Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[JESSEFEFFER]

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB.  Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it.  If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review?  IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their  correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. 

 

Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers:

 

1) being the leader in depth to target

2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes

3) being near the top in throws under pressure

 

I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot.  Here's the link to the latters' story:

 

newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz"

 

I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts.  But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context.  It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to why it happened.

 

I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL.  Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 25, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Royale with Cheese]

I bet he won’t say it to my face!

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I bet he won’t say it to my face!

 

...I wouldn't either.........

[Logic]

As others on Twitter pointed out, he didn't state his opinion with much conviction. By saying "If he succeeds, its because they put enough talent around him", he's hedging his bets. He can now claim to be "right" either way.

Also, try as I might, I can't seem to find any background info about Aaron Schatz. I get that he runs Football Outsiders, which as far as I can tell is just an analytics website. What is it about Schatz that qualifies him to know what he's looking at any more than any other football fan? It's great that he can extrapolate numerical data or spot statistical trends, but why should I believe that he knows how to evaluate quarterback play any better than my Aunt Marcy?

[HappyDays]

Did anyone else get a brain aneurysm trying to read this?

 

“I’ve noticed a lot of optimism about the moves that the Bills have made in the offseason," Schatz said. "That they’ve made a lot of good moves. And here’s the thing, I think they’ve made a lot of good moves. The problem is that where they were going to be before those moves is not as good as I think where Bills fans think they would be before those moves. So even after making a lot of good moves, I’m not that optimistic about them.”

[MJS]

I guess it's possible, but I see something different. I watched every snap and I am pretty convinced that he can win in the NFL.

 

I mean, just watching week 17 should tell you that he has it in him. His completion percentage was up, he scored 5 total TD's, and he looked darn efficient doing it (minus the bad INT early on).

[ROCBillsBeliever]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Did anyone else get a brain aneurysm trying to read this?

 

 

 

 

That reads like a bowel movement... he must really know his s*** ???

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

I saw this article this morning. The guy bashed the selection last season and he simply will not give it up.

He writes on the negative side and can't function as an adult.

 

 

...prolly Sullivan's nephew.......

[Punching Bag]

10 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

I saw this article this morning. The guy bashed the selection last season and he simply will not give it up.

He writes on the negative side and can't function as an adult.

Sounds like some regular posters here.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, Limeaid said:

Sounds like some regular posters here.

...c'mon...name some names to liven up Saturday..............

[JESSEFEFFER]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Did anyone else get a brain aneurysm trying to read this?

 

 

 

I'll take a shot.  We want to believe that Josh's improvement, the defenses' all around play and their 4 and 4 record at the close have the Bills starting the off season as a team in the middle third of the league.  He's saying that defensive performance is more random, Josh doesn't have it in him and they really entered the off season as bottom dwelling team.  Thus, all the offseason improvements, while he likes them, do not get them a shot into the upper third of the league.

Edited May 25, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Doc]

Opinions...

[ExWNYer]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

As others on Twitter pointed out, he didn't state his opinion with much conviction. By saying "If he succeeds, its because they put enough talent around him", he's hedging his bets. He can now claim to be "right" either way.

Also, try as I might, I can't seem to find any background info about Aaron Schatz. I get that he runs Football Outsiders, which as far as I can tell is just an analytics website. What is it about Schatz that qualifies him to know what he's looking at any more than any other football fan? It's great that he can extrapolate numerical data or spot statistical trends, but why should I believe that he knows how to evaluate quarterback play any better than my Aunt Marcy?

 

3 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

I saw this article this morning. The guy bashed the selection last season and he simply will not give it up.

He writes on the negative side and can't function as an adult.

 

It's interesting to note that those in the national media who think the Bills are going to be bad think that Allen won't be any good (like Schatz) and those who think the Bills are on the rise think that Allen will be a good QB. Regardless of their stance, each side has seemed to draw a line in the sand based on their predetermined convictions and they are not going to budge. They will either crow when they are right or ignore it (and try to avoid eating crow) when they are wrong. Such is life in the 'hot take' world of social media. FWIW, Aaron Schatz is a frequent guest on 'Schopp & the Bulldog' and Mike Schopp worships at the altar of Schatz. 

[Just Joshin']

This should be said about any QB drafted last year, not just Allen.  None of them have proved they are a franchise QB today.

 

That said, Allen showed enough to provide evidence he can develop into that player.  I would rather have him at this point than Rosen or Jackson.  He is about where Darnold is while Mayfield would be the leader.  Year 2 will provide additional evidence for all these players as they continue to develop.

[Logic]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Not sure why people get up in arms over all this stuff. 

