What % did Josh improve from yr1 to yr2?

[whatdrought]

Simple question really. Use stats if you're a stat person, use eye test if you're an eye test person, use PFF if you're a moron. What percentage did he improve? 

 

For me, I think he improved 30-40% as a whole. From his accuracy (not downfield, but he did improve over the course of the season here) to his pocket presence  to his decision making to his overall command of the game.

 

Still lots of growth available, but it feels to me like those ready to quit on him are ignoring the jump he took this year, and assuming that he won't make another jump next year.

 

 

 

P.S. - He did improve. If your answer is that he didn't, you're a troll and don't belong on this thread. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by whatdrought

[DC Tom]

27.42%.  

[Scott7975]

I think your 30-40% seems pretty reasonable. 

[BuffaloRebound]

People ready to give up on him are morons.  He’s right up there with Lamar, Mahomes, and Wilson as the most talented QB’s in the NFL.  Improve the run game and give him some more weapons and watch him continue to blossom into a top a QB as he cuts out the stupid mistakes and learns when to take his shots.  

[Buffalo_Gal]

A lot. ?

They said there'd be no math!! 

[Irv]

Last year 52.8%

This year 58.8%

 

30-40% is too high.  If he could stop fumbling so much maybe he'd become elite. 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Irv

[oldmanfan]

I think the 30-40% is pretty close, probably more towards the 40%.  For young QBs the key thing is to get the game to slow down for them enough to play at a successful level.  It definitely slowed down more for him this year.  I saw evidence of him going through progressions more, his completion percentage increased, he did well running the ball.  And perhaps the most important is his ability to perform late in games to bring the team back.  I think that is the kind of unmeasurable quality you look for in a QB.

 

Saying that, however, there is still much to be done.  Josh has to get less excitable while keeping the positive aspects of his game intact.  He needs to develop more of the cold blooded type mentality rather than what we saw on a number of occasions, as in the second half Saturday.  He has to take the reckless decision making out of his game; while the lateral did not cost us anything Sunday it was still a really dumb thing to try and pull off.  He has to improve on his pre-snap reads and adjusting to blitzes; figure out that a throw away is OK many times. And I think he needs to demand that the OC takes the reins off him and let him play.

 

I don't know that you'll ever completely get the hero ball out of the kid.  But ultimately he's a 23 year old kid in his second year in the league, who I think we can reasonably expect to continue improvement next year. 

[whatdrought]

7 minutes ago, Irv said:

Last year 52.8%

This year 58.8%

 

30-40% is too high.  If he could stop fumbling so much maybe he'd become elite. 

 

 

 

You're comfortable using one metric to judge the entire season? Okay. 

 

 

Also, I agree about the fumbling. That's such a fluky problem though I expect it to get cleaned up.

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

27.42%.  

 

Not even rounding up. This is true analysis. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by whatdrought

[Jobot]

After this Houston loss, and giving the benefit of the doubt following losses to Baltimore and NE (PLUS 2- pitiful drives against the Jets), it's so hard for me NOT to attribute a large portion of his perceived improvements to the easy schedule.  I think the offense as a whole was exposed during the final stretch of the year.  It all comes down to when Allen is able to 'mask' at least the deficiencies of the offense with his play... which he is currently not able to do so.

[Bangarang]

11.16%

[Socal-805]

 

 

How much did the PASSING game improve, or is that too "STAT-ie" ?

 

 

 

[Gugny]

He played smarter, i.e. - knowing when to run, when the get out of bounds, when to throw balls away.

 

His accuracy improved.  I know it wasn't that magical 60%, but he was still better.  Yes ... lots of drops, but all QBs deal with drops.  The biggest problem with the drops, to me, was when/where they happened.  Lots of drive killers and TD preventers.

 

He showed great poise.

 

He showed great leadership.

 

Given the fact that he is surrounded by minimal NFL starting-caliber talent, I think he did a hell of a job this season.

