What to do with Dawson Knox

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

The Bills can certainly contend for the SB in the next couple of years, next year in particular with a somewhat easier schedule could be their best shot.  I've seen it written more than once that TE is one of the hardest positions for a rookie to come in and excel at.

 

Having said that, I think the likelihood of drafting a guy in the 2nd round, (unless we make a trade late 2nd round)  and play better than Knox is playing right now is very low.  To find that guy would be more dumb luck than a well thought out plan as if he's that good, he's not lasting to close to pick #60.  In addition we have Sweeney, so would be concerned with having a TE group led by the guy many want to replace and two others that have no NFL game experience. 

 

Kroft is a FA, could see them trying to replace him with another experienced guy on the long end of career, like last season Olson.

 

In addition with this offense how many targets is the TE really going to get?  Allen is completing 69.1% of his passes, realistically how much better can that number get, the top QB in the entire league on completion percent is only 1.6% better.

 

Mahomes who has Kelce is 66.3%, almost 3% lower.  If you add up the top 3 receiving options on KC and Buffalo, the 3 from KC including Kelce have a total of about 200 more yards than the top 3 of the Bills, Diggs, Beasley, Davis.

 

Earlier in the season saw that the Bills run 4 WR 28% of the time (think it' still close to that number) so how much are you really going to utilize the TE?  There are a number of good TE's in the league admittedly currently playing better than Knox; Andrews, Gesicki, Hockenson, Henry, Engram to name a couple but not really sure better than when the Bills go with 4 WR's.  While those guys are good, there's only three really great TE's in the league, Gronk, Kittle, and Kelce, so unless you get very lucky and find that guy, I doubt you're overall improving the offense or changing the overall receptions, yards, etc, you're just changing who is making the catches.

 

Overall my take is would rather use their draft picks on CB, O-line likely only two of the trio of Morse, Feleciano, and Williams will be on the team next year and LB either way if they resign Milano or not, and even an edge rusher before I'd worry about TE.  I'd prefer giving Knox and Sweeney one more year, Knox to prove he's a capable starter and Sweeney to prove he can be the #2 guy, if not then next year 2022 draft or sign a FA to replace that guy.

[Bangarang]

You keep him with the obvious understanding that if he doesn’t get better at consistently catching the ball then we have to look at upgrading. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 but the statement was "the drops have not decreased", and they have.

 

 

Yep he's advanced from Dawson Drops to Knox-it-down.

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep he's advanced from Dawson Drops to Knox-it-down.

 

But he's playing better now.  It's undeniable.  We'll see what happens in the offseason, but right now I will start Knox over Kroft any day of the week and twice on Sundays...

 

[Thurman#1]

On 12/29/2020 at 11:57 PM, bobobonators said:

I totally agree to stick with him this season. If anything he has been improving. My original post was more in terms of looking at next season bc of the potential TE’s in the draft. I was wondering if we invest a first or even second rd pick on a TE. 

 

 

OK.

 

Personally, my bet on the odds of going TE in the 1st or 2nd round next year, when we seem very unlikely to be able to fill many holes in FA due to our bad cap situation ... roughly 5%. And I have the urge now that I've typed that to lower it.

 

Disclaimer: I'm not Beane, obviously. But that's my guess.

 

 

 

On 12/30/2020 at 12:04 AM, MJS said:

It's unrealistic to believe you can go get the best TE in the league. Kelce types don't grow on trees.

 

There are only a few elite TE's in the league. The rest are fairly mediocre.

 

 

While I agree with your overall sentiment here, there are definitely a bunch who fit in between elite and mediocre and are somewhere in the good to very good range.

 

Who would the elite guys be? Kelce and Kittle, certainly. Waller, maybe? Those three?

 

Guys like Gesicki, Hockenson, Fant, Hunter Henry, Hurst, Goedert, Engram, Hooper, the aging Gronk and probably a few more ... they aren't mediocre. But your point stands, I think. How would a GM feel having spent a 1st rounder and gotten a guy like most of these in my second group? IMO there are two or three who you might be pretty happy with, especially if your pick was in the 20s or 30s. Not more, though. How about the 2nd round? Would all of these guys look like good picks in the 2nd? Several more, probably, but I personally wouldn't trade a 2nd for many of them, even if they were coming in on rookie contracts that lasted four more years.

 

On a team that's going to have a few holes and three guys already on the roster that they would love to re-sign but might well not be able to get all three with the cap the way it is, I don't see them picking a TE early. Maybe another shot at a guy like Knox himself, in the mid-rounds? Yeah, I could definitely see that.

