Kipers predictions for last year Round 1

[Da webster guy]

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

Edited February 12, 2019 by Da webster guy

[Alphadawg7]

43 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

Kipers success rate is about as bad as they come.  If Skip Bayless knocked up Stephen A. Smith at the NFL Draft, Mel Kiper would be their love baby.  

[Aussie Joe]

Looks a little early in the process..it’s before free agency..

 

I think his Top half was more accurate than the bottom half..

[Spiderweb]

Kiper, while longer being a polarizing pundit, is being held to an impossible standard. Too may variables to consider. Teams drafting BOA or need. Trades of draft choices and players. What counts is the quality of the selections he makes, far more than does a specific team get a specific player that might have been projected to them. Hell, let's throw logic, reasoning and intelligence out the window and hang him. The very same goes for all the pundits, most of which do have far more knowledge, information, and tape on players than any here. Don't feed to mob mentality.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

You're right, they're all off the mark, because what they're attempting to do is statistically impossible.

 

Back when he was submitting his mocks to the Huddle Report, Kiper had a five-year record that was in the top five of all mock-drafters. He's very good at what he does.

 

A good mock draft will have guys in the right neighborhood and a thoughtful look at team needs.

 

Predicting precisely what some one person will do, particularly when they're facing a board that will be different from what the mocker thought it would be ... is impossible. The only way to do well at it is to have sources on the teams feeding you info. And feeding a guy like Kiper or Mayock specifics is a fireable offense. General stuff about who you think is good, mixed in with some red herrings, is common, but actually tell who you'll pick and you'd be gone.

 

 

Edited February 12, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Doc Brown]

That just highlights why you shouldn't even read mock before free agency.  Browns fans were having anxiety attacks that they'd pick Josh Allen for three months.  Heck, I would argue you shouldn't read mock drafts until the day of the draft.

[MDH]

Not sure why anyone cares if someone's mock is "accurate." They don't know who a team is going to take. The thing these pundits should be held accountable for is their assessment of the players.

[BobbyC81]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That just highlights why you shouldn't even read mock before free agency.  Browns fans were having anxiety attacks that they'd pick Josh Allen for three months.  Heck, I would argue you shouldn't read mock drafts until the day of the draft.

 

It always cracks me up when these guys publish a new version of their mock draft when nothing new is going on. 

[cage]

3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Looks a little early in the process..it’s before free agency..

 

I think his Top half was more accurate than the bottom half..

 

Yes very early... also before the Jets trade-up to #3 and the Bills trade to #12 w/ Bengals.

 

Here's his final one.  I don't subscribe to ESPN, so can't see all the pics beyond the first two

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/23317544/final-nfl-mock-draft-2018-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order-32-picks

 

[row_33]

That’s quite an assumption that the NFL team was correct in all 32 draft picks.

 

its like assuming every call by the replay booth was correct and attacking the broadcast rules expert for not predicting what the booth would decide

 

 

 

[BillsFan1988]

Me and a group of my friends play a gm every year in the draft.  We all do a mock has to be turned in on the Monday before the draft. I usually hit on 6 to 7 exact spots. We also have a scoring system in place based on if u get the position the team drafts correctly or if u can predict a trade . It makes the draft like your playing Fantasy football it's very entertaining.  We also grade the top draft gurus out there like the Mayocks, Kipers and McShay . Nearly half of the people playing this gm usually outscore these guys.

 

Scoring system for 1st Rd Mock Draft Game.

5pts - Predict Player in spot with Trade teams need to be picked exactly. 

 

4pts- Predict player in exact draft slot with exact team

 

3pts - Player goes in draft slot doesn't matter if u get the team right. 

 

2pts- Team drafts the position correctly that u predicted . This shows u can correctly predict team needs. 

 

1pt - For each player u have going in the first rd. This is totaled up after the completion of the first rd.  U get 24 players u get 24 out of 32 Pts.  

Edited February 12, 2019 by BillsFan1988

[Blokestradamus]

6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Going back to 2013, I've nailed Dustin Hopkins, Cyrus Kouandjio, John Miller, Reggie Ragland, Matt Milano, Josh Allen, Harrison Phillips & Wyatt Teller.

 

Maybe the team needs to stop listening to me

[WideRightRevenge]

6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

I totally disagree with this take ... he maybe doesn't get the right team .. but he had 80% of the top 10 picks .. (8 for 10) he called Edmunds and Rosen that dropped to picks 11-20 ... my point is ... he's the original ... he created a bunch of cash flow in an industry that now has a bunch of copy cats (imitation is the sincerest form of flattery) ... mad props to Mel ... he provides insight to players I don't see often .. I'll take Mel and mocks any day in February when there is no football (all due respect to the new league on CBS).

