What would a Shaq Lawson contract extension look like for the Buffalo Bills?

[HOUSE]

 

The former first-round pick is set to hit the open market a year from now.

 

 

By Matt Warren Jun 20, 2019, 9:00am EDT

 

Earlier this offseason, the Buffalo Bills declined to pick up former first-round selection Shaq Lawson’s fifth-year option. With that decision, Lawson will be a free agent following the 2019 season, but does that mean he couldn’t end up back in Buffalo on a different deal?

When Buffalo declined to pay Lawson, they turned down a one-year, $10 million extension. That was too rich for Buffalo’s blood. Using that as a guideline, let’s take a look at what type of contract a solid rotational piece can nab on the free agent market.

Lawson, aged 25, is angling for his second contract in the NFL and is not likely to take a hometown discount until he at least sees what other offers are out there following 2019. With 10 sacks and 76 tackles in 35 games over three seasons, he’s a decent defensive end in the league, but not among the great or elite players at the position.

You can’t compare Lawson’s numbers to that of the big free agent prize from 2019; Trey Flowers. Flowers has 6.5 or more sacks in each of his last three seasons (21 total) while racking up 164 tackles. His production is more than double that of Lawson.

Here are some better comparables:

Alex Okafor
Three years, $17.9 million ($11.5 guaranteed)
Kansas City Chiefs

At 28, Okafor is three years older than Lawson and finds himself on his third NFL team, joining the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason after a solid two-year stint in New Orleans. With the Saints, he had 4 and 4.5 sacks with 36 and 43 tackles in 2018 and 2017. He started 26 games over the last two seasons. Pro Football Focus actually ranked Lawson ahead of Okafor in 2018.

Trent Murphy
Three years, $22.5 million ($10.375 guaranteed)
Buffalo Bills

After averaging five sacks per season over his first three years, Murphy missed 2017 with a torn ACL. That didn’t stop Buffalo from signing him to a solid deal when his rookie contract expired. Murphy did have problems flip-flopping from DE to OLB in Washington, but in Buffalo he’s played only defensive end under Sean McDermott.

DaQuan Jones ($14 million guaranteed)
Three years, $21 million
Tennessee Titans

Jones was the Titans’ starter at defensive end by his second season and developed into a solid run defender at the end spot. He also contributed 3.5 sacks in his contract year before re-upping in Tennessee. With 102 tackles in the three years before his contract extension, he’s outpaced Lawson and been very healthy.

Contract projection

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/6/20/18683711/what-would-a-shaq-lawson-contract-extension-look-like-for-the-buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-2016

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by HOUSE

[PetermansRedemption]

Yikes. Just let him walk if that is the case. I really don’t feel like Lawson would be overly difficult to replace by a later round draft pick or a “prove it” type free agent. 

[HOUSE]

I will give him one bag of money but not two

Edited June 20, 2019 by HOUSE

[K-9]

At the moment, a disaster.

[transient]

[Max Fischer]

Regardless of his 2019 performance, I don't think the Bills re-sign Lawson. I can only see it if Lawson performs at a pro-bowl level AND he's willing to give a hometown discount (which seems very doubtful for a guy who might be playing for his last contract).  

[Rigotz]

He will play well this year because he seems to be a self-centered guy (based on following his instagram for several years).

Hopefully he plays well so we can trade him for a pick.

 

There is a zero percent chance we extend him. He doesn't fit in with this regime at all. He's a classic Rex guy.

[Seasons1992]

I don't see him back at all. For who/for what? 

[nucci]

He won't get one

[Foxx]

12 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

He will play well this year because he seems to be a self-centered guy (based on following his instagram for several years).

Hopefully he plays well so we can trade him for a pick.

 

There is a zero percent chance we extend him. He doesn't fit in with this regime at all. He's a classic Rex guy.

umm... we declined his fifth year option. i don't know that without a contract for next year, anyone is going to want to trade for him.

[Victory Formation]

I think 3 years 18 million. I'd gladly have him back on a deal like that. He's not what we expected but he's a good player.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I see this topic as a very low priory at present.

 

Lets see what he does on the field. 

[Irv]

Can't remember him ever making a big play.  I would cut him after camp.  If you don't cut him then I'd offer $25K per year and two autographed Zay Jones frying pans.   Maybe the Jills could use him.  Another Whaley blunder. 

 

 

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Irv

[Coach Tuesday]

He'd sign it a half-second late.

[billsbackto81]

It would "Look" premature.

 

A little off topic but I don't feel like starting a Thread.

 

Who was the better player heading into FA?   Shaw Lawson or Preston Brown?

 

I find them both to be to very similar in the sense that their both serviceable but not spectacular.

