Buffalo Bills & Drops

[Billsfan1972]

Found this & alarming.....

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=10&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills-team-stats?season=2019&week=0&category=RECEIVING

 

Knox 26 catches, 9 drops, Singletary 4 of 26, Beasley & Brown too with 4.  Knew it was bad, but downright pathetic.

 

28 drops and 252 completions so drop rate of 11.1%

 

Saints have 26, however 342 completions so 7.6%

 

Bucs 19 of 316 so 6.0%

[machine gun kelly]

Good post 72.

[HOUSE]

It's been windy

[whatdrought]

Based on the fact that we had this problem last year, and that all four of those guys are new to the team this year- makes you wonder how much of that is on coaching?

 

also, wonder if Allen puts too much heat on the ball. Though I remember a lot of drops that weren’t thrown hard. 

[CommonCents]

On Singeltary’s drop on the swing pass last week, did anyone else notice how he tried to move his entire body to catch a ball that was coming in at his waistline? Just use your damn hands!! If he had caught it he would have had more acceleration without dropping his hips.

 

 

[BuffaloBillies]

It's God's fault...

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

6 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

It's been windy

Wonder how the 90’s teams drop rates fared in the Rich Stadium winds during the playoffs etc. for comparison?

[Seasons1992]

10 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

also, wonder if Allen puts too much heat on the ball. 

 

I understand the thought process and will not flame you at all for the sentiment, but these are people getting paid a bazillion dollars to catch a football. Brett Favre threw REALLY hard, so did Elway, so do plenty of QB's. Catch the damn ball. Turn up the Jugs machine all week to Plaid, and get it right.

4 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Wonder how the 90’s teams drop rates fared in the Rich Stadium winds during the playoffs etc. for comparison?

 

I don't remember them dropping a whole lot when the ball was right there to catch. 

[SCBills]

I think some of it could be conditions, some Allen’s velocity, but the main thing is Allen is throwing to a slot WR, a #2 WR, a rookie RB and rookie TE as his main receiving options.  
 

I don’t know that it gets much better next year given the WR we land probably being a rookie as well, but hopefully the influx of talent will outweigh what may just be something we have to deal with for a while.  
 

This is also everyone’s first year A) with Allen and B) in the windy conditions of Buffalo. 

[Gugny]

Wind means nothing when the ball hits receivers either on the hands or in the chest.  The ball is there.

 

And if a pass catcher can't handle a fastball, then he doesn't belong in the NFL.

 

It's pathetic and it's cost us games.  A lot of these drops have been either imminent first downs or imminent touchdowns.

 

Ridiculous.

[TroutDog]

For Singletary and Knox, I attribute it to their college careers: nether were pass catchers. In addition, it does take time for most receivers to get used to the NFL level. 
 

As a reminder, Robert Woods was perpetually flamed here: look at him now. Patience is required at this level for almost everyone. 

Edited December 14, 2019 by TroutDog

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Found this & alarming.....

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=10&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills-team-stats?season=2019&week=0&category=RECEIVING

 

Knox 26 catches, 9 drops, Singletary 4 of 26, Beasley & Brown too with 4.  Knew it was bad, but downright pathetic.

 

28 drops and 252 completions so drop rate of 11.1%

 

Saints have 26, however 342 completions so 7.6%

 

Bucs 19 of 316 so 6.0%

 

Not that it's good, but pro.football.reference gives our team drop rate as 6.4% - which is leading the league, by a good chalk. 

Last year we were mid-league with 4.8%

 

I am not sure, but I think Knox with his 20% drop rate may be a good part of that increase.  Singletary 10.8% also not good.  Some people attribute this to being rookies, as many times the drop is on easier passes where they have a ton of room - they transition to thinking about the run before they've finished "looking in" the ball.

 

But something is off with the calculation of 11% drops.  It's simply not that high.

[Scott7975]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not that it's good, but pro.football.reference gives our team drop rate as 6.4% - which is leading the league, by a good chalk. 

Last year we were mid-league with 4.8%

 

I am not sure, but I think Knox with his 20% drop rate may be a good part of that increase.  Singletary 10.8% also not good.  Some people attribute this to being rookies, as many times the drop is on easier passes where they have a ton of room - they transition to thinking about the run before they've finished "looking in" the ball.

 

But something is off with the calculation of 11% drops.  It's simply not that high.

The difference is one calculation is based off attempts and the other calculation is based off completions.  However, based off attempts the number is actually 6.9% not 6.4. 

 

edit: the 6.4 could be accurate.  I based off Josh's attempts.  I did not add in Barkley's attempts and Browns one attempt.  Adding them might drop it to 6.4 but I'm not going to bother with it.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Scott7975

[K-9]

40 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

It's God's fault...