 

All that said, I think Allen showed significant improvement and I'm certain that he will continue to do the same next year.

[Socal-805]

3 minutes ago, Jobot said:

After this Houston loss, and giving the benefit of the doubt following losses to Baltimore and NE (PLUS 2- pitiful drives against the Jets), it's so hard for me NOT to attribute a large portion of his perceived improvements to the easy schedule.  I think the offense as a whole was exposed during the final stretch of the year.  It all comes down to when Allen is able to 'mask' at least the deficiencies of the offense with his play... which he is currently not able to do so.

 

 

+ 1

[MrSarcasm]

16 minutes ago, Irv said:

If he could stop fumbling so much maybe he'd become elite. 

?

16 minutes ago, Irv said:

 

 

 

Wisest words ever spoken

Edited January 6, 2020 by MrSarcasm

[buffaloboyinATL]

I don't have a percentage, but what you said seems reasonable.  I love the fact that he improved at all, in a year that many QB's regress.  Headed in the right direction!  

[34-78-83]

He got better in almost every important area.

 

Short touch passes/ swing passes etc. - still some work to do but significantly better

Medium passes up to 20 yds (the meat and potatoes of being a good to great NFL QB) - MASSIVELY better!

Reading defenses - Significantly better (clearly following progressions and staying in the pocket much more regularly, and looking to throw when on the run)

Throwing on the run - Major improvements in accuracy here as well as decision making.

Interceptable passes - decent improvement (as a gunslinger he's always going to have some of these but in the 2nd half of the season he improved drastically).

 

He either stayed the same or regressed at:

 

Ball security when running (Almost a fumble per game rate needs to improve)

Running (stayed the same here - he's a major threat)

Long throws (he regressed here from his 1st year and needs to address this in the off season)

 

So I am not quite sure what "% better" this makes him but he improved (quite a bit) in 5/8 areas listed.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

15 minutes ago, Irv said:

Last year 52.8%

This year 58.8%

 

30-40% is too high.  If he could stop fumbling so much maybe he'd become elite. 

 

 

 

Completion % up 6 points (52.8 - 58.8)
TD% up 1.2 % (3.1 - 4.3)
INT% down 1.8% (3.8 - 2)
TD/INT ratio up from 1:1 to 5:2
Adjudsted Y/A up 1.3 (5.4 - 6.7)
QB rating up 17.4 (67.9 - 85.3)

Generated the 6th most TDs in the NFL

 

All while having:

 

The highest percentage of passes dropped

The 3rd most passes thrown away

The 14th most passes tipped or batted down

Being blitzed the 2nd most of any QB

Tied for 1st on the least amount of time on blitzes, from snap to pressure/pass

Being 10th in least amount of separation by receivers at the point of the catch

Being 4th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per attempt

Being 6th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per completion

 

No other QB in the NFL comes close to ranking that low across all those categories. Just in the percentage of dropped passes, spikes, throw aways, and tipped/batted passes alone - at least 5% more of Allen's passes are dropped, spiked, thrown away, or tipped/batted than any other playoff QB, other than Brady. All the other QBs are between 8% and 10%.

 

Josh Allen                   15%
Tom Brady                   13%
Aaron Rodgers           10%
Kirk Cousins               10%
Patrick Mahomes      10%
Lamar Jackson          10%
Jimmy Garoppolo      9%
Russell Wilson            9%
Carson Wentz             9%
Deshaun Watson        9%
Ryan Tannehill            9%
Drew Brees                  8%

 

You could also see the improvement in his decision making, short to intermediate accuracy, moving through his progressions, etc.

 

He has a long way to go; however, he has improved a lot to this point. 

[MJS]

I think he did improve, but I still think he was good last year. There seems to be a narrative that Allen was bad last year and good this year. But I don't see that. He had some good games last year where he showed franchise QB characteristics. That Vikings game, the Dolphins game, etc.

 

I think he got more consistent this year. He also had a lot better of an oline and better WR's. He had another year in the offensive system.

