Peter King's Annual Mock Draft: Miami trades up for Herbert. Pats trade up for Tua.

[Doc Brown]

Interesting mock having Dolphins trading up to #3 for Herbert and Tua slipping all the way to #13 with the Pats trading up to get him.  I wouldn't be thrilled with the Pats getting Tua.  Jets take OT Becton.

 

3. Miami (trade with Detroit)—Justin Herbert, quarterback, Oregon

It’s funny. Whether Miami makes the trade or not, I think Miami and Detroit will make the same picks. I do think, for the peace of mind and to prevent anyone from leapfrogging them, the Dolphins would be smart to deal the 39th overall pick to Detroit to move up two slots here. Anyway, I don’t know if Herbert’s going to be Miami’s pick. My pick is based on Miami choosing to go conservative here instead of trying to hit a triple in the gap by picking Tua Tagovailoa. Because the Dolphins have done a good job hiding their intentions, I won’t be shocked either way—if they go the risky way with Tua, or if they repeat 2006 and make the safe call with Herbert. Daunte Culpepper, 2006; Herbert, 2020. And they’ll hope it’s a better result this time. My theory is that Tagovailoa would have been the pick had he not dislocated his hip last November. But if it is Herbert, he’ll get to sit behind a pro’s pro, Ryan Fitzpatrick, for a year or most of a year, and be in position to take over in a more normal 2021 season.

 

13. New England (trade with San Francisco)—Tua Tagovailoa, quarterback, Alabama 

So Tagovailoa could drop, and Bill Belichick really doesn’t want to take a quarterback now, with one draft pick in the top 85 this year and needs all over his roster. And truly: I have no indication, no inside information, that says he’d do this. It’s simply a guess. But think if you’re Belichick. Because your team never finishes 3-13, you never have a chance to get one of the best quarterbacks in the college game. Until Tagovailoa’s hip popped out of the socket last November, forcing immediate and urgent surgery, he was 1/1A with the transcendent Joe Burrow to be the first pick in this draft. And you don’t want to pillage the lone first or lone second-round pick from next year’s draft. But do you do it for a great but pockmarked talent such as Tagovailoa five months after major hip surgery? I do know Belichick would have confidence in his player-procurement skills.

I also don’t know what the New England orthopods will say about him. I do know one respected team doctor for an NFL team who gave Tagovailoa the once-over at the combine, and I asked him what he thought about Tagovailoa’s propensity for injury while at Alabama—a broken hand, two high-ankle sprains, and a hip dislocation most recently. This is what this doctor—whose team is not in the market for a first-round quarterback—told me Thursday:

 

“These contact injuries are part of the game. You ask yourself, ‘Is this guy injury-prone, or does he have a bullseye on him because he’s a crucial player on his team?’ I’ve seen a few of the hip dislocations in football, and my experience is that if you lose blood supply to the hip for a long-enough period of time, you’re in trouble. I don’t think that was the case here. As I see it, the effects of the dislocation might show up when he’s 35, but not when he’s 25.”

 

Cautiously optimistic then. Tough call for a franchise, but when would the Patriots ever get a shot at a potential superstar quarterback? Even if they had to throw in next year’s first-rounder, I think this would be a risk worth taking for the Patriots.

 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Doc Brown

[GunnerBill]

If Tua slides that far, yes I could see it. But Tua won't slide that far.

[Xwnyer]

What would the cheats give up to get to this pick?

[2003Contenders]

1 hour ago, Xwnyer said:

What would the cheats give up to get to this pick?

Would have to be this year's 1 and 2 and next year's 1 at a MINIMUM. Probably more than that.

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If Tua slides that far, yes I could see it. But Tua won't slide that far.

Is there any chance he gets past the Chargers? They don't need him to start right away, which relieves the injury stress a bit. 

[Coach Tuesday]

My ears are ringing....

[Rico]

"Anthony Lynn doesn’t view—at least now—Tyrod Taylor as a bridge quarterback. He thinks he can be a good NFL starter."

[Pbomb]

14 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Would have to be this year's 1 and 2 and next year's 1 at a MINIMUM. Probably more than that.

They don’t have a 2 this year, used it to get Sanu(haha). But I agree would take their first this year and next and they have 3 late thirds this year for trade capital. All five picks would probably get them in the 6-8 pick range

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, Rico said:

"Anthony Lynn doesn’t view—at least now—Tyrod Taylor as a bridge quarterback. He thinks he can be a good NFL starter."

 

 

The only question is which orifice it's coming out of...

 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Is there any chance he gets past the Chargers? They don't need him to start right away, which relieves the injury stress a bit. 

 

I don't think so. I think the likelihood is three QBs in the first 6 picks. If there is one to slide I still despite all the smoke say it is Herbert. If the Pats want to trade up for him with next year's 1st I'd say be my guest.

