Are our WRs not getting separation? Or is it Allen?

[Rubes]

One trend I've noticed in the last 3-4 games is that Allen has a huge amount of time in the pocket, but is just not pulling the trigger—at least not until very late. I can't quite figure out if it's Allen not trusting his receivers, or if the receivers just aren't getting separation. It seems incredibly unlikely that it's the latter, given the quality of our WRs and what we saw in the first few weeks. Especially this last game, against a NE**** team that was down their best CB and really had sub-par DBs.

 

It sure seemed like the first 4 games Josh was getting rid of it early, and trusting his WRs to make the catch even in tight windows. Is he just not doing it as much now? Or are our WRs just not getting the separation they were getting earlier in the season? Just baffling to me.

 

[Virgil]

It's the safety coverage over top.  They may have a step, but are also running towards coverage.  We have no problem getting open in short yardage, but it's not the game we want to play. 

[quinnearlysghost88]

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

It's the safety coverage over top.  They may have a step, but are also running towards coverage.  We have no problem getting open in short yardage, but it's not the game we want to play. 

 

Allen seemed to use that to good effect in the Jets game, but not so much in others.

 

Is this also more of a shift in defenses from man to zone? Seems like our WRs can take advantage of that.

 

[Putin]

2 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

This ^^^^ 

[2003Contenders]

Defenses have adjusted. The early book on Allen was to stack the box, keep him in the pocket and force him to be a QB. When he rose to the challenge in those first 4 games, the defenses instead have tried to play a lot of 2-deep and double-cover Diggs. Having John Brown banged up has also hurt the passing game and the ability to take shots downfield. In review of the Chiefs and Jets games, there really was nowhere for Josh to go with the ball. It will be interesting to review the All-22 from yesterday's game -- as you said, there were numerous occasions where Josh had plenty of time and still could not locate an open receiver. And that was with a banged up NE secondary.

 

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

 

I agree, and I think everyone noticed when the Pats**** came out with 7 DBs. I was hoping we would take advantage of that and run the ball down their throats, and it was actually nice to see it happen.

 

I still just wonder if Josh is having issues trusting the WRs to make the catch. I mean, some of the throws earlier in the year were into crazy tight windows.

 

[Success]

I mean, it's a little tough to gauge from yesterday.  The conditions were just bad, for both QB's.  

 

I thought Allen made good decisions yesterday, all things considered.  If you look at most of the passes on both sides, neither QB was trying to thread any needles. They mainly threw it when guys were pretty open.

 

[Dr.Sack]

It’s a combination of factors including John Brown out, lack of TE’s as a relief valve in between the hash marks, lack of execution by the route runners, drops, and a reluctance by Allen to put the ball in harms way as defenses are basically forcing us to play underneath their zone. 

[billsfan89]

The Jets and Titans gave the Bills a soft zone to take away the deep stuff. Against the Titans Josh got impatient and took shots deep and it didn't work out. Josh carved up the Jets and easily took what they gave him, but he just struggled in the red zone. Against the Chiefs Josh got blitzed in bad weather and it wasn't pretty. Against the Pats the running attack was cooking so they just stuck with that. 

 

Overall I don't think Josh or the WR's are a problem. Josh just needs to adjust his game to what the defense is giving him and things will pan out.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Allen seemed to use that to good effect in the Jets game, but not so much in others.

 

Is this also more of a shift in defenses from man to zone? Seems like our WRs can take advantage of that.

 

I think it's happening around the league.  Teams are playing more zone to keep the play in front of them, especially if the QB can run.   Playing man against teams like the Bills is deadly, because you get beat once in a while, and you give Allen some big opportunities to run.  Against the zone, if you want anything that is at least a little bit downfield, you need the whole pass pattern to play out before you can throw.   Receivers have to run their routes so that the zone reshapes itself in response to threats, and then receivers have to run to the openings created in the zone by the reshaping.   It takes time.   

 

Allen seemed to do an excellent job waiting for the opportunities to arise.   

 

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's happening around the league.  Teams are playing more zone to keep the play in front of them, especially if the QB can run.   Playing man against teams like the Bills is deadly, because you get beat once in a while, and you give Allen some big opportunities to run.  Against the zone, if you want anything that is at least a little bit downfield, you need the whole pass pattern to play out before you can throw.   Receivers have to run their routes so that the zone reshapes itself in response to threats, and then receivers have to run to the openings created in the zone by the reshaping.   It takes time.   

 

Allen seemed to do an excellent job waiting for the opportunities to arise.   

 

 

That's a nice explanation, thanks.

 

[Clemfield2622]

I think it is a combination of things. Teams are taking the deep stuff away, while also getting good pressure.

 

Some teams are blitzing, but a lot are getting good pressure with 4. Particularly up the middle, particularly over Brian Winters. Allen is being forced off his spot, and often rolling out. 

