Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

I don't think it's silly, you want the opposing teams defense to at least respect that aspect, and come playoff time you might need that part of the passing game to actually work.

 

Says the guy who thinks that a RB playing QB is a better QB at this point.

 

 

 

[Seven-N-Nine]

8 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Says the guy who thinks that a RB playing QB is a better QB at this point.

 

 

 

I never said I wanted Lamar Jackson. But you can't deny he's having success.  I wanted Sam Darnold and then Rosen, Jackson was not on my list, because I agree with the RB playing QB part of it.

[Ennjay]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

This is a team that won 6 games last year, with a completely new offense, a young QB in his 2nd year, still lacking all of the pieces they are looking for (as they are still building), and a team that most people picked to not even make the playoffs this year.

 

I'm really encouraged by JA's 4Q performances for reasons beginning with Yogi's timeless and perfect observation that 90% of this game (any game FWIW) is half mental.

 

Listen to JA and watch him at pressers.  He's not a savvy, poised long-timer like a Brady or an Eli or even a Fitz.  He's still a big excited kid who's happy to be here.  It wasn't that long ago he was at the U of Wyoming, where he was not  playing in front of packed houses at the Big House or the Horseshoe or Jerry's World or whatever they've got in the SEC for crowd nutziness (and I say this with respect for the SEC).  I've worried in games like NE this year that the moments are too big for him and he's not emotionally ready at the start -- he's too keyed up.  He's got great talent and he really can play this game well.  By the 4Q he seems to be settled and therefore he plays his best.

 

The Bills are ahead of schedule.  (We got fooled by making the playoffs in Year 1 of the current regime; what was supposed to be a teardown year to clear out deadwood was the accidental playoff year thanks to Cinci, so so much of the teardown got delayed or deferred.) There was also the dead money salary cap issue.) In the progression from (1) just plain bad (Miami, Washington?) to (2) tough out (what people thought Tennessee would be? or what Atlanta would be?) to (3) playoff contender (Seattle? Dallas?) to (4) high expectations (Pittsburgh, realistic or not this year?) to (5) top tier/elite (NE? KC?), I thought this year's team would be somewhere between (2) and (3) with the jump to (4)/(5) in '20, but with the development of the D things came faster.

Edited October 21, 2019 by Ennjay

[billsfan1959]

24 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

I don't think it's silly, you want the opposing teams defense to at least respect that aspect, and come playoff time you might need that part of the passing game to actually work.

It is silly. The deep pass makes up such a small percentage of passes. The way you and some other posters go on, it's as if Allen is abysmall at getting the ball down field. Let's look at the actual small percentage of attempts that comprise 40+ completions - and where Allen stands on both 20+ and 40+:

 

Percentage of pass attempts that are completions of 20+ yards: 
(With minimum of 150 attempts)

1. Patrick Mahomes    12.86
2. Matthew Stafford    12.84
3. Russell Wilson    12.60
4. Aaron Rodgers    12.4
5. Tom Brady    12.28
6. Dak Prescott    11.76
7. Lamar Jackson    11.62
8. Gardner Minshew    11.50
9. Jimmy Garoppolo    11.37
10. Baker Mayfield    11.11
11. Jameis Winston    10.90
12. Philip Rivers    10.50
13. Deshaun Watson10.21
14. Marcus Mariota    10.06
15. Josh Allen    10.05

 

Percentage of pass attempts that are completions of 40+ yards:
(With minimum of 150 attempts)

1.Patrick Mahomes    .041
2. Marcus Mariota    .037
3. Kirk Cousins    .031
4. Dak Prescott    .029
5. Aaron Rodgers    .028
6. Russell Wilson    .026
7. Deshaun Watson    .025
8. Lamar Jackson    .023
9. Jameis Winston    .022
10. Joe Flacco    .021
11. Carson Wentz    .020
12. Baker Mayfield    .020
13. Kyler Murray    .019
14. Matthew Stafford    .018
15. Andy Dalton    .017
16. Daniel Jones    .017
17. Josh Allen    .015

Edited October 21, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Seven-N-Nine]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

It is silly. The deep pass makes up such a small percentage of passes. The way you and some other posters go on, it's as if Allen is abysmall at getting the ball down field. Let's look at the actual small percentage of attempts that comprise  20+ and 40+ completions - and where Allen stands:

 

Percentage of pass attempts that are completions of 20+ yards: 
(With minimum of 150 attempts)

1. Patrick Mahomes    12.86
2. Matthew Stafford    12.84
3. Russell Wilson    12.60
4. Aaron Rodgers    12.4
5. Tom Brady    12.28
6. Dak Prescott    11.76
7. Lamar Jackson    11.62
8. Gardner Minshew    11.50
9. Jimmy Garoppolo    11.37
10. Baker Mayfield    11.11
11. Jameis Winston    10.90
12. Philip Rivers    10.50
13. Deshaun Watson10.21
14. Marcus Mariota    10.06
15. Josh Allen    10.05

 

Percentage of pass attempts that are completions of 24+ yards:
(With minimum of 150 attempts)

1.Patrick Mahomes    .041
2. Marcus Mariota    .037
3. Kirk Cousins    .031
4. Dak Prescott    .029
5. Aaron Rodgers    .028
6. Russell Wilson    .026
7. Deshaun Watson    .025
8. Lamar Jackson    .023
9. Jameis Winston    .022
10. Joe Flacco    .021
11. Carson Wentz    .020
12. Baker Mayfield    .020
13. Kyler Murray    .019
14. Matthew Stafford    .018
15. Andy Dalton    .017
16. Daniel Jones    .017
17. Josh Allen    .015

What I find interesting on those lists is Mahomes on top and Allen on bottom.  If defenses know Allen sucks at the long ball, it might make it easier to take away other aspects of the offense due to not having to worry about being beaten deep.

[prissythecat]

3 hours ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

No, having to perform 4th qtr. comebacks in virtually every game, even against the worst team in football, is not only not a complete game, it is not sustainable.  

 

 

Makes me think of this famous thread from our 2011 season:

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

No, having to perform 4th qtr. comebacks in virtually every game, even against the worst team in football, is not only not a complete game, it is not sustainable.  

 

What are Tom Brady's 4th QRT comebacks #'s.  

 

Seriously man.  This is a good thing

5 Fourth Quarter Comebacks, 7 Game-Winning Drives

 

 

 

Tyrod Taylor  in 7 - 8 or is it 9 seasons 

4 Fourth Quarter Comebacks, 5 Game-Winning Drives

Edited October 21, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Seven-N-Nine said:

What I find interesting on those lists is Mahomes on top and Allen on bottom.  If defenses know Allen sucks at the long ball, it might make it easier to take away other aspects of the offense due to not having to worry about being beaten deep.

Allen isn't on the BOTTOM of the list - I stopped the list at 15 for 20+ completions and 17 on 40+ completions. Allen is in the middle of the pack, not the bottom. You do know there are 32 teams in the NFL.

 

The point is, Allen isn't abysmal and there isn't a significant amount of difference in most of the percentages.

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

62.4%

is 24th in the NFL.   

 

There is more to a game that this endlessly changing stat. 

 

as a team the # is actually 62.0 % 

Look how bad the Falcons are ... They have a Comp % of 71.5

Ya see where I'm going here?  

Some stats are just irrelevant 

 

Its not irrelevant as it is a stat that needs to be closely scrutinized and broken down . Offenses are too diverse and nuanced now. How many screens do you run? How many deep shots etc...

Edited October 21, 2019 by RichRiderBills

[Ta111]

2 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Its not irrelevant as it is a stat that needs to be closely scrutinized and broken down . Offenses are too diverse and nuanced now. How many screens do you run? How many deep shots etc...

Agreed. Need to know 3rd down completion rate that keeps drives alive and 4th quarter percentage when game is on the line. I’ve seen many “high” percentage passers and losing teams.

[Seven-N-Nine]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Allen isn't on the BOTTOM of the list - I stopped the list at 15 for 20+ completions and 17 on 40+ completions. Allen is in the middle of the pack, not the bottom. You do know there are 32 teams in the NFL.

 

The point is, Allen isn't abysmal and there isn't a significant amount of difference in most of the percentages.

I don't think looking at the numbers tells the story on how a defense will game plan against Allen is what I'm getting at. IMO, Allen has to start connecting to add that threat to the teams capabilities.  I mean hell, that was one of the things he was supposed to do well when drafted.

