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The REAL reason Duke Didnt Catch The TD Pass


StHustle

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2 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

Duke didn't catch it because he's not an NFL caliber impact WR, he's an undrafted fringe roster worthy CFL free agent signing.

 

Beane needs to finish building this WR corp. The 2018 WR group was an embarrassment for any professional football team trying to win. Adding Brown and Beasley was a massive improvement but the remainder of the group is just as bad as 18 and has zero draft capital invested in it.

 

It's lunacy that Duke, who didn't even dress half the year and sparingly played got 10 targets and the largest script in the passing game in our playoff matchup. That's on coaching 100%. It's a slap in the face to Brown and Beasley too, those guys should be ripping.

How is it that even with picture and video evidence there can be people denying that it was clear DPI and not a drop. NFL caliber Wrs drop much easier balls than that routinely. 

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3 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

How is it that even with picture and video evidence there can be people denying that it was clear DPI and not a drop. NFL caliber Wrs drop much easier balls than that routinely. 

 

Are you serious?

The ball was obviously there and gone in that photo.

Look at the slo-mo video on the prior page in this thread.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

How is it that even with picture and video evidence there can be people denying that it was clear DPI and not a drop. NFL caliber Wrs drop much easier balls than that routinely. 

NFL impact WRs make that catch, hit him square in the hands. Contested catches always have contact, that's the nature of contested catches and thus impact players make those.

 

Duke just isn't that good. That's why he was undrafted, went to the CFL, and was a rookie at age 26.

 

Bottom of the roster fringe talent. 

 

Keep building the WR corps so we don't have to watch guys like him.

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2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

 

This is the best clip of the action. The pass was pretty much perfect and could have been caught but it would have been a sensational play. Close but no cigar. Funny how people can interpret the same action differently. When he goes up for it Duke's body is rotating away from the ball possibly in an effort to adjust to the trajectory of the pass and possibly to box out the defender. In that situation it would be difficult for Duke to get both hands on the ball when it first gets there. So what he tried to do was deaden/stabilize it with his right hand and then lock it up/posses it with his left. But the defender got his hand in to prevent that. Tough chance. 

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12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There are two people on this board:

  • Those who think Duke is a scrub because he played in the CFL.
  • Those who see a guy who was going to be a first round pick before getting suspended who has upside and a skill set our other guys dont.

There is no in between.  There is no shifting anyone from one side to the other.  

 

Bottom line:  Duke bashers were wrong, they wont ever admit it, but they were because they said he would never make the roster, let alone start or contribute.  

 

That doesn't mean Duke is a lock for next years roster or is our future savior at WR.  It means, the kid has potential and he stuck around this long and made an impact at end of season for a reason.  I think he will be here competing again next year.  Whether or not he makes the team or where he is at on the depth chart I think will have a lot to do with what Beane does in both FA and Draft.

 

If Beane just drafts a guy, Duke is going to have a good shot to not only be on the team, but likely open up camp competing to start with the rookie.  If Beane both signs a guy like say AJ Green and also invests an early pick on a WR, then I think Duke is looking at competing for the 5th WR spot next year at best.  

 

Good post. Agree with all of this. 

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26 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Thread over. 

 

Congratulations OP, you have created a great thread to prove that Duke dropped that pass. Well done. 

 

This is the very play Duke has to make to have value. He doesn’t separate, he doesn’t play special teams, he doesn’t offer a whole lot after the catch. If he wants to be in the NFL he needs to make this play in the biggest game of his life on a perfect pass. He didn’t. That’s not the end of his career, but it’ll take work to overcome. 

 

Duke is is exactly what we thought he was- a project WR who is a fringe NFL player. Give him every chance to win a job next year, but if the WR room is upgraded as it should be, it’ll be a pretty tough row to hoe.

As I told my friend after the game, who is a big Duke fan.....If he's going to be the big, sure handed WR who makes tough catches then he's got to come down with that, it was a perfect pass. Otherwise what is the value of having him on the roster? Not picking on Duke, not saying he can't or won't improve.

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I like Duke and I think he has a place on this team. Foster can be active and play special teams or fill in for Brown to be the deep threat if he gets hurt. I think he misjudged the ball in the endzone and didnt get two hands on it to pull it in before the defender could do anything. The Bills need an offensive playmaker to go along with Brown, Beasley, and Duke. Someone with a big catch radius that is open even though he is not open. The Bills should cut Lee Smith and try to sign Austin Hooper. Smith might be a little bit better of a blocker but Hooper is very productive catching passes. He missed three games due to injury but still had almost 800 yards and 6 TDs this season. 