Edited June 20, 2019 by billsbackto81

[ROCBillsBeliever]

6 minutes ago, Irv said:

Can't remember him ever making a big play.  I would cut him after camp.  If you don't cut him then I'd offer $25K per year and two autographed Zay Jones frying pans.   Maybe the Jills could use him.  Another Whaley blunder. 

 

Zay Jones Frying Pans, you say? What are you willing to part with them for?

???

[Irv]

2 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Zay Jones Frying Pans, you say? What are you willing to part with them for?

???

 

Well first they have to be surgically removed.

[CuddyDark]

If I'm Lawson I wouldn't resign with the Bills. I think he's a good player but will never been respected or seen as a good player here, mostly because Bills fans don't understand football or his role. He's not supposed to have ten sacks. People need to get over the sack numbers. Also I think he should go to a 34 team and play one gap 5tech like he did in college.

[Victory Formation]

3 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

If I'm Lawson I wouldn't resign with the Bills. I think he's a good player but will never been respected or seen as a good player here, mostly because Bills fans don't understand football or his role. He's not supposed to have ten sacks. People need to get over the sack numbers. Also I think he should go to a 34 team and play one gap 5tech like he did in college.

I think we haven't seen his best yet. He's good at setting the edge and I do think he could have a couple 8 sack years on top of that.

[Wsam4031]

was just looking at that 2016 draft and man there were not a lot of good players to come out of that draft. here were a handlful but looks like a pretty bad draft year

[Rc2catch]

Shaq takes too much heat around here. People are expecting the sack numbers which I get, but he has matured every season and gotten better. This is definitely a tell tale year for him on the player he’s going to be. Just because he hasn’t “flashed” does not mean this is his peak. It only takes learning one good move to change those sack numbers. Let’s use Charles Johnson for an example from the panthers, that’s my usual comparison for Lawson. Similar kind of players and it took him a bit to make some impact. I won’t cry if they let Shaq walk but I did find it puzzling not to give him the fifth year since there’s really no reason not to other than you just don’t want him around. Not like the money would impact anything for next offseason. 

IF he has a big year his price is ridiculous for another team or us to sign next offseason. Could of had two years at bargain price against one, IF he improved. 

I’ll root for the guy either here or his next team unless he goes to New England 

[Orlando Tim]

if we were to offer it- of which i have not idea if they will- i wpuld predict 3 years at 15 million total with 4 million of it up front.

[Reader]

1 hour ago, billsbackto81 said:

It would "Look" premature.

 

A little off topic but I don't feel like starting a Thread.

 

Who was the better player heading into FA?   Shaw Lawson or Preston Brown?

 

I find them both to be to very similar in the sense that their both serviceable but not spectacular.

 

I remember an FA article that described Preston as "average in every sense of the word". I think Shaq does certain things above average while others medoicre or below average while as whole I feel like his play is average-solid. Overall though I think I'd pick Shaq. I don't know what others think.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, CuddyDark said:

If I'm Lawson I wouldn't resign with the Bills. I think he's a good player but will never been respected or seen as a good player here, mostly because Bills fans don't understand football or his role. He's not supposed to have ten sacks. People need to get over the sack numbers. Also I think he should go to a 34 team and play one gap 5tech like he did in college.

 

Yup.  He belongs on a 3-4 team.  That’s what he was drafted to do here.  We have just kept him around because he’s serviceable at a premium position and we’ve needed him.  He’ll go to a team where he fits and is therefore more valuable. 

[thebandit27]

He's probably going to want 50% more than William Gholston's 2017 deal that worked out to be ~$5.5M AAV.

 

Since that's the case, Shaq's market value is probably something like $8M AAV.

 

Of course, it's pointless to talk about it at this time, because what he does in 2019 will affect his value tremendously.

 

And, of course, we have no idea what's going to happen with the CBA post 2020, so that's got the potential to change the contract landscape significantly as well.

[Rocky Landing]

Probably have a different team's name on the top of it...

 

 

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Rocky Landing

[Simon Says]

4 hours ago, Rigotz said:

He will play well this year because he seems to be a self-centered guy (based on following his instagram for several years).

Hopefully he plays well so we can trade him for a pick.

 

There is a zero percent chance we extend him. He doesn't fit in with this regime at all. He's a classic Rex guy.

He will be a free agent after this season. You would have to trade him BEFORE that

[billsfan_34]

Like a blank piece of paper. I cant see them bringing him back unless he has a big year. Lawson was drafted too high and has never made an impact that is needed at the DE position. Last year he had a slightly better year than his first few in the league but he is an average at best DE.

