Mock drafts indicating that the top end of draft will be QB & WR focused - does this ignore BPA philosophy?

[BuffaloBill]

In the pass happy NFL no doubt that QB’s and receivers are critical to a teams success. However, to me it seems teams are reaching hard for both positions at the expense of the best player available philosophy. It may be that teams in their weighting believe that a given QB or WR is the BPA but history has suggested that both positions are risky picks at the top of the draft.

 

The good news for the Bills is that if the predictions play out there may be some surprise players available at 30. Probably not a premier DE that we would love to see but maybe CB, interior o-line or 2’nd tier (i.e not premier level) DE.

 

Your thoughts?

[nucci]

Possibly but it is very difficult to win without a good QB and WRs helps a QB. Just look at how much the Bills improved with Allen and Diggs

[PetermansRedemption]

I love the mocks that show five QB’s going in the top 20. I’d love to see it, but it’s just so rare to see. Even QB’s going 1,2,3 would blow my mind. I think 2 ends up being BPA. But who knows. Can’t wait to find out. 

[glazeduck]

Pretty simple: QB trumps everything else. If you don't have one, you have to take one. 

 

The top WRs are pretty special too, special players go at the top of the draft.

 

In the top 10-12 we'll likely see 5 QBs and 3 WRs go (see above) along with a TE, a LT, and likely a CB and DE -- all special. 

2 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I love the mocks that show five QB’s going in the top 20. I’d love to see it, but it’s just so rare to see. Even QB’s going 1,2,3 would blow my mind. I think 2 ends up being BPA. But who knows. Can’t wait to find out. 

It's going to happen. The market to trade up for a QB is simply too strong to not either take one or trade back. Lawrence and Wilson are locked in at 1 and 2, and the 9ers did not spend 3 1st round picks to not take a QB of the future. 3-3 is a lock, and the other 2 won't be too far behind.

[blacklabel]

Happens almost every year with the QBs. Teams target a guy and then the smokescreens and the rumors go out and teams get nervous that their guy isn't gonna make it to them so they start to wheel and deal to move up. And then some poor kid gets way overdrafted and ends up struggling to be the face of some franchise that pushes him into that spot. 

 

With the WRs, it's now one of the premier positions kids wanna play. Especially now that more and more college teams adapt to the pass-happy offenses where they really want two big time receivers on the boundaries. Some teams get lucky and end up with two kids that will go onto be an NFL teams #1 (the LSU guys come to mind, Jefferson up in Minnesota, and Chase to Cincinnati if Joey B gets his way). And the classes lately have been pretty stacked which I also think creates these first round runs on the position. 

[papazoid]

BPA is alive and well EXCEPT at QB

[TBBills]

Never was a BPA... It was always BPA (According to need)

[GunnerBill]

I think the top 4 QBs and the top 3 WRs are all top 12 players in the class. So not really. 

[Big Turk]

I think what people fail to realize is that BPA also takes into account their general importance in a scheme and weights those positions most important a little heavier.

 

Additionally teams need to account for how big a drop off there is between prospects at a position...if say WR has 3 or 4 top flight guys and then there is a huge drop off but OT doesn't have much of a dropoff between the top guys and the next tier then a team might take the WR first even tho the OT might have a higher grade because they think they can get an OT later that will better than the WR they could get later.

 

A lot at play that BPA doesn't really take into account.

[Victory Formation]

I really do think it will be front seven. I have a hard time believing anything else.

[BuffaloBill]

58 minutes ago, nucci said:

Possibly but it is very difficult to win without a good QB and WRs helps a QB. Just look at how much the Bills improved with Allen and Diggs

Part of the point is that Diggs was not selected in round 1 much less near the top of the draft. For a more recent example look at Davis on the Bills who is becoming a good, maybe very good (elite?) receiver who was taken in the 4th round. WR’s usually take a couple of seasons to develop. It seems risky to take them in early picks.

[hondo in seattle]

I doubt if any team drafts purely according to BPA. 

 

My guess is that they all blend BPA with need.

[Don Otreply]

Strict / the very BPA overall has always been a myth for the most part, perpetuated by teams to convince themselves , their opponents, and their fans that they are making the correct selection at each point of the draft process.  Humans, what else would you expect, it’s what we do...
 

BPA at a position of need on the other hand is in fact what the draft is and has always been since its inception.  It is all need driven, otherwise, why in hades would a team select a player they don’t have a need for?  It just doesn’t ever happen.  
   
A faster stronger more agile better player than a team currently has at every position is always need for every team.  Good GMs think this way, but position of need prioritizes the order of selection. 
 

There is a saying that was made famous during a winter Olympic build up some years ago,  I’m paraphrasing here, it goes like this,  “ I’m not looking for the best players, I’m looking for the right players”  Beane could have said that...

 

 Anyway...

