Base for Edmunds extension? D Leonard signs 5 years 99 million

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Edmunds has to be one of the worst pro bowl selections of all time. Go watch the first patriots game. He was getting run over all game long. 
 

It will be hard to recover from signing 20mil/year replacement level player.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I mean…that guy is a fringe top 20 player in the NFL. Edmunds might not be that much better then a guy we could take in round 2 next year. No. You don’t give him a deal like that. Milano is the best LB on the team. Edmunds needs to start playing faster and not over thinking or he’s going to be one of the guys that becomes a casualty of war cap wise.

 

I don't think Leonard is any better than top 50 overall.........the players voted Leonard #59 last year and he actually had a bit of a down year.......but I agree with the rest of your points.

 

Edmund's production has been modest enough that he could still be unseated if he doesn't start making plays.

 

And Milano,  when healthy,  has clearly been the better player.

 

And the issue with Edmunds is definitely being a tick too slow to read and react..........his athletic ability allows him to achieve the basics and put up tackle numbers...........but that late reaction leads to tackles near the LOS instead of behind it........missed opportunities to dislodge the ball from runners or to pounce on fumbles..........and would-be interceptions bouncing off him as he reacts like he had no idea whatsoever that the ball could be coming his way.

[Rochesterfan]

17 hours ago, NewEra said:

Wasn’t this already decided when Warner signed?  How does Darius change things?  The second Warner signed, Darius’ floor was set.  

 

The SPOTRAC guy I heard the earlier this summer basically stated the Warner deal has a 2024 out with additional voidable years - setting his true base salary at around 15.1 million.

 

That was the top contract and most will agree that Edmunds was not quite as good as Warner - therefore the SPOTRAC team slotted Edmunds at around 13 million. 

 

Mike from SPOTRAC then stated that Beane has typically beat their projects by about 1 - 1.5 million with re-signs - so the expected was 12-13 million AAV.  Whether he was worth it or not - is a totally different debate - that was the SPOTRAC projection.

 

Now with Darius signing at close to 20 million AAV - just like when any new QB signs or when Tre’ got paid at CB - it resets the negotiation points.  Edmunds is not as good as Darius - so his agents will be trying to slot him someplace under Darius - the new salary setter.  The belief is the Edmunds team will use Warner as their new floor rather than the ceiling and try to slot in right around Warner’s numbers now that their is a higher point.

 

It is exactly like what happened in Dallas with Dak.  They had a shot at a 30+ million AAV several years ago and couldn’t get it done.  The next year it went to over 35 million AAV and then finally they got the deal done at 40 million AAV.  Dallas waited 2 years at come to an agreement and it cost them about 10 million in AAV and cost them the added bonus of the last year of his rookie deal to spread a hit over - making his a truly 40 million AAV - where as even with Josh signing for more his 2 additional years (5th year option and last year of rookie deal) push his true AAV down to 36 + million.

 

Dak wasn’t the 2nd best QB - just like Edmunds isn’t the second best off ball LB, but the timing makes or breaks these guys and it made Dak a ton of money and my feeling is it knocked Edmunds out of the Bills future plans.

[Rochesterfan]

15 hours ago, Virgil said:

Spodrac has his projected value around 13 mil per year.  If the cap breaks 200 mil, I wouldn’t be against it, but I still want to see him take a step forward as a playmaker for that much.  

 

Mike from SPOTRAC was on WGR at one point and mentioned this.  The projection is 13 million with the current signing.  Mike suggested Edmunds needed to be signed next because he thought Darius was going to break 20 million (this was prior to that signing being announced) and it would reset the off ball LB market higher with Edmunds closer to 15-17 million AAV.

[JaCrispy]

10 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Some players the Bills will have to let walk. If Epenesa. Rousseau, and Basham hsow promise we can go cheap at DE for 3 years. That would help cover the cost of Edmunds. So it's possible they can sign him and keep most of the defense together. Move on from Hughes and Addison. 

 

Right now though I'm letting Edmunds and Oliver walk. I think the Bills value draft picks though and will try to keep both. Oliver still has a couple more years to prove his worth. 

If the Bills are forward thinking enough (like Belichick) they don’t have to let ether walk...

[colin]

he's either gonna play his way into a similar contract, or just get let go (after 5th year).  he's got this season and post season, and outside chance of some of the following season to do so.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

If the Bills are forward thinking enough (like Belichick) they don’t have to let ether walk...

Belichick let players walk all the time. 

[BuffaloBill]

13 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

We’ve patiently been waiting for him to hit that ceiling at MLB.... perhaps this is the year.....if we see the same inconsistency, and lack of big plays from him, I’d say the roof has caved in. 