 

These guys do a lot of research on these players and then give a prediction based on their research. It's a nice job to have because it doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, they'll still have a job.... it's just his opinion on a player that happened to be picked by that Bills. It has no barring on if Allen will be successful or not so I never understood why people got pissed over this stuff.

 

 

This is one of those rare occasions where I agree completely with ScottLaw.

Bills fans are too sensitive about people criticizing Josh Allen. Let the man prove them right or wrong with his play on the field. We don't need to ruthlessly attack anyone who dares to disagree with the notion that Allen is a guaranteed elite player.

[ExWNYer]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

This is one of those rare occasions where I agree completely with ScottLaw.

Bills fans are too sensitive about people criticizing Josh Allen. Let the man prove them right or wrong with his play on the field. We don't need to ruthlessly attack anyone who dares to disagree with the notion that Allen is a guaranteed elite player.

 

While the bolded may be true (and probably true for any fan base), I don't see any of that in this thread thus far...at least nobody who is "up in arms". Just discussion.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...will ALWAYS be doubters about him as well as others in the class....pfft.......I'm more inclined to read critical yet objective assessments by former NFL QB's (the stature of their careers is meaningless) as in Simms, Boomer, Dilfer, "Coach" Palmer or even our new "Coach" Dorsey and what they say, whether good, bad or somewhere in between (more than likely laying out pros and cons)....they are STILL connected to the game versus worrying about some urinalist typing away from under his desk......

[Hapless Bills Fan]

48 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB. (....)

I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL.  Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

 

I wish someone asked Aaron if he sees Josh Rosen as an NFL starting QB.  As I recall, last year he was a big fan and one of the "Bills drafted wrong Josh" prognosticators.

Wanted the Dolphins to draft Josh Rosen.

 

Overall though, yes, you're right - Josh Allen is like a litmus test for "college analytics" vs "old-school scouting".

41 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

That reads like a bowel movement... he must really know his s*** ???

 

Do you spend much of your time seeking reading material in dog parks and commodes or ??

 

I mean, I get the point - it reads like "word vomit"  - I just found the analogy curious.  Outside of gastroenterology, who reads bowel movements for a living?

 

 

[Marv's Neighbor]

Have to hope he's all wrong but it is only his 2nd season, and we'll see.

[1billsfan]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Not sure why people get up in arms over all this stuff. 

 

These guys do a lot of research on these players and then give a prediction based on their research. It's a nice job to have because it doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, they'll still have a job.... it's just his opinion on a player that happened to be picked by that Bills. It has no barring on if Allen will be successful or not so I never understood why people got pissed over this stuff.

 

 

 

I generally agree with this notion...however, the tone and exactness of his comments regarding Allen smacks of total disrespect regarding what this kid accomplished last season. 

 

Josh Allen will have a great platform to prove the doubters (though "haters" seems like a more appropriate term for this guy) wrong with the first game of the season being played on the road in the biggest media market on the planet.

 

 

[Malazan]

So he has no details...no in depth information on why and doesn't really give a reason at all...so clickbait

 

but it now has it's own thread because some poster here couldn't help himself so I guess it worked..

[C.Biscuit97]

34 minutes ago, Doc said:

Opinions...

I know right.  If Allen was on the Fins, what would Bills fans’ opinions be after being a 56% passer in a lower D1 conference where he wasn’t on any of the All MWC teams; completed 52% of his passers his rookie year with 10 tds and 12 ints?  I’m sure we would talking about how the Fins have a stud franchise qb. ?

 

right or wrong, I try to be consistent.  I didn’t want the Bills to draft Allen. I hate that I’m not blindly behind because I have serious doubts.  I know he is a hard work and seems to have a good head on his shoulders. I know people who have meant him and said he’s a good dude.  But I need to see him win with arm.  I think the Bills could have gotten him a better OC (I’m amazed how sold everyone is on Daboll) and a legit 1 type receiver.  I do like the improved oline and he plays with a good defense to keep him in games.

 

but to sum it up, if Allen wasn’t a Bill, fans wont be sold either (also silly to be sold on a qb after one year).  I hate that I still have the doubts and there aren’t many things that I would love to be wrong on than Allen.  But sorry. After years of defending every Bills qb (compare Losman and Favre’s 1st 2 years), I need to see it.  So do non Bills fans. And hopefully, we do. 

[NickelCity]

1 minute ago, 1billsfan said:

 

I generally agree with this notion...however, the tone and exactness of his comments regarding Allen smacks of total disrespect regarding what this kid accomplished last season. 

 

Josh Allen will have a great platform to prove the doubters (though "haters" seems like a more appropriate term for this guy) wrong with the first game of the season being played on the road in the biggest media market on the planet.

 

 

 

I'm glad we have Allen and am optimistic he can develop, but I wouldn't say he "accomplished" anything so cut and dry that opinions can't reasonably vary. 