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2 hours ago, Rob's House said:


 

It's also equally accurate to say his drop rate is 3.5 percentage points higher, 47% higher, or Metcalf's is 33% lower. 

 

The only real takeaway is that you can skew impressions depending on how you choose to frame the numbers. The sample size is far too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

And actually, to your second point, it would be equivalent to 2 picks in 3 games vs. 7 in 16. Your miscalculation skewed Duke's ratio by 50%.

Still, that's 70 drops vs. 105 drops over 1000 targets. 

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36 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

As I told my friend after the game, who is a big Duke fan.....If he's going to be the big, sure handed WR who makes tough catches then he's got to come down with that, it was a perfect pass. Otherwise what is the value of having him on the roster? Not picking on Duke, not saying he can't or won't improve.

 

Yup. There are gonna be guys in the later rounds who are as big, a bit faster, and catch better and it’s gonna be hard to ignore them for Duke. I’m sure he’ll be at camp and I wish him the best as he looks for his opportunity. 

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Duke Williams is 26 years old

There is lots of professional film on Duke

Duke has been on multiple NFL rosters

Teams know his strengths and weaknesses

 

Teams pay a premium for potential. For the unknown. 

 

Many players come in and out of the NFL. Look at just our Buffalo Bills stats over the years. You will see names and many will not even remember guys that actually put up ok numbers for a year or two. 

 

Lets stop pretending Duke is better than this guy or that guy. If he was many teams could have him. The Bills could have played him all year. Reality is still that he is a fringe NFL player until he proves otherwise. He will need a good off-season and will be fighting for a roster spot next year. 

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1 hour ago, ArtVandalay said:

Duke didn't catch it because he's not an NFL caliber impact WR, he's an undrafted fringe roster worthy CFL free agent signing.

 

Beane needs to finish building this WR corp. The 2018 WR group was an embarrassment for any professional football team trying to win. Adding Brown and Beasley was a massive improvement but the remainder of the group is just as bad as 18 and has zero draft capital invested in it.

 

It's lunacy that Duke, who didn't even dress half the year and sparingly played got 10 targets and the largest script in the passing game in our playoff matchup. That's on coaching 100%. It's a slap in the face to Brown and Beasley too, those guys should be ripping.

You realize Josh didn’t have to target Duke right? What a dumb comment. Josh obviously has a connection w Duke timing and feel wise. 

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5 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

 

Honestly, what this throw shows me even moreso is that Duke should have been active all season and Foster shouldn't have been.

 

How many times did we even see Allen make that throw this year?

 

He wouldn't be able to even possibly make that throw to Brown or Beasly.

 

I think Duke actually would catch that pass 7 or 8 times out of 10 when given the opportunity.  And if he had the year to further develop chemistry with Allen, who knows?

 

It was a disappointing miss by Duke on a fantastic throw by Allen.

 

The future looks bright.

 

So who are the WRs in the draft who are big, fast and sure-handed?  Whoever they are, that's priority #1.

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4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Honestly, what this throw shows me even moreso is that Duke should have been active all season and Foster shouldn't have been.

 

How many times did we even see Allen make that throw this year?

 

He wouldn't be able to even possibly make that throw to Brown or Beasly.

 

I think Duke actually would catch that pass 7 or 8 times out of 10 when given the opportunity.  And if he had the year to further develop chemistry with Allen, who knows?

 

It was a disappointing miss by Duke on a fantastic throw by Allen.

 

The future looks bright.

 

So who are the WRs in the draft who are big, fast and sure-handed?  Whoever they are, that's priority #1.

 

I agree with you that Williams makes that catch 8 out of 10 times. I do think he should have been active all season as well.

 

The future is bright. Beane made a point at his presser to day about putting more talent around Allen. As for receivers in the draft, I'm personally hoping Beane can get Shenault in the 1st round; however, there are a number of good ones. Beane knows what he needs to do and I believe he will find a way to do it.

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I remember people using catch per target percentage as a knock against Zay Jones even if it wasn't his fault that the ball wasn't a completion. 

 

Duke in week 17 had a 50% catch/target percentage (6 catches on 12 targets)

Duke in the WC game had a 40% catch/target percentage. (4 catches on 10 targets)

 

So NOW we're going to acknowledge that it's not always on the WR? Interesting...

