Fun facts about Josh Allen - better than he gets credit for?

[Alphadawg7]

I posted this in the thread about the dumb comments from ESPN.  But thought it should be its own thread as I am not sure how many people actually realize these things.

 

ONLY 5 QBs in the NFL have more TDs than Josh Allen this year:

 

Lamar - 40

Watson - 33

Wilson - 31

Winston - 31

Dak - 29

Allen - 27

• And two of those guys above are the front runners for MVP and every single one of those 5 have a substantially better group of weapons around the QB.  
• Furthermore, since week 5 (after the week 4 NE game), ONLY Lamar has more combined TD's than Josh...where Josh has 21 TDS to only 4 turnovers.

 

Bonus facts:  

• Josh holds the longest streak in the NFL this year of multi TD games.  
• He has the most 4th quarter comebacks in the NFL since entering the league despite missing parts or all of 6 games.  
• He is also the highest rated passer in the NFL on 3rd and long 
• He is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter
• He is a big reason why Buffalo is one of the top red zone offenses in the NFL
• His top 3 WRs average 5'10" and 185 pounds
• He is 13-6 since coming back from injury last year in games he started and finished (knocked out of first NE game this year)
  • Bonus fact:  We lost 3 of those games literally because of ST (Jets last year, Pats and Cle this year) and one due to multiple dropped passes (Zay and Clay in first Mia game last year during final drive).  

 

Final fun fact:  Bills are second in the NFL in dropped passes.
 

He is no where near a final product yet and has a lot to keep working on, especially the deep accuracy.  But I think he is definitely being under appreciated by a lot of people still around here for what he has done so far, and obviously by a lot of media outlets.  Best part is that we have $90M in cap room and extra draft assets going into an offseason where Josh would have already shown a lot of growth, and gained valuable playoff experience.  For anyone to be negative or down on him right now is crazy to me.  None of us know what the finished product will look like with Josh, but there is substantially more to be optimistic about than pessimistic.  

Edited December 19, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I posted this in the thread about the dumb comments from ESPN.  But thought it should be its own thread as I am not sure how many people actually realize these things.

 

ONLY 5 QBs in the NFL have more TDs than Josh Allen this year:

 

Lamar - 40

Watson - 33

Wilson - 31

Winston - 31

Dak - 29

Allen - 27

• And two of those guys above are the front runners for MVP and every single one of those 5 have a substantially better group of weapons around the QB.  
• Furthermore, since week 5 (after the week 4 NE game), ONLY Lamar has more combined TD's than Josh...where Josh has 21 TDS to only 4 turnovers.

 

Bonus facts:  

• Josh holds the longest streak in the NFL this year of multi TD games.  
• He has the most 4th quarter comebacks in the NFL since entering the league despite missing parts or all of 6 games.  
• He is also the highest rated passer in the NFL on 3rd and long 
• He is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter
• He is a big reason why Buffalo is one of the top red zone offenses in the NFL
• His top 3 WRs average 5'10"d
• He is 13-7 since coming back from injury last year
  • Bonus fact:  We lost 3 of those games literally because of ST (Jets last year, Pats and Cle this year) and one due to multiple dropped passes (Zay and Clay in first Mia game last year during final drive).  

 

Final fun fact:  Bills are second in the NFL in dropped passes.
 

He is no where near a final product yet and has a lot to keep working on, especially the deep accuracy.  But I think he is definitely being under appreciated by a lot of people still around here for what he has done so far, and obviously by a lot of media outlets.  Best part is that we have $90M in cap room and extra draft assets going into an offseason where Josh would have already shown a lot of growth, and gained valuable playoff experience.  For anyone to be negative or down on him right now is crazy to me.  None of us know what the finished product will look like with Josh, but there is substantially more to be optimistic about than pessimistic.  

Ravens had that issue with drops either last year or the year before and dumped all their receivers.  Brown was in that group, but hasn’t really been the problem here 

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I posted this in the thread about the dumb comments from ESPN.  But thought it should be its own thread as I am not sure how many people actually realize these things.

 

ONLY 5 QBs in the NFL have more TDs than Josh Allen this year:

 

Lamar - 40

Watson - 33

Wilson - 31

Winston - 31

Dak - 29

Allen - 27

• And two of those guys above are the front runners for MVP and every single one of those 5 have a substantially better group of weapons around the QB.  
• Furthermore, since week 5 (after the week 4 NE game), ONLY Lamar has more combined TD's than Josh...where Josh has 21 TDS to only 4 turnovers.

