Big Turk Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB... If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions... Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract... Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Romes Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 You mean when Josh retires in 2040? 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 (edited) The list of quality QBs making less than $20mil isn’t very long and they are all on rookie contracts. I don’t get this logic at all. Edited November 9, 2020 by Bangarang 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Success Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I have a lot of faith in Beane. He is adept at managing the cap and building this team through the draft and FA. I think that as long as we have Josh Allen, we can contend for championships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I know itll never happen with a young QB getting his first "pay me"/life changing money, but it would be great to see Josh do an ole' Tom Brady and take less so the team can be built around him. Not hating on guys getting paid at all, short window to make all you can while you can. Just commenting it would be nice lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Peyton Manning won the Superbowl with the Colts and with the Broncos with big contracts. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 This is concerning....the time to act is NOW! Why do the Power rankings have KC at #1 now with the big Mahomes contract? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 minute ago, MJS said: Peyton Manning won the Superbowl with the Colts and with the Broncos with big contracts. Right. In 2016, Manning’s salary was 13% of the Broncos salary. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey152 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, matter2003 said: No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB... If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions... Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract... Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money. I think that the "$20 million" is arbitrary...as it's really very recent that ANY quarterbacks have made that much money. What you really need to look at is a QB's salary as a percentage of the cap...I'm sure there are plenty of examples where top-flite QBs not on their rookie deals (or before the rookie cap) won the SB. I'd also wager those teams are far more competitive year in and year out. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franco_92 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 The Bills have a window as long as Josh Allen is healthy and here. With all of our problems, and with all of the development he still needs to do before he's at his peak, we are 7-2 with the schedule that made everyone poop their pants, and exactly 1 scary team left on it the rest of the way (though several good teams). He will consistently get us to where we need to be to have a chance, even when the team is struggling elsewhere 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, matter2003 said: No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB... If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions... Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract... Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money. You also have to take into account the rising of the salary cap over the last few years. It's a different world economically these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Like A Mofo Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 (edited) The NFL is a year to year moving target. The reason why having Josh develop into a franchise QB is so important that it gives Buffalo a CHANCE to win the Super Bowl over the next 10-15 years. Does not mean it will be an every year thing, there might be some 7-9 seasons sprinkled in. But with the right coaching, GM and also a little luck (injuries) I feel the Bills are now setup to take at least 2 maybe 3 legit deep shots at the SB with a QB like Josh. Edited November 9, 2020 by Like A Mofo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, matter2003 said: No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB... If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions... Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract... Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money. I've said for a year that I think Josh will give the Bills a discount. Josh is smart and a team guy, and he recognizes the impact of the mega-deals on the ability of the GM to put together a winner. I I think Josh will leave money on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideNine Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I think Allen is about team, not that I think he would take or deserve some kind of bargain-basement agreement, BUT I could see him taking a very long-term agreement that spreads the hit out over the years in a more cap-friendly way that allows Beane to continue to surround him with talented players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 That's rather misleading as likely could also say something like ""No QB before 2015ish ever made $20 million. So a rather small window to look at. Am a bit surprised Brady wasn't making $20 mil, but that's part of the reason he's no longer in NE too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Right. In 2016, Manning’s salary was 13% of the Broncos salary. You're totally right Bangarang. The only way to look into these numbers would be using % of cap not $s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, matter2003 said: No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB... If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions... Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract... Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money. 😂 now that we finally have a good QB we’re in trouble because you can only win with a QB that is paid like he sucks or is on a rookie deal? 9 minutes ago, MJS said: Peyton Manning won the Superbowl with the Colts and with the Broncos with big contracts. As did his brother 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jobot Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 This salary argument is flawed for two reasons.. 1- Brady 2- The salary cap continues to increase year over year... so it's foolish to look at it like this. If you're truly worried, you do what KC did with the Mahommes contract. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I am so confused... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, matter2003 said: No team with a QB making more than $20 million has ever won a SB... If you look back that is true...QBs taking up huge chunks of the cap hurt the teams ability to get talent at other positions... Ultimately they will make lots of championship games and might make it to the SB and lose but it seems the window of opportunity is to find a great QB and win on their rookie contract... Eventually this will not be true because there are simply too many very good young QBs in the league that will be getting paid but I found this pretty interesting and how teams with long time great QBs don't win championships after paying them big money. Given the cap goes up every year, using a $ amount wouldn't be the best way to evaulate this. It would be better to use a % of cap space taken up. For example, $10 million was a lot of cap space 10-15 years ago... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, PaattMaann said: I know itll never happen with a young QB getting his first "pay me"/life changing money, but it would be great to see Josh do an ole' Tom Brady and take less so the team can be built around him. Not hating on guys getting paid at all, short window to make all you can while you can. Just commenting it would be nice lol Unlike Tainted T*m Josh will not have the back door money from the owners, endorsements due to media market or a wife worth more ($400M) than him like T*m. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fan_in_tx Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Right. In 2016, Manning’s salary was 13% of the Broncos salary. How far back does this analysis go? John Elway the same... Tom Brady numerous times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, HOUSE said: I am so confused... Basically, what this thread is saying is that Tua will ever be as good as Josh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I've said for a year that I think Josh will give the Bills a discount. Josh is smart and a team guy, and he recognizes the impact of the mega-deals on the ability of the GM to put together a winner. I I think Josh will leave money on the table. We've sparred on this before, but I just don't see this happening. The going rate for young, elite QBs is ~$40M annually, and we have plenty of cap space for an extension. It's a raw deal to ask your star players for hometown discounts this early in their career, and you'd hear the rumor mill wind up quickly if OBD was trying to shortchange foundational talents. Maybe they can sneak him in for $38-$39M, but that's not really a discount. Brees and Brady deals at $25M annually are discounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Limeaid said: Unlike Tainted T*m Josh will not have the back door money from the owners, endorsements due to media market or a wife worth more ($400M) than him like T*m. Not happening. yea I was pretty clear it wasnt going to happen, just that it would be cool is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, TPS said: Given the cap goes up every year, using a $ amount wouldn't be the best way to evaulate this. It would be better to use a % of cap space taken up. For example, $10 million was a lot of cap space 10-15 years ago... The cap is expected to shrink next year. Teams that have huge contracts for 1 to 2 players are going to have a lot of turn over this coming offseason. The Chiefs will definitely be one of them, lots of mega deals handed out without concern of the cap ever shrinking. You should/almost have to see teams like the Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams, etc dumping a lot of talent to fit under the cap and in a lot of cases it’s really going to sting because they have so many big contracts that’s are immovable. They will have to gut the roster of role players all over the place because cutting the big names will save little if anything for them. to the OP, the window gets tighter as soon as the rookie deal is off. That said, the one thing Beane did that’s pretty genius, is sign a ton of contracts that end the same year as Allen’s rookie deal. Basically, he freed up a ton of cap space for Josh is that was the right way to go, or to dump everything and start over if Josh washed out. I think it’s pretty safe to say, barring injury, Josh is going to get PAID. He looks the part of a franchise guy, and has drastically brought down the level/number of mistakes/issues that made everyone question of that was the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 $20M+ contracts are relatively new to the league, so of course there won't be much of a history. % of cap is a better way to look at it, and I am far too lazy to figure out the equivalent 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTbills Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, Success said: I have a lot of faith in Beane. He is adept at managing the cap and building this team through the draft and FA. I think that as long as we have Josh Allen, we can contend for championships. I feel like (I have no proof of this, just my gut feeling) that Josh Allen is more worried about the team winning than his paycheck. I have the feeling that he'll go the Tom Brady route - still get paid a bunch, but maybe take a little less if it leads to them being able to keep a team around him. Again, I have zero proof of this, but if there ever was a team-first guy, it's Josh Allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Right. In 2016, Manning’s salary was 13% of the Broncos salary. Exactly this. Making the line $20 million dollars is arbitrary. If you don't normalize the data to show correlation to the Cap, then $20 million is essentially meaningless and ultimately coincidental. With more players making $20 million dollars a year, that imaginary line could disappear as early as this season. Probably should focus more on the idea that the Super Bowl is extremely hard to win. Only 33 quarterbacks have won a Superbowl in 54 years. Think about that, without digging too far into it because I am not bothering to see how many Quarterbacks have started a game since 1966, I am also not going to see how many teams played per year. But, on just a simple math the likelihood a given team will win a Super Bowl is 3%. Like it or not, the window is always going to be small, whether you pay a Quarterback or not. Edited November 9, 2020 by thenorthremembers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, CLTbills said: I feel like (I have no proof of this, just my gut feeling) that Josh Allen is more worried about the team winning than his paycheck. I have the feeling that he'll go the Tom Brady route - still get paid a bunch, but maybe take a little less if it leads to them being able to keep a team around him. Again, I have zero proof of this, but if there ever was a team-first guy, it's Josh Allen. My opinion of how the Josh Allen contract goes is like this. The Bills will open with a "fair" contract and Josh and his agent will tweek it a bit and then he signs. It will be good for both Josh and the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 The history of QBs making $20 million per year is pretty short. In 2013 Eli Manning eclipsed the 20 million mark, the same for 2014. In 2015 Eli Manning was gone from the list replaced by Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers, still