 

Go Bills!!!

[US Egg]

Defense 1st, draft wise, with this Bills team.

 

Unless, one thinks last seasons offense was a figment of ones imagination.

 

 

[K-9]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Part of the point is that Diggs was not selected in round 1 much less near the top of the draft. For a more recent example look at Davis on the Bills who is becoming a good, maybe very good (elite?) receiver who was taken in the 4th round. WR’s usually take a couple of seasons to develop. It seems risky to take them in early picks.

I appreciate the point, but some WR prospects develop from a much higher starting point than others. 

[BarleyNY]

Blend of best available, positional/scheme importance, need and scarcity.  

[PrimeTime101]

Some don't understand what BPA really means. It has been argued on these forums and others many times over again. Some think BPA is Best player available. Period. This just simply isn't true and I will give an example. Lets say your the Buffalo Bills and you have the 15th pick. Your up and the best player available is a QB that should of gone at #3 but you already have your franchise QB and a darn good back up what do you do?

 

You try to trade back in the draft but no one wants to bite. Do you draft BPA or do you draft BPA at Need? What does BPA stand for? How many teams in our case would pick that QB? answer is no one.. so you look at your need list. We looking for CB, OT, Edge (examples)  who is there at those positions? then you pick it.

 

The BPA is over used without true meaning.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

Passing attack should be the overwhelming focus of every team in the league.

 

Just remember, "best player available" is kind of a myth, b/c no one really knows who the best player available really is at any point in the draft, and more often than not, the teams are *wrong* in terms of who they take.

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

If Zaven Collins is there at 30 and the Bills pass on him like they did Metcalf and Chinn in prior drafts, I’ll be perturbed but will live with their decision 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

BPA is not a thing.  Never has been.  Teams draft for need by taking who they have highest on their board at a position of need.  

Name one pick that McD or Beane has made in the first four rounds that was not a need?  White - they just let Gilmore walk.  Edmunds and Allen - everyone knew they wanted to draft a QB and they let P. Brown walk.  Knox - pretty sure at the time he was drafted only 1 other TE was on the roster.  They had so few prospects at TE they drafted two in the same draft.  Oliver - Kyle had just retired.  Moss - Gore was not brought back. 

Maybe Singletary was not a true need at the time of the draft but it became obvious the plan was to cut McCoy making the pick of Singletary a need so they coudl move on from McCoy. 

[oldmanfan]

Every  body is going to overreach for QBs like they always do.  Look at Josh's draft.  All but him either have had uneven progress or have/are bombing out.   Same will happen this year.  I project only one of the top 4 will become really good, and the best may wind up being the kid from Alabama who's not in the top 4.

[MJS]

No teams actually follow BPA. Some follow it within reason. For instance, if a QB is the top player on your board in round 1 and you are the Bills, you would be foolish to take that player. So yes, you violate the BPA philosophy and look at other players.

 

And it's the same for other positions too, but less so.

 

So the true philosophy is BPA within reason, considering positional value, scheme fit, etc.

[MJS]

12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Every  body is going to overreach for QBs like they always do.  Look at Josh's draft.  All but him either have had uneven progress or have/are bombing out.   Same will happen this year.  I project only one of the top 4 will become really good, and the best may wind up being the kid from Alabama who's not in the top 4.

I mean, three QB's from Allen's draft all went to the playoffs and won games. One of them was MVP one year. I'd say it is turning out to be quite a strong draft.

 

But yes, there are QB's that are over drafted all the time. But it makes sense. You can't really compete without a good QB.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

I mean, three QB's from Allen's draft all went to the playoffs and won games. One of them was MVP one year. I'd say it is turning out to be quite a strong draft.

 

But yes, there are QB's that are over drafted all the time. But it makes sense. You can't really compete without a good QB.

I would do what Beane did.  That wasn’t too much of a coat.  There is no way I’d trade say three first round picks to move to draft a guy.  I only do something like that for a guy who’s shown he can do it in the league.

[wagne591]

As much as I would like to get Travis Etienne, I think we will draft heavy on the Defense. Our weakest spot on the team IMO is the D-Line especially ends (and age has a lot to do with it). We have dinosaurs playing both ends (Hughs, and Addison) we need an influx of youth at that position, so I see maybe two or three DE's drafted. It would not surprise me if Etienne is sitting there at 30 and we draft him and later in the draft trade Moss or Singletary away. Just my opinion. If we can stay young and get better that is good too.

 

[YoloinOhio]

QBs don’t factor into BPA in the 1st round if a team is in the market for one 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

In the pass happy NFL no doubt that QB’s and receivers are critical to a teams success. However, to me it seems teams are reaching hard for both positions at the expense of the best player available philosophy. It may be that teams in their weighting believe that a given QB or WR is the BPA but history has suggested that both positions are risky picks at the top of the draft.

