Fun facts about Josh Allen - better than he gets credit for?

[eball]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

In the last 4 games, he has had a total of 7 TDs: 5 passing, 2 rushing and the Bills are scoring 16 ppg.  All against top 10 Defenses.

 

Please show your work.

 

Bills 20, Denver 3

Bills 26, Dallas 15

Bills 17, Ravens 24

Bills 17, Steelers 10

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Probably not great.  I know he has at least 6 INT's---4 from the Pats in the first meeting and 1 each from the Broncos and Ravens.  

 

Josh did not have 4 INT from the Pats.  The Bills had 4; Josh had 3, and Barkley had 1.

Josh did not throw a pick against the Ravens.

 

 

[TroutDog]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

He is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter

Per OBL, he is the highest rated passer in the 4th quarter with a rating of 109 if I’m not mistaken. 
 

This is a great list you’ve put together and, for me, you’re preaching to the choir. The kid has every intangible you would want. Soon enough he’ll have it figured out and THEN...watch out NFL!

 

Get used to many, many Buffalo Bills prime time games!

 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this regime is playing the long game. If you can’t see that, then learn patience! ? 

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, ngbills said:

Yes many positives. Cant ignore how the defense has impacted all of that as well. I am not a fan of giving QB's credit for every rushing TD as a lot of that is playing calling or personnel related thus QB should not get full credit.

 

Allen has been a good game manager since some rocky high turnover games. We are winning with him not because of him at this point given our defense. 

 

I am tired of the agendas to either say how great he is or how terrible he is. Why is so hard to accept he is really somewhere in  the middle right now? He has lots of development ahead of him still and that is ok. Luckily we have a great defense and can win with the current JA. As history shows defenses are hard to sustain and we will need more of JA in the future. 

Agreed. In the past when we had Franchise QBs in Losman, E.J etc, they failed to be that "game manager" to support a good/great defense.  Josh knows exactly how to do that. Once the confidence on him keeps increasing the  lower % plays will come out of the bag; the accuracy will increase etc.  Right now thee only thing asked of Josh is to win the game by not committing turnovers

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

Please show your work.

 

Bills 20, Denver 3

Bills 26, Dallas 15

Bills 17, Ravens 24

Bills 17, Steelers 10

 

 

 

 

Whoops!  

 

20 ppg.  16 is completions per game

 

So...5 passing  TDs  vs  2 ints

 

2 rushing TDs, 3 fumbles

 

56.6% completions.

 

4 games: 7 TDs

Edited December 20, 2019 by Mr. WEO

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I posted this in the thread about the dumb comments from ESPN.  But thought it should be its own thread as I am not sure how many people actually realize these things.

 

ONLY 5 QBs in the NFL have more TDs than Josh Allen this year:

 

Lamar - 40

Watson - 33

Wilson - 31

Winston - 31

Dak - 29

Allen - 27

• And two of those guys above are the front runners for MVP and every single one of those 5 have a substantially better group of weapons around the QB.  
• Furthermore, since week 5 (after the week 4 NE game), ONLY Lamar has more combined TD's than Josh...where Josh has 21 TDS to only 4 turnovers.

 

Bonus facts:  

• Josh holds the longest streak in the NFL this year of multi TD games.  
• He has the most 4th quarter comebacks in the NFL since entering the league despite missing parts or all of 6 games.  
• He is also the highest rated passer in the NFL on 3rd and long 
• He is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter
• He is a big reason why Buffalo is one of the top red zone offenses in the NFL
• His top 3 WRs average 5'10" and 185 pounds
• He is 13-6 since coming back from injury last year in games he started and finished (knocked out of first NE game this year)
  • Bonus fact:  We lost 3 of those games literally because of ST (Jets last year, Pats and Cle this year) and one due to multiple dropped passes (Zay and Clay in first Mia game last year during final drive).  

 

Final fun fact:  Bills are second in the NFL in dropped passes.
 

