under reacting if anything 16 2 6 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 A day that will live in Bills infamy.. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Success Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I posted yesterday, but the mighty Belichick basically did the same in the 2018 AFCCG. KC had more time - 38 seconds - but only 1 timeout, and they went from their own 31 to New England's 20 in 18 seconds. 2 passes, just like against us. And BB didn't squib it, either. 13 seconds is like a minute+ for KC. And it would have been for Allen if the situation was reversed. It was terrible, but not that crazy. 5 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Thirteen seconds left, with three timeouts, just needing a FG, is not as miraculous as it's been made out to be. Especially with guys who have the arm talent of Allen & Mahomes. That said, no we are not. Three plays were needed to get them into FG range. The special teams unit screwed up the first play. Then the defense screwed up the next two. If 1 out of those 3 plays is executed properly, we win. 8 6 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I dont buy and never will the 5% shot at a field goal in 13 seconds, that was a wild ass guess, I would like to see the data behind that. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnnycage46 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Huge overreaction. People are off the rails right now. 2 1 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardyBoy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said: I dont buy and never will the 5% shot at a field goal in 13 seconds, that was a wild ass guess, I would like to see the data behind that. 13 seconds with 3 timeouts...huge difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Success said: I posted yesterday, but the mighty Belichick basically did the same in the 2018 AFCCG. KC had more time - 38 seconds - but only 1 timeout, and they went from their own 31 to New England's 20 in 18 seconds. 2 passes, just like against us. And BB didn't squib it, either. 13 seconds is like a minute+ for KC. And it would have been for Allen if the situation was reversed. It was terrible, but not that crazy. That was without timeouts as well. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If they gave up 40 yards in 13 seconds because Kelce made a great contested catch or Hill has an amazing run after catch then all well. The way it happened is the issue. They gave the FG attempt to them. 11 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blitzboy54 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Absolutely ****ing NOT 3 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Bob Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This is the second worst loss in team history. Fans are working through the grief of how bad that loss was and the opportunity that this team had if they were able to hold the lead. Some people are having completely understandable overreactions in the first few days after the loss. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 No 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, HardyBoy said: 13 seconds with 3 timeouts...huge difference. Timeouts or not. 13 seconds and they are starting at their 25. They never should have gotten into FG range. 30 seconds sure but 13 no way. 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Success said: I posted yesterday, but the mighty Belichick basically did the same in the 2018 AFCCG. KC had more time - 38 seconds - but only 1 timeout, and they went from their own 31 to New England's 20 in 18 seconds. 2 passes, just like against us. And BB didn't squib it, either. 13 seconds is like a minute+ for KC. And it would have been for Allen if the situation was reversed. It was terrible, but not that crazy. Yes but the game would have been over for 5 seconds as that took 18 seconds to go 49 yards vs. 45 yards Sunday!!!!!! You buried the lead...... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: If they gave up 40 yards in 13 seconds because Kelce made a great contested catch or Hill has an amazing run after catch then all well. The way it happened is the issue. They gave the FG attempt to them. This. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloMatt Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 A little bit .. . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cv05 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: If they gave up 40 yards in 13 seconds because Kelce made a great contested catch or Hill has an amazing run after catch then all well. The way it happened is the issue. They gave the FG attempt to them. Agreed with this completely - it is the biggest thing to struggle with I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Hmmm, are we overreacting? 🤔 Well let me be measured in my response: HELL NO!!!!!!!! From the botched kickoff, to not holding on the first down, to giving Kelce a free release on the second down(KELCE FFS!!!), WAS A DISGRACE! 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanSD Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: Huge overreaction. People are off the rails right now. Yep. We lost a coin-flip game in a weird way. It sucks, but man some of the people on this forum seem to think that the 2021 Bills are the first team to lose a playoff game. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HamptonBillsfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Don't delude yourself by accepting the loss as anything but an epic collapse by a coaching staff who thought the game was over. Sean, ST coach and Frazier played fast and loose with a loyal fanbase and one of the all time great and gutty QB performances that handed this conservative, defensive minded HC a ticket the SB. The 1st for this hungry football hotbed in 28 years. Shame on Sean,who answered the question of what the reasoning behind our approach to the 13 seconds was. "We just didn't execute " We deserve better. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerome007 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 27 minutes ago, SCBills said: Thirteen seconds left, with three timeouts, just needing a FG, is not as miraculous as it's been made out to be. Especially with guys who have the arm talent of Allen & Mahomes. That said, no we are not. Three plays were needed to get them into FG range. The special teams unit screwed up the first play. Then the defense screwed up the next two. If 1 out of those 3 plays is executed properly, we win. Good summary Not THAT impossible, unlikely, "miraculous". But the Bills had way more chances to stop them than the other way around. And they didn't. I saw a comment on a Youtube that made laugh regardless of the hurt. That on Kelce's catch just before the FB the Bills players near him acted like he had Covid and they had to keep away... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBear Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 FIRE MCDERMOTT AND FRAZIER = Yes, probably overreaction. JFC, HOW DID THAT ACTUALLY HAPPEN? HOW ARE WE NOT HOSTING A HOME AFCCG? HOW DID KELCE GET SO OPEN? WHY DOES GOD HATE US AND WANT US TO BE MISERABLE FOR A MINIMUM OF THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS? = probably just about the perfect reaction Wow. Great game! Bummer we lost, but, man, how great is Josh Allen and how lucky are we to have him? We've got a 10 year window of SB runs ahead of us. And, by the way, aren't those Chiefs fans great with their cheeky $13 donations? = Underreaction 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbo44 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nah not overreacting - it was coaching error at the worst time. Worse case scenario is it should have a desperation Hail Mary at the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WotAGuy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The defense kept KC within reach all game. So what do they do? Play some f-ed up defensive calls and allow KC to run through them like sheet through a goose. Mind boggling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extrahammer Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I would say the game is played over 60 minutes, not 13 seconds. Reality is the lead changed a dozen times in the last two minutes. But it's the typical irrational Bills fans that are making it worse, it's the same contingent that wanted RJ over Flutie without any real substance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said: Yep. We lost a coin-flip game in a weird way. It sucks, but man some of the people on this forum seem to think that the 2021 Bills are the first team to lose a playoff game. Come on man....now you know good-n-well it's much more to it than just a playoff loss lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franco_92 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I've felt less pain thinking of it as KC needing 2 plays to go at least 35 yards. They've done that countless times of course. But it was still a big screw up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
damj Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 36 minutes ago, cv05 said: So I've heard the win probability thrown around that at the 13 second mark the chiefs had a 5%, 1 in 20, chance to win (according to ESPN) Assuming the game goes to overtime, before the coin flip, each team has a 50% chance to win (1 in 2) Ignoring the case where the chiefs win with a TD in regulation, a tie had a probability of about 10% ( (1/2)x(Tie Probability)= 1/20) The question - is getting upset about a 10% likely scenario (chiefs tie it in 13 seconds) really fair? It rains in LA 1 in 10 days 🤷♂️. Also, does the probability from ESPN (1 in 20) account for the state of the teams at that moment? Mahomes and Allen were having their way with tired defenses - maybe the likelihood of gaining ~40-45 yards in 12 seconds with 3 timeouts was actually pretty good, even better than 10%. I don't know - I think looking at it this way at least makes me feel a bit better. I will out myself as being completely irrational over the last few days. I completely disagree with the defensive strategy, and was (to a lessor extent) against what happened with the kick. I have been just about as upset with McDermott as anyone. I had never been a huge fan (attributed team success to Allen, and McDermott more just getting in the way). But maybe we were up against more than we realized at that 13 second mark. I don't know - food for thought. Not at all. Epic failure that should lose someone their job. You play a soft zone ... let them catch underneath you for 10 yards. Not drop into a deep zone to prevent a hail mary and let them run 20 + yards underneath. 5 minutes ago, extrahammer said: I would say the game is played over 60 minutes, not 13 seconds. Reality is the lead changed a dozen times in the last two minutes. But it's the typical irrational Bills fans that are making it worse, it's the same contingent that wanted RJ over Flutie without any real substance. The worst coaching decision since 4th and stupid. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 No way you can say a team will tie the game one in ten times when down 3 with 13 seconds left. Try more like 1 in 50 or even 1 in 100. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 FWIW, WGR callers are at “Fire the coach and offer Belichick $10M if he come to Buffalo and wins a Super Bowl.” because getting Bill B will bring the community together! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
damj Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Heitz said: FWIW, WGR callers are at “Fire the coach and offer Belichick $10M if he come to Buffalo and wins a Super Bowl.” because getting Bill B will bring the community together! Yeah, well most of them are flaming idiots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cv05 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, ngbills said: No way you can say a team will tie the game one in ten times when down 3 with 13 seconds left. Try more like 1 in 50 or even 1 in 100. I guess the question is - how often do the Chiefs gain 40 yards in 2 plays? if you told me 1 in 10 I wouldn't disagree 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloMatt Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 23 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said: Yep. We lost a coin-flip game in a weird way. It sucks, but man some of the people on this forum seem to think that the 2021 Bills are the first team to lose a playoff game. Agreed. The Bills lost in a more dramatic fashion than the other three divisional games but not by much. Those all had WTF moments that the losing fanbases have been chewing on for the last three days 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, cv05 said: I guess the question is - how often do the Chiefs gain 40 yards in 2 plays? if you told me 1 in 10 I wouldn't disagree But would need to be adjusted for not caring at all about giving up 10 yards or having any pass rush or a running play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PetermansRedemption Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Fire Frazier 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extrahammer Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The same people losing their minds about this loss are the same ones who thought we had the game won even though 13 seconds were left. Have they learned nothing over the last few decades? Now they want to over analyze 13 seconds and dismiss the other 59 minutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HamSandwhich Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: Under reacting if anything A day that will live in Bills infancy is more like it, we are just getting started. We are in the infancy stages of a great run at multiple SBs. Edited January 26, 2022 by HamSandwhich 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 24 minutes ago, arcane said: I've felt less pain thinking of it as KC needing 2 plays to go at least 35 yards. They've done that countless times of course. But it was still a big screw up They went 44.... Is the FG good from 57???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cv05 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Billsfan1972 said: They went 44.... Is the FG good from 57???? That specific kick probably was unfortunately. They have an awesome kicker... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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