 

Bonus facts:  

• Josh holds the longest streak in the NFL this year of multi TD games.  
• He has the most 4th quarter comebacks in the NFL since entering the league despite missing parts or all of 6 games.  
• He is also the highest rated passer in the NFL on 3rd and long 
• He is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter
• He is a big reason why Buffalo is one of the top red zone offenses in the NFL
• His top 3 WRs average 5'10"d
• He is 13-7 since coming back from injury last year
  • Bonus fact:  We lost 3 of those games literally because of ST (Jets last year, Pats and Cle this year) and one due to multiple dropped passes (Zay and Clay in first Mia game last year during final drive).  

 

Final fun fact:  Bills are second in the NFL in dropped passes.
 

He is no where near a final product yet and has a lot to keep working on, especially the deep accuracy.  But I think he is definitely being under appreciated by a lot of people still around here for what he has done so far, and obviously by a lot of media outlets.  Best part is that we have $90M in cap room and extra draft assets going into an offseason where Josh would have already shown a lot of growth, and gained valuable playoff experience.  For anyone to be negative or down on him right now is crazy to me.  None of us know what the finished product will look like with Josh, but there is substantially more to be optimistic about than pessimistic.  

Thanks for this... some interesting pieces. Stats don’t tell the whole story BUT it is nice to see the positive side of Josh’s stats. I’m tired of seeing completion% with no context with people screaming he’s no good. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I posted this in the thread about the dumb comments from ESPN.  But thought it should be its own thread as I am not sure how many people actually realize these things.

 

ONLY 5 QBs in the NFL have more TDs than Josh Allen this year:

 

Lamar - 40

Watson - 33

Wilson - 31

Winston - 31

Dak - 29

Allen - 27

• And two of those guys above are the front runners for MVP and every single one of those 5 have a substantially better group of weapons around the QB.  
• Furthermore, since week 5 (after the week 4 NE game), ONLY Lamar has more combined TD's than Josh...where Josh has 21 TDS to only 4 turnovers.

 

Bonus facts:  

• Josh holds the longest streak in the NFL this year of multi TD games.  
• He has the most 4th quarter comebacks in the NFL since entering the league despite missing parts or all of 6 games.  
• He is also the highest rated passer in the NFL on 3rd and long 
• He is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter
• He is a big reason why Buffalo is one of the top red zone offenses in the NFL
• His top 3 WRs average 5'10"d
• He is 13-7 since coming back from injury last year, 13-6 in games he's started and finished.
  • Bonus fact:  We lost 3 of those games literally because of ST (Jets last year, Pats and Cle this year) and one due to multiple dropped passes (Zay and Clay in first Mia game last year during final drive).  

 

Final fun fact:  Bills are second in the NFL in dropped passes.
 

He is no where near a final product yet and has a lot to keep working on, especially the deep accuracy.  But I think he is definitely being under appreciated by a lot of people still around here for what he has done so far, and obviously by a lot of media outlets.  Best part is that we have $90M in cap room and extra draft assets going into an offseason where Josh would have already shown a lot of growth, and gained valuable playoff experience.  For anyone to be negative or down on him right now is crazy to me.  None of us know what the finished product will look like with Josh, but there is substantially more to be optimistic about than pessimistic.  

 

 

Alpha this is great, but a minor change, if I may.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Alpha this is great, but a minor change, if I may.

 

Good point...he got knocked out the NE game where we had some momentum and he was driving.  I will edit.  

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Good point...he got knocked out the NE game where we had some momentum and he was driving.  I will edit.  

 

 

Alpha...what if he finished the Houston game last year and the Pats game this year?

 

In a weird way I am glad he didn't finish against the Texans.  If he wins that game, No Oliver at #9 this year.

 

...and sure, he was taking his lumps against the Pats and I love me some Barkley...but given his 4th quarter comeback record i would love to have seen him finish and win that first game.

 

Just think...we would be playing to clinch the division this weekend with an eye towards clinching a first round bye thereafter.

Edited December 19, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[StHustle]

I wouldn't consider the dropped passes a "fun fact" but I see what you mean.

 

I am very high on Josh. I just get frustrated because it seems like when he starts a game off bad, he keeps it going until the 4th quarter, when, against good teams it's already too late. 

 

I'm excited to see how he finishes out this season and leaps into next year.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Alpha...what if he finished the Houston game last year and the Pats game this year?

 

I a weird way I am glad he didn't finish against the Texans.  If he wins that game, No Oliver at #9 this year.

 

...and sure, he was taking his lumps against the Pats and I love me some Barkley...but given his 4th quarter comeback record i would love to have seen him finish and win that first game.