 

So consistent praise from his teammates, coaches and being selected to the pro bowl twice in three years = the roof caving in? I guess the foundation would have also caved had he happened to be selected as the MVP. Yes, there is acknowledgement that he needs to step up with game changing plays. That is simply decoration on the icing which is on the cake. The fans perspective on this guy is simply baffling to me.   

[HOUSE]

I left my wallet in the car

 

 

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

23 hours ago, BTB said:

All I know is, if this is anywhere near the money that Edmunds will command, I hope it is with another team. 😉

Would anyone dislike it if he stayed in the AFCE even? He's the type of LB we'd look to for a big ground day and pick on

[JaCrispy]

23 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Belichick let players walk all the time. 

Not if teams were offering draft picks...his reputation was getting compensation for good players before their contracts expired...

Edited August 9, 2021 by JaCrispy

[SoCal Deek]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Belichick let players walk all the time. 

You beat me to it. One key to the Patriots run was that players were willing to go there just to get a ring. Anyone who asked for too much glory or money was shown the door.

[Chuck Schick]

I wonder if there are guys over on the Colts board repeatedly bringing up Leonard's whiff on Josh during one of his TD runs in the playoff game as a reason he shouldn't have gotten paid big $$?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

Not if teams were offering draft picks...his reputation was getting compensation for good players before their contracts expired...

He traded some players like Jamie Collins and Richard Seymour but others he's let walk and collected the compensatory picks. 

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

The SPOTRAC guy I heard the earlier this summer basically stated the Warner deal has a 2024 out with additional voidable years - setting his true base salary at around 15.1 million.

 

That was the top contract and most will agree that Edmunds was not quite as good as Warner - therefore the SPOTRAC team slotted Edmunds at around 13 million. 

 

Mike from SPOTRAC then stated that Beane has typically beat their projects by about 1 - 1.5 million with re-signs - so the expected was 12-13 million AAV.  Whether he was worth it or not - is a totally different debate - that was the SPOTRAC projection.

 

Now with Darius signing at close to 20 million AAV - just like when any new QB signs or when Tre’ got paid at CB - it resets the negotiation points.  Edmunds is not as good as Darius - so his agents will be trying to slot him someplace under Darius - the new salary setter.  The belief is the Edmunds team will use Warner as their new floor rather than the ceiling and try to slot in right around Warner’s numbers now that their is a higher point.

 

It is exactly like what happened in Dallas with Dak.  They had a shot at a 30+ million AAV several years ago and couldn’t get it done.  The next year it went to over 35 million AAV and then finally they got the deal done at 40 million AAV.  Dallas waited 2 years at come to an agreement and it cost them about 10 million in AAV and cost them the added bonus of the last year of his rookie deal to spread a hit over - making his a truly 40 million AAV - where as even with Josh signing for more his 2 additional years (5th year option and last year of rookie deal) push his true AAV down to 36 + million.

 

Dak wasn’t the 2nd best QB - just like Edmunds isn’t the second best off ball LB, but the timing makes or breaks these guys and it made Dak a ton of money and my feeling is it knocked Edmunds out of the Bills future plans.

Good info.  I didn’t look into the logistics of Warner’s potential outs until now.  After the 2023 season (bosa’s 5th year option season I believe) they can release him with a 16M dead cap hit.  

that said….I can’t see Edmunds agent allowing him to sign and extension for less than 15M per.  We shall see. 

[McBean]

I haven’t read a single post in this thread but just wanted to say no way is Tremaine worth anywhere near what Leonard just got.

 

Let him walk.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He traded some players like Jamie Collins and Richard Seymour but others he's let walk and collected the compensatory picks. 

Regardless of how they left, the point is that Belichick did what McDermott and Beane have said they are going to do - keep their key talent.  By implication, they've said they'll let good players go who aren't key plays.  So, we saw Lawson walk.  Good player, likely contributor in the future, but not a core player. Belichick got himself a franchise quarterback and went out of his way to have a shut down corner.   After that, pretty much no one's job was secure.  It began way back with Lawyer Milloy.  People thought Milloy was a star, but he was just a very good player in Belichick's system. 

 

That's the lens to view Edmunds through.   Is he a key player?   Is he at the core of what the Bills are trying to do?   What Belichick taught is that there are very few of those guys.   So, I won't be surprised if Edmunds is gone after his rookie deal.  Edmunds has to be seen as crucial to the success of the defense.   

 

The question is who are the players that the Bills will pay anything to keep them?   The answer for McBeane is, I think, the same as the answer for Belichick - not many.  Pay anything to keep Allen - they just did that.  Probably pay anything to keep White.   I'd say that Edmunds is the only other guy possibly in that category on the defense.    There's a point at which Beane would say Hyde and Poyer aren't worth a fortune.  No one on the defensive line is in a position to demand big money.  Only Edmunds, and that's not because his play has been outstanding from an individual performance point of view.  If, and it's a big IF, the Bills will pay anything to keep him, it will because he is the only player in the league with the skill set that allows Frazier and McDermott to organize the defense the way they want.  

