99.9% chance wk. 17 will matter to Bills

[The Red King]

So, I took a look at the standings to see where we could be week 17 and everything from the 1 to 4 seed are in play.  I wondered, is there any way we could be locked in by week 17 and rest our starters?  There's only one, and it's a longshot to say the least.

 

Buffalo will be locked in as the second seed by week 17 *if*...

 

*Buffalo beats New England

*Pitt loses tonight and next week.

*The Titans lose next week

 

If all that happens, Buffalo goes into week 17 a game ahead of Pitt and at least a game ahead of Indy and holds tie-breakers with both.  The Titans have the tie-breaker, but would be two games back.  Even if Cleveland wins to move into a tie for the division, they would also be a game behind the Bills and the Bills also hold the tie-breaker over them.  They would be assured no worse then #2, but Pitt's two losses would lock Buffalo out of #1.

 

So there ya go, only one path to Buffalo's week 17 matchup being meaningless to them, and that relies on four games playing out a certain way.  I don't see us getting to rest our starters.

Edited December 21, 2020 by The Red King
Added info on the Browns

[Steptide]

There's maybe a 1% chance the steelers lose tonight imo

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

Pitt has a real chance of losing the next two after tonight. . I think as as long as we have a chance to play for 2 seed we do. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by loveorhatembillsfan4life

[The Red King]

2 minutes ago, Steptide said:

There's maybe a 1% chance the steelers lose tonight imo

 

Yup, but honestly that's the only longshot of the four.  The Steelers play the Colts next week and the Titans play the Packers.  If Cinci somehow pulls off the upset the rest of the scenario becomes far more likely.

[CaptnCoke11]

Just now, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Pitt has a real chance of losing the next two. I think as as long as we have a chance to play for 2 seed we do. 

Bengals aren’t beating Pittsburgh lol.  Colts or Browns sure but not Cincinnati 

[PrimeTime101]

5 minutes ago, The Red King said:

So, I took a look at the standings to see where we could be week 17 and everything from the 1 to 4 seed are in play.  I wondered, is there any way we could be locked in by week 17 and rest our starters?  There's only one, and it's a longshot to say the least.

 

Buffalo will be locked in as the second seed by week 17 *if*...

 

*Buffalo beats New England

*Pitt loses tonight and next week.

*The Titans lose next week

 

If all that happens, Buffalo goes into week 17 a game ahead of Pitt and at least a game ahead of Indy and holds tie-breakers with both.  The Titans have the tie-breaker, but would be two games back.  They would be assured no worse then #2, but Pitt's two losses would lock Buffalo out of #1.

 

So there ya go, only one path to Buffalo's week 17 matchup being meaningless to them, and that relies on four games playing out a certain way.  I don't see us getting to rest our starters.

That's a lot of if's ands and buts.  sorry I don't see us ever locking the second seed. and #1 seed? we have 0 chance at #1 seed. KC is up by 2 games winning a tie breaker...  #2 seed is possible but unlikely. and the titans? they are one game behind but win a tie breaker..  that may be the only reason we push the starters out the last game

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Pitt has a real chance of losing the next two. I think as as long as we have a chance to play for 2 seed we do. 

Pittsburgh is not losing to Ryan Finley. 

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

2 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Bengals aren’t beating Pittsburgh lol.  Colts or Browns sure but not Cincinnati 

Sorry I meant the two after this game, not tonight. I edited my post. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by loveorhatembillsfan4life

[ALLEN1QB]

The way I look at it getting everyone healthy and rested is of greater importance than seeding.

[The Red King]

Just now, PrimeTime101 said:

That's a lot of if's ands and buts.  sorry I don't see us ever locking the second seed. and #1 seed? we have 0 chance at #1 seed. KC is up by 2 games winning a tie breaker...  #2 seed is possible but unlikely. and the titans? they are one game behind but win a tie breaker..  that may be the only reason we push the starters out the last game

 

We're just a game behind Pitt and own the tie-breaker.  We just need to gain one game on them.  Pitt ends with Indy and Cleveland.  #2 is well within reach.  Titans face the Pack and could find themselves two back of us by week 17.