 

Just think...we would be playing to clinch the division this weekend with an eye towards clinching a first round bye thereafter.

I have argued that the biggest impact Charles clay ever had on our team was dropping that game winner in Miami last year..... thanks Charlie.

[ngbills]

Yes many positives. Cant ignore how the defense has impacted all of that as well. I am not a fan of giving QB's credit for every rushing TD as a lot of that is playing calling or personnel related thus QB should not get full credit.

 

Allen has been a good game manager since some rocky high turnover games. We are winning with him not because of him at this point given our defense. 

 

I am tired of the agendas to either say how great he is or how terrible he is. Why is so hard to accept he is really somewhere in  the middle right now? He has lots of development ahead of him still and that is ok. Luckily we have a great defense and can win with the current JA. As history shows defenses are hard to sustain and we will need more of JA in the future. 

[Bleedbuffaloblue]

Good info thanks. Totally agree on how so many in the media are still down on Josh. They should read your post and get educated I think!

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Alpha...what if he finished the Houston game last year and the Pats game this year?

 

In a weird way I am glad he didn't finish against the Texans.  If he wins that game, No Oliver at #9 this year.

 

...and sure, he was taking his lumps against the Pats and I love me some Barkley...but given his 4th quarter comeback record i would love to have seen him finish and win that first game.

 

Just think...we would be playing to clinch the division this weekend with an eye towards clinching a first round bye thereafter.

 

Well the Houston game last year was outside the range of games I listed in terms of his record as I went back to when he returned from injury that he sustained in that Houston game.  The reason, is that was when Josh really started to ascend and seemed to be a different and better QB than prior to the injury where he mostly was a very raw product.  

 

I actually fully believe we win the first NE game this year if Allen doesnt get knocked out the game.  Lets not forget, Barkley went on to throw a pick in the end zone on that drive.  We had momentum and Josh was starting to come on like he does before he got hurt.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Where is jrober to tell us he is a bottom tier QB and back it with his QBR.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Yes many positives. Cant ignore how the defense has impacted all of that as well. I am not a fan of giving QB's credit for every rushing TD as a lot of that is playing calling or personnel related thus QB should not get full credit.

 

Allen has been a good game manager since some rocky high turnover games. We are winning with him not because of him at this point given our defense. 

 

I am tired of the agendas to either say how great he is or how terrible he is. Why is so hard to accept he is really somewhere in  the middle right now? He has lots of development ahead of him still and that is ok. Luckily we have a great defense and can win with the current JA. As history shows defenses are hard to sustain and we will need more of JA in the future. 

 

Yeah of course, and Bills success is by no means all because of Josh.  But most of what I said is about Josh's individual performance.  

 

And this is football, no one wins because of just one player (even though fans and media like assign credit or blame to individuals a lot).  But I do believe Allen still has had a big hand in a lot of our wins, its not just the stout defense.  End of the day, the defense has to do their job...and the offense has to do their part to put up more points than the other team.  And Allen and the offense, which has less talent overall on it than our D, have done their part too most weeks.

[1ManRaid]

For a second year "raw" QB, I'm happy with a 2-1 TD-INT ratio while being top 10 in the league (including RBs) in rushing TDs.  He'll keep getting better.  Similar progression next year will have him as a lock for the Pro Bowl and us as a Super Bowl contender. 

[Big Turk]

27 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Ravens had that issue with drops either last year or the year before and dumped all their receivers.  Brown was in that group, but hasn’t really been the problem here 

 

Brown was killing it before Flacco got hurt...once Jackson came in he became a non-factor, mainly because Jackson was a running back playing some quarterback last year. Check out his numbers before and after Flacco.

Edited December 19, 2019 by matter2003

[Hapless Bills Fan]

34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Final fun fact:  Bills are second in the NFL in dropped passes.

 

I think that's by # of passes, but we don't pass as much.

 

Josh is first for drop % and it's not close (7.5%, second is Kyle Allen at 6.2% then a 5-way tie for 3rd at 6.0%)

[1ManRaid]

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Brown was killing it before Flacco got hurt...once Jackson came in he became a non-factor, mainly because Jackson was a running back playing some quarterback last year. Check out his numbers before and after Flacco.

That's why I was so excited about signing him to a multi-year deal.  Figured Brown would help Josh develop this year, and dominate with him next year.