[NewEra]

2 years 8 mill.  4 mill gtd

Edited June 20, 2019 by NewEra

[billsfan_34]

3 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

If I'm Lawson I wouldn't resign with the Bills. I think he's a good player but will never been respected or seen as a good player here, mostly because Bills fans don't understand football or his role. He's not supposed to have ten sacks. People need to get over the sack numbers. Also I think he should go to a 34 team and play one gap 5tech like he did in college.

There are many posters on this board that understand football, not all of course. Lawson is average by NFL standards but he was definitely drafted too high- not really his fault. He sets the edge well but is a liability in passing situations. He lacks burst and just doesn’t penetrate. We could use an upgrade for sure.

[Rocky Landing]

3 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

If I'm Lawson I wouldn't resign with the Bills. I think he's a good player but will never been respected or seen as a good player here, mostly because Bills fans don't understand football or his role. He's not supposed to have ten sacks. People need to get over the sack numbers. Also I think he should go to a 34 team and play one gap 5tech like he did in college.

I don't believe this is true. I believe Clemson played a base 4-3 defense while Shaq was there. I remember this being a knock on Rex that he overreached for a 4-3 DE to play in his 3-4 defense.

[CuddyDark]

25 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I don't believe this is true. I believe Clemson played a base 4-3 defense while Shaq was there. I remember this being a knock on Rex that he overreached for a 4-3 DE to play in his 3-4 defense.

What you believe is irrelevant. It's not to difficult to look it up. He played 34 RDE and 34 ROLB for Clemson.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/shaq-lawson?id=2555252

 

Quote

Clemson played him at 5-­technique and standing up on the outside.

 

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, Rigotz said:

He will play well this year because he seems to be a self-centered guy (based on following his instagram for several years).

Hopefully he plays well so we can trade him for a pick.

 

There is a zero percent chance we extend him. He doesn't fit in with this regime at all. He's a classic Rex guy.

Trade unlikely as he will hit FA.

Hopefully he plays well and we can make a deal. he is pretty solid. a bit boring perhaps ?

 better than C Kelsey though

[Rocky Landing]

2 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

What you believe is irrelevant. It's not to difficult to look it up. He played 34 RDE and 34 ROLB for Clemson.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/shaq-lawson?id=2555252

 

 

 

Still, Clemson did play a base 4-3.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Clemson_Tigers_football_team

Snarkiness not really necessary, although I do realize it is your schtick.

[CuddyDark]

2 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Still, Clemson did play a base 4-3.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Clemson_Tigers_football_team

Snarkiness not really necessary, although I do realize it is your schtick.

Lawson played 34 RDE and 34 ROLB for Clemson.

[Mc1320]

$0 for 0 years

[nucci]

If they didn't pick up his option, why would they bother offering him a new deal? Same thing they did with Sammy

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

If I'm Lawson I wouldn't resign with the Bills. I think he's a good player but will never been respected or seen as a good player here, mostly because Bills fans don't understand football or his role. He's not supposed to have ten sacks. People need to get over the sack numbers. Also I think he should go to a 34 team and play one gap 5tech like he did in college.

Point taken.
Rex drafted him for his genius defense. and put him in a role he had not played before

 Drafted a seriously injured player.
He looks better in McD 4 -3 for sure and can move inside. played steady last year.
 Kid was behind the 8 ball from the get go.

It sure seems folks are still evaluating him with a bias towards his draft.
 

 try to take a fresh set of eyeballs this year and watch him.

Kid can play football.

 but yes,

 in his own best interest he should move on. Bills will hopefully create a heavy competition at both RE and LE and or "edge "

1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

There are many posters on this board that understand football, not all of course. Lawson is average by NFL standards but he was definitely drafted too high- not really his fault. He sets the edge well but is a liability in passing situations. He lacks burst and just doesn’t penetrate. We could use an upgrade for sure.

solid rotational player ?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

2 years 8 mill.  4 mill gtd

 

 

...declining his 5th was a pretty clear message.....he knows this is "do or die" whether on the FA market or a re-signing opportunity with Bflo....even if he performs as thought to be advertised when drafted, I doubt there will be a long long of suitors to sign him as a UFA......so if you could grab him at your numbers or perhaps 2 years, $10 mil with $5 mil guaranteed as a rotational guy who knows the system, would you pull the trigger?

[metbill]

I would offer him nothing and let him walk to another team.  I would not even care if he went to the Jets, Pats, or Phins as I am not worried about seeing him on the other side of the ball in the future.  Bills just need to realize these players from Clemson seem to under achieve at this level as of late.  Maybe they use them up and spit them out as they all seem to have some sort of nagging injury upon leaving.