He is no where near a final product yet and has a lot to keep working on, especially the deep accuracy.  But I think he is definitely being under appreciated by a lot of people still around here for what he has done so far, and obviously by a lot of media outlets.  Best part is that we have $90M in cap room and extra draft assets going into an offseason where Josh would have already shown a lot of growth, and gained valuable playoff experience.  For anyone to be negative or down on him right now is crazy to me.  None of us know what the finished product will look like with Josh, but there is substantially more to be optimistic about than pessimistic.  

 

Awesome post.  I do not get the hate on this kid.  No, he is not Tom Brady in year 1.5, but he has a ton of positive improvements and things he has been good at most of the year.  To me, the future looks bright.

 

That's my QB!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, jabu said:

Interesting stats.

 

I thought this article was enlightening on how it is expected the Pats will play Allen.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2019/12/19/josh-allen-bills-patriots-film-review-analysis/H2f33GXenFNS2DnizWUnDM/story.html?p1=Article_Recirc_InThisSection

 

Since it appears to be behind a paywall, in keeping with "best practice" here would you care to provide a synopsis and a few bullet points, along with a bit of the writer's background so we can judge his cred?

 

I found this, which isn't too promising, but I don't want to be hasty:

 

 

 

 

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well the Houston game last year was outside the range of games I listed in terms of his record as I went back to when he returned from injury that he sustained in that Houston game.  The reason, is that was when Josh really started to ascend and seemed to be a different and better QB than prior to the injury where he mostly was a very raw product.  

 

I actually fully believe we win the first NE game this year if Allen doesnt get knocked out the game.  Lets not forget, Barkley went on to throw a pick in the end zone on that drive.  We had momentum and Josh was starting to come on like he does before he got hurt.  

 

Fun fact on our first NE game this year:  It was week 4 and Josh Allen was the first QB (Bills first team) to score an offensive TD against the Pats.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Since it appears to be behind a paywall, in keeping with "best practice" here would you care to provide a synopsis and a few bullet points, along with a bit of the writer's background so we can judge his cred?

 

I found this, which isn't too promising, but I don't want to be hasty:

 

 

 

 

Paywall? I was able to read it! Not a great article, just the usual Josh Allen is wildly inaccurate, still the same guy he was in week 4 and Pats don't need to change anything, hes a good athlete and runner but not fast like Watson and Jackson. Thinks Pats won't have much problem because he's a turnover machine.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

6 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

He had a real ugly one Sunday night, but that's the only one that comes to mind. 

Was that the one that he alligator armed? I think it was a deep in on 3rd and 15 that would have gone for like 25 yards. That could have been Allen’s best throw of the night too. 

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, ngbills said:

Drops are impacted by QB accuracy. A QB with consistent ball placement will have less drops. I also think when you throw darts like JA does he will always have a slightly higher drop rate. 

Drops that statistics record are not impacted by QB accuracy.  Statistics only record drops as drops if it is deemed to be a good pass to begin with.  For instance, Beasley's "drop" would not be recorded because it was not a ordinary effort.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Scott7975

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Since it appears to be behind a paywall, in keeping with "best practice" here would you care to provide a synopsis and a few bullet points, along with a bit of the writer's background so we can judge his cred?

 

I found this, which isn't too promising, but I don't want to be hasty:

 

 

 

 

 

This from Cover1 might possibly be a good assessment, featuring Evan Lazar who is kind of a Pats version of Erik Turner (as far as I can tell).

https://www.cover1.net/c1-buf-patriots-bills-division-champion-preview-with-evan-lazar-pats-all-22/

 

They actually start to get into discussion of the actual play around 9 minutes, starting with Pats offense vs Bills defense

Get into discussion of the Bills offense vs Pats defense about 24 minutes

 

This is good, meaty Xs and Os stuff with details about schemes both teams like to play and what's been working against the Patriots and so forth.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Paywall? I was able to read it! Not a great article, just the usual Josh Allen is wildly inaccurate, still the same guy he was in week 4 and Pats don't need to change anything, hes a good athlete and runner but not fast like Watson and Jackson. Thinks Pats won't have much problem because he's a turnover machine.