 

Why you do me like this, God?

[BarleyNY]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

But something is off with the calculation of 11% drops.  It's simply not that high.

Drop rate is usually calculated as drops/targets.  That’s the main part of the difference.  Also it looks like the OP tried to figure drops as a percentage of catchable balls, but calculated it as drops/catches instead of drops/(catches+drops).

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

Drop rate is usually calculated as drops/targets.  That’s the main part of the difference.  Also it looks like the OP tried to figure drops as a percentage of catchable balls, but calculated it as drops/catches instead of drops/(catches+drops).

 

I posted above about a difference.  Good catch on this one. I didn't even really look at the math haha.

[HOUSE]

Josh throws to hard

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by HOUSE

[Pokebball]

45 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

On Singeltary’s drop on the swing pass last week, did anyone else notice how he tried to move his entire body to catch a ball that was coming in at his waistline? Just use your damn hands!! If he had caught it he would have had more acceleration without dropping his hips.

 

 

I thought he turned his head up field too soon, taking his eyes off the ball

[Scott7975]

Just now, Pokebball said:

I thought he turned his head up field too soon, taking his eyes off the ball

Not sure on Singletary's drop but Knox definitely did.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I feel most of it falls on Allen, his passes have been behind or just rockets. He definitely needs to work on his touch with a RB in the flat or a TE that is 6 yards away. I think Knox and Singletary have good hands but are still feeling out Allen.

[The Wiz]

11 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Josh throws to hard

 

About as hard as Zay kicks security glass. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

5 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I feel most of it falls on Allen, his passes have been behind or just rockets. He definitely needs to work on his touch with a RB in the flat or a TE that is 6 yards away. I think Knox and Singletary have good hands but are still feeling out Allen.

You usually  tend towards this

Edited December 14, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[whatdrought]

51 minutes ago, Seasons1992 said:

 

I understand the thought process and will not flame you at all for the sentiment, but these are people getting paid a bazillion dollars to catch a football. Brett Favre threw REALLY hard, so did Elway, so do plenty of QB's. Catch the damn ball. Turn up the Jugs machine all week to Plaid, and get it right.

 

Completely agree. They need to be better. That's what has me wondering if it's coaching.

[JK Fan]

7 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I feel most of it falls on Allen, his passes have been behind or just rockets. He definitely needs to work on his touch with a RB in the flat or a TE that is 6 yards away. I think Knox and Singletary have good hands but are still feeling out Allen.

I disagree it is on Allen.  Proffessional football players are paid to catch the ball.  Allen's passes are not any harder than other NFL QB's.  If they get their hands on it they should catch it.

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

Wind means nothing when the ball hits receivers either on the hands or in the chest.  The ball is there.

 

And if a pass catcher can't handle a fastball, then he doesn't belong in the NFL.

 

It's pathetic and it's cost us games.  A lot of these drops have been either imminent first downs or imminent touchdowns.

 

Ridiculous.

I still say experience is the largest factor. Dont have a number but would you agree that many of the drops the receiver is already turning his head downfield before he secures the ball. 1 by Knox and 1 by Singletary this past week alone. Edit: I'm not going to panic yet like some have .

Edited December 14, 2019 by fansince88

[Scott7975]

29 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I feel most of it falls on Allen, his passes have been behind or just rockets. He definitely needs to work on his touch with a RB in the flat or a TE that is 6 yards away. I think Knox and Singletary have good hands but are still feeling out Allen.

 

Yes it definitely falls on Allen that Knox drops a ball not because placement or how hard he threw it... but because Knox turned his head to start running before he caught the ball.

[CincyBillsFan]

37 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I feel most of it falls on Allen, his passes have been behind or just rockets. He definitely needs to work on his touch with a RB in the flat or a TE that is 6 yards away. I think Knox and Singletary have good hands but are still feeling out Allen.

 

Do you watch other football games?  Not just the NFL but also in college you will see all sorts of receivers catching balls that are low, high, or to one side or the other. 

 

But from my vantage point, in the drops I've seen the ball was mostly on the money and didn't have excessive velocity. 

 

It's actually stunning that the Bills have FOUR receivers with the most drops in the top 45 players with drops in the NFL.  Considering the total # of receivers available to include in this list this is an amazing stat.

 

I agree with others that have noted that both Singleterry & Knox have little college experience in pass receiving.  And Beasley & Brown may not be used to the tight windows Allen puts the ball. 

 

But the reality is that this stat more then any other IMO has contributed significantly to our offensive struggles.

 

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[Pokebball]

38 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I feel most of it falls on Allen, his passes have been behind or just rockets. He definitely needs to work on his touch with a RB in the flat or a TE that is 6 yards away. I think Knox and Singletary have good hands but are still feeling out Allen.