[Punching Bag]

4 minutes ago, The Red King said:

 

Yup, but honestly that's the only longshot of the four.  The Steelers play the Colts next week and the Titans play the Packers.  If Cinci somehow pulls off the upset the rest of the scenario becomes far more likely.

 

So what is the charity of the Bengals starting QB?

[Greg S]

The Steelers could hang out at the bar all day and show up tonight completely **** faced and they are still beating the Bengals. Next week's game against the Colts will be a challenge but not tonight.

[Rochesterfan]

7 minutes ago, The Red King said:

So, I took a look at the standings to see where we could be week 17 and everything from the 1 to 4 seed are in play.  I wondered, is there any way we could be locked in by week 17 and rest our starters?  There's only one, and it's a longshot to say the least.

 

Buffalo will be locked in as the second seed by week 17 *if*...

 

*Buffalo beats New England

*Pitt loses tonight and next week.

*The Titans lose next week

 

If all that happens, Buffalo goes into week 17 a game ahead of Pitt and at least a game ahead of Indy and holds tie-breakers with both.  The Titans have the tie-breaker, but would be two games back.  Even if Cleveland wins to move into a tie for the division, they would also be a game behind the Bills and the Bills also hold the tie-breaker over them.  They would be assured no worse then #2, but Pitt's two losses would lock Buffalo out of #1.

 

So there ya go, only one path to Buffalo's week 17 matchup being meaningless to them, and that relies on four games playing out a certain way.  I don't see us getting to rest our starters.

 

You are making the assumption #2 versus #3 or #4 matters significantly.  In previous years with a bye week - I think it would matter, but to be honest at least on paper right now the #3 seed would most likely be better than the #2 seed.

 

It really depends upon what the Bills want in terms play versus rest.  My guess is you see something similar to the last Jets game last year - starters prepare and gameplan and then play 2-3 series (1st quarter) just to stay in practice, but gives them less physical games and built in rest.  The game has little meaning and the rest is more important.  It may also help to get the Dolphins in and Baltimore out of the playoffs.

[Beast]

Keep winning and get as many home games as possible.

 

There's a reason why this team wanted to win the division and that was to have a home playoff game after losing their last two playoff games on the road.

 

Keep winning. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp with some people. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Beast

[The Red King]

To several replies, yeah I agree the odds are quite low Cincy wins.  Why I used the title I did.  Barring a miracle, week 17's game will matter to us.

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, The Red King said:

To several replies, yeah I agree the odds are quite low Cincy wins.  Why I used the title I did.  Barring a miracle, week 17's game will matter to us.

OF course cincy helped us one time lol

2 minutes ago, Beast said:

Keep winning and get as many home games as possible.

 

There's a reason why this team wanted to win the division and that was to have a home playoff game afterblosing their last teo playoff games on the road.

 

Keep winning. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp with some people.

stop being a flamer lol... 

 

People understand we should keep winning. its conversation

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, Beast said:

Keep winning and get as many home games as possible.

 

There's a reason why this team wanted to win the division and that was to have a home playoff game afterblosing their last teo playoff games on the road.

 

Keep winning. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp with some people.

 

 

Definitely want to keep winning. Having momentum in Dec/Jan is huge. At the same time if some players are hurting especially key players then it might be wise to rest some guys. McDermott gets paid the big bucks to make those decisions not me. My meaningless opinion doesn't count anyway.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

Keep winning and get as many home games as possible.

 

There's a reason why this team wanted to win the division and that was to have a home playoff game after losing their last two playoff games on the road.

 

Keep winning. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp with some people. 

It's baffling. It's like people are satisfied with winning the division and they aren't wired to comprehend the next goal.

[Greg S]

If the Bills-Dolphins game gets flexed to SNF is this the week we find out?

[CSBill]

There's plenty of motivation to keep winning:

1. It's a culture thing - Winning breads winning;
2. The Patriots - consider this, if they were in the Bills position, would they let up? And, it's the Patriots. Beating them is motivation enough;
3. You need to make/send a statement to Fish, "yeah, your record is good, but you're still not as good as us!" (refer to point 2, think WWBBD: "What Would Bill B. Do?" ); and,
4. Both games will have implications for play-off positioning--the Fish game may not by then--but until then, you keep playing to win.