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Mickey said:

 

Is it just me or does it seem that all year, Josh's best passes in the most critical situations were dropped? 

It’s not just the passes it’s players missing just a bit

 

the Allen sweep where Knox and Morse fail to block the guy and stop a huge play from happening

 

singletary missing a block on the inside rush on mercilious that Allen gets hit from behind and fumbles 

 

it’s the third down play the line fails to protect vs a four man rush and they are on top of Allen and the grounding is called followed up by the fourth down play w a three man rush the de is again on top of Josh before he can even do anything

 

its brown on the post flute vs Peters in Balt and he doesn’t get the corner to turn to the outside before peeling to the inside

 

The defense gaffs where they allow a third and 18 nit finishing the sack it’s on both


the bills areyoung and very close and they exceeded my expectations this year excited to see them next year 

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9 hours ago, BuffaloBill963 said:

You realize Josh didn’t have to target Duke right? What a dumb comment. Josh obviously has a connection w Duke timing and feel wise. 

You realize that the coaching staff put him on the field for 66% of the snaps (more than Beasley) and gave him a huge role in the gameplan... Not just connecting those targets by chance, right? What a dumb comment.

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22 hours ago, StHustle said:

His left arm was hooked which forced an alligator arm attempt. There is NO QUESTION that he makes the catch if that didnt happen. In slow mo you can see he almost still made the grab. Great defense by the DB. Can we PLEASE put to bed the idea this was a drop???

 

DukeW.thumb.jpg.2dd8e9b7096cfcdd82a24fbebeb059bf.jpg

 

On another note...why are you Duke haters so quick to label this guy as either a #5 or even not good enough to be in the league WHEN HE WAS A ROOKIE with very few games under his belt??

Why do top draft picks get the benefit of the doubt based on lack of experience when they are the ones supposed to be so much better than the undrafted guys? Seems undrafted guys are expected to kill it out the gate or they shouldnt be on the team. Duke has 5 NFL games under his belt. Lets compare his first 5 games to DK Metcalf who has a future HOF throwing to him and was the #2 guy on the roster:

 

DK - 

26 Targets
12 Receptions
2 TD
267 Yards

 

DuKe-

29 Targets
16 Receptions
1 TD
215 Yards

 

If Duke had Russell Wilson as his QB, who doubts Duke doesnt have just as good or better numbers than DK?? Let's be real here.

I kept saying the DB did a great job on the game day post.  People had made up their minds.  

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9 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

No. What are you watching? I love the Bills as much as anyone, but there was no pass interference on the play, it was a drop.

No pass interference but not a drop either but weirdly he still should have caught it. I think it was a great defensive play by the DB because as you can see by that slow mo video, the much smaller DB hits Duke and catchs his leg spinning him first and then has the presence of mind to arm bar Duke so he doesn't get the bobble either. It was superb pass defense.  People calling this a drop should maybe watch Ronnie Harmon vs Cleveland in the playoffs or Stevie Johnson in this clip.

 

 

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23 hours ago, StHustle said:

His left arm was hooked which forced an alligator arm attempt. There is NO QUESTION that he makes the catch if that didnt happen. In slow mo you can see he almost still made the grab. Great defense by the DB. Can we PLEASE put to bed the idea this was a drop???

 

DukeW.thumb.jpg.2dd8e9b7096cfcdd82a24fbebeb059bf.jpg

 

On another note...why are you Duke haters so quick to label this guy as either a #5 or even not good enough to be in the league WHEN HE WAS A ROOKIE with very few games under his belt??

Why do top draft picks get the benefit of the doubt based on lack of experience when they are the ones supposed to be so much better than the undrafted guys? Seems undrafted guys are expected to kill it out the gate or they shouldnt be on the team. Duke has 5 NFL games under his belt. Lets compare his first 5 games to DK Metcalf who has a future HOF throwing to him and was the #2 guy on the roster:

 

DK - 

26 Targets
12 Receptions
2 TD
267 Yards

 

DuKe-

29 Targets
16 Receptions
1 TD
215 Yards

 

If Duke had Russell Wilson as his QB, who doubts Duke doesnt have just as good or better numbers than DK?? Let's be real here.

FAKE NEWS!!!! YOU FRAUD!!!! 