 

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

Um ... that wasn’t his final mock. He got 4 right. Given trades, it’s hard to predict a whole lot more than that. https://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/nfl-mock-draft-2018-picks-mel-kiper-mike-mayock-todd-mcshay-20180427.html

[SoCal Deek]

Given the woeful success rate of most teams with their First Round pick maybe they should save a whole lot of time and effort and just listen to Mel!  How bad could it be?

[Kirby Jackson]

I’m always more interested in how many guys were mocked within about 5-10 spots from where they were selected. That tells me that the guy doing it has a pretty good handle on the value of certain players. There is so much movement that you can’t necessarily pick the teams. If you look though at the players mocked between like 5-20 that SHOULD give you a sense for the guys that the Bills will be looking at if they stay where they are.

[Orlando Tim]

8 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

I Would give him a break since so mich occurred between this mock and the real draft. Lots of trades and teams signing free agents- mock drafts now simply tell you a ball park of when a player will be drafted.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

For Clarity....  Is this in reference to the Person and the Team he guessed? 

 

Or

 

Does this include the guys he thought should be in specific rounds?

[PetermansRedemption]

Yikes. That mock would have been horrendous for the Bills ?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

# 1 Cleveland Browns   >>  Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming   ??

 

But most "experts" had Josh 4th best QB 

 

-1 for Allen to CLE 

 

+ 1 Allen a first round QB.  

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

this is why I have ZERO interest in reading anyone's "mock draft".

 

wake me up in April.

 

[gobills1212]

2 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

I totally disagree with this take ... he maybe doesn't get the right team .. but he had 80% of the top 10 picks .. (8 for 10) he called Edmunds and Rosen that dropped to picks 11-20 ... my point is ... he's the original ... he created a bunch of cash flow in an industry that now has a bunch of copy cats (imitation is the sincerest form of flattery) ... mad props to Mel ... he provides insight to players I don't see often .. I'll take Mel and mocks any day in February when there is no football (all due respect to the new league on CBS).

 

I gotta agree. When you take a guys 2nd mock and so much is still yet to happen??? Jets were still 6 here!!

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

# 1 Cleveland Browns   >>  Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming   ??

 

But most "experts" had Josh 4th best QB 

 

-1 for Allen to CLE 

 

+ 1 Allen a first round QB.  

Kiper was the original Allen guy.  Not really sure this means anything because in the real draft, the Browns chose Mayfield.  Kiper sucks.

 

there are a bunch of things that suck right now in this country.  But if you need to believe in how awesome America is, look no further than Mel Kiper. Community college education, never played/ coached/ or was in a front office in football in any level.  Yet, he has made millions being a “draft expert” who fans get excited or mad about their team’s draft because of his rankings.  ‘Merica!!!

[dave mcbride]

33 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Kiper was the original Allen guy.  Not really sure this means anything because in the real draft, the Browns chose Mayfield.  Kiper sucks.

 

there are a bunch of things that suck right now in this country.  But if you need to believe in how awesome America is, look no further than Mel Kiper. Community college education, never played/ coached/ or was in a front office in football in any level.  Yet, he has made millions being a “draft expert” who fans get excited or mad about their team’s draft because of his rankings.  ‘Merica!!!

Kiper mocked Mayfield to the Browns in subsequent mocks. Also, don't dis passionate amateurs. They're the people who make life interesting. 

Edited February 12, 2019 by dave mcbride

[C.Biscuit97]

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Kiper mocked Mayfield to the Browns in subsequent mocks. Also, don't dis passionate amateurs. They're the people who make life interesting. 

Kiper was the first national guy I remember hyping up Allen. 

 

And i I love the mocks and the stuff before the draft. I also respect Kiper as a business man because he has no actual football background.  But I don’t value his opinion anymore than certain posters on this board.  But salute to him for figuring out how to get back with no actual real skill in player evaluations.

[T master]

WOW how bad is this guy ? I wonder what Mcshay's mock looks like for last year !! Like the coach years ago said "who the hell is Mel Kiper" ?

 

They need to do a show & go back say 10 yrs & see just how many of these guys predictions with their mock drafts have come through but if they did ESPN might be firing them shortly there after !! 