 

 

 

We'll see.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo Junction]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm all for affordable competition and Knox is unlikely to go anywhere on his rookie contract.

 

But factually, Knox's drops have almost cut in half (from 20% to 11%).  Visually to me his blocking has improved, and his physicality and moves as a route runner may be starting to improve.

 

It would be a fair point to say that 11% is still unacceptable for a good TE, but the statement was "the drops have not decreased", and they have.

But. But. But. Kelce’s drop percentage last year was 10.4% per PFF. Gulp. Say it ain’t so! 😭 
 

Facetiousness aside, TEs usually take a while to get up to full speed when they’re not freaks from a top program. Knox has issues with the easy catches in particular. That can be improved over time... as can his blocking. He may very well never turn into a top TE. Knox does represent a threat when he’s on the field though, and we shouldn’t neglect the reality that DCs view him as a guy that can exploit certain personnel and coverages. Even if he may drop the ball, Knox has to be accounted for which helps draw coverage away from the WRs and RBs. 

[Steve Evans]

Let him continue to mature. He is 24 years old and in his 2nd year, with this year being what it is. I think people think there are Kelce's (the best TE and possibly best receiver this year) in abundance in the draft!

[MJS]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

While I agree with your overall sentiment here, there are definitely a bunch who fit in between elite and mediocre and are somewhere in the good to very good range.

 

Who would the elite guys be? Kelce and Kittle, certainly. Waller, maybe? Those three?

 

Guys like Gesicki, Hockenson, Fant, Hunter Henry, Hurst, Goedert, Engram, Hooper, the aging Gronk and probably a few more ... they aren't mediocre. But your point stands, I think. How would a GM feel having spent a 1st rounder and gotten a guy like most of these in my second group? IMO there are two or three who you might be pretty happy with, especially if your pick was in the 20s or 30s. Not more, though. How about the 2nd round? Would all of these guys look like good picks in the 2nd? Several more, probably, but I personally wouldn't trade a 2nd for many of them, even if they were coming in on rookie contracts that lasted four more years.

 

On a team that's going to have a few holes and three guys already on the roster that they would love to re-sign but might well not be able to get all three with the cap the way it is, I don't see them picking a TE early. Maybe another shot at a guy like Knox himself, in the mid-rounds? Yeah, I could definitely see that.

 

We'll see.

Yes, those guys are good, but the dropoff in production in the guys other than Kelce, Kittle, and Waller is precipitous. Kelce and Waller have over 1000 yards receiving. After that? The rest of those guys are hovering around 600 yards receiving.

 

My opinion is you continue to target our good receivers. I don't know if bringing in a top TE is worth the investment when they will not be targeted as much as Diggs, Brown, and Beasley. If you want to draft a guy, that's fine. You might get lucky and find someone really good. But I would not go in free agency and pay the best TE available.

[scribo]

Knox is going to be a superstar. And I am confident he will still be wearing a charging buffalo when that comes to fruition. Even with his untimely drops, he's earned the coaching staff and Josh's trust. He wouldn't have the chance to drop passes otherwise. He was the skills, the intensity and the vision to get open. He's strong in YAC. I trust our coaching staff will get him where he can go, and it will all be worthwhile in the end. 

[bobobonators]

4 hours ago, scribo said:

Knox is going to be a superstar. And I am confident he will still be wearing a charging buffalo when that comes to fruition. Even with his untimely drops, he's earned the coaching staff and Josh's trust. He wouldn't have the chance to drop passes otherwise. He was the skills, the intensity and the vision to get open. He's strong in YAC. I trust our coaching staff will get him where he can go, and it will all be worthwhile in the end. 

Hopefully! I dont dislike him, just frustrated by his mind-numbing drops at times. Sometimes that cant be fixed. But he does have all the physical tools

Edited January 1, 2021 by bobobonators

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

Hopefully! I dont dislike him, just frustrated by his mind-numbing drops at times. Sometimes that cant be fixed. But he does have all the physical tools

 

Yeah, they're maddening, but he's cut them in half.  I didn't realize that and hopefully a sign of things to come.