 

The good news for the Bills is that if the predictions play out there may be some surprise players available at 30. Probably not a premier DE that we would love to see but maybe CB, interior o-line or 2’nd tier (i.e not premier level) DE.

 

Your thoughts?

 

 

 

Without even reading, I'm sure this has already been said here. But still ...

 

Pure BPA is used extremely rarely. It is mitigated, for just about every team and every year. By two or three factors.

 

First and most important it's mitigated by team needs. The Bills simply are not going to draft a quarterback in the first round this year, no matter if they think that one is there and he's sticking out as the best player. Not going to happen. It's BPA at a position of need.

 

Second is position value. Guards and RBs go early in the first only for players who appear to be once-a-decade guys. Generally if you need a guard but you're drafting at #12 and you think that a guard is the 12th-best player, the best player left, you're still going to go LT if you have a need there and an LT is close to BPA. 

 

There are more: scheme fit, culture fit, lack of self-destructive habits, etc. 

 

And QB is so far beyond any other position in position value that it makes sense to take a shot. You're still screwed if you pick badly. But teams without franchise QBs don't have a realistic chance of doing anything significant.

 

Pretty much every good team follows a BPA strategy, but it is absolutely mitigated.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Thurman#1

[TheBeaneBandit]

2 hours ago, wagne591 said:

As much as I would like to get Travis Etienne, I think we will draft heavy on the Defense. Our weakest spot on the team IMO is the D-Line especially ends (and age has a lot to do with it). We have dinosaurs playing both ends (Hughs, and Addison) we need an influx of youth at that position, so I see maybe two or three DE's drafted. It would not surprise me if Etienne is sitting there at 30 and we draft him and later in the draft trade Moss or Singletary away. Just my opinion. If we can stay young and get better that is good too.

 

Yeah if Etienne is the pick Singletary is gone. I'm not necessarily in the RB first camp but if it does go down Devin probably isn't a Bill by the end of the draft.

[maryland-bills-fan]

10 hours ago, wagne591 said:

As much as I would like to get Travis Etienne, I think we will draft heavy on the Defense. Our weakest spot on the team IMO is the D-Line especially ends (and age has a lot to do with it). We have dinosaurs playing both ends (Hughs, and Addison) we need an influx of youth at that position, so I see maybe two or three DE's drafted. It would not surprise me if Etienne is sitting there at 30 and we draft him and later in the draft trade Moss or Singletary away. Just my opinion. If we can stay young and get better that is good too.

 

Didn't we draft a DE last year?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Didn't we draft a DE last year?

Yes and they need to draft another one

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

QBs don’t factor into BPA in the 1st round if a team is in the market for one 

 

Agree. QB is generally dealt with separately from BPA. If you haven't got one you try and get one, even if they are not BPA. If you have got one you can afford to overlook one sitting there when you draft. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

In the pass happy NFL no doubt that QB’s and receivers are critical to a teams success. However, to me it seems teams are reaching hard for both positions at the expense of the best player available philosophy. It may be that teams in their weighting believe that a given QB or WR is the BPA but history has suggested that both positions are risky picks at the top of the draft.

 

The good news for the Bills is that if the predictions play out there may be some surprise players available at 30. Probably not a premier DE that we would love to see but maybe CB, interior o-line or 2’nd tier (i.e not premier level) DE.

 

Your thoughts?

 

My personal opinion is that teams always consider need (and quality at that position available in the later rounds) in their draft choices.

 

I think it's inarguable that teams put QBs and sometimes other players (DE, WR, potential LTs) in a different category

 

For example, if it seems pretty clear that the BPA is a LT....but that team has a high-quality LT under a long term contract - that team is NOT gonna draft that guy in the first couple rounds.  Ditto QB. 

 

Later rounds, as a guy they could develop, the math changes.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Without even reading, I'm sure this has already been said here. But still ...

 

Pure BPA is used extremely rarely. It is mitigated, for just about every team and every year. By two or three factors.

 

First and most important it's mitigated by team needs. The Bills simply are not going to draft a quarterback in the first round this year, no matter if they think that one is there and he's sticking out as the best player. Not going to happen. It's BPA at a position of need.

 

Second is position value. Guards and RBs go early in the first only for players who appear to be once-a-decade guys. Generally if you need a guard but you're drafting at #12 and you think that a guard is the 12th-best player, the best player left, you're still going to go LT if you have a need there and an LT is close to BPA. 

 

There are more: scheme fit, culture fit, lack of self-destructive habits, etc. 

 

And QB is so far beyond any other position in position value that it makes sense to take a shot. You're still screwed if you pick badly. But teams without franchise QBs don't have a realistic chance of doing anything significant.

 

Pretty much every good team follows a BPA strategy, but it is absolutely mitigated.