 

I think he's the same guy plus some development. Not sure what percentage difference that is. Maybe 10-15%? If 100% is elite top 5 QB, he'd be a 50% last year and maybe a 65% this year. A couple more years of such improvement bodes well for the Bills.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

A lot. ?

They said there'd be no math!! 

LOL 

what she said

 

Enough to know he can improve

Not enough to remove my doubt that he has to prove himself still in 2020. 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Correct answer is 38.7%, the amount his fantasy production increased because after all that is what matters to many.

 

Seriously though there are a lot of reasons to like your estimate of 30-40%. Even his QB Rating was up almost 30%. Although LOL his ESPN QBR dropped! great ***** stat

 

#Whatdrought "but it feels to me like those ready to quit on him are ignoring the jump he took this year"

 

The % breakdown of how most 2BD Fans assess JA

 

90% are reasonable, can see the big improvements, love the kid and his talent, realize he is a winner, he is Buffalo and committed, has some things to improve on and has shown the knack for just that, realize he is a young, inexpensive, at worst middle of the pack QB, with plenty of room for growth if given more time and better help. Realistic that he has less than 30 starts in the NFL and didn't come from a Power 5 conference......

 

9% go on other teams fan sites, with fans just like themselves, who don't know a football from an avocado. But, they know one thing really well, QB Play aHHHHHH. I mean if you don't have Parick Mahomes why bother? They then "get liquored up" and go on to 2 Bills Drive after a tough loss and blame the QB for everything. Ah Yes! from the defensive not stopping the other team to poor playcalling, time management and personnel usage and lack of execution by the offensive line, to a receiver dropping the ball because it required knee bend and full extension.

 

1% all of the above and didn't like want him to start with, will never give it up even after a SB Win, don't know ***** about it and think they really do, come on 2BD daily in an attempt to aggravate the other 90% who are rational, lucid folks.

 

So for you 90% ignore the trolls, pity others, and realize the Bills have a bright future if they keep trying to improve. That's all!

 

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Freddie's Dead]

Not enough.  He lost his mind on Saturday.  I've been 100% JA since the Superman TD in Minnesota.  After seeing that lateral, I'm 50%.  No amount of improvement this year can overcome that moment for me.  Maybe I'll feel better about it the further away I get, but 48 hours later, I'm still shocked that he did that.

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

I have seen enough with the eye test and extremely excited for next year. But got this from Buffalo Bills.com

 

6 percent jump in completion percentage

50 percent jump in td passes

38 percent jump in total tds

33 percent drop in ints

passer rating increased by almost 20 points (67.9 to 85.3)

last 11 weeks of nfl season, 3rd best td to int ratio 15:2

 

The best thing about Josh is that he is taking this loss to heart and will be working extremely hard in the offseason to work on his fundamentals. 

 

[Captain Murica]

6%

[whatdrought]

14 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

 

Enough to know he can improve

Not enough to remove my doubt that he has to prove himself still in 2020. 

 

 

This is it right here. 

 

5 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Not enough.  He lost his mind on Saturday.  I've been 100% JA since the Superman TD in Minnesota.  After seeing that lateral, I'm 50%.  No amount of improvement this year can overcome that moment for me.  Maybe I'll feel better about it the further away I get, but 48 hours later, I'm still shocked that he did that.

 

 

This seems like an overreaction. Let me re-work the scenario for you. Allen laterals to Knox, who catches it in stride, makes the defender (whose busy wrapping Josh) miss, and rumbles down the sideline for 22 yards. We kick the game tying fg and go to overtime. All the sudden that play is held up with his 4th and 1 play from Dallas as an example of Josh's never say die, winner mentality. Doesn't make it a smart decision, but I guarantee people aren't using it as an example of him losing his mind. Besides, one play where the game was overwhelming him (that is definitely true, no argument there) is not a defining moment. To ignore his consistent growth this year in lieu of that is a mistake, I think.