[Greatdane21]

Not having a camp this year hurt him ! 
really needs to take a ball machine home and catch 200 balls a day in the off season 

has the size ,speed just needs to get the hands Fixed because now he’s ( Charles Clay ) 

 

this organization as a whole has not been successful picking Tight Ends over the years as they have always

wanted a blocker first  instead of a big wr  hence Sweeney who may or may not play again due to heart issues

having the established QB like Allen will help future TE candidates succeed 

they need to keep turning over rocks and eventually they will find a good one

[Warcodered]

On 12/31/2020 at 2:36 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm all for affordable competition and Knox is unlikely to go anywhere on his rookie contract.

 

But factually, Knox's drops have almost cut in half (from 20% to 11%).  Visually to me his blocking has improved, and his physicality and moves as a route runner may be starting to improve.

 

It would be a fair point to say that 11% is still unacceptable for a good TE, but the statement was "the drops have not decreased", and they have.

I mean barring one drop he would of had a great day Monday.

[Bferra13]

15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

OK.

 

Personally, my bet on the odds of going TE in the 1st or 2nd round next year, when we seem very unlikely to be able to fill many holes in FA due to our bad cap situation ... roughly 5%. And I have the urge now that I've typed that to lower it.

 

Disclaimer: I'm not Beane, obviously. But that's my guess.

 

 

 

 

 

While I agree with your overall sentiment here, there are definitely a bunch who fit in between elite and mediocre and are somewhere in the good to very good range.

 

 

 

 

 

Tight end is a tough position to draft high. Look at Hock there in Detroit... He's gonna be a fine player no doubt, but when you have guys like Kelce and Kittle being drafted in round 3 and beyond, no need imo. Approach the TE position like you approach RB's. Try and hit on a high ceiling guy later. 

 

Also, to your point, the cap situation is another reason not to pick TE high. Thats a luxury pick and not a dire need when we lose one of our LB's and whoever else on free agency.

[whorlnut]

Draft Pat Freiermuth and let them compete. Knox hasnt had a lot of competition since his rookie year. Make him earn it. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Greatdane21 said:

Not having a camp this year hurt him ! 
really needs to take a ball machine home and catch 200 balls a day in the off season 

has the size ,speed just needs to get the hands Fixed because now he’s ( Charles Clay ) 

 

this organization as a whole has not been successful picking Tight Ends over the years as they have always

wanted a blocker first  instead of a big wr  hence Sweeney who may or may not play again due to heart issues

having the established QB like Allen will help future TE candidates succeed 

they need to keep turning over rocks and eventually they will find a good one

 

I seem to recall that Knox said he set up a Juggs machine at his parents house near Nashville and caught 200-250 balls a day.

 

It's probably a case of "practice does not make perfect - the RIGHT practice makes perfect". 

 

His problem seems to be that when he's catching a "gimme" ball, he is too aware of what's happening around him and gets distracted; also sometimes, he misses balls that are high or off center but catchable. 

 

Just catching 50 or 100 or 200 balls from a Juggs machine won't necessarily help that.  The issue would be how to come up with a realistic distraction while those balls are being caught - something that his athletic instincts will prompt him to dodge so he can learn to override them.  The most obvious would be to work with a trainer who can simulate a DB or LB closing to tackle him.  A buddy with a paintball gun, a water pistol loaded with something he doesn't like the smell of, a recording of noises he dislikes (or alerts to) that gets played randomly from different locations around him.  That kind of thing.

 

On 12/31/2020 at 3:48 PM, Bangarang said:

You keep him with the obvious understanding that if he doesn’t get better at consistently catching the ball then we have to look at upgrading. 

 

I would call the probability that Knox has absolute clarity on that point to be 99.99%

[Charles Romes]

It said a lot to me when Josh keep giving him chances after yet another horrendous drop on Monday. If Josh believes in him, I believe in him 

[Matt_In_NH]

It might not work out but its not time to throw dirt on the guy yet.

[Doc]

18 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

It said a lot to me when Josh keep giving him chances after yet another horrendous drop on Monday. If Josh believes in him, I believe in him 

 

This is the most telling thing of all.  If Josh had been as upset at Knox dropping that TD as some of us fans were, he wouldn't have looked his way again in the game.

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

I mean barring one drop he would of had a great day Monday.

Imagine how this thread would’ve gone if he caught that ball- 4 catches, roughly 60 yards and a td. Plus Josh would’ve had 5 touchdown passes...so while that drop was terrible, it’s amazing how much focus is given to the drop and not the great catch along the sideline, his catch up the seam, or his 4th down catch. 
 