 

It probably depends upon how many Boston Globe articles one has read in a given period of time.  I could probably read it if I use a different IP address but absent info on why I should expect straight gouge from this guy, I'm not inspired to try.

Here's the thing.  When asked how much Josh Allen has improved since Game 4, Mitch Morse (who is Mr Political Correct) rapped out "Oh, a Ton!" before rolling back into "the whole team has improved...we all have to be at the top of our game".  Sean McDermott, in a recent interview, said

McDermott on the play of Josh Allen since Week 4 against the Patriots:

“You just watch him on tape, you watch him week-in and week-out and there’s just drastic improvement, development. In a lot of ways, some of the details, some of the big boulders, if you will as well, and he continues to get more and more comfortable in our system and also understanding how he’s being defended, which is half of the battle. I’ve been extremely pleased with Josh, and also looking forward to the future, and I’m sure many Bills fans are as well with guys like Josh and Tremaine Edmunds.”

Again, he sounds sincere and McDermott is not the kind of guy to toss around a phrase like "extremely pleased" or "drastic improvement"

 

So either both these guys (the trench warrior and our praise-wary coach) are blowing smoke, or Josh Allen has shown progress this season, possibly progress that shows up more in how he operates and hasn't made its way into the stat sheet as much yet. 

 

 

 

[GregPersons]

The numbers are nice empirical data to support what, I think, we already know — Allen has progressed, and his ceiling remains as high as ever.

 

I think you can trust the "eye test" most of the time, especially with the really visible positions like QB... Allen is passing the eye test. You can see the improved confidence and decision-making. 

[billsfan1959]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

ONLY 5 QBs in the NFL have more TDs than Josh Allen this year:

 

Lamar - 40

Watson - 33

Wilson - 31

Winston - 31

Dak - 29

Allen - 27

• And two of those guys above are the front runners for MVP and every single one of those 5 have a substantially better group of weapons around the QB.  
• Furthermore, since week 5 (after the week 4 NE game), ONLY Lamar has more combined TD's than Josh...where Josh has 21 TDS to only 4 turnovers.

 

Bonus facts:  

• Josh holds the longest streak in the NFL this year of multi TD games.  
• He has the most 4th quarter comebacks in the NFL since entering the league despite missing parts or all of 6 games.  
• He is also the highest rated passer in the NFL on 3rd and long 
• He is one of the highest rated passers in the 4th quarter
• He is a big reason why Buffalo is one of the top red zone offenses in the NFL
• His top 3 WRs average 5'10" and 185 pounds
• He is 13-6 since coming back from injury last year in games he started and finished (knocked out of first NE game this year)
  • Bonus fact:  We lost 3 of those games literally because of ST (Jets last year, Pats and Cle this year) and one due to multiple dropped passes (Zay and Clay in first Mia game last year during final drive).  

 

Good stuff, Alpha. Just to add a little more:

 

# 2 passer rating in the 4th qtr
# 3 TD passes in 4th qtr
#11 TD passes in 2nd half
# 2 completion % on passes inside th opponents 10 yard line
# 2 passer rating inside opponents 10 yard line
# 15 passer rating inside opponents 20 yard line
# 3 % of 1st downs on passing attempts - 3rd and short
# 2 % of 1st downs on passing attempts - 3rd and long
# 15 % of 1st downs overall on passing attempts - 3rd down
# 14 passer rating in 3 WR sets
# 14 20+ yard completions
# 13 40+ yard completions

[colin]

Im a huge allen supporter.

 

What this bevy of stats, and our overall not good O and passing game (in terms of yards as well as points), along w the fact that we are top 10 (and teams like 5 through 10 are all neck and neck) in "explosive plays" tells me is there is something fundamentally wrong w our bread and butter offensive execution.

 

some of it is for sure Josh, throwing the odd just terrible ball, or eating a sack when he shouldn't, or leaving the pocket early or what have you.  a chunk of it is on the OL for blowing assignments, straight missing blocks, or (bothers me the MOST) penalties.  we also have the issue of dropped passes, and we really have only one RB on the roster who can get anything done (gore just hit the wall early).