 

Buffalo Barbarian probably has a better percentage of picks than these guys !! ?

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, MDH said:

Not sure why anyone cares if someone's mock is "accurate." They don't know who a team is going to take. The thing these pundits should be held accountable for is their assessment of the players.

 

Kiper is terrible at that too.  He has a long history of ripping teams who pass on guys he says they should take then takes no accountability when said player goes on to be a total bust.  He does this year after year, and it’s why he has about as much respect around the NFL as Skip Bayless.  

 

All mocks are impossible, but it’s the god complex Kiper has about himself and his opinion that make him such a blow hard.  McShay and Mayock don’t get anywhere near the same blow back, and Mayock had enough respect of his analytical abilities that he got a REAL NFL job as a GM now.

 

If Kiper was even half as good as he thinks he is at projecting players, then teams would have been offering him jobs for years.  Instead he is seen as more of a clown across the league like Skip Bayless is.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Kiper was the first national guy I remember hyping up Allen. 

 

And i I love the mocks and the stuff before the draft. I also respect Kiper as a business man because he has no actual football background.  But I don’t value his opinion anymore than certain posters on this board.  But salute to him for figuring out how to get back with no actual real skill in player evaluations.

I say this guardedly, but he is a genuine pro as a television personality. He's more entertaining than the rest of them, and has a real flair for the dramatic. I'm not equating that with good; I'm just saying that he's lasted as long as he has on ESPN because he's a pro at being on TV. 

[aristocrat]

How many of his first rounders went in the first? Was he accurate on that?

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I say this guardedly, but he is a genuine pro as a television personality. He's more entertaining than the rest of them, and has a real flair for the dramatic. I'm not equating that with good; I'm just saying that he's lasted as long as he has on ESPN because he's a pro at being on TV. 

He reminds me of a guy who hosted an show called the apprentice on tv.  I thought the guy was a total joke but it made for interesting tv.  So I’m that regards, I agree about Kiper.

[MJS]

I think part of the problem is the famous mock drafters always have to draw attention to themselves and their mocks by predicting wild things.

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Kiper is terrible at that too.  He has a long history of ripping teams who pass on guys he says they should take then takes no accountability when said player goes on to be a total bust.  He does this year after year, and it’s why he has about as much respect around the NFL as Skip Bayless.  

 

All mocks are impossible, but it’s the god complex Kiper has about himself and his opinion that make him such a blow hard.  McShay and Mayock don’t get anywhere near the same blow back, and Mayock had enough respect of his analytical abilities that he got a REAL NFL job as a GM now.

 

If Kiper was even half as good as he thinks he is at projecting players, then teams would have been offering him jobs for years.  Instead he is seen as more of a clown across the league like Skip Bayless is.

Yup and that sums up why he annoys me.  He blasts teams for not picking guys he has ranked on his board.  And sadly, some fans put value in his opinion.

 

if they view Kiper as entertainment like Dave said, that’s one thing.  But much like most of the sports media, he has no real inside knowledge and has zero accountability.  I do recommend Freezing cold takes on Twitter that holds the media accountable for terrible takes.

[LabattBlue]

51 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Kiper is terrible at that too.  He has a long history of ripping teams who pass on guys he says they should take then takes no accountability when said player goes on to be a total bust.  He does this year after year, and it’s why he has about as much respect around the NFL as Skip Bayless.  

 

All mocks are impossible, but it’s the god complex Kiper has about himself and his opinion that make him such a blow hard.  McShay and Mayock don’t get anywhere near the same blow back, and Mayock had enough respect of his analytical abilities that he got a REAL NFL job as a GM now.

 

If Kiper was even half as good as he thinks he is at projecting players, then teams would have been offering him jobs for years.  Instead he is seen as more of a clown across the league like Skip Bayless is.

I think you are taking the business of draft prognosticators a little to serious.  I look at them as entertainers, and Kiper has entertained me for two decades.

 

One side note...I'm pretty sure if you look at the big board of just ranking the top 20 or 30 prospects(regardless of what team they go to), I'm pretty sure they all have their share of misses...McShay, Mayock, Kiper, etc...

 

In fact, most NFL GM's have 1st round misses during their tenures....and they get paid a lot of money to get it right.

 

 

It's not an exact science.  Never has been...never will be.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Kiper was the original Allen guy.  Not really sure this means anything because in the real draft, the Browns chose Mayfield.  Kiper sucks.