I’ll take what he brings to the table every game

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Ya Digg? said:

Imagine how this thread would’ve gone if he caught that ball- 4 catches, roughly 60 yards and a td. Plus Josh would’ve had 5 touchdown passes...so while that drop was terrible, it’s amazing how much focus is given to the drop and not the great catch along the sideline, his catch up the seam, or his 4th down catch. 
 

I’ll take what he brings to the table every game

 

We talked about the great, and more difficult, catches after the drop.  But him catching those is what makes the easy TD catch drop so maddening.

[Ya Digg?]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

We talked about the great, and more difficult, catches after the drop.  But him catching those is what makes the easy TD catch drop so maddening.

Oh I yelled at the tv just like everyone else did and I know there has been talk about his other plays, I was just making commentary about how there’s just way too much focus on his mistakes. Especially for what he is getting paid and the fact that it’s only his second year, the guy is playing pretty well...definitely gives a dimension to the offense that quite frankly none of the other tight ends give 

[BarleyNY]

47 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Oh I yelled at the tv just like everyone else did and I know there has been talk about his other plays, I was just making commentary about how there’s just way too much focus on his mistakes. Especially for what he is getting paid and the fact that it’s only his second year, the guy is playing pretty well...definitely gives a dimension to the offense that quite frankly none of the other tight ends give 

There’s no reason to move on from Knox at this time, but the Bills have got to find a more consistent and dependable TE.  Let him continue to develop and see what happens, but we can’t have him as the only guy capable of being TE1.  

[ColoradoBills]

On 12/31/2020 at 11:56 AM, Doc said:

Forget a FA TE.  Anyone who is decent will cost too much and the Bills don't have the cap room.  Take a flyer in the mid rounds on a guy with good measureables.  

 

I'm almost sure that after letting Kroft go they will sign a lower dollar UFA TE to come to camp to compete.

There are a lot of those type guys in FA this year that can be got for $2 million or less.

They'll try to see if a guy like that can excel in Buffalo.

 

They will then TRY to draft a TE they like in the middle to later rounds if one comes to them.

This is how I'm guessing they handle this but I'm pretty sure they don't spend a lot of a FA TE or a high draft pick like you said.

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'm almost sure that after letting Kroft go they will sign a lower dollar UFA TE to come to camp to compete.

There are a lot of those type guys in FA this year that can be got for $2 million or less.

They'll try to see if a guy like that can excel in Buffalo.

 

They will then TRY to draft a TE they like in the middle to later rounds if one comes to them.

This is how I'm guessing they handle this but I'm pretty sure they don't spend a lot of a FA TE or a high draft pick like you said.

Anyone in free agency who looks to have promise?

[BearNorth]

Metzelaars had a 72% catch percentage for the years they recorded.  Knox is at 58%.  Metzelaars was Knox + Lee Smith in one package, HUGE target.

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Doc said:

Anyone in free agency who looks to have promise?

 

I'm just throwing out the type of guys they could be interested in like an O'Shaughnessey (JAX) or a Trey Burton (IND).

Buffalo will be a destination spot next year and with the TE talent lacking there could be a lot of interest for UFAs.

 

Like I said not top end UFAs just decent players.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/tight-end/

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

On 12/29/2020 at 9:40 AM, billsfan1959 said:

In the immortal words of Homer Simpson: "Doh!"

 

 

ouch.... no pro should drop these on a regular basis.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

36 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Metzelaars had a 72% catch percentage for the years they recorded.  Knox is at 58%.  Metzelaars was Knox + Lee Smith in one package, HUGE target.

58%? That seems extremely bad. What’s a normal percentage for most TE’s in today’s NFL? 

[Special K]

On 12/31/2020 at 4:25 PM, Special K said:

I like Knox, and hope he continues to develop.

 

I think drafting another TE to pair with Knox is the way to go.

 

Tommy Tremble from Notre Dame is my guy.

 

Keep an eye on him in the college playoff game tomorrow(he’s #24). He’s a great run blocker, can play H-back, and has the speed to be a threat in the passing game. 

 

I think he he can do the things Gilliam, Lee Smith, and Kroft  can do all in one player.

 

He also seems like a “process” guy.

 

Get it done, McBeane!!

 

 

 

 

 

Tremble got hurt in the game, but nothing serious, if he can be had in the second or third round, the Bills should pick him up and pair him with Knox.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Special K

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

There’s no reason to move on from Knox at this time, but the Bills have got to find a more consistent and dependable TE.  Let him continue to develop and see what happens, but we can’t have him as the only guy capable of being TE1.  

SWEENEY !

[Doc]

26 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

ouch.... no pro should drop these on a regular basis.

