Are we over-reacting to the 13 seconds?

[cv05]

• So I've heard the win probability thrown around that at the 13 second mark the chiefs had a 5%, 1 in 20, chance to win (according to ESPN)
• Assuming the game goes to overtime, before the coin flip, each team has a 50% chance to win (1 in 2)
• Ignoring the case where the chiefs win with a TD in regulation, a tie had a probability of about 10% ( (1/2)x(Tie Probability)= 1/20) 

 

The question - is getting upset about a 10% likely scenario (chiefs tie it in 13 seconds) really fair? It rains in LA 1 in 10 days 🤷‍♂️. Also, does the probability from ESPN (1 in 20) account for the state of the teams at that moment? Mahomes and Allen were having their way with tired defenses - maybe the likelihood of gaining ~40-45 yards in 12 seconds with 3 timeouts was actually pretty good, even better than 10%. I don't know - I think looking at it this way at least makes me feel a bit better.

 

I will out myself as being completely irrational over the last few days. I completely disagree with the defensive strategy, and was (to a lessor extent) against what happened with the kick. I have been just about as upset with McDermott as anyone. I had never been a huge fan (attributed team success to Allen, and McDermott more just getting in the way). But maybe we were up against more than we realized at that 13 second mark. I don't know - food for thought. 

[Big Turk]

Under reacting if anything

[Aussie Joe]

A day that will live in Bills infamy..

[Success]

I posted yesterday, but the mighty Belichick basically did the same in the 2018 AFCCG.  KC had more time - 38 seconds - but only 1 timeout, and they went from their own 31 to New England's 20 in 18 seconds.  2 passes, just like against us.

 

And BB didn't squib it, either.

 

13 seconds is like a minute+ for KC.  And it would have been for Allen if the situation was reversed.  It was terrible, but not that crazy.

 

[SCBills]

Thirteen seconds left, with three timeouts, just needing a FG, is not as miraculous as it's been made out to be.  Especially with guys who have the arm talent of Allen & Mahomes.

 

That said, no we are not.  

 

Three plays were needed to get them into FG range.  The special teams unit screwed up the first play.  Then the defense screwed up the next two.  If 1 out of those 3 plays is executed properly, we win.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

I dont buy and never will the 5% shot at a field goal in 13 seconds, that was a wild ass guess, I would like to see the data behind that.

[Johnnycage46]

Huge overreaction.  People are off the rails right now.

[HardyBoy]

1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I dont buy and never will the 5% shot at a field goal in 13 seconds, that was a wild ass guess, I would like to see the data behind that.

 

13 seconds with 3 timeouts...huge difference.

[Billl]

4 minutes ago, Success said:

I posted yesterday, but the mighty Belichick basically did the same in the 2018 AFCCG.  KC had more time - 38 seconds - but only 1 timeout, and they went from their own 31 to New England's 20 in 18 seconds.  2 passes, just like against us.

 

And BB didn't squib it, either.

 

13 seconds is like a minute+ for KC.  And it would have been for Allen if the situation was reversed.  It was terrible, but not that crazy.

 

That was without timeouts as well.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

If they gave up 40 yards in 13 seconds because Kelce made a great contested catch or Hill has an amazing run after catch then all well. The way it happened is the issue. They gave the FG attempt to them.

[blitzboy54]

Absolutely ****ing NOT 

[Jim Bob]

This is the second worst loss in team history.

 

Fans are working through the grief of how bad that loss was and the opportunity that this team had if they were able to hold the lead.

 

Some people are having completely understandable overreactions in the first few days after the loss. 

[Pokebball]

No

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

 

13 seconds with 3 timeouts...huge difference.

 

Timeouts or not. 13 seconds and they are starting at their 25. They never should have gotten into FG range. 30 seconds sure but 13 no way.

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, Success said:

I posted yesterday, but the mighty Belichick basically did the same in the 2018 AFCCG.  KC had more time - 38 seconds - but only 1 timeout, and they went from their own 31 to New England's 20 in 18 seconds.  2 passes, just like against us.

 

And BB didn't squib it, either.

 

13 seconds is like a minute+ for KC.  And it would have been for Allen if the situation was reversed.  It was terrible, but not that crazy.

 

Yes but the game would have been over for 5 seconds as that took 18 seconds to go 49 yards vs. 45 yards Sunday!!!!!!  

 

You buried the lead......

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If they gave up 40 yards in 13 seconds because Kelce made a great contested catch or Hill has an amazing run after catch then all well. The way it happened is the issue. They gave the FG attempt to them.

 

This. 

[BuffaloMatt]

A little bit .. . . 

[cv05]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If they gave up 40 yards in 13 seconds because Kelce made a great contested catch or Hill has an amazing run after catch then all well. The way it happened is the issue. They gave the FG attempt to them.

Agreed with this completely - it is the biggest thing to struggle with I guess.

[JMM]

Hmmm, are we overreacting? 🤔 Well let me be measured in my response: HELL NO!!!!!!!! From the botched kickoff, to not holding on the first down, to giving Kelce a free release on the second down(KELCE FFS!!!), WAS A DISGRACE! 

[BillsFanSD]

18 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

Huge overreaction.  People are off the rails right now.

Yep.  We lost a coin-flip game in a weird way.  It sucks, but man some of the people on this forum seem to think that the 2021 Bills are the first team to lose a playoff game.