[TH3]

22 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said:

The way I look at it getting everyone healthy and rested is of greater importance than seeding.

They way I see it...NOT being 4 seed means no chance of being at Chiefs Divisional weekend...being 2 Seed means 2 home games

Edited December 21, 2020 by TH3

[Seasons1992]

29 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

So what is the charity of the Bengals starting QB?

 

After what Pitt will do to him tonight, the QB will NEED the charity himself.

[SoTier]

Personally, I don't want the Bills to "rest their starters" in Week 17 whether they "have something to play for" or not.   I simply don't like the attitude: you always play to win whether the game "matters" or not.    More importantly, it's very possible that the Bills could meet their Week 17 opponent, Miami, in the playoffs. 

 

I think that McDermott should rest any starters who have injuries that would benefit from a week off, especially nagging ones, but if the starters are healthy in Week 17,  they should play as long as the game is competitive.   

[richardb1952]

I believe the 2 seed will be playing the Ravens.  They have an easy schedule compared to Miami.  The 3 seed might have an easier game in Cleveland or Indy.  Even if Steelers keep the 2 seed, I could see them being eliminated in the first round which would give Bills second home game if they win their first round game.  If I were to make a guess, I'd say Bills will be the 2 seed facing Ravens who scare me somewhat, and Titans also.  Let's just keep winning and see where the chips fall.  

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, richardb1952 said:

I believe the 2 seed will be playing the Ravens.  They have an easy schedule compared to Miami.  The 3 seed might have an easier game in Cleveland or Indy.  Even if Steelers keep the 2 seed, I could see them being eliminated in the first round which would give Bills second home game if they win their first round game.  If I were to make a guess, I'd say Bills will be the 2 seed facing Ravens who scare me somewhat, and Titans also.  Let's just keep winning and see where the chips fall.  

 

Miami wins out then the Ravens won't make it. They should beat the Raiders next week and who knows how Buffalo will treat the finale. Will they treat it like a preseason game or not.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Thanks @The Red King for breaking that down. If Cincy had Burrow I would feel a ton better about Pitt losing tonight. Cincy hates Pitt so I know the Cincy D is going to show up. I just don’t see how Cincy puts up points. 

[HeHateMe]

It's tough to say about week 17... does seeding matter that much in a year without fans?.   The second home game might be nice but if Allen or Diggs or Milano, Edmunds, White get hurt against Miami would you say that was worth it?  I'd rather have everyone healthy ready to go in the playoffs than lose anyone due to injury in a somewhat meaningless week 17.. We'll see.

[Rochesterfan]

14 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Personally, I don't want the Bills to "rest their starters" in Week 17 whether they "have something to play for" or not.   I simply don't like the attitude: you always play to win whether the game "matters" or not.    More importantly, it's very possible that the Bills could meet their Week 17 opponent, Miami, in the playoffs. 

 

I think that McDermott should rest any starters who have injuries that would benefit from a week off, especially nagging ones, but if the starters are healthy in Week 17,  they should play as long as the game is competitive.   

 

I think it is really an all or nothing.  If you are resting guys like Brown, Williams, Morse, maybe Diggs or Beasley (due to nagging injuries) - then I don’t want JA in there with a partial o-line and limited weapons trying to win a game against a team that needs the win.

 

McD has to decide and if he is playing the starters even for a few series - then I want all of them that are able in there playing.  If they decide a few members of the o-line or a few WRs cold use a full week off - then give the rest to all the starters you can.

 

I don’t want a missed block by a back-up Tackle or a WR that can’t get open causing Josh to hold on to the ball to create a situation where JA misses a playoff start because we wanted to win.  It is a difficult balance for coaches and will be approached differently throughout the league.  I just don’t think you play it safe for a few and let others go all out.  
 

The same thing occurs if you decide to sit and protect Josh - then I don’t want Diggs or Brown out there because a bad pass by Barkley could cost the team.  Make a decision either all in or rest the guys and let the consequences fall where they may.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Rochesterfan

[JerseyBills]

50 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Bengals aren’t beating Pittsburgh lol.  Colts or Browns sure but not Cincinnati 

Stranger things have happened. 