 

The expectations for him are crazy high this season. I'm guilty of feeding that at times, myself. But my point is that the jury is still very much out and one could have watched all the snaps last season and have real concerns. Not "he's awful" concerns, but he needs to significantly alter portions of his game to be what we want him to be. I choose to believe he'll get there.

[C.Biscuit97]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I wish someone asked Aaron if he sees Josh Rosen as an NFL starting QB.  As I recall, last year he was a big fan and one of the "Bills drafted wrong Josh" prognosticators.

Wanted the Dolphins to draft Josh Rosen.

 

Overall though, yes, you're right - Josh Allen is like a litmus test for "college analytics" vs "old-school scouting".

I freely admit I wanted Rosen and didn’t want Allen.  I think both guys played on bad offenses and I do think Rosen has it worse.  They had very similar passing stats with Allen being a far superior runner.

 

but it is beyond stupid to make any concrete judgments about either guy’s future after one season on a losing team.  I also would struggle to respect an “analyst” who change their opinion based on a season.  Either way, it’s pretty awesome that the division is Brady vs. the 3 1st rounders (and Fitz).  Maybe the division can be interesting for the first time in forever. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

3 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

So he has no details...no in depth information on why and doesn't really give a reason at all...so clickbait

 

but it now has it's own thread because some poster here couldn't help himself so I guess it worked..

I am quite sure he has some basis for his opinion. That is his job, opnions based on numerical analysis.  Schopp and Bulldog did not ask him for his reasons which would have made the interview more interesting, imo. 

 

As for "clickbait" I doubt it applies to a WGR interview and an article in NYUPSTATE by Ryan Talbot. Those links do Aaron Schatz no benefit.  He's an interesting listen because his opinions, although just as flawed as those from anyone else, are at least based on something tangible.

[C.Biscuit97]

35 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...will ALWAYS be doubters about him as well as others in the class....pfft.......I'm more inclined to read critical yet objective assessments by former NFL QB's (the stature of their careers is meaningless) as in Simms, Boomer, Dilfer, "Coach" Palmer or even our new "Coach" Dorsey and what they say, whether good, bad or somewhere in between (more than likely laying out pros and cons)....they are STILL connected to the game versus worrying about some urinalist typing away from under his desk......

With all due respect, besides playing, have those former QBs shown ability to scout qbs?  John Elway, up there for best qb ever IMo, has been awful at evaluating qbs.  Jim Kelly wanted Tebow.  Michael Jordan has one of the worst franchises in the nba. Probably the best qb evaluator in the nfl is a former college linemen and Kool Aid man lookalike Andy Reid.  

 

Honestly, sometimes former players opinions are worse than nerds who get hurt playing flag football. 

Edited May 25, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[K-9]

Aaron Schatz can kiss my atz.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

[Augie]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Did anyone else get a brain aneurysm trying to read this?

 

 

 

That does not instill confidence regarding his opinion.

 

About anything. 

 

 

.

Edited May 25, 2019 by Augie

[HOUSE]

Aqaron Schatz was a sports writer for WBRU in Providence RI and worked for The Boston Globe

Broadcast area‎: ‎Southern New England . I could have guessed that one..

 

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/aaron-schatz/

 

Edited May 25, 2019 by HOUSE

[YoloinOhio]

I’m pretty sure Josh is used to people not believing in him. It’s been that way his whole life. It’s part of what drives him so hard. He was never coddled, never propped up as a sure thing. I don’t see this as a bad thing, and I hope someone sends him the interview 

[BarleyNY]

32 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I freely admit I wanted Rosen and didn’t want Allen.  I think both guys played on bad offenses and I do think Rosen has it worse.  They had very similar passing stats with Allen being a far superior runner.

 

but it is beyond stupid to make any concrete judgments about either guy’s future after one season on a losing team.  I also would struggle to respect an “analyst” who change their opinion based on a season.  Either way, it’s pretty awesome that the division is Brady vs. the 3 1st rounders (and Fitz).  Maybe the division can be interesting for the first time in forever. 

 

I agree.  People have to understand that these analytics based guys are just talking odds in every case.  Schatz simply talked about how he viewed a player predraft and that he hadn’t seen enough in that player’s rookie season to change his mind.  He never even said that Allen couldn’t be a quality QB, just that he hadn’t seen it.  That’s fair.  Heck, he’s right.

 

Allen showed some flashes last season - and a ton of heart - but he’s got a lot more to prove before any of us should anoint him a franchise QB.  I’ll be rooting for him, but I’m not going to get ahead of things.  I’m not going to cherry pick a game or other data and I’m going to rate him exactly like I would if he were the QB of the Jets, Vikings or any other team.  He isn’t going to get bonus points for being a Bill and I’m rooting for him, or because I want him to succeed or because I know his back story.  He’ll have to earn it.