Edited January 6, 2020 by whatdrought

[mjt328]

He improved his completion percentage from around 52% to about 58%.  About six percentage points.

Ultimately, we want him to settle between 60-65% as his career goes along.  The closer he can get to 65 the better. 

So let's say he needs to go another seven points to reach his goal.  On completion percentage, he's improved about 50% of his goal.

 

In YPA, he took a marginal increase of 6.4 to 6.7.

I would like to see this number over the 7.5 mark for sure.  

So in this area, I think he only jumped about 25-30 percent of where we want him.

 

In scoring, he went from a 10-12 ratio on touchdowns/interceptions (0.83) to 20-9 (2.22).  When you add in rushing touchdowns, he was 29-9 (3.22).

Personally, I would like to see him jump his ratio to 3:1 in just passing.  

So he's probably about 60% of the way in this area.

 

 

Exactly one season ago, Josh Allen's biggest critics were saying he:

a) Could not be an efficient quarterback

b) Made too many mistakes

Twelve months later, his biggest strides were in efficiency (completion percentage) and in avoiding turnovers (TD/INT ratio).  This tells me that Allen and our coaching staff can clearly see where he needs work, have focused on improving in those areas, and have taken some big steps in fixing those problems.  He's a teachable player, who has the drive and work ethic to make himself better.  I fully expect Allen to spend the offseason focusing on his footwork in the pocket, and cleaning up his deep ball accuracy.  And there is a good reason to believe he will get better there too.

 

 

[Big Gun]

5 minutes ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

I have seen enough with the eye test and extremely excited for next year. But got this from Buffalo Bills.com

 

6 percent jump in completion percentage

50 percent jump in td passes

38 percent jump in total tds

33 percent drop in ints

passer rating increased by almost 20 points (67.9 to 85.3)

last 11 weeks of nfl season, 3rd best td to int ratio 15:2

 

The best thing about Josh is that he is taking this loss to heart and will be working extremely hard in the offseason to work on his fundamentals. 

 

Not to pick nits but he went from 10 TD passes to 20, that is 100% increase.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Increased 8 points, 11.5% increase.

[ArtVandalay]

Josh's improvements came as a passer. He was already a great runner and saw no meaningful improvement year over year in his running ability or ball control while running. So his running is a wash so my look is at his improvements as a passer.

 

Passing improvements, 2018 v 2019 = % improvement.

 

Cmp%: 52.8 v 58.8 = +11%

TD%: 3.1 v 4.3 = +39%

INT%: 3.8 v 2.0 = +47%

AY/A: 5.4 v 6.7 = +24%

QB Rate: 67.9 v 85.3 = +26%

 

However if you look at the improvements he went from bad numbers in 2018 (more int than td, 67.9 rate, 52.8 comp) to legit good/solid QB numbers, that's a pretty massive leap.

 

Football reference calculates an "Approximate Value" for each player based on performance. Allen' AV increased from 6 to 11, an 83% increase. I think that sounds accurate considering how large the jump is in the NFL from bad QB to above average QB.

 

Allen is 83% improved.

[Freddie's Dead]

8 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

This seems like an overreaction. Let me re-work the scenario for you. Allen laterals to Knox, who catches it in stride, makes the defender (whose busy wrapping Josh) miss, and rumbles down the sideline for 22 yards. We kick the game tying fg and go to overtime. All the sudden that play is held up with his 4th and 1 play from Dallas as an example of Josh's never say die, winner mentality. Doesn't make it a smart decision, but I guarantee people aren't using it as an example of him losing his mind. Besides, one play where the game was overwhelming him (that is definitely true, no argument there) is not a defining moment. To ignore his consistent growth this year in lieu of that is a mistake, I think.

 

When I saw that lateral, my blood ran cold.  The ball was nowhere near Knox and only a very heads up play by Knox to bat the ball laterally OB saved that play from disaster.  Maybe it is an overreaction, but I can't get that play out my head.  If you're going to lateral there, you need to make 100% sure you're doing it right.  At best, it was a 50/50 ball where the Texans had as good a chance of grabbing it as Knox did.