They lost 2 straight , how are they going to react? This Pitt team I saw 2 weeks in Buffalo looked timid. Maybe them defensive injuries 🤷‍♂️

They come out sloppy, anything is possible.  We'd be the 2 seed by the end of the night! Longshot,  but certainly possible 

[SoCal Deek]

Each game produces a different scenario. Let’s see what happens tonight. If by some miracle the Bengals win, then you keep your foot on the gas for sure. Hey....the Jets beat the Rams yesterday! Ya never know.

[Weatherman]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Bengals aren’t beating Pittsburgh lol.  Colts or Browns sure but not Cincinnati 

Jets weren’t going to beat the Rams either.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

JWB. 

 

PLAY TO WIN

 

the rest will sort itself out 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

The Steelers could hang out at the bar all day and show up tonight completely **** faced and they are still beating the Bengals. Next week's game against the Colts will be a challenge but not tonight.

That’s what the rams enough about the jet’s.  

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Pitt has a real chance of losing the next two after tonight. . I think as as long as we have a chance to play for 2 seed we do. 

They do but we won't know the result of the Browns game because we will be playing at the same time so I guess that means we will be playing starters.

[Bferra13]

55 minutes ago, Greg S said:

If the Bills-Dolphins game gets flexed to SNF is this the week we find out?

There is no SNF week 17.

 

The NFL announced late Sunday that no game will be flexed to Sunday Night Football in Week 17, a sharp departure from previous years, when NBC would always get a game with playoff implications to close out the season.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Bferra13

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Keep winning and get as many home games as possible.

 

There's a reason why this team wanted to win the division and that was to have a home playoff game after losing their last two playoff games on the road.

 

Keep winning. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp with some people. 

I agree with you. Play the starters and play to win. I'd like to see them blow away Miami.

The counter argument is to avoid injury which has some validity. McD rested everyone against the Jets when the outcome didn't matter so there is precedent there. I think guys lose their edge when they rest but maybe that isn't a real thing.

[HeHateMe]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I agree with you. Play the starters and play to win. I'd like to see them blow away Miami.

The counter argument is to avoid injury which has some validity. McD rested everyone against the Jets when the outcome didn't matter so there is precedent there. I think guys lose their edge when they rest but maybe that isn't a real thing.

Patriots rested guys week 17 numerous times, those would be the only games we would ever win vs them..  They won Superbowls.

 

We rested week 17 vs the Jets and had a 16-0 lead before choking vs Houston last year.

[Punching Bag]

35 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

It's tough to say about week 17... does seeding matter that much in a year without fans?.   The second home game might be nice but if Allen or Diggs or Milano, Edmunds, White get hurt against Miami would you say that was worth it?  I'd rather have everyone healthy ready to go in the playoffs than lose anyone due to injury in a somewhat meaningless week 17.. We'll see.

 

Seeding matters.  Teams with home games do not need to deal with flights, hotels and visiting locker rooms.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 minute ago, HeHateMe said:

Patriots rested guys week 17 numerous times, those would be the only games we would ever win vs them..  They won Superbowls.

 

We rested week 17 vs the Jets and had a 16-0 lead before choking vs Houston last year.

Honestly don't remember the Patriots ever sitting Brady. In fact I recall Wes Welker getting injured in a meaningless week 17 game. 

I'm sure there is no correct way to do it. Avoid injury at the expense of losing your edge. Who knows. Either way if they win the first playoff game whatever they decide to do in week 17 will be correct.

I'd say do what you can to get #3 spot. Pittsburgh is losing in the first round which will give the Bills a shot at a second home playoff game and avoiding KC before the championship game

[Process]

I could care less about the two seed. It would be nice sure, but in a year where home field advantage means very little there's no way I'm not resting starters to play for 2 vs 3 seed. 

 

 

 

What needs to happen in Week 16 for us to be locked in to at least the 3 seed? That would be enough for me. Obviously if we win and titans/ colts both lose that would do it. What if bills and colts win, and titans lose?