[Gugny]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If Tua slides that far, yes I could see it. But Tua won't slide that far.

 

I don't get it.  Bum hips and 13 on the Wonderlic.  Thank God we don't need a QB.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Gugny said:

 

I don't get it.  Bum hips and 13 on the Wonderlic.  Thank God we don't need a QB.

 

Put me in the camp who thinks the wonderlic is utterly and totally useless.

[Rico]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I don't get it.  Bum hips and 13 on the Wonderlic.  Thank God we don't need a QB.

I didn't know Tua was a 13 on the Wonderlic.

[IgotBILLStopay]

SMH @ these national pundits

 

1. There will be a lot more trades. 49ers, colts, bucs, seahawks, vikes also likely involved in trades.

2. Miami now unsure about Herbert. still possible they go Tua.

3. No way Herbert / Tua slip past #7.

4. Becton not going to Jets at 11. If Wills / Thomas / Wirfs are gone, Jets will go WR. Rookie GM will never pick a guy who has been flagged.

5. No way Minny goes Diggs. C’mon.

6. Jordan Love will go first round.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

SMH @ these national pundits

 

1. There will be a lot more trades. 49ers, colts, bucs, seahawks, vikes also likely involved in trades.

2. Miami now unsure about Herbert. still possible they go Tua.

3. No way Herbert / Tua slip past #7.

4. Becton not going to Jets at 11. If Wills / Thomas / Wirfs are gone, Jets will go WR. Rookie GM will never pick a guy who has been flagged.

5. No way Minny goes Diggs. C’mon.

6. Jordan Love will go first 

 

4 is interesting. Not thought about that but you might be right. If he slides Miami takes him at #18 I am sure. 

[aristocrat]

would the jags really let tua slide after passing on mahomes and watson years ago?

[eball]

I stopped reading when I saw "transcendent" Joe Burrow.  LOL

[Paup 1995MVP]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I don't get it.  Bum hips and 13 on the Wonderlic.  Thank God we don't need a QB.

My son plays DE at Georgia Southern.  Has two more years of eligibility after a bad knee injury last season in the LSU game.  He has rehabbed very well after surgery.  And will be good to go for this season.  (one thing I have learned is who does your surgery makes ALL the difference in the world.  I know many orthos in the Atlanta area, and I got him with one who was much better then the team Ortho)  Hopefully he balls out for two years and can be at least a mid round draft pick.  

 

I apologize for the digression.  My point is that my son staying w me while school is shut down took a wonderlic on Saturday for the heck of it.  He got a 45.  Don't know how long it took him.  But he said it was easy as can be.  He is smart but not a genius.  (Had not much idea how to do his accounting work on line last nite)  Makes me wonder how anyone can get a 13.  That is poor.  If Burrow got a 34 and Stanley got a 40, wth is Tua doing?  Just something to think about.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Paup 1995MVP said:

My son plays DE at Georgia Southern.  Has two more years of eligibility after a bad knee injury last season in the LSU game.  He has rehabbed very well after surgery.  And will be good to go for this season.  (one thing I have learned is who does your surgery makes ALL the difference in the world.  I know many orthos in the Atlanta area, and I got him with one who was much better then the team Ortho)  Hopefully he balls out for two years and can be at least a mid round draft pick.  

 

I apologize for the digression.  My point is that my son staying w me while school is shut down took a wonderlic on Saturday for the heck of it.  He got a 45.  Don't know how long it took him.  But he said it was easy as can be.  He is smart but not a genius.  (Had not much idea how to do his accounting work on line last nite)  Makes me wonder how anyone can get a 13.  That is poor.  If Burrow got a 34 and Stanley got a 40, wth is Tua doing?  Just something to think about.  

 

Lamar Jackson also got a 13 fwiw

[dollars 2 donuts]

22 minutes ago, Rico said:

I didn't know Tua was a 13 on the Wonderlic.

 

big deel.  I got a phive on the wonderlic and I turned out unbrokenized.

[BuffaloRebound]

So the Chargers are gonna pass on Tua because of Tyrod Taylor and the Patriots are gonna trade up to 13 without a 2nd rounder this year.  Fanboys of 1 team shouldn’t do mock drafts.  That’s like a Bills fan doing a mock where Lamb or Jeudy falls to the late 1st and Beane magically trades up from 54.  

[DCOrange]

39 minutes ago, Rico said:

I didn't know Tua was a 13 on the Wonderlic.

Tbf, we don't actually know what he got. There's been three different reported numbers for him. 13, 19, and 24. All are less than ideal but 24 is basically an average score.

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Tbf, we don't actually know what he got. There's been three different reported numbers for him. 13, 19, and 24. All are less than ideal but 24 is basically an average score.