 

He did grow this year, but in the biggest moment, he melted down.  I'll be more than happy to be wrong on this one.   

[Big Gun]

18 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

LOL 

what she said

 

Enough to know he can improve

Not enough to remove my doubt that he has to prove himself still in 2020. 

 

What does he have to prove, that he's an NFL caliber QB? He is the starter for the foreseeable future, he is the franchise, that's not even debatable. He is one of the better QBs in the league ( only 5 QBs had more TDs ) , there is nothing more to prove, he just needs to keep getting better and hone his craft, IMO the game will slow down even more for him next year.

[ArtVandalay]

19 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

This is it right here. 

 

 

 

This seems like an overreaction. Let me re-work the scenario for you. Allen laterals to Knox, who catches it in stride, makes the defender (whose busy wrapping Josh) miss, and rumbles down the sideline for 22 yards. We kick the game tying fg and go to overtime. All the sudden that play is held up with his 4th and 1 play from Dallas as an example of Josh's never say die, winner mentality. Doesn't make it a smart decision, but I guarantee people aren't using it as an example of him losing his mind. Besides, one play where the game was overwhelming him (that is definitely true, no argument there) is not a defining moment. To ignore his consistent growth this year in lieu of that is a mistake, I think.

Let's rework the " lateral" again... Knox messes up and doesn't get the ball or hit it OB, defender comes over and scoops it up... 2 black jackets run on the field to talk to the ref, it's determined Allen was just giving himself up and tossing it to the ref, dead ball Bills football.

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

18 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Not to pick nits but he went from 10 TD passes to 20, that is 100% increase.

Good catch I just pulled this off a bb.com article. Didn’t even realize. 

[KD in CA]

1 hour ago, DC Tom said:

27.42%.  

Damn, beat me to it.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

Don't have a percentage, but he improved a lot. Sometime earlier in the season I heard a guy, who had interviewed Josh and he said Josh told him last year there were a bunch of plays that Daboll would tell him look at the first option if it's not there then run. He wasn't even trusted to go to his second option. He's come a long, long way since then.

 

Now get rid of Duhball and we'll really see what Josh can do. I know let's line up Lee Smith and Patrick DiMarco as our only 2 wide outs and run them deep in the freakin playoffs. 

[Troll Toll]

75% better

 

I think the biggest thing for him is to continue to develop mentally where he is better with protections, diagnosing the blitz, and making adjustments. He made great strides in those areas this year, but it still remains as his biggest opportunity for growth. I think there are far easier plays to be had if he can make more strides in this area. My fear is that he may focus too much on honing in on his deep ball and cutting the fumbling down. 
 

The biggest thing his critics miss entirely is his vision. He generally seems to be seeing the whole field and understanding what players on defense can make a play on the ball. We haven’t had a QB that could do this for decades. I’m confident that he can make the important remaining improvements he needs to be one of the best QBs in the league.

[BillsfanAZ]

I saw improvement in Allen. I think the Bills have to take a page from the Ravens playbook and surround Allen with playmakers on offense and solidify that RT position.  Of all the QB's to come out of college in his draft class, Allen was the least experienced. Even though we all want to see a top ten QB right now, I think he can get there. Allen wanting to take the team on his shoulders is a double edged sword. When it works, he looks awesome. When it doesnt, he looks horrible. A better surrounding cast will hopefully limit the times he feels he needs to do everything on this own. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Significant enough that I think we can all be encouraged he's likely the long term answer, but not enough to know with absolute certainty.

[HOUSE]

His fumbles bounced further then 2018...

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by HOUSE

[PolishDave]

3

[Bangarang]

3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Significant enough that I think we can all be encouraged he's likely the long term answer, but not enough to know with absolute certainty.

If he can fix the issue with the deep ball and if we can get him more weapons then there is quite a bit to look forward to.

 

Id like to see more efficiency as a passer.