a pretty small percentage of NFL QBs. The number jumped to 7 QBs in 2016, the same in 2017. The number took a big jump in 2018 - to 14 QBs, creeping up to 15 in 2019. That number is only going to go up in the future, and it is inevitable that a $20 million QB is going to win the Super Bowl. I would not be surprised if it were this year with Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady all in the $20 million club. What you don't want to happen is what happened to the Indianapolis Colts who have two $20 million club members under contract. Yes, Jacoby Brissett is in that club, along with Phil Rivers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwai San Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, arcane said: The Bills have a window as long as Josh Allen is healthy and here. With all of our problems, and with all of the development he still needs to do before he's at his peak, we are 7-2 with the schedule that made everyone poop their pants, and exactly 1 scary team left on it the rest of the way (though several good teams). He will consistently get us to where we need to be to have a chance, even when the team is struggling elsewhere Who do you think is the 1 scary team??? I think you might be "record basing" that thought......yesterday they didn't look so hot if it is whom I think you are going to say.....honestly I would venture several, actually more than several really good teams are left to play....ain't no cakewalk thats for sure!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Tom Brady won a super bowl in 2019, with an average salary over $20 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwai San Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, DCofNC said: to the OP, the window gets tighter as soon as the rookie deal is off. That said, the one thing Beane did that’s pretty genius, is sign a ton of contracts that end the same year as Allen’s rookie deal. Basically, he freed up a ton of cap space for Josh is that was the right way to go, or to dump everything and start over if Josh washed out. I think it’s pretty safe to say, barring injury, Josh is going to get PAID. He looks the part of a franchise guy, and has drastically brought down the level/number of mistakes/issues that made everyone question of that was the case. But but but Beane is an idiot....they told me so. He needs to be tarred and feathered and driven out of town...yeah thats what "they" said...they told me themselves they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: Tom Brady won a super bowl in 2019, with an average salary over $20 million You're correct, except for this will soon get into semantics. The Super Bowl was in 2019, but the league year was 2018. Although you'd still be correct because he made 22 million. Just expecting people to tell you Mahomes won the superbowl last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 it's about percentage of the cap. 2 the pats run was the most insane thing ever and is over. beane needs to be drafting and getting steals everywhere. only pay the guys that are actually elite at their positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: You're correct, except for this will soon get into semantics. The Super Bowl was in 2019, but the league year was 2018. Although you'd still be correct because he made 22 million. Just expecting people to tell you Mahomes won the superbowl last year. Mahomes won the super bowl in 2020. It's played in January or February Doesn't matter when the league year started. The super bowl this year is played in 2021 I just stated a year Edited November 9, 2020 by Buffalo716 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 32 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: We've sparred on this before, but I just don't see this happening. The going rate for young, elite QBs is ~$40M annually, and we have plenty of cap space for an extension. It's a raw deal to ask your star players for hometown discounts this early in their career, and you'd hear the rumor mill wind up quickly if OBD was trying to shortchange foundational talents. Maybe they can sneak him in for $38-$39M, but that's not really a discount. Brees and Brady deals at $25M annually are discounts. You misperceive what I'm saying. I'm not saying the Bills will lowball Josh and try to force it down his throat. I think Josh will volunteer the discount. I'm guessing, and it's only a guess, that Josh already has bought the total team concept, and that Josh already understands the impact Brady had on his old team by taking $5 million (or more) less than he could have gotten elsewhere. Josh has surprised people throughout his career, and I think he's going to surprise people when the time comes to extend his contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoTom Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I've said for a year that I think Josh will give the Bills a discount. Josh is smart and a team guy, and he recognizes the impact of the mega-deals on the ability of the GM to put together a winner. I I think Josh will leave money on the table. 48 minutes ago, WideNine said: I think Allen is about team, not that I think he would take or deserve some kind of bargain-basement agreement, BUT I could see him taking a very long-term agreement that spreads the hit out over the years in a more cap-friendly way that allows Beane to continue to surround him with talented players. I agree with both of you. On top of the reasons you listed, remember that Josh wasn't recruited out of HS, had to beg for a scholarship out of junior college, and went into the draft being called one of the least NFL-ready QBs. The Bills ignored all that and gave him a shot when other teams passed him over. I think he'll remember that and give the team a loyalty discount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 59 minutes ago, PaattMaann said: I know itll never happen with a young QB getting his first "pay me"/life changing money, but it would be great to see Josh do an ole' Tom Brady and take less so the team can be built around him. Not hating on guys getting paid at all, short window to make all you can while you can. Just commenting it would be nice lol Just getting drafted brings life changing money, Josh will have made enough money on his rookie contract to never have to work again and live really well, hell, even Levi Wallace is pulling down $700,000.00 annually. That’s life changing money period. That’s a top 3% earner in America and top 1% world wide. Even Practice squad guys make a lot of money compared to the rest of the country. Its odd that people would think making six figures and more annually isn’t life changing money, color me confused. (I guess if your the type to piss it all away then your just cognitively challenged) I suspect Josh will sign a somewhat team friendly deal, jmo, been wrong before... 😁 Go Bills!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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