Couldn't disagree more

[ProcessTruster]

1 hour ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Wonder how the 90’s teams drop rates fared in the Rich Stadium winds during the playoffs etc. for comparison?

Yeah, OP comparing the Bills to Florida and Dome teams with GOAT QBs is what's pathetic.   Go get me some useful comparison data and come back.    Everyone bitching after a loss and then buying SB tickets after a win. 

 

Dawson Knox and Motor are huge breaths of fresh air at those positions.   They're rookies who will get even better at their positions.

 

Go Beane.   Great drafting, seven solid starters in 2 drafts.  Coach 'em up McD.  These are early days.  

 

Trust the Process. 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillies said:

It's God's fault...

 

Every thing god makes dies... 

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

 

I understand the thought process and will not flame you at all for the sentiment, but these are people getting paid a bazillion dollars to catch a football. Brett Favre threw REALLY hard, so did Elway, so do plenty of QB's. Catch the damn ball. Turn up the Jugs machine all week to Plaid, and get it right.

 

They traded the JUGS machine to the Raiders and he is on IR.

[Lazy]

1 hour ago, TroutDog said:

For Singletary and Knox, I attribute it to their college careers: nether were pass catchers. In addition, it does take time for most receivers to get used to the NFL level. 
 

As a reminder, Robert Woods was perpetually flamed here: look at home now. Patience is required at this level for almost everyone. 

 

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

Wind means nothing when the ball hits receivers either on the hands or in the chest.  The ball is there.

 

And if a pass catcher can't handle a fastball, then he doesn't belong in the NFL.

 

It's pathetic and it's cost us games.  A lot of these drops have been either imminent first downs or imminent touchdowns.

 

Ridiculous.

Both of these are spot on. Knox and Singletary didn't get many passes to them in college and using conditions as an excuse(maybe rain) is stretching it, if it hits their hands they should be catching them or at least not dropping as many.

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Found this & alarming.....

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=10&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills-team-stats?season=2019&week=0&category=RECEIVING

 

Knox 26 catches, 9 drops, Singletary 4 of 26, Beasley & Brown too with 4.  Knew it was bad, but downright pathetic.

 

28 drops and 252 completions so drop rate of 11.1%

 

Saints have 26, however 342 completions so 7.6%

 

Bucs 19 of 316 so 6.0%

Can you say Duke Williams?( I like the way you say that) it just might be a sign that he needs to be active on game day, and used.  Go ahead and flame away, but he is no worse than our other WRs and likely better at the most important thing, CATCHING the damn ball. A particularly important part of the passing game...

 

Go Bills!!!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

40 minutes ago, JK Fan said:

I disagree it is on Allen.  Proffessional football players are paid to catch the ball.  Allen's passes are not any harder than other NFL QB's.  If they get their hands on it they should catch it.

A strong arm QB throws the ball at about 60 and Allen throws at 70mph. He actually throws faster than the freaking Jugs. He needs to work on ball placement and velocity in different situations. 

[Don Otreply]

5 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

A strong arm QB throws the ball at about 60 and Allen throws at 70mph. He actually throws faster than the freaking Jugs. He needs to work on ball placement and velocity in different situations. 

Any maths that shows 70 mph throws all game long? As has been stated above, when the ball hits your hands or chest there are no excuses, and it has indeed cost us games. It appears our coaches need to sharpen their tutorials on catching the ball. 

 

Go Bills!!!

[MJS]

I don't care if Allen throws hard. Catch the ball. Knox has got to do better. Singletary is a running back so I don't care that much on his. But the primary job of receivers and tight ends is to catch the ball. It isn't to get YAC. It isn't even to score TD's. Catching the ball trumps every other good thing they could do on the field. Inexcusable to be looking up field before the ball is secured. That's drilled into children at the lowest levels of football.

 

I'm never going to blame the QB for dropped passes. It's the receiver's job.

12 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

A strong arm QB throws the ball at about 60 and Allen throws at 70mph. He actually throws faster than the freaking Jugs. He needs to work on ball placement and velocity in different situations. 

Bull. Allen isn't throwing every ball as hard as he can. And these recievers have been catching balls from him all year. They just need to do better.

[Jerome007]

Only Knox has been an issue IMO. And even so, his overall play and abilities make it worth it to have him in the line up and thrown to. He's made great plays and duds... as many talented rookies.

 

Yes, this needs to be improved, but r-e-l-a-x

[TigerJ]

The ball is cold?

[Scott7975]

What baffles me about Knox is that he drops the routine catches but then catches something he probably shouldn't.

[White Linen]

It's all because Allen isn't as accurate as Rosen.