We do know what he got. He got a 13 the first time he took but got a 19 later. Herbert went from 25 to 39. 

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Lamar Jackson also got a 13 fwiw

 

Complete waste of time the whole thing. You might as well make them all enter a pissing contest and whomever pisses the furthest should be made QB1. 

[thurst44]

32 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Lamar Jackson also got a 13 fwiw

Also, Jim Kelly got a 15 and famously did pretty OK with the mental aspect of quarterbacking. Dan Marino got a 16. Tyrod got a 15 and one could argue its his improvisational acumen on the field which has allowed him to occasionally start in the NFL in spite of lesser talent.

 

In this group, Jerry Jeudy got a 9, and while I know it's not as important for WRs, his college tape immediately impressed me as one of the smarter route runners.  

Edited April 20, 2020 by thurst44

[Rico]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

Also, Jim Kelly got a 15 and famously did pretty OK with the mental part of playcalling. Dan Marino got a 16. Tyrod got a 15 and one could argue its his improvisational acumen on the field which has allowed him to occasionally start in the NFL in spite of lesser talent.

 

In this group, Jerry Jeudy got a 9, and while I know it's not as important for WRs, his college tape immediately impressed me as one of the smarter route runners.  

Well, absolutely no doubt it is better to be football-smart than smart-smart... but I will still laugh at any player that gets a 13.

[Putin]

36 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Lamar Jackson also got a 13 fwiw

We are talking QB’s 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

Also, Jim Kelly got a 15 and famously did pretty OK with the mental aspect of quarterbacking. Dan Marino got a 16. Tyrod got a 15 and one could argue its his improvisational acumen on the field which has allowed him to occasionally start in the NFL in spite of lesser talent.

 

In this group, Jerry Jeudy got a 9, and while I know it's not as important for WRs, his college tape immediately impressed me as one of the smarter route runners.  

 

I think they use it to try and gauge processing speed for QBs?  It's not super effective.  LJ is probably the first modern era QB to have real success though while having a very low score.

 

Tua also apparently was not very good on the white board though - so I think that may be more concerning than anything else.

[Phil The Thrill]

Predicting trades in drafts is especially useless because there are so many factors that come into play. Take no stock in Peter’s mock draft here.

 

[offyourocker]

The great thing about Peter King is that you can guarantee what ever he says will not happen

[yungmack]

King's list is silly and awful. I doubt a single pick goes the way he thinks.

[Philly McButterpants]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

So the Chargers are gonna pass on Tua because of Tyrod Taylor and the Patriots are gonna trade up to 13 without a 2nd rounder this year.  Fanboys of 1 team shouldn’t do mock drafts.  That’s like a Bills fan doing a mock where Lamb or Jeudy falls to the late 1st and Beane magically trades up from 54.  

 

Yes!  Exactly.  Amazing how some how some superstar "falls" to the Pat*s in every one of PK's mocks.  

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If Tua slides that far, yes I could see it. But Tua won't slide that far.

If Miami out of fear over Tua's health status takes Herbert they will be making the same blunder that they did when they didn't take Brees because they worried about his health status. Brees revived the New Orleans franchise and has had a HOF career while the Dolphins have floundered for a generation with a multitude of mediocre qbs. 

 

Herbert has the prototypical football body. Tua is immensely the better football player. My prediction is that Miami will stay at the five spot and select Tua. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

If Miami out of fear over Tua's health status takes Herbert they will be making the same blunder that they did when they didn't take Brees because they worried about his health status. Brees revived the New Orleans franchise and has had a HOF career while the Dolphins have floundered for a generation with a multitude of mediocre qbs. 

 

Herbert has the prototypical football body. Tua is immensely the better football player. My prediction is that Miami will stay at the five spot and select Tua. 

 

Great take, John.

 

btw, I am not making comparison’s between the players, but I happen to remember when an Oklahoma St RB fell all the way to the second round in the ‘88 draft because teams were worried about his injuries.  The team that took him took him with their first pick in the draft...thankfully that worked out well for both.

Edited April 20, 2020 by dollars 2 donuts

[Mark Vader]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If Tua slides that far, yes I could see it. But Tua won't slide that far.

If Tua fell that far, why wouldn't  the 49'ers take him? They need a QB.

[BuffaloRebound]

Jax needs a QB too.    

[Formerly Allan in MD]

5 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Lamar Jackson also got a 13 fwiw

Can't believe Terry Bradshaw did much better.

[Chicken Boo]

Why the hell would anyone trade up for Herbert?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

No way Chargers do not come away from the first round without a QB

[Punching Bag]

Any GM which trades so Cheats can get QB is stupid and even more so if they will be competitive enough for shot at Superbowl.