[PatsFanNH]

Amazing stat line. My question is how has he looked against top D's in the NFL?  For example I know Lamar has thrown 66% of his TD passes  and only games over 200 yards passing against Miami,Cincy (2X), Cleveland, KC (BEFORE THE D STARTED PLAYING BETTER), and Texans... 2 in losing efforts... the other games it was 150 or less with 1 TD or less throwing  BUT his accuracy made them tough to beat as well as his feet. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

My gut feeling is that a 23 year old QB that plays well relative to his peers in Redzone, 4th quarter and 3rd and long must have some special qualities.   Winning while learning is not easy and you have to wonder what it will look like once he has it figured out.

[Mr. WEO]

In the last 4 games, he has had a total of 7 TDs: 5 passing, 2 rushing and the Bills are scoring 16 ppg.  All against top 10 Defenses.

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Amazing stat line. My question is how has he looked against top D's in the NFL?  For example I know Lamar has thrown 66% of his TD passes  and only games over 200 yards passing against Miami,Cincy (2X), Cleveland, KC (BEFORE THE D STARTED PLAYING BETTER), and Texans... 2 in losing efforts... the other games it was 150 or less with 1 TD or less throwing  BUT his accuracy made them tough to beat as well as his feet. 

 

Probably not great.  I know he has at least 6 INT's---4 from the Pats in the first meeting and 1 each from the Broncos and Ravens.  

 

Also had very poor completion percentage games against the Steelers, Patriots and Ravens.  But I don't think Allen's value is going to be in 65%+ completion percentage seasons.  His value is making big plays at big moments which is one of the hardest traits to find in a QB.  Most players wilt in those moments (see Cousins, Kirk), but Allen shines.

Edited December 19, 2019 by matter2003

[DCOrange]

12 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Brown was killing it before Flacco got hurt...once Jackson came in he became a non-factor, mainly because Jackson was a running back playing some quarterback last year. Check out his numbers before and after Flacco.

Brown is playing better this year than ever before, but regarding last year, it was probably more of just a flukey start than it was the Flacco-Lamar switch. In Flacco's final 4 starts for the Ravens, Brown went:

 

58 yards on 14 targets (only caught 4)

28 yards on 3 targets

134 yards on 7 targets (caught all 7)

28 yards on 7 targets

 

Up until this season, Brown was basically always a big play threat that would either give you a home run ball or nothing. Last season was more of the same; it just so happens that he hit a couple home runs the first couple weeks.

 

He and Lamar clearly never got on the same page the way Lamar has with his receivers/tight ends this year, but point being, Brown's struggles started before that change ever took place.

[whatdrought]

46 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Ravens had that issue with drops either last year or the year before and dumped all their receivers.  Brown was in that group, but hasn’t really been the problem here 

 

He had a real ugly one Sunday night, but that's the only one that comes to mind. Beasley has had a couple of really annoying ones the past couple weeks, and Knox is kinda habitual. 

[34-78-83]

17 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Probably not great.  I know he has at least 6 INT's---4 from the Pats in the first meeting and 1 each from the Broncos and Ravens.  

 

Also had very poor completion percentage games against the Steelers, Patriots and Ravens.  But I don't think Allen's value is going to be in 65%+ completion percentage seasons.  His value is making big plays at big moments which is one of the hardest traits to find in a QB.  Most players wilt in those moments (see Cousins, Kirk), but Allen shines.

I don't think Josh ever thew 4 picks in a game did he?

[whatdrought]

19 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Probably not great.  I know he has at least 6 INT's---4 from the Pats in the first meeting and 1 each from the Broncos and Ravens.  

 

Also had very poor completion percentage games against the Steelers, Patriots and Ravens.  But I don't think Allen's value is going to be in 65%+ completion percentage seasons.  His value is making big plays at big moments which is one of the hardest traits to find in a QB.  Most players wilt in those moments (see Cousins, Kirk), but Allen shines.

 

He threw three against the Patriots, 1 against the Broncos on what looked like a miscommunication, and one against the Steelers that was at least partially the fault of the receiver. He didn't throw any against the Ravens, though he fumbled but that was really not at all his fault due to a horrendous blocking scheme and block.

 

He actually played quite well against the Steelers, all things considered. It was intentionally a very conservative game plan and he did the job that he needed to do when it counted the most. 

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think that's by # of passes, but we don't pass as much.

 

Josh is first for drop % and it's not close (7.5%, second is Kyle Allen at 6.2% then a 5-way tie for 3rd at 6.0%)

 

We are second in number of passes actually dropped, at least according to the stat they put up during the game.  Said we had 20 and most was 21.  

[ngbills]

Drops are impacted by QB accuracy. A QB with consistent ball placement will have less drops. I also think when you throw darts like JA does he will always have a slightly higher drop rate. 