 

If we get Morse and Ford back, with Feliciano in, i think the pass blocking will come up a level and give Josh more time in the pocket to feel comfortable again. 

[BITE ME]

John Brown injury is the problem.  When your number 2 receiver has 1 catch in the last 6 games you are going to struggle.

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, Clemfield2622 said:

I think it is a combination of things. Teams are taking the deep stuff away, while also getting good pressure.

 

Some teams are blitzing, but a lot are getting good pressure with 4. Particularly up the middle, particularly over Brian Winters. Allen is being forced off his spot, and often rolling out. 

 

If we get Morse and Ford back, with Feliciano in, i think the pass blocking will come up a level and give Josh more time in the pocket to feel comfortable again. 

 

I didn't get the sense, at least yesterday, that Josh was getting tremendous pressure in the pocket. He was sitting back there a lot, waiting, waiting, waiting, then finally pulling the trigger.

 

[quinnearlysghost88]

5 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

I agree, and I think everyone noticed when the Pats**** came out with 7 DBs. I was hoping we would take advantage of that and run the ball down their throats, and it was actually nice to see it happen.

 

I still just wonder if Josh is having issues trusting the WRs to make the catch. I mean, some of the throws earlier in the year were into crazy tight windows.

 

The consequence of running more is Josh gets fewer game reps, so he might be a little rusty. Also Davis dropped a TD, which could’ve boosted his stats a little. No TD passes in two games doesn’t look great. 

[TBBills]

Allen hasn't been throwing the ball like he was in the first 4 weeks. He isn't bad but he is also clearly needs to relax and get back to his easy flow in the first 4 weeks. 

 

If you watch first 4 weeks he was like a leaf in the wind with his motion, his motion has been more tense as of late and it changed the way his passes come out.

Edited November 2, 2020 by TBBills

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

The consequence of running more is Josh gets fewer game reps, so he might be a little rusty. Also Davis dropped a TD, which could’ve boosted his stats a little. No TD passes in two games doesn’t look great. 

 

Actually, I think the main consequence is that drives take longer, which means fewer drives per game and fewer opportunities for TDs.

 

A little like our strategy against KC and the Giants strategy against the Bills in SBXXV, keeping pass-happy teams running the ball helps keep the scoring low and the game tighter.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Let's see what happens with a healthy Brown and Diggs

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Defenses have adjusted. The early book on Allen was to stack the box, keep him in the pocket and force him to be a QB. When he rose to the challenge in those first 4 games, the defenses instead have tried to play a lot of 2-deep and double-cover Diggs. Having John Brown banged up has also hurt the passing game and the ability to take shots downfield. In review of the Chiefs and Jets games, there really was nowhere for Josh to go with the ball. It will be interesting to review the All-22 from yesterday's game -- as you said, there were numerous occasions where Josh had plenty of time and still could not locate an open receiver. And that was with a banged up NE secondary.

 

 

But this was against NE and Belichick.  I'll bet even after looking at the All-22 you may think that was simple, Allen just didn't read it correctly, he waited too long.  But knowing it was NE, there likely were things going on that were better disguised than when facing other teams and while viewing the tape may not be obvious, to Allens eyes, thinks may have looked different at least on some drop backs.

[TBBills]

This team really needs to hit the Bye week.

[Chandler#81]

Just a guess, @Rubes, but I think he knows he can ‘hit the big one’ now every time he drops back and waits to see if the Defense is indeed determined to take the big play away -and if Diggs & Brown can still get behind them. Then as seconds tick away and pressure nears, he looks ‘low’ to Beasley/RBs/TEs. 

 

Again, just a guess as we don’t get All-22 views during a telecast. By week 4, the Raiders were determined to stop the big pass, but he STILL delivered incredible throws & catches deep down field.

[golfball323]

Josh's development is still in progress. He doesn't have the quick strike (in terms of time from snap) club in his bag yet. Remember all those games where Brady, Rivers and Manning would have against us where they got rid of the ball under two seconds?

 

Josh needs to develop that for us to become a complete offense.

 

[Sharky7337]

On the athletic pod cast they mentioned that the bills have been still attempting those throws at the 4 most in the NFL but Josh Allen has the worst qb rating on throws over ten yards in the last 4 games.

 

So it's execution and defenses but Allen has not been playing as well.

[H2o]

22 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

I remember at least 5 or 6 occasions from yesterday where even the commentators mentioned BB had put 7 DB's on the field. No one is really going to be able to pass in that. Thankfully the running game stepped up yesterday. 

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

 

It would help if we had a good TE too. Right now teams are selling out to take our WRs out of the game and daring us to beat then with our RBs and TEs. Finally yesterday we showed we can run the ball. A TE that could run seam routes and catch the ball would be a huge help.

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

1. A TE that could run seam routes

2. and catch the ball would be a huge help.

1. Check

2. 