 

How can Edmunds be an absolute keeper?   Well, I think of it strictly geographically.  If you draw a line around the space that Edmunds effectively can defend in McDermott's pass defense scheme, it's probably a bigger space than any other player in the league can defend.   That, in turn, means everyone else in the pass defense has less space to defend, which means the corner backs can be more effective against the wide outs.  That would make Edmunds a very valuable asset, and more or less irreplaceable.  There just aren't many 6'5" linebackers with his reach, his athleticism, his speed, and his attitude.  If a guy like that is critical to the defense, Beane will pay him.

 

Is Edmunds that guy?   I don't know.  I don't understand the defense well enough to know.  What I do know is that McBeane will operate like Belichick - they will not be afraid to lose players whom the fans and the media may think are important players.  

Edited August 9, 2021 by Shaw66

[FilthyBeast]

If Edmunds plays anything close to Leornard this year than sure but IMO he's another guy that isn't as good as the hype and really needs to explode this year and prove he's the long term answer at the position.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

So consistent praise from his teammates, coaches and being selected to the pro bowl twice in three years = the roof caving in? I guess the foundation would have also caved had he happened to be selected as the MVP. Yes, there is acknowledgement that he needs to step up with game changing plays. That is simply decoration on the icing which is on the cake. The fans perspective on this guy is simply baffling to me.   

 

 

He needs to become a game changing, playmaking player to be worth $15M-$20M.............but if you think that's all he needs to improve on you are wrong.

 

He is inconsistent at the basics.

 

Angles,  tackling...........and last season his response to QB manipulation was profoundly concerning.........hence his heinous passer rating and passing TD's allowed numbers.

 

Consistency is the more common criticism of him from the analysts/scouts............and those are people who don't have to worry about paying him top dollar.

 

Personally,  I can live with some inconsistency from a defensive player on a team where the offense will have opposing offenses trying to keep up.............that's where the big plays come in.   Sacks, TFL, FF, scoop and score, pick six..........I almost can't imagine him ever doing the latter two the way he has played........and these plays are more important than the fraction of a yard average in run defense they might gain.   

 

Paying Edmunds $15M-$20M based on what he's done NOW would be like paying Josh Allen $43M per after his 2019 season.........he made almost unprecedented strides to get to that figure. 

 

The pro bowl stuff is irrelevant........there simply aren't many above average MLB/ILB's in the NFL.........and most teams are fine with that because it's a passing league. 

 

[Mango]

On 8/8/2021 at 8:59 AM, JGMcD2 said:

Edmunds will get between $70-$80M over 4 years. 
 

He won’t sniff a Leonard deal… just not the same caliber guy. 

 

Huh? Leonard got 5 years $99M. Add a 5th year to the deal you laid out and her is right there. 

[Ramza86]

Doubt Edmunds is offered half of that.

[unbillievable]

I would rather have AJ Klein start then waste 20mil/yr on Edmunds.

 

He should get less than Milano.

[ColoradoBills]

With a decent performance this year I suspect the Spotrac prediction of 6 year at $14M is probably pretty spot on.

The first couple of years would be in the $12M category and IF the guaranteed money wasn't too steep I can see that happening.

 

If Beane and the Bills don't want to sign him for that some other team probably will.

They went 6 years due to his young age and would be 30 years old at the end of the contract.

If Edmunds did a "Milano" type deal which was a bit team friendly I would cut off $1M per.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tremaine-edmunds-25111/market-value/

 

[Billl]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

What I do know is that McBeane will operate like Belichick - they will not be afraid to lose players whom the fans and the media may think are important players.  

That's an interesting point, and Edmunds may wind up testing your theory if he doesn't have a true breakout season.  With Milano already getting a second deal, you're looking at a lot of money potentially tied up in 4-3 LBs.

 

If guys like Epenesa and Oliver step up and provide a pass rush, there might be budget for him.  Otherwise, I don't see how you can afford to throw more big money at the second level if there is still no solution to the pass rush. Obviously they've spent a lot of draft capital looking for the answer, but if the answer doesn't reveal itself this season, some of that money is going to have to go towards an established guy, and they aren't cheap.

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, Billl said:

That's an interesting point, and Edmunds may wind up testing your theory if he doesn't have a true breakout season.  With Milano already getting a second deal, you're looking at a lot of money potentially tied up in 4-3 LBs.

 

If guys like Epenesa and Oliver step up and provide a pass rush, there might be budget for him.  Otherwise, I don't see how you can afford to throw more big money at the second level if there is still no solution to the pass rush. Obviously they've spent a lot of draft capital looking for the answer, but if the answer doesn't reveal itself this season, some of that money is going to have to go towards an established guy, and they aren't cheap.