 

there are a bunch of things that suck right now in this country.  But if you need to believe in how awesome America is, look no further than Mel Kiper. Community college education, never played/ coached/ or was in a front office in football in any level.  Yet, he has made millions being a “draft expert” who fans get excited or mad about their team’s draft because of his rankings.  ‘Merica!!!

it's the hair 

 

I'm not a big fan of Mel  

 

I wanted to get more info on whether or not he can judge talent.   Beyond picks one and two   -  Guessing THE guy for every team is impossible.  

 

Edited February 12, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[Nextmanup]

What's worse?  All the garbage put out there these days for consumption?

 

Or the people who actually consume it and then create posts about it here?

 

Mel Kiper has made a career out of being an outsider who knows nothing, but he tells people he knows something...and a lot of folks seem to believe him.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

47 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I think you are taking the business of draft prognosticators a little to serious.  I look at them as entertainers, and Kiper has entertained me for two decades.

 

One side note...I'm pretty sure if you look at the big board of just ranking the top 20 or 30 prospects(regardless of what team they go to), I'm pretty sure they all have their share of misses...McShay, Mayock, Kiper, etc...

 

In fact, most NFL GM's have 1st round misses during their tenures....and they get paid a lot of money to get it right.

 

 

It's not an exact science.  Never has been...never will be.

 

Yes he is an entertainer like Skip Bayless or Stephen A. Smith...not a guy with a track record of accuracy.  If you find entertainment value in him, great, thats his job.  If you look to him for more accurate projections and insight, he's not very good at that compared to others even though he has a god complex about his own opinions like Stephen A. Smith.  

 

And you dont have to tell me the bolded, I proclaim that all the time.  GMs are wrong more than they are right...thats because its impossible to accurately predict the future at a high rate of success.  However, Kiper is no where near the realm of accuracy of successful GM's, yet he blasts them and blasts them hard when they pick a player Kiper doesn't agree with despite the fact those GM's know a massive amount more than Kiper does about Football, player projections and the players themselves.  Kiper has to review the entire college football program...GMs and Scouts spend substantial amounts of more time analyzing specific players they believe will specifically fit into that teams plans, schemes, and philosophy.  So they have a lot more insight when they pick a specific player than Kiper.

 

So once again, the reason Kiper gets so much flack is that he projects this god complex about his opinion over those who are paid a lot of money to know more than him about football, the draft, and the players.  He never accepts any accountability for how wrong he is so frequently, never apologizes to any teams he blasted that prove their pick was the right choice over his.  He just keeps going like he's never been wrong.  

 

Kipers only value is to help casual fans know some names they wouldnt really know if not for people like him.  However, there are more likable and more accurate sources for the same information out there.  Just like sports show hosts Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith...they are entertainment value for those who find their schtick entertaining...but if you want more accurate assessments, more grounded opinions (not rooted in click bait antics), and a deeper discussion of sports there are better choices out there than those two buffoons.  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

I think you are taking the business of draft prognosticators a little to serious.  I look at them as entertainers, and Kiper has entertained me for two decades.

 

One side note...I'm pretty sure if you look at the big board of just ranking the top 20 or 30 prospects(regardless of what team they go to), I'm pretty sure they all have their share of misses...McShay, Mayock, Kiper, etc...

 

In fact, most NFL GM's have 1st round misses during their tenures....and they get paid a lot of money to get it right.

 

 

It's not an exact science.  Never has been...never will be.

Difference between nfl gms and Kiper is they get fired.  If any team actually hired him, he would have been fired in a couple of years.

[Just Joshin']

10 hours ago, MDH said:

Not sure why anyone cares if someone's mock is "accurate." They don't know who a team is going to take. The thing these pundits should be held accountable for is their assessment of the players.

The only thing worse than taking a mock draft serious is rating a mock draft right after the draft.

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yes he is an entertainer like Skip Bayless or Stephen A. Smith...not a guy with a track record of accuracy.  

I don't care for either of the guys you listed.  They are just loudmouths.  IMO...Kiper doesn't give off the same vibe, but clearly you don't like him(your repeated comments about his "God Complex"), so we will agree to disagree.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, cage said:

 

Yes very early... also before the Jets trade-up to #3 and the Bills trade to #12 w/ Bengals.

 

Here's his final one.  I don't subscribe to ESPN, so can't see all the pics beyond the first two

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/23317544/final-nfl-mock-draft-2018-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order-32-picks

 

 

 

The draft would have been so much more pleasing to the ear if it were Saquon Mayfield and Baker Barkley going 1&2.