 

On the guard and running back point my understanding from listening to former scouts is that the positional value is factored into the grade. So the example as I have heard it was specific to guard but the former scout who was giving the seminar basically said for him to give a guard a first round grade they have to have elite potential. Whereas some of the more premium positions he might give a first round grade to say, an edge rusher, who he thinks is a potential 10 year starter but without an elite ceiling. So by the time they actually look at the board to figure 'BPA' on draft night they can stick to their board. 

 

And on scheme fit you are 100% right. That is back to my point earlier in the week.... there are normally 15-25 true first round grades... they are guys that for the most part every team thinks could play in any scheme - they might still be better in scheme A than scheme B but they are guys you feel like you could pretty much plug in to any scheme. The reason that it is much more jumbled after that is you get into scheme specific fits and I will revert to my Asante Samuel example again.... if I was Tampa Bay's GM with Todd Bowles and that scheme on defense I might think Asante Samuel was in play for me at #32. If I am Brandon Beane with Sean McDermott, Leslie Frazier and this defense I wouldn't take Samuel even if he was on the board at #61. If he was there at #93 it might then get to the point where I say "his talent is such that this is such great value and I'll try and develop him into a guy that can play in my scheme." 

 

Culture, off field and injury are the three great unknowns to amateur graders like myself. And that is why teams really value those 15 minute interview slots they normally get at the Senior Bowl and the Combine as well as all the recon their area scouts have done during the season. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On the guard and running back point my understanding from listening to former scouts is that the positional value is factored into the grade. So the example as I have heard it was specific to guard but the former scout who was giving the seminar basically said for him to give a guard a first round grade they have to have elite potential. Whereas some of the more premium positions he might give a first round grade to say, an edge rusher, who he thinks is a potential 10 year starter but without an elite ceiling. So by the time they actually look at the board to figure 'BPA' on draft night they can stick to their board. 

 

And on scheme fit you are 100% right. That is back to my point earlier in the week.... there are normally 15-25 true first round grades... they are guys that for the most part every team thinks could play in any scheme - they might still be better in scheme A than scheme B but they are guys you feel like you could pretty much plug in to any scheme. The reason that it is much more jumbled after that is you get into scheme specific fits and I will revert to my Asante Samuel example again.... if I was Tampa Bay's GM with Todd Bowles and that scheme on defense I might think Asante Samuel was in play for me at #32. If I am Brandon Beane with Sean McDermott, Leslie Frazier and this defense I wouldn't take Samuel even if he was on the board at #61. If he was there at #93 it might then get to the point where I say "his talent is such that this is such great value and I'll try and develop him into a guy that can play in my scheme." 

 

Culture, off field and injury are the three great unknowns to amateur graders like myself. And that is why teams really value those 15 minute interview slots they normally get at the Senior Bowl and the Combine as well as all the recon their area scouts have done during the season. 

Bill do you feel WR Terrence Marshall of LSU is worthy of the #30 pick? I think he'd have a full year to get a little bigger and stronger but he's a guy who gives us some things our other receivers don't.

[Billsfansinceday1]

It is good to see that some things never change...the eternal debate rages on pandemic or no pandemic.  

 

I reside in the BPA according to need domain.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Bill do you feel WR Terrence Marshall of LSU is worthy of the #30 pick? I think he'd have a full year to get a little bigger and stronger but he's a guy who gives us some things our other receivers don't.

 

I have a mid / high 2nd round grade on him but remembering what I said elsewhere about only having 18 true firsts that is enough for Terrace to be #34 on my big board. So he is close enough. He is a bit boom and bust and I agree with you if we draft him we might need a little patience bit his ceiling is very high. Interestingly it is the same grade as I had on Tee Higgins last year and DK Metcalf the year before. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have a mid / high 2nd round grade on him but remembering what I said elsewhere about only having 18 true firsts that is enough for Terrace to be #34 on my big board. So he is close enough. He is a bit boom and bust and I agree with you if we draft him we might need a little patience bit his ceiling is very high. Interestingly it is the same grade as I had on Tee Higgins last year and DK Metcalf the year before. 

Right on and thanks for the response. I think people at first might not care if he was pick but by next season they would be like oh snap, glad we snagged that guy!👍

[BillsShredder83]

14 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Yeah if Etienne is the pick Singletary is gone. I'm not necessarily in the RB first camp but if it does go down Devin probably isn't a Bill by the end of the draft.

Oh cool! I dont think we ever got to draft a Mr Irrelevant before 😆

[mjt328]

Fans really seem to misunderstand the concept of "Best Player Available."

The idea is NOT that you completely ignore positional importance, or completely disregard the needs of the roster.

The idea is that you don't REACH for a need position, when there are significantly better players available.

 

Pound for pound, I would say Aaron Donald is probably the best football player in the NFL.  

But once you factor in positional importance, he may struggle to crack the Top 10.