I think that's a very good way to look at it.  I love the idea of Edmunds, but I'm in the camp that says he has to play at a different level before he gets a big payday to stay in Buffalo.  

 

You're right about the money spent at linebacker.  But it seems like what they're hoping for is Edmunds to force the Bills to write a big check, and that will mean McDermott will have to function with two expensive LBs and some journeyman the Bills get make work for a year or two.  

 

A global description of what McDermott is doing is first, focus on the pass.  The pass is the way to success in the NFL, so focus on passing really well, and focus on stopping the passing game.   That's the number one priority, evident both in the Bills offense and their defense.  Next, on defense, how are we going to prevent being overrun by the pass?   By preventing the deep ball, by limiting passing success to shorter passes, ideally behind the sticks.  How are we going to do that?  Well, we're going to have a bunch of smart, disciplined DBs, good athletes, and they're going to play complex coverages.  Those coverages demand that we have some really good pass defending linebackers, just two, really, because we're in nickel so often.   We can't afford to blitz much, because these guys are going to be specialized pass defenders.   If they're not going to blitz much, that means the pressure has to come from the front four.  Enter Oliver, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham.  

 

It's also interesting how all this drives the run defense.  What do the Bills have to stop the run?   Well, six strong quick guys, guys who stay quick by keeping their weight down.  (Actually, it's like they're wrestlers.)  They're built that way to stop the pass, so how are those six going to stop the run?   Well, the Bills are still figuring that out.  

 

None of which is to say Edmunds is the guy to pair with Milano to be those linebackers.   Milano was kept at what seemed to be an appropriate cost.   In another year, we'll find out whether the Bills will be willing to pay the "appropriate cost" to keep Edmunds.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Shaw66

[TheBeaneBandit]

Give that kind of money to a CB to pair with White or a game wrecking pass rusher. That would be money spent much more wisely.

[machine gun kelly]

Leonard’s deal has no bearing on Edmunds.  He must even know he’s not the same guy.  Beane will give him a fair deal and Wsmunds will chase $, as someone will offer more, or he’ll know he has the best shot at a SB ring if he stays here.

[billsfan89]

I can see the Bills drafting a LB up high to replace Edumonds. That's not to say I don't think Edumonds isn't a good player and a valuable piece to the defense. But this team has handed Josh Allen, White, Milano, D.Williams and Dawkins all big extensions and has Diggs on a sizable deal too. While there are some veteran players set to fall off the books in the next 1-2 years (Mitch, Butler, Sanders, Addison, Hughes and several other possibly) Josh's extension makes add another big 15ish million dollar aav contract to the books a bit harder to do. Hopefully they can keep him at a good rate but he might be the one that gets too rich for Beane. 

[without a drought]

He was ranked #1 player currently wearing #49 in the league.

[JerseyBills]

On 8/8/2021 at 8:55 AM, Allen2Diggs said:

Edmunds is nowhere near the level of Leonard. He's worth half that based on his level of play.

Agreed but he could get to his level,  I'm still very confident he makes a jump. 

Edmunds is more physically gifted too.

 

If for some reason we don't pay him, which I'd highly highly doubt, another team would be happy to pay him that 5 yrs 80 mil range.

[Victory Formation]

I think with what Edmunds brings to the table and what his role is and what we use him for, he just isn’t worth paying $13M, $14M+ a season to.

 

I think if Edmunds gets paid big dollars, it’s going to be by a team that wishes to use him as a pass rushing LB. Similar to the way the Cardinals use Reddick and similar to the way the Bucs use Barrett.

 

Edmunds will never be an Urlacher, Kuechly or Lewis type of MLB. He does not have the instincts for that. He could thrive however in a defense where his responsibilities are dumbed down a bit, but we just inked Milano to a blockbuster deal to fill that void, so I’m having a hard time thinking that Buffalo will also sign Edmunds to big deal as well, given that we run lots of two LB sets with a big nickel, so he will primarily be a Mike if he stays here and not a WLB.

 

Edmunds has not reached his ceiling, mainly because he is playing out of position. He has more value to other teams than he does Buffalo. Once again, as a pass rushing LB who can drop into coverage, he’s quite useful, especially since he has positional versatility and experience as an ILB as well, but ultimately, the Bills chose Milano to fill that role here, not Edmunds. Paying Edmunds big money to play out of position could prove to be deadly for Buffalo. Not only because Edmunds is a liability at MLB, but also because we would be paying big money to keep him, especially when he would have more value playing for other teams at a different position, ie WLB.

 

Ultimately, I think we made a mistake keeping Milano. Buffalo should have drafted or signed a true MLB and Edmunds should have been bumped out to WLB.