[BringBackFergy]

Great thread. Thanks

[Mike in Horseheads]

Great stuff Alpha !

...Interesting that ESPN was crying to day about poor Dak not getting into the ProBowl. One thing to back that up was he had 25 dropped pass's. Nothing about the lousy record, come back wins etc etc. Ya know stuff that wins games

[JaBu]

Interesting stats.

 

I thought this article was enlightening on how it is expected the Pats will play Allen.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2019/12/19/josh-allen-bills-patriots-film-review-analysis/H2f33GXenFNS2DnizWUnDM/story.html?p1=Article_Recirc_InThisSection

 

 

[Jerome007]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

For anyone to be negative or down on him right now is crazy to me.  None of us know what the finished product will look like with Josh, but there is substantially more to be optimistic about than pessimistic.  

All your post is good, but this is for the impatient types. I couldn't agree more.

 

We don't know how it will all pan out, but so far it's easy to feel damn good about Josh as our QB. And not only the football part, but the intangibles, leadership, character, etc. Since day 1, my fear is not that he's a bust, but that he is just good or very good, instead of great. Again, who knows what will happen but so far all indications point in the right direction.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Good point...he got knocked out the NE game where we had some momentum and he was driving.  I will edit.  

 

That just might have been one more W, TD and 4th QTR comeback, if not for the cheap shot by the Cheaters. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

Drops are impacted by QB accuracy. A QB with consistent ball placement will have less drops. I also think when you throw darts like JA does he will always have a slightly higher drop rate. 

 

Ngbills, drops are strictly scored as "a ball that could be caught by ordinary effort".  Accuracy should impact the number of balls that meet that criteria to be drops - but drops are by definition supposed to be balls with good placement that an NFL WR should be able to catch routinely.

 

Observationally, as has been mentioned elsewhere, the drops from young guys like Knox aren't on the high degree of difficulty stuff - they're on the routine "gimme" balls and seem to be associated with looking beyond the catch.

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

We are second in number of passes actually dropped, at least according to the stat they put up during the game.  Said we had 20 and most was 21.  

 

Right ho, but the point is that we throw fewer times.  Finsies passed ~50x more for that 1 more drip

Pats***** passed ~70x more for same number. 

So as percentage, higher

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...my Cliff Notes Two Cents from Steve Young (yup, HIM)......his quote was, "more collegiate QB's fail versus succeed at the NFL level due to the sped and complexity of the game"......"early on" successes do happen no doubt.......but how they individually deal with it is another story.......RG II 1/8 lost his focus with ME pressers for the W and faulting teammates for the L....Kaep became enthralled with tats 'n poses, becoming his "this is easy" major focus (getting paid for football?)....opposing DC's figured them both out...Cam the Scam is now into his "Prince Pressers"...SMH.......Russell Wilson honed his craft, never lost focus and has developed into a real winner....will be interesting to see what direction Lamar takes with the "fork in the road" eventually looming....Allen just keeps working his arse off to get better with Professor Palmer and Dorsey.....and it's sure as hell not for him but for his TEAM.....he knows his strengths and his weaknesses.....and I think his mindset to to strengthen his weaknesses while strengthening his strengths to become the franchise QB......it will take time...but denying his ethic, intent and potential ability?...um ok......

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That just might have been one more W, TD and 4th QTR comeback, if not for the cheap shot by the Cheaters. 

 

Which was Just Football and for which neither Josh Allen nor any member of the Bills cherish any Ill Feelings because he's a pro and they are pros and that's what pros do.

 

And I'm fine with that provided we KICK THEIR SORRY BUTTS BACK TO THE 1770s

 

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

1 hour ago, BringBackFergy said:

Great thread. Thanks

This.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Which was Just Football and for which neither Josh Allen nor any member of the Bills cherish any Ill Feelings because he's a pro and they are pros and that's what pros do.

 

And I'm fine with that provided we KICK THEIR SORRY BUTTS BACK TO THE 1770s

 

 

 

...I was there...what did you want to know???.............

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...I was there...what did you want to know???.............

 

Whether the "Codpiece" involved actual fish?  TIA!

[TheBrownBear]

Thank you for compiling this list.  Highlights just how idiotic those ESPN talking heads are (and many other members of the media). 

[Gugny]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I posted this in the thread about the dumb comments from ESPN.  But thought it should be its own thread as I am not sure how many people actually realize these things.

  

 

Awesome stuff, Alpha.  I'm glad you started a new thread.  These are great stats and it's nice to see them all together in this format.  Thanks, man!!!