[Augie]

This is what it’s like after a WIN!

 

I’m going to run and hide if and when we lose!

[Mrbojanglezs]

13 hours ago, George C said:

He so far has zero touch and trajectory talent, and, his long balls suck. He has a long way to go, and I couldn’t care less how strong of an arm he has. I need to see trajectory...

 

his touch has improved a lot from year 1 to year 2 on short and intermediate throws. But he does need to work on the long ball, getting more air under it and throttling his arm strength.

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

I don't think looking at the numbers tells the story on how a defense will game plan against Allen is what I'm getting at. IMO, Allen has to start connecting to add that threat to the teams capabilities.  I mean hell, that was one of the things he was supposed to do well when drafted.

Of course you don't. Because you only see what you want to see. He proved you wrong in his ability to improve his short passing game, he proved you wrong in his ability to improve his overall accuracy, and he will continue to prove you wrong...

 

and you will continue to focus on the negative aspects of his game...

[YoloinOhio]

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Yolo.. you know better than to post these facts  ... It confuses people  

 

NFL rank - lowest % to highest)
thats good right?    

 

[billsfan1959]

26 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Shhhhh...

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[The Red King]

Having to perform constant late comebacks, even against bad teams, was the hallmark of the early SB Bills, lest you forget, nobody circles the wagons like?  I mean c'mon, they were called the Cardiac Kids for awhile.

 

Just win, baby.

[Big Blitz]

Just showed my wife who missed the game yesterday to get our youngest to a birthday party, the highlight of Josh throwing the ball at the press box.

 

She said "he just seems like he has a fun personality."

 

Yep.  And when he starts putting up numbers and winning games...hopefully playoff games soon, he could be one of the faces of the league. 

 

He is must see TV.  But if you viewed him before the draft as a bust that needed to be avoided like the plague bc duh completion percentage, you will never be on board until he hoists the Lombardi.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 10/20/2019 at 11:27 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

With that 4th quarter I think Allen might push himself up to #1 or #2 in QB passer rating in the 4th quarter this year.

 

On 10/20/2019 at 6:12 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Anyone wondering Allen's 4th quarter stats for the whole season:

 

22/32 (68.8%)

312 yards (9.8 YPA)

4TDs

0 INTs

139.6 QB Rating

 

Guess that's what happened 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Has the intended point been proven yet?  

 

Josh is improving and the media experts that said he was inaccurate are full of it.  Case closed. 

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

But every time someone comes on WGR they say how inaccurate he is...

 

It's nuts

[hemma]

I guess 13 drops (our current stat) for the entire team is probably not unusual, but I'm thinking 6 drops out of 23 attempts (Dawson Knox) IS outside the norm.

Tied for the most in the NFL, with few targets.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills-team-stats?season=2019&week=0&category=RECEIVING

 

Knox catches those, Josh's completion % is 65.6% instead of 62.4%.

Now that Kroft is back and seemingly survived his first game, I wouldn't be surprised to see Knox's snap count to come way down.  

[Boatdrinks]

13 hours ago, The Red King said:

Having to perform constant late comebacks, even against bad teams, was the hallmark of the early SB Bills, lest you forget, nobody circles the wagons like?  I mean c'mon, they were called the Cardiac Kids for awhile.

 

Just win, baby.

This is a good point, and it seems lost on many. While the comebacks can be nerve wracking, they can also be damn entertaining. At some point, anticipating calamity became ingrained in the minds of Bills fans rather than just pulling for their team on the next play. Sure, blowing every team out while cruising to easy wins doesn’t really happen at a high statistical rate in the NFL. This season is no different, as I believe the % of games decided by a TD or less was 55% heading into last week. I’d much rather watch my team win in fourth quarter rallies than find new and inventive ways to lose them. 

[26TrapDraw]

On 10/21/2019 at 7:20 AM, Augie said:

This is what it’s like after a WIN!

 

I’m going to run and hide if and when we lose!

I know huh! The fact is Augie when's the last time you saw TBD this alive though. Debates passionate discussions and comments. It hasn't felt this good to be a Bills fan in a while .I say let them eat each other ?

[Victory Formation]

And the 37.6% of his missed throws came on deep passes.