 

You cherry picked a moment in the play WELL after the ball got there! It's 2020, people have DVRs you know! I pulled the game up and looked and you fraudulently claim this caused the ball to not be caught but the ball clanked off his hands well before he arm wasnt hooked at all before the ball got there!!!

 

Here's a sequence of screen shots everyone!!! From TWO angles!!

 

Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/W3yJsCY/Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

 

Heres the opposite view!!

Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/rkJ2k6j/Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

 

The DBs arm is across his stomach and no where near hooking his arm until WELL after Duke dropped the ball!!

 

Fix your title or delete this post you FRAUD!!

Edited by ArtVandalay
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1 hour ago, ArtVandalay said:

FAKE NEWS!!!! YOU FRAUD!!!! 

 

You cherry picked a moment in the play WELL after the ball got there! It's 2020, people have DVRs you know! I pulled the game up and looked and you fraudulently claim this caused the ball to not be caught but the ball clanked off his hands well before he arm wasnt hooked at all before the ball got there!!!

 

Here's a sequence of screen shots everyone!!! From TWO angles!!

 

Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/W3yJsCY/Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

 

Heres the opposite view!!

Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/rkJ2k6j/Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

 

The DBs arm is across his stomach and no where near hooking his arm until WELL after Duke dropped the ball!!

 

Fix your title or delete this post you FRAUD!!

You need to up your meds.  

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On 1/6/2020 at 9:36 PM, StHustle said:

His left arm was hooked which forced an alligator arm attempt. There is NO QUESTION that he makes the catch if that didnt happen. In slow mo you can see he almost still made the grab. Great defense by the DB. Can we PLEASE put to bed the idea this was a drop???

 

DukeW.thumb.jpg.2dd8e9b7096cfcdd82a24fbebeb059bf.jpg

 

I'm not going to argue whether or not it was a drop, but it was a ball that showed up right between his hands. 

It's not an easy catch, but top NFL WR manage to haul those in with regularity.

 

On 1/6/2020 at 9:36 PM, StHustle said:

On another note...why are you Duke haters so quick to label this guy as either a #5 or even not good enough to be in the league WHEN HE WAS A ROOKIE with very few games under his belt??

 

Ooooooooooooooooooh oh oh oh oh (whisper: doit) Ooooooooooooooooooh oh oh oh oh (whisper: doit)

Do the StHustle!

 

Can we please put aside the "haters" label? 

 

On 1/6/2020 at 9:36 PM, StHustle said:

If Duke had Russell Wilson as his QB, who doubts Duke doesnt have just as good or better numbers than DK?? Let's be real here.

 

You're a funny guy.  Yes, let's be real here.

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1 hour ago, ArtVandalay said:

FAKE NEWS!!!! YOU FRAUD!!!! 

 

You cherry picked a moment in the play WELL after the ball got there! It's 2020, people have DVRs you know! I pulled the game up and looked and you fraudulently claim this caused the ball to not be caught but the ball clanked off his hands well before he arm wasnt hooked at all before the ball got there!!!

 

Here's a sequence of screen shots everyone!!! From TWO angles!!

 

Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/W3yJsCY/Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

 

Heres the opposite view!!

Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/rkJ2k6j/Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

 

The DBs arm is across his stomach and no where near hooking his arm until WELL after Duke dropped the ball!!

 

Fix your title or delete this post you FRAUD!!

Nice shots. Definitely a drop.

 

now simmer down

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1 hour ago, Livinginthepast said:

No pass interference but not a drop either but weirdly he still should have caught it. I think it was a great defensive play by the DB because as you can see by that slow mo video, the much smaller DB hits Duke and catchs his leg spinning him first and then has the presence of mind to arm bar Duke so he doesn't get the bobble either. It was superb pass defense.  People calling this a drop should maybe watch Ronnie Harmon vs Cleveland in the playoffs or Stevie Johnson in this clip.

 

 

You see it your way, I see a drop. Is it a somewhat hard catch, yes, but it's the exact ball that Duke and pretty much Duke only, is on the field to catch. It's probably the biggest reason they're playing him.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ArtVandalay said:

FAKE NEWS!!!! YOU FRAUD!!!! 

 

You cherry picked a moment in the play WELL after the ball got there! It's 2020, people have DVRs you know! I pulled the game up and looked and you fraudulently claim this caused the ball to not be caught but the ball clanked off his hands well before he arm wasnt hooked at all before the ball got there!!!

 

Here's a sequence of screen shots everyone!!! From TWO angles!!