 

..... If only Knox spent his every waking hour with a Jugs machine. 

[Buffalo Boy]

16 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

The consequence of running more is Josh gets fewer game reps, so he might be a little rusty. Also Davis dropped a TD, which could’ve boosted his stats a little. No TD passes in two games doesn’t look great. 

The pass to Davis was beautiful. Hate the kid didn’t catch it but rookies gonna rookie sometimes.

I would like to see them send McKenzie on some fly routes. Diggs and Brown don’t have that kind of  scary speed

15 minutes ago, golfball323 said:

Josh's development is still in progress. He doesn't have the quick strike (in terms of time from snap) club in his bag yet. Remember all those games where Brady, Rivers and Manning would have against us where they got rid of the ball under two seconds?

 

Josh needs to develop that for us to become a complete offense.

 

We need to have shallower routes for him to go to.

[John from Riverside]

If teams are going to play all those DBs it makes sense to run the ball......a lot

 

It just worked on Sunday.

 

As far as Allen..I think BB still confuses Josh a bit....but he definately showed improvement against him on Sunday

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

I would still like to see us take a couple of deep shots to keep the defense honest and have the WR compete for the ball, or hope for a pass interference at least.

[Big Turk]

34 minutes ago, Success said:

I mean, it's a little tough to gauge from yesterday.  The conditions were just bad, for both QB's.  

 

I thought Allen made good decisions yesterday, all things considered.  If you look at most of the passes on both sides, neither QB was trying to thread any needles. They mainly threw it when guys were pretty open.

 

 

Sal said they weren't actually that bad...just a few gusts from time to time.

9 minutes ago, H2o said:

1. Check

2. 

 

..... If only Knox spent his every waking hour with a Jugs machine. 

 

Just as a question...why can't a WR run a seam route?

[H2o]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Just as a question...why can't a WR run a seam route?

They can, but they don't draw LB's in coverage like  a TE does. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Let's not discount how incredibly windy it was yesterday.  Allen may have been a little more hesitant to throw the ball to covered WRs because of the wind.  He had Davis in the EZ for what should have been a TD and the INT seemed pretty clearly like a miscommunication based off Diggs patting his own chest on the sideline appearing to say "that was on me."

 

Allen is the QB we need in the late Fall and early Winter in Buffalo.  I'm confident about that.

 

He just needs to keep progressing against zone coverages, which I think he's doing.

 

We beat the Patriots and our Offense generally moved the ball pretty easily against a Bill Bellichick coached Defense.  I'm still stoked.

[ILBillsfan]

22 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

If teams are going to play all those DBs it makes sense to run the ball......a lot

 

It just worked on Sunday.

 

As far as Allen..I think BB still confuses Josh a bit....but he definately showed improvement against him on Sunday

That audible vs the cover zero blitz says otherwise he got the hoodie there for a nice twenty yard gain to Brown

[Mat68]

30 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

The pass to Davis was beautiful. Hate the kid didn’t catch it but rookies gonna rookie sometimes.

I would like to see them send McKenzie on some fly routes. Diggs and Brown don’t have that kind of  scary speed

We need to have shallower routes for him to go to.

McKenzie cant track the ball the way Brown or Diggs do.  Mckenzie is a decent back up in the slot and his jet sweeps.  Thats really it.  

[JaCrispy]

Allen...he is less decisive against zone and, as a result, tends to hold onto the ball too long.

[34-78-83]

56 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Allen hasn't been throwing the ball like he was in the first 4 weeks. He isn't bad but he is also clearly needs to relax and get back to his easy flow in the first 4 weeks. 

 

If you watch first 4 weeks he was like a leaf in the wind with his motion, his motion has been more tense as of late and it changed the way his passes come out.

Part of that is also because of a heavy constant sleet in one game (KC) and 20-40 mph gusts in another (yesterday vs NE).

[BubbaT]

Facing 6 and 7 DB's will have that affect. Now showing they can run the ball might make throwing easier again.

[Buffalo Boy]

19 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

McKenzie cant track the ball the way Brown or Diggs do.  Mckenzie is a decent back up in the slot and his jet sweeps.  Thats really it.  

The point is to have a legit over the top guy. 
We honestly don’t know what he can do because Josh wasn’t able to throw deep with any sort of accuracy before this year.

Ted Ginn sucked until he got with Cam and all of a sudden he became a bonafide deep threat.

One deep TD to McKenzie and this O becomes less defendable at all distances if we are healthy.

[Rc2catch]

I put some blame on daboll and Allen. 
Allen loves the big play and gives up on the gimme throws at times while watching downfield. Daboll seems stubborn at implementing and calling a short pass game. Seems everyone goes 15-20 yards deep on lots of plays. I’d like to see Kroft worked in more in the 5-10 yard range. I also like singletary 1 on 1 in the flat. He may not be fast but 99% of the time the first guy is never going to tackle him.