[C.Biscuit97]

13 hours ago, The Red King said:

Having to perform constant late comebacks, even against bad teams, was the hallmark of the early SB Bills, lest you forget, nobody circles the wagons like?  I mean c'mon, they were called the Cardiac Kids for awhile.

 

Just win, baby.

Just looked it up. Kelly had 21 4th quarter comebacks in 160 starts.  (13%).  Allen has 5 in 17 starts (29%).  The Bills would dominate early in games in the 90s and won’t need to come back.  It’s a very overrated stat.  If we had more consistent offense on the first 6 games, Allen wouldn’t have so many comebacks.

[teef]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Just looked it up. Kelly had 21 4th quarter comebacks in 160 starts.  (13%).  Allen has 5 in 17 starts (29%).  The Bills would dominate early in games in the 90s and won’t need to come back.  It’s a very overrated stat.  If we had more consistent offense on the first 6 games, Allen wouldn’t have so many comebacks.

it's overrated because it applies to a bills player...isn't it?

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Just looked it up. Kelly had 21 4th quarter comebacks in 160 starts.  (13%).  Allen has 5 in 17 starts (29%).  The Bills would dominate early in games in the 90s and won’t need to come back.  It’s a very overrated stat.  If we had more consistent offense on the first 6 games, Allen wouldn’t have so many comebacks.

 

[Bray Wyatt]

26 minutes ago, teef said:

it's overrated because it applies to a bills player...isn't it?

 

I mean look at the top 10 list of 4th quarter come backs. Such ***** Qb's on there all over rated

[Nextmanup]

7 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

Has the intended point been proven yet?  

 

Josh is improving and the media experts that said he was inaccurate are full of it.  Case closed. 

 

 

His completion percentage places him around 25th amongst active QBs.

 

 

[teef]

Just now, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I mean look at the top 10 list of 4th quarter come backs. Such ***** Qb's on there all over rated

our man always makes great points!

Just now, Nextmanup said:

His completion percentage places him around 25th amongst active QBs.

 

 

but he has been improving...right?  that's what we wanted to see.

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

His completion percentage places him around 25th amongst active QBs.

 

His adjusted rate is top-10. 

[JaCrispy]

JA has erased all my fears about his short and intermediate passing game...I never thought that would happen, so even if he just maintains the same level of play the rest of the season, I will consider it a success.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

His completion percentage places him around 25th amongst active QBs.

 

 

Correct. Which is another question      why all the discussion.

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

53 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

His completion percentage places him around 25th amongst active QBs.

 

 

 

21st actually among the 32 QBs with 100+ attempts.

 

But the broader issue is that this year he falls within the perfectly acceptable range of completion percentage if you're thinking of standard deviation. 

 

Last year, he did not.

 

The 5 QBs listed with a completion percentage greater than Allen are no more than 2.4% higher.  The 5 QBs listed with completion percentage lower than Allen are 2.3% lower.

 

The bottom of the pack of Mayfield and Rosen are 5.8% and 9.2% lower.  Those guys are where Allen was last year.  And if you actually look at the list of completion percentage this year, those guys are the outliers on the bottom end and Derek Carr is the outlier on the top end.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, BeefCurtns said:

I know huh! The fact is Augie when's the last time you saw TBD this alive though. Debates passionate discussions and comments. It hasn't felt this good to be a Bills fan in a while .I say let them eat each other ?

 

Winning always feels SO MUCH better than the other options! It certainly is invigorating for everyone! 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, teef said:

it's overrated because it applies to a bills player...isn't it?

Omg. You’re such a soccer mom. Someone said something not amazing about my baby! Let me get the other soccer moms to yell at them!

 

We’re 5-1. Things are good.  But sorry for not throwing a party because we have pathetically low standards for good qb play.  Allen “led” a comeback against the Titans and we scored 2 tds!!! He led a comeback against one of the worst teams in modern history!  We came back against the 0-7 Bengals!  

 

Look, he’s improved in some things but this defense carries this team.  If we had a more consistent offense, we could do some real damage in this crappy AFC.  Our qb expectations are so pathetically low. 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I mean look at the top 10 list of 4th quarter come backs. Such ***** Qb's on there all over rated

https://www.google.com/amp/s/lionswire.usatoday.com/2019/09/16/matthew-stafford-moves-into-top-10-in-career-4th-quarter-comeback-wins/amp/

 

?