 

I've got to think this is the stuff that the OC has to be able to fix.  either with different formations/play calls, or with a better feel for the game to play rock paper scissors vs the D better.

 

It is sometimes shocking how we can just eff the dog so bad on O for so much of the game, especially when we turn it around some and get back in it (Balt and pittz games are great examples, if we had a miracle catch by brown and won that baltimore game, science could never explain how it happened).  they really do always keep it interesting tho.

[ngbills]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ngbills, drops are strictly scored as "a ball that could be caught by ordinary effort".  Accuracy should impact the number of balls that meet that criteria to be drops - but drops are by definition supposed to be balls with good placement that an NFL WR should be able to catch routinely.

 

Observationally, as has been mentioned elsewhere, the drops from young guys like Knox aren't on the high degree of difficulty stuff - they're on the routine "gimme" balls and seem to be associated with looking beyond the catch.

 

Yes technically drops are what meet a definition. My point is a guy that you know where the ball is going to be consistently vs a guy that does not have that quality yet; the pass catchers will tend to have more drops of easy balls with a guy that has less consistent placement. Think about it - you stand there and catch the ball 100 times with every pass being right between the numbers every time. Stand there for 100 passes and some are to the left, right, high, low. Which round of 100 do you drop more? They are all technically the same drops...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

 

Yes technically drops are what meet a definition. My point is a guy that you know where the ball is going to be consistently vs a guy that does not have that quality yet; the pass catchers will tend to have more drops of easy balls with a guy that has less consistent placement. Think about it - you stand there and catch the ball 100 times with every pass being right between the numbers every time. Stand there for 100 passes and some are to the left, right, high, low. Which round of 100 do you drop more? They are all technically the same drops...

 

It's not "technically", drops ARE balls that meet a definition of a ball placed where a WR should be able to catch it with "reasonable effort".

 

Precise and reproducible placement make a QB's passes easier to catch, certainly.  It's been a hallmark of Brady's career, for example.  Rodgers is also very precise in his placement.  Drew Brees.  But there are many QB with lower drops whose placement is also not so precise, and every QB places balls less consistently when under pressure (including Brady, Brees, and Rodgers)

 

It's still what NFL WR get paid to do - catch the ball.  Allen's accuracy (or lack thereof) do not explain the high percentage of drops from his WR.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

 

Yes technically drops are what meet a definition. My point is a guy that you know where the ball is going to be consistently vs a guy that does not have that quality yet; the pass catchers will tend to have more drops of easy balls with a guy that has less consistent placement. Think about it - you stand there and catch the ball 100 times with every pass being right between the numbers every time. Stand there for 100 passes and some are to the left, right, high, low. Which round of 100 do you drop more? They are all technically the same drops...

I understand why you might think this, but it’s just not fundamentally accurate in any way.
 

Maybe a bad WR who plays pickup ball in the park or an amateur WR at the lowest levels you could slightly make this case for because they don’t know how to track a ball.   But WRs at the pro level don’t catch passes on an expectation of placement, and no QB in history has ever put a ball in the perfect spot even on half of their throws let alone 100 in a row.

 

Sorry, your case here just has no merit.  The drop balls stat is strictly drops on well placed balls.  I watched Cooper drop 5 passes right in his hands in one game including back to back would be TDs and he only got credited with 2 because the other 3 weren’t perfectly placed even though the ball hit him square in both hands and should have for sure been caught.  
 

This is the NFL, its the QBs job to put the ball where only his guy can get it, and that very often means somewhere other than right in the numbers...including low, high, outside, and back shoulder.  In fact, with an even more accurate QB, say Rodgers, the ball will often be placed in those places which is why he throws so few INTs.

 

So this notion you proposed here just isn’t accurate as receivers are tracking the ball through its flight path and off target passes that are dropped are not credited as drops.  

Edited December 20, 2019 by Alphadawg7