Edited May 25, 2019 by BarleyNY

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

With all due respect, besides playing, have those former QBs shown ability to scout qbs?  John Elway, up there for best qb ever IMo, has been awful at evaluating qbs.  Jim Kelly wanted Tebow.  Michael Jordan has one of the worst franchises in the nba. Probably the best qb evaluator in the nfl is a former college linemen and Kool Aid man lookalike Andy Reid.  

 

Honestly, sometimes former players opinions are worse than nerds who get hurt playing flag football. 

 

...NEVER said all...some but NOT ALL....friends of mine used to fly out to play in Elway's annual charity golf tourney......said he was a major egotistical, stand offish "Richard" and then some.....so how it that Denver QB situation doing John Boy?.. ...Kelly?.....sure a diehard Bflo fan but sometimes his yap gets the better of his brain....any news on his Bills Buying Group yet?....Simms, Dilfer, Palmer, Dorsey, etc remain respectfully connected for a reason....

Edited May 25, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Hes just jealous of Joshs big hands. 

[Jay_Fixit]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...I wouldn't either.........

He’s 5’9 and wears flip flops in public.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, Jay_Fixit said:

He’s 5’9 and wears flip flops in public.

 

 

 

...heard pink WITH heels......uh oh............

[JESSEFEFFER]

12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I agree.  People have to understand that these analytics based guys are just talking odds in every case.  Schatz simply talked about how he viewed a player predraft and that he hadn’t seen enough in that player’s rookie season to change his mind.  He never even said that Allen couldn’t be a quality QB, just that he hadn’t seen it.  That’s fair.  Heck, he’s right.

 

Allen showed some flashes last season - and a ton of heart - but he’s got a lot more to prove before any of us should anoint him a franchise QB.  I’ll be rooting for him, but I’m not going to get ahead of things.  I’m not going to cherry pick game or data and I’m going to rate him exactly like I would if he were the QB of the Jets, Vikings or any other team.  He isn’t going to get bonus points for being a Bill and I’m rooting for him or because I want him to succeed or because I know his back story.  He’ll have to earn it.

 

Seen is the operative word.  Is he looking at his raw stats or is he actually watching him play?  Schopp did not ask him.  The basis for his unchanged view of his projection into the NFL is the most interesting part of the opninion and Schopp let it go unanswered.  Numbers need meaning and context.  

 

 

 

Josh's scramble runs were analytically more productive than any other QB's checkdown passes.  No one completes 100% of them for over 10 ypa.

 

Josh's TD runs limited his passing TDs.  Is there any more value to a passing TD than a running TD?

 

The factors listed in the OP absolutely make completion % a lower number.  I would want Schatz to put these into some context (rookie year, depth of target, drops, spikes/throwaways, % throws under pressure.)

 

 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I agree.  People have to understand that these analytics based guys are just talking odds in every case.  Schatz simply talked about how he viewed a player predraft and that he hadn’t seen enough in that player’s rookie season to change his mind.  He never even said that Allen couldn’t be a quality QB, just that he hadn’t seen it.  That’s fair.  Heck, he’s right.

 

Allen showed some flashes last season - and a ton of heart - but he’s got a lot more to prove before any of us should anoint him a franchise QB.  I’ll be rooting for him, but I’m not going to get ahead of things.  I’m not going to cherry pick a game or other data and I’m going to rate him exactly like I would if he were the QB of the Jets, Vikings or any other team.  He isn’t going to get bonus points for being a Bill and I’m rooting for him, or because I want him to succeed or because I know his back story.  He’ll have to earn it.

 

Excellent take. 

[dubs]

At this point in Josh’s career and based on what he did last year, there is absolutely no certainty on where his career will take him. He could be great, he could bust. Last year he showed a lot of promise but there are obviously still a lot of areas for improvement. 

 

But it on today’s world, everything gets put into a binary and Josh Allen is no exception. Pundits like Schatz must have an opinion and it must be one extreme or the other. Schatz, being on team nerd, is clearly going to fall into the Josh sucks camp. 

 

Edited May 25, 2019 by dubs

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Did anyone else get a brain aneurysm trying to read this?

 

“I’ve noticed a lot of optimism about the moves that the Bills have made in the offseason," Schatz said. "That they’ve made a lot of good moves. And here’s the thing, I think they’ve made a lot of good moves. The problem is that where they were going to be before those moves is not as good as I think where Bills fans think they would be before those moves. So even after making a lot of good moves, I’m not that optimistic about them.”

 

 

So this guy who is a poster child for Orwellian doublethink is believable why?

 

Football outsiders should just stick to crunching numbers and let those with working grey matter make sense of them. They would have more credibility if this guy never shares his conclusions again.