 

Looking at that in slo-mo, Knox isn't even looking at the ball when it hits his hands.

[BearNorth]

Tight End from Ohio State tonight is tearing Clemson a new one.

Anyone notice Justin Fields just threw a TD 60 yards in the air.  Suspect the Jets will be happy with him.

[Rick 'r Mortis]

42 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Tight End from Ohio State tonight is tearing Clemson a new one.

Anyone notice Justin Fields just threw a TD 60 yards in the air.  Suspect the Jets will be happy with him.

I'd be ecstatic if the Jets took him 😂

[Rochesterfan]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I seem to recall that Knox said he set up a Juggs machine at his parents house near Nashville and caught 200-250 balls a day.

 

It's probably a case of "practice does not make perfect - the RIGHT practice makes perfect". 

 

His problem seems to be that when he's catching a "gimme" ball, he is too aware of what's happening around him and gets distracted; also sometimes, he misses balls that are high or off center but catchable. 

 

Just catching 50 or 100 or 200 balls from a Juggs machine won't necessarily help that.  The issue would be how to come up with a realistic distraction while those balls are being caught - something that his athletic instincts will prompt him to dodge so he can learn to override them.  The most obvious would be to work with a trainer who can simulate a DB or LB closing to tackle him.  A buddy with a paintball gun, a water pistol loaded with something he doesn't like the smell of, a recording of noises he dislikes (or alerts to) that gets played randomly from different locations around him.  That kind of thing.

 

 

I would call the probability that Knox has absolute clarity on that point to be 99.99%

 

I think his biggest issue is how fairly early in his career he got that angry run for his play in Cincinnati and he wants to replicate that.  He knows physically he can dominate the smaller guys and therefore he takes his eyes off the ball before the catch looking to move upfield.  
 

You are 100% correct in that having a Jugs machine (as he did all summer) helps minimally as his hands themselves are not bad as can be seen by the tough catches.  Right now he lacks concentration to secure the catch and is more focused on what to do after the catch.

 

This is also the reason I don’t move on yet.  He is young with little experience catching balls in a game.  He is essentially learning a new position as TE in college versus the NFL is very different - especially in his current role where he can be split out wide, stacked at the end of the line, an inline blocker, an H-back, a full back, and a pitch guy out of the up back spot.
 

He is blocking a variety of players from DL/DE on pulls, to LBs and DBs on blitzes and he sometimes struggles with some assignments because of that, but he has gotten better and learned and there is no reason to assume he can not figure out the concentration issue and become a better receiver. 

[CapeBreton]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

Anyone in free agency who looks to have promise?

I think Gerald Everett would be solid here, no idea how much he’d cost though.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

58%? That seems extremely bad. What’s a normal percentage for most TE’s in today’s NFL? 

 

OK, so some context first.  Knox was 56% last year, and is 61% this year.  Last year included some uncatchable balls thrown by a QB with 58.8% completion %, this year fewer uncatchable balls thrown by a QB with 69.1% completion %.

 

Even if we give him a mulligan on last season, though, it's low. 

 

The average of all TE with more than 10 targets this season (I just pulled data from PFR and calculated) is 68%.  The top TE have a catch % 70-75%.

 

That said, we have to give a bit more context by looking at the catches Knox is asked to make.  A typical TE has a high catch % because he's asked to catch a lot of "bunny" short passes as an outlet across the middle or as a checkdown guy near the sideline.  Allen makes relatively few of those throws.  Knox is asked to catch a lot of high DOD passes, more like a WR. 

 

I'm less concerned with Knox completion %, than I am with his scored drops.  Drops aren't scored as balls a top receiver could catch.  They're scored as balls that hit the receiver in the hands, or that show up in a relatively conservative "catch window".  Knox has 4, out of 36 targets.  Catch those, and his catch % goes up to 72%.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Five years ago Davante Adams was rated as the single worst WR in the NFL.  

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Five years ago Davante Adams was rated as the single worst WR in the NFL.  

 

In 2015?  That was his 2nd season, like Knox's.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, Doc said:

We talked about the great, and more difficult, catches after the drop.  But him catching those is what makes the easy TD catch drop so maddening.

 

TBH, the focus on the drops misses the real problem with Dawson Knox as a receiving TE: he's struggling to release off the line and to get separation.  Ankles broken: 0.

 

What was impressive about the seam catch he made wasn't so much the catch itself per se, but the hard physical move he made (arm over) to change direction, run his route properly, and get open.