 

Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/W3yJsCY/Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

 

Heres the opposite view!!

Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/rkJ2k6j/Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

 

The DBs arm is across his stomach and no where near hooking his arm until WELL after Duke dropped the ball!!

 

Fix your title or delete this post you FRAUD!!

Actually your post shows the pass wasn’t as perfect as it looked and the DB got his hand ? I n there before he had a chance to haul it in. He also got up and over to a place the rest of our smurf receivers never would have gone, nice job thanks for making the case for a taller receiver...

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1 hour ago, ArtVandalay said:

FAKE NEWS!!!! YOU FRAUD!!!! 

 

You cherry picked a moment in the play WELL after the ball got there! It's 2020, people have DVRs you know! I pulled the game up and looked and you fraudulently claim this caused the ball to not be caught but the ball clanked off his hands well before he arm wasnt hooked at all before the ball got there!!!

 

Here's a sequence of screen shots everyone!!! From TWO angles!!

 

Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/W3yJsCY/Polish-20200107-215055198.jpg

 

Heres the opposite view!!

Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/rkJ2k6j/Polish-20200107-215207304.jpg

 

The DBs arm is across his stomach and no where near hooking his arm until WELL after Duke dropped the ball!!

 

Fix your title or delete this post you FRAUD!!

 

 

IT WAS A PASS BREAK UP. Your shots CLEARLY show the DB got his arm in there and disrupted the play. NOT THE SAME AS A DROP!

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2 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

You realize that the coaching staff put him on the field for 66% of the snaps (more than Beasley) and gave him a huge role in the gameplan... Not just connecting those targets by chance, right? What a dumb comment.

Haha ok. Go watch Seinfeld loser 

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47 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

You're a funny guy.  Yes, let's be real here.

 

I was talking strictly first 5 games comparison. You see how close the numbers are. Am I off by saying if Wilson was Duke's QB he could have matched DK's first 5 games?

 

50 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm not going to argue whether or not it was a drop, but it was a ball that showed up right between his hands. 

It's not an easy catch, but top NFL WR manage to haul those in with regularity.

 

 

Yeah lets compare an undrafted guy elevated from the practice squad in just his 5th start with the top WRs in the league. All Im saying is give a guy a chance to grow. He is just getting his feet wet against NFL level DBs. Its known that WR is a tough position to transition to the NFL level (Yes even from the CFL where Duke was the best in the league)

 

53 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Ooooooooooooooooooh oh oh oh oh (whisper: doit) Ooooooooooooooooooh oh oh oh oh (whisper: doit)

Do the StHustle!

 

Ha! And you call me the funny guy.

 

 

Oh and "hater" label will never go away. Too many haters exist for it to ever die. And yes Duke has plenty haters who want to see Megatron or bust.

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2 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Actually your post shows the pass wasn’t as perfect as it looked and the DB got his hand ? I n there before he had a chance to haul it in. He also got up and over to a place the rest of our smurf receivers never would have gone, nice job thanks for making the case for a taller receiver...

The hand is not "in there" until well after the initial drop and Duke is already turned 90 degrees clockwise. At the time of the initial drop the defender's arm and hand are down by Duke's waist. Look at the set of four pictures again. 

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7 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Actually your post shows the pass wasn’t as perfect as it looked and the DB got his hand ? I n there before he had a chance to haul it in. He also got up and over to a place the rest of our smurf receivers never would have gone, nice job thanks for making the case for a taller receiver...

No, it really doesnt, ball was well out of his control by the time the DB got his hand there, ball was already free floating away after clanking of his hand. By the time the DB touched Duke's arm, Duke had already completely turned his body and ball was away from him not touching his hand(s) at all. 

 

If you got a DVR, pull it up. Clear drop on what was a contested catch. But that's what happens with a guy like Duke who is a fringe roster player.

7 hours ago, StHustle said:

 

 

IT WAS A PASS BREAK UP. Your shots CLEARLY show the DB got his arm in there and disrupted the play. NOT THE SAME AS A DROP!

LMAO!!! The DB never hooked his arm until WELL after losing control.

 

You started a thread with a terribly misleading picture of what you claim caused the ball to not be caught when it clearly hit him in the hands with no contact until after it clanked off him.

 

You purposely tried to mislead people its beyond ridiculous. 

 

You obviously have an agenda and clearly don't care about looking at the facts as you purposely distorted and mislead in your opening post.

 

Good day. I'm out.

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